capacity projection 2009-2018

8/3/2019 Capacity Projection 2009-2018

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CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................2

II. DEMAND..........................................................................................................................................4

II.1. PEAKLOAD AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF TURKISH ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BETWEEN 1999-2008 ........ 4II.2. ANALYSIS OF DAILY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FOR THE YEAR2008 ............................................................ 530SEPTEMBER2OCTOBER AND 811DECEMBER WERE RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY IN 2008. ........................................ 8II.3. LOAD DURATION CURVES FORYEARS 2007 AND 2008....................................................................................... 9II.4. DEMAND FORECASTS.......................................................................................................................................... 9

III. ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR YEARS 2007-2008.........14

III.1. YEAR2007 ...................................................................................................................................................... 14III.2. YEAR2008 ...................................................................................................................................................... 15

IV. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM.....................................................................17

IV.1.TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ................................................................................................................................... 17IV.2.DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM .................................................................................................................................... 18IV.3. SYSTEM LOSSES .............................................................................................................................................. 19

V. ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION.........................20

V.1.DEMAND............................................................................................................................................................ 20V.2.EXISTING GENERATING SYSTEM ....................................................................................................................... 20V.3.CAPACITIES UNDERCONSTRUCTION,CAPACITIES GRANTED BY LICENCE BY THE END OF 2008 AND EXPECTEDTO BE IN SERVICE ON PLANNED DATES ...................................................................................................................... 21

VI. RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................41

VI.I.CASE IA(HIGH DEMANDSCENARIO 1) ...................................................................................................... 41VI.2.CASE IB(HIGH DEMANDSCENARIO 2)...................................................................................................... 50VI.3.CASE IIA(LOW DEMANDSCENARIO 1)..................................................................................................... 60VI.4.CASE IIB(LOW DEMANDSCENARIO 2) ..................................................................................................... 69

VII. COMPARISON OF RESULTS.......................................................................................................78

VIII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................................80

IX. ANNEXES.......................................................................................................................................82

ANNEX1:EXISTINGSYSTEM(AS END OF YEAR2008) .................................................................................. 83ANNEX2:POWERPLANTSCONNECTEDTOANDDISCONNECTEDFROMTHEPOWERSYSTEMIN2008.......................................................................................................................................................................... 96ANNEX3:POWERPLANTSEXPECTEDTOBEINSERVICEBETWEEN2009-2016UNDER

CONSTRUCTIONANDGRANTEDBYLICENCE.............................................................................................. 98ANNEX3(CONT.):POWERPLANTSEXPECTEDTOBEINSERVICEBETWEEN2009-2016UNDERCONSTRUCTIONANDGRANTEDBYLICENCE............................................................................................ 101

X. Abbrivations...................................................................................................................................104


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I. INTRODUCTION

This report has been prepared by Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEA)according to the authorization on preparing 10-Year Generation Capacity Projection andsubmitting for approval of Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) within the framework of

the Electricity Market Law (EPK) No: 4628 and the Grid Code to guide the market participants byusing demand projections estimated by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB).

Electricity demand forecasts to be used for Generation Capacity Projection should beestimated by distribution companies. But, since the demand projections have not been completedyet by distribution companies, according to the temporary article of the Grid Code, High Demandand Low Demand series which have been revised by taking into consideration recent economiccrisis by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) are used in this study.

The study period for the Generation Capacity Projection is 10 years and it covers theperiod from 2009 to 2018. Supply-Demand Balance in terms of capacity and energy based on twodemand series is calculated by considering existing power plants, projects which are currentlyunder construction and new projects granted by licence foresighted to be in operation betweenyears 2009 and 2013 which are prepared as two different scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2)according to the Progress Report of January 2009 by Energy Market Regulatory Authority(EPDK). Related data to the project (average) and firm generation values for the next 10 years areobtained from Electricity Generation Corporation (EA), Turkish Electricity Trade andContracting Corporation (TETA) and General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DS) forexisting and under construction power plants. Data for new projects granted by licence by end ofDecember 2008 have been obtained from EPDK and these data have been updated according tothe Progress Report of January 2009 published by EPDK. While calculating generation

capacities, average generating values of hydro power plants under normal hydro conditions andfirm generating values of hydro power plants under dry hydro conditions are consideredseparately and Supply-Demand Balances together with energy reserves are calculated for bothdemand series (High Demand and Low Demand) and for both scenarios prepared by EPDK andrelated to the new projects foresighted to be in operation in this period (Scenario 1 and Scenario2), and then results are submitted in this report as Result I-A, Result I-B and Result II-A, ResultII-B.

In the report, it is analyzed how to meet both demand series according to:

Existing plants,

Existing plants - under construction state owned plants Existing plants - under construction state owned plants - licenced private sector plants as of

December 2008 and expected to be commissioned on planned dates and prepared as twodifferent scenarios in accordance with the Progress Reports of January 2009.

as end of 2008 for Turkish Electricity System.

New additional capacities are not considered in this study, because the GenerationExpansion Planning Study has not been updated yet.

In this capacity projection study covering the period 2009-2018, it is analyzed how to meetthe demand safely, i.e. with a suitable reserve, by taking into account existing plants, under

construction plants and licenced projects which are expected to be in service on planned date. Inthe study, generating amounts of these power plants are considered as Average and Firm


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generating capacities. The year in which the electricity shortage may occure is being determinedby this study, thus it is aimed to indicate the time of new additional capacity need to investors. .

In this study, the covering of demand according to average and firm generating amounts iscalculated by taking into account maintenance, planned outages, forced outages, hydro conditions

and rehabilitation schedule of power plants in the existing system. While calculating generatingcapacity amount it is also assumed that there will be no deficit on fuel supply.

Assumptions for this Capacity Projection Report are the most important data. andThis section should be carefully examined and results should be evaluated by consideringthese assumptions.


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II. DEMAND

In this section, electricity consumption development for the last decade (1999-2008), peakload development in the same period, typical daily load curves for the year 2008, comparison ofactual consumption values with forecasts and demand projections of peak loads and electricity

consumptions carried out by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) for the next 10years (2009-2018) are submitted.

Electricity Market Law No: 4628 and the Turkish Electricity Grid Code requireDistribution Companies to prepare demand forecast for their region covering 10-year ahead.Since Distribution Companies have not prepared the demand projections yet, the demand seriesupdated by taking into consideration the effects of the economic crisis starting in the year 2008 tothe electrical energy demand by ETKB are being used in this study as done before.

II.1. Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between 1999-2008

Gross electricity consumption (equal to gross generation + import export) has reached to190 TWh by annual increase of 8.8% for the year 2007, and to 198.1 TWh by annual increase of4.2% for the year 2008. Net consumption (internal consumption, grid losses and power theftincluded) is 155.1 TWh for the year 2007 and 161.9 TWh for 2008.

Table 1 and Figure 1 show instantaneous peak load and electricity consumption of TurkishPower System by years. The peak load and the minimum load are 29249 MW and 11100 MW forthe year 2007 respectively. The peak load is 30517 MW and the minimum load is 10409 MW for

the year 2008.

Table 1 : Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between19992008

PEAK LOAD(MW)

INCREASE(%)

ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTION

(GWh)INCREASE

(%)

1999 18938 6,4 118485 3,9

2000 19390 2,4 128276 8,3

2001 19612 1,1 126871 -1,1

2002 21006 7,1 132553 4,5

2003 21729 3,4 141151 6,52004 23485 8,1 150018 6,32005 25174 7,2 160794 7,2

2006 27594 9,6 174637 8,6

2007 29249 6,0 190000 8,8

2008 30517 4,3 198085 4,2


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Figure 1 : Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between19992018

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TKETM (GWh) SENARYO 1 ENERJTALEB SENARYO 2 ENERJTALEB

PUA NT Y K (MW) SENA RY O 1 PUA NT TA LEP SENA RY O 2 PUA NT TA LEP

II.2. Analysis of Daily Electricity Consumption for the Year 2008

Daily load curves of the maximum and minimum electricity consumption days in 2008,are on Figure 2 and Figure 3, daily load curves for third Wednesday of each month are on Figure4. The peak load is 30517 MW on the maximum consumption day in 2008.

Figure 2 : Loading order of power plants regarding type of primary energy resources onthe maximum consumption day of the year 2008 (July 23, 2008)


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Figure 3 : Loading order of power plants regarding type of primary energy resources onthe minimum consumption day of the year 2008 (October 1, 2008)


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Figure 4 : Daily Load Curves of Third Wednesday of Each Month in 2008


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30 September 2 October and 8 11 December were Religious Holiday in 2008.


