caribbean the public’s view of trust and democracy in the caribbean professor sir robert worcester...
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Caribbean The Public’s View of Trust and Democracy
in the Caribbean
Professor Sir Robert WorcesterFounder, MORI International
& MORI CaribbeanAdvisory Board Member, Latinobarometro
22 November 2005
2
CaribbeanOutline of the Presentation
Background to the research
Trust: the essential ingredient
Democracy in the Caribbean
Conclusions
3
CaribbeanOutline of the Presentation
Background to the research
Trust: the essential ingredient
Democracy in the Caribbean
Conclusions
4
CaribbeanA Word about Research
We measure perceptions, not facts
Five things we find with the tools of our trade:
behaviour, knowledge, and…
three levels of ‘views’:
– Opinions
– Attitudes
– Values
5
CaribbeanCaribarometer
• 2001: 6 countries - Antigua - Dominica -Grenada
- St. Kitts - St Lucia - St Vincent & The Grenadines
• Pilot Study, incorporating a number of LB/WVS/other comparative questions
- Happiness - Issues - Economic Optimism, national & personal- Country importance - Environment - Satisfaction with Democracy- Media - Institutions - Satisfaction with Governance
• Extensive work in Trinidad & Tobago 2002 – present- Opinion Leaders Panel - Advertising effectiveness - Political polling- Staff attitude studies - Service delivery - Policy testing- Communications structure and planning - Organisation
6
CaribbeanOutline of the Presentation
Background to the research
Trust: the essential ingredient
Democracy in the Caribbean
Conclusions
7
CaribbeanTrust: The Research Questions
• What are the ingredients of trust?
• Can trust, once lost, be regained?
• How do you deal with a crisis in trust in institutions?
• What is the relationship between trust and building democracy?
• How does lack of trust in government impinge upon its freedom to act?
8
Caribbean
• Trust is determined by veracity, service delivery and transparency; in Latin America, trust is constructed by a balance of power and justice, as well as fair treatment
• Trust is built glacially; destroyed precipitously
• Trust can be regained: e.g., Japanese quality of products
• Built up over time, by behaviour and communication aligned to needs
• It’s not ‘going wrong; it’s how you recover from ‘going wrong’
Trust: The research findings
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Caribbean
83%72%
70%69%
60%56%55%54%
49%47%47%
43%42%41%
35%
Source: MORI
Confidence in Caribbean Institutions
Q. “How much confidence do you have in the …?” (% ‘great deal/ fair amount)
ChurchBanksTVRadioLocal companiesNewspapersAverageJudgesPoliceInternational CompaniesTrade UnionsArmed ForcesPrime MinisterParliamentPolitical Parties
Base: c. 500 adults in six Caribbean countries, FW Spring 2001
10
CaribbeanConfidence in Caribbean Institutions
Country Church Banks TV RadioLocal Cos
News- papers Judges Police
Int'l Cos TU
Armed Forces PM Parl'm't
Political Parties Average
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
St Vincent 90 75 76 77 50 67 63 57 40 49 49 48 59 57 61%Dominica 82 78 75 78 61 60 52 59 50 45 n/a 47 47 38 59%Grenada 82 86 70 71 61 54 52 54 46 48 57 41 34 25 56%St. Kitts 89 82 64 51 74 42 63 29 63 51 67 34 43 30 56%Antigua 80 67 59 62 55 50 52 51 44 46 54 39 36 32 52%St. Lucia 77 67 73 74 51 59 43 45 42 43 28 43 41 29 51%Average 83 72 70 69 60 56 54 49 47 47 43 42 41 35 55%
1 2 3 4 5 6
Q. “How much confidence do you have in the …?” (% ‘great deal/ fair amount)
Base: c. 500 adults in six Caribbean countries, FW Spring 2001 Source: MORI
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Caribbean
5%
14%
9%
17%
18%
21%
26%
29%
27%
30%
91%
80%
79%
76%
76%
66%
63%
56%
54%
52%
More trusted professions (1 of 2)– Trinidad & Tobago
% Tell truth
Q Now I will read out a list of different types of people. For each, would you tell me whether you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?
