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Cardiff Local Development Plan2006 - 2026

H. Sewta Rail Strategy

September 2013

Sewta Rail Strategy 2013 Final Report

March 2013

Sewta Rail Strategy Final Report March 2013.doc

Document Control Sheet BPP 04 F8 Version 14 July 2012

Project: Sewta Rail Strategy Study 2013 Project No: B1874900 Client: South East Wales Transport Alliance (Sewta) Document Title: Final Report Ref. No:

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Executive summary

Introduction The Sewta Rail Strategy sets out the investment which the combined local authorities in South East Wales believe is needed to ensure a robust and efficient rail network over the next 20 years. The strategy is planned to accommodate passengers in comfort and encourage growth of both rail passengers and freight in an environmentally sustainable form. The key changes in the rail network over this period will be re-signalling of the Cardiff area, including capacity increases for passengers and freight, electrification and re-franchising of passenger services. Sewta are strongly engaged with the Welsh Government to help develop these programmes. The Rail Strategy sets out a package of measures that will create a rail network meeting the economic and social needs of the region. The strategy is complementary with the possible development of a South Wales Metro, which is part of a bigger vision currently under consideration. The Rail Strategy presented is considered to be affordable and deliverable within the existing regulatory framework and governance structures. Strategic Context The ‘Capital Network’ of Wales, as defined in the Wales Spatial Plan, covers the journey to work areas of Cardiff and Newport, which are at the heart of the Sewta region. This is the most intensively developed area of Wales, with almost half of the national population living within this region, and with 95% of those people living in urban areas. Sewta has the busiest roads in Wales and traffic conditions on the Cardiff and Newport radial highways result in major delays to all vehicles. It is the most economically active area in Wales, with more than half the nations’ economic activity. The traffic is not confined to the urban road network, with extensive congestion also affecting the strategic highway network and especially the M4 within the region. It is therefore not surprising that the Cardiff hinterland has the most intensively used urban rail network in the UK outside of London and the Integrated Transport Authority areas. Transport has a key role to play in achieving the economic, social and environmental objectives for the region. In particular, improved accessibility will help to reduce the disparity between the economies of the Valleys to the north of Cardiff and Newport and of the towns and cities along the coastal plain. The Wales Spatial Plan and the National and Regional Transport Plans recognise the importance of improved accessibility and improved connectivity between areas of need and areas of opportunity. Further investment in rail will build upon the existing regional assets and is a cost-effective means of securing the required aims and objectives. Rail transport is an important part of the public transport network, especially for longer distance journeys. Rail plays a critical role in delivering accessibility for journeys to work, and also for leisure and tourism, which are important elements of the South Wales economy. Encouraging sustainable shopping, access to the countryside, access to specific leisure locations and reverse commuting are key benefits that improved rail travel can bring.


Rail is also important for the movement of freight, which has been an important dimension of the development and use of the rail network in the region. Whilst the bulk freight markets that rail is well suited for have declined in recent years, there are important traffic flows in the region including coal, steel and aggregates. Despite the economic recession, between 2006 and 2011 there was a 2% growth in rail tonne-kms and Inter-modal traffic grew by 29% over the same period. Inter-modal rail freight traffic has grown faster than road freight since 2004. Future rail freight is forecast to growth by around 8% to 2030 to and from Wales. However, coal traffic is forecast to decline whilst Inter-modal (domestic and maritime containers) will increase by 16% per annum. Most inter-modal traffic is destined for the major urban areas and the forecast growth may therefore result in capacity pressures on existing terminals in the region. The Welsh Government and Sewta have policies to encourage more transfer of traffic from road to rail freight. Transport investment in South East Wales, and rail investment in particular, should therefore be a high priority for the Welsh Government. Investment in rail provides a sustainable transport solution to these problems, providing improved access between the Valleys and the Cities, and along the M4 Corridor by attracting car trips and reducing congestion in the region. The recent Welsh Government decision to review the need to invest in an M4 Relief Road to the south of Newport adds to the need to improve public transport services in the corridor as part of the strategy to resolve strategic highway network problems. The objective must also be to break down the barriers which, in spite of enhancing the infrastructure, still work against modal shift. A holistic “door to door” approach needs to be taken which considers the wider issues such as pricing, punctuality, cleanliness, upkeep, information, security and customer service. Building on Success Sewta and its partners has had significant recent successes in developing and implementing a range of rail network and services improvements, which have met or exceeded their passenger demand forecasts. These include; • Five lines reopened since 1985 – Aberdare Line, City Line (Cardiff), Maesteg

Line, Vale of Glamorgan Line and Ebbw Valley Line; • 34 new stations on the reopened lines and at Llanharan;

• Increased service levels from Hourly to Half hourly to Aberdare and Merthyr

Tydfil and from 3 trains per hour to 4 trains per hour between Cardiff and Bargoed;

• Providing a combined station at Abercynon with 4 trains per hour and a

strategic park and ride site;

• Valley Lines Platform Lengthening and train lengthening, and;

• Station improvements at several locations including additional car parking spaces, improved access, improved shelters and information.

Sewta’s investment has contributed to achieving rail passenger growth above the UK average.


In addition, through previous rail strategy studies Sewta has directly influenced enhancement of the rail network including; • Improved operational efficiency and increased train capacity in the core

journey to work area of Cardiff, secured within the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal (CASR) project. The Welsh Government and Network Rail are committed to increasing rail capacity between Cardiff Queen Street – Cardiff Central and Cogan Junction plus additional turn-back platforms at Pontypridd, Caerphilly and Barry between 2013 and 2015. This includes extending platform lengths on the Barry line to accommodate 6-cars trains;

• The Welsh National Transport Plan (NTP) includes increasing service

frequencies to half hourly to Maesteg, Rhymney and on the Vale of Glamorgan Line and providing two new stations at Energlyn and Brackla. These schemes are integrated with the CASR programme;

• Increased train capacity, plus journey time improvements, through

electrification of the Valley Lines between 2015 and 2019 including cascading 3-car electric trains to replace current 2-car trains. The business case was approved by the Welsh Government in 2012 and is being progressed by Network Rail for delivery within their Control Period 5.

The Sewta Rail Strategy builds on those successes and plans. Sewta Rail Strategy Elements Sewta has an important role to play in the development of the Transport Plan for the Capital Region in Wales. In order to ensure that the appropriate contribution is made by rail, the Sewta Rail Strategy Review Studies were undertaken to refresh and extend the strategy to 2030. The strategy seeks to develop a number of additional services, which will benefit from being pursued in tandem with planned and committed rail investment. In particular; Network Rail’s major signalling renewal projects in the region in the short / medium term, and; electrification of the Valley Lines and South Wales Main Line. In the last decade rail passenger demand on the Valley Lines1 has been growing at around 6% per annum with some lines experiencing 80% growth between 2000 and 2009, significantly higher than the average for the UK. Recent data analysis suggests that this high rate of demand growth is continuing and will result in significant train capacity problems requiring additional network capacity. The Sewta Rail Strategy balances the various levels of investment and considers other external factors. It is based on three ‘themes’; • Coping with Growth; • Quick Wins, and;

• Increasing the reach of the Network.

1 In this context Valley Lines includes the Aberdare, Abergavenny, Barry Island, Cardiff Bay, City Line, Coryton, Chepstow, Ebbw Vale, Maesteg, Merthyr, Penarth, Rhymney, Treherbert and Vale of Glamorgan routes.


“Coping with Growth” • Additional rolling stock is required to strengthen peak trains to address

passenger growth and to avoid overcrowding. Rolling stock renewal coupled with electrification of the Valley Lines will provide more suitable rolling stock in the medium / long term that is more capable of meeting the punishing local requirements, however, some further issues remain;

“Quick Wins” (not requiring major capital or lease costs); • Station enhancements; including improved station facilities, information,

security and access (e.g. additional parking and modern interchange facilities).

• Incremental service improvements; New Sunday services on the Maesteg

Line and Coryton Line; additional Sunday services on other lines; additional early morning and later evening services;

• Further line improvements and station improvements (e.g. Station Travel

Plans). In the medium term coupled with the investment in electrification of the Valley Lines to maximise the benefits to the region through capturing the full value of electrification including line speed improvements and transforming all aspects of rail travel through addressing access issues and passenger comfort at stations;

• Frequency enhancements on existing lines; improving the levels of service

on selected routes to meet passengers’ minimum service level expectations and encourage increased transfer of car trips to rail. Specifically to provide new services on the;

- Rhymney Line (between Rhymney and Bargoed) with a new station at

Energlyn;

- Maesteg Line (half-hourly) with a new station at Brackla;

- Vale of Glamorgan Line (Half hourly).

- Barry – Cardiff - additional peak services to reduce overcrowding;

- Caerphilly – Cardiff - enabling faster running of Rhymney line services;

- Pontypridd – Cardiff - enabling faster running of some longer distance services;

- Ebbw Valley Line - between Ebbw Vale and Newport;

- Abergavenny Line;

- Chepstow Line, and;

- Cardiff – Bristol line with additional calls at Severn Tunnel Junction.


Additional services on the Valley Lines to the north and south of Cardiff are required to cope with the continued growth in passenger demand and will require a significant investment in the capacity of the network between Cardiff Queen Street North Junction and Cogan Junction. This is currently being developed as an enhancement option within the CASR scheme by 2015 and will also provide capacity and operating flexibility for serving expanded rail freight facilities at Cwmbargoed; Several of the recommended investments should be packaged to form an M4 Corridor Strategy to provide realistic alternatives to car use in this congested corridor including measures to encourage greater use of rail freight. “Increasing the Reach of the Network”; • New stations coupled with frequency enhancements improve access to

the rail network integrated with the development of improved services. Specifically at;

• Albany Road / Crwys Road and Upper Boat with the CASR

programme;

• Caerleon, St Mellons, Coedkernew and Llanwern with new services on the Abergavenny and Chepstow Lines. With those on the South Wales Main Line between Cardiff and Newport sited on the Relief Lines;

• St Fagans with improved services to Maesteg and possible new

service to Llantrisant and Beddau.

• At Crumlin and Pye Corner on the Ebbw Vale Line, coupled with new services between Ebbw Vale and Newport;

• Network extensions and new stations; further improving access to the rail

network through extending the rail network;

• Ebbw Vale Parkway to Ebbw Vale Town; possibly coupled with the further hourly service to Newport;

• Aberdare to Hirwaun; with new stations at Trecynon and Hirwaun;

• Ystrad Mynach to Bedlinog; extending the planned Cardiff –

Caerphilly local services after the re-signalling capacity enhancement and electrification (with new stations at Nelson, Trelewis and Bedlinog);

• Cardiff – Abertillery new service on the Ebbw Vale line involving a

short line extension and new station at Abertillery;

• Cardiff to Llantrisant and Beddau (with stations at St Fagans, Talbot Green, Llantrisant, Gwaun Meisgyn & Beddau) following further business case development and options comparisons, and;

• Caerphilly – Machen – Newport in the longer term.


The business cases for network extension options improved with electrification, due to reductions in operating costs as well as forecast demand increases. It will be important for the local authorities to protect the sites for new lines, stations, freight terminals and park and ride facilities through the planning process to enable the schemes to be realised. Value for Money The appraisal of initiatives included assessment of value for money. This was used, alongside achievement of other social, economic and environmental objectives, in selecting projects for inclusion within the strategy and programming. Investment Programme and Costs. The revised Sewta Rail Strategy prioritised programme takes account of; • The need to deliver the Wales Spatial Plan in terms of investment in

transport to meet the social, economic and environmental objectives; • The need to integrate schemes with the Network Rail Signalling Renewal

projects in the region and electrification programme;

• The need for short term development of some of the longer term strategy schemes to ensure that passive provision is provided in the ongoing Signalling Renewal and electrification processes;

• The timetable for land-use development in the vicinity of stations where

relevant to the justification of the schemes; and

• Key stages of development in accordance with Network Rail’s GRIP process. The programme recognises the importance of the CASR process in ensuring that the opportunity for the major enhancement in the critical Queen Street North Junction to Cogan Junction section of the network in the strategy period is provided in the most efficient and effective manner. This capacity enhancement is considered a high priority within the strategy due to the identified capacity constraint, which not only leads to reliability problems but also militates against increases in passenger and freight services. The capital costs estimated for the schemes within the programme average £19.5m per annum (2010 prices). This excludes the capital investment within the Network Rail Signalling Renewal schemes and the associated enhancement options and excludes the costs of electrification. Additional subsidy costs associated with the rolling stock required for capacity enhancements and additional services increase over the initial ten years of the strategy to between £13m and £15m per year (2010 prices). Thereafter the increasing revenues offset additional operating costs. The majority of that increase occurs in 2020 when the electrification of the Valley Lines will produce a substantial reduction in operating costs and subsidy.


Recommendations The recommendations of the Sewta Rail Strategy take into account existing and future known rail freight requirements. However, further work needs to be undertaken to develop a more positive freight strategy by liaising with freight generators and operators to identify potential markets to attract to rail and any additional terminal requirements. The region’s inter-modal terminal at Wentloog is the least well used of its type in the UK. It is recommended that Sewta works closely with the Welsh Government to provide funding support to Network Rail and Sewta, working through its Rail Working Group, to further develop schemes in the short term for medium / long term delivery, including developing packages of station improvements. It is recommended that Sewta works with the Welsh Government to plan for the funding and delivery of the Sewta Rail Strategy, including securing additional rolling stock in the short-term and rolling stock renewal with electrification in the medium term. It is recommended that Sewta use the results of this study to formulate requests for changes to be delivered through the forthcoming Great Western franchise and the revised Wales and Borders franchise in 2018. It is recommended that Sewta works closely with the Welsh Government and Network Rail in developing the proposals for electrification of the Valley Lines including the optimising the business case though assessment of how best to utilise the improved performance of the rolling stock, such as through serving additional stations (such as at St Fagans and St Mellons) or reducing journey times. It is recommended that Sewta works closely with the rail industry to secure extension of the electrified network to other regional lines (Marches Line and Chepstow / Gloucester Line) in Network Rails Control Period 6 (post 2020). It is recommended that Sewta presses the Welsh Government and WEFO to accept the Rail Strategy and maximise opportunities to secure EU Convergence funding to assist in the delivery of the programme. It is recommended that Sewta continues to work closely with Network Rail and Arriva Trains Wales to plan and implement the strategy and to continue to work in partnership with them and the other passenger and freight train operators that provide services within South East Wales. It is recommended that the Rail Strategy is taken forward through further investigation of the business cases for individual elements and packages of schemes including further investigation of the benefits for users of new stations, and through integration of station and access improvements with electrification to transform the rail travel experience and maximise the benefits for the region.


Contents

1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context 1 1.2 Building on Success 1 1.3 Background and Study Process 2

2 POLICY CONTEXT 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 The Wales Spatial Plan 4 2.3 The Wales Transport Strategy 6 2.4 National Transport Plan for Wales 7 2.5 Sewta Regional Transport Plan (RTP) 8 2.6 UK Government and Industry Rail Objectives 9 2.6.1 Wales Rail Planning Assessment (RPA) 2007 10 2.6.2 Wales Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) 2008 11 2.6.3 Electrification 11 2.7 Summary 12

3 RAIL CONTEXT 13 3.1 Existing Network 13 3.2 Capacity Constraints 14 3.2.1 General 14 3.2.2 South Wales Main Line 15 3.2.3 Cardiff Valleys 15 3.2.4 Branches East of Cardiff 16 3.3 Signalling and Renewal Projects 17 3.4 Strategic Vision 17 3.5 Timetable Issues 18 3.6 Rail within the Sewta Transport Hierarchy 19 3.7 Summary 21

4 SEWTA RAIL STRATEGY 23 4.1 Passenger Growth and Capacity Issues 23 4.1.1 Rolling Stock Requirements 23 4.1.2 Rail Freight Growth and Capacity Issues 25 4.2 Sewta Rail Strategy Components 25 4.2.1 Coping with Growth 26 4.2.2 Quick Wins for Passengers 26 4.2.3 M4 Corridor 28 4.2.4 Increasing the Reach of the Network 28 4.3 Summary 30

5 STRATEGY DELIVERY AND PROGRAMME 32 5.1 Introduction 32 5.2 Short Term Strategy – to 2015 (CP4) 32 5.3 Medium Term Strategy, 2015 – 2020 (CP5) 34


5.4 Longer Term Plan – post 2020 35 5.5 Summary 38

6 Rail Strategy Costs and Outcomes 40 6.1 Strategy Costs 40 6.2 Strategy Outcomes 41

7 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER WORK 42 Appendix A Summary of Capacity Analysis Issues Appendix B Summary of Rail Freight Issues Appendix C Network Capacity / Operations Review Appendix D Summary of Engineering Reviews Appendix E Summary of Scheme Appraisals

Sewta Rail Strategy Final Report March 2013.doc 1

1 Introduction

1.1 Context

This report has been prepared by Jacobs for Sewta (South East Wales Transport Alliance) in support of bids for funding for delivering a 20 year programme of rail network and service improvements. The South East Wales Transport Alliance is a joint committee of the ten local authorities in South East Wales. They work with transport industry partners and user group representatives to deliver co-ordinated and effective transport services for the region and beyond. Sewta has produced its’ Regional Transport Plan including undertaking a number of modal studies to prepare the context and strategies across the region. In particular, Sewta previously developed and, with Welsh Government and European funding, are implementing a Rail Investment Programme2 and undertook a Rail Strategy Study3 to examine the requirements of the network to 2018. In parallel they undertook work to produce regional bus and walking and cycling strategies. The Rail Strategy was reviewed and rolled forward in 20114 to update the programme and cover the period to 2030, including the Wales and Borders Franchise replacement, investment in the new generation of High Speed Trains and electrification of Great Western services between London. In the development of the previous Sewta Rail Strategy the second M4 around Newport was assumed but has subsequently been shelved in favour of a range of other measures including public transport improvements. In 2012 the Welsh Government announced plans for the electrification of the Valley Lines in 2020. This report presents the results of a further review of the Rail Strategy, taking account of the investment plans. 1.2 Building on Success

Sewta and its partners has had significant recent successes in developing and implementing a range of rail network and services improvements, which have met or exceeded their passenger demand forecasts. These include; • Valley Lines Platform Lengthening and train lengthening; • Increased service levels from Hourly to Half hourly to Aberdare and Merthyr

Tydfil and from 3 trains per hour to 4 trains per hour between Cardiff and Bargoed;

• Opening of the Vale of Glamorgan Line between Barry and Bridgend with new stations at Llantwit Major and Rhoose for Cardiff International Airport;

• Opening a new station at Llanharan; • Introducing a new service between Cardiff and the Ebbw Valley with stations

at Rogerstone, Risca, Cross Keys, Newbridge, Llanhilleth and Ebbw Vale Parkway, and;

• Providing a combined station at Abercynon with 4 trains per hour and a strategic park and ride site.

2 Moving People – Improving Rail, The Next Five Years, July 2005 3 Sewta Rail Strategy Study 2009 – 2018, January 2006, Jacobs Consultancy 4 Sewta Rail Strategy Review and Roll Forward Study, October 2011, Jacobs Consultancy


The 2013 Sewta Rail Strategy builds on the 2011 programme, updating the investment programme to 2030, covering the renewal of the Wales and Borders Rail Franchise in 2018 and the proposed electrification of the Great Western Main Line and Valley Lines network. Gap analysis has revealed that the most significant gaps in the delivery of previous plans relate to the development of services and new stations east of Cardiff. 1.3 Background and Study Process

The Sewta Rail Strategy has been developed to meet the requirements of the region and accords with the principles contained within the Welsh Transport Appraisal Guidance (WelTAG). The strategy is objective driven and guided by national and regional planning policy, meeting the economic, social and environmental objectives and identified problems in the region. The elements of the strategy have been assessed against appraisal criteria drawn from the national and regional objectives related to transport. A wide range of initiatives and interventions were measured against the objectives using multi-criteria analysis, supported by technical assessment. The strategy has been consulted on with rail industry stakeholders both in the development of the strategy contents and the investment programme. Consultation revealed significant support for the need to improve rail transport in the Sewta area and broad agreement in terms of the programme priorities. The resulting Rail Strategy built on the identified role of rail in the transport hierarchy in the region, serving medium and longer distance journeys, providing sub-regional connectivity, providing a realistic alternative to private car travel to the Capital and sub-regional activity centres. Also, the potential for rail to secure modal shift and the opportunity to form a significant element of the M4 corridor strategy to resolve highway congestion issues between Cardiff and the Severn crossings. The 2012/13 review of the strategy updated the technical analysis in the light of forthcoming electrification of the Valley Lines and South Wales Main Line. This involved developing up-to-date demand forecasting and appraisal models, revised capital costs and revised operating costs. This led to revised value for money assessments of the strategy elements. The Rail Programme has been updated and revised to take account of both Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal and Electrification programmes. This report presents the revised Sewta rail strategy.


2 POLICY CONTEXT

2.1 Introduction

The South East Wales Transport Alliance (Sewta) includes 10 authorities in the Wales Spatial Plan defined ‘Capital Network’ of Wales, covering the journey to work areas of Cardiff and Newport Cities and stretching to the Heads of the Valleys in the North, Bridgend in the West and the English border in the east. The region also serves the peripheral Western Valleys and is an important link between England and South West Wales. The region has an industrial history and, as a result of the recent change in the local economy, there is a marked difference in economic activity and employment levels between the South Wales Valleys (including Ebbw Vale, Maesteg and Merthyr Tydfil) and the Coastal Plain (including Cardiff, Newport and Bridgend). The dominance of Cardiff and Newport, which provide services and functions for the region, results in significant travel demands north – south between these Cities and the Valleys and also east - west along the coastal plain and across the mid-valleys area. The region also contains a key east – west transport corridor between South West Wales and England. Key Statistics for the Capital Region are; • Most intensively developed area of Wales with half of the population in just

14% of the land area of the country; • 95% of the Capital Region’s population live in urban areas;

• It is the most economically active area of Wales with more than half the

economic activity of the whole of Wales and consequently the highest commuter flows;

• The Capital Region accounts for a third of all tourism revenue to Wales;

• There is more traffic in South East Wales than anywhere else in the country

Significant congestion problems exist on strategic routes such as the M4 and also in main urban areas;

• The Sewta region has the busiest roads in Wales and traffic conditions on

the Cardiff and Newport radials cause major delays to all vehicles, including buses;

• Congestion also occurs in the Valleys, where topography limits the ability of

the local road network;

• The region requires economic regeneration, especially in the valleys to the north of Cardiff, Newport and Bridgend. The Gross Value Added (GVA)/Capita of the Central Valleys of South Wales was 58.4% of the UK average in 2008. This compares with Cardiff City which had a GVA/Capita of 108% of the UK Average;

• The region has the most socially deprived areas and, as a result, the lowest

levels of household access to a car (72%);


• It has the most intensively used urban rail network outside of London and the

UK Integrated Transport Authority areas; and

• The majority of the Air Quality Management Areas in Wales are in the Sewta region – in Cardiff, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly and Monmouthshire;

The transport policy context for Sewta is presented within a number of interrelated national and regional planning documents covering Social, Economic and Environmental objectives for Wales. The Wales Spatial Strategy, Wales Transport Strategy, National Transport Plan for Wales and Sewta Regional Transport Plan have been published. The Sewta Rail Strategy was developed to meet the national and regional objectives, recognising the important contribution that rail can make to alleviating the region’s transport problems. 2.2 The Wales Spatial Plan

The Wales Spatial Plan5 provides the strategic planning and transport vision for the Nation and defines area strategies for the delivery of sustainable development. It defined South East Wales as the ‘Capital Region’ of 1.4 million people within which it defines two centres of national importance (Cardiff and Newport Cities) and 12 other primary key settlements6. The priorities include ‘functioning as a networked city region on a scale to realise its international potential and national role’ and it is identified that ‘a fully integrated high quality transport system is necessary for this to happen’. The Spatial plan recognises the key economic spatial characteristics of the region identifying that ‘The legacy of industrial change has left stark contrasts between prosperity and deprivation’ – between the coastal plain and the Valleys to the north. The Plan identifies that ‘the Capital Region has to work in ways that spread prosperity and a first class quality of life to all’. The Spatial plan identifies three sub-areas of the Capital Region with differing characteristics and transport needs; • City Coastal Zone – with prosperity and relatively high quality of life; • Heads of the Valleys Plus – upper valleys facing ‘very considerable social

challenges created by economic restructuring of the late 20th century’, and; • Connections Corridor – mid valleys experiencing pressure for economic

and housing development spillage from the Cities and generally increasing prosperity.

The strategy recognises ‘Cardiff’s role as the key economic driver for the region’.. playing.. ‘a pivotal role as a key provider of higher level services, focusing on innovation and higher value added knowledge sectors’ and the Plan identifies three ‘Strategic Opportunity Areas’ (SOA’s) for targeting investment and growth; • Developments linked to the dualling of the Heads of the Valleys Road

(A465);

5 People, Places, Futures - The Wales Spatial Plan, 2008 Update, Welsh Assembly Government 6 Cardiff, Newport, Aberdare, Abergavenny, Barry, Blackwood, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Chepstow, Cwmbran / Pontypool, Ebbw Vale, Llantrisant, Merthyr Tydfil and Pontypridd.


• Around Llantrisant and North West Cardiff, and; • Vale of Glamorgan at St Athan. The ‘achieving sustainable accessibility’ section of the plan identifies that ‘Improving transport for all is central to making the Capital Region work and to the regeneration of the Valleys communities. The upward trend in car usage points to increasing congestion’ but that ‘road building in general is not a sustainable solution’. The key objectives include; • Making better use of the area’s existing transport infrastructure, to deliver

more sustainable access to jobs and services; • Stretching targets for improving journey times by bus and rail between the

key settlements; • Public transport should operate sufficiently frequently so that passengers

have the confidence to “turn up and go”; • Seating capacity should be sufficient to meet normal demand, reducing the

need for passengers to stand, and; • Reducing levels of traffic congestion and developing effective public

transport. The plan also identifies the importance of east-west links in the region and in terms of external transport links. The importance of Cardiff International Airport (and its need for good public transport access) is highlighted, along with the need to support the Ports and transfer freight to shipping and rail. The road and rail network extending along the coast and northward to the heads of the valleys is an important asset in the region enabling the plan to identify that ‘Strategic interventions, focused on regeneration and investment in the most deprived areas of the Capital Region, should be along sustainable transport corridors and support the key settlements’. The west of the Sewta area falls under the Western Valleys section of the ‘Swansea Bay – Waterfront and Western Valleys’ section of the plan. There are 3 identified primary key settlements at Bridgend, Maesteg and Porthcawl / Pyle. The plan identifies the objective to create a ‘network of interdependent settlements … with a modern competitive, knowledge-based economy … and excellent national and international connections. The key priorities include; • Improving accessibility including transport connections between the key

settlements; • Developing a cutting edge knowledge economy; • Reducing economic inactivity, and; • Developing a strong leisure and activity based tourism industry. Within this part of Wales the Spatial plan identifies a ‘critical factor will be to develop a strong network of urban centres … which spread prosperity to surrounding smaller settlements. Swansea is the regional capital and connectivity between Swansea and Bridgend (and Cardiff) is particularly important. For the more remote areas a ‘choice of transport to and from jobs and services’ in the key settlements is important. The plan identifies that ‘Bridgend has a particular role to play in linking with the future of the South East Wales city region and Carmarthen, to the Pembrokeshire Haven Spatial Plan Area.


2.3 The Wales Transport Strategy

The Wales Transport Strategy ‘One Wales: Connecting the Nation’ was produced in April 2008 and recognised that ‘Transport needs to play its part in reducing CO2 emissions and reducing car dependency’. It sets out the strategy to achieve social, economic and environmental outcomes with five key areas to make progress on; • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts; • Improving public transport and better integration between modes; • Improving links and access between key settlements and sites; • Enhancing international connectivity, and; • Increasing safety and security. There are three themes to the transport strategy; • Achieving a more effective and efficient transport system; • Achieving greater use of the more sustainable and healthy forms of travel,

and; • Minimising demands on the transport system The strategy identifies that rail passengers experience crowded trains, particularly at peak commuting times in the South East where rail has a significant market share of commuting trips. Also, lack of seating capacity on trains and a shortage of car parking spaces at some stations serves to suppress demand. Rail freight growth is expected to be driven by maritime containers – forecast to double by 2018 (Source: Wales Freight Strategy). Newport is the busiest UK port for iron and steel and significant tonnage also flows through Cardiff and Barry docks. The Transport Strategy defines 17 outcomes ranging from improved reliability and improved connectivity to adapting to climate changes and biodiversity. From which it defines strategic priorities and key actions, including; • Making more use of carbon efficient modes, including; shifting freight from

road to rail, and; mode shift to public transport, park and ride, walking and cycling;

• Better integrated transport, including; detailed feasibility studies of options

for rail improvements; supporting public transport networks and interchanges, and; removing the barriers to the transport network, and;

• Improving access between north and south Wales, including; more

frequent, higher capacity and quality public transport services between key settlements all over Wales. Encouraging more frequent and better quality public transport services between key settlements and employment sites; and tackling barriers – especially for disabled users.


2.4 National Transport Plan for Wales

The National Transport Plan for Wales was produced in March 2010 and sets out the investment plan to 2015 and beyond. It defines a specific aim for Improving Rail Services; • To improve the provision of, and access to, rail services, including

improvements for disabled people and vulnerable users, by 2014. In the east-west corridor in South Wales the plan notes that ‘Continued passenger growth on the rail network in South Wales and on the Valleys Lines is predicted, and the pinch-points on the network need to be addressed to provide sustainable travel options and create opportunities for economic growth and social inclusion. This corridor is also important because it provides access to many of our international gateways’. The Plan lists 99 transport measures across Wales including the following rail related measures in the Sewta Area; 6) All Wales entitlement card (by 2014), which will be a bus/rail smartcard. 74) Additional Platforms at Pontypridd, Caerphilly and Barry 75) Additional carriages to peak time services and new station at Energlyn; 76) Plans to introduce additional services on the lines from Pontypridd and

Caerphilly to Cardiff. 78) Additional half hourly services on Vale of Glamorgan lines following Network

Rail’s Cardiff Area Resignalling Scheme. 80) Extend the half hourly service from Maesteg to Cardiff and Brackla Station. 88) Improvements to Newport rail station. 89) Improvements to Gaer Junction (by 2011) followed by detailed feasibility

work for hourly services from Ebbw Vale to Cardiff and Newport. 90) Appraise feasibility of new station in Ebbw Vale Town. 91) Package of measures to deal with resilience, safety and reliability issues on

M4 around Newport. Many of these are measures were recommended in the 2006/07 Sewta Rail Strategy and Prioritised Investment Programme. Beyond 2015 the plan states ‘We want to see fast, reliable and affordable public transport services connecting major settlements. We want to develop strategic modal interchange sites around our towns and cities, which are well connected into local transport networks. We need to ensure that Wales is well connected into the wider UK and international transport networks. We want to see fast, frequent and reliable rail services to provide links to London, Manchester and beyond. We are keen to exploit fully the potential of our ports. We will work with the UK Government to spread electrification of rail beyond the planned electrification of the Great Western Main Line to Swansea’. Also, ‘We are investigating where we can bring disused or closed railway lines back into operation, starting with those that connect key settlements and sites, so that they can form part of the wider, integrated transport network’. In December 2011 the Welsh Government prioritised the National Transport Plan listing ongoing commitments, the programme for each year between 2011 and 2014 and scheme delayed to beyond 2015 including (a) express bus services between Cardiff and Cardiff Airport), and (b) new station at Ebbw Vale Town.


