canada’s housing market · canada 2.7 -32.3 -32.3 62.0 sellers’ 5.4 27 vancouver 2.6 -17.2...

Canada’s Housing MarketJune 15, 2020

BMO Capital MarketsEconomic ResearchDouglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group

For information, contact:Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist416.359.5295 • [email protected]

Contents

Summary

Scorecard

Demand

Demand Drivers

New Supply

New Unsold Supply

Resale Supply

Resale Market Balance

Prices

Valuation and Affordability

2

Summary

+ National sales rebounded 57% m/m in May, butretraced only a third of the record decline sinceFebruary, leaving sales 40% below year-ago levels

− Demand is expected to improve in the summer amidlow mortgage rates, but will be restrained by highunemployment and fragile consumer confidence

+ Sales in earlier hot-spot Ottawa rebounded in Maybut remain weak. However, the market continues totilt toward sellers, and could outperform the nationgiven stability in government employment

− National benchmark prices fell 0.1% m/m, reducingthe yearly rate to 5.3%. The decline has beentempered by an earlier drop in new listings

+ Substantial income-support and mortgage-deferralprograms will help limit forced selling and downwardpressure on prices

3

Housing Market Scorecard

Based on a house at the HPI benchmark price. 1 = Buyers’ market if sales/new listings ratio exceeds 0.5 standard deviations below normal; sellers’ market if exceeds 0.5 above normal 2 = 3 = Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, average-priced house, down payment equal to half of annual family income (about 10% today) 4 = average home price used 5 = Montreal data are n.s.a., 12-mth m.a.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, CREA, FCIQ, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates

(as of May 2020)

(monthly : as of May 2020) (partial quarter : Apr.-May 2020)

Average Existing Sales vs. Sales vs. Market Price vs. MortgagePrices Sales 10-year Average New Listings Balance 1 Family Income 2 Service Costs 3

(n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. (s.a. : 3-mth m.a.5 (s.a. : 3-mth m.a.5 (n.s.a. : ratio to (n.s.a. : % of: y/y % chng) : % chng from avg.) : %) annual family income) family income)

Canada 2.7 -32.3 -32.3 62.0 Sellers’ 5.4 27 Vancouver 2.6 -17.2 -44.2 48.6 Buyers’ 11.0 57 Victoria 3.6 -37.8 -39.0 51.5 Buyers’ 7.0 35 Calgary -1.5 -38.4 -47.6 55.8 Balanced 3.8 18 Edmonton4 -3.9 -35.8 -35.9 49.2 Buyers’ 3.3 15 Regina -2.6 -21.6 -23.8 53.9 Buyers’ 2.4 10 Saskatoon -0.2 -20.2 -24.8 46.4 Buyers’ 2.8 13 Winnipeg4 0.0 -19.2 -15.8 58.7 Balanced 3.4 16 Toronto 10.2 -40.5 -44.0 55.0 Balanced 9.8 51 Ottawa 15.8 -36.6 -22.8 81.8 Sellers’ 4.1 20 Montreal 11.7 -35.3 11.3 85.3 Sellers’ 4.4 21 Halifax4 6.6 -31.1 -14.2 87.7 Sellers’ 3.6 17

Median family income is estimated after 2017 using average annual growth in previous 10 years

4

Demand

− National sales rose 57% in May, but remain wellbelow past-decade levels

− Sales rebounded 53% m/m in Toronto, 69% inCalgary, and 92% in Montreal, but remain downfrom a year ago

− Some buyers may wait on the sidelines until thevirus is under control and the economy begins torecover in the second half of the year. Sales areunlikely to return to pre-virus levels for some time.For 2020, we expect existing home sales to fall15%, before rebounding 12% in 2021

− Oil-producing regions are expected to see evenweaker sales due to low energy prices

5

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

88 98 08 1815

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

88 98 08 18

(000s of units : s.a.)