% Not tell truth
Civil servants
Pollsters
The Military
Teachers
Doctors
Religious leaders
Nurses
Professors
Judges
TV newsreaders
Base: 700 T&T residents, 6-22 December 2003
87%
n/a
74%
71%
91%
72%
66%
46%
46%
n/a
GB
Source: MORI
12
Caribbean
34%
41%
42%
51%
44%
55%
56%
51%
68%
73%
52%
45%
45%
37%
36%
35%
32%
31%
22%
18%
Less trusted professions (2 of 2)- Trinidad & Tobago
% Tell truth
Q Now I will read out a list of different types of people. For each, would you tell me whether you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?
% Not tell truth
Ordinary man/woman
Government ministers
Politicians generally
Community leaders
Trade union officials
Young people
Journalists
Local councilors
The Police
Business leaders
Base: 700 T&T residents, 6-22 December 2003
n/a
18%
29%
n/a
33%
64%
28%
53%
20%
18%
GB
Source: MORI
13
Caribbean
59%45%
41%38%
30%26%
19%17%
16%10%10%9%9%9%
7%6%
1%
Positive image of teachers T&T
Slow
Uninterested
Poor service
Efficient
Friendly
Unsatisfactory
Keen to help
Hardworking
Underfunded
Impolite
Open
UnresponsiveCorrupt
Honest
Unaccountable
Good value for money
Inadequate
Base: 700 T&T residents, 6-22 December 2003 Source: MORI
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CaribbeanTrust in Great Britain – 1983-2005
-24
Q. "...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?"
MORI VERACITY INDEX
Tell the truth
’83 ’93 ’97 ’99 ’00 ’01 '02 ’03 04 ’05
Occupations % % % % % % % % % %
Doctors 82 84 86 91 87 89 91 91 92 91
Teachers 79 84 83 89 85 86 85 87 89 88
Professors n/a 70 70 79 76 78 77 74 80 77
Judges 77 68 72 77 77 78 77 72 75 76
Clergyman/Priests 85 80 71 80 78 78 80 71 75 73
Scientists n/a n/a 63 63 63 65 64 65 69 70
Television news readers 63 72 74 74 73 75 71 66 70 63
The Police 61 63 61 61 60 63 59 64 63 58
The ordinary man/woman in the street 57 64 56 60 52 52 54 53 55 56
Pollsters n/a 52 55 49 46 46 47 46 49 50
Civil Servants 25 37 36 47 47 43 45 46 51 44
Trade Union officials 18 32 27 39 38 39 37 33 39 37
Business Leaders 25 32 29 28 28 27 25 28 30 24
Government Ministers 16 11 12 23 21 20 20 20 23 20
Politicians generally 18 14 15 23 20 17 19 18 22 20
Journalists 19 10 15 15 15 18 13 18 20 16
Base: 2,017 British Adults Aged 16+, 17-21 February 2005 Source: BMA/MORI
15
Caribbean
Trust in Scientists? Depends on which…
Q Which, if any, of the following scientists do you most trust to give reliable information about the environment?
50%
31%
9%
6%
1%
3%
… universities
Base: 1,002 Adults, May 2002
None of these
… government
… industry
Don’t know
… environmentalgroups
Scientists working for…
Source: MORI/OST
16
Caribbean
Base: 100-400 elite public in each country, Dec 2003 – Jan 2004
Trust in Institutions
Q How much do you trust each institution to do what is right?
