8/20/2019 Can he win?

1/51

CANH E

WIN?

8/20/2019 Can he win?

2/51

Executive Summary

• Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made

America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as ateenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before

the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate,

Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.

• If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can

win the White House

• The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates don’t win

• The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes

to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates

• Ted Cruz’s leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary

voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare,

Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of 

votes necessary to win a crowded primary

• Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets

8/20/2019 Can he win?

3/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign almost won.

Romney lost by only 428,000 votes in just five states:

Ohio 103,000

Florida 70,000

Colorado 113,000

New Mexico 76,000

Nevada 66,000

8/20/2019 Can he win?

4/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign almost won.

• He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a

wedge issue

• Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters

he needed

• Social media amateurs

• Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for 

message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation

• NO GROUND GAME – Moderates don’t attract block -walkers

• Terrible performance with Hispanics

8/20/2019 Can he win?

5/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible team almost won Florida.

• In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47%

supported Romney

• Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and 2004.

• Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes

• There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida

• Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have

won Florida

8/20/2019 Can he win?

6/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to record

African-American turnout.

• African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama

• In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for 

Obama

• In 2004, African-Americans made up 10%

• Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohio’s total population

• Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate hadreverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 – Republicans would

have won

• Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win

Ohio

8/20/2019 Can he win?

7/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia.

• Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank 

from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012

• Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4%

to 2.5% by 2012

• Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites

(66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower

than among Hispanics (71.9%)

• If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) – and nothing else

changes – the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016

8/20/2019 Can he win?

8/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because his

Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.

• 46% of state is Hispanic

• Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or 

81,000 votes

• Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got

40% in 2004

• Romney’s disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico

former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%

• Rafael “Ted” Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional

Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romney’s

81,000 loss margin

8/20/2019 Can he win?

9/51

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because his

Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.

• Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016

• Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004

• Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes

Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target

• Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry

state

• Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state

8/20/2019 Can he win?

10/51

Looking to 2016

242 296

8/20/2019 Can he win?

11/51

Hillary 2016 Strategy

• MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER 

• Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can

• Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American

vote and potential losses with Hispanics

8/20/2019 Can he win?

12/51

Republican Must Do’s for 2016

• Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and

Nevada - Target George Bush’s average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida)

• Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4% favoring women

• Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues

and targeting evangelicals

8/20/2019 Can he win?

13/51

Republicans win with wedge and magnet

that drive their voters to turnout

issues

Reagan 1980: The Economy and National Security

Bush (Atwater  – South Carolina Conservative) 1988:

Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+

Bush (Baker  – Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue

Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House

Midterms 2010: ObamaCare

Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration

Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican

8/20/2019 Can he win?

14/51

Moderate Candidates are Losers

More Conservative  c •

GW Bush (2000)"

GW Bush (2004)"

Reagan (1980)"

Reagan (1984)"

McCain (2008)"

Romney (2012)"

GHW Bush (1988)"

GHW Bush (1992)"

Ford (1976)"

Dole (1996)"

0" 12" 23" 35" 46" 58"

• Rove won for Bu•sh by driving Evangelical turnout – Now he loses by doing the opposite= winning campaign 

• Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagan’s help

8/20/2019 Can he win?

15/51

The Establishment Never Learns

• Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections

• Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are

must-haves in order to drive turnout and win

• Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been:

- Willie Horton/flag burning in 1988

- Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in 2000

- ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014

• In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantageof the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare

8/20/2019 Can he win?

16/51

The Establishment Never Learns

• For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that

forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue:

- National Security

- Immigration

- Future Not Past

- Common Core

- Foreign Money

8/20/2019 Can he win?

17/51

Ted Cruz is the only leading candidate

who

on

has a consistent/strong record

the top Clinton wedge issues

Money

Immigration and Common Core Very Important

Common

CoreImmigration

Future

 Not Past

 National

Security

Foreign

CRUZ

BUSH  NO NO NO NO NO

HUCKABEE  NO -  NO

PAUL  NO

RUBIO  NO

WALKER   NO NO

8/20/2019 Can he win?

18/51

White Vote Shrank in 2012

8/20/2019 Can he win?

19/51

Evangelicals are not voting

Evan euca IVoter sNumberof 

# of   Evenfe l l oe l  Voters

%  o f   Eleotorete

# of CVAPE v angeli cal s

# of E v ang eli cal Vot ers who

sta  ed tiome

22.1million

21%

74.5million

52.4million

25.7 million

21%

79.4 million

53.7million

30.2 million

23%

83.2million

53million

29.7million

23%

86.7 million

57

million

8/20/2019 Can he win?

