cascades mar13pres

29
CASCADES INC. Goldman Sachs 2013 Montréal Paper & Forest Products Investor Event March 13, 2013

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Page 1: Cascades mar13pres

CASCADES INC. Goldman Sachs 2013 Montréal Paper & Forest Products Investor Event March 13, 2013

Page 2: Cascades mar13pres

Certain statements in this presentation, including statements regarding future results and performance, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities legislation based on current expectations. The accuracy of such statements is subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, including, but not limited to, the effect of general economic conditions, decreases in demand for the Corporation’s products, the prices and availability of raw materials, changes in the relative values of certain currencies, fluctuations in selling prices and adverse changes in general market and industry conditions. This presentation may also include price indices as well as variance and sensitivity analyses that are intended to provide the reader with a better understanding of the trends related to our business activities. These items are based on the best estimates available to the Corporation. The financial information included in this presentation also contains certain data that are not measures of performance under IFRS (“non-IFRS measures”). For example, the Corporation uses earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) because it is the measure used by management to assess the operating and financial performance of the Corporation’s operating segments. Such information is reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures, as set forth in the “Supplemental Information on Non-IFRS Measures” section of our most recent quarterly report or annual report. Specific items are defined as items such as charges for impairment of assets, for facility or machine closures, accelerated depreciation of assets due to restructuring measures, debt restructuring charges, gains or losses on sales of business units, unrealized gains or losses on derivative financial instruments that do not qualify for hedge accounting, foreign exchange gains or losses on long-term debt and other significant items of an unusual or non-recurring nature. All amounts in this presentation are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated.

DISCLAIMER

2

Page 3: Cascades mar13pres

GREEN PACKAGING AND TISSUE PRODUCT OFFERING

3

Packaging Tissue Papers Boxboard Europe Containerboard Specialty Products

Leading NA packaging and tissue manufacturer with substantial recycling capabilities

Page 4: Cascades mar13pres

BALANCED PACKAGING AND TISSUE PLAY

4

Packaging Products 74% of Sales

57% of EBITDA

Cascades 2012 Sales: $3,645M 2012 EBITDA1: $304M

Tissue Papers 26% of Sales

43% of EBITDA

Boxboard Europe 21% of Sales

13% of EBITDA

Containerboard 32% of Sales

29% of EBITDA

Specialty Products 21% of Sales

15% of EBITDA

Exposure to less cyclical end-markets

1 EBITDA excluding specific items. Breakdown of sales and EBITDA before eliminations & corporate activities.

Page 5: Cascades mar13pres

CLOSED-LOOP BUSINESS MODEL

5

100+ business units

32 units

23 units

58 units

May be sent to recycling centers

77% recycled fibre (2.9M tons)

NA integration rate (2012):

34% (520K tons)

NA integration rate (2012): 51%

Including seven manufacturing/converting tissue papers units and Reno De Medici’s units.

Upstream and downstream integration

Page 6: Cascades mar13pres

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0S

ep-1

0N

ov-1

0Ja

n-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1S

ep-1

1N

ov-1

1Ja

n-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2S

ep-1

2N

ov-1

2Ja

n-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

20-pt clay coated news (CRB)Linerboard 42-lbCorrugating medium 26-lb

($US/s.t.)

MARKET DYNAMICS – CONTAINERBOARD

6

Containerboard industry fundamentals are positive

Sources: RISI, Fiber Box Association, Paper Packaging Canada.

North American Box Shipments

428 421

405

374

386 387 389

370

385

400

415

430

445

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(billions ft2)

Containerboard Price Increases

Second $US50/s.t. price increase announced for April 1st

Page 7: Cascades mar13pres

MARKET DYNAMICS – CONTAINERBOARD

7 Sources: Company estimates, RISI, Fiber Box Association, Paper Packaging Canada.

93%

85%

95% 96% 96%

86%

82%

86%

90%

94%

98%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NRP

Containerboard Utilization Rate

Balanced supply/demand equation with industry utilization rates exceeding 95%

Major Producers : Top 3 = 65%

IP 35%

Rock-Tenn 19%

Graphic Pack. 11%

PCA 7%

Pratt 3%

Cascades 3%

Others 22%

Page 8: Cascades mar13pres

7,896

8,028

8,201

8,053

8,219

8,319

8,472

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

( 000 s.t.)