2.5 Sewta Regional Transport Plan (RTP)

The RTP was produced in March 2010. Its vision is; “A modern, accessible, integrated and sustainable transport system for South East Wales, which increases opportunity, promotes prosperity for all and protects the environment; where walking, cycling, public transport, and sustainable freight provide real travel alternatives”. By improving the transport system Sewta will assist in delivering the wider policy goals of; • Developing the economy; • Promoting social inclusion and equality, and; • Protecting the environment. To meet these aims Sewta’s defined RTP objectives relate to; • Safety and Security; • Connectivity and Accessibility; • Quality and Efficiency; • Environment, and; • Land use and Regeneration. Within the RTP’s defined priorities several relate to the Rail Strategy including; • Improving access for all; • Increasing the proportions of trips made by walking cycling and public

transport; • Developing an efficient, safe and reliable transport that improves links

between the 14 key settlements. • Significantly reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, and; • Making better use of the existing transport system. Policies and actions defined for rail are; • Rail Policy 1: Sewta supports improvements and further extensions to the

regional rail system. • Rail Policy 2: Sewta supports capacity improvements to facilitate

increased movement of freight by rail. • Rail Action 1; Sewta will develop plans to improve the regional rail system,

including plans for train/platform lengthening, line speed increases, frequency improvements, rolling stock improvements, station upgrades, capacity enhancements and to make services more accessible.

• Rail Action 2; Sewta will develop plans to extend the rail system through line and station re-openings.

In addition, several of the Integration policies and actions have implications for rail, particularly park and ride expansions, improved information, integrated ticketing and improved interchanges in the 14 key settlements.


2.6 UK Government and Industry Rail Objectives

The UK white paper for transport issued in January 2011 identified that the Government’s “vision is for a transport system that is an engine for economic growth, but one that is also greener and safer and improves quality of life in our communities”. The policy statement identifies that “by improving the links that move goods and people around, and by targeting investment in new projects that promote green growth, we can help to build the balanced, dynamic low carbon economy that is essential for our future prosperity.” Importance of transport in the economy is highlighted; “Economic growth is one of our biggest challenges. Transport’s role in this is hugely important – getting people to work and to services such as education and healthcare providers, as well to leisure activities and shops, is crucial to quality of life as well as to enhancing people’s spending power.” Transport plans should encourage sustainable local travel and economic growth by making public transport and cycling and walking more attractive and effective, promoting lower carbon transport and tackling local road congestion. Prioritising key rail projects is identified as important in achieving these aims. The current government policy on Rail is evolving with key activities related to value for money (particularly the structure of network rail and relationship between Network Rail and the Train Operating Companies) and franchising changes. However, it is understood that the role of rail remains as providing a fast, reliable and efficient service, particularly for inter-urban journeys and commuting into large urban areas. Previous White Papers recognised that the railways are a vital part of the country’s transport infrastructure, suffering from ‘historic under-investment’ and the need to tackle problems including; • Control of costs – working within the level of public funding available, and; • Improving performance for passengers and freight users. Whilst passengers consistently register improving performance (punctuality and reliability) as their highest priority they also value; • Cleanliness and quality of trains; • Quality of station facilities; • Improved journey times; • Personal security; • Good customer services; • Accurate and timely information; • Trains not being overcrowded; • Affordability; and, • Easily understood fares structure. Good performance on the Valley Lines network is made difficult by the infrastructure constraints including operating at the capacity level with only limited resilience to problems at Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central which is accentuated by the long single track sections on many branches.


It is expected that the Government will continue to support a policy that investment in rail should focus on what rail does best as part of a balanced transport policy – in particular; • Passenger rail is suited to serving long distance business and leisure travel,

and; • Concentrated markets, such as commuters into large urban areas. It is widely accepted that congestion and overcrowding may constrain economic growth and investment in transport is needed to prevent and alleviate these problems. Rail has a vital and essential role in managing road congestion and securing environmental benefits, especially in busy commuter areas. In investment planning the Government places a high importance on securing value for money and targeting investment in rail where it is most effective. Sewta has responsibility for developing their transport strategies and plans taking account of this issue, whilst also ensuring that investment supports the wider economic, social and environmental objectives of the region and passengers needs. 2.6.1 Wales Rail Planning Assessment (RPA) 2007

The Wales RPA was a joint Welsh Assembly Government and Department for Transport report which examined the potential growth in rail usage between 2006 and 2026 and what might to done to meet the growth. It included econometric analysis to develop detailed sub-regional demand growth forecasts to inform the Wales RUS and Government funding decisions for rail. The study took into account committed rail schemes and assessed the implications of further growth leading to defined issues in Wales of four themes; • Tackling Crowding; • Improving access to the rail network; • Improving the connectivity of services and; • Enhancing rail attractiveness. The report identified the importance of Cardiff in generating demand for rail passenger trips and that the most important rail priority in Wales is the enhancement of the capacity and capability of the infrastructure between Cardiff Queen Street north, Cardiff Central and Cogan Junction. The report also identified that many station car parks (mainly within the Sewta area) are regularly full in the morning peak and are a constraint to rail achieving its full potential. The identified approaches to dealing with short, medium and longer term problems are incorporated within the Sewta Rail Strategy. Indeed some recommendations have been delivered (eg Ebbw Vale Line) or incorporated within Network Rail’s investment programmes.


2.6.2 Wales Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) 2008

This study by Network Rail defined the plan to deliver capacity for rail services to meet the requirements of passenger and freight markets, in particular for the Control Period 4 (2009 – 2014). It analysed the pressure on the rail network, planned investment, identification of gaps and options and defined the strategy. The strategy contained some elements of the Sewta Rail Strategy but recommended others postponed to later control periods. The Sewta Rail Strategy builds on the RUS and looks ahead to 2030. 2.6.3 Electrification

In Summer 2012 the UK and Welsh Governments announced the High Level Output and Statement of Funds Available for investment in Rail between 2014/15 and 2018/19. The announcements included commitments to electrify the South Wales Main Line between London and Swansea via Cardiff and to electrify the Valley Lines in South East Wales. The electrification will include all lines north of Cardiff plus the Vale of Glamorgan, Penarth, Maesteg and Ebbw Vale Lines. The Valley Lines Business Case7 identified the rationale for intervention based on;

- Improving Value for Money – and the need for replacement of the Valley Lines rolling stock (Pacer and Sprinter units which are over 25 years old);

- Supporting Economic Growth (the key role of the Valley Lines in

supporting connectivity between the valleys communities and Capital and supporting growth in rail patronage above the UK as a whole) ;

- Delivering a Better Deal for Passengers (journey time savings, increased

train capacity and quality);

- Building on Recent Investment (Line re-openings, platform lengthening and capacity improvements to be delivered through the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal project);and

- Delivering Environmental Objectives (20% to 30% reduction in Carbon

emissions);

- Other Imperatives for Change (Wales and Borders Franchise renewal in 2018)

The business case study included a revised market assessment (replacing the demand forecasts from the Wales RUS). This forecasts continued growth of 3.1% per annum beyond 2018. This is against a background growth reported as 4.3% per annum between 2000 and 2010 (excluding the effects of new lines and stations). The business case is based on the substantial operating cost savings of electric trains over diesel trains in terms of rolling stock leasing /purchase costs, maintenance costs, fuel costs, fleet availability including improved reliability. The business case assumes cascade of rolling stock from major investments committed in London and the South East.

7 Valley Lines Electrification, Outline Business Case, Welsh Government / Arup, June 2012.


2.7 Summary

The Sewta region contains areas with the highest social, economic and environmental problems in Wales as well as areas with the strongest growth in Wales. In particular, social and economic problems are prevalent in the South Wales and Western Valleys, whilst in the primary cities of Cardiff and Newport significant economic growth has resulted in environmental problems from increasing car traffic. The rail network connects the South Wales Valleys with Cardiff and Newport contributing to balancing the needs economic and social needs of the region. Investment in rail provides a sustainable transport solution to these problems – providing improved access between the Valleys, Coastal Plain and the M4 Corridor and the Cities and, by attracting car trips to rail, reduces congestion in the urban areas. Transport investment is an important element of the Spatial Strategy and rail investment in South East Wales is a high priority of the Welsh Government. Sewta has an important role in the development of the Transport Plan for the Capital Region in Wales and the Western Valleys and in ensuring the appropriate contribution is made by rail to the creation of that balanced transport policy in the travel to work areas of Cardiff, Newport and Bridgend. Therefore Sewta contends an increased proportion of Welsh Government expenditure on rail should be focused here in South East Wales.


3 RAIL CONTEXT

3.1 Existing Network

The existing rail network within the Sewta Region (Figure 1) is focused on Cardiff and comprises: • The South Wales Main Line (SWML) running east-west between Pyle /

Bridgend and Severn Tunnel Junction and providing for services beyond the region to Swansea and West Wales, the West Country, South Coast, Midlands and London;

• The Vale of Glamorgan coastal route between Bridgend and Cardiff via Barry, with branches to Barry Island and Penarth;

• The Maesteg Line north of Bridgend; • The Lines to the North of Cardiff serving;

• Treherbert via Pontypridd and Porth; • Aberdare via Pontypridd and Abercynon; • Merthyr Tydfil via Pontypridd and Abercynon; and • Rhymney Valley via Caerphilly and Bargoed.

• The Coryton Line serving north Cardiff; • The Cardiff Bay Branch running south from Cardiff Queen Street Station; • The City Line serving Radyr and providing an alternative route to Pontypridd

via west Cardiff; • The Ebbw Valley Line; • The Abergavenny (Marches) Line north of Newport, with services to north

Wales and north west England; and • The Gloucester line north of Severn Tunnel Junction, serving Caldicot and

Chepstow with services to the Midlands. Figure 1 Existing Network Capacity Constraints

Aberdare MerthyrRhymney Abergavenny

Treherbert Ebbw Vale

BargoedAbercynon

Porth To Cheltenham

PontypriddCaerphilly

CorytonMaesteg

Radyr

Heath Jn

Cardiff Queen StreetBridgend

Swansea Cardiff Central Newport Severn Tunnel Jn To Bristol

Barry Cardiff Bay

PenarthBarry Island

Merthyr Vale

Ystrad Rhondda

Tondu

Crosskeys

Riska S Jn

Park Jn

Gloucester

Chepstow


3.2 Capacity Constraints

Capacity for passenger train services within the Sewta area is determined by the rail infrastructure, the mix of train services operated, the running speeds and the calling patterns of the trains. 3.2.1 General

The rail routes in the Sewta area involve a wide range of types, from single-track branch lines to multiple-track trunk routes. Route alignments vary from steeply graded and curvaceous routes, originally operated largely for freight traffic, to high-speed alignments. The long single track sections on the northern sections of the Valley Lines are key constraints to operations. Operation is exclusively by diesel traction, with all passenger services operated by multiple unit stock capable of being driven from either end. The Standard Pattern Timetable (SPT) introduced in December 2005 led to significantly improved reliability. Rolling stock in use is mainly Class 14x (Pacers) and Class 150 (Sprinters) for Valley Lines services, Class 158 and Class 175 trains for longer distance regional services and High Speed Trains on Intercity London Services. Some rolling stock is not well optimised for the steep gradients, frequent stops and crowded conditions often encountered – particularly on the Valley Lines. The older Class 14x (Pacers) rolling stock, which is needs to be replaced by 2020, has low power and in most cases insufficient doorways, extending station dwell times. Revenue collection and protection is generally undertaken by the on-train guard, who also has control of the doors at each end of the train on most services. More modern rolling-stock for regional services, largely secured by cascade, is optimised for longer-distance services, with a longer/narrower body allowing only two abreast seating and only narrow carriage-end doors and vestibules. Speed capability ranges from 75 mile/hr for suburban stock to 125 mile/hr for high-speed passenger trains of up to ten-vehicle length which are used on services to/from London. However, track infrastructure prevents most stock reaching maximum speed, with 95mph more realistic in the region. The weekday passenger service frequency pattern includes: • Independent operation of the Cardiff Bay branch. • 6 trains per hour between Cardiff and Pontypridd. • 4 trains per hour between Cardiff and Caerphilly and Bargoed and to Penarth

and Barry. • 2 trains per hour along the City line running through to the Coryton Line. • 2 trains per hour to between Pontypridd and Treherbert, Aberdare and

Merthyr Tydfil; • 1 Train per hour between Cardiff and Maesteg, Ebbw Vale Parkway and on

the Vale of Glamorgan line beyond Barry. • 1 Inter-City train per hour between Cardiff and Swansea via Bridgend. • 1 train every 2 hours between Cardiff and Swansea calling at local stations, • 1 train per hour between West Wales and Manchester via Abergavenny. • 1 train every 2 hours between Cardiff and North Wales via Abergavenny. • 1 train per hour between Cardiff and Nottingham via Gloucester and

Birmingham.


• 1 train every 2 hours between Cardiff and Cheltenham calling at local stations.

• 2 trains per hour between Cardiff and Bristol and South West England. • 2 Inter-City trains per hour between Cardiff and London. Freight mainly operates through the region on the South Wales Main Line and to / from terminals in Wentloog (intermodal), Newport, Cardiff and Aberthaw. There are also freight flows to the valleys to Cwmbargoed (coal), Hirwaun (coal) and Machen (aggregates) and aspirations for additional freight to the Cwmbargoed area (waste). Due to track capacity constraints freight services between Cwmbargoed and Aberthaw via the Rhymney Line displace some off peak passenger services on that line. 3.2.2 South Wales Main Line

The route has multiple-aspect signalling throughout, which is due for renewal during the early part of the strategy period. West of Cardiff this route is a double-track railway on which capacity is limited by the mix of service speeds. Intermediate stations at Pontyclun, Llanharan and Pencoed and freight trains limit capacity. Local / regional services to Maesteg and to Swansea serve the intermediate stations. East of Cardiff the route is served by both main and relief lines. The relief lines, on the south side of the alignment matching the majority of freight facilities, are currently mainly used by freight trains as the tracks have some sections of comparatively low speed limits of 40 mile/hr particularly east of Newport. Whilst theoretical headways permit up to 12 trains per hour the current mix of freight, fast and slow trains means it is difficult to find regular paths for any additional trains in peak periods. The Newport Area Signalling Renewal eased capacity constraints at Newport station through restoration of the fourth platform, removing the bottleneck on services from Cardiff. East of Newport the configuration of the relief lines changes at Bishton where the up relief line is carried over to the north side of the main lines by a flyover which imposes speed limitations to the relief lines in both directions. The flyover leads directly into the sequence of crossovers forming the bifurcation of routes at Severn Tunnel Junction station. From here the number of services towards London / Bristol is currently influenced by the mix of train speeds over the long section through the Severn Tunnel, (limited to 7.5 trains per hour per direction), although possibilities for enhancement are being sought by Network Rail in parallel with resignalling. 3.2.3 Cardiff Valleys

The Valleys network is focused on Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central stations. Most trains serve all stations and there is little freight traffic, so that frequencies are limited only by signalling densities and by passing facilities on single lines. Most of the branches terminate with single-track sections at the ends of the routes, limiting the maximum frequency. Within the ‘rules of the plan’ turnround margins at these single-track ends are low, often only three minutes, meaning that the timetable has to be constructed with significantly greater layovers at one of the outer ends of routes to allow recovery from any service disruption.


South of Queen Street the route continues to Cardiff Central station where the Valley Lines services use Platforms 6 and 7 exclusively. The high throughput of Valley Lines services results in limited available capacity and flexibility at Cardiff Central, such as for attaching or detaching units. The number of route destinations south and west of Central station does not equal that north of Queen Street and to the east and Penarth services are currently operated largely to form a convenient turnback mechanism, rather than as a response to market need. Other than the single track sections, the principal limitations on the Valley Lines capacity are Queen Street station, the junction immediately to the north and signalling on Valley Lines northwards. Peak station dwell times at Queen Street are extended for large numbers of passengers to board or alight. Cathays station, less than a mile north of Queen Street, has significant passenger boarding requirements and also forms a constraint on maximising movements through the junction under current signalling. The 12 trains per hour currently operating in each direction through Queen Street Station is considered to be the maximum practical capacity. A strategy of lengthening existing trains to cope with increasing passenger demands has been implemented on the Valley Lines with capacity for 6 car trains on the Rhymney, Treherbert, Barry and Penarth routes and 4 car trains elsewhere (except for the Coryton / City Line). South and west of Cardiff services mainly serve routes to Penarth and Barry, diverging at the critical Cogan junction. The single-lead junction leading directly onto the single-track branch to Penarth at the limit of the four track section provides a further constraint to the network as a whole. Beyond Barry the route continues as the Vale of Glamorgan line, re-opened for one passenger train per hour in June 2005. The service operates to a re-instated (east) bay platform at Bridgend ensuring independence of performance of Valley Lines services irrespective of any main line perturbations. 3.2.4 Branches East of Cardiff

The Ebbw Valley Line was opened in February 2008 with an hourly service, involving the reinstatement of a length of double track to allow trains to pass on the branch. While the branch also has a direct chord towards Newport, further double track initially proposed to allow a second hourly service to Newport has not been provided under the initial reopening works. The Abergavenny Line diverges immediately east of Newport, and is a two-track railway with 90mph maximum line speed and Colour-light signalling. The route is shared with a number of freight trains and capacity north of Cwmbran is fully utilised at certain times of the day, particularly as the freight trains can be slowed by a lengthy incline north of Abergavenny. Although a turnback facility is currently available at Abergavenny under existing manual signalling, this is only for trains terminating in platform 1 lying on the main northbound line. The Chepstow Line is a double-track 90 mph route diverging at Severn Tunnel Junction and continuing to Gloucester. The route has multiple-aspect signalling throughout, facilitating its use as a diversionary route to Gloucester in the event of planned or unplanned Severn Tunnel closures. The route is shared with a small number of freight trains, although routeing strategies could potentially significantly increase the number of such trains.


A turn-back facility at Chepstow already exists under the current power signalling arrangements. This involves running a short distance beyond the station to change direction and subsequently to occupy the Cardiff-bound platform, with an addition of around three minutes to round-trip time compared with direct entry to and reversal in the platform of departure. Many Cross Country train services do not call at local stations on this route. Changes have recently been made to the track layout at Severn Tunnel Junction station to remove the conflict between services using the tunnel and the Gloucester line. 3.3 Signalling and Renewal Projects

A programme of signalling renewal throughout South Wales is being undertaken by Network Rail. These projects, which replace the life-expired signalling and control infrastructure, present a major opportunity to plan for the shape of the rail network for the next 30 years and involve over £1.5bn of investment. The projects deliver ‘Like for Like’, modern equivalent form (MEF) railway infrastructure to cope with current timetable requirements, as well as incremental enhancements where there is a business case justification, particularly in terms of performance improvements. Signalling renewal in the Neath / Port Talbot and Newport areas have been completed and the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal is ongoing for completion in 2015/16. The Cardiff Area Signalling renewal includes transferring control from local signal boxes to a new control centre in Cardiff. Significant additional flexibility is being introduced at Cardiff through signalling changes allowing bi-directional running and doubling the Trefforest Loop to enhance capacity on the West Cardiff route to Radyr and Pontypridd. An important capacity enhancement project for the Valley Lines between Cogan and Cardiff Queen Street is being developed with Welsh Government support. This will enhance reliability for passenger and freight services and enhance the capability of the network to increase frequency as an alternative response to train lengthening to cope with future capacity issues. 3.4 Strategic Vision

In 2006 the Wales Transport Strategy Group evidence to the Welsh Assembly Government’s Rail Infrastructure and Passenger Services Committee in 2006 identified some serious ‘pinch points’ in the Welsh rail network. In particular, the South Wales main line between the Severn Tunnel and Cardiff and the line between Cogan Junction and Queen Street North Junction through Cardiff Central Station and Cardiff Queen Street station. Arriva Trains Wales’ evidence stressed the importance of remodelling, upgrading and expanding track, signalling and stations in the Cardiff Queen Street to Cardiff Central section of the network This corridor is the critical section on the Valley Lines network and was termed ‘the Golden Route’ in the 2009 Network Rail ‘Western Accelerated Recovery’ (WAR) improved performance initiative. It is the most intensively used section of the rail network in Wales. This is compounded by the fact that the existing layout and signalling has significant operational and performance constraints undermining long term growth prospects. Analysis of key system failure as part of the preparation for the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal Project has identified that this route section suffers the worst asset performance.


The Welsh Assembly Government evidence to the Enterprise and Learning Committee Inquiry into Future Railway Infrastructure in Wales in October 2009 identified that close working with Network Rail and DfT had resulted in securing £30m additional investment through the HLOS process to; “Upgrade the capacity and capability of the infrastructure around Cardiff for up to 16 peak trains per hour on the busy Valleys Network, linked to Network Rail’s resignalling programme to deliver 45% capacity increases in peak Valleys services by 2015 including future new express services on Rhymney and Taff Vale corridors”. The statement to the committee outlined the Welsh Assembly’s role in promoting and investing in rail in Wales, including; High Speed lines and electrification, examination of re-opening disused lines, station improvements, Access for All funding and rail freight. Sewta works closely with the Welsh Government and Network Rail to determine rail initiatives that will secure cross organisation support and incorporation in future programmes and plans. In March 2011 a written statements by the Welsh Assembly Government on Capital Spending Plans 2011-12 identified the need to make reductions in the capital budget but retention of £2.96m for enhancements to the railway infrastructure on the Cardiff Valleys network including a number of station improvements and car park schemes, continued work planning Cardiff Central capacity improvements / new platform, extension to Hirwaun, hourly services from Ebbw Vale and progressing design for the Maesteg – Bridgend half hourly service. However, deferred or re-profiled schemes from 2011-12 include Energlyn new station, Cardiff Queen Street station improvement, new platform at Pontypridd and new Station at Ebbw Vale Town. 3.5 Timetable Issues

A key objective raised in the Sewta Rail Strategy workshop in 2010 related to improving services outside the core peak periods. Other UK Cities have been developing rail services on Weekday and Saturday evenings and on Sundays as the demand for leisure and shopping trips has changed in recent years. Table 3-A details key issues regarding the timetables for each line in the Sewta area to inform the analysis of deficiencies. Specifically, first train arrival at Cardiff and last train departures and frequencies in the evenings and Sundays. Key issues are:

- Lack of Sunday services on the Coryton / City Lines – although there are Cardiff Bus Services in operation.

- Lack of Sunday services on the Maesteg Line.

- Relatively low services frequencies:

• Rhymney Line evenings. • Rhymney Line Sundays. • Treherbert Line Sundays. • Merthyr Tydfil Sundays. • Aberdare Sundays. • Radyr (City Line) evenings. • Penarth Line Sundays – although there are Cardiff Bus services

operating. • Cardiff – Bristol stopping at Severn Tunnel Junction.


Weekday / Saturday Weekday / Evening

Frequency

Sunday Sunday Frequency

Line First Arrival Cardiff

Last Departure

Cardiff

Trains per Hour

First Train Last Train Trains per Hour

Caerphilly / Rhymney

06:29 23:15 4 / 1.8 10:07 21:16 0.5

Merthyr Tydfil 07:41 22:26 2 / 1 10:39 20:26 0.5 Aberdare 07:25 22:41 2 / 1 10:54 19:41 0.5 Treherbert 06:48 22:46 2 / 1 09:18 22:06 0.5 Coryton 07:04 22:21 2 / 1 No Sunday Service Radyr (City Line) 07:20 21:36 2 / 1 No Sunday Service Penarth 06:15 22:30 4 / 2 10:59 20:31 0.5 Barry 06:21 23:30 3 / 1 09:24 22:25 1.5 Maesteg 07:36 22:35 1 / 1 No Sunday Service Vale of Glamorgan 06:39 22:41 1 / 1 10:42 20:41 0.5 Ebbw Vale 07:37 23:05 1 / 0.5 09:37 19:30 0.5 Abergavenny 06:30 00:30 2 / 1 11:16 23:00 1 Chepstow / Cheltenham

07:00 23:19 1 / 1 13:52 18:23 0.5

Cardiff / Bristol 06:18 23:27 2 / 2 10:42 22:00 1 Severn Tunnel Stops

06:47 23:27 1 / 1+ 10:42 22:00 1

Table 3-A Timetable Issues

- Late first arrivals in Cardiff: • Chepstow Line Sundays. • Merthyr Tydfil Weekdays and Saturdays. • Aberdare Weekdays and Saturdays. • Maesteg Weekdays and Saturdays. • Ebbw Vale Weekdays and Saturdays.

- Early last trains from Cardiff:

• City Line Radyr branch Weekdays and Saturdays. • City Line Coryton branch Weekdays and Saturdays.

The Wales RUS Final Recommendations document from Network Rail (April 2010) stated that stopping all local / regional trains at Severn Tunnel Junction station will be made possible by the track / signalling/ new platform works and is a commitment within Control Period 4. A key objective for the Rail Strategy is a half-hourly minimum service frequency (at least 4 trains per hour in the core journey – to – work area of Cardiff). The lines with hourly service which require increased frequencies are; the Maesteg Line, Rhymney – Bargoed Line, Vale of Glamorgan Line and Ebbw Vale Line. 3.6 Rail within the Sewta Transport Hierarchy

The Wales Transport Strategy identifies the need to improve the attractiveness of alternatives to the private car and noted that the Valley Lines network had experienced 40% growth over the previous 5 years (RTS 2004). Many of the strategic rail corridors particularly into and out of Cardiff are at or nearing capacity. The potential for significant modal shift in the longer term will start to diminish without further capacity improvements.


In 2004 / 05 , there were 13.2m rail journeys entirely within Wales plus a further 3.4m rail journeys to other UK destinations. Of these, 7.4m journeys originated in Cardiff and a further 3.7m journeys originated on the Valley Lines. Therefore more than two thirds of all rail trips in Wales take place within the Sewta region. The Wales RPA study identified that the rail services in the Sewta area have the highest proportions of business/commuting ticket types in Wales. 50% of Valley Lines journeys relate to commuting and 52% of Cardiff originating journeys are commuting, leading to high peak period demands and overcrowding. The study acknowledged that Cardiff and Valley Lines trains were on average around 114% full in the morning and evening peaks and that station car parks are full. However, individual peak trains can be significantly overloaded to 160%. Rail patronage in the Sewta area increased at an average rate of 6% per annum between 2000 and 2009. There was higher growth on the Valley Lines services than other regional and Inter-City services. The Wales RPA estimated a 25.1% passenger growth between 2006 and 2016 and 40.6% by 2026. Three quarters of this growth will be trips to and from Cardiff (40%) and on the Valley Lines (25%) and other South East Wales Destinations (9%). Sewta considers these forecasts to be conservative, based on recent trends, and that there could be significant further passenger demand growth in the future leading to much higher levels of overcrowding. The Wales RPA forecast the highest volume of growth on the section of the network in central Cardiff where the Valley Lines converge on the two track railway between Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central. It also recognises the importance of the Cardiff Valleys network and makes appropriate references to its continuing strategic development. Journey time reliability monitoring of car, bus and rail routes shows that rail services have the least journey time variability and are often the quickest point to point mode in the AM peak. By comparison to rail, car trips have the greatest journey time variability in the AM peak and buses have the greatest journey times. Bus services are an important element of the transport mix in South East Wales, having an important social role, as well as one which supports local economic growth and, where it is the only alternative mode, it provides a strategic transport role. However, ultimately, trains provide a reliable alternative to car travel, especially in the peak hours and rail demand is growing significantly. The strategy recognises the importance of freight in ensuring continuous availability of consumer goods on supermarket shelves and the delivery of raw materials to the many small, medium and large manufacturing operations in the region and the despatch of their products to market. Rail freight has an important role both within the region and in serving wider national and international movements. There is a need to preserve capacity for existing freight on the rail network and to encourage more freight to use the rail network. While rail has always been, and remains, particularly well suited to bulk freight movements, changes in the UK economy have meant that movements in these markets have tended to decline. Nevertheless rail freight, overall, continues to grow and in the last 15 years volumes of rail freight (defined in tonne-kilometres) have increased by 60%. More pertinently, inter-modal traffic (deep-sea, short-sea and


domestic) has increased by 47% in the last 10 years and the overall rail share of road and rail freight movements has increased from 9.5% to 11.5%. To achieve the full potential of inter-modal growth often requires the loading gauge to be enhanced and land use policies that will allow appropriate sites to be identified and protected for the future development of rail terminals and road-rail interchanges. 3.7 Summary

South East Wales has the most intensive rail network in Wales. The services support the economy of the Capital and have experienced substantial passenger growth in recent years leading to overcrowding and suppressed demand. The Sewta vision for improving the rail network is shared by the Welsh Government and seeks to provide a more attractive transport option with a minimum frequency of half hourly services made up of higher capacity electric trains. There is a particularly acute network capacity problem between Queen Street North junction and Cogan Junction – through Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central stations, which impacts on reliability and the potential for further growth. The Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal project offers the scope to secure additional capacity at the core of the Valley Lines network, through an enhancement option which will require continued Welsh Government funding support. Network Rail is working proactively with stakeholders to develop these enhancements, which present a ‘once in a lifetime opportunity’ to secure the infrastructure for providing the reliability and capability for growth that the region requires. Rail is an attractive alternative to the use of the private car and lorry in the Sewta region and is an important element of the transport hierarchy. Sewta have developed a rail strategy to further improve the rail network, with capacity for reliable passenger and freight services, increased passenger service frequencies and longer trains designed to enable the recent growth in demand to continue. The strategy is focused on the Regional Spatial Strategy objectives, prioritised in terms of its value for money and its ability to deliver the Welsh Government’s priorities.


4 SEWTA RAIL STRATEGY

4.1 Passenger Growth and Capacity Issues

There has been considerable growth on train services within the Sewta region over the last few years, which has lead to peak period overcrowding. Investment has been made in infrastructure and additional rolling stock to lengthen trains to accommodate the most pressing demands. Sewta rail services experienced average passenger growth of around 6% per annum between 2000 and 2009, against a forecast growth of around 2.5% per annum assumed in earlier studies. This rate of growth is higher than the UK average and also higher than the ‘high’ forecast assumed in the Wales RPA study8. This growth has increased the problems of passenger congestion and overcrowding and the need for additional rolling stock. Demand and capacity analysis of each line / service was undertaken to address the period between 2013 and 2030 and establish; • The requirement for additional rolling stock; • Whether the investment in longer trains would accommodate anticipated

demand on the Valley Lines, and;

• Whether there would be a need for additional frequency – to those destinations, which in turn would support the previously identified need for additional capacity in the Cardiff Queen Street / Cardiff Central area.

Figure 2 shows the growth in use of the local services and long distance services on the same scale between 2000 and 2009. The overall average growth of 6% per annum includes higher growth (in the order of 90%) on several Valley Lines services compared with lower growth on regional / Intercity services (around 60%). Arriva Trains Wales provided 2011 peak train counts for analysis of the impact of passenger growth to 2030. The analysis concentrated on the 2 hour AM peak (0730 – 0930 arrivals at Cardiff) and 2 hour PM peak (1630 – 1830 departures from Cardiff). Annual growth factors were taken from the new market assessment undertaken for the preparation of the Valley Lines electrification business case study. The factors were 4.1% per annum to 2021 and 2.1% per annum beyond. Passenger demand was compared with the base capacity for each line and also the planned maximum capacity taking account of lengthening all peak trains to the maximum possible. The analysis took into account seating and standing and further peak train analysis was undertaken on key services. It was concluded that on the Intercity, Regional, Chepstow, Abergavenny, Penarth and Cardiff Bay lines there will be sufficient capacity to accommodate anticipated passenger growth for a significant period. However, the analysis suggests that there will be a short term requirement for additional rolling stock on many Valley Lines services if peak period demand increases are to be accommodated without overcrowding or demand suppression.

