cape.utp.edu.mycape.utp.edu.my/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/weibull-analysis-co… · risk based...

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Risk based inspection (RBI) is a method in which assets are identified for inspection based on their associated risks as opposed to a predetermined fixed time interval. A calculation of risk with the RBI and API (American Petroleum Institute) involves determining the probability of failure combined with its consequence. The standard API RP 581 provides quantitative procedures, which is based on Weibull analysis, to establish an inspection program using risk-based methods for pressurized fixed equipment, including pressure vessel, piping, tankage, pressure relief devices and heat exchanger tube bundles. In Weibull analysis, also known as life data analysis, the main objective is to predict the life of the equipment/ component in the population by fitting a statistical distribution to life data from a representative sample of units. The parameterized distribution for the failure data set can then be used to estimate important life characteristics of the product such as the probability of failure at a specific time, the mean life and the failure rate, to name a few. Weibull analysis has been included in the new version of API 581 Risk-Based Inspection Methodology, increasing the need to understand Weibull analysis. This course presents an overview of the basic concepts in Weibull analysis and how it is being applied in API 581. Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to: Understand the concepts of Weibull analysis and how it is applied in API 581. Describe the characteristics of Weibull distribution. Apply the Weibull analysis to determine the probability of failure of Pressure Relief Device (PRD) and Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle. Day 1 Overview of API 581 and application of Weibull Analysis in API 581. What is Weibull Analysis Basic probability and statistics in Reliability Random variables (discrete vs. continuous) Probability theory Probability density function & Cumulative density function Type of failure data (complete vs. censored) 4) Characteristis of Weibull Distribution β the shape parameter ɳ the characteristic life parameter 5) 2-parameter Weibull vs. 3-parameter Weibull 6) Case study and hand-on exercises Day 2 Use of Weibull curves for Pressure Relief Device (PRD) Prior Probability Prediction of Probability of Failure for PRD and Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle Case study and hands-on exercise

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Page 1: cape.utp.edu.mycape.utp.edu.my/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/WEIBULL-ANALYSIS-CO… · Risk based inspection (RBI) ... in the new version of API 581 Risk-Based Inspection ... Accelerated

Risk based inspection (RBI) is a method in which assets

are identified for inspection based on their associated

risks as opposed to a predetermined fixed time interval.

A calculation of risk with the RBI and API (American

Petroleum Institute) involves determining the

probability of failure combined with its consequence.

The standard API RP 581 provides quantitative

procedures, which is based on Weibull analysis, to

establish an inspection program using risk-based

methods for pressurized fixed equipment, including

pressure vessel, piping, tankage, pressure relief devices

and heat exchanger tube bundles.

In Weibull analysis, also known as life data analysis, the

main objective is to predict the life of the equipment/

component in the population by fitting a statistical

distribution to life data from a representative sample of

units. The parameterized distribution for the failure

data set can then be used to estimate important life

characteristics of the product such as the probability of

failure at a specific time, the mean life and the failure

rate, to name a few. Weibull analysis has been included

in the new version of API 581 Risk-Based Inspection

Methodology, increasing the need to understand

Weibull analysis. This course presents an overview of

the basic concepts in Weibull analysis and how it is

being applied in API 581.

Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

Understand the concepts of Weibull analysis and how it is applied in API 581.

Describe the characteristics of Weibull distribution.

Apply the Weibull analysis to determine the probability of failure of Pressure Relief Device (PRD) and Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle.

Day 1

Overview of API 581 and application of Weibull Analysis in API 581.

What is Weibull Analysis

Basic probability and statistics in Reliability

Random variables (discrete vs. continuous) Probability theory Probability density function & Cumulative density function Type of failure data (complete vs. censored)

4) Characteristis of Weibull Distribution β the shape parameter ɳ the characteristic life parameter

5) 2-parameter Weibull vs. 3-parameter Weibull 6) Case study and hand-on exercises Day 2

Use of Weibull curves for Pressure Relief Device (PRD)

Prior Probability

Prediction of Probability of Failure for PRD and Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle

Case study and hands-on exercise

Page 2: cape.utp.edu.mycape.utp.edu.my/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/WEIBULL-ANALYSIS-CO… · Risk based inspection (RBI) ... in the new version of API 581 Risk-Based Inspection ... Accelerated

Inspection engineers

Corrosion engineers

Reliability engineers

Safety engineers

Quality engineers

Asset integrity personnel

RM 1810 (Professionals)

20% Discount (UTP Alumni & Group

Registration)

10% Discount (Student)

Course fee is inclusive of 6% GST.

Group registration is applicable for 3 pax

and above from the same company.

The fees include refreshments and the

course materials.

A certificate of attendance will be issued

upon successful completion of the course.

Email to [email protected] for registration by 3rd October 2018.

Seats are limited. A seat will be confirmed once the payment / LOU is received.

Confirmed participants will be informed via email.

Course Coordinator: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ainul Akmar binti Mokhtar Tel: +605 - 368 7021/+6012-5195009 Email: [email protected] Course Registration: Mr. Farhan Zulkefly Tel: +603-2276 0136 / +60143150602 Email: [email protected]

Associate Professor Dr Ainul Akmar binti Mokhtar is an Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering Department and holds a position as a Programme Manager for MSc in Asset Management and Maintenance, UTP. Prior to joining UTP, she worked with Seagate Technology (M) Sdn Bhd as a process engineer. She obtained her first degree, BSc in Industrial Engineering from Purdue University, USA. She pursued her postgraduate study in MSc in Manufacturing Systems from Nottingham University, UK and PhD in

Mechanical Engineering from UTP. She is actively involved in research and industrial projects related to Reliability and Maintenance, Asset Management and Operations Research. She also actively involved in PETRONAS Skill Group 12 (SKG-12) Reliability discipline as a line trainer and an assessor for Accelerated Capability Development (ACD) program for SKG-12 engineers as well as a Line Trainer for RBI under Skill Group 15 (SKG-15).

Dr Masdi bin Muhammad, CEng (UK) is an Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering Department and a research cluster leader for Facility and Plant Engineering, UTP. He obtained his first and Master degrees, BSc in Mechanical Engineering and MSc in Manufacturing System Engineering, from Lehigh University, USA. His PhD in Mechanical Engineering was obtained from UTP with a research on “Reliability Model for Repairable Systems with Multi-State Degradation”. He is actively

involved in research collaboration and consultancy with PETRONAS OPUs and currently supervising 3 PhDs in the area of Reliability and Maintenance. He has twelve years of experience working in various positions in one of the leading semiconductor companies, involving process and equipment engineering, product development and material quality prior to joining UTP. He is a chartered engineer and member of BEM, IEM, ASME and ASQ.

Ir. Mohd Rosli Salim is a Staff Engineer (Inspection) in the Asset Integrity Management Department, PETRONAS Penapisan (Melaka) Sdn. Bhd (PP(M)SB). He holds a BSc. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Manchester, UK and Diploma in Petroleum Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. His working experience in PETRONAS started 1998 and has been involved in Risk Based Inspection (RBI) since 2001. Currently, he is one of the Subject Matter Expert (SME) for RBI and the Team Leader for RBI implementation in PP(M)

SB. He actively involves in Materials, Corrosion & Inspection discipline and a Line Trainer for RBI under Skill Group-15 (SKG-15), an assessor for Accelerated Capability Development (ACD) program for SKG-15 engineers and a Committee Member for PETRONAS Special Scheme Inspection Working Committee (PSSIWC).