castle lab - research and funding model june 22 2006 · revenue per wu historical maximum...
TRANSCRIPT
CASTLE LaboratoryOverview of research and funding model
June, 2006
Warren PowellCASTLE LaboratoryPrinceton University
http://www.castlelab.princeton.edu
© 2006 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University
Air Mobility Command
AirMobility
Command
Fuel
Cargo HandlingRamp Space
Maintenance
Cargo Holding
The fractional jet ownership industry
© NetJets Inc.
Schneider National
Yellow Freight System
Yellow Freight System
© 2004 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University
“But the crown jewel of [CEO] Zollars’ and [CIO] Caddell’s technology overhaul has been SYSNET, a state-of-the-art computer system designed jointly by Yellow and CASTLE Lab…at Princeton University.”
“But the crown jewel of [CEO] Zollars’ and [CIO] Caddell’s technology overhaul has been SYSNET, a state-of-the-art computer system designed jointly by Yellow and CASTLE Lab…at Princeton University.”
© NetJets Inc.
Schneider National
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
US_SOLO US_IC US_TEAM
Capacity category
Reve
nue
per W
U
Historical maximumSimulationHistorical minimum
Revenue per WU
Utilization
Model calibration
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
US_SOLO US_IC US_TEAM
Capacity category
Utili
zatio
n Historical maximumSimulationHistorical minimum
Historical min and maxCalibrated model
Driver fleet optimization
simulation objective function
1800000
1810000
1820000
1830000
1840000
1850000
1860000
1870000
1880000
1890000
1900000
580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650
# of drivers
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
s6
s7
s8
s9
s10
avg
pred
Gradients
simulation objective function
1800000
1810000
1820000
1830000
1840000
1850000
1860000
1870000
1880000
1890000
1900000
580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650
# of drivers
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
s6
s7
s8
s9
s10
avg
pred
Research themes
Early ADP/NDP(1980’s – 1990’s)
Markov decision processes (1950’s)
Stochastic approximation methods (1950’s)
Math programming(1950’s)
ADP for high-dimensionalasset management
Machine learningSignal processing
(1990’s ->)
CASLE Labcontribution
CASLE Labcontribution
The competition
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
200,000.00
25 50 100 250 500 1000 2500 5000
Variations on Bender’s decomposition
Point forecast
Prof
its
Iterations
Algorithmic evaluation
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
200,000.00
25 50 100 250 500 1000 2500 5000
Variations on Bender’s decomposition
Approximate DP
Point forecast
Prof
its
Iterations
Algorithmic evaluationPercent from optimal 100 iterations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SD L-shaped CUPPS SPAR
10 locations25 locations50 locations100 locations
10
20
30
40
0
Percent over optimal after 100 iterations
Increasing problem size
Benders ADP
Perc
ent e
rror
Research
Application areas» Planning and control technologies for real-time
management of complex systems• Commercial freight transportation
– United Parcel Service (largest small parcel network)– Yellow/Roadway Corporation (largest less-than-truckload
motor carrier)– Schneider National – (largest truckload operation)
• Military operations – U.S. and Canadian Air Force
• Electric power– PJM Interconnection – (largest regional transmission
organization)• R&D portfolio management for energy research
– Lawrence Livermore
Research
Dimensions of research» Theory
• Proofs of convergence of algorithms• Maximizing rate of convergence• Properties of models
» Laboratory experimentation• Accelerating the speed of the algorithms• Evaluating solution quality
» Field experimentation• Does it scale to real applications?• Is the modeling and algorithmic methodology robust?
Research
Research highlights since 1990 (when CASTLE Lab was founded):» $10+ million in research funding» 67 journal articles accepted for publication
• Operations Research, Management Science, Transportation Science,Mathematics of Operations Research, Mathematical Programming, Networks, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Informs Journal on Computing, Operations Research Letters, Naval Research Logistics, European Journal of Operations Research
» 4 invited book chapters for the society-sponsored series Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science
» 1 edited volume; book in preparation.» Chaired NSF workshop on Approximate Dynamic Programming
and Reinforcement Learning.» Elected Fellow of Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences» 97 invited talks» 100+ conference presentations
Research
Graduate students» 14 Ph.D.’s:
• Academic positions– Cornell University (Operations Research)– University of Pennsylvania (Systems Engineering)– Iowa State (Industrial Engineering)– London School of Economics– Samford College (Dept of Mathematics)– University of Toronto (Industrial Engineering)– City University of New York (Civil Engineering)– Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Brazil
• Research positions– Princeton University– Lawrence Livermore– Bell Labs– IBM Watson Research Center
» 7 M.S.E.’s
ResearchAwards for graduate student research:
» Winner, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Tassio Carvalho, Dissertation title: “Dynamic Control of Spatial Resource Allocation Problems", 1996.