1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association

Existing Home Sales

Canada

(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 100 = mean)

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20

(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)

10-yearmean

(monthly : as of May 2020)

+1SD

-1SD

6

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

88 98 08 181

2

3

4

5

88 98 08 18

(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)

Existing Home Sales

Vancouver


10-yearmean

(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :

100 = mean)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

17 18 19 20


Vancouver

National


+1 SD

-1SD

7

0

50

100

150

200

88 98 08 180.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Victoria


10-yearmean

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Victoria

National




100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

8

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

88 98 08 180.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Calgary


10-yearmean

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Calgary




100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

9

50

75

100

125

150

175

88 98 08 180.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Edmonton


10-yearmean

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Edmonton




100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

10

50

70

90

110

130

150

88 98 08 180.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Regina


10-yearmean

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Regina




100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD National

11

50

75

100

125

150

175

88 98 08 180.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Saskatoon


10-yearmean

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Saskatoon




100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

12


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

88 98 08 180.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Winnipeg


-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Winnipeg

10-yearmean



100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD National

13

50

75

100

125

150

88 98 08 180.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Hamilton


-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Hamilton



10-yearmean


100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

14

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

88 98 08 182

4

6

8

10

12

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Toronto


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Toronto



10-yearmean


100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

15

(quarterly : as of 2020:Q1)

0

5

10

15

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

(thousands of units)

New Condominium Sales

Toronto

mean

Source: Urbanation Inc.

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

18 19 20

(y/y % chng)

16

(quarterly : as of 2020:Q1)

0

2

4

6

8

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

(thousands of units)

Existing Condominium Sales

Toronto


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

18 19 20

(y/y % chng)

mean

17

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 06 11 16-100

0

100

200

300

18 19 20

New Home Sales

Toronto

Source: Altus Group

(000s of units : 3-mth m.a.)

High Rises

Low Rises

(3-mth m.a. : y/y % chng)

Low Rises

(monthly : as of April 2020)

High Rises

18

40

60

80

100

120

140

88 98 08 180.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Ottawa


-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Ottawa



10-yearmean


100 = mean)+1 SD

-1SD

National

19


80

90

100

110

120

03 08 13 183.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

03 08 13 18

Existing Home Sales

Montreal

1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Montreal

(000s of units : n.s.a.: 12-mth m.a.)

10-yearmean

(units per 1,000 people 1: n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. :

100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

20


80

90

100

110

120

130

03 08 13 180.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

03 08 13 18

Existing Home Sales

Quebec City

1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec

-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Quebec City

(000s of units : n.s.a.: 12-mth m.a.)

10-yearmean

(units per 1,000 people 1: n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. :

100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

21

60

80

100

120

140

160

88 98 08 180.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Halifax


-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


Halifax

10-year mean




100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

22


0

50

100

150

200

88 98 08 180.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

88 98 08 18

Existing Home Sales

Newfoundland & Labrador


-40

-20

0

20

40

17 18 19 20


NL

10-year mean



100 = mean)

+1 SD

-1SD

National

23

Demand Drivers

+ Prime-age 30-34 olds growing faster than population+ Immigration drives household formation+ 2019 Federal budget measures: interest-free govt.

loan and higher tax-free RRSP withdrawal limit+ Lower mortgage rates+ Mortgage growth turning up− High unemployment− Little pent-up demand− Poor affordability in Vancouver and Toronto− Tougher mortgage rules (Federal Jan. 2018; CMHC

May 2020)− Sales tax on foreign buyers in parts of BC and ON

24

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Employment

Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

Demand Drivers

− Plunging jobsCanada (monthly : y/y % chng : as of May 2020)

25

100

200

300

400

500

10 12 14 16 180.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

10 12 14 16 18 20

Demand Drivers

+ Population driven by immigrationCanada

Population(quarterly : y/y % chng :


Net International Migration(quarterly : 000s : 4-qtr m.s. :

as of 2020:Q1) as of 2019:Q4)

26

(rhs : 4-qtr m.s. : as of 2019:Q4)(lhs : s.a. : ann. : as of 2020:Q1) (lhs : ann. avg. of 5-yr chng in Census number of households : to 2016)

100

200

300

400

500

80

120

160

200

240

280

80 90 00 10 20

Canada (quarterly : 000s)

1 2 3

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Haver Analytics

HousingStarts 1

Demand Drivers

Household Formation

HouseholdFormation 2

Net InternationalImmigration 3

estimate 200k-210k

27

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17

Population – Age 25 to 34

Demand Drivers

+ More potential first-time buyersCanada

1 Statistics Canada Scenario M3, medium-growth, historical trends (1999/2000-2002/2003)Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

projection 1

(annual : y/y % chng : as of 2019)