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2007 YILI TERTPLENM YK ERS

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SAAT

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II.3. Load Duration Curves for Years 2007 and 2008

Figure 5 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2007

Figure 6 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2008

II.4. Demand Forecasts

In this Generation Capacity Projection study, the demand series which are updatedaccording to the economic crisis affect by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) areused. While determining the demand series, it is excepted that in the year of 2009 a recession of2% in the electrical energy demand will occure, in the years of 2010 and 2011 the increase ofelectrical energy demand will be low because of the effect of the economic crisis and in thefollowing years the annual rates of the demand increase calculated by using of MAED Model onMay 2008 are used for both the demand series.

Comparison of former demand forecasts carried out by ETKB with actual values issubmitted on Table 2 and Table 31.

1 The Study Report on Long-Term Electricity Demand of Turkey, ETKB-APKK, 2004


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Table 2 : Comparison of Former Demand Forecasts with Realized Values

PROJECTIONS

Electricity Policies5th EnergyCongress

6th EnergyCongress

Consumption 1985 1987 1988/1 1988/2 1990 1990/2 1993 1994 1996

1980 24.61981 26.31982 28.31983 29.61984 33.31985 36.4 35.91986 40.5 40.51987 44.9 45.21988 48.4 50.5 51.61989 52.6 56.4 57.9 57.9 55.5 52.6 52.61990 56.8 62.0 65.0 64.9 61.8 56.5 56.8

1991 60.5 68.0 71.7 71.9 68.2 68.2 68.21992 67.2 74.6 79.0 79.2 75.3 75.3 75.31993 73.4 81.8 87.2 87.3 83.1 83.1 83.1 71.71994 77.8 89.6 96.1 96.1 91.8 91.8 91.8 80.4 81.01995 85.5 98.3 105.9 105.9 101.2 101.2 93.0 88.4 87.21996 94.8 106.9 115.6 115.6 110.6 110.6 100.8 96.8 94.61997 105.5 116.3 126.8 126.8 120.6 120.6 109.3 106.0 102.5 105.31998 114.0 126.5 138.9 138.9 131.6 131.6 118.5 116.1 111.1 113.81999 118.5 137.5 152.3 152.3 143.5 143.5 128.4 127.2 120.3 123.72000 128.3 149.6 166.8 166.8 156.5 156.5 139.3 139.3 130.4 134.32001 126.9 177.0 177.0 165.3 168.0 150.8 150.7 140.9 146.2

2002 132.6 189.3 189.3 178.1 180.2 163.2 163.2 151.7 158.02003 141.2 202.5 202.5 191.9 193.4 176.7 176.7 163.4 170.82004 150.0 216.5 216.5 206.7 207.5 191.3 191.3 176.0 184.62005 160.8 231.5 231.5 222.7 222.7 207.1 207.1 189.6 199.62006 174.6 247.6 247.6 239.9 239.9 224.2 224.2 203.7 215.22007 190.0 264.8 264.8 258.5 258.5 242.7 242.7 218.8 231.82008 198.0 283.1 283.1 278.5 278.5 262.7 262.7 235.1 249.7


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Table 3 : Deviation Ratio of Demand Forecasts from Realization (%)PROJECTIONS

Policies5th EnergyCongress

6th EnergyCongress

1985 1987 1988/1 1988/2 1990 1990/2 1993 1994 1996

1980

19811982198319841985 -1.41986 0.01987 0.71988 4.3 6.61989 7.2 10.1 10.1 5.5 0.0 0.01990 9.2 14.4 14.3 8.8 -0.5 0.01991 12.4 18.5 18.8 12.7 12.7 12.7

1992 11.0 17.6 17.9 12.1 12.1 12.11993 11.4 18.8 18.9 13.2 13.2 13.2 -2.31994 15.2 23.5 23.5 18.0 18.0 18.0 3.3 4.11995 15.0 23.9 23.9 18.4 18.4 8.8 3.4 2.01996 12.8 21.9 21.9 16.7 16.7 6.3 2.1 -0.21997 10.2 20.2 20.2 14.3 14.3 3.6 0.5 -2.8 -0.21998 11.0 21.8 21.8 15.4 15.4 3.9 1.8 -2.5 -0.21999 16.0 28.5 28.5 21.1 21.1 8.4 7.3 1.5 4.42000 16.6 30.0 30.0 22.0 22.0 8.6 8.6 1.6 4.72001 39.5 39.5 30.3 32.4 18.8 18.8 11.0 15.22002 42.8 42.8 34.4 35.9 23.1 23.1 14.4 19.2

2003 43.5 43.5 36.0 37.0 25.2 25.2 15.8 21.02004 44.3 44.3 37.8 38.3 27.5 27.5 17.3 23.12005 44.0 44.0 38.5 38.5 28.8 28.8 17.9 24.12006 41.8 41.8 37.4 37.4 28.4 28.4 16.7 23.32007 39.4 39.4 36.1 36.1 27.7 24.7 15.2 22.02008 43.0 43.0 40.7 40.7 32.7 32.7 18.7 26.1


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Demand projection series (High Demand and Low Demand) together with annual increaserates are given in Table 4, Figure 7 and Table 5, Figure 8 respectively.

Demand series for total Turkish Electricity System are on Table 4 and Table 5 and they aregross values. Transmission and Distribution losses, internal consumptions of plants and power

theft are included in this gross demand. Further, embedded generation (connected to thedistribution system) and the generation of plants which are not subject to Load Dispatchinginstructions are included too.

Table 4 : Demand Forecast (High Demand)

PEAK LOAD ELECTRICITY DEMAND

Year MWIncrease

(%) GWhIncrease

(%)2009 29900 1940002010 31246 4,5 202730 4,5

2011 33276 6,5 215907 6,52012 35772 7,5 232101 7,52013 38455 7,5 249508 7,52014 41339 7,5 268221 7,52015 44440 7,5 288338 7,52016 47728 7,4 309675 7,4

2017 51260 7,4 332591 7,4

2018 55053 7,4 357202 7,4

Figure 7 : Demand Forecast (High Demand)


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Table 5 : Demand Forecast (Low Demand)

PEAK LOADELECTRICITY

DEMAND

Year MW Increase(%) GWh Increase(%)

2009 29900 1940002010 31246 4,5 202730 4,52011 32964 5,5 213880 5,52012 35173 6,7 228210 6,72013 37529 6,7 243500 6,72014 40044 6,7 259815 6,72015 42727 6,7 277222 6,72016 45546 6,6 295519 6,6

2017 48553 6,6 315023 6,62018 51757 6,6 335815 6,6

Figure 8 : Demand Forecast (Low Demand)


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III. ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FORYEARS 2007-2008

III.1. Year 2007

Total electricity generation of Turkey has been estimated to be around 187.7 TWh in theyear 2007 and so the consumption has been estimated around 185.2 TWh. The realization of theconsumption is 190 TWh by the increase of 8.8% according to the previous year. (Table 6). Bythe end of the year 2007 total installed capacity is 40835.7 MW. The breakdown of total installedcapacity by utilities is on Table 7.

Table 6 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2007 (GWh)

UTILITIES2007

AnnualProgram

2007RevisedAnnual

Program

2007Realization

EA 70766 75700 73839ADA 216AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIP OF EA 15485 19098 18488MOBILE PLANTS 101 138 797POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFEROF OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT 4141 4480 4268POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT 14674 14455 14256POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE CONTRACT 46013 44946 44970GENERATION COMPANIES 16124 17927 19399AUTOPRODUCERS 20430 16324 15325NON-EA GENERATION 116968 117368 117719TOTAL GENERATION OF TURKEY 187733 193068 191558

IMPORT 540 743 864

TURKEYS GENERATION + IMPORT 188273 193811 192422

EXPORT 3093 2873 2422

TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF TURKEY 185180 190938 190000


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Table 7 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2007)

INSTALLEDCAPACITY

TOTALINSTALLEDCAPACITYUTILITIES

MW MW

THERMAL 8.690,9EAHYDRO 11.350,3

20.041,2

AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIP OF EA THERMAL 3.834,0 3.834,0

THERMAL 30,0ADAHYDRO 111,3

141,3

THERMAL 620,0POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OFOPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT HYDRO 30,1

650,1

MOBILE PLANTS THERMAL 262,7 262,7

POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE

CONTRACT

THERMAL 6.101,8 6.101,8

THERMAL 1.449,6

WIND 17,4POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT

HYDRO 982,0

2.449,0

THERMAL 3130,3

WIND 127,7GENERATION COMPANIESHYDRO 363,0

3.621,0

THERMAL 3.175,2WIND 1,2AUTOPRODUCERSHYDRO 558,2

3.734,6

THERMAL 27.294,5

WIND 146,3TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITYHYDRO 13.394,9

40.835,7

III.2. Year 2008

In the year 2008, while the forecasted total electricity generation amount was 205.4 TWh,the realization was 198.4 TWh by the increase of 3.5% from the previous year and theconsumption was 198.1 TWh by the increase of 4.2% while it was forecasted as 204.0 TWh.(Table 8). By end of the year 2008, the total installed capacity is 41817.2 MW and the breakdown

of this total installed capacity to the utilities is on Table 9.

