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CASTLE Laboratory Overview of research and funding model June, 2006 Warren Powell CASTLE Laboratory Princeton University http://www.castlelab.princeton.edu © 2006 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University

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Page 1: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

CASTLE LaboratoryOverview of research and funding model

June, 2006

Warren PowellCASTLE LaboratoryPrinceton University

http://www.castlelab.princeton.edu

© 2006 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University

Page 2: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Air Mobility Command

AirMobility

Command

Fuel

Cargo HandlingRamp Space

Maintenance

Cargo Holding

Page 3: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 4: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

The fractional jet ownership industry

Page 5: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

© NetJets Inc.

Page 6: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Schneider National

Page 7: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 8: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Yellow Freight System

Page 9: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Yellow Freight System

© 2004 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University

Page 10: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

“But the crown jewel of [CEO] Zollars’ and [CIO] Caddell’s technology overhaul has been SYSNET, a state-of-the-art computer system designed jointly by Yellow and CASTLE Lab…at Princeton University.”

“But the crown jewel of [CEO] Zollars’ and [CIO] Caddell’s technology overhaul has been SYSNET, a state-of-the-art computer system designed jointly by Yellow and CASTLE Lab…at Princeton University.”

Page 11: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 12: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 13: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 14: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 15: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 16: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 17: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

© NetJets Inc.

Page 18: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 19: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Schneider National

Page 20: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 21: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 22: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

0

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US_SOLO US_IC US_TEAM

Capacity category

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nue

per W

U

Historical maximumSimulationHistorical minimum

Revenue per WU

Utilization

Model calibration

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US_SOLO US_IC US_TEAM

Capacity category

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zatio

n Historical maximumSimulationHistorical minimum

Historical min and maxCalibrated model

Page 23: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Driver fleet optimization

simulation objective function

1800000

1810000

1820000

1830000

1840000

1850000

1860000

1870000

1880000

1890000

1900000

580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650

# of drivers

s1

s2

s3

s4

s5

s6

s7

s8

s9

s10

avg

pred

Page 24: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Gradients

simulation objective function

1800000

1810000

1820000

1830000

1840000

1850000

1860000

1870000

1880000

1890000

1900000

580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650

# of drivers

s1

s2

s3

s4

s5

s6

s7

s8

s9

s10

avg

pred

Page 25: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research themes

Early ADP/NDP(1980’s – 1990’s)

Markov decision processes (1950’s)

Stochastic approximation methods (1950’s)

Math programming(1950’s)

ADP for high-dimensionalasset management

Machine learningSignal processing

(1990’s ->)

CASLE Labcontribution

CASLE Labcontribution

Page 26: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

The competition

0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

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80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

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25 50 100 250 500 1000 2500 5000

Variations on Bender’s decomposition

Point forecast

Prof

its

Iterations

Page 27: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Algorithmic evaluation

0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

200,000.00

25 50 100 250 500 1000 2500 5000

Variations on Bender’s decomposition

Approximate DP

Point forecast

Prof

its

Iterations

Page 28: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Algorithmic evaluationPercent from optimal 100 iterations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

SD L-shaped CUPPS SPAR

10 locations25 locations50 locations100 locations

10

20

30

40

0

Percent over optimal after 100 iterations

Increasing problem size

Benders ADP

Perc

ent e

rror

Page 29: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 30: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research

Application areas» Planning and control technologies for real-time

management of complex systems• Commercial freight transportation

– United Parcel Service (largest small parcel network)– Yellow/Roadway Corporation (largest less-than-truckload

motor carrier)– Schneider National – (largest truckload operation)

• Military operations – U.S. and Canadian Air Force

• Electric power– PJM Interconnection – (largest regional transmission

organization)• R&D portfolio management for energy research

– Lawrence Livermore

Page 31: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research

Dimensions of research» Theory

• Proofs of convergence of algorithms• Maximizing rate of convergence• Properties of models

» Laboratory experimentation• Accelerating the speed of the algorithms• Evaluating solution quality

» Field experimentation• Does it scale to real applications?• Is the modeling and algorithmic methodology robust?

Page 32: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research

Research highlights since 1990 (when CASTLE Lab was founded):» $10+ million in research funding» 67 journal articles accepted for publication

• Operations Research, Management Science, Transportation Science,Mathematics of Operations Research, Mathematical Programming, Networks, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Informs Journal on Computing, Operations Research Letters, Naval Research Logistics, European Journal of Operations Research

» 4 invited book chapters for the society-sponsored series Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science

» 1 edited volume; book in preparation.» Chaired NSF workshop on Approximate Dynamic Programming

and Reinforcement Learning.» Elected Fellow of Institute for Operations Research and the

Management Sciences» 97 invited talks» 100+ conference presentations

Page 33: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research

Graduate students» 14 Ph.D.’s:

• Academic positions– Cornell University (Operations Research)– University of Pennsylvania (Systems Engineering)– Iowa State (Industrial Engineering)– London School of Economics– Samford College (Dept of Mathematics)– University of Toronto (Industrial Engineering)– City University of New York (Civil Engineering)– Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Brazil

• Research positions– Princeton University– Lawrence Livermore– Bell Labs– IBM Watson Research Center

» 7 M.S.E.’s

Page 34: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

ResearchAwards for graduate student research:

» Winner, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Tassio Carvalho, Dissertation title: “Dynamic Control of Spatial Resource Allocation Problems", 1996.

