A pressing question for new businesses: How long will it take for the idea to catch on?

A puzzle: Why is it that some great ideas take forever to take root, while others flourish fast?

?

The Indus Valley cities of Harappa and Mohenjo-daro, built around 2500 BC, had the world’s first indoor plumbing systems. Yet this exceptionally good idea did not take off until the middle of the nineteenth century.

In contrast, radio rapidly expanded during the 1920s.

The first American commercial broadcast occurred in 1920, there were 600 radio stations by 1922, and by 1930 60% of U.S. families owned a radio.

Physical infrastructure

If an innovation relies upon others laying the groundwork, a firm

might wait a long time for change to happen.

Business infrastructure

Groundwork can be economic as well as physical.

Few Decision Makers

World War II Rear AdmiralRobert Copeland once said,

“To get something donea committee should consist of

no more than three people,two of whom are absent.”

Depth of Need andRelative Performance

To get noticed, a new offering has to truly excel over competitors on at least some important criteria.

Behavior Change

Behavior change can be vital for new markets to emerge, and it is

very difficult to rush.

Speedy Sales and Use Cycle

Often customers cannot be convinced by marketing materials—they need to see the innovation

in action.

Low Switching Cost

Switching costs make it more difficult for potential adopters of

an innovation to sign on.

Low Risk of Failure

Risks make potential customers want to see others adopting the innovation first, lengthening the

overall penetration process.

What does the framework say about adoption rates for indoor plumbing vs. radio?

Indoor plumbing faced huge obstacles, despite the need for it. It required infrastructure, consensus, big long-term investments, and no malfunctions. Radio could avoid these issues.

What does the framework say about electric vehicles?

(Note: Vehicle to Grid is the concept of car batteries providing excess power to electric utilities during times of peak demand)

We should expect healthy sales for plug-in hybrids, modest adoption of all-electric vehicles mainly by a small customer segment motivated to be as green as possible, and slow roll-out of vehicle-to-grid systems.

New markets have powered the greatest business successes in history, from Standard Oil to Facebook. 

Capturing New Markets reveals the patterns driving successful efforts to create markets, by big companies and entrepreneurs. From Roman Egypt to the iPad, it draws lessons from more than 150 examples to chart what works in new markets, and what practical steps companies can take to win.

Capturing New Markets is available now.