canada 2020 speakers series: david goldwyn on creating a stronger north american market for natural...

8/7/2019 Canada 2020 Speakers Series: David Goldwyn on Creating a Stronger North American Market for Natural Gas

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Canada 2020

President, Goldwyn Global Strategies

Wednesday, April 6th, 2011


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TITLE SPONSOR

SUSTAINING SPONSORS

and the many individual donors to the Canada 2020 Founders' Circle

For more information visit www.canada2020.ca


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Canada 2020: Creating a

Stronger Market for Northmer can a ura as

David L. Goldwyn

Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC

pr 6, 2011


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Am le North American Nat Gas Su l

Climate, Energy Security Reasons to Increase Demand

North American Market Limited Regulatory/Climate Policy Will Push Power Gen Use Transportation will be a niche play

LNG Exports An Obvious Choice, but Big Challenges

Creative Commercial Arrangements Can Strengthen Markets

Governments Can Help: Time to Refresh the Trilateral/Bilateral

Energy Agenda


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Source: Encana


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Source: EIA 2011


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Source: Energy Velocity,B&V Analysis


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Source: IFP 2009


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Source: Bentek 2011


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Source: Bentek 2011


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Source: Bentek 2011


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Source: EIA 2010


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Consumption

Source: Resources for theFuture 2010


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Source: IEA 2010


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Policy Drivers: EPA Guidelines

Utility demand for coal is estimated to drop by 116 milliontons, or 12%.

261 million MWh decline in coal fired generation

If this is offset by a commensurate increase in gas fired

generation, U.S. gas consumption would have to increase by. .

All else remaining equal, this implies a 6% increase in U.S.

consump on o na ura gas y .


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CO2 Emissions

Source: Resources for theFuture 2010


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Policy Drivers: EPA Regulations

Source: Bernstein Research 2010


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LNG: An Obvious Answer for USand Canada, But.

Sustains Dry Gas Supply/Reduces Volatility

But Competition for supply

Licensing/Siting issues

Public education a /Links to Infrastructure


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Will Henry Hub/West Coast Differential Hold?

Will Buyers Take Price Risk?

Can Buyers and Sellers Share Risk?

Maybe Utilities Get in Too?

Industry

Raise Standards


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The US - Canada Bilateral/Trilateral Agenda:

Time to refresh the trilateral/bilateral energy agenda

Clean Energy Dialogue

Time to focus on the Big Rocks

Supply

Demand

Public Education


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Conclusion

Gas can be major economic/climate boon

Low price will drive new demand

, -driver

Price risk sharing arrangements can drive demand/exports

Public acce tance will be fundamental


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Keynote

David Goldw n, President, Goldw n Global Strate ies

Panellists

Robert Johnston, Director, Global Energy & NaturalResources, Eurasia Group

ou s uger, ce- res en , a ura as, e ana a

Moderator Don Newman, Chairman, Canada 2020 Advisory Board


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TITLE SPONSOR

SUSTAINING SPONSORS

and the many individual donors to the Canada 2020 Founders' Circle

For more information visit www.canada2020.ca


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Canada 2020

President, Goldwyn Global StrategiesWednesday, April 6th, 2011

canada 2020 speakers series: david goldwyn on creating a stronger north american market for natural...

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