The power plants connected to the system and the decommissioning power plants in 2008are listed in Annex-2.


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Table 8 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2008 (GWh)

UTILITIES

2008Annual

Program

2008 Yl

RealizationEA 74731 74919ADUA 482 320AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIP OF EA 20472 22798MOBILE PLANTS 1800 330POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OFOPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT 4203 4315POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT 13758 13171POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATECONTRACT 47219 43342GENERATION COMPANIES 25600 23499

AUTOPRODUCERS 17118 15724NON-EA GENERATION 130352 123499TOTAL TURKEYS GENERATION 205383 198418IMPORT 600 789TURKEYS GENERATION + IMPORT 205983 199207EXPORT 1983 1122TOTAL TURKEYS CONSUMPTION 204000 198085

Table 9 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2008)

UTILITIESINSTALLEDCAPACITY

(MW)

TOTALINSTALLEDCAPACITY

THERMAL 8.690,9EA

HYDRO 11.455,920.146,8

AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIP OF EA THERMAL 3.834,0 3.834,0THERMAL 620,0POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF OPERATIONAL RIGHT

CONTRACT HYDRO 30,1650,1

MOBILE PLANTS THERMAL 262,7 262,7POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE CONTRACT THERMAL 6.101,8 6.101,8

THERMAL 1.449,6WIND 17,4

POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFERCONTRACT

HYDRO 982,0

2.449,0

THERMAL 3.687,3WIND 345,1GENERATION COMPANIESHYDRO 807,2

4.839,6

THERMAL 2.978,5WIND 1,2AUTOPRODUCERSHYDRO 553,5

3.533,2

THERMAL 27.624,9WIND 363,7TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITYHYDRO 13.828,7

41.817,2


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IV. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

IV.1. Transmission System

Transmission system is the group of facilities starting from generation units to distribution

network and transmitting energy at the level of 36 kV Voltage Level. Components of transmissionsystem are:

Transmission lines and cables Transmission Substations and Switching Centers (switchyards not containing step down

substations and transformers)

Turkish electricity transmission system, which is composed of 380 kV EHV lines and 154kV HV lines, 380/154 kV Autotransformers and 154/MV step down substations, has beenequipped with the sufficient amount of serial and shunt capacitors due to their technical andeconomic advantages. The transmission system has standard voltage level of 380 kV and 154 kV.Interconnection lines connecting Turkish system to Georgia and to Armenia are at the level of 220kV appropriate to other countries system.

Turkish generation and transmission system is being managed via 9 regional dispatchingcenters (Adapazar, aramba, Keban, zmir, Glba, kitelli, Erzurum, ukurova and Kepez)coordinated by the National Dispatching Center in Ankara (Glba). Operating of the powersystem is being carried out by SCADA2 and Energy Management System EMS3 software.SCADA system includes 380 kV lines and power plants greater than 50 MW. System operatorcan manage every kind of system studies necessary for more quality, daily operating programsand system frequency control.

The existing situation of the transmission system is summarized on Table 10 and Table 11.

Table 10 : Number of Transmission Substations and Capacities by primary voltage level(Values for 2008)

380 kV 154 kV 66 kV and lower TOTAL

AMOUNTCAPACITY

(MVA)AMOUNT

CAPACITY(MVA)

AMOUNTCAPACITY

(MVA)AMOUNT

CAPACITY(MVA)

174 33220 1010 55584 57 672 1241 89476

Table 11 : Length of Transmission Lines (km) ( Values for 2008)

380 kV 220 kV 154 kV 66 kV TOTAL

14420.2 84.5 31653.9 508.5 46667.1

154 kV underground capacity cable length is 162.9 km380 kV underground capacity cable length is 12.8 km

Transmission system is the main backbone of the electric system. Transmission System

investments are expensive and have long construction period.

2 Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition3 Energy Management System


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IV.2. Distribution System

The total length of Turkis electricity distribution system is 940922 km as end of the year2008. The breakdown of distribution line lengths by voltage level is summarized on Table 12.

Table 12 : Length of Distribution Lines (km)

33 kV 15,8 kV 10,5 kV 6,3 kV Other 0,4 kV TOTAL

339691 30848 5573 7792 101 556918 940922

Resource : TEDA

The current situation of Turkish Electricity Distribution System is as end of the year 2008outlined on Table 13.

Table 13 : Number of Distribution Substations and Capacities by primary voltage level

Secondary VoltageLevel

Secondary VoltageLevel 15,8 kV 10,5 kV 6,3 kV OTHER 0,4 kV TOTAL

AMOUNT 491 219 445 56 267.572 26878233 kV

CAPACITY (MVA) 4.090 3.528 3.344 268 71.663 82893

AMOUNT 5 3 31.233 3124115,8 kV

CAPACITY (MVA) 15 3 9.202 9220

AMOUNT 1 8.227 822810,5 kV

CAPACITY (MVA) 4 7.019 7023

AMOUNT 5 8.100 81056,3 kV

CAPACITY (MVA) 141 3.611 3752AMOUNT 9 1.920 1930

OTHERCAPACITY (MVA) 59 365 424

AMOUNT 491 219 451 74 317052 318286TOTAL

CAPACITY (MVA) 4090 3528 3363 471 91859 103312Resource : TEDA


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IV.3. System Losses

Transmission system has been designed appropriate to European standards by consideringpopulation density, location of supply resources and geografical conditions and the line lossesaround 3% which is at the level of international performances. (Table 14)

Table 14 : Transmission Losses

YEAR % GWh

2001 2.8 3374.4

2002 2.7 3440.7

2003 2.4 3330.7

2004 2.4 3422.82005 2.4 3695.3

2006 2.7 4543.8

2007 2.5 4523.0

2008 2.3 4388.4Resource : Turkish Electricity Generation-Transmission Statistics, TEA-APK


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V. ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITYPROJECTION

V.1. Demand

In the Generation Capacity Projection study covering the period between years 2009 and2018, the demand series which are updated according to the economic crisis started in the year2008 by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) are used. While determining thedemand series, it is excepted that in the year of 2009 a recession of 2% in the electrical energydemand will occure, in the years of 2010 and 2011 the increase of electrical energy demand will

be low because of the current economic crisis effect. For the following years, the annual growthrates of demand are being considered as two different scenerios, which are High Demand Seriesand Low Demand Series. Both demand series are calculated by using MAED model. By assumingno change on annual load curve characteristic for the study period, annual peak load values areobtained by using annual demand growth rates.

V.2. Existing Generating System

Power plants connected to Turkish Power System and in operation as the end of the year2008 are considered as existing system.

Maximum generating capacity called asProject Generation and reliable generating capacitycalled asFirm Generation for EA thermal power plants are obtained from EA.

Nominal generating capacity called asProject Generation and reliable generating capacitycalled asFirm Generation for EA hydro power plants are obtained from EA.

Project Generation and Firm Generation amounts of thermal power plants owned by

affiliated partnerships are obtained from EA for the period from 2009 to 2018. Project Generation and Firm Generation amounts of Autoproducer and Generation

Company power plants are obtained from their licences and these generation amounts areaccepted as to remain at the same level for the next 10-year period. Generating capacityamounts indicated on their licences are obtained from EPDK.

Generating capacity amounts of power plants under BO contract for the future ten-yearperiod are the energy sale amounts indicated on their contracts and obtained from TETA.

Generating capacity amounts of power plants under BOT and TOR contract for the future10-year period are the energy sale amounts indicated on their contracts and obtained fromTETA. In spide of the agreements of some power plants under BOT contract expiring withTETA in the period of the projection, it is assumed that these power plants will continue to

produce electricity in a different structure. The generation amount is taken as the same inthe period of the projection after expiring of their contracts.

The installed capacities of Autoproducer and Generation Company power plants (except fordecomissioning) whose licences have been cancelled are kept in total installed capacity andtheir generation capacities are taken as zero.

The contracted generation amounts of Mobile Plants are used as Generating CapacityAmount for mobile plants and these amounts are used till the end of their contracts withEA. Due to expiration of mobile power plant contracts with EA, the correspondinggeneration amounts by year will be decreased from the total generation capacity and onlythe mobile power plants going on their contracts are put in the lists. After finishing theircontracts, the power plants will be able to produce by taking Generation Company licence.The power plants with the licence of Generation Company till the end of 2008 are taken intoconsideration in the study. But the plants not only expiring their contracts and but also nottaking the new generation licence are not taken into consideration.