28

25.7

26.8

27.6

28.2

25

26

27

28

29

2001 2006 2011 2016

Canada

Single-Person Households

Demand Drivers

+ More single-person households


(annual : % of total households : as of 2016)

29

64.8

74.1

40

50

60

70

80

90 95 00 05 10 15 20

(quarterly : percent)

Owner’s Equity as a Percent of Real Estate

1 2

Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics

Canada 1

UnitedStates 2

Demand Drivers

+ Equity for second-home purchases

(as of 2020:Q1) (as of 2020:Q1)

30

3

4

5

6

7

8

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Demand Drivers

+ Lower mortgage ratesCanada

3-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate

Sources: Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics

(monthly : percent : as of May 2020)

31

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Canada

Residential Mortgages

Sources: Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics

Demand Drivers

+ Mortgage growth has picked up(monthly : y/y % chng : as of April 2020)

32

Demand Drivers

− Tougher mortgage rules (despite recent easing)

2010/12: Insured mortgage no longer available for: Terms longer than 25 years Homes priced above $1 million If housing costs exceed 39% of gross income

Eff. Feb. 15/2016: Minimum down payment rises from 5% to 10% on portion of home price above $500k; higher capital requirements for lenders; higher fees on government-backed mortgages.

Eff. Oct/Nov 2016: higher qualifying rate on 5-year and longer fixed rate mortgages; new rules apply to portfolio-insured mortgages; closed tax loophole on sales of “principal” residences

Eff. Jan 2018: higher qualifying rate on uninsured mortgages; restrictions on bundled loans

May 2020: CMHC lowered maximum debt-service ratios and raised minimum credit scores on insured mortgages

33

1.33

1.61

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18

(quarterly : ratio to personal disposable income)

Household Debt 1

1 includes household and unincorporated business debt 2 Uses the Bank of Canada’s comparable-to-the-U.S. measure; 3Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics

Demand Drivers

− Elevated but steadier household debt

Canada 2

UnitedStates 3

(as of 2020:Q1) (as of 2020:Q1)

34

65.3

67.8

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

(quarterly : percent)

Homeownership Rate

1 2

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, BMO Capital Market Economics estimate

Demand Drivers

− Little pent-up demand

Canada 2

UnitedStates 1

(as of 2016)(n.s.a. : as of 2020:Q1)

35

New Supply

− Though rebounding in May, housing starts are expected to decline in 2020 given weaker demand

− Earlier delayed construction could put some upward pressure on house prices, but this is more of a risk in 2021 when demand turns stronger

36

(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of May 2020)

-20

0

20

40

60

10 15 20100

150

200

250

90 00 10 20

Housing Starts

Canada

1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)

Household Formation Rate 1

4

6

8

10

12

90 00 10 20

(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)

(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)

+1 SD

-1 SD

mean

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

90 00 10 20

Housing Starts

Vancouver


Household FormationRate 1

0

5

10

15

20

90 00 10 20


1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

-50

0

50

100

150

10 15 20


Vancouver

National

mean


+1 SD

-1 SD

38

0

10

20

30

40

50

72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22

Housing Construction

Vancouver

Housing Units under Construction

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics

(monthly : 000s : as of April 2020)

39


0

5

10

15

20

25

90 00 10 20

Housing Starts

Calgary


Household Formation

Rate 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

90 00 10 20



-50

0

50

100

150

10 15 20


Calgary

Nationalmean +1

SD

-1 SD

40


0

5

10

15

20

25

90 00 10 20

Housing Starts

Edmonton


Household Formation

Rate 1

0

5

10

15

20

90 00 10 20



-100

0

100

200

300

10 15 20


Edmonton

National

mean

+1 SD

-1 SD

41


0

2

4

6

8

90 00 10 200

2

4

6

8

10

90 00 10 20-50

0

50

100

150

10 15 20

(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)




Housing Starts

Winnipeg


Winnipegmean

+1 SD

-1 SD National

42


1

2

3

4

5

6

90 00 10 200

2

4

6

8

10

90 00 10 20-100

-50

0

50

100

150

10 15 20





Housing Starts

Hamilton


Hamilton

mean

+1 SD

-1 SD

National

43


10

20

30

40

50

60

90 00 10 202

4

6

8

10

12

14

90 00 10 20-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

10 15 20





Housing Starts

Toronto

Household Formation Rate 1 Toronto

National

mean

+1 SD

-1 SD

44

(monthly : 000s : as of April 2020)