8 Also in the revised market assessment produced for the Valley Lines electrification business case.


Figure 2 Passenger Growth By Line, 2000 – 2009 – Local Services and Intercity / Regional Services.

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Table 4-A, summarises the results of the capacity analysis by line/ service highlighting dates that capacity thresholds are forecast to be exceeded.

Route / Service Date Base Seat Capacity

Exceeded

Date Base Standing Capacity Exceeded

Date Route Seat Capacity

Exceeded

Date Route Standing Capacity Exceeded

Aberdare Line 2032 am -

- -

2032 am -

- -

Abergavenny Line 2030 am 2021 pm

- 2030 pm

- -

- -

Barry Line 2015 am -

- -

- -

- -

Cardiff Bay Line - - - - Chepstow Line 2015 am

2019 pm - -

- -

- -

Intercity Gloucester Line - - - - Intercity London Line - - - - Bristol Line -

2019 pm -

2029 pm - -

- -

Coryton Line# - - - - Ebbw Valley Line~ 2011 am

2011 pm 2015 am 2014 pm

2022 am 2020 pm

- 2032 pm

Maesteg Line (without frequency increase) @~

2015 am 2012 pm

2030 am 2018 pm

2030 am 2019 pm

- 2025

Merthyr Tydfil Line - - - - Penarth Line - - - - Radyr (City) Line - - - - Rhymney Line 2010 /2030 am

2012/ 2017/ 2032 pm

2013 am 2020 pm

- -

- -

Swansea Local 2014 am 2015 pm

2030 am -

- 2030 pm

- -

Swansea Intercity - 2020 pm

- 2028 pm

- -

- -

Treherbert Line 2016 am 2018 pm

2028 am -

- -

- -

Vale of Glamorgan Line~

2010 am 2011 pm

2010 am 2015 pm

2019 am 2019 pm

2022 am 2021 am

Table 4-A Summary of Capacity Analysis Conclusions by Route and Peak Period

# assumes platform lengthening for 3-car EMU trains ~ electrification reduces corridor route capacity from 4-car to 3-car trains @ Frequency Increase is within NTP but requires rolling stock. Appendix A shows example results for peak trains on selected routes where the forecasts suggest the most serious capacity issues. The graphs show the base capacity, the maximum line capacity (with current infrastructure and full length trains dictated by the length of the platforms), and the maximum capacity including standing (assumed to be 135% of fixed seat capacity for full-length trains). The forecast demand growth is shown and for some lines the profile over the peak period is shown to highlight overloaded trains and the profile along the route to highlight the section of the network with the severest capacity problems. The analysis is based on counts undertaken by train guards which might be subject to under-reporting, particularly on Valley Lines services, as when peak period train loads are high it is difficult for the train guard to undertake an accurate passenger count.


There has been significant investment in platform lengthening and additional rolling stock to resolve peak train crowding problems in the recent past. That has enabled the introduction of longer 6-car trains at peak times on the Rhymney and Treherbert lines (4-car on the Aberdare, Barry, Merthyr Tydfil and Maesteg Lines), lengthening trains is the short term strategy to providing sufficient capacity, including resolving problems on the Coryton line by lengthening the Rhymney line services which call at Heath. The analysis has taken account of the planned CASR and electrification investment. That investment resolves a significant number of problems on the Valley lines through the increase in capacity between Cardiff Queen Street, Cardiff Central and Cogan enabling frequency increases between Pontypridd / Caerphilly / Barry and Cardiff in the medium term. In addition, the planned increase in capacity from a generally 2-car to 3-car train fleet at electrification also resolves forecast capacity issues on the Valley Lines. These investments are an important part of the Sewta Rail Strategy and defer growth problems on some lines into the long term. The table highlights that there are immediate capacity concerns on 3 services which all currently operate hourly – Vale of Glamorgan Line, Ebbw Vale Line and Maesteg Line. The Maesteg Line is shown without the frequency increase made possible through the NTP committed investment and CASR, as it is understood that the rolling stock required is not committed. The Maesteg Line frequency increase plus electrification resolves capacity problems. The Ebbw Vale and Vale of Glamorgan line (also currently hourly) also urgently require frequency improvements. That would then resolve the route capacity problems identified at electrification on those lines. In the interim the capacity problems would be resolved with train lengthening but this has the same rolling stock requirements in the short term. Other lines that experience capacity issues later in the strategy period (eg: Chepstow, Abergavenny and Bristol) have service frequency initiatives proposed in the Rail Strategy at around those dates. The Rhymney line displays passenger levels close to the corridor capacity throughout the strategy period suggesting some further train lengthening coupled with the CASR and Electrification investments. Electrification of the City / Coryton Line will require extending 7 platforms at 4 stations (Danescourt, Fairwater, Waungron Park and Ty Glas) to accommodate 3-car EMU trains. The resulting capacity will resolves problems on the Coryton Line. 4.1.1 Rolling Stock Requirements

The rolling stock requirements over the strategy period were assessed from the capacity analysis of each line and the rail strategy initiatives. The analysis takes into account; • The implementation of the capacity enhancement between Cardiff Queen

Street and Cardiff Central and Cogan within the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal Scheme around 2015 (and additional turn-back platforms at Caerphilly, Barry and Pontypridd) - enabling higher frequency services between Barry, Pontypridd and Caerphilly.

• The implementation of the programmed frequency improvement schemes

within the Sewta Rail Strategy (Maesteg half hourly and Bargoed – Rhymney half hourly), and;


• The replacement of the diesel fleet with 3-car EMU’s at electrification in

2019/20. Figure 3 shows the rolling stock requirements over the strategy period for both capacity increases (train lengthening) and for the improved / new service initiatives. There is an immediate requirement for 9 additional trains for capacity improvements. Thereafter the CASR and electrification investments offset almost all requirements for addition rolling stock for train lengthening to the end of the strategy period. The other additional rolling stock requirements for frequency enhancements in the short term are on the Rhymney Line. It is assuming that the additional rolling stock provided for capacity relief on the Maesteg and Vale of Glamorgan Lines in the short term would be used to increase the service frequencies in 2014/15. Figure 3 Rolling Stock Requirements The total additional rolling stock required over the strategy period is 38 train sets. Additional EMU sets will be required at electrification for Sewta’s initiatives, ie: in addition to replacement of the existing fleet. Sewta will need to negotiate with the Welsh Government for this investment in preparing the plans for electrification. At electrification diesel rolling stock will become available. The best of this fleet could be retained for delivering other Sewta initiatives after electrification (eg: Abergavenny and Chepstow lines service frequency increases). The implications on platform lengths would need to be further assessed, especially where they have been extended for 4-car trains, such as the Aberdare Line. Post electrification only 3-car trains will be able to call at those locations, assuming operation of a 3-car EMU fleet and without further platform lengthening. However, the planned capacity enhancement at Cardiff will offset the requirement to operate long trains to the heads of the valleys for some time. Also, the proposed frequency improvements on the Vale of Glamorgan Line and Maesteg Line will offset the need to lengthen trains beyond 3-cars. On the Ebbw Vale line further analysis is required to determine whether an Ebbw Vale – Newport service will sufficiently relieve the existing overcrowding.

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Capacity EnhancementCardiff Queen St - Cogan

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4.1.2 Rail Freight Growth and Capacity Issues

Rail is also important for the movement of freight, which has been an important dimension of the development and use of the rail network in the region. Whilst the bulk freight markets that rail is well suited for have declined in recent years, there are important traffic flows in the region including coal, steel and aggregates. Despite the economic recession, between 2006 and 2011 there was a 2% growth in rail tonne-kms and Inter-modal traffic grew by 29% over the same period. Inter-modal rail freight traffic has grown faster than road freight since 2004. Future rail freight is forecast to growth by around 8% to 2030 to and from Wales. However, coal traffic is forecast to decline whilst Inter-modal (domestic and maritime containers) will increase by 16% per annum. Most inter-modal traffic is destined for the major urban areas and the forecast growth may therefore result in capacity pressures on existing terminals in the region. The Welsh Government and Sewta have policies to encourage more transfer of traffic from road to rail freight. The review of the rail freight issues in the Sewta Region revealed implications of freight for this study are largely that the substantial growth in inter-modal traffic will be concentrated on the South Wales Main Line. There could be a need for further terminal capacity to accommodate growth between the Severn Tunnel and Bridgend. Plans for future increases in passenger services must ensure their introduction does not impact adversely on existing freight flows and / or future growth in rail freight. Where such constraints are identified the schemes must include measures to ensure freight capability is protected. This is particularly the case for traffic to / from Cwmbargoed: the proposals in the Wales RUS regarding capacity measures in the Cardiff Queen Street to Cogan Junction area will need to be fully implemented. It is recommended that at the next stage of development of the rail freight strategy consultation with freight generators is undertaken to seek to identify future traffic with potential to be transferred to rail and the resultant infrastructure requirements. This work would also seek to address the use of the Wentloog freight terminal and the need for, and location of, additional inter-modal facilities in the region. A summary of existing rail freight flows in and through the Sewta area and freight terminals within the area is presented in Appendix B. 4.2 Sewta Rail Strategy Components

There are three key themes within the Sewta Rail Strategy; • “Coping with Growth”; • “Quick Wins” for Passengers, and; • Increasing the reach of the network.


4.2.1 Coping with Growth

The conclusions of the capacity analysis to 2030 were highlighted in the previous section. There are a number of key issues for the Strategy to take forward: • The immediate need for additional rolling stock to lengthen trains. Recent

investment has been made in lengthening platforms to enable longer trains to provide enough capacity for passengers. There is a short term need for 9 additional trains to lengthen peak services. There is a shortage of modern multiple unit rolling stock in the UK and Sewta and the Welsh Government will need to negotiate to secure cascaded trains for use in the Sewta area. Provision of loco-hauled coach stock may also be a short term option for the peaks.

• In the medium term there are less demands for additional rolling stock as the

capacity enhancement between Queen Street and Cogan will enable lengthened trains to be split and higher frequencies to be provided closer to Cardiff to cope with the peak areas of demand.

• By 2020 there is a requirement to replace the life expired Class 14x (pacer)

rolling stock and capacity analysis suggested that there would be advantages in securing 3-car sets to provide increased capacity and operating flexibility to cope with longer term growth. This has now been proposed through the Valley Lines electrification.

• Diesel stock will become scarce as the current build of Class 172’s for

London Midlands is likely to be the last diesel stock in the UK. Electrification of the Valley Lines could release some diesel stock to strength non-electric services and could be retained for other initiatives in the region.

Optimising the attractiveness of rail in the Sewta area has been hindered by the cascade of trains from other regions. The aspiration to secure a new fleet of trains for Valley Line services will needs to be further assessed at the time of the re-franchising and within the final electrification business case. 4.2.2 Quick Wins for Passengers

A key priority for the rail industry is to improve passenger satisfaction with the railways and the Sewta Rail Strategy identifies a number of relatively short term “quick wins” through continuation of existing investment programmes and identification of timetable deficiencies; • Station Improvements – the National Station Improvement Programme

(NSIP) and NSIP+ within Wales securing match funding from the EU Convergence fund is an ongoing programme of improvements to passenger facilities, car parking and information and security systems which will be implemented before 2015.

• There will be a need to develop a programme of further station

improvements before 2015 for the next 5 year plan. An element of this work could be focused on transforming the experience of rail travel through access and facility improvements coordinated with the electrification of the Valley Lines.


• Station Integration Improvements – the Sewta integration improvements include measures to improve integration with rail including car parks and bus stations. There is a need to secure funding and develop a programme of integration measures with some measures part funded by EU convergence funds and others dependent on developments and other 3rd party support (eg: Newport Bus Station relocation). Rail link bus services are being reviewed by Sewta and, if not secured earlier, will form part of a list of requirements that Sewta will put forward for consideration in the specification for the replacement Great Western franchise and the Wales and Borders franchise in 2018.

• Incremental timetable improvements – The following extensions of the

hours / days of operation of services have positive business cases and will be sought through negotiation with Arriva Trains Wales and the Welsh Government. If not secured earlier, they will form part of a list of requirements that Sewta will put forward for consideration in the specification for the replacement Wales and Borders franchise in 2018.

• Chepstow Line Sunday Services. • Maesteg Line Sunday services. • Coryton Line Sunday Services. • Improved Sunday Services – Rhymney Line. • Improved Sunday Services – Treherbert Line. • Improved Sunday Services – Merthyr Tydfil Line. • Improved Sunday Services – Aberdare Line. • Improved Evening Services – Rhymney Line. • Improved Early weekday services – Merthyr Tydfil Line.

• In addition, further quick win timetable enhancements of additional station

calls at Severn Tunnel Junction and Chepstow and other minor timetable enhancements will be further investigated. The decision by First Group not to take up the final 3 years of the Great Western franchise provides an opportunity for Sewta to seek certain improvements in the re-franchising process in the near future.

• Station Travel Plans – are a part of the Smarter Choices initiatives aiming

to promote sustainable travel and optimise the use of existing infrastructure. There is a need to develop a shortlist of locations within the region based on the objectives of – resolving access (parking problems), encouraging greater use of least used stations and / or targeting stations which under-perform given their levels of service and catchment characteristics.

• Service Frequency Improvements – build on the existing network offer but

are aimed at meeting passengers’ expectations in terms of service quality. The Sewta standards are for minimum half hourly rail services rising to turn-up-and-go frequencies (e.g. every 10 minutes) in the core of the journey to work area. Some frequency improvements require infrastructure (such as turn-back facilities and passing loops). The rail strategy seeks to deliver the following improvements;

• Half Hourly Bargoed - Rhymney. • Half Hourly Cardiff – Maesteg. • Half Hourly Ebbw Vale Line (Newport) • Three trains per hour Cardiff – Bristol.


• Half Hourly local services Cardiff – Abergavenny • Half Hourly local services Cardiff – Chepstow. • Half Hourly Vale of Glamorgan Line. • Additional local services between Barry and Caerphilly and

Pontypridd and speeding up longer distance peak services. In addition to the frequency improvements Sewta will press for franchise changes to benefit the region, such as the Wales and Borders franchise taking responsibility for Bristol services enabling options of through running beyond Cardiff to be examined. Suitable safeguards would be needed to protect passenger interests in the west of England. It is also understood that improvements to rail access form part of the considerations of further development of Cardiff Airport and the Rail Strategy will need to be adjusted to reflect the outcomes of those studies. Other quick wins may present themselves through the strategy period to 2030, such as major sporting events like the recent Ryder Cup which was a catalyst for transport and tourism integrated action. Rail can play an important role in serving major events and Sewta could work to secure lasting legacy benefits from integrating investments such as park and ride expansions and other improved station facilities. 4.2.3 M4 Corridor

Several of the recommended improvements are in the east of the region and should be packaged (and combined with new station opportunities and strategic park and ride at Severn Tunnel Junction) to provide realistic alternatives to car travel in the congested M4 corridor. Individual line studies are now complete and there is an opportunity to package the measures and assess their contribution to resolving capacity concerns on the M4 around Newport. 4.2.4 Increasing the Reach of the Network

To achieve the social and economic objectives of the region there is need to improve connectivity between key settlements and between areas of need and areas of prosperity. Options to extend the reach of the network and provision of new stations to provide new opportunities for rail travel require significant infrastructure and longer schemes development time. There are few quick wins in terms of new stations that could be built on existing lines in the Sewta area. Options are Pye Corner and / or Crumlin and Ebbw Vale Town on the Ebbw Vale Line, Crwys Road and Upper Boat stations when the new shorter distance stopping services are introduced when the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal is complete, and St Fagans at electrification of the Maesteg and Main Line services. Other short-listed new station opportunities need to be combined with new services. Extending the network and new stations builds on the strengths of rail over other modes to attract longer distance trips to the regional centres, by providing attractive alternatives to car travel; a social and economic role, by linking communities, and increased access between the Valleys and Cardiff and Newport. The prioritised extension options take account of the current five year plan and longer term aspirations; • Rhymney Line Enhancement Scheme – Energlyn Station.


• Maesteg Line Enhancement Scheme – Brackla Station.

• Ebbw Vale Town extension.

• Stations at Crumlin and Pye Corner with the Ebbw Vale – Newport service improvement.

• Aberdare – Hirwaun extension and additional station at Trecynon.

• Possible stations at Crwys Road and Upper Boat with Local Stopping

services between Caerphilly / Pontypridd and Cardiff.

• Stations at St Mellons, Coedkernew, Caerleon and Llanwern with the Abergavenny and Chepstow lines service improvements.

• Caerphilly – Bedlinog after the completion of Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal

programme and introduction of additional local stopping services.

• Cardiff – Abertillery hourly.

• Cardiff – Llantrisant – Beddau with possible new station at St Fagans.

• Caerphilly – Machen – Newport. It is recommended that the relevant planning authorities consider planning to integrate development in the railway corridors (especially where development plans are still considering options), and secure development contributions, to improve the business cases for the network extension schemes, Particularly the Cardiff – Llantrisant – Beddau and Caerphilly – Machen – Newport corridors.


4.3 Summary

Demand on the Valley Lines, and elsewhere in South East Wales, has been growing at a rate significantly above GDP. This is possibly a result of the economic changes in the sub-region, including the growth of the Capital City in providing jobs, retail and leisure activities at a greater rate than other centres. If this high rate of growth in rail demand is continued and overcrowding is to be avoided, there will be a need for: • Significant short term investment in additional rolling stock • Medium term rolling stock renewal through Valley Lines electrification. The Queen Street – Cardiff Central – Cogan capacity enhancement scheme and other improvements proposed within CASR are crucial for the achievement of passenger and freight benefits in the most heavily constrained part of the network. The reliability, frequency and crowding benefits associated with this scheme are critical elements of the plan. The rail strategy is based on; • Providing longer trains to accommodate passenger growth; • Improving reliability;

• Providing capacity for freight and new terminals to encourage transfer

of freight from road to rail;

• Enhancing the quality and capacity of the existing network and services;

• Improving the frequency of existing passenger services, and;

• Limited network extensions and new stations to increase access to

passenger rail services. The strategy aims to encourage more use of rail within the Sewta region and to provide the capacity to meet that growth and passengers expectations.


5 STRATEGY DELIVERY AND PROGRAMME

5.1 Introduction

The delivery of the strategy takes account the rail industry guide to rail scheme developments through the GRIP process and the integration with other rail industry programmes – particularly CASR and electrification of the Main Line and Valley Lines. The recommended Programme of Investment is shown in Figure 4. 5.2 Short Term Strategy – to 2015 (CP4)

The programme displays a substantial amount of activity in the first 5 years of the plan – which will depend on the availability of funding. Within this period the region will benefit from EU convergence funding contributing to a number of infrastructure projects. Sewta has previously secured EU funding for platform lengthening and train strengthening which has been extended for 2 years. Future funding is dependent on the outcome of ongoing work in the region to define the process post 2013. The important industry investment in this period is the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal. A number of other schemes are integrated with that programme. Particularly important is the Queen Street – Cogan capacity improvement plus additional turn-backs at Pontypridd, Caerphilly and Barry. This will enable optimal use of rolling stock leading to increased peak services between those towns and local stations in-between. There is a need for additional rolling stock to increase the frequencies on the Rhymney line, Maesteg Line and Vale of Glamorgan line. This pressing need for additional rolling stock will relieve overcrowding. There is also the opportunity to secure some quick wins in terms of incremental service improvements. It will be important to secure resources for development of longer term schemes including the Valley Lines electrification and related activities and early GRIP stages of other network extension options. The Welsh Assembly Government National Transport Plan shows an intention to introduce an all Wales Entitlement Card (smartcard) by 2014. Within this period it will be important to secure protection of alignments and locations for stations, park and ride and rail freight terminal facilities through the planning process. Figure 5 shows the short term strategy proposals in terms of key frequency increases (rather than incremental service improvements), new lines and new stations.


Figure 4 Sewta Rail Strategy Investment Programme


Figure 5 Short Term Strategy Elements 5.3 Medium Term Strategy, 2015 – 2020 (CP5)

The programme contains a significant number of initiatives in the period to 2020. There are 2 important rail industry events / activities in this period; the proposed electrification between London and Swansea and the Valley Lines and; Wales and Borders Franchise renewal. Together this will lead to a cascading rolling stock of 3-car formation to provide additional capacity to cope with growth.


There are several Sewta Rail Strategy initiatives linked to the electrification investment for integrated delivery including the Ebbw Vale Line new stations/ line extension / frequency package, extension between Aberdare and Hirwaun, Extension from Ystrad Mynach to Bedlinog and new stations at St Fagans, St Mellons and Caerleon with frequency increase to Abergavenny. Several of these initiatives constitute part of the package of rail measures to aid M4 corridor capacity issues. There will also be a need to develop and implement further packages of station improvements with targeting of improvements to be coordinated with electrification to maximise the impact of the investment. Future EU Convergence funding arrangements are under discussion but it is likely that there will be some further match funding assistance to the region in this period. It will be important to ensure that schemes are developed to take advantage of the funding – emphasising the need to develop proposals in the Valleys. It will also be important to secure resources for development of schemes in the longer term plan. In this period there is less need for additional rolling stock due to the capacity enhancement secured in the 5 year period. Figure 6 shows the medium term strategy elements. 5.4 Longer Term Plan – post 2020

The programme shows a small number of schemes being developed and implemented in the longer term (between 2020 and 2030). We can be less certain of the requirements in this period as we can be less certain of passenger growth that far ahead. However, it is very likely that there will be station car parking pressures and further requirements for packages of access and facility improvements. In the longer term it is reasonable to anticipate improved business cases for some further extensions of the network and thereby provision of new opportunities to travel by rail. Further electrification of the Marches Line and Chepstow / Gloucester lines is also recommended. Figure 7 shows the locations of the long term strategy elements, both route options in the Cardiff – Llantrisant / Beddau corridor are shown. It is recommended that further development of both alternatives is undertaken to determine the best strategy. It is also recommended that sub options of the Caerphilly – Machen – Newport corridor are examined further.


Figure 6 Medium Term Strategy Elements


Figure 7 Long Term Strategy Elements


5.5 Summary

The revised Sewta Rail Strategy Programme builds on the current five year programme, takes account of the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal programme and integrated enhancement works and takes account of the programme for the electrification of the Great Western Main Line and Valley Lines. The programme takes account of scheme development timescales through the GRIP process used by Network Rail. Several schemes are programmed to take advantage of available EU Convergence funding and to deliver Valley Lines benefits early in the programme. There is an important programme of work to deliver benefits in the M4 Corridor and a medium / long term programme based around electrification and rolling stock renewal. Some larger scale network extension options are programmed for the medium to long term within the period to 2030, enabling supporting land-use plans to be integrated with the transport investments.


6 Rail Strategy Costs and Outcomes

6.1 Strategy Costs

Based on available capital cost information for the individual schemes in the programme the profile of the capital investment has been estimated and is shown in Figure 8. This expenditure profile is more likely to be accurate for the existing five year programme and should be reviewed as more detail of the programme and scheme costs are revealed from further work to develop the rail strategy. The programme excludes the capital investment within the Network Rail Signalling Renewal schemes the associated enhancement options and excludes the costs of electrification. The capital costs average £19.5m per annum (2010 prices). Figure 8 Additional Capital Cost Profile Figure 9 shows the profile of additional subsidy costs (2010 prices) resulting from the Sewta initiatives contained in the programme, including the incremental service improvements. These costs include those associated with additional rolling stock leasing for operating new services. There is a significant rise in additional operating costs as new services are introduced 2020. The electrification programme will produce a substantial fall in operating costs of the existing network services at this time. Beyond 2020 the increasing revenues offset additional operating costs. Figure 9 Additional Subsidy Cost Profile

Capital Costs

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6.2 Strategy Outcomes

Figure 10 shows the estimated additional rail passengers resulting from the rail strategy initiatives. The implementation of the rail strategy initiatives generate significant additional rail patronage from around 1.1 million per annum in 2015 to approaching 10 million per annum in 2030. This excludes the initiatives within the re-signalling projects and electrification which enhance capacity and encourage further passenger growth. Figure 10 Additional Rail Passengers In addition, it is noted that the Sewta Rail Strategy will make a significant contribution to the achievement of the Wales Spatial Plan by improving connectivity between cities in the region and improving accessibility between areas of need in the South Wales Valleys and the areas of opportunity in the Cities and towns on the coast.

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7 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER WORK

The preparation of the Sewta Rail Strategy highlighted the need for further work to develop the strategy and plans for individual elements within the strategy including; • Review of appraisal assumptions of service improvement options with Arriva

Trains Wales for finalisation of financial and economic appraisals to determine opportunities to delivery improvements in the short term;

• Further development of the Rail Freight Strategy through investigation of

specific traffic that could be secured and the infrastructure requirements, ensuring that sites of value to for rail freight are secured through the planning process;

• Development of a programme of preparatory work for the short term and

review of the prioritisation recommendations in the light of outcomes of further work and linkages between projects.

• Finalisation of the short list of Station Travel Plan locations and definition of

the objectives for each location to inform and monitor the delivery of the plans;

• More detailed assessment of the business cases for individual elements

including further investigation of the user benefits for proposed new stations and assessment of the impact on the value for money assessments and programming conclusions;

• Further investigation of the business cases for extensions of the network and

services to Hirwaun and Ebbw Vale Town when the current engineering feasibility studies are completed;

• Further assessment of the practicality of St Mellons Station, St Fagans

Station, Crwys Road Station and Upper Boat Station. Also that the business cases of Crwys Road and Upper Boat stations are assessed in planning the frequency improvements between Cardiff and Caerphilly and between Cardiff and Pontypridd following the capacity improvement between Cogan and Cardiff Queen Street in 2014/15.

• Assessment of combined packages of measures, such as the inter-working

of improved services on the Chepstow and Abergavenny lines and investigation of alternative turn-back options for each service;

• Further assessment of the business cases for Abergavenny Line, Ebbw

Valley Line and Chepstow Line schemes utilising the Sewta Rail Strategy demand forecasting and operating cost models assessment of revised packages of new station options and programming in line with development assumptions, and;

• Further development of the public transport plan for the M4 corridor to

maximise the opportunities for rail to attract car trips from the most congested sections of the motorway as part of a strategy to manage highway capacity.


Additional further work was identified from the analysis of consultation responses to the 2011 Strategy; • Sensitivity analysis on the demand forecasts input to the capacity

assessments and options analysis; • Further assessment of capacity problems on the Main Line and

recommended infrastructure;

• Further analysis of train counts to establish the actual peaks in flows and changes over time;

• Independent exogenous growth forecasting to review the Wales RUS and

electrification assumptions and take on board the results of DfT research into rail growth in the north of England;

• Further assessment of external rail connections and improvements to benefit

the Sewta Region including Cardiff – London and High Speed Line opportunities;

• Integrated transport opportunities including assessment of key connection

issues and opportunities to improve connectivity;

• Further research into fares and ticketing issues;

• Extension of the Sewta Rail Strategy review and evaluation to cover deliverability against programme;

• Preparation for franchise specification negotiations, and;

• Initial development of scheme options to enhance the assessment and

definitions of the schemes, specifically;

• Assessment of alternative terminus options for the Hirwaun scheme; • Assessment of the issues related to the opportunity of a new station

at Crwys Road in Cardiff; • Assessment of the issued related to the opportunity to provide a

station at St Fagans to serve the National Museum Wales, taking account of the tourism strategy for the region.


Appendix A Summary of Capacity Analysis Issues

Figure 11 shows results for the combined routes through Pontypridd for the two hour PM peak. Peak demands are within standing capacity with CASR and electrification providing capacity increases. However, maximum capacity reduces in 2019 at electrification as the Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil corridors are 4-car length so can accommodate only one 3-car EMU. Figure 11 Demand / Capacity PM Peak Cardiff – Pontypridd Additional stopping trains between Cardiff and Pontypridd will free up longer distance services south of Pontypridd, enabled by CASR in 2014/15. Figure 12 shows the checks made on peak trains to establish capacity north of Pontypridd in the base and 2030, in this case the peak Merthyr line train. Figure 12 Merthyr Tydfil Line AM Peak Train Profile

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The Treherbert peak train could be lengthened to 6 cars. If the electrification impact is under-forecast this could be required soon after electrification. The CASR plan to provide additional local trains in the peaks would delay the need to lengthen the platforms at stations north of Abercynon. Figure 13 shows the results for the Rhymney Line AM peak. Between 2011 and 2019 passenger demand is forecast to be close to capacity. The corridor strategy is similar to the Pontypridd corridor and Figure 14 shows the peak train check north of Caerphilly. Figure 13 Demand / Capacity AM Peak Cardiff – Rhymney Figure 14 Rhymney Line AM Peak Train Profile

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Figure 15 show AM peak results for the Cardiff - Barry route. A concern is that the timetable within the Valley Lines Electrification Business Case did not suggest that additional stopping local services to Pontypridd and Caerphilly would run through to Barry. Figure 15 Demand / Capacity AM Peak Cardiff – Barry Figure 16 shows that demand already exceeds peak capacity on the Vale of Glamorgan Line. Overcrowding is expected to curtail demand in the short term. Electrification reduces the capacity to one 3-car EMU. However, there are plans to increase the service frequency to half hourly, WG National Transport Plan commitment for beyond 2015. It is recommended that train lengthening or/ frequency increase is implemented as soon as possible. Figure 16 Demand / Capacity AM Pk Vale Of Glamorgan Line

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Figure 17 shows that electrification will bring substantial additional capacity on the Coryton Line. However, there is a need to lengthen the platforms at Ty-Glas, Danescourt, Fairwater and Waungron Park to at least 64m. Figure 17 Demand / Capacity AM Peak Coryton Line Figure 18 shows capacity problems on the peak Ebbw Vale Line trains before Electrification and significant standing at Electrification. There is a short term need to either strengthen the service or increase the frequency of service on this line. Sewta’s priority is for an hourly Ebbw Vale – Newport service. Figure 18 Demand / Capacity PM Peak Ebbw Vale Line

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Figure 19 shows the results for the line between Cardiff and Bridgend for the PM Peak, revealing sufficient capacity for the 30 year period assisted through the planned capacity increases brought through electrification. Figure 19 Demand / Capacity PM Peak Cardiff - Bridgend Line However, Figure 20 shows that forecast passenger demand exceeds capacity in the medium and long terms on the Maesteg Line, especially in the PM peak. There are forecast capacity problems at electrification, especially if the electrification impact is under-forecast. In the short-term the trains could be lengthened to 4 cars. Figure 20 Demand / Capacity PM Peak Maesteg Line

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Sewta plans to increase the frequency of the service on the Maesteg corridor, This will resolve the capacity problems, as shown in Figure 21. Figure 21 Demand / Capacity PM Peak Maesteg Line + Frequency Increase These figures support the planned frequency increase with new station at Brackla. This is a commitment in the NTP for post 2015. However, there is a need to strengthen the peak service in the short term, which has rolling stock implications. Figures 22 shows that on the Swansea Line the planned electrification will increase capacity by replacing 2-car Class 175 trains with 3-car EMU’s, relieving forecast crowding within most of the Strategy period. However, it also suggests overcrowding leading up to electrification and overcrowding towards the end of the strategy period which will be worse if the electrification impact is under-forecast. Figure 22 Demand / Capacity AM Peak Swansea Line

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Appendix B Summary of Rail Freight Issues

Introduction A review of the rail freight issues was informed through the Rail Freight Group following the electrification announcements and other local changes. The review focused on establishing the rail freight movements within and into the Sewta Region and identification of changes and opportunities for the future need of rail freight paths to inform the capacity assessments of the study. There is a notable lack of freight strategy in the Welsh Government National Transport Plan which was revised since the production of the Sewta Rail Strategy in 2011. The Rail Freight Group and RFOA undertook further work to produce rail freight demand forecasts to 2030, which was published in October 2011.