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Firm and Project generation capacity amounts of natural gas fired power plants are given byrelated ownerships by assuming that there will be no constraint on natural gas supply duringthe study period 2008-2017.

By taking into consideration of rehabilitation investments and maintenance-repair programfor state owned power plants, the generation amounts of the plants are given by EA.

2 x 150 MW units of Ambarl fuel oil fired power plant which is currently being extendedto be decommissioned in 2010 and new one to be commissioned as a natural gas fired powerplants with 840 MW (540 MW + 300 MW) total installed capacity in 2013 are taken intoconsideration.

V.3. Capacities Under Construction, Capacities Granted by Licence by the end of 2008 andexpected to be in service on planned dates

On line dates andProject(in average hydro conditions) andFirm (in dry hydro conditions)generation amounts of hydro power plants having total installed capacity of 2835.7 MWwhich are constructed by DS and expected to be in service between the years of 2009 and

2016 are obtained from DS. Annual generation amounts of the projects whosecommissioning dates are given project by project in detail taken into consideration in the

balance tables by calculating as of their commissioning dates. Installed capacity, project generation and firm generation data for power plants granted by

licence as the end of December 2008, under construction and expected to be in service onproposed time are obtained according to two seperate scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2)from January-2009 Progress Report by EPDK. The scenarios are prepared, by consideringassumptions below, by EPDK.

In this context, it is assumed that for the Scenario 1 the comissioning dates of both the projects whose progressive rates are less and equal than 10% and the projects whoseprogressive rates are not given are excepted uncertain. In addition the projects progressiverate being more than 70% is assumed to be commissioned in 2009. Furthermore it isassumed that the projects whose progressive rates are between 35% and 70% and whichhave the capacity of

less than 100 MW will be comissioned in 2010 between 100 MW and 1000 MW will be comissioned in 2011 and more than 1000 MW will be comissioned in 2012.

Besides the projects whose progressive rates are between 10% and 35% are assumed to be

comissioned 1 year forward of the year expected to be in service before.

Although the same methodology of the Scenario 1 is used for the Scenario 2, 15%, 40% and80% are used instead of 10%, 35% and 70% respectively for the progressive rates.

Since EPDK did not give the commissioning date of private sector projects granted bylicence in monthly/yearly detail and project by project, these projects are assumed to startoperation from the beginning of the second part of commissioning year and then thegenerations are taken into consideration in the balance tables according to this situation.

It is assumed that power plants under construction (2835.7 MW) by DS , Ambarl thermalpower plant being rehabilitated (840 MW) by EA and power plants granted by licence as

end of December 2008 and expected to be in service on proposed time (total installedcapacity, 11188.8 MW for Scenario 1 and 9047.1 MW Scenario 2) by EPDK will be inservice on proposed date within the period 2009-2016.


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No import and export are being considered. New additional capacities are not added to the system in this report, because the Generation

Expansion Planning Study hasnt been updated according to the variety (decreasing) of theelectricity energy demand being related to the economic crisis.

The year on which the shortage may occure is being determined by this study. By observing

this study results, investors might be able to decide new generation investment time.Construction period of power plants should also be taken into consideration for newinvestments.

Power plants in operation as end of the year 2008 are listed on ANNEX-1, power plantswhich have been commissioned and decommissioned in 2008 are on ANNEX-2 and power

plants currently under construction and granted by licence and expected to be in service onproposed time are listed as breakdown of the installed capacities by primary resources forScenario 1 and Scenario 2 on Table 15 and on Table 18 respectively and also as breakdownof the project and firm generation capacity by primary resources for Scenario 1 andScenario 2 on Table 16 and 17 respectively and on Table 19 and 20 respectively.


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Table 15 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Private Sector Power Plants underconstruction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.

Private Sector Power Plants (Scenario 1)Installed Capacity (MW)

RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTALBiogas 2,6 2,6

Waste Gas (LFG) 11,4 7,8 19,2

Other Coal 187,1 410,3 1215,8 1213,3 3026,6

Natural Gas 91,9 145,6 805,9 1911,9 2955,3

Fuel Oil 67,0 67,0

Lignite 1,7 1,7

Geothermal 54,9 54,9

Hydro 562,0 1024,7 1007,5 1818,7 4412,9

Wind 205,8 173,3 269,5 648,6

TOTAL 1173,0 1354,9 2501,1 4946,4 1213,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 11188,8

State-owned Power Plants

Installed Capacity (MW)

RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 840,0 840,0

Hydro 495,3 470,4 670,0 1200,0 2835,7

TOTAL 495,3 470,4 670,0 0,0 840,0 0,0 0,0 1200,0 3675,7

GRAND TOTAL


RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTALThermal 347,7 145,6 1216,3 3127,7 2053,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 6890,6

Hydro 1057,3 1495,1 1677,5 1818,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 1200,0 7248,6

Wind+Renewable 263,3 184,7 277,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 725,2

TOTAL 1668,3 1825,3 3171,1 4946,4 2053,3 0,0 0,0 1200,0 14864,5

NOTE: 2 x 150 MW units of Ambarl fuel oil fired power plant which is currently beingextended to be decommissioned in 2010 and new one to be commissioned as a natural gasfired power plant with 840 MW (540 MW + 300 MW) total installed capacity in 2013 aretaken into consideration.


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Table 16 : Breakdown of Project Generation of Private Sector Power Plants underconstruction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.

Private SectorPower Plants (Scenario 1)

Project Generation (GWh)

RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Biogas 9,9 9,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 19,8

Waste Gas (LFG) 0,0 43,8 73,8 30,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 147,5

Other Coal 595,2 595,2 1458,0 5778,0 8327,8 4007,8 0,0 0,0 20762,0

Natural Gas 352,1 932,0 3700,8 10795,2 7674,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 23454,5

Fuel Oil 195,1 195,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 390,2

Lignite 4,2 4,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8,4

Geothermal 187,7 187,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 375,5

Hydro 1112,9 3084,1 3793,4 4775,6 2953,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 15719,4

Wind 400,5 724,0 810,0 486,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2421,1TOTAL 2857,6 5776,0 9836,0 21865,4 18955,6 4007,8 0,0 0,0 63298,5



RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5880,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5880,0

Hydro 516,8 1964,4 1104,5 1500,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 3833,0 8919,0

TOTAL 516,8 1964,4 1104,5 1500,3 5880,0 0,0 0,0 3833,0 14799,0

GRAND TOTAL


RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 1146,6 1726,5 5158,8 16573,2 21882,2 4007,8 0,0 0,0 50495,2

Hydro 1629,7 5048,5 4897,9 6275,9 2953,4 0,0 0,0 3833,0 24638,3

Wind+Renewable 598,2 965,4 883,8 516,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2963,9

TOTAL 3374,4 7740,4 10940,5 23365,7 24835,6 4007,8 0,0 3833,0 78097,4


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Tablo 17: Breakdown of Firm Generation of Private Sector Power Plants underconstruction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.


Firm Generation (GWh)

RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Biogas 9,9 9,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 19,8

Waste Gas (LFG) 0,0 43,8 73,8 30,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 147,5

Other Coal 595,2 595,2 1458,0 5778,0 8327,8 4007,8 0,0 0,0 20762,0

Natural Gas 352,1 932,0 3700,8 10795,2 7674,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 23454,5

Fuel Oil 195,1 195,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 390,2

Lignite 4,2 4,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8,4

Geothermal 187,7 187,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 375,5

Hydro 523,0 1449,5 1782,9 2244,5 1388,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 7388,1

Wind 340,5 615,4 688,5 413,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2057,9

TOTAL 2207,7 4032,9 7703,9 19261,3 17390,3 4007,8 0,0 0,0 54604,1



RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5606,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 5606,4

Hydro 371,9 1347,4 617,2 858,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 2459,0 5654,0

TOTAL 371,9 1347,4 617,2 858,5 5606,4 0,0 0,0 2459,0 11260,4

GRAND TOTAL


RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 1146,6 1726,5 5158,8 16573,2 21608,6 4007,8 0,0 0,0 50221,6

Hydro 894,9 2796,9 2400,1 3103,0 1388,1 0,0 0,0 2459,0 13042,1

Wind+Renewable 538,1 856,8 762,3 443,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2600,8

TOTAL 2579,6 5380,3 8321,1 20119,8 22996,7 4007,8 0,0 2459,0 65864,5


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Tablo 18: Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Private Sector Power Plants underconstruction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.


