case studies of warm season cutoff cyclone precipitation distribution
DESCRIPTION
Case Studies of Warm Season Cutoff Cyclone Precipitation Distribution . Jessica Najuch Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany, State University of New York Advisors: Lance Bosart and Dan Keyser NWS Focal Points: Tom Wasula and Ken LaPenta. Outline of Presentation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Case Studies of Warm Season Cutoff Cyclone Precipitation
Distribution
Jessica NajuchDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Advisors: Lance Bosart and Dan KeyserNWS Focal Points: Tom Wasula and Ken LaPenta
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Outline of Presentation
• Explain the motivation and focus behind my research
• Look at my progress to date• Climatology of monthly precipitation
distribution• Climatology of monthly tracks• Examine two case studies• Discuss preliminary results and future work
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Motivation
• Cutoff cyclones have diverse precipitation patterns
• Flash floods are a consistent forecasting problem
• National 30-year average for flash flood deaths is 127
• Continuation of Matt Novak’s thesis but focus on the Northeast
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Arcade, NY June 26, 1998
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Focus• Stratify precipitation distribution relative to cutoff
cyclone tracks as identified in composites developed by Matt Novak (2003).
• Map/understand cutoff cyclone precipitation characteristics in composites especially in relation to terrain.
• Document mesoscale precipitation signatures in case studies representative of each of the composites.
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Warm Season Composite Mean Cutoff Cyclone Tracks M. Novak (2003)
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Focus Continued• Understand role of terrain/low-level jet interactions in
determining the precipitation distribution in case studies representative of each of the composites.
• Use composites to look for changes in orientation of the cutoff in each case.
• Assess precipitation signatures in terms of shear/CAPE profiles in selected case studies.
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Progress to Date
• Created a climatology of monthly precipitation distribution
• Hand drew the tracks of all 500 hPa closed lows from 1980-1998
• Graphical and textural record of tracks• Created and studied many composites for
two of four case studies
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Climatology Of Monthly Precipitation Distribution
• NCEP Unified Precipitation Dataset (UPD)
• 50 year dataset
• Each day a cutoff with precipitation passed through a specified domain
• Months June through September
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Outer Domain
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inches/day
mm/day
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inches/day
mm/day
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inches/day
mm/day
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inches/day
mm/day
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inches/day
mm/day
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Climatology of Monthly Tracks
• Used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset• Plotted 500 hPa geopotential height at 30m
intervals• Tracked, by hand, cutoff cyclones at 6 hour
intervals 1980-1998• Cyclone was considered cutoff where a
height minimum was surrounded by at least one closed contour
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Cases1. 6/30/98-7/1/98-Great Lakes Category of a Closed Low
2. 7/3/96-7/5/96-Hudson Bay Category of a Closed Low
3. 7/18/96-7/19/96-Great Lakes Category of a Closed Low
4. 7/29/96-8/2/96-Great Lakes Category of a Closed Low
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Case: 6/30/98 – 7/1/98• Great Lakes Category of a closed low
• Produced all types of significant weather, many tornadoes
• OH, WV, 6-10” of rain
• VT, NY flash floods
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Tornadoes: 17Hail: 64Wind: 283
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Maximum Precipitation:Woonsocket, RI3.58 inches
2-day precipitation plot (in) ending 12Z 1 July 1998
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980630/1200F000
MSLP (hPa) and 1000-500 Thickness (dam)
500 Hght (dam) and Abs. Vorticity (x10-5 s-1)
250 Hght (dam) and Isotachs (m s-1) 850 Hght (m) and Isotachs (m s-1)
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980701/1200F000
MSLP (hPa) and 1000-500 Thickness (dam) 500 Hght (dam) and Abs. Vorticity (x10-5 s-1)
250 Hght (dam) and Isotachs (m s-1) 850 Hght (m) and Isotachs (m s-1)
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Case: 7/3/96 – 7/5/96
• Hudson Bay Category of a closed low
• Flash flood producer
• Widespread heavy precipitation in eastern NY, stretching northeastward into Maine
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Maximum Precipitation:Malone, NY 3.63 inches
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960703/1200F000
MSLP (hPa) and 1000-500 Thickness (dam) 500 Hght (dam) and Abs. Vorticity (x10-5 s-1)
250 Hght (dam) and Isotachs (m s-1) 850 Hght (m) and Isotachs (m s-1)
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960704/1200F000
MSLP (hPa) and 1000-500 Thickness (dam) 500 Hght (dam) and Abs. Vorticity (x10-5 s-1)
250 Hght (dam) and Isotachs (m s-1) 850 Hght (m) and Isotachs (m s-1)
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960705/1200F000
MSLP (hPa) and 1000-500 Thickness (dam) 500 Hght (dam) and Abs. Vorticity (x10-5 s-1)
250 Hght (dam) and Isotachs (m s-1) 850 Hght (m) and Isotachs (m s-1)
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Preliminary Results• There is a general eastward shift of heavy
precipitation due to cutoff cyclones from June to September
• Entrance/exit regions of low-level jets assoc. with cutoff cyclones can strongly enhance heavy precipitation
• Heavy precipitation normally falls either to the right or left of track, not on track
• Cyclonic vorticity advection has much influence on enhancing heavy precipitation
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Future Work• Continue producing the UPD climatology plots for
specific tracks and compare to monthly composites
• Analyze precipitation patterns between cutoffs of the same track
• Further analyze composites to see how speed and direction of movement of lows affect precipitation distributions
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Future Work Cont.• Obtain radar data to map/understand how precipitation is
associated with the composites for each case study
• Determine what percentage of monthly precipitation is due to cutoff cyclones versus any other synoptic or mesoscale feature
• Build a user friendly database of cutoffs from 1980-1998
• Put all of this research into one nice thesis!