» Winner, George Dantzig Prize for the best dissertation in Operations Research, won by Raymond K.-L. Cheung, Dissertation title: “Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities, with Application to the Stochastic Dynamic Vehicle Allocation Problem", 1994.

» Honorable mention, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Raymond K.-L. Cheung, Dissertation title: “Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities, with Application to the Stochastic Dynamic Vehicle Allocation Problem", 1993.

» Winner, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by LinosFrantzeskakis, Dissertation title: "Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities: Solution Methods and Applications", 1990.

» Honorable Mention, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Yiannis Koskosidis, Dissertation title: "Optimization-Based Models and Algorithms for Routing and Scheduling with Time Window Constraints", 1988.

» Honorable Mention, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Hugo Simao, Dissertation title: "Numerical, Discrete Time Simulation of Transportation Queueing Networks", 1987.

Page 35: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Testimonials

Email from Swift Transportation (largest publicly held truckload motor carrier), April 6, 2006.

[email protected] wrote:>>> Hello Warren,>> You may not remember me but I did some work with you on dynamic truckload> decision support systems in the early 90's. I [am] with Swift Transportation the> largest publically traded truck load carrier in America.>> I'm looking for commercially available dss based on your research. Can you> direct me?>> Craig Littzen>>

[email protected] wrote:>>> Hello Warren,>> You may not remember me but I did some work with you on dynamic truckload> decision support systems in the early 90's. I [am] with Swift Transportation the> largest publically traded truck load carrier in America.>> I'm looking for commercially available dss based on your research. Can you> direct me?>> Craig Littzen>>

Page 36: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Testimonials

Email from AFOSR program officer (Juan Vasquez)

Page 37: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 38: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 39: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600
Page 40: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

“Transitions” documented on AFOSR grant:

Page 41: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Technology transfer

Working with faculty startups» University rules limit ability to

participate in enterprises which relate to our research.

» Companies cannot fund further research at the university.

» “Awkward” having staff from these companies visiting the university.

» Limits our ability to continue to work with these companies to develop technologies that are not quite ready.

Partner companies» Princeton Consultants (no

affiliation with any Princeton faculty).

Princeton Transportation Consulting Group

Page 42: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Funding models

1981-1989» Research model: professor working with grad students» NSF adopts policy of joint projects with industry» Funding: NSF, NSF/PYI, industrial contracts

• PYI award provided for $37.5k of industry matching funds» Research areas – optimization models for freight transportation.

• Planning models for less-than-truckload trucking• Operational models for real-time planning in truckload trucking• Stochastic programming for fleet management• Routing and scheduling of vehicles

» Programming deliverables• WBP served as primary programmer• Some student programming

Page 43: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Funding models

1990-2006» Research model: CASTLE Lab

• Technical staff to perform programming– Dr. Hugo Simao– Dr. Belgacem Bouzaiene-Ayari– Dr. Abraham George

• Graduate students for fundamental research» Funding:

• AFOSR ~$140k per year• Air Force Contract on Knowledge Networks (with Savas Dayanik)• Occasional NSF grant• Industrial sponsors ~$400k - ~$500k per year

– United Parcel Service– Schneider National– Norfolk Southern Railroad– Princeton Consultants (Netjets)

» Research focus: • Stochastic optimization models for complex operational problems

Page 44: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Funding

National Science Foundation» 1980’s: “We do not fund research, we bless it.”» Today: funding limited to $80k per year per PI.» Steve Nash (NSF Program director): “We cannot get

proposals for high impact research” (spoken at NSF workshop, April, 2006).

Air Force Office of Scientific Research» Currently receiving $140k per year. Currently

supporting a post-doc (Abraham George).

Page 45: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research expenditures

Total

Total expenditures (ORFE and CASTLE Lab)

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

Year

Expe

nditu

res

(mill

ions

)

ORFECastle Lab

Page 46: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Research expenditures

Per faculty

CASTLE exp. vs. ORFE exp. / faculty

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

$ m

illio

ns Castle LabExp/faculty

Page 47: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

History

Consulting retainers» Began in 1990 at the suggestion of department chair

(Pinder)» Designed to cover:

• Miscellaneous consulting requests related to the adoption of the research within the company

• Noncompete/confidentiality agreements» Carefully documented on conflict of interest statements

each year since 1990:• Reviewed by four different department chairs

» Summarized in memo to Dean James Wei» Reviewed by Dobkin/Klawe/Cinlar/Christy in 2003.

• Adjustment made to consulting payments made to Hugo and Belgacem.

Page 48: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Disclosures

Page 49: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Disclosures

2003 letter from Dean Dobkin:

Page 50: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Disclosures

Comment by colleague in chemical engineering on the topic of retainers:

» “I have those with all my industrial sponsors”

Remark by Dean Dobkin to Erhan Cinlar during 2003 review:

» “Half the faculty in engineering must have these agreements”

Page 51: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Disclosures

Approved scope of work for UPS:

Proposed scope of work for all current sponsors:

Page 52: Castle Lab - Research and funding model June 22 2006 · Revenue per WU Historical maximum Simulation Historical minimum Revenue per WU Utilization Model calibration 0 200 400 600

Disclosures

Annual letter from DOF:

» My activities have been clearly documented for 15 years and reviewed by four different chairs!