Rail Freight Context in South Wales The South Wales rail freight network consists primarily of the main east-west coastal trunk route, linked on to by a number of branches. Connections from the north serve the many valleys whose coal and mineral resources instigated the development of the rail network, while on the south side are connections to ports, their associated industries and the major industrial complex at Llanwern. To the west of the Sewta area is the major steel complex at Margam (Port Talbot) while the oil refineries of Milford Haven at Robeston and Waterston also have rail connections. At Newport the strategic route via Abergavenny links the coast to Shrewsbury, the North West and North Wales. Within the Sewta area the South Wales Main Line (SWML) through the Severn Tunnel (to Pembroke Dock, Milford Haven and Fishguard) and the ‘Marches Line’ via Abergavenny are defined as elements of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) by the European Union. The River Severn provides a major barrier to surface transport to South-east and South-west England, which is skirted around by road and rail routes via Gloucester. Both road and rail also have more direct routes across the River Severn. In road’s case capacity issues have been largely resolved by duplication of the Severn Bridge, but there is an ongoing toll requirement placing a significant charge on movements per lorry. In the case of rail the long Severn Tunnel has been in place for many years, providing a capacity restriction and requiring high traction capability to cope with the extended significant gradients. The routes from Cardiff via both Gloucester and the Severn Tunnel are identified as ‘Core Trunk Routes’ in the Strategic Rail Freight Network proposed by DfT in 2007, with between 30 and 40 freight trains per weekday per direction operating between Cardiff and Newport in 2004/59. The route via Gloucester, linking South Wales to the industrial areas of the Midlands and north-east, carries a substantial proportion of the traffic. However, rail freight use of the Severn Tunnel has increased significantly recently.

9 Network Rail Freight RUS, 2007.


The principal freight traffics currently served by rail are the ‘heavy’ traffics of minerals, steel, and oil and chemicals largely served by dedicated trains. These are generated by the heavy industries of mining and steel working long established in South Wales, supported by the ports along the seaboard. General and distribution traffics are not at present strongly addressed by rail in Wales, however, there has been strong growth recently and further growth is anticipated. This is an important issue of relevance to the Sewta freight strategy. The Rail Freight Demand Forecasts To 2030 report was produced for the Rail Freight Group and the Rail Freight Operators Association by MDS Transmodal in October 2011. Despite the economic recession which limited the growth in Port traffic and internal freight, between 2006 and 2011 there was a 2% growth in rail tonne-kms and by 13% excluding coal traffic. Intermodal traffic grew by 29% over the same period. Intermodal rail freight traffic has grown by 3.5% per annum faster than road freight since 2004, at an average growth rate of 7% per annum. Future rail freight forecasts to 2030 are;

• Rail tonne-kms 3.3% per annum; • Intermodal tonnes 7.6% per annum, from 16m tonnes to 76m tonnes,

and; • Train kms / weekday 4.0% per annum.

Higher forecasts could result from a 20% increase in trailing lengths and move from 5 day to 6 day week operations. Figure 24 shows the 2010/11 and 2030 forecast rail freight flows to and from Wales by UK region. Over half of freight tonnes are within Wales and the largest external flows are to the West Midlands and from the North West of England. There is forecast growth of 5% in total rail freight flows from Wales and 8% in flows to Wales between 2010/11 and 2030. However, there are forecast falls in traffic wholly within Wales and from the South West of England and substantial growth in flows to / from the East of England, Scotland, the North West of England and Yorkshire & Humber. There are relatively small changes forecast between Wales and the West Midlands and North East England. Figure 25 shows the forecast rail freight flows to and from Wales in 2010/11 and 2030 by commodity. The over half of Welsh flows are metals and the other largest flows are coal. There are relatively small existing flows of maritime containers and domestic intermodal traffic, however, these flows are forecast to increase significantly by 2030. Coal traffic is forecast to decline by a third and metals traffic from Wales is forecast to fall but metals traffic to Wales is forecast to increase slightly by 2030. The majority of the network is in joint passenger and freight use, the frequency of passenger trains having in many cases been increased so as to take up much of the existing capacity.


Figure 24 Welsh Rail Freight Flows by Region 2010 and 2030 Figure 25 Welsh Rail Freight Flows by Type 2010 and 2030

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Other issues affecting route availability for freight include infrastructure axle load limits and loading gauge. Although the heritage of heavy freight traffic has provided 25-tonne axle load capability over most of the relevant freight network, the loading gauge to and along the SWML remains ‘W8’ which, although adequate for 8’-6” containers on standard-platform wagons is too small for the High Cube containers (9ft 6in tall). The W10 gauge which was recommended in the Freight RUS as a proactive strategy would deliver this, but the business case was not developed in the case of the routes to/from South Wales. The freight industry expressed a further aspiration for W12 gauge clearance for sections of the network which could be used to transport short sea traffic. This gauge maintains the height of W10 (9ft 6in on a standard platform) but an increased width of 2.6m which would accommodate additional container sizes (e.g. refrigerated units). The Freight RUS shows the freight industry’s W12 gauge clearance aspiration, which includes routes to and from the SWML. Electrification of the main London-South Wales route between London and Swansea has recently been given the go-ahead, driven by passenger service considerations. Installation of overhead electrification equipment and clearances through the historic Severn Tunnel will help facilitate W10 gauge through this long tunnel – adequate for many of the over-height containers – but the incremental expenditure is unlikely to be viable unless the diversionary route via Gloucester were also electrified and cleared. There is major doubt whether the W12 gauge desirable to protect longer-term growth of freight containers can realistically be obtained through the tunnel. It is recommended that the GRIP feasibility studies for the electrification of the South Wales Main Line should also determine what is required to deliver W10/W12 capacity at the same time, including through the Severn Tunnel. The process needs to identify locations where work is not required to accept the overhead electrification but would be required to deliver gauge enhancement. The costs of this work should be met from within the £200m Strategic Freight Network (SFN) funding for Control Period 510. In addition, Sewta should press for the connection of rail freight terminals into the electrified network. These are not presented within the base case for electrification and are not usually funded through the SFN. It will be more cost-effective to secure these works within the electrification scheme. Beyond the issue of loading gauge, potentially critical to inter-modal flows, the critical issues for rail freight in South Wales concern route capacity and the availability and suitability of terminal facilities – particularly in respect of addressing the general / distribution markets. Although many of the branch lines (particularly in the Valleys) are single-track, the majority of the trunk network is double track. The network will benefit from the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal (CASR) in 2014, following on from the Port Talbot area (completed) and Newport area (almost complete) works. Two sections of the South Wales Main Line were particularly heavily used in the past by industrial freight traffic – around Margam and between Cardiff – Newport – Severn Tunnel Junction. These sections are equipped with four tracks, the additional tracks being largely dedicated to freight usage.

10 Rail Industry Planning period between 2015 and 2019.


The section between Bridgend and Cardiff, involving gradients of significance to heavy freight trains, is an acknowledged double-track ‘bottleneck’. This has previously been considered to be effectively paralleled for freight purposes by the Vale of Glamorgan route via Barry. That route had, for many years, no passenger services west of Barry and thus more than adequate freight capacity. However, with the existing hourly passenger trains through to Bridgend (and an aspiration for half hourly services) there is less spare capacity for through freight services. Freight Facilities Grants (FFGs) were a key instrument in Government endeavours to level the playing field between road and other modes and to increase rail’s freight mode share. This has supported a series of important terminals and rolling-stock investments, underpinned by firm commitments to future carryings, with some examples given later in this report. In England FFG’s are no longer available and in Wales the budget is small but also undersubscribed. Mode Shift Revenue Support scheme (MSRS) is now the preferred method of supporting the transfer of freight to rail. Sewta should encourage potential users / providers to exploit these opportunities. Overview of Current Rail Freight Movements Over 8 million tonnes of freight was reported to use the South Wales main line between Newport and Port Talbot in 2004-511. An increase to over 12 million tonnes was forecast12 for 2014/15 and to over 3 million tonnes (from 2m tonnes) on the line via Abergavenny, though in both cases the forecasts have been obtained by applying UK-wide growth forecasts by commodity and it may be that without significant intervention the growth in inter-modal / distribution traffics may not be replicated in and out of South Wales. The Freight RUS notes that ‘there are no significant capacity gaps identified in Wales…’ and suggests in Table 5.7 only three freight issues to be dealt with in the Wales RUS and only one in the Sewta area, associated with development of the Cwmbargoed – Aberthaw flow, for which there are developed plans for mitigation of the impacts. An index to the principal South Wales rail freight terminals in current operations is given in Table 7-A with those inside the Sewta area in blue. The table also indicates the principal rail routes involved. Where ‘xx’ is shown this represents a heavier freight flow. The aggregation of the flows results in a picture in the Sewta area which is dominated, in terms of movements and tonnes carried, by six main markets plus the Abergavenny transit corridor. These are shown in Table 7-B. Figure 26, from the 2011 Rail Freight demand forecasts report, shows the rail freight routes in Wales. These are concentrated in South Wales and on the South Wales Main Line through South East Wales between Bridgend and Severn Tunnel Junction. In 2030, whereas there will be considerable growth in north south flows through England there will be slight growth in flows to the East of Cardiff to between 40 and 50 trains per day.

11 Network Rail Freight RUS. There is uncertainty whether this volume in fact applies after the ending of steelmaking at Llanwern in 2001. 12 Wales Freight Strategy, May 2008


Terminal SWML (W) SWML (E) Cogan Valleys N&W Primarily Origins Newport Docks X Machen X Cwmbargoed X X XX XX Tower Colliery XX Barry X X Barry Docks X X Aberthaw Cement Works (Rail connection not currently in use)

X XX

Neath Abbey Wharf X X Swansea Burrows X X Onilwyn X Robeston XX XX Primarily Destinations Fifoots P. S. X Birdport (Newport) X X Cardiff Tidal XX Aberthaw P. S. X XX XX Llanelli Trostre XX XX Two-way Traffic Llanwern (Newport) XX XX X Bridgend X X Margam (Port Talbot) XX XX Margam: Grange Sidings X X Intermodal / Wagonload / Transit Newport Alexandra Dock X XX X Wentloog (Cardiff) XX Transit via Abergavenny XX

Table 7-A South Wales Freight Terminals and Routes

Market Flows through Sewta area Trains per day

Influences Change

Steel making and processing (Tata)

Margam (Port Talbot) – Llanwern, and north-east and midlands to/from south wales

10 each way

Industry dynamics (Tata European penetration / consolidation) and currency factors

Recent growth

Steel recycling (Celsa)

Cardiff from sources across the country

4 each way

Industry dynamics and currency factors

Recent Growth

Electricity Supply Industry Coal

Cwmbargoed and Onllwyn to Aberthaw, also from Portbury

4 each way

Aberthaw coal demand and lifetime

Stable – until 2025

South-East bulk materials

Aggregates and Oil to south-east

2 each way

South-east demand for bulk materials

Stable

Wagonload and general port traffic

Varying services largely to Midlands and North

2 each way

Port capabilities and profile, also china clay exports (?)

Probably Stable

Intermodal Containers

Daily service between Southamption and Wentloog

1 each way

Deep-sea container flows to/from South Wales

Stable

Transit via Abergavenny

Portbury to northwest , including cars and coal

3 each way

Portbury bulk materials markets

Recent Growth may be routed

direct via Gloucester

Table 7-B Overview of Sewta-area Main Rail Freight Flows


Figure 26 Daily freight Trains by Route (average weekday 2010/11) Intermodal Freight Terminal Facilities and Markets A notable feature of rail freight into and out of South (and North) Wales is relatively low level and recent emergence of domestic distribution / intermodal traffic. Tesco and other supermarkets now have large regular rail flows between the Midlands to and from Scotland and Tesco has recently instigated flows to Magor via Wentloog. Sewta should investigate the potential for other intermodal market growth and required facilities and capacity.


International and deep sea intermodal flows have not grown to the extent expected. Possible explanatory factors might include:

• The size of the customer markets in the discrete regions of Wales • Length of rail flows available • Competitive coastal / near sea shipping alternatives for feeder services to

deep sea liner routes • Capability of rail haulage, at competitive costs • Insufficiently developed rail terminals facilities.

The rail gauge factor may, until now, have been a constraint to development of Channel Tunnel traffic as Europe has standardised on 45’ x 9’6” x 2.55m boxes. The first order has recently been placed for new wagons that will allow EuroBoxes of this size to be moved at W8 gauge. It is encouraging that a variety of operators are now using the existing Wentloog facility and that traffic is increasing. There may be a case for development of alternative facilities under different ownerships to develop the market. The National Government’s Strategy for Sustainable Distribution, although now over ten years old, incorporated a strategy for major freight interchanges, including rail inter-modal terminals, recognising that they are key features of national infrastructure. It identified two relevant key characteristics of such terminals:

• They should be located near the key business markets they will serve ‘which

will largely focus on major urban centres, or groups of centres, and key supply chain routes’.

• There must be open access to such facilities to enable competitive rail

haulage and customer choice.

The Wales Transport Strategy and Wales Freight Strategy included intentions to ‘promote modern freight interchanges’ between rail and other modes including specifically ‘rail-freight connections to the main freight ports’. Indications of sites favourable to emerging distribution markets are provided by locations of some existing road-orientated facilities in the area. These include sites operated by or for:

• Tesco: major regional distribution centre (RDC) close to the M4 at Magor

(recently instigated regular rail freight flow); • Peacock’s: Major clothing chain’s regional distribution depot at Treforest

Industrial Estate; • Wilkinson’s: national variety retailer previously operating from a base in the

East Midlands, opened a second major ‘southern’ depot also at Magor in 2000;

• Smiths News, the newspaper and magazine wholesaler, invested over £1m

during 2008 to relocate its Cardiff and Bridgend business into a ‘super-centre’ at Imperial Park, Newport.

It is notable that none of these sites is significantly further west than Cardiff.


Newport Docks and Barry No 2 Dock, were identified in the Wales Freight Strategy, already having embryo services via the wagonload rail network. Previous aspirations to develop a terminal at Bridgend were frustrated by planning indecision and the site has been lost. Other potential sites might include a site in or around the Port Talbot / Margam / Neath area, giving the direct access to West Wales as well as to local heavy industries and the Sewta area.

Conclusions The review of the rail freight issues in the Sewta Region has revealed a stabilisation of traditional freight traffics following a period of decline, and potential for growth mainly in inter-modal traffic. The implications of freight for this study are largely that;

• Further inter-modal traffic will be concentrated on the South Wales Main

Line; • There are specific implications of growth in freight in the Cwmbargoed area

including the potential for further coal traffic (impacting on passenger service capacity) between 2014 and 2025.

In addition, the operations review has indicated that the main further freight capacity issues are on the South Wales Main Line between Cardiff and Bridgend. Plans for future increases in passenger services must ensure their introduction does not impact adversely on existing freight flows and / or future growth in rail freight. Where such constraints are identified the schemes must include measures to ensure freight capability is protected. This is particularly the case for traffic to / from Cwmbargoed: the proposals in the Wales RUS regarding capacity measures in the Cardiff Queen Street to Cogan Junction area will need to be fully implemented. There is a need for Sewta to protect existing and potential rail freight terminals through the planning system, particular to ensure that the industry can continue to grow the inter-modal freight market. There is a need to undertake further work with the industry to identify and protect other potential sites.

It is recommended that the development of the rail freight strategy involves consultation with freight generators to identify future traffic with potential to be transferred to rail and the resultant infrastructure requirements. This work would also seek to address the perceived under-use of the Wentloog freight terminal and the need for, and location of, additional inter-modal facilities in the region.


Appendix C Network Capacity / Operations Review

C1 Introduction Figure 1 showed current levels of utilisation of effective capacity rated as either “high”, “medium” and “low”. Whilst the route between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Jn is 4-track, most passenger trains are currently timed over the main lines owing to the significant line-speed differential. Thus effectively, the Main Lines have a high level of utilisation whereas the Relief Lines remain underutilised. It is notable that the single line sections at the extremities of the Valley lines routes are effectively 100% utilised in most cases. The infrastructure here has been designed to deliver a service level of 2tph and there is no capacity available for any further services. The need for trains running as part of a 2tph service to pass twice per hour at Ystrad Rhondda, Mountain Ash and Merthyr Vale on the Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr routes also acts as a considerable constraint in timetable construction throughout the Valleys network onwards to Penarth, Barry Island, Radyr via the City Line and Bridgend. C2 South Wales Main Line West of Cardiff, there are generally 4 passenger train paths each hour which depart from Cardiff Central at the following times:

- XX04 to Carmarthen / Milford Haven (fast ATW service from Manchester) - XX14 to Swansea (Swanline stopping service, every two hours) - XX18 to Maesteg (stopping ATW service from Cheltenham) - XX48 to Swansea (fast FGW service from Paddington)

There is conflict at the west end of Cardiff Central station between these four services and the 5/6 Cardiff terminating trains that need to be turned round by means of a shunt into sidings to the west and then a move across the whole layout into the departure platforms, 0, 1 or 2. The 5/6 shunts per hour therefore effectively constrain the number of available paths westbound from Cardiff towards Bridgend. The planning headway between Cardiff and Swansea is 4 minutes but as all passenger trains call at Bridgend station for between 1 and 1½ minutes, then the minimum headway becomes 5-5½ minutes for trains with the same stopping pattern. In each hour westbound, the sequence of trains is XX04 fast Manchester to Carmarthen / Milford Haven, XX14 2-hourly Swanline to Swansea (some trains extended to west or mid Wales and then XX18 all stations to Maesteg. There is then a gap until the XX48 fast departure which is the FGW Paddington to Swansea service. In addition to the passenger services there are up to two freight paths per hour west of Cardiff, most of which are destined for Margam near Port Talbot but some trains continue further west via the Swansea District Line. There are some long sections with adverse gradients west of Cardiff, for example the 5 miles from Miskin to Llanharan and again from Bridgend to Stormy. The gradients are steeper although over a shorter distance in the eastbound direction. The gradients serve to limit freight train speeds, particularly for the heavier steel trains.


This mixture of fast and stopping passenger and freight trains consumes a considerable amount of the available line capacity, particularly between Cardiff and Bridgend. Overtaking facilities for freight services are provided in both directions at Miskin to the east of Pontyclun, at Tremains / Pencoed between Pencoed and Bridgend, at Stormy between Bridgend and Pyle and at Margam Yard. C2.1 Bridgend There is only one principal conflicting junction on the route; at Bridgend where the Maesteg line diverges. Conflicts can arise here between trains departing for Maesteg and those on the main line heading towards Cardiff. There is also a junction with the Vale of Glamorgan (VoG) route to the east of Bridgend. This junction is not, however, normally scheduled to be used by passenger services as those from the Barry direction are able to access platform 1A independently from the main line. Whilst it is possible for trains to run through between the VoG and Maesteg routes this facility is not normally used owing to the lack of main line crossover to the east of Bridgend station. This means that all such movements must use platform 1, the westbound main line platform and there would be a large increase in the number of conflicts in the station area. C2.2 Cardiff Central Station Cardiff Central is a complex station having 7 platform lines together with two through main lines. With the current signalling all platforms are uni-directional with the exception of platform 4. This leads to a considerable amount of shunting of terminating trains from one side of the station to the other thereby consuming capacity. Table 7-C details current platform operating characteristics and utilisation:

Platform Direction Normal Utilisation 0 Up (can only be used by departing

trains starting at Cardiff) Ebbw Vale Services

1 Up Eastbound main line services 2 Up Eastbound main line services 3 Down Westbound main line services 4 Reversible Westbound main line services.

Eastbound terminating services 6 Up Northbound Valleys services 7 Down Southbound Valleys services

Table 7-C Cardiff Central Operating Characteristics

Up to six trains per hour terminate at Cardiff from the east as shown in Table 7-D.

Service Arrive Cardiff Depart Cardiff Taunton XX15 XX00 Holyhead (every 2 hours) XX20 XX20 Portsmouth XX43 XX30 Ebbw Vale XX33 XX35 Nottingham XX29 XX45 London XX22 XX55

Table 7-D Cardiff Central Main Line Demands from the East by Route.


Currently, all these trains have to shunt via Canton depot and return to the station to depart from platforms 0, 1 and 2. These six shunts conflict with the four westbound trains departing towards Swansea. With the exception of platform 0 all platforms can accommodate more than one train simultaneously although operational rules do not allow a second train to be admitted to an occupied platform when the first train has been signalled to depart. In that case the second train has to be held until the first train has cleared the platform. The working timetable reveals that many trains arriving at Cardiff from the east incur a time penalty while waiting for one of the two platforms to become available. Generally one but occasionally two eastbound freight services per hour operate from Aberthaw and are routed towards the Relief Line towards Newport via platform 4. These trains conflict with passenger services needing to access platform 4 from the east although if running late can be held outside Central station alongside Canton depot until a path becomes available. The dwell time is 3 minutes for all trains on the main lines and 1½ minutes for Valley line trains. C2.3 Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal Implications Cardiff area re-signalling is planned to extend bi-directional operation across more of the platforms thereby reducing the need for trains to shunt at the west end. For example, the Cross Country service from Nottingham, with its short turn round of 16 minutes, would be able to turn round in the same platform, thus avoiding a shunt and helping deliver a right time start for the return service to Nottingham. The long turn rounds, however, would mean that a number of trains are still likely to need to shunt in order to vacate platforms. A new platform 8 is planned for Valley line trains although we understand that the previously planned restoration of west-facing bay platform 5 is now unlikely to take place. C2.4 Cardiff Central – Newport The minimum timetable planning headway is 4 minutes on the Main Lines and 5 minutes on the Relief Lines. This headway when combined with the designated 2 minute dwell time at Newport, effectively means that the headway between trains needs to be 6 minutes. The working timetable reveals, however, that platforms 3 and 4 at Newport are now used for alternate trains and departures from Cardiff are generally at 5 minute intervals, which could be reduced to 4 minutes subject to performance considerations. In seven hours there are nine trains operating to a standard pattern as shown in Table 7-E.

Cardiff Depart Destination Operator XX00 Taunton FGW XX12 Cheltenham ATW XX20 Holyhead ATW XX25 London FGW XX30 Portsmouth FGW XX35 Ebbw Vale ATW XX45 Nottingham XC XX50 Manchester ATW XX55 London FGW

Table 7-E Standard Pattern Services Between Cardiff and Newport


The Holyhead service operates in alternate hours and the Cheltenham service does not operate in all hours but generally there are at least eight departures in any one hour. With this standard pattern then there are three remaining spare paths available in each hour departing from Cardiff Central at XX05, XX16 and XX40. There is little flexibility for trains to be moved around the clockface owing to pathing considerations elsewhere on the network. For example the FGW Portsmouth services operate across complex geography and many key junctions where change would result in considerable impacts on other services throughout the south of England. Similarly, the Cross Country Nottingham services need to be pathed through the densely trafficked Birmingham area. The linespeed on the Relief Lines is low with 5 of the approximately 12 miles being limited to 40mph and the remainder 60mph. This compares with 75mph on the Main Lines. For this reason the Relief Lines are used only by a small number of westbound passenger trains and not generally used by any in the eastbound direction. All freight services between Cardiff and Newport operate on the Relief Lines where the planning headway is 5 minutes. Up to 50 trains per day are currently scheduled in each direction with between 2 and 3 trains in each hour. Therefore there is a considerable amount of spare capacity on the Relief Lines even assuming some growth in freight traffic. In the absence of linespeed improvements, the linespeed differential is likely to preclude use of the Relief Lines by passenger trains. (a) Ebbw Junction Ebbw Vale line trains join the South Wales Main Line at Ebbw Junction, to the west of Newport. Westbound trains towards Cardiff need to cross the Up Main Line and therefore conflict with all eastbound main line trains once an hour. Proposed increases in the number of trains from Ebbw Vale destined for Cardiff will increase the level of conflict and consequently constrain the potential number of Up Main line paths available between Cardiff & Newport. This situation could be improved if Ebbw Vale line trains were timed to pass each other at Ebbw Junction although the nature of the single line sections on the branch line probably precludes this. Currently trains to Ebbw Vale pass Ebbw Junction at XX47 and trains from Ebbw Vale to Cardiff pass at XX19½. This effectively means that an additional path from Cardiff at XX08 cannot be used. (b) Newport Station Newport station is provided with four platforms and generally all eastbound trains use platform 3 and the new platform 4 alternately. Most westbound trains are planned to use platform 2 although certain trains are timed into platform 1. Platform 1 is only used when essential as it is located beyond the Relief Lines and trains need to make conflicting movements at both the east and west ends of the station in order to access it. Also it is not used for Intercity trains as additional staffing would be required to close train doors. C2.5 Newport – Severn Tunnel Junction The timetable planning headway for this section is 4 minutes on the Main Lines and 5 minutes on the Relief Lines. The differential in linespeed between the two sets of lines is more pronounced on this section as the Relief Lines are limited to 40mph throughout with 75mph on the Main Lines.


There are two key junctions between Newport and Severn Tunnel Jn; Maindee West Jn and Severn Tunnel Jn itself. (a) Maindee West Junction At Maindee West Junction, trains from the Hereford line running onto the Main Line towards Cardiff, conflict with Main Line trains in the opposite direction towards Severn Tunnel Junction. Trains heading from Hereford pass at XX25½ and XX59½ and those in the opposite direction at XX06 and XX35½. The conflict between the two routes effectively means that the spare Main Line paths departing from Cardiff at XX05 and XX40 cannot be timed through Newport without one of the trains involved in the clash incurring pathing time. The working timetable reveals a significant number of occurrences today where trains from the Hereford direction incur pathing time on the approach to Maindee West Junction. In any option that entails additional trains on the Hereford line then capacity would be optimised and conflict minimised if they were timed to pass each other at Maindee West Junction. (b) Severn Tunnel Junction The new track layout at Severn Tunnel Junction, whilst a significant improvement compared with the old, is not able to eliminate all conflicts. Westbound trains from the Severn Tunnel will conflict with eastbound trains routed towards Chepstow and Gloucester and a planning margin of 4½ minutes is required between such conflicting movements. Ideally, in order to optimise capacity, east and westbound trains on each of the two routes should be timed to pass Severn Tunnel Junction at the same time. Currently there are two pairs of trains on the Severn Tunnel route timed in that way and one pair of trains on the Gloucester route. C2.6 Severn Tunnel Junction – Gloucester This route is a straightforward double track railway with a timetable headway of 4 minutes. Utilisation is low, there being generally two passenger services and up to one freight train in each direction per hour. There are passing loops in both directions at Lydney where freight services can be held if necessary. (a) Severn Tunnel Timetable headways for the 8km section through the Severn Tunnel are extended to 5 minutes. In most hours there are 4 passenger services in each direction comprising:-

- 2tph London – Cardiff / Swansea - 1tph Portsmouth – Cardiff - 1tph Taunton / Weston – Cardiff


The Severn Tunnel is an important route for freight services and up to two paths per hour are shown in the working timetable during passenger operating hours. There are significant gradients out of the tunnel in both directions which comprise 5.5km at 1:90 up to Severn Tunnel Jn and 9.5km at 1:100 to Patchway punctuated by a brief level section through Pilning. These gradients represent a considerable impediment to freight, particularly heavily loaded trains and therefore there is a significant speed difference compared with the passenger services, thereby leading to a high level of capacity utilisation. Given the current passenger service there are potentially three spare paths per hour available in the eastbound and two in the westbound direction. C2.7 SWML - Freight Utilisation The South Wales Main Line is an important route for freight traffic. Between Severn Tunnel Junction and Cardiff West the route is 4-track and freight traffic is normally planned to use the Relief Lines with passenger trains on the Main Lines. Capacity pinch points exist for freight in the Newport and Cardiff Central station areas. At Newport westbound passenger trains requiring access to platform 1 conflict with freight trains in both directions. At Cardiff Central there are conflicts at the east end of the station between passenger services accessing platform 4 and freight movements in both directions and at the west end between freight trains running from the Barry Lines and westbound passenger trains. The Relief Lines have capacity for around 8 trains per hour in each direction taking into account variations in speed according to freight train loads and locomotive types. In most daytime hours, however, there are between two and three timetabled freight movements in each direction and therefore there is considerable spare capacity. West of Cardiff where the SWML reduces to two tracks, the number of freight movements is reduced but the volume of traffic remains significant, particularly to the east of Margam Yard. Here passenger and freight movements must share the same tracks and there is a considerable difference in running times between service types. The number of freight trains currently scheduled to run in any hour at Pontyclun is generally between 1 and 2 although there are none in a number of hours. In two westbound hours 3 trains are scheduled to operate when the “as required” paths are included although on any given day it is unlikely that all three paths will actually be utilised. In each of the timetable options we have allowed a minimum capacity for freight of 4tph over the 4-track sections of the SWML and 2tph between Cardiff Central and Court Sart Junction. West of Cardiff gradients mean that point to point freight train timings vary to some degree depending on train weights. In order to be confident that paths are deliverable, we have therefore adopted the slowest timings generally in use for each section.


C3 Valley Routes C3.1 Barry Island, Penarth and Bridgend – Cardiff Queen Street The minimum timetable headway is 3 minutes between Barry and Cardiff Queen Street. Station dwells south of Cardiff Central are up to 1 minute and at Central are 1½ minutes. This lengthens the effective interval between services to 4½ minutes for passenger services. The short branches to Barry Island and Penarth are single track and are each able to accommodate a maximum of four trains per hour. Between Barry and Bridgend, other than a short section at its extremity the route is double track and able to accommodate around four trains per hour. Generally one, but occasionally two freight services operate to and from Aberthaw power station in each hour. Between Barry and Cardiff Central each freight service effectively occupies two passenger paths. C3.2 Cogan Junction Cogan junction is the point at which the Penarth branch diverges. Of the 8tph from Cardiff Central, 4tph are routed towards Penarth and the other 4tph towards Barry. The Penarth branch is single track and can only accommodate one train at a time. The running time to Penarth and back, allowing for a minimum turn-round of 3 minutes means that the line is 100% occupied for most of the day. Trains leaving the Penarth branch also conflict with those running towards Barry (including up to 2tph freight) and the single line means that Penarth trains cannot be timed to pass Cogan Jn at the same time. Barry line trains would ideally be timed to pass at the same time to minimise conflicts but constraints elsewhere preclude this. Whilst freight overtaking loops are provided in both directions immediately to the north of Cogan Junction, the timing any additional trains over Cogan Junction in the Barry direction is therefore likely to be difficult. The Cardiff Area Signalling Renewals project includes an enhancement option being funded by the Welsh Government to improve capacity between Cardiff Queen Street and Cogan junction including trackwork changes to remove this restriction. C3.3 Cardiff Queen Street The single most important constraint on the Valleys routes is Cardiff Queen Street station. Whilst Queen Street is provided with three platforms, platform 3 has restricted capability in that it can only accept through trains in the southbound direction and only terminating trains from the south (from Central or Cardiff Bay). Platform 3 is effectively used solely for the high frequency shuttle service to Cardiff Bay therefore leaving only two platforms available for through services. The standard station dwell time is 2 minutes, reflecting the large numbers of passengers that disembark from and embark on each calling train. Therefore, with a headway of 3 minutes then the minimum interval between trains is 5 minutes and the maximum number of trains per hour in each direction that can be handled is 12. In 11 operating hours 12 paths are in fact utilised by trains and therefore in the absence of infrastructure upgrade no further trains can be handled at Queen Street. North of Queen Street 50% of services are then routed to each of the Pontypridd and Caerphilly routes.