0

20

40

60

80

72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22

Housing Construction

Toronto

Housing Units under Construction


45

0

10

20

30

40

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 200

10

20

30

90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Housing Starts: Singles versus Non-detached

Toronto

Singles

1 annual average change from prior censusSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

Non-detached

Household Formation

Rate 1


(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : annualized : as of April 2020)

46

0

100

200

300

400

500

03 08 13 180

2

4

6

8

10

08 13 180

20

40

60

80

04 09 14 19

Condominium Construction

Toronto

Starts


Units under Construction

Proposed/ Potential Units

(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2020:Q1)

2020:Q1 = -19.5% y/y

mean2020:Q1 = 6.0% y/y

mean

2019:Q4 = 31.7% y/y

mean

47


0

2

4

6

8

10

90 00 10 202

4

6

8

10

12

14

90 00 10 20-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

10 15 20

Housing Starts

Ottawa

(starts per 1,000 people 2

: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)



Household Formation

Rate 1

mean National+1 SD

-1 SD Ottawa

48


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

90 00 10 202

4

6

8

10

12

90 00 10 20-40

-20

0

20

40

60

10 15 20

Housing Starts

Montreal






mean

Montreal

National

+1 SD

-1 SD

49


0

2

4

6

8

10

90 00 10 202468

1012141618

90 00 10 20-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

10 15 20

Housing Starts

Quebec City






mean

QuebecCity

National+1 SD

-1 SD

50


0

1

2

3

4

5

90 00 10 202

4

6

8

10

12

14

90 00 10 20-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

10 15 20

Housing Starts

Halifax





HouseholdFormation Rate 1

mean

Halifax

National

+1 SD

-1 SD

51

New Home Inventories

+ Inventories remain normal on a per-capita basis

+ GVA and GTA detached and condo inventories were low prior to the pandemic, which will temper downward pressure on prices stemming from the drop in demand

+ Ottawa’s condo inventories remain low, which should support prices during the pandemic

− Condo inventory was high in Edmonton and Calgary even before the pandemic and oil shock

52

68

10121416182022

92 02 120.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

92 02 122

4

6

8

10

12

14

92 02 120.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

92 02 12


CanadaNew Housing Units 1

thousands

1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2

Detached

Multiples

Detached

Multiples

(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)

Detachedmean

Multiplesmean

mean

+1 SD

-1 SD

53

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

92 02 120

1

2

3

4

5

92 02 120

1

2

3

4

92 02 12


VancouverNew Housing Units 1


thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

92 02 12


Detached

MultiplesMultiples

Multiples mean

Detachedmean

Detached

+1 SD

-1 SD

mean

54

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

92 02 12


CalgaryNew Housing Units 1



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

92 02 12


mean

Detached

MultiplesMulti.MultI. mean

DetachedmeanDetached

+1 SD

-1 SD

55


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

92 02 120.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

92 02 12


EdmontonNew Housing Units 1



0

1

2

3

4

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

92 02 12

mean

Detached

Multiples

Multiples

Multi.mean

Detached mean

Det.+1 SD

-1 SD

56

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

92 02 12



WinnipegNew Housing Units 1



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

92 02 120.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

92 02 12

mean

Detached

MultiplesMultiples

Multiples mean

Detachedmean

Detached

+1 SD

-1 SD

57


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

92 02 12


HamiltonNew Housing Units 1



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

92 02 120.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

92 02 12

mean

Detached

MultiplesMultiples

Multiples mean

Detachedmean

Detached

+1 SD

-1 SD

58

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

92 02 12


TorontoNew Housing Units 1



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

92 02 12


mean

Detached

Multiples

Multiples

Multiples mean

Detachedmean

Detached+1 SD

-1 SD

59

0

5

10

15

20

25

00 05 10 15 200

5

10

15

20

25

00 05 10 15 20

Remaining Inventory 1

1 includes all unsold units under construction, pre-construction, and completedSource: Altus Group