20/51

In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religious

voter growth to new highs –  but thatslowed and stopped

progress

POPULATION-0.1 .

.•·················

.·

.·•

.·:

·····················

···························································································································

...

...

:

../.............

...........

-0.3

.CONSERVATIVES..

..... ...

. .

.::

.

.•

:-0.4   .   ···············

·•·······

....

...........•.-0.5 ·······

·········

·········RELIGIOUS.

0

··············

·······

.

'96

.

.l .:•••O

-0.6

'04 '08 '12

The only time Republicans got more of the popular vote since 1988.

8/20/2019 Can he win?

21/51

WHERE WE ARE

TODAY

8/20/2019 Can he win?

22/51

GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II

8/20/2019 Can he win?

23/51

METHODOLOGY

! 739 autodial phone interviews

conducted nationwideamong likely

Republican primary voters

! Conducted May 15-16, 2015

! Margin of error is +/- 3.6%

! Comparativedata resultspulled

from February 2015 polling

8/20/2019 Can he win?

24/51

OF NOTE

! This is a baseline study of Republican

 primaryvoter attitudes. The Republican

field and attitudesof primary voters are

dynamicand we fully expect the underlying

structure of the electorate to continue

evolving in the coming months.

! Successfulvote coalitions among the early

 primaryand caucuses may likely only

require 20-40%support.

! This survey was conducted by TargetPoint

Consulting for its own use and was not

conducted on behalf of any candidate or

associated organization.

8/20/2019 Can he win?

25/51

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND

CONSIDERATION

8/20/2019 Can he win?

26/51

Pleaserate each candidateon a 7-point scale.Press1 if you would almost certainlyvote for that candidate. Press2 if you would

stronglyconsider supporting that candidate. Press7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press6 if it is unlikely you would

ever support that candidate. Press4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any numberfrom

1-7 to ratethese candidates.If you don’t knowthe candidate well enoughto rate them,Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidatewere

considered ‘Aware,’ while those who selected 9 were considered ‘Not Aware.’Total

February

Awareness1-7 Aware 9 Not Aware

94JEB BUSH

MIKEHUCKABEE

92

RAND PAUL 89

CHRIS CHRISTIE 89

MARCO RUBIO 85

TED CRUZ 80

-DONALD TRUMP

RICK PERRY

86

RICK SANTORUM 83

SCOTT WALKER  75

BEN CARSON 70

LINDSEYGRAHAM

-

BOBBY JINDAL 69

CARLYFIORINA

50

JOHN KASICH 5957 43

66 35

69 32

70 30

75 25

75 26

81 19

82 19

84 17

84 16

86 14

86 14

90 10

91 9

94 7

CANDIDATE AWARENESS

8/20/2019 Can he win?

27/51

 Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainlyvote for that candidate. Press 2 if you

would stronglyconsider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is

unlikely you wouldever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral.However, you can use any number from 1-7 to

rate these candidates.If you don’t  know the candidatewell enoughto rate them,Press 9.

Mean

Scores1 Certainly Consider  2-3 Consider  4+9 Neutral 5-6 Not Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider 

MARCO RUBIO 2.99

SCOTT WALKER  3.01

JEB BUSH 3.57

MIKE HUCKABEE 3.48

TED CRUZ 3.51

BEN CARSON 3.31

RAND PAUL 3.80

RICK PERRY

3.90

3.88BOBBY JINDAL

RICK SANTORUM 4.08

CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.42

CARLY FIORINA 4.09

JOHN KASICH 4.00

DONALD TRUMP 4.91

LINDSEY GRAHAM 4.63

*Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration.

3 13 45 17 22

5 15 29 16 35

7 15 59 11 9

5 20 52 11 13

6 23 31 18 22

6 26 39 16 13

6 26 46 12 9

6 31 38 15 11

11 34 26 17 13

19 29 37 8 8

15 33 31 10 12

18 32 24 14 12

18 33 21 13 15

24 29 37 5 5

22 39 24 9 7

CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION

8/20/2019 Can he win?

28/51

Comparing the total awarenessof each candidateto their 1-3 consideration score we see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom leftquadrant that are less unknown.