The junction immediately to the north of Queen Street sees 6tph in each direction on each of the two routes. Arriving trains from the Pontypridd line conflict with those departing towards Caerphilly. There is a similar platforming constraint at Cardiff Central in that only platforms 6 and 7 can be accessed from the Queen Street line. The CASR enhancement option between Cardiff Queen Street and Cogan Junction is understood to include additional trackwork south of the Newport Road bridge constraint which will enable a second train in the same direction each way to enter the station. A new turnback will be created for the Bay Line Service freeing up a platform face for through services. This measure, coupled with planned additional turnback platforms at Caerphilly and Pontypridd stations will enable service frequencies to be increased. C3.4 Cardiff Queen Street – Coryton and Rhymney The route north from Cardiff Queen Street is double through to Bargoed and then single to Rhymney. The length of this single line section restricts the service frequency to hourly although in the peak periods a more frequent service operates on a “tidal” basis with trains running in one direction only. This is possible as a number of trains are programmed to be stabled overnight at Rhymney, on a planned basis. The Rhymney Line Upgrade scheme includes as additional loop at Tir-Phil station enabling the service frequency to be increased to half hourly between Bargoed and Rhymney. This scheme has Welsh Government support and planned to be introduced within the CASR scheme. South of Bargoed the infrastructure is able to accommodate approximately 8tph assuming that all trains have the same stopping pattern. 4tph currently operates and therefore paths are available for the small number of freight services on the Cwmbargoed branch. Whilst paths are available for additional passenger services, no increase is possible owing to the capacity constraint at Cardiff Queen Street. The Coryton branch is single track and can accommodate only one train at a time. The running time from Heath Junction and back including a short turnround allows a 30 minute interval service to operate but with little contingency for service recovery and the line is effectively operated at 100% of available capacity. C3.5 Cardiff Queen Street - Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr, City Line A service of 6tph operates between Cardiff Queen Street and Pontypridd. Onwards 2tph operate to each of Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr. The three branch terminals are situated at the end of long single line sections from Porth and Abercynon respectively. Intermediate passing loops on each line allow a 30 minute interval service to operate and therefore capacity on each of the single lines is 100% utilised. Capacity exists for up to 12tph south of Pontypridd, assuming all trains having the same stopping pattern. As with the Rhymney line, the capacity constraint at Queen Street prevents any additional trains operating via the Llandaff route. Capacity does exist, however, via the City Line which can accommodate at least 4tph. The City Line is served by 2tph, operated as extensions of trains that would otherwise have started and terminated at Cardiff Central; every City Line train currently terminates at Radyr.


C3.7 Maesteg – Bridgend The 8¼ mile long Maesteg branch has five intermediate stations at Wildmill, Sarn, Tondu, Garth and Maesteg Ewenny Road. The number of stops together with a low linespeed means that the running time including stops is some 23 minutes. Immediately to the north of Tondu station a passing loop is provided at Tondu Llynfi Jn although it is only signalled to freight standards and therefore only one passenger train can occupy the Bridgend to Maesteg section at any one time. The signalling system at Tondu Llynfi Jn is mechanical and controlled by the adjacent signal box. The single line onwards to Maesteg has token operation and every train needs to stop at the signal box to collect and set down the token. A timing allowance is included in the schedules for this. Two branch lines diverge at Llynfi Jn to Margam and Blaengarw although no regular scheduled services operate over either. A bay platform is provided at the north side of Bridgend station (platform 3) which was formerly used by shuttle services between Bridgend and Maesteg. This remains available for use although the current timetable does not make use of it as all trains operate as through services to and from Cardiff. The existing hourly service utilises almost 100% of the available capacity north of Bridgend. This means that the timings of westbound and eastbound trains are intrinsically linked. As all services operate through to Cardiff Central (and many run through to Cheltenham) then pathing on the Maesteg line can serve to constrain the design of the main line timetable. The Maesteg Line Upgrade scheme involved improving the Llynfi Loop at Tondu to passenger standards enabling the frequency to be increased to half hourly, initially between Maesteg and Bridgend before CASR is completed and the additional services can be extended through to Cardiff. The scheme has Welsh Government Support including a possible new station at Brackla. C3.8 Ebbw Valley Railway The 18 mile long Ebbw Vale railway leaves the South Wales Main Line (SWML) at Ebbw Junction just to the west of Newport. It is double track from Ebbw Junction for the short distance to Park North Junction from where it is largely single track to Ebbw Vale Parkway. One intermediate 3 mile long section of double track is provided between Risca South Junction and Crosskeys which is of sufficient length to allow services to pass dynamically. An hourly service currently operates between Cardiff Central and Ebbw Vale Parkway and each pair of trains passes on the intermediate double track section. There is no capacity for any increase in service frequency with the existing infrastructure.


C4 Newport – Abergavenny Newport to Abergavenny is a double track railway and trains can be timed to operate with a 5 minute headway. Beyond Abergavenny the route is operated with mechanical signalling and the headway varies considerably depending on the distance between signal boxes. A particular constraint is the long section immediately north of Abergavennny to Pontrilas which also contains a long gradient. Freight services require almost 20 minutes to clear this section compared with 10 minutes for passenger trains. Passenger services comprise hourly trains from Cardiff to Manchester supplemented by a 2-hourly service to Holyhead. Approximately seven freight services in each direction are planned over the route during daytime hours. A good deal of spare capacity therefore exists between Newport and Abergavenny only although pathing of trains onto the main line at Maindee west junction is likely to be a constraint. C5 Options Assessment C5.1 Assumptions For each option the service aspiration is described, a timetable proposition was developed indicating necessary infrastructure changes along with rolling stock requirements. The base situation is the current railway infrastructure and capability along with the December 2010 working timetable. Resultant detailed timetables and diagrams are contained within the Technical Appendices. Each of the options considered was developed individually and we have grouped all options affecting the SWML together to enable an assessment to be made of which schemes could be developed together as a package. C5.2 Cardiff – Bristol The aspiration is to increase service frequency between Cardiff and Bristol from two to three trains per hour. We have assumed that the additional trains would ideally call at Newport, Severn Tunnel Junction, Filton Abbey Wood and Bristol Temple Meads. The route between Cardiff and Bristol is currently served twice per hour by First Great Western as part of longer distance routes to Portsmouth and Taunton. From Cardiff departures are at XX00 to Taunton calling at all stations in Wales then Patchway, Filton Abbey Wood and Bristol Temple Meads and onwards to Taunton. The Portsmouth services depart from Cardiff at XX30 calling at Newport, Filton Abbey Wood and Bristol Temple Meads. Some peak services call additionally at Severn Tunnel Jn. In the opposite direction trains are approximately 30 minutes apart departing from Bristol at XX21 originating from Taunton and XX54 originating from Portsmouth. There are a number of key constraints on the section between Cardiff and Bristol, namely:

- available paths between Cardiff and Newport in both directions; - pathing westbound trains through Severn Tunnel Junction station; - pathing of trains through the Severn Tunnel where the headway is 5

minutes;


- pathing of trains in the Patchway and Filton Junction areas; - availability of vacant paths between Bristol Temple Meads and Stapleton

Road; and - the interface of other FGW and XC paths at Bristol and the irregular

Avonmouth / Severn Beach service which occupies three different paths dependent on the particular hour.

The Bristol Temple Meads to Avonmouth and Severn Beach service operates at an irregular pattern of 30, 40, 50 minute intervals. In one hour, trains from Bristol depart at XX16 and in the following hour, trains depart at XX03 & XX34, repeated at XX16 the following hour. The pattern in the opposite direction has trains arriving at Bristol Temple Meads at 40 minute intervals. This irregular pattern makes pathing an additional train to and from Cardiff difficult, given the implications of retiming other long distance trains in the Bristol area. Any retiming of First Great Western or Cross Country services in the Bristol area will have a significant impact in other parts of the country. The potential solution in providing a third Cardiff Central to Bristol Temple Meads path each hour is effectively to time trains between Bristol Temple Meads and Stapleton Road in the unused Avonmouth / Severn Beach paths, which are different in each hour. From Cardiff Central, in even-numbered hours, trains would depart at XX39 calling at Newport and Severn Tunnel Junction. Capacity limitations would, however, prevent this train from calling at Filton Abbey Wood. In the odd hours from Cardiff Central, however the required path is at or around XX16. Unfortunately this is not a feasible path owing to the faster following service that departs from Cardiff at XX25 for London and which would catch a XX16 departure by Patchway. In the opposite direction, in the odd-numbered hours, trains can depart from Bristol Temple Meads at XX36, calling at Filton Abbey Wood, Severn Tunnel Junction and Newport. Pathing time is needed to be inserted at Severn Tunnel Junction in order for the train to follow the Nottingham to Cardiff Cross Country service. The only path available in the even hours is at XX17 but unfortunately this would clash at Severn Tunnel Jn exactly with the ATW Cheltenham to Cardiff services. Pathing time could be added to one of the trains or the Cheltenham service be routed along the Relief Line to Magor and then crossed to the Main Line but this merely transfers the problem to Newport where there are two further westbound trains joining from the Hereford route. We conclude, therefore, that there is only likely to be capacity for an additional train between Cardiff and Bristol in alternate hours. No changes in infrastructure are required. Running an additional train in alternate hours as a self-contained operation would require two additional diagrams. If inter-worked with another service at the Cardiff end then one diagram could be saved although this is unlikely in the absence of another service operating at a 2-hourly interval. C5.3 Cardiff – Chepstow The aspiration is to increase the service frequency at Chepstow from the approximately hourly interval today to two trains per hour through the provision of a new Cardiff to Chepstow service. The new train would ideally call at Newport, Severn Tunnel Jn, Caldicot and Chepstow. We have also investigated the incorporation of additional calls at the projected new stations at St Mellons, Coedkernow and Llanwern by this service.


The Chepstow route is currently served by the hourly ATW service between Cardiff Central and Cheltenham, supplemented at certain times by the Cross Country Cardiff to Nottingham service. 14 Northbound and 15 southbound stopping services are provided, of which 2 and 3 are respectively operated by Cross Country. The existing gaps in the service need to be filled in order to create an hourly interval for the Cheltenham service. This hourly timetable will then be augmented with a second train per hour terminating at Chepstow. Filling the existing gaps is relatively straightforward as the paths needed are available for the additional 3 trains in each direction. An additional train would, however, be required in service. We have also incorporated within this service proposal the opening of two new stations between Cardiff Central and Newport – St Mellons (7.8km to the east of Cardiff Central) and Coedkernew (4.4km to the west of Ebbw Junction). These stations will need to be located on the Relief Lines in order to avoid reducing capacity on the main lines. In addition, we have included in this option a new station at Llanwern, 4km to the east of Maindee West Junction. In this case we believe that the station can be located on the Main Lines as utilisation is lower on this section given that the Ebbw Vale and Hereford route trains are not present. The additional Chepstow service will therefore use the Relief Lines between Cardiff and Newport and cross to the Main Line at Newport. We have timed trains with existing Relief Line linespeeds but if these were improved then it would be possible to improve journey times. Severn Tunnel Junction presents a capacity constraint in delivering the additional hourly Chepstow service, as previously described. There are also only a limited number of available spare paths through Severn Tunnel Junction in the Cardiff to Chepstow direction. The Chepstow paths need to be as near to 30 minutes apart from the existing ATW service between Newport and Chepstow as possible. Matching this with platform availability and crossing from the Relief to Main lines at Newport, restricts the number of possible pathing options available. From Cardiff Central, trains can depart at XX26, calling at St Mellons and Coedkernow on the Relief Lines before crossing to the Main Lines and departing from platform 2 at Newport at XX48½. The additional path arrives at Chepstow just in front of the following Cross Country which will require 1 minute pathing time be inserted approaching Chepstow. This can be achieved by transferring excess dwell time at Gloucester (there would be no change in timings north of Gloucester). Since the Cross Country service is behind the terminating Chepstow train at minimum headway, the train terminating at Chepstow will need to do so on the westbound side of the station as there is no time available to detrain and shunt forward via a siding north of the station on the eastbound side. In the westbound direction, there are no pathing constraints and trains will depart from Chepstow at XX54 and provide a near half-hourly service between there and Cardiff Central. Between Newport and Cardiff Central, the Chepstow trains will operate on the Relief Lines and call at Coedkernow and St Mellons.


If the additional hourly Bristol to Cardiff service operates, then in odd-numbered hours from Chepstow, approximately two to three minutes pathing time will need to be inserted into trains from Chepstow with a consequential later arrival at Cardiff Central. This is because the Chepstow train will immediately follow the additional Bristol train. Suitable facilities would be required at Chepstow (or further north) for train turn rounds. Currently a worked trailing crossover exists to the north of the station and which could be used for crossing over terminating trains. However, this would only be possible if the turnrounds are short and paths are available between other train services. Our timetable work indicates that this is not likely to be possible owing to a combination of constraints in path availability at Severn Tunnel Junction and the paths required for the Cardiff to Nottingham services. Two turnback options exist at Chepstow utilising previous redundant facilities on land in Network Rail’s ownership. The first involves the re-instatement of the facing crossover at the south end of the station along with the former bay platform on the Down side. The second would see the re-instatement of the connection to the former Tidenham branch to the north of Chepstow Tunnel. This would then form a turn-back siding in conjunction with the existing trailing crossover to the north of the station. The second option is likely to be less expensive to provide as it requires only one new point and less complex signalling modifications. There may also be a gradient problem with providing this option. The first option is the preferred solution, however, as the available timetable slots in the northbound direction do not have a sufficient margin for the terminating train to de-train at Chepstow and draw forward into the turnback siding whilst keeping ahead the following Cardiff to Nottingham train. Filling the gaps in the existing Cheltenham service will cost one diagram. Three diagrams are required to operate the additional hourly Cardiff Central to Chepstow service. With turn round times of 40 minutes at Chepstow and 40 minutes at Cardiff Central, trains could be interworked with the Abergavenny service option described later which also requires three rolling stock diagrams. Interworking the Cardiff to Chepstow and Abergavenny resources requires five diagrams, a saving of one diagram if the two timetables were resourced separately. C5.4 Cardiff – Abergavenny To operate a new hourly local service between Cardiff and Abergavenny which will ideally call at Newport, Cwmbran, a projected new station at Caerleon, Pontypool & New Inn and Abergavenny. In addition we have explored the opportunities for this service to also call at the projected new stations between Cardiff and Newport at St Mellons and Coedkernow. The new local service will allow existing Pontypool & New Inn calls to be removed from longer distance services. Abergavenny is currently served by almost all long distance services between Cardiff and Manchester Piccadilly / Holyhead. The Manchester services operate hourly to and from Cardiff, calling at Cwmbran and Newport. The Holyhead services operate 2-hourly and call at Pontypool & New Inn, Cwmbran and Newport. The combined service therefore gives Abergavenny a service that alternates between 1 and 2tph in successive hours.


The aspiration is for an additional hourly stopping service between Abergavenny and Cardiff Central calling at the existing stations at Pontypool & New Inn, Cwmbran and Newport. It would enable the existing Pontypool & New Inn stops to be removed from the Holyhead services which can then be accelerated. It is also noted that there is a desire to increase the Holyhead service to hourly. Platform availability at Newport is a key starting point in determining the positioning of this additional Abergavenny service. In the eastbound direction from Cardiff Central, trains will need to be timed on the Relief Lines, providing, as near as possible, a half hourly interval of calls at the proposed new stations at St Mellons and Coedkernow if combined with a new Chepstow service. At Newport, crossing from the Relief Lines to the Main Lines to access the Hereford Line at Maindee West Junction requires a vacant path in both directions to be available. We have allowed for the additional Abergavenny service to call at the proposed new station at Caerleon (positioned 3.8km to the north of Maindee West Junction) together with Cwmbran and Pontypool & New Inn. In the westbound direction, the additional trains from Abergavenny would depart at XX27, again calling at Pontypool & New Inn, Cwmbran, Caerleon, Newport, Coedkernow, St Mellons and Cardiff Central. If the proposed additional Cardiff Central to Bristol Temple Meads operates, then the even hour paths from Abergavenny will need to depart 2 minutes earlier to avoid a conflict at Maindee West Junction. The Abergavenny trains will then pick up the same paths at Newport. The terminating services will need suitable turn-back facilities at Abergavenny (or further north). Currently it is possible for trains to reverse at Abergavenny by means of a shunt move but this arrangement is not likely to be suitable for an hourly service owing to the amount of time that the running lines will be occupied and the need for short turn-rounds. The preferred option is for the provision of a new bay platform on the site of the former loop platform on the east side of the station. An associated new facing crossover would also be required to the south of the station. Three diagrams are required to operate the additional hourly Cardiff Central to Abergavenny service. With turn round times of 40 minutes at Abergavenny and 40 minutes at Cardiff Central, trains could be inter-worked with the Chepstow option which also requires three rolling stock diagrams. Inter-working the Cardiff to Chepstow and Abergavenny resources requires five diagrams, a saving of one diagram if the two timetables were resourced separately. C5.5 Cardiff / Newport – Ebbw Vale The aspiration is to increase service frequency from one to two trains per hour by the addition of a second hourly service between Ebbw Vale Parkway and Newport direct calling at all stations on the Ebbw Vale line. The additional trains for the additional hourly service to Newport have been planned to give a half-hourly service at all stations between Ebbw Vale and Rogerstone. The current infrastructure on the Ebbw Vale line is designed for the 1tph service in operation with each pair of trains passing on the double track section between Risca South Jn and Cross keys. To provide a second service in each hour will require an additional double track section to be provided between Newbridge and Aberbeeg.


The route between Park Junction and Gaer Junction is currently signalled only to freight standards. A passenger service to Newport would therefore require the signalling to be upgraded. Train turnrounds at Newport will be an important consideration as these services will only be able to access platforms 3 and 4 which are otherwise used for all eastbound main line departures. Unless turnrounds of the Ebbw Vale trains are very short then they will need to clear the platform in order to allow access for main line services. The timetable shows that this will not be the case. The potential options are:

- Shunt to the west of the station and then return immediately before departure.

- Run through to a convenient location where turnback facilities are or are planned to be available e.g. Abergavenny or Chepstow.

- A minimum cost infrastructure solution that provides a turnback siding to the east of Newport.

A shunt is potentially possible from platform 3 or 4 to Maindee East Junction and then across the whole layout to East Usk No1 or No2 Reception lines where the train can be held and the driver change ends. However, pathing of trains in this way across all lines is likely to be difficult, however, and the availability of the Reception Lines between freight services may also be an issue. Trains could run through from Newport to Abergavenny, for example. This would not be a good use of rolling stock and traincrew time as the number of passengers conveyed is likely to be small. A potential infrastructure solution would involve the partial re-commissioning of the Hereford Siding between Maindee West and North Junctions to form a new turnback siding. This line can be easily accessed from platforms 3 and 4 without conflicting with other services on the main line and would not incur any additional rolling stock or traincrew costs. Running an additional hourly service between Newport and Ebbw Vale Parkway would require two additional rolling stock diagrams. C5.6 Cardiff – Abertillery The aspiration is to re-open the former railway between Aberbeeg Junction and Abertillery and to provide a new hourly service between Abertillery and Cardiff Central calling at all stations. Abertillery would be served by a new single track branch line of approximately 2.5 km in length diverging from the Ebbw Vale route at the former Aberbeeg Junction. We have estimated a running time from Llanhilleth to Abertillery of approximately 5 minutes assuming that there are no intermediate stations. Sufficient time is, however, available in the turnrounds at Abertillery to allow for up to two intermediate stations. Abertillery is planned to be served by an hourly service from Cardiff Central and would ideally form part of a 30 minute interval over the majority of the route between Cardiff and Llanhilleth. In planning the timetable we have therefore re-planned the Newport service to fit around a 2tph Cardiff to Ebbw Vale / Abertillery service.


By flighting the Newport service close behind Cardiff trains then it will be possible for trains to be timed to pass on the two double track sections that will be in place following the earlier introduction of the Newport service. Our timetabling assumes the two Cardiff services are arranged as close to a 30 minute interval as is possible without need for modifications to the current dynamic passing loop situated between Risca and Crosskeys. The departures from Cardiff use the vacant XX08 paths and the existing XX35 path. At Newport, trains can use platform 4 and the Up Main Line which is free at the times when the Ebbw Vale to Newport service is required to operate. To allow for a 25 minute turn round at Newport, trains will again be required to clear the platform between arrival and departure. The vacant paths at Newport are those of the XX08 and XX35 from Cardiff. A simple junction would be required at Aberbeeg with the new line to Abertillery. The additional passing loop provided between Newbridge and Aberbeeg for the Newport service along with the existing loop between Risca and Crosskeys would also support the operation of a third train per hour on the line to and from Abertillery. The current Ebbw Vale service requires three rolling stock diagrams. Increasing the service on the route to three trains per hour (two from Cardiff and one from Newport), requires a total of seven diagrams. C5.7 Cardiff – Swansea Line An aspiration is to increase the existing local Cardiff – Swansea service frequency from broadly 2-hourly to hourly. The existing Swansea local service currently operates every two hours between Cardiff Central and Swansea in both directions. Trains call at all stations between Bridgend and Swansea. Doubling the Swanline service to hourly can be achieved by replicating the existing paths to an hourly frequency. Some of the additional trains will require pathing time to be inserted approaching Swansea as the two-hourly service from Pembroke Dock otherwise arrives at Swansea at the same time. No changes in infrastructure are required. Increasing Swanline service frequency from 2-hourly to hourly will require two additional rolling stock diagrams. C5.8 Cardiff – Maesteg inc: Brackla Station (a) Brackla Station To open a new station at Brackla, approximately 1 mile to the east of Bridgend on the SWML, initially it is envisaged that the existing hourly Maesteg service would call. In the longer term the aspiration is for the service level to be increased to 2tph and served by either an enhanced Maesteg or Swanline service. The timetabling exercise established the practicalities of the existing local passenger rail services between Cardiff and Maesteg / Swansea serving Brackla. We understand that the new station is envisaged to be located approximately one mile to the east of the existing station at Bridgend on the South Wales main line between Bridgend and Cardiff Central. For this exercise we have assessed whether there is sufficient time within current schedules for existing train services to call, or the extent to which timetable changes would be required to accommodate calls at the new station.


In order to assess the effects of calling at Brackla we have assessed the likely time penalty from calling at the new station. We have assumed that the dwell time will be 45 seconds in line with ATW’s strategy for stations of a similar nature. To this needs to be added a time allowance for train deceleration and acceleration. In the eastbound direction we assess that 1¼ minutes is required which when added to the 45secs gives 2 minutes in total. Previous studies have indicated that for operational flexibility, the westbound platform should be located on the third line at this location – the Tremains Loop which is currently used for holding slower trains to be overtaken. The length of this loop coupled with a likely long-term maximum speed of 25mph will, however, result in a time penalty of 3 minutes in this direction. In the Down direction it has been possible to insert Brackla calls in all trains with the exception of the 0703 from Cardiff. This train has insufficient time to call if the return peak working (0759 from Maesteg) is to have sufficient time to call at Brackla. In the Up direction there is insufficient time for the 0646 from Maesteg to call but a good spread of morning peak services is possible by adding stops to the 0504, 0550 and 0616 departures from Carmarthen. Turnrounds at Maesteg are generally a minimum of 4 minutes and most are 4½ when roundings of arrival times are taken into account. Two pairs of trains require 3 minute turnrounds but these are not successive (i.e. there is a longer turnround immediately before and afterwards) and so are compliant with the timetable planning rules. (b) Enhanced Service Aspiration On the Maesteg line, the aspiration is to increase the service frequency from hourly to two trains per hour and also for it to serve the new station at Brackla. The existing service on the Maesteg line currently operates every hour in both directions. Owing to pathing constraints and passenger loadings, in the morning peak certain long distance ATW services also serve the intermediate stations between Bridgend and Cardiff. It is the longer term objectives of stakeholders to see a doubling in frequency of services between Cardiff and Maesteg to 2tph. Both services in each hour are envisaged to call at all stations including the proposed new station at Brackla. Two phases are planned with the first involving a doubling in frequency between Bridgend and Maesteg only. The second phase would involve projection of the second train per hour through to Cardiff Central once Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal is completed. An existing bay platform is provided at Bridgend (platform 3) and this is available for the second train per hour to turn back. In order to allow two trains to operate between Bridgend and Maesteg, an upgrade is required to the existing passing loop at Tondu Llynfi Jn which is currently signalled only to freight standards. We understand from ATW that the upgrade is likely to be a simple, relatively low cost solution involving the retention of the existing locally controlled mechanical signalling. Removal of the token working to and from Maesteg is, however, envisaged which will dispense with the need for every train to stop at the signal box to pick up and set down the token. This should enable the removal of 1 minute from the running times.


This timetable would require one additional train in service throughout the day compared with the current service. The second phase involved the second train per hour operating between Maesteg and Bridgend being extended through to Cardiff Central. Timings on the Maesteg branch are governed by the need for the two trains to pass at Llynfi Jn, immediately north of Tondu station. This serves to constrain timing flexibility on the main line and ideally the two trains would be approximately 30 minutes apart between Cardiff and Bridgend. In the westbound direction, however, the timings of the existing FGW Paddington to Swansea and ATW Manchester to Milford Haven services, which typically depart from Cardiff at XX50 and XX05 respectively mean that two such paths do not exist as there is insufficient time for an all stations train to Maesteg between them. Therefore the second Maesteg service will need to leave Cardiff ahead of the London train and will then need to be overtaken in Tremains Loop. This will result in Maesteg services departing from Cardiff at an uneven 20 / 40 minute interval. In the eastbound direction the fast passenger services are almost 30 minutes apart and therefore it is possible to identify two almost equally spaced paths for the Maesteg services. In the timetable developed for the Cardiff to Maesteg route through workings across Cardiff are nominal. Unfortunately it is not possible to directly link the Maesteg and Ebbw Vale services in both directions as the combined running time is slightly too long. We estimate that this timetable would require an additional two trains in service throughout the day compared with the current service. C5.9 Cardiff – Bridgend via Vale of Glamorgan The aspiration is to increase service frequency between Barry and Bridgend from the existing hourly to two trains per hour. In the current timetable all trains run through from Cardiff Central and Queen Street where they are linked with the Merthyr route southbound and the Aberdare route northbound. The enhanced timetable would see the service frequency increased to 2tph on this route. The current hourly service is provided by effectively diverting and extending to Bridgend what would otherwise be one of a 4tph Barry Island service. This leaves Barry Island served by 3tph arranged at intervals of 15, 15, 15 and 30 minutes. It would be logical therefore to divert a second Barry Island terminating service such that both Barry Island and Bridgend are then served at 30 minute intervals. There will be no changes in the service pattern between Cardiff Central and Barry. Between Barry and Bridgend the frequency will be increased from 1 to 2tph. The latter route section was upgraded for the existing passenger service and is able to accommodate up to approximately 4tph in each direction depending on the mix of trains. Generally there is one freight service per hour over the route between Cardiff Central and Aberthaw Power Station, with no regular daytime services being scheduled over the route onwards to Bridgend. Increasing the passenger service west of Barry would therefore leave one path per hour remaining for any increase in traffic to Aberthaw. No changes in infrastructure are likely to be required. Diverting and extending 1tph from Barry Island to Bridgend will require one additional diagram.


C5.10 Cardiff – Beddau The aspiration is to reopen the former railway between Pontyclun and Beddau and operate an hourly service between Beddau and Cardiff Central calling at Pontyclun. The scheme would involve reinstatement of a level crossing at Talbot Green which may be problematic (as identified in the engineering section). We have assumed that a new station at St Fagans will be opened as part of this scheme and will also be served by the Beddau route. A new line is proposed between Pontyclun and Beddau, approximately 5 km in length. Between Cardiff Central and Pontyclun, a new station is proposed at St Fagans (6.3km to the west of Cardiff Central). It is proposed that the new station at St Fagans be served by additional trains operating to and from Beddau. In the westbound direction, trains can depart from Cardiff as late as XX41 past each hour, calling at St Fagans and Pontyclun and still keep ahead of the FGW London to Swansea services, which pass Pontyclun at XX01. The additional Beddau trains will reach Pontyclun near to the same time as the current Maesteg service. The extended dwell time at Cardiff Central (8 minutes) is effectively pathing time so trains could depart earlier should the Maesteg paths need to be retimed earlier or later. Our timetabling identified paths for a 2tph service between Beddau and Cardiff Central. One eastbound train (1552 from Beddau) needs to be overtaken in Miskin Loop (currently only suitable for freight trains) in order that the fast service from Fishguard Harbour to Cardiff Central may overtake. This option will require the re-construction of the former railway between Pontyclun and Beddau along with the necessary crossover at Pontyclun to the west of the station to allow westbound services to access the line. If the timetable is enhanced to provide two trains each hour from Cardiff to Beddau, then, it is likely that Miskin Loop will need to be upgraded to passenger standards. The round trip time from Cardiff Central to Beddau will be around 50 minutes. The Ebbw Vale services have long 62 minute turnrounds at Cardiff and at times suitable for the operation of an hourly service to Beddau. It will therefore be possible for the hourly Ebbw Vale services to be extended to Beddau without the need for any additional trains. The Ebbw Vale rolling stock is, however, used on other routes in the peak periods and it is not possible to resource trains from Beddau at 0709 and at 1809 and at 1741 from Cardiff Central without an additional train. Maesteg or Swansea local services could potentially call additionally at St Fagans in the peaks if necessary. A timetable of two trains per hour requires the use of two diagrams, either self-contained or linked to the hourly Ebbw Vale service. (a) M4 Jn34 Station The aspiration is to construct a new station at Miskin located immediately adjacent to junction 34 of the M4 at the point at which the motorway crosses the South Wales Main Line between Cardiff Central and Pontyclun. We have assumed that ideally all local services west of Cardiff would call at the new station.


The station could be located either to the west or east of the road overbridge. To the west (Option 1) it would be on the 2-track railway and to the east (option 2) on the 4 track section formed by the Miskin overtaking loops. There are number of advantages and disadvantages associated with the two options as follows:

Option 1 - Minimises time penalty for trains calling; - Difficult site adjacent to river. Flooding risk and river must be bridged to

provide access Option 2

- Good road access easily made; - Potentially less earthworks; - Platforms on Miskin Loops allow slower trains to be overtaken but with

higher time disbenefit from calling; and - Adjacent to existing commercial developments

Assuming the current timetable, there is scope for both the Swanline and Maesteg trains to call at the new station. These trains are, however, 4 minutes apart and so would not provide a good spread of departures from Cardiff. If FGW London to Swansea services were to call at the new station then there would be a journey time extension of 4 minutes between Cardiff and Swansea. The ATW services from Manchester to Carmarthen could also call and with a calling penalty of 3 minutes. If other schemes considered in this report were implemented, calling the new Beddau services at the M4 Parkway station would make best use of the available paths and minimise journey time extensions to other services. We have assumed that the station would be located as described in Option 2 above where the road heading south west from junction 34 crosses the railway. No other infrastructure changes are necessary. There are no rolling stock implications for this option as no specific train service would operate to uniquely serve this station. C5.11 Integrated SWML Timetable We have packaged all standard hour timetable options so as to understand the extent to which current infrastructure on the SWML can accommodate the complete package of timetable options envisaged. (a) West of Cardiff The current timetable generally comprises a total of five or six passenger and two freight trains per hour over the critical section between Cardiff and Pontyclun as follows;

- 1tph fast to Carmarthen / Milford (ATW); - 1tph fast to Swansea (FGW); - 1 train every two hours ‘Swanline’, calling all stations between Bridgend

and Swansea (ATW); - 1tph to Maesteg, calling at all stations, and; - 2 freight paths per hour.