Toronto

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

00 05 10 15 20

Total Low Rises High Rises

(monthly : 000s of units : as of April 2020)

mean

mean

mean

60

0

5

10

15

20

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

New Condominium Inventories

Toronto

Unsold Inventory of New Condos



2020:Q1 = -1.3% y/y

mean

61

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

New Condominium Vacancy Rate

Toronto

Unsold Inventory as a Share of Total Active Units


mean


62

0

5

10

15

20

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

New Condominium Quarterly Supply

Toronto

Unsold Inventory as a Share of Sales 1

1 quarters required to sell inventory at current sales rateSource: Urbanation Inc.

mean

(quarterly : ratio : as of 2020:Q1)

63

0

50

100

150

200

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

New Condominium Sales-to-Supply Ratio

Toronto

mean

Sales as a Share of Supply 1

1 supply is approximately unsold inventory plus salesSource: Urbanation Inc.

(quarterly : percent : as of 2020:Q1)

64

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

92 02 12


OttawaNew Housing Units 1



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

92 02 12


mean

Detached

Multiples Multiples

Multi. mean

Detachedmean

Det.+1 SD

-1 SD

65

0

1

2

3

4

5

92 02 120.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

92 02 120

1

2

3

4

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

92 02 12


MontrealNew Housing Units 1




mean

Detached

MultiplesMultiples

Multi.mean

Detachedmean

Detached

+1 SD

-1 SD

66


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

92 02 120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

92 02 12


Quebec CityNew Housing Units 1



mean

Detached

Multiples

Multiples

Multi.mean

Detachedmean

Det.

+1 SD

-1 SD

67


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

92 02 120.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

92 02 12


HalifaxNew Housing Units 1



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

92 02 120.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

92 02 12

mean

Detached

Multiples

Multiples

Multi. mean

Detachedmean

Det.+1 SD

-1 SD

68

Resale Supply

+ New listings have fallen nearly as much as demand, alleviating downward pressure on prices

+ Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa listings are very low

+ Winnipeg and Quebec City new listings were elevated, but have fallen sharply of late

69

40

50

60

70

80

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Resale Home Supply

Canada

10-year mean

(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of May 2020)

70

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Vancouver

10-year mean


71

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Calgary

10-year mean


72


1

2

3

4

5

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Edmonton

10-year mean

73


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Winnipeg

10-year mean

74


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Hamilton

10-year mean

75

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Toronto

10-year mean


76

0

5

10

15

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

2020:Q1 = -1.2% y/y

mean


Total Listings of Resale Condos

Existing Condominium Listings

Toronto(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2020:Q1)

77

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Ottawa

10-year mean


78

3

4

5

6

7

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Montreal

10-yearmean

(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. : as of May 2020)

79

(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. : as of May 2020)

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Quebec City

10-yearmean

80


0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 20

New Listings


Resale Home Supply

Halifax

10-year mean

81

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22

Resale Home SupplyVery Few Distressed Properties on the Market in Canada

(percent)

1 2 3 (US / Canada)Sources: Canadian Bankers Association, U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association

90-Day+ Mortgage Delinquency Rate

United States

(lhs) 2

Canada(lhs) 1

(monthly : as of January 2020) (quarterly : as of 2020:Q1)

Ratio(rhs) 3

82

Resale Market Balance

+ National market was tight before the pandemic, but the active supply of homes of 5.6 months (at the current sales rate) indicates a balanced market

+ Sales/new listings ratio of 58.8% is still above the long-run norm (54%), indicating a slight sellers’ market

+ Ottawa, Halifax, Montreal, and Quebec City are sellers’ markets based on sales/new listings ratio

83

2

4

6

8

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Months’ Supply

Canada

Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales


mean

(monthly : s.a. : as of May 2020)

buyers’ market+1 standard deviation

-1 standard deviation sellers’ market

84

0

5

10

15

20

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Months’ Supply

British Columbia



mean




85

0

5

10

15

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Months’ Supply

Alberta



mean




86

0

4

8

12

16

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Months’ Supply

Saskatchewan



mean




87

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Months’ Supply

Manitoba



mean




88

0

2

4

6

8

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Months’ Supply

Ontario



mean




89

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Months’ Supply

Quebec



mean




90

0

5

10

15

20

04 09 14 190

5

10

15

20

25

04 09 14 190

5

10

15

20

04 09 14 194

6

8

10

12

14

16

04 09 14 19

Months’ Supply

The Atlantic ProvincesActive Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales

SD = standard deviationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

New Brunswick

(mon. : s.a. : as of May ’20)

Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland& Labrador

mean

buyers’market+1 SD

-1 SD sellers’market

91

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

Sales-to-New Listings

Canada


Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings

mean

(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of May 2020)

sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation

-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market

92

20

40

60

80

100

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Vancouver



mean

sellers’ market+0.5 × standard

deviation

-0.5 × standard deviation

buyers’ market


93


Calgary



30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


mean


deviation


94



Edmonton



30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

mean


deviation


95



Winnipeg



20

40

60

80

100

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

mean



96



Hamilton



15

30

45

60

75

90

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

mean


deviation


97


Toronto



20

40

60

80

100

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


mean sellers’ market+0.5 × standard

deviation


98

0

1

2

3

4

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Resale Condominium Quarterly Supply

Toronto

1 quarters required to sell listed units at current sales rateSource: Urbanation Inc.

Listed Units as a Share of Sales 1

mean

(quarterly : ratio : as of 2020:Q1)

99


Ottawa



20

40

60

80

100

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


mean



100


Montreal

Source: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec


25

50

75

100

125

150

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of May 2020)

mean


-0.5 × SD buyers’ market

101

(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of May 2020)


Quebec City

Source: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec


25

50

75

100

125

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

mean


deviation

-0.5 × SD buyers’ market

102



Halifax



20

40

60

80

100

120

88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 20

mean



103

0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.90.3 0.6 0.3 0.3

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

Rental Vacancy Rates

Vancouver(percent)

1 2


Apartments 1

(as of October 2019) (as of October 2019)

(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2

(October of given year)

104

5.7

2.11.0 1.1

4.94.4

3.82.7

0.9

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Calgary(percent)

Apartments 1

1 2

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)



105

(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)

(annual through 2013, then semiannual)

3.7

2.5

1.1

2.3

5.3

6.8 6.9

4.2

2.5

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Edmonton(percent)

Apartments 1

1 2


Condominium Rentals 2


106

1.81.3 1.5

2.61.8

2.8 2.9

1.6

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 16 17 18 191 2

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Winnipeg condo rental data for October 2015 is not available.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18(as of October 2019)


Winnipeg(percent)

Apartments 1

(as of October 2019)



107




0.4 0.5 0.6 0.90.2

0

2

4

6

8

15 16 17 18 191 2

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Hamilton condo rental data begins in October 2015.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Hamilton(percent)

Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2


108

1.1 1.21.8

1.31.8

1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Toronto(percent)

Apartments 1

1 2




109

0

2

4

6

8

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Resale Condominium Vacancy Rate

Toronto

Listed Units as a Share of Total Units


mean


110

0

20

40

60

80

100

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Resale Condominium Sales-to-Listings Ratio

Toronto


mean

Sales as a Share of Listed Units


111

1.4

3.2 3.6

1.72.6

1.1

2.93.4

0.9

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Ottawa(percent)



1 2



112

2.8 2.7 2.73.4 3.0 3.1

1.8 1.9 1.8

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191 2


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18(as of October 2019)


Montreal(percent)

Apartments 1




113



2.3 2.2

5.9

3.24.0

4.83.9

2.51.4

0

2

4

6

8

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191 2


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18


Quebec City(percent)



114



1 2

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Halifax condo rental data begins in October 2016.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

3.8 3.9 4.1 3.8

0

2

4

6

8

16 17 18 19


Halifax(percent)



115

Prices

− Prices were rising in most regions prior to the pandemic, but fell 0.1% in May and 0.6% in April. The national benchmark is up 5.3% y/y. We expect prices to decline moderately in coming months due to the sharp decline in sales. Fewer listings and government income-support measures will provide some offsetting support

+ Ottawa prices up 15.7% y/y after rising 1.0% m/m

+ Montreal prices up 11.1% y/y

+ Toronto prices up 9.5% y/y

+ Vancouver prices up 2.9 % y/y

− Calgary prices down 2.3% y/y

116

(as of May 2020)

-10

0

10

20

30

06 11 16100

150

200

250

300

05 10 15 201 2

Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association(as of April 2020)

Prices

Canada(monthly)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

88 98 08 18

New HomePrice Index 2

(y/y % chng)

MLS HomePrice Index 1

(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

117

Prices

Vancouver

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2

Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association


(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

100

150

200

250

300

05 10 15 20-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

06 11 16(as of May 2020) (as of April 2020)

