carsten brzeski, chief economist at ing-diba (germany)
TRANSCRIPT
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The Return of a Monster?The dark side of secular stagnation
November 2015www.ing-diba.de
Carsten BrzeskiChief Economist
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Global cooling…
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
Global trade, six-month average, % change on a year earlier
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Volume Value
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…has brought back recession fears
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Chinese headaches
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What you see is not always what you get
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
GDP and China Momentum IndicatorFour-quarter percentage changes
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
6,9
2,8
GDP China Momentum Indicator
5
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And China is contagious for other emerging market economies
6
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
Brazil RussiaIndia China
GDP-growth year-on-year %
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US – To hike or not to hike?
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Labour market still has some dark spots
8
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
US labour market details
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201462
63
64
65
66
67
68
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Participation rate (%, lhs)Not looking for a job, due to discouragement (rhs, 000)
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US policy rate expectations
9
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Eurozone balancing act continues
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Credit growth remains lacklustre
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
Eurozone - Corporates' loans and deposits% YoY
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Loans to corporates (lhs) Deposits of corporates (rhs)
11
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Optimism and reality
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Eurozone GDP growth rate (% yoy)
ECB forecast actual data
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Car country Germany
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But before the first run out of the room to get some happy pills…
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…there are some rays of hope
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Different Chinese growth model
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Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201580
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
China Services China Manufacturing + Construction
x 1,000 x 1,000
Industry + Construction
Services
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US labour market is strong…
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
US labour market
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
Unemployment rate (lhs, rev, %) Employment (rhs, mio)
18
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…and household finances are in much better shape
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
Household debtPer cent of income
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1480
90
100
110
120
130
140
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
US
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Eurozone confidence is still robust...
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201560
70
80
90
100
110
120
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR (EA18) : Euro Zone1Y % change of GDP (EA19)(WDA)(ESA2010) : Euro Zone (RH Scale)
20
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...with some Eurozone rebalancing…
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Economic sentiment indicator (divergence from LT-average)
GR AT FI BE FR NL PT EMU DE ES IT-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
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5
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1 YEAR AGO LATEST
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…driven by external tailwinds…
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Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
2013 2014 2015-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1Y % change of euro NEER (rhs) 1Y % change of oil price in EUR (lhs)
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BUT…the secular stagnation and deleveraging issue
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Low oil prices are not a blessing for everyone
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
500
1000
1500
2000
US ROTARY RIGS - OIL : United States (RH Scale) 4M lag of Crude Oil-Brent Cur. Month FOB U$/BBL
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Debt – the ticking time bomb in China?
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2007 2014
China - Debt-to-GDP ratio (%)
Household Corporate Government Financial
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Eurozone – the tough difference between change and level
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
Eurozone GDP per capita since 2007Rebased to zero at end-2007 (% change)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,5
9,2
-0,6
-9,4
0,9
8,4
-25,2
Germany: 9,2%Ireland: 8,4%France: 1,5%Portugal: 0,9%Spain: -0,6%Italy: -9,4%Greece: -25,2%
-27,2%
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Pick-up in investment will be key…
Quelle: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ING Economic Research
Private domestic investment
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201590
100
110
120
130
140
90
100
110
120
130
140
USA EUROZONE
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…but leverage remains a crucial hurdle
50556065707580859095
100
2005
q120
05q4
2006
q320
07q2
2008
q120
08q4
2009
q320
10q2
2011
q120
11q4
2012
q320
13q2
2014
q120
14q4
2015
q3
Gross debt households in % GDP
United States
Japan
Euro area
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2005
q120
05q4
2006
q320
07q2
2008
q120
08q4
2009
q320
10q2
2011
q120
11q4
2012
q320
13q2
2014
q120
14q4
2015
q3
Gross debt non-financial corporations in % GDP
United States
Japan
Euro area
Source OECD
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It is time to get up…
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The Eurozone’s structural problems
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Diverging competitiveness…
31 01.05.23 Bitte Präsentationstitel über Menüpunkt "Ansicht", "Kopf- und Fußzeile" anpassen
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Drivers of change
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Autonomous driving: The autonomous driving biomobile
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Source: Futureclick.
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Autonomous driving: Brightest future for self-driving cars in US and China
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Source: IHS Automotive 2014.
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Autonomous driving: Autonomous driving in perfection
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Smart cities
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Source: Nationale Plattform Zukunftsstadt.
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Robotics: The cook who knows 2,000 recipes by heart
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Source: Computerbild.
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Robotics: Change in competitiveness due to robotics
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Source: BCG 2015.
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Robotics: Labor-cost savings
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Source: BCG 2015.
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Robotics: The Robot Journalist
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Source: TheGuardian; Getty Images.
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Robotics: The Robots are already here
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Source: IFR.
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Big data
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Source: Datafloq.
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3d printing
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But will there be a real economic impact?
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Source: The Economist.
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Potential economic impact of IoT
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Monitoring and managing illness, improving wellness
Condition-based maintenance, reduced insurance
Operations optimization, equipment maintenance, health and safety, IoT-enabled R&D
Operations optimization, predictive maintenance, inventory optimization, health and safety
Organizational redesign and worker monitoring, augmented reality for training, energy monitoring, building security
Automated checkout, layout optimization, smart CRM, in-store personalized promotions, inventory shrinkage prevention
Energy management, safety and security, chore automation, usage-based design of appliances
Public safety and health, traffic control, resource management
Size in 2025. $ billion, adjusted to 2015 dollars.Source: McKinsey 2015.
Logistics routing, autonomous cars and trucks, navigation560-850
930-1,660
210-740
160-930
170-1,590
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Developed vs developing world
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Health-care spending in advanced economies is twice that in developing economies
Higher values in advanced economies outweighs higher number of emerging market households
Higher adoption and values in advanced economies, but large number of retail settings in developing markets
Higher costs and wages in advanced economies raises value of impact
Larger investments in automation in advanced economies, but large number of factories in emerging markets
Higher adoption in advanced economies outweighs larger number of developing economy deployments
Higher costs in advanced economies
More autonomous vehicles in advanced economies, but larger number of cities and populations in developing markets
Transportation/shipping spending higher in advanced economies
Source: McKinsey 2015.
Reasons for different levels of impact%
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Industrials: a wide open opportunity
Energy efficiency, home comfort and security will be key areas of Industrial focus
IoT can help reduce home energy consumption by over 40% in various applications
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Source: ABB; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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What do we need?
Connectivity infrastructure builds the backbone of Industry 4.0
Source: Cisco VNI 2015; Cisco Global Cloud Index, 2014.
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Are countries laying the right foundations?
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NAC: National absorptive capacity, 55 indicators, e.g. banking and finance, education, governance, suppliers, R&D, technology skills. Rankings of countries‘ Industrial Internet of Things enabling factorsSource: Accenture; Frontier Economics.
NAC score
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Don’t fear the monster but face the reality
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QUESTIONS?
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Disclosures Appendix
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