The additional trains included in this complete timetable package are;

- 1 Swanline service every two hours (making a total of 1tph); - a second train each hour to Maesteg, and; - a new 2tph service between Cardiff and Beddau,

The stopping patterns we have assumed are as described in each of the individual options and include certain services calling at the proposed new stations at St Fagans, M4 Jn34 Parkway and Brackla. The full timetable therefore contains a total of 8tph departing from Cardiff westbound. Given the effective timetable planning headway of 5 minutes (4 minutes headway margin plus 1 minute dwell time for passenger services at Bridgend), then there are a theoretical 12 paths each hour available to be utilised. This, however, assumes that all trains have the same speed and same stopping pattern and the mix of train types, speeds and stopping patterns will reduce this number considerably. Compilation of the complete timetable is constrained by the 2tph semi-fast trains (calling at Bridgend, Port Talbot, Neath and Swansea only) interfacing with a mixture of;

- 2 slow freight trains paths; - 2tph calling all stations between Cardiff and Bridgend; - Trains to Maesteg having to cross the eastbound Main Line at Bridgend,

twice each hour; - 2 tph to Beddau crossing the eastbound Main Line at Pontyclun, and; - The time penalty for trains calling at the new stations on the main line at St

Fagans, M4 Jn34 and at Brackla. In our construction of a full timetable we considered use of the existing passing loops at Miskin (currently freight only) and at Brackla westbound and Pencoed eastbound that could be used to allow faster trains to overtake slower ones. ATW semi-fast services are assumed to be fixed on the clockface as they extend to and from Manchester to the east and Carmarthen / Milford Haven to the west. It is not possible to retime these services east of Cardiff owing to the complex interface at key junctions with other paths on the long distance route between Cardiff and Manchester Piccadilly. Similarly, the First Great Western paths to and from London Paddington are unlikely to be able to be flexed. Should the GWML subsequently be electrified then journey time improvements for the London to Cardiff and Swansea services are likely to be sought. We therefore comment on the flexibility remaining in the timetable to react to modifications in the presentation times of the London services. The half hourly Maesteg services are constrained by the single passing loop at Lynfi immediately north of Tondu where every pair of trains must pass. Retiming trains in one direction therefore means that trains in the opposite direction must be retimed by the same margin. This limits opportunities for moving the Maesteg service around the clock-face, which might otherwise improve utilisation of paths on the main line between Cardiff and Bridgend.


The difficulty of pathing the second of a 2tph service to Beddau means that a short passing loop will be needed on the Beddau branch itself, close to the main line at Pontyclun. A train heading towards Beddau would then cross the eastbound Main Line in an available path and then be held in the loop to allow for a train from Beddau to pass and continue on the Up Main Line from Pontyclun to Cardiff. Pathing could be eased between Cardiff and Bridgend by removing station stops from the second Maesteg service. For example, the XX37 Cardiff to Maesteg could depart 18 minutes later at XX55 and run non-stop to Bridgend. In the eastbound direction, the XX45 from Maesteg could run non-stop from Bridgend to Cardiff, arriving there 10 minutes earlier and therefore providing a better path for the eastbound Beddau service and reducing the unproductive turn round time at the terminus. The timetabling was based on a repeating standard plan for the off-peak period, i.e. when FGW extends only 1tph of its London services west of Cardiff. It includes two 60mph freight paths per hour which have been timed using the slowest timings currently in use in passenger operating hours. The level of track utilisation between Cardiff and Bridgend is, however, very high with limited contingency for service recovery following delay. Delays to a westbound long distance service will knock-on to the local services to Beddau and Maesteg, both of which are single line routes where precise running is required owing to the interaction between westbound and eastbound services on the single line sections and at passing loops. Assuming that the loops at Miskin are upgraded to passenger standards, however, there would be some additional contingency for late running. Thus, if, for example, the London to Swansea service was running late then the following Beddau train could depart on time and run as far as Miskin where the London train could then overtake. The longer turn-rounds on the Beddau branch would then permit the return working to Cardiff to depart on time. Westbound freight services as a train running out of course (either early or late) would have the potential to seriously disrupt the passenger services. Facilities are currently available to hold westbound freight trains in terms of the Down Relief Line between Cardiff Central and Leckwith Jn and the Leckwith Loop. The greater overview of services provided by the South Wales Signalling Centre will enable more proactive train regulation decisions to be made than are possible today. It is theoretically possible to accommodate all services west of Cardiff, with a number of compromises:

- The second Cardiff – Maesteg service needs to be overtaken at Brackla extending its through journey time and resulting in Cardiff departure times not being 30 minutes apart.

- The second Cardiff to Beddau service in each hour must pass a train in the opposite direction clear of the main line at Pontyclun. This results in the need for a passing loop immediately to the north of Pontyclun on the Beddau branch.

- Whilst it has been possible to allocate paths for two freight services in each hour, there is little, if any, flexibility for these to be at any alternative times. There is more flexibility, however, in terms of pathing to the west of Margam.


- Paths are not available to allow eastbound services from Beddau to depart at 30 minute intervals.

We have also assessed the implications in the peaks when FGW extends both London services in each hour to or from Swansea. The additional FGW service can be accommodated in each direction with some re-timing of other passenger services. The effect on freight would be to limit capacity to one path in the peak direction. (b) East of Cardiff East of Cardiff, all eastbound and the majority of westbound passenger services are currently planned to operate over the Main Lines and comprises the following services:

- 2tph to London (FGW); - 1tph to Portsmouth (FGW); - 1tph to Weston / Taunton (FGW); - 1tph to Manchester (ATW); - 1 train every 2 hours to Holyhead (ATW); - 1tph in most hours to Cheltenham (ATW); - 1tph to Ebbw Vale Parkway (ATW), and; - 1tph to Nottingham (XC).

All freight services east of Cardiff are timed to operate over the relief lines and typically between 1 and 3 trains per hour are shown in the working timetable. The additional trains included in this complete timetable package are;

- 1tph to Abertillery; - 1tph to Abergavenny over the relief lines; - 1tph to Chepstow over the relief lines, and; - 1 train every 2 hours to Bristol Temple Meads.

The stopping patterns we have assumed are as described in each of the individual options and include certain services calling at the proposed new stations at St Mellons, Coedkernow, Llanwern and Caerleon. The full timetable therefore contains a total of 12 passenger trains per hour departing from Cardiff eastbound, of which 2tph would operate over the relief lines and call at the new intermediate stations towards Newport. In the following tables we show all passenger services to the east of Cardiff along with the 2tph through freight paths that extend west of Cardiff. Between Cardiff and Newport the Relief Lines will have capacity remaining for at least a further four freight services per hour. To the east of Newport freight would remain the sole user of these lines. It would theoretically be possible to accommodate all services east of Cardiff. There would, however, be a high level of utilisation of the main lines between Newport and Cardiff. Eastbound services, having run for only a short distance tend to be punctual whereas more delays can be expected in the westbound direction. Some further contingency is available for out of course running in this direction in terms of remaining spare capacity on the Relief Lines which would be available to ease pressure on the main lines if bunching of trains occurred.


(c) Full Area Timetable Development of a full area timetable for a standard hour covering the route between the Severn Tunnel / Gloucester and Swansea involved considering how services might be linked across Cardiff in order to minimise terminating services that consume platform capacity and also to optimise rolling stock and traincrew productivity. Services have been linked as follows: Westbound Arrival From Time Forms Destination Ebbw Vale XX06 XX08 Swansea Swanline Cheltenham XX10 XX16 Maesteg Abergavenny XX20 XX24 Beddau Abertillery XX33 XX37 Maesteg Cheptstow XX45 XX54 Beddau Paddington XX47 XX50 Swansea Manchester XX53 XX04 Carmarthan / Milford Eastbound Arrival From Time Forms Destination Beddau XX58 XX06 Ebbw Vale Maesteg XX09 XX12 Cheltenham Swansea Swanline XX19 XX26 Chepstow Swansea XX22 XX25 Paddington Beddau XX33 XX35 Abertillery Maesteg XX42 XX57 Abergavenny Milford / Carmarthan XX46 XX50 Manchester Platform capacity at Cardiff Central remains a key constraint even assuming future post-resignalling full bi-directional capability in all platforms. The track layout at the eastern end also contains a number of constraints. In particular, the inability for parallel departures from platforms 0, 1 and 2 towards the main and relief lines, access to platform 4 from the down main line occupying the down relief line and the short section of single line in the relief lines. C5.12 Conclusions The operations assessment has established realistic, practical, solutions for enabling the robust operation of each option and timetable and infrastructure requirements for all aspirations together. Between Cardiff and Newport the relief line speed limits is reasonable to accommodate new local passenger services and new stations would need to be positioned on the relief lines. East of Newport the relief line speed limits are worse but there is capacity to run additional services on the main line. Inter-worked additional Abergavenny and Chepstow services would be more efficient which would enhance the business cases. West of Cardiff the upgrade and use of the existing freight loops by passenger trains will provide sufficient capacity. It is difficult to stop more trains at new stations (St Fagans and Brackla) and therefore difficult to provide sufficient frequency to support a parkway station at M4 Junction 34.


C6 Post Electrification Operations Review C6.1 Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal (CASR) CASR is Network Rail’s committed CP4 (March 2009 – March 2014) scheme to renew signalling in the Cardiff area in a modern equivalent form. The £220m project, £17m of which is funded by the Welsh Government, will be delivered in five stages starting with the Vale of Glamorgan line. The scheme covers 192 route miles of track and Network Rail will be replacing over 300 signals, 12 miles of track, 59 sets of points and extending Barry line station platforms to 6-cars. The planned renewal of signalling equipment in the Cardiff area will take place in conjunction with capacity enhancements that will provide up to 16 paths in each direction per hour through the core route section between Cardiff Queen Street and Cardiff Central / Cogan Jn. The closure of mechanical signal boxes in the Rhymney Valley and in the Vale of Glamorgan will enable control of most of the Valleys lines to be brought together at the new Wales Railway Operating Centre (WROC) located in Cardiff. The upgrade of the City Line between Cardiff Central, and Radyr via Ninian Park will create further additional capacity to enable diversion and acceleration of peak hour longer distance services such as those between Merthyr and Cardiff. Additional turn-back platforms at Pontypridd, Caerphilly and Barry Town will be provided and will enable peak hour shorter distance services to operate. Two additional platforms will be provided at Cardiff Queen Street, one of which will enable the shuttle service to Cardiff Bay to be operated on a self-contained basis. A new passing-loop will be constructed at Tir Phil (midway between Bargoed and Rhymney) to enable train service frequencies to Rhymney to be doubled to half hourly, in line with the other Heads of the Valleys terminals. Passive provision is also being made for the new station at Energlyn to the north of Caerphilly, due to open in 2015. At Cardiff Central enhanced main line turn-back capability will be provided from the east, together with rationalisation of the eastern approaches allowing improved throughput for both passenger and freight services. This will be delivered by moving the junctions between the Main and Relief lines on the eastern approaches to Cardiff Central approximately 1 mile out to Longdyke where 75mph connections will allow a faster approach. Bi-directional signalling will be provided on all four lines between Cardiff East and Longdyke. A new bi-directionally signalled platform 8 will be provided for Valleys services, together with a new link between platform 4 and the Valley lines to create more capacity and operational resilience. Platform 0 will be upgraded so as to allow loaded passenger trains from the west. These measures will deliver a considerable reduction in conflicts at Cardiff Central, reducing pathing time, allowing trains to more easily turn round in the platforms if required, rather than shunting to Cardiff West, and improve performance. The Cardiff area will see the complete use of Automatic Route Setting technology (ARS) which will be available for the automation of all timetabled train movements including entry and exit from depots and stabling sidings. As such, the workload of the signaller will decrease and only three extra work stations are planned for the entire Cardiff area as compared to the four for Newport, plus a supervisor position. Signaller intervention should only be necessary for unplanned moves and at times of service disruption.


The complete list of infrastructure enhancements that will be provided as part of CASR and with additional funding from Welsh Government is as follows: • Additional capacity at Cardiff Queen Street consisting of one through and

one south facing bay, giving a total of four through, and one bay, platform; • A new through platform 8 at Cardiff Central, providing additional capacity for

Valleys services;

• Enhanced capability of platform 0 at Cardiff Central to permit arriving loaded trains from the west;

• A new south-facing bay platform at Caerphilly, improving capacity for

terminating trains;

• A new south-facing bay platform at Pontypridd, improving capacity for terminating trains;

• A new north-facing bay platform at Barry Town, enabling trains to be

terminated and reversed;

• Doubling of the Trefforest East Curve (Radyr Branch Junction to Penarth Curve North Junction), thereby removing a capacity constraint;

• A new passing loop at Tir-Phil allowing a half hourly service to operate to

Rhymney; and

• Barry line platform extensions CASR is planned to be completed by the end of 2014 in a number of stages as follows: • January 2013 – The VOG line between Barry Town and Bridgend where re-

control of the existing signalling will allow closure of Cowbridge Road and Aberthaw signal boxes;

• June 2013 – From Rhymney to Cardiff Bay with the closure of Bargoed, Ystrad Mynach and Heath signal boxes;

• January 2014 – From Cardiff Queen Street to Barry Island with the closure of Barry signal box. Radyr will remain a fringe box to the WROC;

• May 2014 – East from Cardiff Central to the boundary with the recently completed re-signalling in the Newport area; and

• Christmas 2014 – Cardiff Central station westwards to the boundary with

Port Talbot signal box. At this point the old Cardiff signalling centre and St Fagans gate box will close.

Some residual work will continue into 2015, including the commissioning of the new platform 8 at Cardiff Central CASR will deliver many benefits to the South Wales network in terms of increased capacity, reduced journey times and improved operational performance. These will be delivered by initiatives such as increases in capacity at locations such as Cardiff Central and Queen Street and the removal of operational constraints such as the single track Trefforest Curve and the eastern approaches to Cardiff Central. Bristol Temple Meads – Filton Abbey Wood 4-Tracking


This route section is currently 2-track, but was originally a 4-track railway until rationalisation in 1984. With increased traffic levels in recent years this has become a particular constraint in terms of operational performance and precludes aspirations to develop a metro service for Bristol and to increase service frequencies on inter city and inter-regional routes e.g. between Cardiff and Bristol. Whilst this is not yet a committed scheme, Network Rail has listed the scheme in its list of proposed CP5 (March 2014 – March 2019) enhancements of September 2011. The 4-tracking would need to be completed such that it can be incorporated in the Bristol area re-signalling which is due to be commissioned in May 2015. The 4-tracking scheme currently favoured by Network Rail would provide 4 tracks between Bristol Temple Meads and a new junction to the south of Filton Abbey Wood station. The existing double track would be slued where necessary back to its original alignment and would be re-designated as the Relief Lines. The additional two lines would be constructed on the eastern side and designated as the Main Lines and no platforms would be provided at Lawrence Hill and Stapleton Road. The scheme would greatly increase capacity on this congested section of line and most fast services would then use the Main Lines and avoid pathing constraints caused by local stopping services. This scheme would open up new capacity for enhanced services on this corridor such as an augmented frequency between Cardiff and Bristol. It is worth noting that the Cardiff to Swansea route electrification business case assumes three trains per hour operating on this route. C6.2 Newport – Abergavenny – Hereford A particular constraint on this route is the long 12 mile signal section immediately north of Abergavenny onwards to Pontrilas signal box. This section also contains long and steep gradients in each direction to the intermediate summit at Llanvihangel which is a particular obstacle for the typically heavily loaded northbound freight trains which can take up to 25 minutes to clear the section. Network Rail has recently commissioned an intermediate signal at Llanvihangel to divide the northbound section which is aiding timetabling and improving performance. There has been no similar upgrade in the southbound direction, however, where the running time remains around 10 minutes for a passenger train and considerably more for a freight train. Network Rail has announced that it plans to re-signal this route throughout to (but excluding) Shrewsbury by 2017 with control passing to Cardiff. The work will facilitate 100mph operation and a number of linespeed improvements are planned. NR’s Strategic Business Plan for CP5 states that timetable analysis undertaken in support of scope development has shown that a service of two fast / semi-fast passenger trains per hour will then be achievable along with an hourly Class 6 2,400 tonne freight path. Passive provision will also be made to accommodate an additional hourly service south of Abergavenny for which a new turnback facility will be provided. Revised track layouts will provide the facility for bi-directional signalling over approximately 10 mile sections. There has been no mention of providing passive provision for new stations along this line (Caerleon, Llantarnam, Sebastopol).


C6.3 Electrification Electrification of the rail network in south east Wales has been announced in three packages: • Great Western Main Line (GWML); • Valleys; and • South Wales Main Line (SWML) Figure 29 shows the extent of electrification planned in the South East Wales region: (a) GWML The decision to electrify the GWML was confirmed by the DfT on the 1st March 2011. The scheme will provide electrification from London to Cardiff Central via both Bristol Parkway and Bath. Whilst primarily designed for London services it will also allow local services between Cardiff and Bristol Temple Meads and potentially onwards to Bath and Swindon to be operated by electric trains. All four running lines between Severn Tunnel Junction and Cardiff Central are included in the scheme and therefore it supports initiatives for future local passenger services operating over and calling at new stations located on the Relief Lines. Network Rail is planning to deliver electrification to Bristol by December 2016 with full completion through to Swansea by the December 2018 timetable change. Figure 27 Lines to be Electrified (b) Valleys

The electrification of the Valleys routes was announced by Welsh Government on 16th July 2012. The scheme will provide electrification of almost all routes in South East Wales, complementing the GWML scheme as follows:

Aberdare MerthyrRhymney Abergavenny

Treherbert Ebbw Vale

BargoedAbercynon

Porth To Cheltenham

PontypriddCaerphilly

CorytonMaesteg

Radyr

Heath Jn

Cardiff Queen StreetBridgend

Sw ansea Cardiff Central New port Severn Tunnel Jn To Bristol

Barry Cardiff Bay

PenarthBarry Island

Single Double 4 trackElectrifiedNon-electrified

Merthyr Vale

YstradRhondda

Tondu

Crosskeys

Riska S Jn

Park Jn

Gloucester

Chepstow


• Newport – Ebbw Vale Parkway • Cardiff Central – Penarth / Barry Island and Bridgend via Aberthaw

• Cardiff Central – Coryton / Rhymney

• Cardiff Central – Treherbert / Aberdare / Merthyr via Cathays

• Cardiff Central – Radyr via Ninian Park

• Cardiff Central – Maesteg via Pencoed

• Cardiff Queen St – Cardiff Bay This scheme will enable electric trains to operate on all existing Valleys routes. Platform lengthening work will be included as part of the scheme to allow 6-car EMUs to call at all platforms on the Barry, Treherbert and Rhymney routes. (c) South Wales Main Line The GWML scheme will bring electrification from London to Cardiff Central and the Valleys scheme will extend this west to Bridgend. The SWML scheme announced by Welsh Government on 16th July 2012 provides the extension of electrification from Bridgend to Swansea. This will allow London to Swansea services to be operated by electric trains and also allows local services on the SWML to also be electrically operated. (d) Routes Remaining Diesel Operated The completion of the currently committed electrification schemes will leave two routes in the SEWTA area operated by diesel trains. These are the routes north from Newport to Abergavenny and Hereford and east from Severn Tunnel Jn to Chepstow and Gloucester. We have undertaken a separate assessment of the business case for electrification of these routes. (e) Electric Trains The Valleys business case has assumed that electric multiple units (EMUs) will be made available to be cascaded to the Valleys routes as a result of the Crossrail and Thameslink schemes in the London area. The trains most likely to become available are the class 313 and class 315 EMUs which are currently configured in 3 and 4-car formations respectively. It has been assumed that Valleys trains will normally be formed of 3-cars, which for the class 315 fleet can be achieved by removing the trailer vehicle. Neither fleet is provided with toilets which could be an issue given the length of some journeys e.g. almost an hour from the Heads of the Valleys to Cardiff. All trains remaining in service beyond 2020 must be fully compliant with the needs of persons of reduced mobility (PRM). The class 313/5 fleets will need investment to achieve these requirements, particularly to provide the necessary wheelchair spaces. The absence of toilets is an advantage in this respect as achieving PRM compliance for toilets can be difficult to achieve and costly. It is likely, however, that some derogations from these requirements will remain possible.


The dual voltage class 313s were introduced into service in 1976/7 and are formed of three 20m vehicles with two sets of double sliding doors on each side of each vehicle. This allows for rapid passenger boarding and alighting and the door areas provide useful standing space in peak periods. The 44 class 313s are provided with 3+2 seating high back seating (3 units have low back seats) and a total of 231 seats are provided. Class 313s are capable of the same maximum speed as the current diesel trains of 75mph but have the advantage of superior acceleration and deceleration. The door configuration will also help to minimise station dwells, particularly when compared with the class 142 / 143s. The trains are currently in operation on First Capital Connect services into London’s Moorgate station and are due to be replaced by new build trains as part of the Thameslink scheme. The class 315s are of a similar design to the class 313s but are a little newer having been introduced into service in 1980/1. These are higher capacity trains as they are provided with a fourth trailer vehicle and a total of 318 seats arranged in a 3+2 layout. The trailer vehicle could be removed if required and therefore the seating capacity would be reduced to 234 seats. 61 trains are currently in operation on the East Anglia franchise, with approximately 43 of the fleet currently in use on services on the Shenfield to Liverpool Street route. This route will be transferred to Crossrail and the class 315s replaced by new-build trains. In the absence of any further new builds of trains, the remaining 18 class 315s will continue to operate on other local services into Liverpool Street. The class 313 / 315 trains will offer a considerable increase in seating capacity compared with the existing class 142, 143 and 150 Valleys trains as shown in the Table7-F.

Vehicle Class Cars Seats Notes 142/3 2 102 Includes 12 tip-ups 150 2 139 Includes 23 tip-ups 142/3 4 204 Includes 24 tip-ups 313 3 231 315 3 234 150 + 142/3 4 241 Includes 35 tip-ups 151 + 150 4 278 Includes 46 tip-ups 142/3 + 142/3 + 142/3 6 306 Includes 36 tip-ups 315 4 318 150 + 150 + 150 6 417 313 + 313 6 462 315 + 315 6 468

Table 7-F Rolling Stock Seat Capacity Formations

Comparing capacities with train formations typically in use today, a 3-car class 313 would offer a 13% increase in seats (+27) compared with a 4-car class 142/3 formation and a 66% increase (+92) compared with a 2-car class 150. In terms of the maximum number of seats that may be offered within the constraints of 6-car platforms then this would increase from 417 for a class 150 formation to 462 for a class 313, an increase of more than 10%.


C6.4 Impacts of Schemes on SEWTA Strategy (a) Cardiff – Bristol The aspiration is to increase service frequency between Cardiff and Bristol from the current two to three trains per hour. There are a number of key constraints today on the section between Cardiff and Bristol, namely: • Path availability between Cardiff and Newport; • Pathing westbound trains through Severn Tunnel Junction station;

• Pathing of trains through the Severn Tunnel where the headway is 5

minutes;

• Pathing of trains in the Patchway and Filton Junction areas;

• Path availability between Bristol Temple Meads and Stapleton Road; and

• the interface of other FGW and XC paths at Bristol and the irregular Avonmouth / Severn Beach service which occupies three different paths dependent on the particular hour.

Whilst CASR will not improve timetable headways between Cardiff and Newport it will greatly improve the flexibility of Cardiff Central station and facilitate the closer spacing of departures towards Newport in line with the current Timetable Planning rules minimum headway of 4 minutes. Re-casting of the timetable as described in the next paragraph would then potentially release capacity over this section of line. Electrification of the SWML and the introduction into service of higher performance IEP trains on routes to London will pre-empt a major timetable re-cast not just on the SWML but throughout the south west of England and south Wales. DfT’s assumed IEP timetable shows the same 2tph frequency on the London to south Wales route, but adds an additional 2tph between London and Bristol Temple Meads via Bristol Parkway. The latter is dependent on the delivery of the 4-tracking between Bristol TM and Filton. The timings of the London services are likely to be very different to today and consequently the inter-regional and local services will need to be re-timed to fit around the re-specified London services across the Cardiff to Bristol corridor. The Bristol to Filton 4-tracking scheme will deliver the capacity needed for the projected additional London services but will also provide capacity for the expansion of other services in the area which could include additional inter-regional services between Cardiff and Bristol. The complete route will also be electrified and therefore expanded services would be able to be operated using more cost-effective and efficient trains. (b) Cardiff – Chepstow The aspiration is for an increase in service frequency at Chepstow from the approximately hourly interval today to two trains per hour through the provision of a new Cardiff to Chepstow service. The additional train would call at Newport, Severn Tunnel Jn, Caldicot and Chepstow and also at the projected new stations at St Mellons, Coedkernow and Llanwern. St Mellons and Coedkernow stations would be located on the Relief lines. We assume that Llanwern station would remain situated on the Main lines.


The Chepstow route is not included in the electrification programme and therefore diesel trains would continue to be required. The timetable on the route as currently configured, with the Cheltenham services running to and from Maesteg, would logically be re-worked such that an arrival from Cheltenham then formed a departure to Chepstow and an arrival from Chepstow formed a departure to Cheltenham. This arrangement would require a total of six rolling stock diagrams. The introduction of electric trains on most other routes will, however, restrict rolling stock inter-working opportunities at Cardiff Central and could potentially lead to sub-optimal rolling stock deployment in some timetable scenarios. It is not straightforward to make a direct comparison with the resources used for the current timetable as trains run through to Maesteg and there are a number of gaps in the hourly timetable. If it is assumed that the current Cheltenham services operated independently from the Maesteg route than 2 diagrams are required in the morning and 3 in the afternoon. (c) Cardiff – Abergavenny The service aspiration is for a new hourly local service between Cardiff and Abergavenny calling at the projected new stations at St Mellons and Coedkernow, Newport, Cwmbran, a projected new station at Caerleon, Pontypool & New Inn and Abergavenny. The Abergavenny route is not included in the electrification programme and therefore diesel trains would continue to be required. The introduction of electric trains on most other routes will restrict rolling stock inter-working opportunities at Cardiff Central. Assuming that the Chepstow route additional services inter-work with those to Cheltenham then the Abergavenny route would need to operate independently with a net additional three and not two diagrams being required. Then additional diagrams could be reduced back to two if the services was able to be timed with 5 minute turnrounds at each end or inter-worked with another route. The outcome depends on how this service fits within the others in the overall strategy. (d) Cardiff / Newport – Ebbw Vale The aspiration is to increase service frequency from one to two trains per hour by the addition of a second hourly service between Ebbw Vale Parkway and Newport direct calling at all stations on the Ebbw Vale line. All services would be extended from Ebbw Vale Parkway to Ebbw Vale Town and call at two additional stations on the route at Crumlin and Pye Corner. The route between Cardiff and Ebbw Vale Parkway is included within the electrification programme. It is not clear from the Valleys electrification business whether the short section of line between Park Junction and Gaer Junction on the outskirts of Newport is included within the scope of the scheme. If not, then its costs will need to be included along with those of electrifying the additional double track section between Newbridge and Aberbeeg required for a half-hourly service along with turnback facilities at Newport. To operate the second service an additional two EMU diagrams would be required. (e) Cardiff – Abertillery The aspiration is to re-open the former railway between Aberbeeg Junction and Abertillery and to provide a new hourly service between Abertillery and Cardiff Central calling at all stations.


The route between Cardiff and Aberbeeg is included within the electrification programme and it would be logical to extend electrification the short distance from Aberbeeg to Abertillery in order to gain the benefits from operating a common fleet of higher performance, cost effective trains on the route that can be effectively inter-worked at Cardiff Central. To operate this service an additional two EMU diagrams would be required. (f) Cardiff – Swansea The aspiration is to increase the existing local all stations Cardiff – Swansea service frequency from broadly 2-hourly to hourly. The route is included within the electrification programme and higher performance EMUs will improve journey times and aid pathing on this heavily graded route. An additional two EMU diagrams would be required for this service. (g) Cardiff – Maesteg Including Brackla Station The aspiration is to open a new station at Brackla, approximately 1 mile to the east of Bridgend on the SWML with initially the existing hourly Maesteg services calling. In the longer term the aspiration is for the service level to be increased to 2tph and served by either an enhanced Maesteg or Swanline service. The route is included within the electrification programme and the Valleys Electrification Business Case sample timetables suggest the potential for some considerable journey time savings on this route. For example Cardiff – Bridgend reduced from 27 to 23 minutes and Bridgend to Maesteg from 26 to 24 minutes. These improvements will greatly aid pathing of calls at Brackla, potentially removing the need for any trains to be looped. It will also enable more robust turnrounds to be achieved at Maesteg. The reduction in running time also allows for the Maesteg and Ebbw Vale routes to be linked across Cardiff, thereby delivering efficiencies in rolling stock utilisation. NR is planning to resignal the Maesteg branch in advance of electrification during CP5 with the closure of Tondu signal box. Control will pass to Port Talbot initially and in turn to Cardiff during CP6. The longer term aspiration is to double the frequency of the Maesteg service to half-hourly which will require the electrification of the upgraded loop at Tondu for the trains to pass. Should a new Cardiff to Abertillery service be introduced then both services would be able to be efficiently linked across Cardiff. Further new stations are proposed between Bridgend and Cardiff at St Fagans and Miskin (M4 Junction 34) which could also potentially be served by the electrified Maesteg services, taking advantage of the improved performance of electric trains on the capacity-constrained SWML. (h) Cardiff – Bridgend via VOG The aspiration is to increase service frequency between Barry and Bridgend from the existing hourly interval to two trains per hour. In the current timetable all trains run through from Cardiff Central and Queen Street where they are linked with the Merthyr route southbound and the Aberdare route northbound. This takes account of the passenger need to have through services to and from Cardiff Queen St. North of Queen St there are very little commercial but strong operational reasons for linking services.


This route is included within the electrification programme and the Valleys Electrification Business Case indicative timetables assume a second service to be in operation on the route, occupying a path made available by CASR capacity enhancements between Cardiff Queen Street and Cogan Jn. The assumed journey time saving between Cardiff Central and Bridgend is a modest 2 minutes compared with today although this will help in making the turnrounds at Bridgend more robust. (i) Cardiff – Beddau The aspiration is to reopen the approximately 5km of the former railway between Pontyclun and Beddau and operate an hourly service between Cardiff Central and Beddau calling at a new station at Fagans and Pontyclun. The route between Cardiff and Pontyclun is included within the electrification programme and it would be logical to extend electrification the 5km distance from Pontyclun to Beddau in order to gain the benefits from operating a common fleet of higher performance, cost effective trains on the route that can be effectively inter-worked at Cardiff Central. To operate this service an additional two EMU diagrams would be required.


Appendix D Summary of Engineering Reviews

D1 Introduction The engineering review assessed a number of initiatives which were not reviewed in the previous Sewta Rail Strategy study and in parallel studies. It involved site visits, assessment of constraints and solutions, identification of infrastructure requirements and quantification of costs. In addition, the costs of a number of previously identified projects were reviewed. D2 Newport to Caerphilly This option involved reinstating a rail link between Newport and Caerphilly via Machen for either an hourly or half-hourly service between Caerphilly and Newport. The line between Bassaleg Junction and Machen Quarry, although reduced to a single track, in used currently for stone traffic. At the quarry, the former running lines have been retained to provide loading sidings and run-round facilities with the loading conveyor spanning the tracks. The line continues beyond the quarry to provide a headshunt. The layout would need to be remodelled to provide new sidings and rail loading facilities. The former station at Bassaleg has been converted into the “Junction 28” restaurant. It appears feasible to provide a new basic station on the former site without the need to acquire the restaurant. A new platform could be built on the trackbed of the former up line or, alternatively, beyond the former main station building to minimise any adverse effects on the restaurant. Additional car parking spaces for rail users could be provided beyond the existing car park. Two possible alternative sites have been identified west of the original station. The first is located at ST274874 with access from Laurel Road or Graig Close. The second is on Grosvenor Road at ST265873. Both sites would be nearer the centre of Bassaleg, although access would be through residential streets and parking would be limited at Grosvenor Road. At Machen it would be feasible to provide a new station on the former site with access from the A468 via Lewis Street and Penrhiw Lane and car parking at the west end of the site in the area used currently as a paddock. An alternative station site below Sunnybank Terrace could be feasible with vehicular access from Dranllwyn Lane. Although the road is narrow there are fewer properties and on-street parking is less likely to restrict access. Between Machen Quarry and Dranllwyn Lane the railway alignment is generally on a shelf of varying width along the hillside with steep and narrow approach roads from the A468. The section is in private ownership and has been partially redeveloped with residential property. To the east of the Penrhiw Lane overbridge a house and garden have been built on the trackbed and, on the west side, the former station building has been converted to residential use and extended across it. West of the station house, there is a commercial property in the former goods yard area and the formation to Dranllwyn Lane is used as a paddock. The junction for the original line to Caerphilly via Waterloo and its subsequent alignment across the A468 has been lost under residential redevelopment.