118

-20

0

20

40

60

80

06 11 16

Prices

Calgary

-20

0

20

40

60

80

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2



(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

100

150

200

250

05 10 15 20(as of May 2020) (as of April 2020)

119

(as of May 2020)1 2


100

120

140

160

180

200

220

05 10 15 20-20

0

20

40

60

80

06 11 16(as of April 2020)

-20

0

20

40

60

88 98 08 18

Prices

Edmonton


(June 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

120

Prices

Regina

-10

0

10

20

30

40

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2



(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

100

150

200

250

300

05 10 15 20-20

0

20

40

60

80


121

-5

0

5

10

15

20

88 98 08 18-5

0

5

10

15

20

05 10 15 20(as of April 2020)1 2

Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

05 10 15 20(as of April 2020)

Prices

Winnipeg

Teranet HomePrice Index 1

(June 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

122

(as of April 2020)(as of April 2020)

-505

1015202530

05 10 15 201 2


50

100

150

200

250

300

05 10 15 20-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

88 98 08 18

Prices

Hamilton


(June 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

123

Prices

Toronto

-40

-20

0

20

40

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2



(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

100

150

200

250

300

05 10 15 20-10

0

10

20

30

40


124

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Existing Single Family Home Prices

TorontoHome Price Index Benchmark – Existing Single Family


200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

(C$ 000s : n.s.a.) (y/y % chng)


125

-10

0

10

20

30

40

06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Existing Condominium Prices

TorontoHome Price Index Benchmark – Existing Condominiums


0

200

400

600

800

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

(C$ 000s : n.s.a.) (y/y % chng)


126

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

08 10 12 14 16 18 20

2020:Q1 = 8.8% y/y

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

New Condominium Prices

TorontoAverage Price per Square Foot


Sold Unsold

(quarterly : C$ : as of 2020:Q1)

2020:Q1 = 10.6% y/y

127

(quarterly : C$ : as of 2020:Q1)

2020:Q1 = 8.1% y/y

0

200

400

600

800

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Resale Condominium Prices

TorontoAverage PSF


128

(as of April 2020)(as of May 2020)

Prices

Ottawa

-5

0

5

10

15

20

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2



(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

100

125

150

175

200

225

05 10 15 20-5

0

5

10

15

20

06 11 16

129

Prices

Montreal

-5

0

5

10

15

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2



(January 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

05 10 15 20-4

0

4

8

12

16


130

(as of April 2020)(as of April 2020)1 2


-5

0

5

10

15

05 10 15 2080

100

120

140

160

180

200

05 10 15 20-5

0

5

10

15

88 98 08 18

Prices

Quebec City


(June 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

131

(as of April 2020)(as of April 2020)1 2


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

05 10 15 2080

100

120

140

160

180

05 10 15 20-5

0

5

10

15

88 98 08 18

Prices

Halifax


(June 2005 = 100)


(y/y % chng)


(y/y % chng)

(monthly)

132

(as of May 2020) (as of April 2020)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

06 11 1650

100

150

200

250

05 10 15 20

Prices

Newfoundland & Labrador

-10

0

10

20

30

88 98 08 18


(y/y % chng)

1 2


AverageHome Price 1

(s.a. : January 2005 = 100)

AverageHome Price 1

(n.s.a. : y/y % chng)

(monthly)

133

Valuation and Affordability

+ Valuations and affordability were healthy in most regions, and some expected weakness in prices and low interest rates should provide further support

+ National prices between 3-to-4 times income outside Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria; normal

+ Outside Vancouver and Toronto, typical mortgage payment consumes less than one-fifth of median household income

− Vancouver and Toronto detached markets are well out-of-reach of typical family. But affordability was improving in Vancouver due to lower prices

− Toronto condo market becoming less affordable, offset by some improvement in detached segment

134

(as of 2020:Q1)(as of 2020:Q1)

Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, CREA

33%

13%7%

16%

-25

0

25

50

88 93 98 03 08 13 181 Ratio of average existing home price to per-capita personal income (adjusted to make it more comparable to U.S. income; as a sum of household income, property

income and current transfers received, then divided by population age 15+), relative to long-term average;2 Ratio of median existing single-family house price to median family income, relative to long-term average;

(quarterly : ratio : s.a.)