MARKET DYNAMICS – TISSUE PAPERS

8

New capacity to have more impact on national brands but potential trickle-down to AfH

US tissue consumption

Sources: RISI, Fiber Box Association, Paper Packaging Canada.

8,512

8,902496154

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

2011 NATissue Capacity

New capacity '12-'13

(TAD and TADe)

New capacity '12-'13

(other grades)

Expectedclosures

2013 NATissue Capacity

(estimate)

('000 s.t.)

(260)

Capacity additions in the tissue sector

+4.5%

+1.5%

Page 9: Cascades mar13pres

9 Source: RISI and Company estimates; sales by countries exclude parent roll sales

Cascades’ Tissue Papers 2012 Sales – End-Users

Branded 57%

Private label 43%

Branded 16%

Private label 84%

Cascades’ Tissue Papers 2012 Sales – Countries

Retail 54%

AfH 46%

Retail 53%

AfH 47%

Canada (28%)

US (72%)

Retail 45%

Parent rolls 16%

AfH 39%

90% private label

36% branded

Exposure to relatively stable / growing demand

MARKET DYNAMICS – TISSUE PAPERS

Page 10: Cascades mar13pres

OBM Average Annually List Prices 2011 2012 YoY YTD-2013Brown grades - OCC No. 11 (New England) 158 119 -25% 108White grades - SOP No. 37 (New England) 242 168 -31% 165

290

175165165

90

115

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

09

Apr

09

July

09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

July

10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

July

11

Oct

11

Jan

12

Apr

12

July

12

Oct

12

Jan

13

(US$/ton) Main Recycled Fiber North Amercian OBM List Prices

White grades (SOP) Brown grades (OCC)

Recent price increases but costs not expected to average significantly more in 2013 Sources: RISI, Bloomberg.

MARKET DYNAMICS – RAW MATERIAL COSTS

Current

10

Mar

13

Page 11: Cascades mar13pres

Cascades’ North American Fibre Supply

11

Control over 70% of our fibre supply despite greater concentration on the supply side

Contractual Agreements

46%

Cascades Recovery

and Internal 35%

Spot Purchases

19%

2008

Contractual Agreements

40%

Cascades Recovery

and Internal 33%

Spot Purchases

27%

2012

MARKET DYNAMICS – RAW MATERIAL COSTS

Page 12: Cascades mar13pres

12

Financial results impacted negatively by stronger CAD$ and variable cost inflation

Source: Bloomberg

Increase +17% +0% +10% +21% +7% over +24 months

Chemicals – Increase over last 2 years

MARKET DYNAMICS – OTHER DRIVERS

0.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00

0.800.850.900.951.001.051.10

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

EURO/CAN$US$/CAN$

US$/CAN$ Euro/CAN$

Canadian dollar - recent 52-week high

Page 13: Cascades mar13pres

Improve our ROCE to reach our cost of capital Reach industry comparable leverage ratios

Improving our profitability and financial situation through our Action Plan

ACTION PLAN PRIORITIES

TOOL OR PROCESS

MEDIUM TERM OBJECTIVES

Focused investing for modernization of core operations

(and IT)

Optimizing capital allocation &

reducing working capital

Restructuring of under-performing

units

2 3 1

Innovation

4

ERP Working Capital Initiative

OUR STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN

13

Page 14: Cascades mar13pres

ACTING ON OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

14

Challenging Market Evolution Proactive measures Improved profitability

IMPROVED PACKAGING PLATFORM

Focused investing for modernization of core operations and IT 1

ERP

• Consolidation of our corrugated products sector in Ontario with the acquisition of Bird and concurrent investments totaling $30M

• Consolidation of our folding carton and microlithography operations with investments totaling $20M

• Important investment program

• Blueprint and programming: 2011-2012

• Implementation: 2011-2015

Page 15: Cascades mar13pres

15

• $99M total investment • Represents ± $1.05/share

• Debt non-recourse to Cascades Partners Ownership Cascades 59.7% CDPQ 20.2% Two industry converters 20.1%

• Largest recycled linerboard mill in NA: • 328 inches • 1,500 s.t./day of lightweight recycled

linerboard (26 pounds) • Most technologically advanced equipment

Will position us amongst leaders in terms of offering, productivity and profitability

Manufacturing capacity breakdown Before After Greenpac Greenpac Linerboard 28% 51% Medium 72% 49% Canada 72% 49% USA 18% 51%