West of Dranllwyn Lane, the original route to Rhymney, together with the later Pontypridd, Caerphilly and Newport line, run parallel with the A468 until the former diverges to the north adjacent to the Graig-y-Rhacca residential development. The Caerphilly line falls away from the Rhymney route to run through a short rock cutting and pass under the A468 and onto an embankment before crossing the river. The bridges over Dranllwyn Lane and Penllwyn Lane have been partly demolished. North of the Penllwyn Lane underbridge there is residential property on both sides of the road located facing the trackbed and at the same level. This section of the original line to Rhymney from Dranllwyn Lane to Trethomas has been converted to a cycleway. To the north east of the bridge under the A468 the rock cutting has been partially infilled and a farm building appears to have been partially constructed across it. There was no station at Trethomas on the line to Caerphilly although Fountain Bridge Halt was located between the A468 and the river Rhymney. A possible site, part of which may need to be acquired to enable the railway to be reopened, exists adjacent to A 468 and appears to be currently in commercial or agricultural use. It appears feasible to provide a pedestrian link from this site to the residential developments of Graig-y-Rhacca and eastern Trethomas although this would require the provision of a footbridge. South of the River Rhymney the alignment crosses agricultural land, initially on an embankment falling to natural ground level before it curves to the southwest to run parallel with the road forming the boundary of the Lansbury Park and Castle Park residential estates. The line crossed Van Road by an underbridge and continued on an embankment to join the existing railway with a facing junction on the Cardiff side of Caerphilly station. The bridge over the River Rhymney has been demolished, although the two overbridges across Rudry Road and Gwern-y-Domen Lane remain. The bridge over Van Road has been demolished and the embankment to Caerphilly East Junction has been removed in connection with a highway improvement scheme and the provision of a dedicated access road to the station car park. It is assumed that at station at Caerphilly East would be located along the road forming the eastern boundary to the Lansbury Park and Castle Park estates. The station would have a linear car park between the road and the railway. Due to perceived capacity constraints in Newport station it will not be possible for a Caerphilly train to wait in the platform for its return journey. It is proposed that the train should be stabled between trips by using the loop between Maindee West and North Junctions. The status of this loop following the Newport Area Signalling Renewals is unclear currently and it is been assumed that it will be removed and would need to be reinstated in association with this proposal. It is proposed to reopen the route as a single track which would support an hourly service. However the introduction of a half-hourly service would require the provision of a passing loop. From an engineering perspective, the best location for a loop would be between Bassaleg Junction and Dranllwyn Lane bridge west of Machen station. This section appears to have been double track and two tracks remain adjacent to Machen Quarry. For a minimum cost option, the loop would not be in a station. However, if the loop was in a station, for example Machen, then additional works would be required including a second platform and a footbridge. It has been assumed for estimating that the loop would be a minimum of 400m long. This length


would need to be reviewed if the loop was located east of Machen Quarry to enable it to be used by freight trains. Reopening of the railway will require permanent acquisition of the land of the former route together with some additional land for the station sites. In addition some land will need to be acquired temporarily for access and construction sites. Powers to acquire the land would be obtained by an Order under the Transport and Works Act. From aerial photographs much of the land remains unused and its acquisition may not be too contentious. However, reopening the route through Machen will require the acquisition and demolition of two residential properties, although it is probable that the commercial property adjacent to the station site could be retained. In addition, residents of Sunnybank Terrace and the houses of Penllwyn Lane will be in close proximity to the line and, although the properties pre-date the closure of the original line, it is probable that there will be significant resistance to any reopening proposals. Any alternative routes would still affect property and would not serve Trethomas or Machen adequately. The capital costs for an hourly service option are £78.6m including project management, design and network rail costs and 30% contingency / risk. To this costs associated with obtaining an Order under the Transport and Works Act, land acquisition and compensation costs need to be added, assumed as around £6m. The cost of providing a passing loop 400m long between Bassaleg Junction and Dranllwyn Lane, Machen, clear of the proposed stations is estimated as £2.1m and the option of providing a passing loop 400m long in a station is £3.9m. This assumes that the loop is incorporated within the initial scheme. In conclusion, it appears feasible to reinstate the line between Machen Quarry and Caerphilly to facilitate through passenger services from Newport, assuming that the works to provide a bay platform at Caerphilly station are undertaken by others as part of the capacity improvement scheme between Cardiff and Caerphilly. The principal risks relate to the works at Caerphilly, Machen Quarry and Maindee and also the potential objections to property acquisition. D3 Beddau via Pontyclun A report on the reintroduction of passenger services to Beddau was prepared in 2005 and reached the following conclusion: “At this stage, it appears feasible to reinstate the branch line between Pontyclun and Beddau to facilitate through services to Cardiff at an estimated spot cost of £12.7m (1Q05). This assumes that the junction and associated signalling are included in the Cardiff Area Resignalling Project. Technically the principal risks relate to the condition of the existing structures and the acceptability of the junction layout at Pontyclun to Network Rail. Confirmation of the requirement for an Order under the Transport and Works Act should be sought as soon as possible due to the implications for project cost and programme.” Since the 2005 Report three significant changes have been identified that could affect the conclusions;

- The crossover on the South Wales Main Line at Pontyclun has been removed and will need to be replaced.

- The Church Village By-Pass has severed the route and an underbridge will need to be provided.


- The attitude of Network Rail and the ORR (Railway Inspectorate) towards level crossings has hardened further and it is probable that retaining the crossing of the Talbot Green By-Pass, even upgraded to CCTV control, would be totally unacceptable.

(a) Church Village By-Pass The recently opened Church Village By-Pass has severed the former railway alignment on the northern approach to the Gwaun Meisgyn roundabout (ST065839). It is understood that at the planning stage of the new highway an underbridge was considered at this location, however it was replaced with embankment. To provide the planned link between Pontyclun and Beddau it will be necessary to construct an overbridge at this location. (b) Talbot Green By-Pass Level Crossing The existing level crossing traverses the dual carriageway Talbot Green By-Pass. At closure it was a Train Man Operated (TMO) Crossing. The 2005 Report stated that it would need to be replaced by a controlled crossing with full barriers monitored by CCTV (as at Llantrisant West on the main line). This would require rail signals to protect the crossing. Grade separation of road and rail traffic has always been an aspiration of Network Rail, the Railway Inspectorate and their predecessors and the continuing growth in road user indiscipline at level crossings has added impetus to this aspiration. As a result, it is now considered improbable that Network Rail and the Railway Inspectorate would permit any form of level crossing at this site. In this event the most likely scenario would be to build a rail underbridge. This would rise on a ramp from the Ely River bridge and cross the road on a heavily skewed structure before dropping down a ramp to the site of the proposed Talbot Green station. The gradient rising up from the Ely River bridge is estimated to be maximum of 1 in 35 which, combined with the curvature, may be problematic. The bridge would require the reconstruction of the footbridge over the by-pass and the existing railway formation. (c) Costs The revised costs are estimated as £37.3m including project management, design, network rail costs and 30% contingency and risk. The costs of obtaining an Order under the Transport and Works Act (T&WA), land acquisition and compensation costs could be in the order of £3.7m. (d) Conclusions Notwithstanding the additional bridge works due to the construction of the Church Village By-Pass and the assumed requirement for grade separation between rail and road at Cowbridge Road it still appears feasible to reinstate the branch line between Pontyclun and Beddau to facilitate through services to Cardiff. Technically the principal risks remain unchanged except that the feasibility of a bridge to replace Cowbridge Road Level Crossing would require urgent consideration. Confirmation of the requirement for an Order under the Transport and Works Act should be sought as soon as possible due to the implications for project


cost and programme and it is recommended that consideration is given to protecting the route from any further development. An alternative to reopening the whole route to Beddau would be to provide the terminus next to the Gwaun Meisgyn roundabout (ST065839) at a scheme cost of £33.3m (excluding land and TWA costs). This would avoid the cost and disruption of constructing a bridge at the expense of not serving Beddau (Tynant) and it would not have good access to the proposed strategic development site at Cwm Coking Works proposed in the Council’s adopted local development plan (850 – 950 dwellings). Technically the principal risks remain unchanged except that the feasibility of a bridge to replace Cowbridge Road Level Crossing would require urgent consideration. D4 Beddau via Creigiau It has been proposed to consider the options for providing a rail connection between the communities of Beddau and Llantrisant and Cardiff, through reinstating an alternative link using the alignment of the former route between Waterhall Junction, located north of Fairwater station on the Cardiff City Line at ST 143782 between Cardiff Central and Radyr, and Common Branch Junction located east of Cross Inn at ST 056832. The remainder of the route between Common Branch Junction and Beddau is the same as for the Pontyclun option. The site of Waterhall Junction and approximately 400m of the route are now within a housing estate although some of the estate roads follow the alignment. From Fairwood Close the route becomes a green way and cycle track. Waterhall Road overbridge at ST 137786 has been rebuilt as a pedestrian underpass using a corrugated steel tube. The route continues as a cycle track to Waterhall Plantation. Beyond this point the trackbed is not generally accessible but it appears that the intersection bridge with the Barry Railway line from Barry to Caerphilly has been partially demolished although the nearby Crofft-y-genau Road overbridge at ST 114795 remains The M4 severs the route and beyond it the bridge that carried the line over the A4119 has been demolished. A section of the trackbed between the A4119 and the Heol Pant-y-Gored overbridge at ST 089807 (6m 64ch LTO) has been redeveloped as a trout lake and the section onwards to Creigiau appears to be used as a drainage channel. At Creigiau station site the road bridges remain over both the Common Branch line and the parallel Barry Railway route to Pontypridd. A bus and coach operator uses the former station site as a yard. Beyond Creigiau the trackbed is not generally accessible although the Creigiau Road overbridge at ST 078826 (8m 13ch LTO) and the Rhiwsaeson underbridge at ST 070827 remain in situ. The alignment is severed by the A473 although the bridge over the former alignment of the A473 at Common Branch Junction remains. The rail underbridge at Rhiwsaeson is of riveted plate construction on masonry abutments and has a sub-standard headroom. Beyond Common Branch Junction, the alignment is heavily overgrown in the cuttings adjacent to the A473 bridges at ST 062838 and ST 067845 (Gwaunmiskin). Between these two bridges, the recently opened Church Village By-Pass has severed the former railway alignment on the northern approach to the Gwaun Meisgyn roundabout (ST065839). At Tynant (Beddau) between Gwaunmiskin cutting and the B4595 there is a former yard site at the proposed end of the line.


The only underbridge identified on this stretch is the 6m estimated span metallic underbridge at 2m 49c (LTR), ST 067841. This bridge comprises riveted plate main girders, cross girders and railbearers with steel plate parapets. Superficially, this appears to be in fair condition although there is some significant corrosion to the railbearers. It is plated at 13’-3”. It is assumed that Fairwater West station would be located close to where the railway alignment passes beneath Waterhall Road (ST 137786). It appears feasible to provide a station on either side of the bridge. On the eastern side, road access would be on the north side from Tangmere Drive with the existing grassed area utilised for car parking. Similarly on the western side road access could be from Ashdene Close. Depending on development plans for the area extensive car parking could provided on the western side. However, for the purposes of the estimate, allowance has been made 25 car parking spaces. The proposed station at Creigiau would be on the site of the former station. At this location the original trackbeds of both the Waterhall line and the adjacent Barry Railway line appear to be undeveloped with the adjoining station yard in industrial use. A new station would be created as Llantrisant (Common Branch Junction) 1km further towards Beddau than in the via Pontyclun option. An alternative site is proposed at ST 056832 on the north side of the A473 with access from the old road. The underbridges at Rhiwsaeson and Heol Dowlais (2m 49ch LTR) have steel decks and it is assumed that these will be reconstructed. Nine public footpaths have been identified as crossing the trackbed. It is assumed that footbridges will be provided at each site. It is proposed to reopen the route as a single track which would support an hourly service. However the introduction of a half-hourly service would require the provision of a passing loop. From an engineering perspective, the best location for a loop would be in the vicinity of Creigiau station where the trackbed of the Waterhall to Common Branch Line runs parallel with the former Barry Railway line to Pontypridd. Although the Barry line formation is higher, there appears to be sufficient width available to grade the trackbed to provide sufficient width for a loop. It should be noted that this is also approximately the mid-point of the route between Waterhall and Beddau. For a minimum cost option, the loop would not be in the station itself but located north of it towards Beddau. However, if the loop was in the station, additional works would be required including a second platform and a footbridge. It has been assumed for estimating that the loop would be 400m long. Reopening of the railway will require permanent acquisition of the land of the former route together with some additional land for the station sites. In addition some land will need to be acquired temporarily for access and construction sites. Powers to acquire the land would be obtained by an Order under the Transport and Works Act. In the Waterhall Junction area, reopening the line would require the acquisition and demolition of a number of residential properties, particularly in and around Fairwood Close. Many other properties would be affected due to its proximity, although some of these appear to pre-date the closure of the original line.


An alternative route between Creigiau and the South Wales Main Line at St. Fagan’s, using the trackbed of the former Barry Railway Main Line and running parallel with the A4232 south of Junction 33, would avoid the property issues at Waterhall. The initial technical and operational feasibility of this route has not been considered at this stage. From the aerial photographs much of the land is either used for agricultural purposes or remains unused and its acquisition may not be too contentious subject to suitable compensation arrangements. Two areas of scope risk have been identified, property acquisition at Waterhall Junction, and works associated with the provision of the M4 bridge. The estimated capital costs including the 5 stations are £67.0m including project management, design, network rail costs and 30% contingency / risk. Additional costs associated with obtaining an Order under the Transport and Works Act (T&WA), land acquisition and compensation costs are estimated as around £7.5m, including a higher percentage than has been allowed for other line reopening proposals to reflect the effect on residential property particularly in the Waterhall Junction area. The additional cost of providing a passing loop 400m long in the Creigiau area clear of the proposed station is £2.1m. Alternatively for provision of the loop at Creigiau Station with additional track and signalling, additional platform and footbridge with lifts has a cost of £3.9. All figures assume that it is constructed at the same time as the base project. In conclusion, it appears technically feasible to reinstate the line between Waterhall Junction and Beddau to through passenger services. However, the scope of the residential property acquisition that would be required at Waterhall Junction may prove unacceptable. The principal risks will be related to property acquisition, particularly in the Waterhall Junction area, and the construction of the new crossing over the M4. D5 Albany Road / Crwys Road Station The proposed station is located on the Rhymney line between Cardiff Queen Street and Heath Junction. The site is where Crwys Road passes over the railway. The area is predominantly residential with a large student population. The double track railway line is straight with a distance from the track to the boundary estimated at 4m. The railway is at the same general level as the surrounding streets and Crwys Road rises on retained approach ramps to cross the railway on an estimated 45o skew. At the north west corner of the bridge there is an empty 3 or 4 storey building with a footprint estimated at 300m2. It is proposed that the station is located on the north side of the bridge with a ticket office and access from Crwys Road on the site of the existing empty building which would be demolished. The new structure would occupy a smaller footprint than the existing thereby freeing up space at ground level for limited car parking. The footbridge would be located at the Cardiff end of the platforms with DDA compliant access provided by CCTV monitored lifts. Platforms would be a minimum of 2.5m wide increased to the platform access.


Depending on the condition of the empty building, it could be possible to retain and refurbish it to include the ticket office and station access together with commercial use of the remaining space. However this would be at the expense of any station car parking. Although there is sufficient width for the platforms, maintaining a minimum width of 2.5m adjacent to the access may require some land acquisition on the down side – the building at the north east corner of the road bridge could be suitable. The estimated capital costs for the new station are £3.4m including project management, design NR costs and 30% contingency and risk. In addition, costs associated with obtaining an Order under the Transport and Works Act (T&WA), land acquisition and compensation costs are estimated at £0.34m. D6 Coedkernew New Station It is proposed to provide a new station, Coedkernew, on the South Wales Main Line (SWM) between Newport and Cardiff to meet perceived demand from housing and commercial developments to the north of the railway. Between Newport and Cardiff the South Wales Main Line comprises four tracks with the main lines to the north and the relief lines on the south. The alignment is straight and generally on a low embankment across the Wentlooge Level. The relief lines are used primarily by freight trains on a regular basis with permanent speed restrictions of between 40mph and 60mph. A proposal to upgrade these lines for increased use by passenger trains with an increase in the permitted maximum speed is being considered currently. The platforms are located on the relief lines due to capacity constraints on the main lines. This can be achieved by providing a single island platform with a maximum width of 6.5m to accommodate a 1.5m wide waiting shelter. This would be connected to both sides of the line by a DDA compliant footbridge located at one end of the platform to minimise the width. As a result, the down relief line would need to be slued to the south by a maximum of 6m to accommodate the platform. The total length of slue has been estimated at 1000 metres. The station site would be located to avoid any costs associated with the widening of the overbridges due to the track slue. To serve the commercial development could be located between the bridges at ST290834 (162m 06ch SWM) and ST280826 (162m 671/2ch SWM) respectively. Road access could be provided by extending the road serving the development. The station would be better located on the Newport side the bridge at 162m 06ch with road access from the B4239. A key issue will be the ground conditions on the south side of the railway for the formation widening to accommodate the track slue that could have a significant impact on the cost of the works. The extent of the Network Rail’s land ownership adjacent to the existing railway is unknown currently and powers under the T&WA may be required to acquire the necessary strip. If the total length of track slue is increased beyond 1000m or the station site moved significantly towards an overbridge then it could become necessary to reconstruct the bridge to increase its span. The estimated capital costs for the new station are £6.5m including project management, design, NR costs and 30% contingency and risk. An additional allowance of £0.65m should be allowed for TWA and legal costs.


D7 M4 Junction 34 New Station It is proposed to provide a new station on the South Wales Main Line (SWM) adjacent to Junction 34 (Llantrisant) of the M4 and two miles on the Cardiff side of the existing Pontyclun station. The site is located at the Pontyclun end of the Miskin goods loops where the railway is crossed by the secondary road between Junction 34 and the village of Clawdd Coch. On the up side there is an access road to commercial premises. The existing goods loops are 50 chains (1000m) long and have a maximum speed throughout of 15 mph. It is proposed to locate the platforms on the loops to minimise operational risk arising from the restricted capacity of this route. The entry/exit points to the loops are positioned on the Cardiff side of the bridge together with the signal controlling the exit from the down loop. To minimise the risk of signal sighting problems it is proposed to place the footbridge between the signal and the road bridge. Access to the station and car park would be from the road leading to commercial buildings on the up side. Platforms would be a nominal minimum of 143m long to accommodate trains of six 23m long vehicles with a 5m stopping tolerance. They would have a minimum width of 2.5m increased to 6m at the footbridge access point. It will be necessary to upgrade the loops for use by passenger trains and increase the entry speed to 25 mph. To facilitate this it has been assumed that it will be necessary to replace the turnout giving access to the loops and adjust the vertical and horizontal alignments. Any alterations to signalling equipment could be included within the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewals Project. The upgrading of the loops will be driven by both operational and signalling requirements and should be determined in association with the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewals Project. This project is currently being developed by Network Rail and they should be advised of the proposal. It has been assumed that access will be from the road serving the commercial buildings on the up side. The status of this road has not been investigated at this stage and rights of access to a station site may need to be negotiated. The estimated capital costs for the new station are £6.3m including project management, design and NR costs and 30% contingency and risk. An additional allowance of £0.65m should be included for costs associated with obtaining an Order under the Transport and Works Act, land acquisition and compensation costs. D8 Trecynon New Station A proposal for extending the Cynon Valley line from Aberdare to Hirwaun is being developed currently. In association with those studies there is a further proposal to evaluate the case for a station serving Trecynon, approximately one mile north of Aberdare. The proposed site of the station is where the railway crosses the B4276. Llwydcoed Road. At this location the railway comprises a single line on a double track formation carried generally on an embankment and the alignment appears to be straight. The road leaves the junction with the A4059 on the south west side of the railway to pass under it and bend sharply to the left climbing above the level of the railway. Between the road and the railway at the north east side there is a derelict industrial site with direct access to Llwydcoed Road.


It is proposed that the station is located on the north east side of the railway on part of the former industrial site. The 45m long platform would have direct DDA compliant access from the adjacent car parking area by ramp. The platform would have a minimum width of 2.5m increased adjacent to the platform access and waiting shelter. Due to the potential available area of the site there appear to be no problems in providing car parking for a minimum of 50 cars subject to any other development proposals for the site. The access to the site from Llwydcoed Road will need to be considered as the junction would be located close to a bend in the road where sightlines could be restricted. The availability of the site will be dependent on any redevelopment proposals and the access from Llwydcoed Road will need to be developed. Consideration should be given as to whether an Order under the T&WA is required or whether the works can be undertaken under normal planning procedures. The estimated capital costs for the new station are £0.90m with and additional £70k for TWA, land and compensation. D9 Cost Reviews (a) Ystrad Mynach – Bedlinog The previous Rail Strategy Study examined introduction of passenger services to Bedlinog and reached the following conclusion: “It appears feasible to reinstate passenger services on the branch line between Ystrad Mynach and Bedlinog to facilitate through services to Cardiff at a cost of £6.2m (1Q05) for option 2. This assumes that provision for occasional freight paths needs to be maintained and that this can be achieved by the provision of an additional signalling section at Bedlinog. Technically the principal risks relate to the possible requirement for derogation from standards in respect of the siting of station platforms on gradients and curves and the scope of the infrastructure required to cater for the residual freight service.” At that time the line had been retained to serve a coal recovery point at Cwmbargoed although no trains were running. Since then operations have restarted with up to five return trips per day envisaged to 2025. Further freight services to serve a waste transfer facility are also being considered. Three alternative options for signalling the line had been considered. These were dependent on the level of service on the line and in particular the number of freight trains that would need to be accommodated between the proposed hourly passenger service. The three options were: 1. Retain existing arrangements Access to and egress from the branch is controlled by mechanical signals operated from Ystrad Mynach Signal Box. There is no other signalling on the branch and it is operated under Train Staff and Ticket arrangements with a single section from Ystrad Mynach South Junction to Cwmbargoed Level Crossing, which is located 38c before the end of the line. This system of signalling has been superseded and would be replaced by a modern equivalent under the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewals Project.


Due to the running times along the branch, this system would not allow freight trains to be operated between a regular hourly passenger service and, consequently, would probably be unacceptable to the Freight Operating Company. 2. Create an additional signal section If the line were operated in two sections, Ystrad Mynach to Bedlinog and Bedlinog to Cwmbargoed, it would be possible, with a modest increase in the permissible line speed for freight trains, to maintain an hourly passenger service with a sufficient margin for a freight path. The additional section between Ystrad Mynach and Bedlinog could be controlled in a number of ways. However, it has been assumed that signals would be provided at Bedlinog together with a remote token instrument for the section north to Cwmbargoed. 3. Create an additional section and restore the Ystrad Mynach Up Loop The signalling on the branch would be as option 2 above, however the up loop would be reinstated with a minimum length of 500m to enable freight trains entering the branch to be regulated in the event of service perturbation thereby minimising disruption. The conclusions reached remain valid with the exception that to accommodate the freight traffic on the branch and ensure optimum service reliability signalling option 3 should be adopted. This will add the reinstatement of the up loop at Ystrad Mynach. The revised estimated project cost is £7.9m, including contingency and risk. The previous report concluded that an Order under the Transport and Works Act would not be required as the line is still operational for freight services. Consequently no allowance has been made for any associated costs. D10 Electrification Costs It is assumed that future network extension options would need to be electrified. To assess the change in capital costs of the Sewta network extension proposals assessed in the study an average electrification cost was calculated from the published electrification reports and network distances. The quoted costs in 2002 prices are £367.9m for 179.5 route miles – an average of £2.05m / mile. Table 3-A shows the application of the electrification cost to the Sewta Strategy network extension options.

Option Distance Electrification Cost (2002

prices)

Electrification Cost (2010

prices)

Total Cost (2010

prices) Bedlinog – Ystrad Mynach 6.5 miles £13.3m £16.9m £24.8m Hirwaun – Aberdare 4 miles £8.2m £10.4m £36.5m Beddau – Pontyclun 5 miles £8.3m £10.6m £56.7m Beddau – Fairwater 9 miles £18.5m £23.5m £98.0m Caerphilly - Newport 12 miles £24.6m £31.3m £115.9m

Table 7-G Additional Electrification Costs – New Lines Options

The electrification cost is a relatively high proportion (two thirds) of the Bedlinog – Ystrad Mynach scheme. It is highly likely that this route would need to be electrified as the strategy assumes extension of the local Cardiff – Caerphilly services.


The electrification cost is a significant addition to the Hirwaun – Aberdare scheme (one third). As this scheme assumes extension of the Cardiff – Aberdare services the route would need to be electrified. For the other schemes the electrification cost is between 20% and 25% of the capital costs. These services are likely to be completely new operations so there could be options to avoid the costs of electrification at the outset through operation of shorter diesel trains.


Appendix E Summary of Scheme Appraisals

E1 Summary of Strategic Appraisal The 2010 Rail Strategy Study undertook a Strategic Appraisal and sifting of the Sewta initiatives. The process and results are summarised below. E1.1 Sewta Rail Strategy Objectives In 2010 the Sewta Rail Strategy Update workshop reviewed the objectives to enable the developing policy background reflected in the Wales Spatial Plan, National Transport Plan and Regional Transport Plan to direct the outcomes of the recommended strategy. The workshop was attended by local authorities, train operating company, Network Rail and Welsh Government representatives. Several objectives were identified related to improving accessibility / connectivity – largely related to enhancing the economy;

- To improve access for all to employment opportunities, services healthcare, education, tourism and leisure facilities.

- To improve connectivity by sustainable transport between South-East Wales and the rest of Wales, the UK and Europe.

- Enhancing the economy and providing good value for money (especially in terms of improving access to jobs and training).

- Enhancing Accessibility (especially between the Valleys and Cardiff and Newport).

Several related to encouraging rail use as an alternative to highways;

- To achieve a modal shift towards more sustainable forms of transport for moving both people and freight.

- Reducing Car Travel (especially in Cardiff and Newport). Others related to objectives related to the rail network and its development;

- To improve the quality, efficiency and reliability of the transport system. - Making Best Use of infrastructure. - Ensuring deliverability through robust planning.

These last three objectives encompass the objectives of the Government, Network Rail and the Train Operators and set within all rail policies and guidance. Additional objectives were invited from the workshop groups listed below in terms of the ‘top 3’ and other objectives for the strategy. The top 3 were;

- Need to consider the commuting trips to S West England. Better transport planning links with Sewta Rail Strategy with S West/Bristol strategies;

- To expand the reach of the railway network by developing east-west inter-valley links across the Sewta region and;

- Planning for future growth. Other additional objectives were;


- Increase the number of rail trips. - Need for better value for money in investments. - Need to look at specific types of journeys; not just commuting, 7 day

railway. - 24/7. - Alignment with the Swansea (SWWITCH) strategy and the NTP and LDPs

and Wales Spatial Plan. - Identify and develop rail feeder services to connect rail heads. - Extend passenger services on freight lines. - Support and continue partnership working. - Make better use of existing infrastructure. - Keeping cost comparative to other modes of travel. - Improving linkages to England and other parts of Wales. - To provide a normal daily service for Sunday service.

These objectives either add additional elements to the main objectives (such as improving connectivity) or indicate desired outcomes / processes to achieve the objectives including passenger aspirations for improved services at all times of the day. E1.2 Strategic Appraisal Framework To measure the contribution of rail strategy elements to the defined objectives, and to enable demonstration of the effectiveness of the rail strategy in achieving defined objectives, a Strategic Appraisal Framework has been developed. This framework needed to be practical in application and presentation, and embrace the Transport Planning objectives as well as WelTAG appraisal guidance. WelTAG defines the approach and details for development and appraisal of transport schemes in Wales starting from definition of the problem – through option assessment and scheme appraisal. The appraisal is presented in terms of;

- Economic Impacts; • Transport Economic Efficiency, and; • wider Economic Activity and Location Impacts.

- Environmental Impacts;

• Noise, Air Quality, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Landscape and Townscape, Biodiversity, Soil, Heritage, Water Environment.

- Social Impacts;

• Transport Safety; • Personal Security; • Permeability; • Physical Fitness; • Social Inclusion, and • Equality, Diversity and Human Rights.

- Other Appraisal Requirements;

• Health and Wellbeing, and; • Equality Impact Assessment.

Transport appraisal advice emphasises the economic objectives and Climate Change (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) as a separate heading from the other Environmental factors.


The scoring of scheme impacts against the defined criteria was based on a 7 point scale, and colour coded accordingly to aid interpretation;

- +3: Large Beneficial - +2: Moderate Beneficial - +1: Slight Beneficial - 0: Neutral - -1: Slight Adverse - -2: Moderate Adverse - -3: Severe Adverse

A qualitative assessment was undertaken – informed where appropriate by the technical assessments for new stations, new lines and service improvements and drawing on the results of the other studies of other schemes in the region. The results of the Strategic Appraisal are shown below.