Installed Capacity (MW)RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Biogas 2,6 2,6

Waste Gas (LFG) 11,4 7,8 19,2

Other Coal 187,1 410,3 607,9 1213,3 2418,7

Natural Gas 91,9 78,6 872,9 1025,0 2068,4

Fuel Oil 67,0 67,0

Lignite 1,7 1,7

Geothermal 47,4 7,5 54,9

Hydro 412,5 893,3 956,2 1594,0 3856,1

Wind 172,8 183,8 202,0 558,6

TOTAL 983,0 1174,6 2449,3 2201,9 2238,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 9047,1



RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 840,0 840,0

Hydro 495,3 470,4 670,0 1200,0 2835,7

TOTAL 495,3 470,4 670,0 0,0 840,0 0,0 0,0 1200,0 3675,7

GENEL TOPLAM

Installed Capacity (MW)RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 347,7 78,6 1283,3 607,9 3078,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 5395,8

Hydro 907,8 1363,7 1626,2 1594,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1200,0 6691,8

Wind+Renewable 222,8 202,7 209,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 635,2

TOTAL 1478,3 1645,0 3119,3 2201,9 3078,3 0,0 0,0 1200,0 12722,8

NOTE: 2 x 150 MW units of Ambarl fuel oil fired power plant which is currently beingextended to be decommissioned in 2010 and new one to be commissioned as a natural gasfired power plants with 840 MW (540 MW + 300 MW) total installed capacity in 2013 are

taken into consideration.


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Tablo 19: Breakdown of Project Generation of Private Sector Power Plants underconstruction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.


Project Generation (GWh)RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Biogas 9,9 9,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 19,8

Waste Gas (LFG) 0,0 43,8 73,8 30,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 147,5

Other Coal 595,2 595,2 1458,0 3618,0 6167,8 4007,8 0,0 0,0 16442,0

Natural Gas 352,1 672,0 3700,8 3380,8 4200,0 4200,0 0,0 0,0 16505,7

Fuel Oil 195,1 195,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 390,2

Lignite 4,2 4,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8,4

Geothermal 156,2 187,7 31,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 375,5

Hydro 825,0 2579,1 3527,9 4338,1 2564,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 13834,5

Wind 319,9 673,0 713,3 360,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2066,3TOTAL 2457,6 4960,1 9505,3 11727,1 12932,1 8207,8 0,0 0,0 49790,0



RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5880,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5880,0

Hydro 516,8 1964,4 1104,5 1500,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 3833,0 8919,0

TOTAL 516,8 1964,4 1104,5 1500,3 5880,0 0,0 0,0 3833,0 14799,0

GRAND TOTAL


RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOPLAM

Thermal 1146,6 1466,5 5158,8 6998,8 16247,8 8207,8 0,0 0,0 39226,4

Hydro 1341,8 4543,5 4632,4 5838,4 2564,3 0,0 0,0 3833,0 22753,5

Wind+Renewable 486,0 914,4 818,6 390,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2609,1

TOTAL 2974,4 6924,5 10609,8 13227,4 18812,1 8207,8 0,0 3833,0 64589,0


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Tablo 20: Breakdown of Firm Generation of Private Sector Power Plants underconstruction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.

Private SectorPower Plants (Scenario 2)Firm Generation (GWh)

RESOURCES 9,9 9,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 TOTALBiogas 0,0 43,8 73,8 30,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 147,5

Waste Gas (LFG) 595,2 595,2 1458,0 3618,0 6167,8 4007,8 0,0 0,0 16442,0

Other Coal 352,1 672,0 3700,8 3380,8 4200,0 4200,0 0,0 0,0 16505,7

Natural Gas 195,1 195,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 390,2

Fuel Oil 4,2 4,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8,4

Lignite 156,2 187,7 31,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 375,5

Geothermal 387,8 1212,2 1658,1 2038,9 1205,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 6502,2

Hydro 271,9 572,0 606,3 306,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1756,4

Wind 1972,4 3492,2 7528,5 9373,9 11573,0 8207,8 0,0 0,0 42147,8

TOTAL



RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Thermal 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5606,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 5606,4

Hydro 371,9 1347,4 617,2 858,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 2459,0 5654,0

TOTAL 371,9 1347,4 617,2 858,5 5606,4 0,0 0,0 2459,0 11260,4

GRAND TOTAL


RESOURCES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOPLAM

Thermal 1146,6

1466,5

5158,8 6998,8 15974,2 8207,8 0,0

0,0 38952,8

Hydro 759,7 2559,6 2275,3 2897,4 1205,2 0,0 0,0 2459,0 12156,2

Wind+Renewable 438,0 813,5 711,6 336,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2299,2

TOTAL 2344,3 4839,6 8145,7 10232,4 17179,4 8207,8 0,0 2459,0 53408,2

The installed capacities and generation data of DS power plants which are currently under construction ,Ambarl natural gas fired power plant extended by EA and power plants granted by licence as end ofDecember 2008 started the construction but not in operation yet according to January 2009 ProgressReport of EPDK for both scenarios are listed on ANNEX-3.

The breakdown of total installed capacity which consists existing capacity as end of the year 2008 and newadditional capacities which are under construction and granted by licence and expected to be in service onproposed date according to Scenario 1 by primary resources and by utilities are listed on Table 21 andFigure 9 and also according to Scenario 2 are on Table 24 and Figure 10.


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Table 21 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources(Scenario 1)

(Including Existing, State-owned underconstruction and Private Sector under construction

granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time Power Plants)

(MW)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FUEL OIL 680 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380

DIESEL 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181

HARD COAL 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

LIGNITE 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461

NATURAL GAS 3903 3903 3903 3903 4743 4743 4743 4743 4743 4743

GEOTHERMAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HYDRO 11951 12422 13092 13092 13092 13092 13092 14292 14292 14292

EA and AFFILIATEDPARTNERSHIP POWER

PLANTS

TOTAL 24476 24647 25317 25317 26157 26157 26157 27357 27357 27357

LIGNITE 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 620

HYDRO 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30POWER PLANTS

UNDER TORCONTRACT

TOTAL 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650NATURAL GAS 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782

IMPORTED COAL 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320POWER PLANTS

UNDER BO CONTRACTTOTAL 6102 6102 6102 6102 6102 6102 6102 6102 6102 6102

NATURAL GAS 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450

HYDRO 982 982 982 982 982 982 982 982 982 982

WIND 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17POWER PLANTS

UNDER BOT CONTRACT

TOTAL 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449

FUEL OIL 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263

DIESEL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0MOBILE PLANTS

TOTAL 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263

FUEL OIL 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 799

DIESEL 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

IMPORTED COAL 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196

HARD COAL 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255

LIGNITE 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178

LPG 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52

NATURAL GAS 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388

BOGAS 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

NAPHTA 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71

OTHER 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

HYDRO 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554

WIND 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

AUTOPRODUCERS

TOTAL 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538

FUEL OIL 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358

DIESEL 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15LIGNITE 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IMPORT COAL 322 322 732 1948 3162 3162 3162 3162 3162 3162

NATURAL GAS 3171 3317 4123 6034 6034 6034 6034 6034 6034 6034

NAPHTA 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107

GEOTHERMAL 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

HYDRO 1369 2394 3401 5220 5220 5220 5220 5220 5220 5220

BOGAS+WASTE 28 39 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47

WIND 551 724 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994

GENERATIONCOMPANIES GRANTED

BY LICENCE

TOTAL 6007 7362 9863 14810 16023 16023 16023 16023 16023 16023

GRAND TOTAL 43485 45011 48182 53128 55182 55182 55182 56382 56382 56382


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Table 21 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Primary Resources(Scenario 1)


granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time Power Plants)(MW)

YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LIGNITE 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260

HARD COAL+ASPHALTIT 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 555

IMPORTED COAL 1838 1838 2248 3464 4678 4678 4678 4678 4678 4678

NATURAL GAS 14693 14839 15645 17556 18396 18396 18396 18396 18396 18396

GEOTHERMAL 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

FUEL OIL 2100 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800

DIESEL 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206

OTHER 251 251 251 251 251 251 251 251 251 251

THERMAL TOTAL 27989 27835 29051 32179 34232 34232 34232 34232 34232 34232

BOGAS+WASTE 41 52 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60HYDRO 14886 16381 18058 19877 19877 19877 19877 21077 21077 21077

WIND 570 743 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012

TOTAL 43485 45011 48182 53128 55182 55182 55182 56382 56382 56382

Figure 9 : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Utilities (Scenario 1)

Project and firm generation capacities of existing power plants as end of the year 2008, underconstruction state-owned power plants and under construction private sector power plants granted

by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date by utilities and by primary resources areindicated according to Scenario 1 on Table 22 and on Table 23 respectively and according to

Scenario 2 on Table 25 and Table 26 respectively.