CONSIDERATION

CONVERSION RATE

WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATES WELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES100Paul Bush

Huckabee

Cruz

Christie

Perry

Santorum

90 TrumpRubio

80

Walker Graham JindalCarson70

Fiorina60

Kasich

50

40

30

20

10

LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Total Consideration% 1-3

*Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll anddoes not account for 

candidates with endof May andJune planned announcements

*Conversion rate was calculated by

dividing the total consideration (1-3)

 score by total awareness 1-7.

   T  o   t  a   l   A  w  a  r  e  n  e  s  s   %

Rubio 71%

Walker 71%

Carson 64%

Cruz 57%

Huckabee 55%

Bush 54%

Paul 50%

Jindal 46%

Perry 45%

Santorum 40%

Kasich 39%

Fiorina 38%

Christie 34%

Trump 24%

Graham 23%

Unannounced Candidates

Announced Candidates

HIGHESTCONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS

8/20/2019 Can he win?

29/51

 Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.

0 0

Rubio Walker Bush Huckabee Cruz Carson Paul Perry Jindal Santorum Christie Fiorina Kasich Trump* Graham*

*not included in February Poll 

   F   E   B   R   U   A   R

   Y

   M   A   Y

16

20

23 22

25

13

33

29

34 3335

32

43

37

4443

47 4748

43

51 50

54

51

58

53

61

54

COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS

8/20/2019 Can he win?

30/51

 Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.

FIORINA +12

RUBIO +7

CRUZ +5

PAUL +1

CARSON 0

HUCKABEE-1

-1

-1

JINDAL

KASICH

-3

-3

BUSH

SANTORUM

CHRISTIE-4

WALKER -5

PERRY-6

*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not i ncluded in February Poll 

CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION

8/20/2019 Can he win?

31/51

reasonable compromisesto get th ingsdone  , or should 

compromise  , even if thingsdon’t  get done in the short-run?

Social Conservative

Mainstream

Get Things principles

44

Could Support Any

Libertarian

Unsure

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES

Generally speaking

what type of

candidate do you prefer nominating?

FEBRUARY 29

MAY 28

24

25

20Tea Party

16

14

15

5

6

8

9

 Do you think that the Republicannominee, if elected president,

 should reach out to Democrats and work to find 

they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not 

Stand by

Done

56

In our February poll, the partywas

split on this issue.

8/20/2019 Can he win?

32/51

 How would you describe your views in thearea of social/fiscal issues?

51

41

3432

17

12

5 32 1

VeryCons

SomewhatCons

Moderate SomewhatLib

VeryLib

17

#

   S   O   C   I   A   L

   F   I   S   C   A   L

• 30% of Republican primary voters

are both very socially and very

fiscally conservative.

• 70% are both socially conservative

and fiscally conservative.

• 16% are socially moderate or liberal

and fiscally conservative.

ISSUE PREFERENCES

8/20/2019 Can he win?

33/51

Below is the politicalbreakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent the

clusters from our Februarypollingand the red circlesrepresent where the clustersare now.

Social

Tea Party 17%

Conservatives

19% ModeratesUncommitted

Partisans

Percentage of cluster that chose “get thingsdone”

 Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster.

   P  e  r  c  e  n   t  a  g  e  o   f  c   l  u  s   t  e  r   t   h  a

   t   i  s   b  o   t   h

  v

  e  r  y

   f   i  s  c  a   l   l  y

  a  n   d 

  s  o  c   i  a   l   l  y

  c  o  n  s  e  r  v  a   t   i  v  e

Since our February Poll, we no longer

conservatives. Our February group of 

We have also seen the equilibrium of 

16%

Conservatives see a cluster of mainstream

“establishment” voters has fragmented into

what we show as mainstream

16% moderates and pragmaticpartisans.

the party move slightly lessUndecided conservativeand more pragmatic.

8%Dissatisfied 10%

14% Mainstream

Moderates Pragmatic

UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING

8/20/2019 Can he win?

34/51

We looked at each candidate’  s total consideration score (1-3) and  subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potentialgrowth of each

candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.

Current Derived Ballot Potential Growth

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

TED CRUZ

MIKE HUCKABEE

JEB BUSH

BEN CARSON

RAND PAUL

RICK PERRY

BOBBY JINDAL

RICK SANTORUM

CHRIS CHRISTIE

CARLY FIORINA

JOHN KASICH

DONALD TRUMP

LINDSEY GRAHAM

*Candidates arerank ordered by potential growth.

9 52

9 44

5 43

9 41

11 40

8 39

6 38

35

1 32

30

3 260 25

20

18

0 16

POTENTIAL GROWTH

8/20/2019 Can he win?

