canadian cattle industry : adapting to the changing landscape · 2017-07-17 · meat • ground...
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Canadian Cattle Industry : Canadian Cattle Industry : Adapting to the Changing Adapting to the Changing
LandscapeLandscape
Brad WildemanBrad WildemanPresidentPresident
Canadian CattlemenCanadian Cattlemen’’s Associations Association
October 2008October 2008
Industry Overview
Canadian cow inventories down 5% to 4.5 million head
Canadian Beef Cow NumbersJanuary 1
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09p
Year
Mill
ion
Hea
d
Sour c e : St a t i s t i c s C a na da
Cow slaughter increased by 16%, while 147,000 cows were exported
Canadian Slaughter Cow Marketings
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07Year
Thou
sand
Hea
d
S laughte r Expo rts
Sour c e : St a t i s t i c s C a na da , C a nFa x, AAFC
Canadian cattle inventories totaled 14.7 million head in July 2008
Canadian Total Cattle & CalvesJuly 1
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08
Year
Mill
ion
Hea
d
Sour c e : St a t i s t i c s C a na da
Expansion in the US cattle herd has been limited by drought, feed costs, and market
uncertaintyU.S. Beef Cow Inventory
January 1 - 1973 to 2010 projected
25
30
35
40
45
50
73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09p
Year
Mill
ion
Hea
d
Current Economics
Cattle on feed continues to decrease
Alberta Weekly Fed Steer Price
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51Week
Cdn
$ p
er c
wt
3 yr mo v avg 2007 2008
Break Even vs Market PriceYEARLING STEER
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Jun-
06
Sep-
06
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun-
07
Sep-
07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Dec
-08
Cdn
$ p
er c
wt
B re ak-e ve n Cas h
S o u r c e : C a n F a x T r e n d s W e s t
Canadian Cattle Exports
0
200400
600
8001,000
1,200
1,4001,600
1,800
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08p
'000
Hea
d
FeederSlaughter
So urce: Stat is t ics Canada, AAFC, CanFax
Canada slaughter cattle exports are down 17% and feeder cattle are up 33% to the U.S.
US COOL and the New Reality for Canada
US, Russia, EU and Japan largest beef importers
Top 10 Beef Importing Nations, 200726.2%
18.7%12.9%12.7%
7.1%5.6%
4.5%4.0%
2.9%1.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
United StatesRussiaEU-27Japan
MexicoKoreaEgypt
CanadaPhilippines
Taiwan
Source: USDA
World Imports(000t cwe)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CanadaChinaEU-25JapanKoreaMexicoRussiaUSA
Source: USDA FAS
The U.S. has always been our largest trading partner
They are also our largest importer
Ranked Frequency of Consumers Indicating Ranked Frequency of Consumers Indicating Product Trait is a Top 5 Purchase DeterminantProduct Trait is a Top 5 Purchase Determinant
While the U.S. is a high value market, grinds and stew beef still represent 55% of overall consumption, and home consumption
Ground42%
Stew13%
Steak20%
Beef dishes7%
Other cuts5%
Processed13%
Source: USDA "Factors Affecting U.S. Beef Consumption" October 2005
Breakdown of U.S. Per Capita Beef Consumption by Beef Type
Breakdown of U.S. Per Capita Beef Consumption by Place
Home65%
Restaurant29%
Other6%
• Beef, pork and lamb included in 2002 Farm Bill• The new revised law also includes chicken and goat
meat• Ground beef now allows “may contain” type labelling• Still applies only to retail, not food service• Reduced recordkeeping and penalty provisions• 4 categories
– USA Origin– Multiple Countries of Origin– Imported for Immediate Slaughter– Meat from Foreign Sources
• Clearly states it is not a food safety measure.
United States Country of Origin Labelling
UNITED STATES COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
• (A) From animals exclusively born, raised, and• slaughtered in the United States;• (i) From animals born and raised in Alaska or Hawaii• and transported for a period of not more than 60 days• through Canada to the United States and slaughtered in
the United States; or• (ii) From animals present in the United States on or• before July 15, 2008, and once present in the United• States, remained continuously in the United States.
Multiple Country Labelling• (b) If an animal was born, raised, and/or slaughtered in
the United States and was not imported for immediate slaughter may be designated as Product of the United States, Country X, and/or Country Y where Country X and Country Y represent the actual or possible countries of foreign origin.
• (c) If an animal was imported into the United States for immediate slaughter (with in 14 days) the resulting meat products derived from that animal shall be designated as Product of Country X and the United States.
• Recent clarification will allow mixing (b) and (c) together using the (c) label.
IMPACTS1. Uncertainty creates gridlock2. Increased segregation costs decreases
competitiveness of beef vs. other meats3. Restricted access to plants that are unwilling to
segregate beyond one or two categories4. Shift imports to food service business5. Increased costs to the entire system6. Discriminates against slaughter cattle which
virtually all come from Canada7. May fundamentally change how Canadian beef
is marketed
Trade Challenge?• Canadian Cattlemen Association along with
Canadian Pork Council have requested Gov’t of Canada to initiate a trade challenge within NAFTA and WTO
• Gov’t has indicated they are preparing their case,
• However, COOL will be around for some years, so have to adjust through superior marketing alternatives for customers.
So How Can Canada Respond?
There are only 4 options
1. Do Nothing2. Focus on domestic market3. Focus on Rest of the World4. Offer a Better Value Proposition to all
customers
1. Do Nothing
Do Nothing
• Prices discounts for Canadian cattle are already $40-70/hd.