Trust
Source: Edelman
BrazilNGOs
Business
Government 54%
60%
64%
USANGOs
Business
Government 48%
51%
47%
EuropeNGOs
Business
Government 31%
40%
41%
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CaribbeanOutline of the Presentation
Background to the research
Trust: the essential ingredient
Democracy in the Caribbean
Conclusions
18
CaribbeanDemocracy: The research queries
• What are the necessary and sufficient conditions to establish, develop and maintain a sustainable democracy?
• Can any culture carry democratic values? Are there universal values?
• Is democracy an evolving concept?
• What is the relationship between economic development and democracy?
• How much does an economic crisis impact the consolidation of democracy?
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Caribbean
• Opinion Barometers in Asia, Africa, Latin America and also the Caribbean show that democracy is sustainable.
• There is no evidence yet discovered of any culture that cannot carry democratic values.
• We have found incongruencies between culture and structure in many societies.
• While the formal structure imposes certain authority relations, these do not reach consensus nor legitimacy in society.
• There are incongruencies between real collective behavior and the one
anticipated.
Democracy: The research findings
20
CaribbeanHappiness in the Eastern Caribbean States
Base: c. 500 interviews in each country, Fieldwork February - March 2001
Source: MORI International (www.mori.com)
-24
Q “Overall, how happy would you say that you are with your life at the moment?”
Total%
Antigua %
Dominica%
Grenada%
ST K.%
St Lucia%
St V.%
Very happy 36 36 38 31 51 28 33
Fairly happy 42 39 42 42 37 41 46
Fairly unhappy 4 4 3 3 2 5 5
Very unhappy 4 3 4 4 2 6 6
Net Happy +71 +68 +73 +72 +84 +58 +75
Neither/don’t know 14 18 13 20 8 20 10
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CaribbeanSatisfaction with Democracy in the Eastern Caribbean States
Base: c. 500 interviews in each country, Fieldwork February - March 2001
Source: MORI International (www.mori.com)
-24
Q “How satisfied would you say that you are with the way democracy works in <<COUNTRY>>?”
Total%
Antigua %
Dominica%
Grenada%
ST K.%
St Lucia%
St V.%
Very satisfied 12 11 16 10 5 15 18
Fairly satisfied 35 20 46 44 44 29 29
Not verysatisfied
25 20 20 23 28 33 26
Not at allsatisfied
14 17 9 17 8 12 22
Net Satisfied +8 -6 +33 +14 +23 -1 -1
Don’t know 12 31 8 7 13 9 4
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CaribbeanSatisfaction with Governance in the Eastern Caribbean States
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Antigua%
Dominica%
Grenada%
ST Kitts%
St Lucia%
St Vincent%
Works extremely well andcould not be improved
Could be improved in smallways but mainly works well
Could be improved quite alot/
Needs a great deal ofimprovement
No opinion
Don’t know
Refused
Base: c. 500 interviews in each country, Fieldwork February - March 2001
Source: MORI International (www.mori.com)
4% 3%6% 5%1%
5% 5%
27% 20% 33% 29% 30% 22% 25%
27%
20%
28% 28% 36% 30% 23%
30% 26%
30%
30% 20% 32% 43% 29%
31% 27% 31% 34% 36% 26% 30%
57% 49% 66% 62% 56% 58% 54%
Q. “Which of the statements bests best describes your opinion on the present system of governing…?”
-26-26 -23 -36-35-25-24-18
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Caribbean
R2 = 0.1614
20%
40%
60%
80%
0% 100%
Correlation between ‘happy’ and ‘satisfied’
Happy
Satisfied
Base: c. 500 interviews in each country, Fieldwork February - March 2001
St Lucia
Antigua
St Kitts
Dominica
Grenada
St Vincent
Q “How satisfied would you say that you are with the way democracy works in <<COUNTRY>>?”Q “Overall, how happy or unhappy would you say that you are with your life at the moment?”