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Table 22 : Breakdown of Project Generation Capacity by Utilities and by PrimaryResources (Scenario 1)



(GWh)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FUEL OIL 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760

DIESEL 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260

HARD COAL 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950

LIGNITE 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497

NATURAL GAS 27320 27320 27320 27320 33200 33200 33200 33200 33200 33200

HYDRO 40165 42129 43234 44734 44734 44734 44734 48567 48567 48567

EA andAFFILIATED

PARTNERSHIPPOWER PLANTS

TOTAL 123952 125916 127021 128521 134401 134401 134401 138234 138234 138234

LIGNITE 3624 3504 3546 3594 3642 3553 3504 3546 3594 3642


UNDER TORCONTRACT TOTAL 3624 3504 3546 3594 3642 3553 3504 3546 3594 3642

NATURAL GAS 37787 38885 38653 38133 37947 37683 37485 38175 37973 33247

IMPORTED COAL 9135 9092 9309 9065 9025 8526 8775 9466 9031 9078

POWER PLANTS

UNDER BOCONTRACT TOTAL 46922 47978 47962 47198 46972 46208 46260 47641 47005 42325

NATURAL GAS 11245 10777 9974 11012 10777 9974 10834 10777 10146 11002

HYDRO 3479 3576 3527 3477 3428 3379 3340 3385 3385 3385

WIND 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

POWER PLANTSUNDER BOTCONTRACT

TOTAL 14774 14402 13551 14538 14254 13403 14223 14211 13580 14436

FUEL OIL 1752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0MOBILE PLANTS

TOTAL 1752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FUEL OIL 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066

DIESEL 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73

IMPORTED COAL 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470

HARD COAL 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072

LIGNITE 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436

LPG 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401

NATURAL GAS 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749

BOGAS 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72

NAPHTA 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546

OTHER 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

HYDRO 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688

WIND 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

AUTOPRODUCERS

TOTAL 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720

FUEL OIL 2270 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465

DIESEL 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

LIGNITE 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IMPORT COAL1543 2138 3596 9374 17702 21710 21710 21710 21710 21710

NAPHTA 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571

NATURAL GAS 24223 25155 28856 39651 47326 47326 47326 47326 47326 47326

GEOTHERMAL 399 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 587

HYDRO 4330 7414 11207 15983 18936 18936 18936 18936 18936 18936

BOGAS+WASTE 199 253 327 357 357 357 357 357 357 357

WIND 1591 2315 3125 3612 3612 3612 3612 3612 3612 3612

GENERATIONCOMPANIESGRANTED BY

LICENCE

TOTAL 35206 40982 50818 72683 91639 95647 95647 95647 95647 95647

GRAND TOTAL 246949 253501 263617 287254 311628 313931 314754 319998 318779 315004


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Table 22 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Project Generation Capacity by Primary Resources(Scenario 1)



(GWh)YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LIGNITE 52560 52445 52486 52534 52583 52493 52445 52486 52534 52583

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022

IMPORTED COAL 12148 12701 14376 19910 28197 31706 31955 32646 32211 32258

NATURAL GAS 110325 111887 114553 125866 138999 137933 138593 139227 138394 134525

GEOTHERMAL 399 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 587

FUEL OIL 13848 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291

DIESEL 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408

OTHER 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663

THERMAL TOTAL 195372 196003 200385 217280 238750 241102 241964 243330 242110 238335

BOGAS+WASTE 271 325 399 429 429 429 429 429 429 429

HYDRO 49662 54807 59657 65882 68787 68738 68699 72577 72577 72577

WIND 1643 2366 3176 3663 3663 3663 3663 3663 3663 3663

TOTAL 246949 253501 263617 287254 311628 313931 314754 319998 318779 315004


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Table 23 : Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources(Scenario 1)



(GWh)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FUEL OIL 2625 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638

DIESEL 1071 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051

HARD COAL 1967 1537 1221 1537 1840 1840 1840 1840 1840 1840

LIGNITE 37041 36435 35972 38160 44062 44062 44062 44062 44062 44574

NATURAL GAS 22659 23967 25919 24614 31526 30223 31526 31005 31526 31005

HYDRO 24531 25879 26496 27354 27354 27354 27354 29813 29813 29813

EA andAFFILIATED


TOTAL 89896 91508 93297 95354 108470 107167 108470 110408 110929 110920

LIGNITE 3624 3504 3546 3594 3642 3553 3504 3546 3594 3642



NATURAL GAS 37787 38885 38653 38133 37947 37683 37485 38175 37973 33247

IMPORTED COAL 9135 9092 9309 9065 9025 8526 8775 9466 9031 9078POWER PLANTS


NATURAL GAS 11245 10777 9974 11012 10777 9974 10834 10777 10146 11002

HYDRO 3479 3576 3527 3477 3428 3379 3340 3385 3385 3385

WIND 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49


TOTAL 14774 14402 13551 14538 14254 13403 14223 14211 13580 14436


TOTAL 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FUEL OIL 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066

DIESEL 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7

IMPORTED COAL 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470

HARD COAL 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072

LIGNITE436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436

LPG 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401

NATURAL GAS 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749

BOGAS 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72

NAPHTA 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546

OTHER 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

HYDRO 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223

WIND 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

AUTOPRODUCERS

TOTAL 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255

FUEL OIL 2270 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465

DIESEL 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

LIGNITE 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IMPORT COAL 1543 2138 3596 9374 17702 21710 21710 21710 21710 21710NAPHTA 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571

NATURAL GAS 24223 25155 28856 39651 47326 47326 47326 47326 47326 47326

GEOTHERMAL 391 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 579

HYDRO 2381 3808 5591 7835 9223 9223 9223 9223 9223 9223

BOGAS+WASTE 185 239 313 343 343 343 343 343 343 343

WIND 1400 2015 2703 3117 3117 3117 3117 3117 3117 3117


LICENCE

TOTAL 33044 37054 44757 64019 81409 85417 85417 85417 85417 85417

GRAND TOTAL 209514 214700 223368 244957 275002 276003 278128 281477 280779 276995


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Table 23 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Firm Generation Capacity by Primary Resources(Scenario 1)



(GWh)YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LIGNITE 41105 40384 39961 42198 48148 48058 48010 48051 48100 48660


IMPORTED COAL 12148 12701 14376 19910 28197 31706 31955 32646 32211 32258

NATURAL GAS 105664 108534 113152 123159 137324 134956 136919 137032 136720 132329

GEOTHERMAL 391 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 579

FUEL OIL 10961 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169

DIESEL 1219 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199

OTHER 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663

THERMAL TOTAL 176190 177837 183392 201485 230190 231240 233405 234250 233551 229768

BOGAS+WASTE 257 311 385 415 415 415 415 415 415 415

HYDRO 31615 34486 36837 39890 41229 41180 41141 43645 43645 43645

WIND 1452 2066 2755 3168 3168 3168 3168 3168 3168 3168

TOTAL 209514 214700 223368 244957 275002 276003 278128 281477 280779 276995


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Table 24: Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources(Scenario 2)



(MW)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018FUEL OIL 680 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380

DIESEL 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181

HARD COAL 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

LIGNITE 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461 7461

NATURAL GAS 3903 3903 3903 3903 4743 4743 4743 4743 4743 4743

HYDRO 11951 12422 13092 13092 13092 13092 13092 14292 14292 14292

EA andAFFILIATED


TOTAL 24476 24647 25317 25317 26157 26157 26157 27357 27357 27357

LIGNITE 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 620



NATURAL GAS 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782 4782

IMPORTED COAL 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320

POWER PLANTS


NATURAL GAS 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450 1450

HYDRO 982 982 982 982 982 982 982 982 982 982

WIND 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17


TOTAL 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449 2449


TOTAL 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263

FUEL OIL 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 799

DIESEL 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

IMPORTED COAL 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196

HARD COAL 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255

LIGNITE 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178

LPG 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52

NATURAL GAS 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388 1388

BOGAS 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

NAPHTA 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71

OTHER 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

HYDRO 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554

WIND 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

AUTOPRODUCERS

TOTAL 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538 3538

FUEL OIL 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358

DIESEL 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

LIGNITE 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IMPORT COAL 322 322 732 1340 2554 2554 2554 2554 2554 2554

NATURAL GAS 3171 3250 4123 4123 5148 5148 5148 5148 5148 5148

NAPHTA 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107

GEOTHERMAL 77 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

HYDRO 1220 2113 3069 4663 4663 4663 4663 4663 4663 4663

BOGAS+WASTE 28 39 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47

WIND 518 702 904 904 904 904 904 904 904 904


LICENCE

TOTAL 5817 6992 9441 11643 13881 13881 13881 13881 13881 13881

GRAND TOTAL 43295 44640 47760 49962 53040 53040 53040 54240 54240 54240


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Table 24 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Primary Resources(Scenario 2)