• Packers are either refusing to slaughter Cdn. Cattle or are only slaughtering 1 day/week.
• Feeder cattle exports have virtually ceased.
• Legal remedies are 2+ years away.
2. Focus on domestic market
3. Focus on Rest of the World
Reliance on Exports
Top 10 Beef Exporting Nations as a % of Production, 2007
78.0%67.8%
64.1%35.7%
29.0%25.3%
16.5%5.4%
2.2%1.3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
New ZealandUruguayAustralia
CanadaIndiaBrazil
ArgentinaUnited States
EU-27China
Source: USDA
Canada was the third largest beef and cattle exporter in the world, and the largest exporter of grain-fed
beef.
World Beef & Veal Exporters - 2008p1,000 Tonne CWE
29.1%18.5%
10.7%8.2%
7.9%6.9%
6.3%5.0%
1.8%1.7%
4.0%
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
BrazilAustralia
CanadaUSAIndia
ArgentinaNew Zealand
UruguayMexico
EU-27Other
Sour c e : GIR A
Increased Market Access would create more exports
• Restricted market access continues to affect the value of our cattle by over $100 per head.
• Compliance with different technical requirements across multiple countries has also added significant costs to industry.
• A new WTO agreement with tariff reductions and trade liberalization would increase the value of beef exports by nearly $1 billion or 170,000 tonnes annually
• This is predicted to resulted in a $0.40/lb increase in live cattle prices (GMC)
Longer term the future looks very promising
Source: OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook
Global beef consumption is continuing to grow
CBEF Middle Eastern Beef Opportunities 42
1. A quarter of total meat consumption takes place in China
Breakdown of total meat consumption 2005
Global meat demand pulled by:Population growthEconomic growthUrbanisation
Total meat consumption bridge2005/2015: 21% consumption growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 China NAFTAS.AmericaMENA CIS EU Far EastOthers 2015
mill
ion
tons Others
Far EastEUCISMENAS.AmericaNAFTAChina
Source: GIRA
+31.0 +5.6+3.9 +3.6 +3.0 +1.5 +1.9
259.8
315.2+5.0Others12%
China24%
NAFTA15%
EU13%Japan
7%
India7%
S.America7%
CIS4%
MENA3%
Oceania3%
Africa3%
Far East2%
CBEF Middle Eastern Beef Opportunities 43
Global Beef consumption: +8 million tonne in10 years (+1.2% p.a.)
70 122
62 140
50 000
55 000
60 000
65 000
70 000
75 000
2005 China USA Japan India MENA Mexico Others 2015
'000 t cwe Beef consumption growth by major contributing countries/regions - 2005/2015
Source: GIRA
+4 775+896 +471 +425 +248 +227
+940
CBEF Middle Eastern Beef Opportunities 44
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
EU Malebeef R3US
EU Cow
AU
UY
BR
ARSource: GMC Dec 06
Figure SYN-BF 9a Cattle Producer Prices, 1995-2007 (current USD/t cwe)Cattle producer prices have increased significantly
since these data were recorded, reflecting tight supplies, rising costs and demand still holding up.
4. Offer a Better Value Proposition to all Customers
and Improve our Production Efficiencies
World Beef Consumption 2006(p)
26%
17%
14%
13%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%2%
1%8%
U.S.EU-25ChinaBrazilArgentinaMexicoRussiaIndiaJapanCanadaAustraliaOther
Source: USDA FAS
Canadian Beef Advantage
1. Maximize the value of every cut and product from every animal we sell.
2. Coordinated global marketing efforts to differentiate our beef on the basis of quality and safety.
3. Recognizing Canada’s strength will remain in the production of high quality (grain fed) beef.
4. Regaining as full a range of market access as we can in terms of both the scope of products and countries
Establishing the “Canadian Beef Advantage”
• Animal health & beef safety
• Genetics/breeds• Animal ID• Age verification capability• Production programs
(QSH)• Product quality
(consistency, palatability)• Yield and profitability• Service and Technical
support
Canadian Beef Advantage- 3 main thrusts
1. Develop a distinctive brand that consumers easily recognize domestically and internationally
2. Develop and support marketing strategies that capitalize on Canada's reputation for quality and safety
3. Develop an information sharing system to facilitate continual improvement throughout the supply chain
Based on Key Interdependent Attributes
Animal Health and Food Safety
Production Verification
Information SharingResearch
CoordinatedMarketing strategies
Information sharing for continual improvement
GradingInformation
Performance and Health info
Costumerintelligence
DNA profile
Cow/calfManagement
data
CCIA Database
Key Deliverables• Feedback information up and down the chain for
continual improvement initiatives• Provide process verification for: age, source,
movement tracking, production processes, special attributes, health and environmental protocols
• Arm our marketers with new tools to develop value-added trade opportunities both domestically and internationally.
• Identify superior performers in the area of grade and yield, performance, health, and fertility; then distribute their DNA characteristics back to the genetics industry
Potential Results for Cattle Producers
• Auditable verification system for customers• More defined breeding, feeding and
marketing strategies for producers• Improving our overall herd can result in
several hundred dollars per head by eliminating poor performers or creating more superior performers; up to $400/head.
• More coordinated and informed industry
Short Term challenges
• Slowing US economy • US COOL legislation• Legal proceedings in the US (RCalf USA)• Slow response to reopening key
international marketplaces
QUESTIONS?