House Price-to-Income Ratio relative to long-term Average

Valuation

Canada

overvalued

undervalued

UnitedStates 2

Canada 1

135

20202001 2005 2019 Apr.- % chg since 2005Q4 Q1 Q2 May Trend 2 Price

Vancouver 5.3 6.5 11.0 11.0 165 Toronto 4.2 5.0 9.2 9.8 156 Victoria 3.8 4.7 6.9 7.0 100 Montreal 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.4 110 Canada ex Vancouver, Toronto 2.7 3.3 4.4 4.3 101 Ottawa 2.5 2.8 3.7 4.1 102 Calgary 2.8 2.9 3.9 3.8 71 Halifax ³ 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.6 89 Winnipeg ³ 1.7 2.1 3.5 3.4 145 Saskatoon 2.1 2.1 2.9 2.8 144

(quarterly)

Price-to-Median Family Income Ratios 1

1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years (for a house of average home price in 2004 or earlier, and HPI benchmark price after 2004) 2 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±0.1) 3 = average home price used onlySources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association

Valuation

Regional

2017

136

39%

30%26%

33%

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

88 93 98 03 08 13 18

(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2020:Q1)

Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, average-priced house, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today). Household income measured as personal income per labour force member.Sources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association

Average Mortgage Payments

Affordability

Canada

meanIf R2 ppt

137

Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income 1 (about 10% today) for a house of average home price in 2004 or earlier, and HPI benchmark price after 2004 1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years 2 = average home price used only 3 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±1) 4 = weighted average house price used onlyShading denotes that housing costs consume more than 39% of income, assuming that 8% of income is needed to pay for property taxes, heating and condo fees. After July 2012, banks generally cannot provide an insured mortgage to potential buyers who breach this threshold.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, FCIQ, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates

2017

Apr.-May Apr.-May2001:Q4 2005:Q1 2019:Q2 2020 Trend 3 2020

Mortgage Rate 5.9% 4.9% 3.0% 2.6% If 4.6%Vancouver 37 41 59 57 71 Toronto 28 31 49 51 62 Victoria 25 29 36 35 44 Hamilton ² 17 20 32 32 40 Montreal 14 19 20 21 26 Canada ex Vancouver, Toronto 17 19 22 21 26 Ottawa 15 16 18 20 24 Calgary 17 17 19 18 22 Halifax ² 15 16 17 17 21 Winnipeg ² 9 11 17 16 19 Edmonton 14 13 15 13 16 Saskatoon 12 11 14 13 15 Quebec City ⁴ 10 12 14 12 15

Affordability

RegionalMortgage Payments as a % of Median Family Income 1 (quarterly)

138


56%

70%

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today) on a house of average price (before 2005) or benchmark price (2005 onwards). Median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates


Affordability

Vancouver

mean

If R2 ppt

2017

139

37%

49%

61%

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today) on a house of average price (before 2005) or benchmark price (2005 onwards). Median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates

2017



Affordability

Toronto

mean

If R2 ppt

140

Apr.-May Apr.-May2005:Q1 2019:Q2 2020 Trend 2 2020

Mortgage Rate 4.9% 3.0% 2.6% If 4.6%

Vancouver – Single Family 60 86 83 102

Vancouver – Single Family 1-Storey 47 66 64 79

Toronto – Single Family 35 55 56 69

Toronto – Single Family 1-Storey 31 48 49 60

Vancouver – Condo 26 39 37 46

Toronto – Condo 19 32 34 42

Affordability

Vancouver and Toronto

Mortgage Payments as a % of Median Family Income 1

Worth noting is that the median income of families owning detached properties is well above that of the median income of all households, according to the 2011 National Household Survey, suggesting that the detached market is more affordable than implied by our measure.Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, benchmark house price, down payment equal to half of annual income 1 (about 10% today); MLS benchmark home price used after 2004, average price used otherwise.1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years 2 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±1)Shading denotes that housing costs consume more than 39% of income, assuming that 8% of income is needed to pay for property taxes, heating and condo fees. After July 2012, banks generally cannot provide an insured mortgage to potential buyers who breach this threshold.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates

(quarterly)

2017

141

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canada’s housing market · canada 2.7 -32.3 -32.3 62.0 sellers’ 5.4 27 vancouver 2.6 -17.2...

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