(MW)YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LIGNITE 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260 8260


IMPORTED COAL 1838 1838 2248 2856 4070 4070 4070 4070 4070 4070

NATURAL GAS 14693 14772 15645 15645 17510 17510 17510 17510 17510 17510

GEOTHERMAL 77 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

FUEL OIL 2100 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800

DIESEL 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206

OTHER 251 251 251 251 251 251 251 251 251 251

THERMAL TOTAL 27982 27768 29051 29659 32737 32737 32737 32737 32737 32737

BOGAS+WASTE 41 52 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

HYDRO 14736 16100 17726 19320 19320 19320 19320 20520 20520 20520

WIND 537 720 922 922 922 922 922 922 922 922

TOTAL 43295 44640 47760 49962 53040 53040 53040 54240 54240 54240

Figure 10: Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Utilities (Scenario 2)


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Table 25: Breakdown of Project Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources(Scenario 2)



(GWh)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FUEL OIL 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760

DIESEL 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260 1260

HARD COAL 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950

LIGNITE 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497 48497

NATURAL GAS 27320 27320 27320 27320 33200 33200 33200 33200 33200 33200

HYDRO 40165 42129 43234 44734 44734 44734 44734 48567 48567 48567

EA andAFFILIATED


TOTAL 123952 125916 127021 128521 134401 134401 134401 138234 138234 138234

LIGNITE 3624 3504 3546 3594 3642 3553 3504 3546 3594 3642



NATURAL GAS 37787 38885 38653 38133 37947 37683 37485 38175 37973 33247

IMPORTED COAL 9135 9092 9309 9065 9025 8526 8775 9466 9031 9078

POWER PLANTS


NATURAL GAS 11245 10777 9974 11012 10777 9974 10834 10777 10146 11002

HYDRO 3479 3576 3527 3477 3428 3379 3340 3385 3385 3385

WIND 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49


TOTAL 14774 14402 13551 14538 14254 13403 14223 14211 13580 14436


TOTAL 1752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FUEL OIL 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066

DIESEL 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73

IMPORTED COAL 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470

HARD COAL 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072

LIGNITE 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436

LPG 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401NATURAL GAS 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749

BOGAS 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72

NAPHTA 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546

OTHER 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

HYDRO 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688 1688

WIND 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

AUTOPRODUCERS

TOTAL 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720 20720

FUEL OIL 2270 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465

DIESEL 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

LIGNITE 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IMPORT COAL 1543 2138 3596 7214 13382 17390 17390 17390 17390 17390

NAPHTA571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571

NATURAL GAS 24223 24895 28596 31977 36177 40377 40377 40377 40377 40377

GEOTHERMAL 367 555 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 587

HYDRO 4042 6621 10149 14487 17051 17051 17051 17051 17051 17051

BOGAS+WASTE 199 253 327 357 357 357 357 357 357 357

WIND 1510 2183 2897 3257 3257 3257 3257 3257 3257 3257

GENERATION

COMPANIESGRANTED BYLICENCE

TOTAL 34806 39766 49271 60998 73930 82138 82138 82138 82138 82138

GRAND TOTAL 246549 252285 262070 275569 293919 300422 301246 306489 305270 301495


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Table 25 (Cont.): Breakdown of Total Project Generation Capacity by PrimaryResources (Scenario 2)



(GWh)EAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LIGNITE 52560 52445 52486 52534 52583 52493 52445 52486 52534 52583

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022 3022

IMPORTED COAL 12148 12701 14376 17750 23877 27386 27635 28326 27891 27938

NATURAL GAS 110325 111627 114293 118191 127850 130984 131645 132278 131445 127576

GEOTHERMAL 367 555 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 587

FUEL OIL 13848 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291 12291

DIESEL 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408 1408

OTHER 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663

THERMAL TOTAL 195341 195711 200125 207446 223281 229833 230695 232061 230842 227067

BOGAS+WASTE 271 325 399 429 429 429 429 429 429 429

HYDRO 49374 54015 58598 64387 66902 66853 66814 70692 70692 70692

WIND 1563 2235 2948 3308 3308 3308 3308 3308 3308 3308

TOTAL 246549 252285 262070 275569 293919 300422 301246 306489 305270 301495


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Table 26: Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and Primary Resources(Scenario 2)



(GWh)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FUEL OIL 2625 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638 2638

DIESEL 1071 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051 1051

HARD COAL 1967 1537 1221 1537 1840 1840 1840 1840 1840 1840

LIGNITE 37041 36435 35972 38160 44062 44062 44062 44062 44062 44574

NATURAL GAS 22659 23967 25919 24614 31526 30223 31526 31005 31526 31005

HYDRO 24531 25879 26496 27354 27354 27354 27354 29813 29813 29813

EA andAFFILIATED


TOTAL 89896 91508 93297 95354 108470 107167 108470 110408 110929 110920

LIGNITE 3624 3504 3546 3594 3642 3553 3504 3546 3594 3642



NATURAL GAS 37787 38885 38653 38133 37947 37683 37485 38175 37973 33247IMPORTED COAL 9135 9092 9309 9065 9025 8526 8775 9466 9031 9078

POWER PLANTSUNDER BOCONTRACT TOTAL 46922 47978 47962 47198 46972 46208 46260 47641 47005 42325

NATURAL GAS 11245 10777 9974 11012 10777 9974 10834 10777 10146 11002

HYDRO 3479 3576 3527 3477 3428 3379 3340 3385 3385 3385

WIND 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49


TOTAL 14774 14402 13551 14538 14254 13403 14223 14211 13580 14436


TOTAL 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FUEL OIL 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066 5066

DIESEL 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7 72,7

IMPORTED COAL 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470 1470

HARD COAL 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072 1072

LIGNITE 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436

LPG 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401

NATURAL GAS 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749 9749

BOGAS 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72

NAPHTA 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546 546

OTHER 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

HYDRO 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223 1223

WIND 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

AUTOPRODUCERS

TOTAL 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255 20255

FUEL OIL 2270 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465 2465

DIESEL 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

LIGNITE 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

H.COAL+ASPHALTIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IMPORT COAL 1543 2138 3596 7214 13382 17390 17390 17390 17390 17390

NAPHTA 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 571NATURAL GAS 24223 24895 28596 31977 36177 40377 40377 40377 40377 40377

GEOTHERMAL 359 547 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 579

HYDRO 2246 3435 5093 7132 8337 8337 8337 8337 8337 8337

BOGAS+WASTE 185 239 313 343 343 343 343 343 343 343

WIND 1331 1903 2509 2815 2815 2815 2815 2815 2815 2815

GENERATION

COMPANIESGRANTED BYLICENCE

TOTAL 32809 36277 43806 53180 64753 72961 72961 72961 72961 72961

GRAND TOTAL 209278 213924 222416 234119 258346 263547 265672 269021 268323 264539


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Table 26 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and PrimaryResources(Scenario 2)


granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time Power Plants)(GWh)

YEAR2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LIGNITE 41105 40384 39961 42198 48148 48058 48010 48051 48100 48660


IMPORTED COAL 12148 12701 14376 17750 23877 27386 27635 28326 27891 27938

NATURAL GAS 105664 108274 112892 115485 126176 128007 129970 130083 129771 125380

GEOTHERMAL 359 547 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 579

FUEL OIL 10961 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169 10169

DIESEL 1219 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199 1199

OTHER 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663 1663

THERMAL TOTAL 176158 177545 183132 191651 214722 219972 222136 222981 222283 218499

BOGAS+WASTE 257 311 385 415 415 415 415 415 415 415

HYDRO 31479 34114 36340 39187 40343 40294 40255 42759 42759 42759

WIND 1383 1954 2560 2867 2867 2867 2867 2867 2867 2867

TOTAL 209278 213924 222416 234119 258346 263547 265672 269021 268323 264539


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VI. RESULTS

VI.I. Case I A (High Demand Scenario 1)

In this section the power plants which are

Existing as end of the year 2008, State owned under construction and

Private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date based on January 2009 Progress Report of EPDK and prepared according toScenario 1 by EPDK,

considered with High Demand Series. By taking into consideration the effects of the economic crisis,Demand Series have been revized by ETKB and the generation demand is expected to reach 202.7 TWh in2010 and 357.2 TWh in 2018. The supply and demand situation according to these data is calculated:According to above situation, peak demand can be covered in the all study period. When the generationcapacity is considered, the energy demand can not be covered in 2015 according to firm generationcapacity and in 2017 according to project generation capacity.

The development of the existing capacity, the state-owned capacity under construction and the privatesector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on the proposedtime, covering the increasing demand by years is indicated on Table 27.