ObjectivesClimate Change

Environmental Impacts

Sub Objectives C02Noise, LAQ, Landscape,

Schemes Valu

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New Stations on Existing LinesLlangynwyd -2 -2 +1 -1 +1 +1 -1 -1 0 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1 0 0

Bridgend College +1 -1 +2 -1 +1 0 +2 -1 +1 0 +2 +1 +3 +1 +1 -1 +1 +1 0

St Mellons +2 0 +2 -1 +1 0 +2 -1 +2 0 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 0 +1 0 -1

St Fagans +3 0 +2 0 +1 0 +3 -1 +2 0 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 0 +1 0 -1

Albany Road Cardiff 0 -3 +1 -2 +1 -2 +1 -1 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 -2 +1 -1 -1

Coedkernew +1 0 +2 -1 +1 0 +2 -1 +1 0 +2 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 +1 -1

Newport Maindee +1 -1 +1 -2 +1 0 +1 -1 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 -3

Ynysboeth / Tyntetown -2 -2 +1 -1 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 -1

Cwmbach North -2 -2 +1 -1 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 -2 +1 -1 -1

Glyncoch 0 -3 +1 -2 +1 +1 +2 -1 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 -2 +1 -2 -1

Upper Boat -2 -3 +1 -2 +1 +1 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 +1 +1 0 -2 -3 -1

Hopkinstown -2 -2 +1 0 +1 +1 -2 -1 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 -1

M4 Jn 34 +1 0 +2 -1 +1 0 +1 -2 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 0 +1 0 -2

St Athans +2 -1 +2 -1 +2 0 +2 +1 +2 0 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 0 +1 0 -1

New Lines / Services

Caerphilly - Machen - Newport -1 -1 +3 +3 +2 +3 +3 -2 +3 0 +3 +3 +3 +2 +1 +3 +2 +2 -1

Garw Valley -1 -2 +2 +1 +1 +2 +2 -2 +2 0 +2 +1 +2 +2 +1 +2 +2 +1 -1

Hirwaun - Aberdare +1 0 +3 0 +2 +2 +3 -2 +3 0 +2 +2 +3 +2 +1 +3 +2 +2 0

Beddau via Pontyclun -1 -2 +3 +3 +2 +2 +3 -2 +3 0 +3 +3 +3 +2 +1 +3 +3 +2 -1

Beddau via Fairwater -2 -1 +3 +3 +2 +2 +3 -3 +3 0 +3 +3 +3 +2 +1 +3 +3 +1 -2

Bedlinog - Ystrad Mynach +2 -1 +3 0 +1 +3 +3 -2 +3 0 +3 +3 +3 +2 +1 +3 +2 +2 0

Improved Services

Maesteg Sundays +3 0 +2 +1 +1 +3 +2 0 +2 0 +3 +2 +3 +2 +1 +2 +1 +3 +2

Rhymney Evenings +3 0 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2

Cardiff – Bristol 3 tph +3 -2 +2 +2 +2 0 +3 0 +2 0 +3 +2 +2 +1 +1 +3 +2 +2 -1

City Line evenings 0 0 +1 0 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

City Line mornings +2 0 +1 0 +1 0 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Rhymney Sundays +3 0 +1 +1 0 +2 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Merthyr Tydfil Sundays +3 0 +1 +1 0 +2 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Aberdare Sundays +3 0 +1 +1 0 +2 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Treherbert Sundays +3 0 +1 +1 0 +2 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Chepstow Sundays +3 0 +1 +1 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Merthyr mornings +3 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Aberdare mornings +3 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Maesteg mornings +3 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Ebbw Vale mornings +3 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Queen St - Caerphilly / Pontypridd +2 +3 0 +2 0 +1 +1 +2 +2 +1 +3 +3 0 -1

Ebbw Valley #2 +2 -1 +2 +2 +2 -1 +2 0 +2 +1 +3 +2 +1 +3 +3 +1 -1

Ebbw Valley #3 +1 0 +3 +3 +3 -2 +3 0 +3 +1 +3 +2 +1 +3 +3 +2 -1

Mod

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Social Impacts Other Objectives

Sewta Rail Strategy Review and Roll Forward Study - Strategic Appraisal Framework

Economic Activity and Location ImpactsTransport Economic

Economic Impacts

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The result of the strategic appraisal was that poor performing new station and service improvement options were removed from the Rail Strategy, as they provided little contribution to the strategic objectives. The schemes providing the highest contribution to the Strategic Objectives were the new lines and services and some of the service improvements. In sifting new lines to be taken forward the Caerphilly – Machen – Newport scheme was retained, even though it had low VfM, due to the relatively high contribution to other objectives. Similarly, the Beddau via Pontyclun and Beddau via Fairwater options were retained due to the contribution to regional objectives. The Bedlinog Line was retained with good VfM and contribution to other factors. The Garw Valley line was not selected to be taken forward due to the poor VfM and relatively poor contribution to regional objectives. E2 Summary of Detailed Scheme Appraisals The appraisal of the value for money of rail scheme options takes account of the benefits (increased passenger demand and revenues and user and non-user benefits) against the costs (operating and capital costs). E2.1 Demand and Revenue Forecasts Demand and revenue forecasting employed three models;

- The rail industry (MOIRA) model to estimate the change for existing passengers (both positive and negative);

- The Sewta Trip Rate Model to estimate new rail demand where there are

no existing passengers;

- National Rail Travel Survey data analysis (NRTS) to estimate passenger abstraction impacts.

The models were applied as appropriate to the schemes being considered specifically;

- Incremental Service Options – MOIRA model only.

- New Stations on Existing Lines – Trip Rate Model for new rail demand, MOIRA for impact of slowing services for existing passengers and NRTS for abstraction.

- New Lines and Services – MOIRA for the service increase at existing

stations and the Trip Rate Model for the new stations. The MOIRA model was provided by Arriva Trains Wales. It applies an industry accepted elasticity of demand to journey time change to forecast the impact in terms of passenger demand, revenues, journey miles change and user benefits / dis-benefits.


The Sewta Rail Strategy Study trip rate model was calibrated in 2005 based on the rail demand for each station in the Sewta area and the catchment characteristics for each existing station. The model focuses on demands to and from Cardiff and Newport and factors are employed to forecast all rail demand based on the ticket sales data. The models contain factors based on the catchment population, generalised travel time (based on journey time and fares), park and ride provision, bus service frequency, Head of Valley station factor and some individual line factors. The catchment areas of the new stations tested were defined in Mapinfo (GIS system) taking account of overlapping catchments with existing and other new stations. Figure 28 shows an example based on Bridgend College south of Bridgend. Figure 28 Example New Station Catchments Definition The 2001 census population figure for each catchment area was calculated for 0 – 800m and 0 – 2km catchments. Fares to Cardiff and Newport were derived from the existing fares in the vicinity and the journey times similarly estimated. The trip rate model was applied using assumptions regarding the service frequency and application of an average fare per journey based on a shadow station or average for a group of stations. For each station a demand range was produce through application of an average uplift factor (from Cardiff / Newport trips to all trips) and an uplift factor based on shadow stations. The Sewta Local Planning Authorities provided further information for input to the demand and revenue assumptions including housing completions since 2001 within the catchments, further planned housing and other developments. The housing numbers were converted to additional population assuming an average of 2.4 people her household. Planned office development in the vicinity of stations was converted to additional passengers assuming 4000sqm of office space per hectare of development, 1 job per 20 sqm, 1% rail mode share and 250 working days per annum. (a) New Sunday Services Factors For the introduction of new Sunday services the impact at stations not currently served was based on factors between Saturday and Sunday flows and revenues for stations on the Rhymney and Treherbert Lines. For the Vale of Glamorgan Line service options adjustments were made to take account of the under-forecasting of the MOIRA model due to the fares difference between journeys to Bridgend and Llantwit Major through comparison of the Moira Line forecasts compared with ATW counts.


(b) Specific New Station Assumptions For the appraisal of value for money some specific further demands were assessed for specific stations; St Fagans Station would serve the Welsh National History Museum. The Cardiff Visitor Survey 2010 reported that 27% of St Fagans visitors are first time visitors and 73% are repeat visitors. The surveys (which did not include those who live or were working in Cardiff on the day) reported that 50% of visitors are on a day trip from home, 33% on holiday, 15% on a short break and 1% on business. The visitor data also reported that the method of transport used to access visitor sites in the City was 5% train and 18% bus. A rail mode share of 5% was applied to the 628,315 annual visitors (2010). At St Athan a major development is proposed expected to lead to a new increase of around 5,000 additional jobs on two sites, the Defence Training Centre and Aerospace Business Park. However, the largest part of the development area lies beyond 1km of the possible station site. The smaller Aerospace Business Park is expected to have a rail mode split of 1% and 1,274 weekday arrivals. At M4 Junction 34 there is little development around the station site but excellent highway access. The station would provide park and ride opportunities for Cardiff (and London). At this stage data on the numbers of cars destined for Cardiff City Centre has not been made available on which to base a forecast. A sensitivity test on the required number of park and ride trips was undertaken. (c) New Station Abstraction Assumptions The demand and revenue forecasts take account of the abstraction of existing passengers from adjacent station. The assumptions are shown in Table 7-H and are based on previous reports or observed overlap of catchment areas;

Station Abstraction Assumption St Mellons No catchment overlap St Fagans Little catchment overlap Albany Rd / Crwys Rd Cardiff 8% of Cathays based on NRTS and Moira

data analysis Coedkernew No catchment overlap Upper Boat From 2006 report M4 JN 34 Limited catchment overlap Ebbw Vale Town 90% of Ebbw Vale Parkway Pye Corner From Ebbw Vale Future Options Report Crumlin From Ebbw Vale Future Options Report Abertillery From Ebbw Vale Future Options Report Caerleon Abergavenny Line Report Llanwern Chepstow Line Report Hirwaun / Trecynon From 2006 report Beddau via Pontyclun (Talbot Green) From 2006 report Beddau via Creigiau (Fairwater West) 30% of Fairwater Bedlinog Line (Nelson) From 2006 report

Caerphilly – Newport (Caerphilly East + Bassaleg) No improvement to Cardiff journeys.

Table 7-H New Stations Abstraction Assumptions


(d) Beddau Line Revised Demand and Revenue Forecasts A key issue for the Beddau Line options related to the application of the Terminus Station / Heads of the Valleys factor within the trip rate model. Figure 29 shows the results of assessment of the NRTS data for the stations in the vicinity of the line showing that there are 2 areas of the region which could be classed as possible areas within the wider catchment of the lines:

- Church Village – existing rail trips are attracted to Trefforest Station which will remain more attractive than the Beddau Line as it has a high service frequency.

- Tonyrefrail and surrounding communities – the relative isolation of this area

results in few rail trips, however, rather than being within the catchment of Beddau the existing highway network suggests that this area extends the catchment of Llantrisant station.

Figure 29 Journey Origins of Users of Stations in the Beddau Area A further concern related to the scale of the wider catchment of the line and potential to generate as much additional demand for the new stations on the Beddau line. Figure 30 shows the NRTS data for the existing heads of the Valleys Stations. The trip rate model is largely reliant on the catchment population within 800m of the station. The Head of Valleys stations clearly have significant passenger origins outside the immediate catchment area.


Figure 30 Origins of Users of Existing Heads of the Valleys Stations To quantify the relative attractiveness of the defined wider catchment of Llantrisant census population and journey to work data for people working in Cardiff City Centre was assessed for each catchment area. The results, shown in Table 7-I, show a significant range within both the size of the catchments for the existing head of valley stations and in terms of the numbers of commuters. Llantrisant however has similar figures to Aberdare which lies within the range of the data. Being closer to Cardiff there is likely to be a higher proportion of residents working in Cardiff who would be attracted to use the new stations and rail service. There is therefore justification in retaining the head of valley / terminus station factor for the line but application to Llantrisant station instead of Beddau station.

Location Aberdare Merthyr Tydfil Rhymney Llantrisant Population 17,505 31,049 15,057 14,034 Population working in Cardiff City Centre

289 420 75 273

Table 7-I Heads of Valleys Wider Catchment Census Data Analysis

(e) Bedlinog Service Assumptions The Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal project will increase line / platform capacity between Cogan and Cardiff Queen Street to resolve passenger capacity issues by introducing new peak period short services between Barry and Caerphilly and Pontypridd. This means that, at least in the peak periods, a Bedlinog – Cardiff service would be an extension of the local Caerphilly service. This has an impact on the operating costs, incremental demand, revenue and benefits for the scheme which were adjusted accordingly through the application of the operating costs and MOIRA model.


(f) Ebbw Vale – Newport Assumptions In the 2013 study the new MOIRA model was applied to various options for the Ebbw Vale Line, as the new service demands were available. The MOIRA model was considered suitable for the forecasting of long distance flows but not for forecasting new demands from stations in the valley to Newport, as this change in generalised time is substantial. The MOIRA forecast was compared with the Sewta Trip Rate Model which was calibrated for both Cardiff and Newport flows. Within the Newport flows model a direct service to Newport is a key parameter which was applied. The Moira flows from local stations were replaced with the Trip Rate Model Flows. (g) Electrification Factors The service improvements and new service options recommended in the 2011 study were assessed assuming introduction after the electrification of the lines. Electrification demand and revenue uplift factors were derived by line from the Valley Lines Business Case Appendices;

- 9% Vale of Glamorgan Line - 7% - Merthyr Tydfil Line - 6% - Aberdare Line - 5% - Rhymney Line - 4% - Maesteg Line, Treherbert Line, Ebbw Vale Line - 1% - City Line

E2.2 User Benefits The MOIRA model forecasts the dis-benefits for existing rail users caused by slowing down the current journey times for through passengers. It also forecasts the benefits for existing passengers resulting from frequency increases and journey time reductions. User benefits for new rail passengers using the new stations were assumed to be 12 minutes per single journey on average (based on values derived as part of more detailed appraisals of new stations e.g. at Energlyn and Brackla). E2.3 Non User Benefits The non-user benefits have been assessed using the DfT Guidance on Rail Appraisal: External Costs of Car Use and associated spreadsheets. This procedure produced recommended values for congestion, infrastructure, accident, local air quality and greenhouse gases benefits resulting from the assumed transfer of trips from car for 2010 and 2025. The appraisal assumes car transfers of 33% of new rail demand and a car occupancy factor of 1.2 to derive the net change in car kms. The forecast of new rail miles was based on the MOIRA model outputs for existing users and an appropriate assumption of miles per journey for trips generated by new stations based on distance from Cardiff. The rates used and values derived for the external impacts uses the weighted average congestion rates for Welsh roads by time period.


The transfer of journeys from the private car to rail results in a loss of government revenue as a result of the reduction in fuel sales and the resulting reduction in fuel tax income. For this appraisal the value of this factor was estimated using the DfT Guidance on Rail Appraisal: External Costs of Car Use. E2.4 Operating Costs Operating costs for service improvement and new service options were forecast using the Operating Cost model calibrated in the 2010 study. This was adjusted for electrification with assumptions within the model taken from the Valley Lines Business Case reports and appropriate additional assumptions made where necessary. The detail of the model is commercially confidential. The Elements of the operating costs that reduce as a result of electrification are; • Rolling Stock Costs. • Maintenance – 20% reduction compared to existing 3-car stock as per Valley

Lines Electrification Report. • Fuel. • Regenerative braking adjustment – 20% saving as per Valley Lines

Electrification Report. • Fleet Availability – As per Valley Lines Electrification Report (91% compared

to base of 80%). The elements of the operating costs that do not change are; • Track Access Charges • Staff Charges • Marginal station running costs • Retail commission • Income related over heads • Traincrew mgmt & HQ overheads

The model was tested for a notional additional unit and compared with the 2010 model for the diesel service which revealed that, on a like-for-like basis, electrification brings a operating cost saving of around 43%. The impact of electrification on the operating costs of the Sewta Rail Strategy elements is shown in Tables 7-J and 7-K for the incremental service options and new lines / services, respectively. Whilst in most cases there are forecast operating cost reductions the change is not as great as indicated for the nominal additional unit as the assumed rolling stock has, in most cases, changed from a 2-car Class 150 ‘Sprinter’ to the 3-car EMU. In a small number of cases the operating costs have not changed significantly or have actually increased. The results for the Abergavenny and Chepstow lines are not currently relevant as those lines are not planned to be electrified in the first phases of electrification in the region. The majority of new line / service options have slightly lower operating costs as a result of electrification.


Option % Difference Cardiff – Bristol 3 tph (M-S) -9% Maesteg mornings (one earlier) (M-S) -14% Maesteg Sundays (2-hourly 0900 - 1900) -14% Chepstow Sundays (1 earlier 2 hrs before) -13% City Line evenings (extend service 1 hr) -10% City Line mornings (extend service 1 hr) -10% Rhymney Evenings (add’l hrly to Bargoed) -11% Rhymney Sundays (from 0.5 to 1.0 tph) -10% Merthyr Tyd’l Sundays (from 0.5 to 1 tph) -10% Aberdare Sunday (from 0.5 to 1.0 tph) -10% Treherbert Sundays (from 0.5 to 1 tph) -10% Merthyr mornings (one earlier train) -12% Aberdare Mornings (one earlier train) -11% Ebbw Vale mornings (one earlier train) -14% VoG new hourly service (Cardiff – Bridgend) -38% VoG extended Barry Service (net) -46% Cardiff - Chepstow (M-S)# -5% Cardiff – Chepstow (Sun)# 1% Cardiff – Abergavenny (M-S)# -6% Cardiff – Abergavenny (Sun)# 1% City Line Sundays -7%

Table 7-J Electrification impact on the Operating Cost Estimates Incremental Service Improvements

# Note: These lines are not planned for Electrification at present

Option % Difference Caerphilly – Newport

Hourly Caerphilly – Newport Direct (M-S) -5% Half Hourly Caerphilly – Newport (M-S) -6% Hourly Caerphilly – Newport Direct (Sun) -12% Half Hourly Caerphilly – Newport (Sun) -12% Bedlinog New Hourly Cardiff – Bedlinog (M-S) -3% Half Hourly Cardiff – Bedlinog (M-S) -5% Hourly Cardiff – Bedlinog (Sun) -7% Half Hourly Cardiff – Bedlinog (Sun) -10%

Bedlinog Extension

Peak Hourly from Caerphilly(M-S) -1% Interpeak hourly from Caerphilly (M-S) -11% Peak half-hourly from Caerphilly (M-S) -1% Interpeak Half-hourly from Cardiff (M-S) -11% Hirwaun Half-hourly extension only (M-S) -3% Half hourly extension only (Sun) -6%


Beddau via Pontyclun Hourly Cardiff via Pontyclun (M-S) -4% Half Hourly Cardiff via Pontyclun (M-S) -5% Hourly Cardiff via Pontyclun (Sun) -9% Half Hourly Cardiff via Pontyclun (Sun) -9% Pontyclun – Beddau Shuttle Hourly Shuttle (M-S) 0% Half hourly shuttle (M-S) -3% Hourly shuttle (Sun) -4% Half hourly shuttle (Sun) -6% Beddau via Creigiau Hourly (M-S) -2% Half Hourly (M-S) -4% Hourly (Sun) -8% Half hourly (Sun) -9% Ebbw Vale Line Ebbw Vale Town Extension -10% Ebbw Valley Additional Train -8%

Table 7-K Electrification Impact on Operating Cost Estimates; New Service Options#

# note: new services on Abergavenny and Chepstow Lines would be diesel trains. E2.3 Economic Appraisal Results (a) Cost / Benefit Analysis Assumptions The economic appraisal has been undertaken in accordance with the Guidance on Rail Appraisal. Key assumptions were;

- 2010 price base and 2010 prices, inflating values using RPI factors;

- Trip rate model demands (2005) were inflated to 2010 using a factor of 24.6 based on observed growth;

- For consistency and comparison across schemes, all schemes are

assumed to be constructed between 2013 and 2015, with the spend proportioned as 10% in 2013, 35% in 2014 and 55% in 2015;

- Costs and Benefits are discounted over 60 years of operation from 2015 to

a 2010 base assuming a discount rate of 3.5% for 30 years and 3.0% for the remaining years;

- Application of Valley Lines Electrification Market Assessment demand

growth of 4.1% per annum to 2021 and 2.1% per annum between 2022 and 2032 where the demand is capped in accordance with latest rail appraisal guidance;

- Assuming value of time growth in accordance with appraisal guidance

(WebTAG Unit 3.5.6, August 2012);


- Interpolation of the growth in external costs of car use (non-user benefits) between the forecasts for 2010 and 2025 with only rail passenger and value of time growth thereafter;

- Application of the revised market price adjustment factor of 19% to the

Capital Costs, Operating Costs and Revenues, and to User Benefits (assuming 5% of business trips), and;

- The appraisal takes account of the planned growth in rail fares of RPI +1%.

A revenue elasticity of 0.4 is applied to the fares increase to determine revenue growth.

(b) Incremental Service Options Results An up-to-date MOIRA model was secured from Arriva Trains Wales and applied to the short-listed schemes to forecast increased demand and revenue. Electrification uplift factors were applied by line and growth was obtained from the new market appraisal. The affordability of the service improvement options and value for money are shown in Table 7-L. All require additional subsidy, though the subsidy levels and subsidies per passenger are relatively low for some options (Chepstow Sundays, City Line Sundays and Maesteg Line Sundays options). In almost all cases the business case for the incremental service improvements are improved post electrification. These options are considered quick wins as (except for the VoG half hourly options) they can be delivered using the existing rolling stock. There are wider economic benefits of the options through improving access to employment, shopping and other activities.

Scheme Subsidy Per annum

(£k)

Subsidy per Passenger (£)

Previous BCR

New BCR

Maesteg Sundays £113.1 £3.13 19.1 24.8 Rhymney Evenings £315.0 £9.69 1.3 1.9 Cardiff – Bristol 3 tph £1,953.3 £15.32 1.3 2.0 Coryton / City Line mornings £97.5 £23.31 1.0 1.0 Rhymney Sundays £129.6 £4.36 5.0 12.3 Merthyr Tydfil Sundays £174.1 £11.62 2.2 3.2 Aberdare Sundays £155.3 £7.81 2.2 4.9 Treherbert Sundays £153.3 £6.67 3.1 6.1 Chepstow Sundays £8.6 £3.12 15.4 40.0 Merthyr mornings £83.1 £12.51 1.2 2.0 Aberdare mornings £72.6 £6.51 1.6 3.7 Maesteg mornings £89.9 £37.92 0.7 0.8 Ebbw Vale mornings £85.5 £20.90 1.1 1.8 Coryton / City Line Sundays £36.3 £0.86 100+ 100+ VoG Half Hourly – Bridgend – Cardiff

£2,256.7 £21.37 0.6 1.1#

VoG Half Hourly – Diversion of Barry Island

£933.7 £21.38 0.5 1.2#

Table 7-L Summary results Service Improvement Options

# Does not include crowding benefits


(c) New Lines / Services Results The new MOIRA model was applied to the new line options and demands increased by the electrification factors by line. The appraisal spreadsheet was updated to reflect changes in WebTAG guidance and re-applied to the scheme options. For consistency between scheme appraisals the appraisal model was also applied to the new stations / service options studied previously and reported in 2011 – specifically on the Chepstow and Abergavenny Lines and also to the options for additional services on the Ebbw Vale Line. For each option the new stations proposed are; • Hirwaun – Aberdare Option; Hirwaun, Trecynon • Ebbw Valley Option; Ebbw Vale Town, Abertillery • Bedlinog Options; Nelson, Trelewis, Bedlinog • Abergavenny Options; Caerleon • Chepstow Options; Llanwern • Beddau via Pontyclun Option; St Fagans, Talbot Green, Llantrisant, Gwaun

Miesgyn, Beddau • Beddau via Fairwater Option; Fairwater West, Creigiau, Llantrisant Road,

Gwaun Miesgyn, Beddau • Caerphilly – Newport Option; Caerphilly East, Bedwas, Machen, Bassaleg Table 7-M shows the subsidy per passenger and change in Benefit Cost Ratio for the schemes assuming introduction after electrification. The table excludes the committed frequency improvement and new station schemes for the Rhymney Line (plus Energlyn Station) and Maesteg Line (plus Brackla Station) which were previously reported to have BCR’s of 3.3 and 2.5 respectively.

Scheme / Frequency Subsidy per Passenger

Journey (£k)

Previous BCR

New BCR

Hirwaun – Aberdare (Cardiff) Half Hourly + Trecynon Stn £0.65 1.2 3.2 Ebbw Vale Town extension £0 - 1.9 Ebbw Vale Town + EVT – Newport hourly + 2 Stns £2.73 2.1 4.8 Bedlinog – Caerphilly / Cardiff Hourly £2.45 1.6 4.6 Abergavenny – Cardiff 2tph + Caerleon (2) £32.48 1.5 1.7 Chepstow – Cardiff + 1tph + Llanwern Stn (1) £8.08 1.6 2.7 Abertillery – Cardiff 1tph £1.76 1.7 4.5 Beddau – Cardiff via Pontyclun hourly £0 2.7 4.8 Beddau – Cardiff via Fairwater hourly £0.31 1.4 2.6 Caerphilly – Newport Hourly £0.74 0.5 0.5

Table 7-M Subsidy 2015/16 and Value for Money; New Line / Service Options

Notes: (1) Excludes new stations between Cardiff and Newport

Almost all options require a subsidy but the subsidies per passenger tend to be low as the new stations generate significant additional passenger journeys.


The Abergavenny and Chepstow schemes involve additional services and have few new stations resulting in significant subsidies compared to the new passengers generated. Those schemes need to be investigated with the possible new stations at St Mellons and Coedkernew on the SWML between Cardiff and Newport. Those options would form part of the M4 Corridor Strategy maximising the potential for rail to reduce traffic on the M4. To date there has not been an appraisal with the services integrated and all new stations included. Note that if Pye Corner Station is built before the Ebbw Vale – Newport package is implemented the BCR falls to 3.4. In addition, earlier development of Ebbw Vale Town Station would reduce the BCR for the additional service further. It can be concluded that most schemes are high value for money or very high value for money (BCR of 2.0 / 3.0 or above). Some are moderate value for money (1.5 – 2.0) but would produce significant wider economic benefits. In addition, addition of further new stations to some options is likely to improve the business cases as relatively small injection of capital costs would lead to significant additional passenger journeys and revenues, subject to revised timetable impacts. E3 Conclusions E3.1 Incremental Service Improvements These are considered quick wins as, subject to affordability, they have good business cases and are deliverable using existing rolling stock. There is a very strong business case for improving the Sunday service on the Chepstow Line and very strong business cases for introducing new Sunday services on the Coryton / City Line and Maesteg Line. These services will significantly improve accessibility for those without access to private transport and support the developing Sunday economy. There is a good business case for improving the Sunday services on the Rhymney, Methyr Tydfil, Aberdare and Treherbert Lines. There is a reasonably good case for improving the early morning services on the Merthyr Tydfil, Aberdare, Maesteg and Ebbw Vale Lines to improve access to jobs over a wider area. These changes would improve the local economy as well as reducing the need to drive to Cardiff and Newport stations. There is also a good case for improving the evening service on the Rhymney Line. This is considered poor in relation to the peak / daytime frequency and would support the evening economy. It is understood that the desired three trains per hour between Cardiff and Bristol forms the basis of the Electrification business case and will be secured around 2020.


E3.2 New Stations on Existing Lines Combining the conclusions from the 2011 report and findings of the 2013 studies, the following new stations are recommended (shown in Alphabetical order). Albany Road / Crwys Road Cardiff; This station would have a significant catchment though stopping existing trains at the station would produce substantial dis-benefits to through passengers on the Coryton and Rhymney lines. The business case is also sensitive to the potential for abstraction of passengers from Cathays Station. However, there appears to be a business case for the scheme subject to provision of additional peak period capacity. This scheme could therefore be considered alongside service capacity improvements. Bridgend College; There is a financial business case for the station in terms of new revenues covering new station operating costs, but there is a weak economic case. There is an aspiration to increase the service frequency to half hourly which improves the business case (assuming no increase in disbenefits). However, the appraisal does not take account of trips to / from the college itself which need to be considered if the scheme is taken forward with the service level increase. Coedkernew; The business case for this station is relatively weak at low service frequencies but positive assuming 4 trains per hour. This relies on significantly more additional local services and it should therefore be taken forward in that context. The business case assumes some additional housing in the vicinity of the station but no reverse trips. Crumlin: A reasonable business case taking into account abstraction and contributing significantly to the business case for an additional service between Ebbw Vale and Newport. Ebbw Vale Town: extending the Cardiff – Ebbw Vale Parkway service to Ebbw Vale Town was determined as affordable (covering incremental operating costs) and reasonable value for money. M4 Jn 34; There is relatively little population or employment in the vicinity of this station and to produce a positive business case the station would need to attract around 125,000 passengers per annum from the strategic park and ride site. This would equate to 500 cars per day. This would be more likely with a higher level of service and the station should therefore be considered in the context of providing additional local services. Pye Corner; A potential quick win having a good business case for introduction within the existing Cardiff – Ebbw Vale service. St Athan; Stopping at this station impacts on a relatively small number of through passengers and the revenues generated more than cover the incremental operating and maintenance costs, creating a financial case for the station. However, the economic case based on the existing hourly service is relatively weak as a result of the passenger disbenefits of slowing the service down. There is an improved but weak economic case when the frequency is increased to half hourly.


St Fagans; This station is forecast to generate significant new patronage – offsetting disbenefits of slowing down local services and resulting in a positive business case especially if two trains per hour call. It can be seen to be of strategic importance – providing access to the National History Museum / Museum of Welsh Life. However, the difficulty for this station relates to the practicality of stopping local service between Cardiff and Bridgend in the short term, due to capacity problems. Increasing the Maesteg service to half hourly and / or introducing a new service to Beddau provides the opportunity to provide a local service to the station – subject to main line capacity. It would also be possible to introduce the station at electrification with the impact relating to performance benefits. St Mellons; The station could be introduced on new local services only (such as improved Chepstow and Abergavenny Line services) and Ebbw Valley services, minimising dis-benefits. It is recommended that this station is taken forward with service improvements. Upper Boat; Although this station would have a significant catchment, stopping existing trains at the station would produce substantial dis-benefits to through passengers on the Valley Lines to the north and it would abstract passengers from nearby stations. The scheme could provide additional park and ride capacity in a section of the network where parking capacity at stations is an issue. The scheme could only be taken forward in a scenario where less existing passenger are affected – such as provision of additional local services between Pontypridd and Cardiff after the Cardiff Area Signalling Renewal scheme including Queen Street – Cogan enhancement. E3.3 New Lines / Services There are strong business cases for the Rhymney and Maesteg frequency improvement and new stations schemes which are within the National Transport Plan and well developed for implementation subject to funding. There is also a strong business case for the development of a service to Beddau via Pontyclun so long as the level crossing issues can be overcome. The business case for a service via Pontyclun is expected to be greater than the alternative via Creigiau which has significantly higher costs. The route via Pontyclun can also support a new station at St Fagans. For the alternative route to Llantrisant / Beddau via Creigiau to be supported the authorities of Cardiff City and Rhondda Cynon Taf Council would need to concentrate future development along the corridor in a coordinated plan. There is a strong business case for the Ebbw Vale phase 2 project, a decision upon this remains with the Welsh Government. There is a strong business case for the Cardiff – Bedlinog service post electrification assuming extension of the Cardiff – Caerphilly peak local trains, to be introduced after CASR, plus additional Cardiff – Bedlinog interpeak services using the local service paths. There is a strong business case for a further Ebbw Vale line service between Cardiff and Abertillery. The business case is significantly improved by electrification of the line.


Electrification also significantly improves the business case for the Hirwaun option, extending the half-hourly Cardiff – Aberdare service. The business case is also stronger with a new station at Trecynon. The scheme provides improved accessibility to a key Heads of Valleys location and a key ‘Strategic Opportunity Area’ identified within the Wales Spatial Plan. There is also a strong business case for a service improvement on the Cardiff - Chepstow Line. The scheme needs to be assessed with further new stations at St Mellons and Coedkernew. Those plus Llanwern are subject to further development / redevelopment which needs to be integrated with access improvements. There is a moderate business case for a service improvement on the Cardiff - Abergavenny Line (with BCR between 1.5 and 2.0). The business case could be improved with further new stations between Cardiff and Newport and possible integration with the Chepstow service and / or longer term electrification of the Marches Line. Increasing the Vale of Glamorgan service to half hourly with or without a new station at Bridgend College is worthy of further study, taking into account that the current service is capacity constrained in the peaks and the fare difference between Bridgend and Llantwit Major, as well as presenting difficulties in the appraisal, may also be hindering rail use. In taking the scheme forward the potential demand for student trips to Bridgend College and the appraisal assumptions will need to be examined in more detail. In the short term resolving the capacity issues will be important. The business case for the Caerphilly – Newport via Machen is relatively weak. The service requires turn-back facilities at both termini. The Caerphilly turn-back will be provided within CASR works and the Newport facility is likely to be provided for the planned hourly Ebbw Vale – Newport service, suggesting programming behind that scheme. The service could provide important benefits in terms of regional connectivity and in reducing traffic on the M4. It is therefore recommended that additional work is undertaken to optimise the business case for the scheme or part of it and to assess the benefits of phasing the scheme over the strategy period. The authorities of Caerphilly Council and Newport City may need to concentrate future development along the corridor in a coordinated plan.

Strategic Planning

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