Financial Structure Operational Facts

TOWARDS MODERNIZATION : GREENPAC

Page 16: Cascades mar13pres

ACTING ON OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

16

Challenging Market Evolution Proactive measures Improve profitability

• Acquired one of the most modern converting plants in NA

• Integration level increased to 70% + • Reinforces positioning in away-

from-home sector • 10 converting lines

Optimizing capital allocation; reducing working capital 2

W/C Reduction Papersource Acquisition

14.5% 14.4% 14.5%

13.2%14.2% 14.7% 14.3%

12.4%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

Working Capital (% of Sales)

Page 17: Cascades mar13pres

ACTING ON OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

17

Restructuring of under-performing units

Challenging Market Evolution Proactive measures Improved profitability

Periods 2004-2006 2006-2008 2008-2010

2011-2012

Strategic measures

Packaging 5 acquisitions 7 closures 2 sales Tissue 1 sale 1 closure 1 acquisition

Packaging 2 mergers 4 closures 4 sales 2 acquisitions 1 partnership

Packaging 2 closures 2 acquisitions Tissue 1 investment 1 acquisition

Packaging 4 sales 1 investment 10 closures Tissue 1 acquisition

3

Page 18: Cascades mar13pres

ACTING ON OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

18

Challenging Market Evolution Proactive measures Improve profitability

Improvement and development of processes and products through innovation 4

Two-finger drink carrier

Moka – Beige bath tissue

Closing system reducing air exchange

Page 19: Cascades mar13pres

3,692 3,862

3,481

4,033 4,025 3,877

3,182

3,625 3,645

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(M CAN$) SALES

259 262314

340305

465

310

229

304

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(M CAN$) EBITDA

HISTORICAL FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

19

Results impacted by challenging market conditions, lower shipments and higher cost input

EBITDA excluding specific items but including discontinued operations. Canadian GAAP (not adjusted for IFRS). 2010 and 2011 figures presented under IFRS and exclude discontinued operations of Dopaco.

IFRS CANADIAN GAAP IFRS CANADIAN GAAP

Page 20: Cascades mar13pres

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs)

Need for improvement in productivity The capacity utilization rate is defined as: Shipments/Practical capacity. Paper manufacturing only. 20

661

902822

774 808 826 804 809

500

625

750

875

1000

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

('000 s.t.) Total Shipments

90% 90%

87%86%

89% 90%

87% 88%

80%

83%

86%

89%

92%

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

Capacity Utilization Rate

Page 21: Cascades mar13pres

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs)

Return on assets progressing; major improvement in working capital management Return on assets is defined as : LTM EBITDA excluding specific items/ LTM Average of total quarterly assets. It includes discontinued operations. Working capital includes accounts receivable plus inventories less accounts payable.

21

9.9%

8.7%

7.4%

6.5%7.1%

7.6% 7.5%8.1%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

LTM Return on Assets

14.5% 14.4% 14.5%

13.2%14.2% 14.7% 14.3%

12.4%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

Working Capital (% of Sales)

Page 22: Cascades mar13pres

5

17

10 1013

11

7

11

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

0

5

10

15

20

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

(% of sales)(M CAN$)Boxboard Europe

19 20

27

19 2123

26 25

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

10

15

20

25

30

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

(% of sales)(M CAN$)Containerboard

1016

18

2833

3935

31

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

0

10

20

30

40

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

(% of sales)(M CAN$)Tissue Papers

7

12 13

2

11

15 15

8

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

0

5

10

15

20

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

(% of sales)(M CAN$)Specialty Products

HISTORICAL SEGMENTED EBITDA

EBITDA excluding specific items. 22

Tissue Papers

Boxboard Europe Containerboard

Specialty Products

Page 23: Cascades mar13pres

BLX growth not fully reflected in its valuation; still represents ±$1.35/share for CAS 23

PERFORMANCE OF OUR EQUITY INVESTMENTS - BORALEX

Source: Bloomberg and Boralex’ website; refer to October 2012 Investor Presentation for footnotes.

