Cars in the FutureEnergy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling

Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group

Environmental Research InstituteUniversity College Cork

ERI Research Open Day December 15th, 2010

“Car of the Future”

Summary of Motivations:

• Climate change & CO2

• Peak oil • Security of supply• Volatile oil prices• EU targets• Cars are particularly hard

Energy Modelling

• Bottom-Up vs Top-Down• Simulation• Optimisation

Bottom-Up Car Stock Model

1. Disaggregate the fleet 1. Fuel type2. Age3. Engine size (cc band)

2. Characteristics of each type of car3. Econometric drivers: activity and

sales4. Demographic forecasting

1. Disaggregated Car Stock 2008

2. Scrappage Profiles

3. Econometric Drivers

• Annual Sales & Vkm driven by GNP & fuel price

• Elasticities derived from historic regression

€

SalesT = SalesT −1 × (1+%GNPT ∗δIS ) × (1+%PT ∗δPS )

3. Econometric Drivers

4. Demographic Forecasting

5. Energy Calculation

€

EnergyT = StockT ,C ,V ∗MileageT ,C ,V ∗SECT ,C ,VC ,V

∑

Scenario Analysis

• Change parameters to test policies..– Type of sales EV, new-car

efficiency targets– Economy & fuel price Impact of recession– Scrappage profile Scrappage scheme– Activity Modal shift, demand

reduction

• Compare energy, CO2 to baseline

EV Scenario: 2020 Stock Profile

EV Results

EV Results: Energy & CO2 Displaced

EV Results: Renewable Energy

Biogas: CNG vehicles

• 10% CNG vehicle target

• Lower carbon content

• Same efficiency as Diesel cars

• Possibility of renewable biomethane: 7.5%

Result: CNG vs EV

RES-T

Future Direction

• TIMES model: – What is the cost optimal technology mix to

reach targets?

• Modal shift – What are investment costs and payoffs for

public & non-motorised transport?

• Socio-economic technology modelling: – How does the changing socio-economic

profile effect modal and technology choice?

Cars in the FutureEnergy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling

Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group

Environmental Research InstituteUniversity College Cork

ERI Research Open Day December 15th, 2010