24
Caribbean
R2 = 0.8862
20%
40%
60%
80%
0% 100%
Correlation between ‘governing’ and ‘satisfied’
Governing ‘works well’
Satisfied
Base: c. 500 interviews in each country, Fieldwork February - March 2001
St Lucia
Antigua
St Kitts
Dominica
Grenada
St Vincent
Q “How satisfied would you say that you are with the way democracy works in <<COUNTRY>>?”Q. “Which of the statements bests best describes your opinion on the present system of governing…?”
25
CaribbeanOutline of the Presentation
Background to the research
Trust: the essential ingredient
Democracy in the Caribbean
Conclusions
26
Caribbean Conclusions
Trust in institutions in Britain has been measured for more than 20 years, in Latin America for 10, the ‘base-line’ in the Caribbean in 2001; commonly held beliefs about declining trust are myths
Survey data is like a road map; if you know where you want to know, it can tell you the direction you must travel, and the roadblocks on the way
Trust is built slowly, but can quick to decline
Survey data can identify misconceptions (mis-perceptions) and communications can correct these, if there is time and effective dialogue
There are four stages of effective communications: – Awareness– Involvement– Persuasion– Action
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Caribbean Conclusions
Of the 14 institutions measured in the Caribbean, the church stands out as having the highest proportion who have confidence in it; banks, TV and radio take second place only to the church. Teachers also have a high standing.
Political parties, Parliaments and Prime Ministers are the institutions in which the fewest Caribbean citizens have confidence in.
Only around half the public say they have confidence in the law and those who are responsible for enforcing it: the police and judges.
TV and radio are trusted by a greater proportion of Caribbean citizens that have confidence in their newspapers.
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CaribbeanMistakes dent rather than destroy
Have built trust: dug the “well of goodwill”
Address the problem openly and effectively
Make reparation when appropriate
Re-stock the well of goodwill
. . . IF YOU
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CaribbeanA Blueprint for Survival
1. Try to hit the issues before they hit you
2. Create a virtuous cycle of words and actions
3. Exorcise corporate-speak
4. Get staff on board
5. Remember – only you are responsible for building trust and confidence in your institutions, others are mainly trying to destroy it.
33
Caribbean ESTABLISHMENT OF DEMOCRACY
Traditional authoritarian rule is confronted with the new democratic authority demands.
Individuals do not submit to democratic rule if they perceive that the State does not defend the common good.
The necessary transformation is the one that gives evidence to people that the State pursues a common good, in order to legitimately submit their freedom to the rule of law.
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Caribbean
Democracy is an expectation. Corruption and social mobility are the most powerful explanatory variables in predicting democratic values.
Both involve trust in the system to allow equal oportunities through fair education, and accountability as an instrument of controlling corruption.
Trust is a critical element of the consolidation of democracy. It must be built on the basis of justice and fairness in people’s everyday life experience.
CONCLUSIONS: WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
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CaribbeanCONCLUSIONS: WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
People become indifferent to the type of regime, distancing themselves from the state and authority altogether, as a way of showing discontent with the system, rather than adopting authoritarian attitudes.
Those who have experienced social immobility through generations stop believing in democracy.
The link between economy and democracy becomes more complex when support for democracy depends, partially, on the capacity of the system to give better possibilities to the following generation.
36
Caribbean
This engenders political apathy. What causes political apathy is longer-term effect of permanent change in status from one generation to the other.
Education, which is not seen regularly as an important factor, plays an crucial role in this process. Education is the most significant variable to produce democratic values. Reduction of structural poverty through education is the most important factor to reduce the gap between expectations of the economic development and democracy.
CONCLUSIONS: WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
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Caribbean
The outcome of winning the battle against corruption is increased support for democracy. It increases confidence in institutions, gives legitimacy to the system, and to the principle of “representation”.
The increase of education levels explains to a large extent contemporary social movements seen in different countries of the region. People defend their rights because they increasingly see themselves as “citizens”.
At the same time however, there is the populist demand of the less well educated which threatens political stability.
CONCLUSIONS: WHERE ARE WE HEADING?