Analyst Recommendations Average target 1 top pick 13.00$ 4 buys or outperforms ~12.00$ 1 sector outperform 11.25$ 2 market or sector perform ~10.50$ Comparative Valuation Matrix BLX INE NPI (based on 2013 figures) Price/Book 1.2x 1.6x 4.4x Price/Cash flow 8.4x 12.9x 12.1x EV/EBITDA 10.5x 17.3x 12.2x

Page 24: Cascades mar13pres

Reno is a turnaround story in a tough economic environment 24

• 30.6% interest received in 2007 in exchange for our CRB mills

• RDM is a public company • Market cap: 57M € • TEV/EBITDA: 5.5x (LTM); 3.5x (2013E) • P/BV: 0.4x

• Current ownership : 48.5% • Put option requiring us to buy additional 9% • Fully consolidated in our results

Cascades’ Ownership in Reno de Medici

• 2nd supplier of boxboard in Europe • Excellent geographical coverage of Western

Europe with production facilities in main markets

• Wide range of packaging products – virgin and recycled

• Competitive cost structure will allow to compete against Asian supply

• Three WLC units seen as European class facilities

• Capital structure in good position

Competitive Positioning

PERFORMANCE OF OUR EQUITY INVESTMENTS - RDM

40 30 26

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012

(millions €) Reno de Medici’s EBITDA

Page 25: Cascades mar13pres

DEBT PROFILE

25

Leverage ratio improvement due to increased profitability Note: EBITDA excluding specific items. Starting in Q2 2011, LTM EBITDA / Interest includes 100% of RDM. Starting in Q4 2011, also includes 100% of Papersource. Cascades’ bank debt financial covenant ratios: Net funded debt to capitalization < 65% (currently at 55%),interest coverage ratio > 2.25x (currently at 3.01x).

57%59%

54%

57%59%

61%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Debt / Debt + Equity

4.6x

5.9x

3.3x

4.5x

5.8x

5.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

6.0x

7.0x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net debt / LTM EBITDA

3.4x3.0x

4.6x

2.9x2.5x

3.1x

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Interest Coverage Ratio

Before 20169%

201641%

201733%

202017%

Long-term Debt Maturities Distribution

Page 26: Cascades mar13pres

CREDIT AGREEMENT TERMS

26

Advantageous credit terms providing flexibility

February 2011 February 2012

Structure $750 M revolving credit facility $750 M revolving credit facility

Maturity February 2015 February 2016

Interest rate LIBOR + 212.5 bps LIBOR + 175 bps

Standby fees 48 bps 35 bps

Covenants1 Funded Debt to Capitalization Ratio ≤ 65% Interest Coverage Ratio ≥ 2.25x

Funded Debt to Capitalization Ratio ≤ 65% Interest Coverage Ratio ≥ 2.25x

1 On an adjusted consolidated basis

Current Debt / Cap Ratio : 51% Current Interest Coverage Ratio : 3.3x

Page 27: Cascades mar13pres

27

CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Important capital allocation decisions since FY2010 1 EBITDA excluding specific items. Starting in Q4 2011, ratios include 100% of Papersource. 2012E and 2013E ratios are based on forecasts by analysts and debt remaining at Q2 2012 level.

1,397

1,535

(298)

(287)

278

25099

8344

700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700

Total Debt12/31/2010

Dopacosale

Cash flowfrom op.

Var. ofworkingCapital

$CAN Acqu. &consol.

Capex,net of disp.

Greenpacinvestment

Leases &others

Dividends&

buy-backs

Net Debt12/31/2012

(M CAN$)

(20) (11)

Présentateur
Commentaires de présentation
Page 28: Cascades mar13pres

CAPEX PROGRAM

28

Gradual capex program to improve asset base while maintaining financial flexibility

Capital Expenditures Distribution in 2012 - $198M

Capex requests for 2013 initially approved at approximately $175M First allocation of $150M Amount subject to change depending on operating results and economic conditions

Corporate 24%

Boxboard Europe

15%

Tissue papers

17%

Specialty products

8%

Container -board 36%

By segment

Others 25%

Health & Safety

3% Energy

5%

Cost Reduction,

Productivity &

Maintenance 67%

By project category

Page 29: Cascades mar13pres

29

Taking the steps to be ready for tailwinds

POTENTIAL BENEFITS STEMMING FROM OUR RECENT INITIATIVES

• Modernization initiatives (±$150M capex program per year) • Papersource integration

• Bird Packaging integration • Announced price increases in the containerboard sector • Containerboard productivity rate to revert to historical levels • Streamlining of converting operations in New England, Ontario and

Québec • 18 divestitures/closures since 2008, some of which unprofitable units • Greenpac contribution and valuation • Complete turnaround and modernization of European platform

• Complete ramp-up of Atmos tissue paper machine • Boralex project pipeline

• Benefits from ERP upgrade

Improvement in the

economic environment

in North America

and Europe