Beside this, not only the development of total installed capacity consisting of the existing, the state ownedunder construction and the private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to bein service on proposed date but also the development of the capacity reserves after covering the peak loadwith the power plants which are;

only existing capacity,

existing capacity + state owned capacity under construction and

existing capacity + state owned capacity under construction + private sector owned underconstruction capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date

are submitted on Table 27 and the year is determined in which new generation facilities will be needed.

When the existing power plants are considered solely, capacity reserve starts from 39.9% in 2009 andcontinuously decreases and the peak demand exceeds the total installed capacity in 2015 by reaching to 6.6%. According to the increase of peak demand the capacity reserve reaches to 24.6% in year 2018with the existing capacity as end of the year 2008.

When the sum of existing capacity and state-owned capacity under construction are considered, thecapacity reserve is 41.5% in 2009, drops to 1% in 2015 and reaches to 17.9% in 2018.

When existing capacity, state owned capacity under construction and private sector owned under

construction capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date are examinedtogether, capacity reserve is 45.4% in 2009 and decreases to 2.4% in 2018.

In spide of no shortage in the capacity reserve up to 2018, new additional capacity will be necessary to becommissioned to the system starting from 2015, by considering the necessity of a certain amount of thereserve in the system, in order not to face energy shortage in the system.


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Table 27 :Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance(Case I A) High DemandScenario1

(MW)

YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018EXISTING POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 27557 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257

HYDRO TOTAL 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829

WIND + RENEWABLE TOTAL 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432

GRAND TOTAL 41817 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517

COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING POWER PLANTS

PEAK LOAD DEMAND 29900 31246 33276 35772 38455 41339 44440 47728 51260 55053

RESERVE % 39,9 32,9 24,8 16,1 8,0 0,4 -6,6 -13,0 -19,0 -24,6

STATE-OWNED POWER PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONTHERMAL TOTAL 0 0 0 0 840 840 840 840 840 840

HYDRO TOTAL 495 966 1636 1636 1636 1636 1636 2836 2836 2836


GRAND TOTAL 495 966 1636 1636 2476 2476 2476 3676 3676 3676

EXISTING AND STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 27557 27257 27257 27257 28097 28097 28097 28097 28097 28097

HYDRO TOTAL 14324 14794 15464 15464 15464 15464 15464 16664 16664 16664


GRAND TOTAL 42312 42483 43153 43153 43993 43993 43993 45193 45193 45193

COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING AND STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTSPEAK LOAD DEMAND 29900 31246 33276 35772 38455 41339 44440 47728 51260 55053

RESERVE % 41,5 36,0 29,7 20,6 14,4 6,4 -1,0 -5,3 -11,8 -17,9

PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 348 493 1710 4837 6051 6051 6051 6051 6051 6051

HYDRO TOTAL 562 1587 2594 4413 4413 4413 4413 4413 4413 4413


GRAND TOTAL 1173 2528 5029 9976 11189 11189 11189 11189 11189 11189

STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTIONLICENCED POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 348 493 1710 4837 6891 6891 6891 6891 6891 6891HYDRO TOTAL 1057 2552 4230 6049 6049 6049 6049 7249 7249 7249


GRAND TOTAL 1668 3494 6665 11611 13665 13665 13665 14865 14865 14865

EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCEDPOWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 27905 27750 28966 32094 34147 34147 34147 34147 34147 34147

HYDRO TOTAL 14886 16381 18058 19877 19877 19877 19877 21077 21077 21077


GRAND TOTAL 43485 45011 48182 53128 55182 55182 55182 56382 56382 56382

COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR

UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTSPEAK LOAD DEMAND 29900 31246 33276 35772 38455 41339 44440 47728 51260 55053

RESERVE % 45,4 44,1 44,8 48,5 43,5 33,5 24,2 18,1 10,0 2,4


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The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity, state owned capacityunder construction and private sector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and expectedto be in service on proposed time is on Figure 11.

Figure 11 : Development of Installed Capacity Composed of Existing Power Plants + Stateowned Power Plants Under Construction + Private Sector owned Power Plants UnderConstruction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Time and PeakDemand(Case I - A) High Demand-Scenario 1

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MW

EXISTING UNDER CONSTRUCTION GRANTED BY LICENCE PEAK DEMAND

The development of total project generation composed of existing, state owned under construction andprivate sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed timetogether with energy reserve after covering the demand with these power plants are submitted on Table 28for each composition.

When the existing power plants are considered solely, energy reserve starts from 25.6% in 2009 and

decreases continuously by year, the energy demand exceeds the project generation capacity in 2013 and theenergy reserve drops to 33.7% in 2018.

When the total project generation of existing power plants and state owned power plants underconstruction are considered, the energy reserve is 25.8% in 2009, vanishes in 2013 and drops to negativevalue of -6.6% in 2014 and reaches to 29.5% in 2018.

If the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plants under construction and privatesector owned power plants under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposeddate are examined together, 27.3% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the reserve

becomes negative value of 4.2% in 2017 and drops to 11.8% in 2018.


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Table 28 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018(Case I-A) High Demand Scenario 1

(GWh) YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EXISTING POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 193827 192543 191767 192089 191676 190020 190882 192248 191029 187254HYDRO TOTAL 48032 48129 48080 48030 47981 47932 47893 47938 47938 47938


GRAND TOTAL 243574 242387 241561 241833 241371 239666 240490 241900 240681 236906

COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING POWER PLANTS

ENERGY DEMAND (HIGH DEMAND) 194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202

RESERVE % 25,6 19,6 11,9 4,2 -3,3 -10,6 -16,6 -21,9 -27,6 -33,7

STATE-OWNED POWER PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

THERMAL TOTAL 0 0 0 0 5880 5880 5880 5880 5880 5880

HYDRO TOTAL517 2481 3586 5086 5086 5086 5086 8919 8919 8919


GRAND TOTAL 517 2481 3586 5086 10966 10966 10966 14799 14799 14799

EXISTING AND STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 193827 192543 191767 192089 197556 195900 196762 198128 196909 193134

HYDRO TOTAL 48549 50610 51666 53116 53067 53018 52979 56857 56857 56857


GRAND TOTAL 244091 244868 245147 246919 252337 250632 251456 256699 255480 251705

COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING AND STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS


RESERVE % 25,8 20,8 13,5 6,4 1,1 -6,6 -12,8 -17,1 -23,2 -29,5

PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 1147 2873 8032 24605 40607 44615 44615 44615 44615 44615

HYDRO TOTAL 1113 4197 7990 12766 15719 15719 15719 15719 15719 15719


GRAND TOTAL 2858 8634 18470 40335 59291 63298 63298 63298 63298 63298

STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCEDPOWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 1147 2873 8032 24605 46487 50495 50495 50495 50495 50495

HYDRO TOTAL 1630 6678 11576 17852 20805 20805 20805 24638 24638 24638

WIND + RENEWABLE TOTAL 598 1564 2447 2964 2964 2964 2964 2964 2964 2964GRAND TOTAL 3375 11115 22056 45421 70257 74264 74264 78097 78097 78097

EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWERPLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL 194974 195416 199799 216694 238163 240515 241378 242743 241524 237749

HYDRO TOTAL 49662 54807 59657 65882 68787 68738 68699 72577 72577 72577


GRAND TOTAL 246949 253501 263617 287254 311628 313931 314754 319998 318779 315004

COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDERCONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTS


RESERVE % 27,3 25,0 22,1 23,8 24,9 17,0 9,2 3,3 -4,2 -11,8


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The annual development of the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plantsunder construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence andexpected to be in service on proposed date is on Figure 12 and the firm generation of the same capacitycomposition is on Figure 13. The demand can not be covered with the total project generation in 2017 andwith the total firm generation in 2015 with the capacities of existing power plants, state owned power

plants under construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence andexpected to be in service on proposed date.

Figure 12 : Development of Project Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + Stateowned Power Plants Under Construction + Private Sector owned Power Plants underconstruction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Time andEnergy Demand (Case I - A)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GWh

EXISTING UNDER CONSTRUCTION GRANTED BY LICENCE ENERGY DEMAND

The year in which energy shortage isexpec ted according to generation capacitytotal of ex isting, under construction andgran ted by licence capacities

The development of total firm generation capacities of existing, state owned underconstruction and private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be inservice on proposed time is submitted together with energy reserve after covering the demandwith these power plants on Table 29.

When the existing power plants are considered solely, firm energy reserve starts from 6.7% in 2009 anddecreases by year, the energy demand exceeds the firm generation capacity and the energy reserve drops to

negative value of 4.1% in 2011. The energy

capacity projection 2009-2018

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