» Winner, George Dantzig Prize for the best dissertation in Operations Research, won by Raymond K.-L. Cheung, Dissertation title: “Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities, with Application to the Stochastic Dynamic Vehicle Allocation Problem", 1994.
» Honorable mention, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Raymond K.-L. Cheung, Dissertation title: “Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities, with Application to the Stochastic Dynamic Vehicle Allocation Problem", 1993.
» Winner, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by LinosFrantzeskakis, Dissertation title: "Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities: Solution Methods and Applications", 1990.
» Honorable Mention, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Yiannis Koskosidis, Dissertation title: "Optimization-Based Models and Algorithms for Routing and Scheduling with Time Window Constraints", 1988.
» Honorable Mention, Transportation Dissertation Prize Competition, won by Hugo Simao, Dissertation title: "Numerical, Discrete Time Simulation of Transportation Queueing Networks", 1987.
Testimonials
Email from Swift Transportation (largest publicly held truckload motor carrier), April 6, 2006.
[email protected] wrote:>>> Hello Warren,>> You may not remember me but I did some work with you on dynamic truckload> decision support systems in the early 90's. I [am] with Swift Transportation the> largest publically traded truck load carrier in America.>> I'm looking for commercially available dss based on your research. Can you> direct me?>> Craig Littzen>>
[email protected] wrote:>>> Hello Warren,>> You may not remember me but I did some work with you on dynamic truckload> decision support systems in the early 90's. I [am] with Swift Transportation the> largest publically traded truck load carrier in America.>> I'm looking for commercially available dss based on your research. Can you> direct me?>> Craig Littzen>>
Testimonials
Email from AFOSR program officer (Juan Vasquez)
“Transitions” documented on AFOSR grant:
Technology transfer
Working with faculty startups» University rules limit ability to
participate in enterprises which relate to our research.
» Companies cannot fund further research at the university.
» “Awkward” having staff from these companies visiting the university.
» Limits our ability to continue to work with these companies to develop technologies that are not quite ready.
Partner companies» Princeton Consultants (no
affiliation with any Princeton faculty).
Princeton Transportation Consulting Group
Funding models
1981-1989» Research model: professor working with grad students» NSF adopts policy of joint projects with industry» Funding: NSF, NSF/PYI, industrial contracts
• PYI award provided for $37.5k of industry matching funds» Research areas – optimization models for freight transportation.
• Planning models for less-than-truckload trucking• Operational models for real-time planning in truckload trucking• Stochastic programming for fleet management• Routing and scheduling of vehicles
» Programming deliverables• WBP served as primary programmer• Some student programming
Funding models
1990-2006» Research model: CASTLE Lab
• Technical staff to perform programming– Dr. Hugo Simao– Dr. Belgacem Bouzaiene-Ayari– Dr. Abraham George
• Graduate students for fundamental research» Funding:
• AFOSR ~$140k per year• Air Force Contract on Knowledge Networks (with Savas Dayanik)• Occasional NSF grant• Industrial sponsors ~$400k - ~$500k per year
– United Parcel Service– Schneider National– Norfolk Southern Railroad– Princeton Consultants (Netjets)
» Research focus: • Stochastic optimization models for complex operational problems
Funding
National Science Foundation» 1980’s: “We do not fund research, we bless it.”» Today: funding limited to $80k per year per PI.» Steve Nash (NSF Program director): “We cannot get
proposals for high impact research” (spoken at NSF workshop, April, 2006).
Air Force Office of Scientific Research» Currently receiving $140k per year. Currently
supporting a post-doc (Abraham George).
Research expenditures
Total
Total expenditures (ORFE and CASTLE Lab)
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
Year
Expe
nditu
res
(mill
ions
)
ORFECastle Lab
Research expenditures
Per faculty
CASTLE exp. vs. ORFE exp. / faculty
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
$ m
illio
ns Castle LabExp/faculty
History
Consulting retainers» Began in 1990 at the suggestion of department chair
(Pinder)» Designed to cover:
• Miscellaneous consulting requests related to the adoption of the research within the company
• Noncompete/confidentiality agreements» Carefully documented on conflict of interest statements
each year since 1990:• Reviewed by four different department chairs
» Summarized in memo to Dean James Wei» Reviewed by Dobkin/Klawe/Cinlar/Christy in 2003.
• Adjustment made to consulting payments made to Hugo and Belgacem.
Disclosures
Disclosures
2003 letter from Dean Dobkin:
Disclosures
Comment by colleague in chemical engineering on the topic of retainers:
» “I have those with all my industrial sponsors”
Remark by Dean Dobkin to Erhan Cinlar during 2003 review:
» “Half the faculty in engineering must have these agreements”
Disclosures
Approved scope of work for UPS:
Proposed scope of work for all current sponsors:
Disclosures
Annual letter from DOF:
» My activities have been clearly documented for 15 years and reviewed by four different chairs!