captain john m. cox, fraes ceo safety operating systems 1 “loss of control, avoidance, recognition...
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Captain John M. Cox, FRAeSCEO
Safety Operating Systems
“Loss of Control, Avoidance, Recognition and Recovery”
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Fatalities 2000-09
Flight International
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Fatalities Per Million Departures
1990-94: 1.32 serious accidents/million deps. 1995-99: 1.06
2000-04: 0.58
2005-09: 0.55
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Rate of Fatal Accidents
1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-090
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.41.32
1.06
0.580000000000001
0.55
Rate of Fatal Accidents
Rate per million de-partures
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CAST/ICAO Accident Taxonomy
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CFIT Decreasing
• 1997 – 2006 – 20 of 89 accidents CFIT or 22.5%
• 1998 – 2007 – 18 of 90 accidents CFIT or 20%
• 1999 – 2008 – 17 of 91accidents CFIT or 18.7%
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Loss Of Control Continues As The Number 1 Cause Of Accidents
• 1997 - 2006 – 19 of 89 accidents LOC-I or 21.3%
• 1998 - 2007 – 22 of 90 accidents LOC-I or 24.4%
• 1999 - 2008 – 22 of 91 accidents LOC-I or 24.2%
• Trend is not improving
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CFIT vs. LOC-I
Commercial Jet Fleet1997-2006 1998-2007 1999-20080
5
10
15
20
25
CFIT vs. LOC-I
CFITLOC-I
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CFIT vs. LOC-I
Commercial Jet Fleet
1997-2006 1998-2007 1999-20080%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
21%
22%
24%
23%
20%19%
CFIT vs. LOC-I
LOC-ICFIT
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Results of Business Jet Data Review
• 35 accidents
• 14 would have been helped with Upset Training
• 6 might have been helped with Upset Training
• Avoidance – Recognition - Recovery
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Breakdown of LOC-I Training NeedLOC-I Accidents
Training would not help
Avoidance and Recognition
Recovery
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Threat
• Stall is leading cause of LOC-I – NTSB Study 20 LOC-I accidents 1986-1996
• Veillette Aviation Week May 2009– 29 LOC-I accidents• 13 of 29 on takeoff – usually not recoverable• 16 approach and landing
– 6 circling approach
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Loss Of Control AccidentCauses
Upset Recovery Training Aid rev1
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Critical Skills
Avoidance!
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Critical Skills
• Recognition– What is happening?– Am I stalled? – Avoidance of upset
• Recovery– Before the upset• Stall
– After the upset• Stall
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Colgan 3407
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Colgan 3407 – NTSB DFDR Plots
Angle of Attack
Control Column
Pitch
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Roll
Control Wheel
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LOC-I C-5 Near Loss
This is the most terrifying video I have seen
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Upset Recovery Training
History • Causes • Solutions
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Baseline Knowledge
Pilots today are not aerodynamicists
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Baseline Knowledge
• Past assumptions were WRONG• Many pilot do not know needed aerodynamics• Most have not seen a transport fully stalled
• Simulators do not accurately replicate this portion of the envelope
• Power out recovery techniques may not work• High altitude• High drag
– Full stall
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Angle Of Attack
Angle of attack (AOA, α, Greek letter alpha)is a term used in aerodynamics to describe the angle between the chord line of an airfoil and the vector representing the relative motion between the airfoil and the air. It can be described as the angle between where the chord line of the airfoil is pointing and where the airfoil is going.
Wikipedia
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Basic Aerodynamics
Aerodynamics for Naval Aviators
Wild ride
DifferentWingsDifferentStall Characteristics
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Basic Aerodynamics
Lift
Drag
Aerodynamics for Naval Aviators
How many pilots really understand this?
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Basic Aerodynamics
Aerodynamics for Naval Aviators
Thrust available
vs.
Altitude
At 40,000 feetonly 30% thrust is available
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Basic Aerodynamics
• As coefficient of lift increases so does drag
• There is high drag coefficient at critical angle of attack – stall
• Powering out of a stall may not be an option
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Basic Aerodynamics
• At stall there is high drag – wing and fuselage
• At cruise altitude there is limited thrust available
• Recovery at cruise altitude is different than at 10,000 feet
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Stall Characteristics
• Jets are unstable when stalled• Jets will roll when stalled• Ailerons are not effective when stalled• Angle of Attack must be reduced to regain
control
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It May NOT Be Possible to Power Out Of A Stall At Cruise
Altitude
• Reduce Angle of Attack
• Accelerate
• Recover to NORMAL flight–Monitor “G” loading in recovery
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New Stall Procedure
• Airbus and Boeing have recently changed stall recovery procedure– Reduce angle of attack – Nose down– Wings level– Thrust Increase– Speed brakes retracted– Return to normal flight
There will be some altitude loss
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Power vs. Pitch
Courtesy of Captain Dave Carbaugh
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CAA UK 3 The standard stall recovery technique should therefore always emphasise the requirement to reduce the angle of
attack so as to ensure the prompt return of the wing to full controllability. The reduction in angle of attack (and
consequential height loss) will be minimal when the approach to the stall is recognised early, and the correct recovery action
is initiated without delay.
NOTE: Any manufacturer’s recommended stall recovery techniques must always be followed, and will take
precedence over the technique described above should there be any conflicting advice.
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Zero Altitude Loss Stall TrainingPower Out Only
IS NOT THE RIGHT WAY
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Wait a Minute! What if I Am Not Stalled?
12.5 % PUSH-Possibly-Valid Region (20% Chance? ~ 2.5%)
87.5 % PUSH-Valid Region
• We Can’t Just Push Indiscriminately!!!
4.9 %
FAA Upset Definition
FAA Upset Definition (45 AOB, +25 & -10 Pitch)
Roll (Right)Roll (Left)
Pitch (-down)
Pitch (+up)+ 90o
+ 50o
+ 30o
+ 25o
+ 10o
- 10o
- 50o
- 90o
90o90o 180o180o 135o135o
Courtesy of APS
Normal flight envelope
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Simulator Aerodynamic Model
David R. Gingras John N. Ralston
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Boeing Study
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Boeing Study
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Boeing Study
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When It Goes Right
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Fly By Wire Aircraft
• Some people have said that FBW technology can eliminate LOC-I– Always respect and follow manufacturers
guidance• Follow SOPs
• Pilots usually train in conventional aircraft • Often Pilots transition to conventional aircraft• Pilots need more extensive LOC-I training
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How Does This Turn Out?
It is a matter of the RIGHT training