35/51

We lookedat the top derived ballot scoresbased on voter preference for a particular nominee:

 social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top 6 

choices and the number of undecided votersbased on these nominee types.

Social Conservatives Mainstream Tea Party Could Support Any Libertarian

12 19 14 17 23HUCKABEE BUSH CRUZ RUBIO PAUL

11 11 11 11 12BUSH RUBIO WALKER 

WALKER 

BUSH

10 9 9 10 7WALKER 

HUCKABEE CARSON BUSH WALKER 

9 8 7 7 6CARSON WALKER 

PAUL CARSON CARSON

9 7 7 6 6RUBIO CARSON HUCKABEE HUCKABEE CHRISTIE

4 7 5 6 5CRUZ CHRISTIE RUBIO PAUL RUBIO

32 24 27 34 UNDECIDED 32UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED

BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE

8/20/2019 Can he win?

36/51

TED HAS REALGROWTH POTENTIAL

WITH EVANGELICALS

AND LIBERTARIANS.

8/20/2019 Can he win?

37/51

THIS PRIMARY IS

REALLY DIFFERENT.

Schedule is significantly different than past years – favors more conservative

candidate

The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will

come from conservative states

At least six well-funded candidates – making it very difficult for Establishment to

destroy the conservative challenger 

8/20/2019 Can he win?

38/51

The Calendar leans 

SOUTHDELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

Sou

th

 North

Tot

al

47

7

69°/o

31°/o

216

693

8/20/2019 Can he win?

39/51

The Calendar leans 

RIGHTDELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

Conservative

73° 10

507

Moderat

e

27 ° 10

186

Total

693

8/20/2019 Can he win?

40/51

The Calendar leans 

CRUZ

8/20/2019 Can he win?

41/51

A number of well-financed candidates

Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading

challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.

8/20/2019 Can he win?

42/51

TED ISWELL-POSITIONED

TO WIN THE

PRIMARY.

C h b i t tl i ht th i

8/20/2019 Can he win?

43/51

Cruz has been consistently right on the issuesthat matter most to primary voting blocs.

Sources: "

https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates"http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf   ""

http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm "http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "

BUSH HUCKABEE CRUZ PAUL RUBIO WALKER  

EDUCATION

/ COMMON CORE

IMMIGRATION

SOCIAL / RELIGIOUSISSUES

STRONG NATIONALDEFENSE

DEFICIT / GOV’TSPENDING

OBAMACARE

SECONDAMENDMENT

http://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidateshttp://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidateshttp://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdfhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htmhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htmhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htmhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htmhttp://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdfhttp://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates

8/20/2019 Can he win?

44/51

Cruz campaign has the most

complete portfolio of “Assets”

Small Dollar 

Donors

Large Super 

PAC

Social Media

Followers

Grass Roots

Support

Sophisticated

Data Analytics

CRUZ

BUSH ?  NO NO

HUCKABEE  NO NO

PAUL  NO

RUBIO

WALKER  ? ?

8/20/2019 Can he win?

45/51

Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ caliber 

campaign in 2016

• A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff.

• Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign

• Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV

commercials

• Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the world’s premier firms hired by the

Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds

 behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey “I am a

farmer Superbowl ad”

8/20/2019 Can he win?

46/51

Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ caliber 

campaign in 2016

• Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantityof

follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions.

• Has 8 million email addresses

• Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa – the only candidate even close is

Paul

• Great communicator that can appeal to young people

8/20/2019 Can he win?

47/51

Ted showing great strength

in must-win South Carolina

Straw Poll Results

Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two

largest and most populated GOP counties in the state

Greenville Anderson County Spartanburg Aiken Dorchester  

Cruz 28% 27% 32% 36% 30%

Bush 5% 1% N/A N/A N/A

Carson 9% 1% N/A N/A 16%

Graham 3% 6% N/A N/A 4%

Huckabee 3% 9% N/A N/A N/A

Paul 3% 1% 7% 6% 7%

Rubio 8% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Walker 22% 25% 30% 32% 25%

8/20/2019 Can he win?

48/51

Enhancing Cruz Brand

• A powerful biography comes out in late June

• Associated book tour 

• Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts

• Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around

the first debate

• Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are

unaware of his deep faith

8/20/2019 Can he win?

49/51

3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted Cruz

Top Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs – 2012

Rank Donor Total Given

1 Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam $91,780,000

2 Simmons, Harold $25,665,000

3 Perry, Robert $23,450,000

4 RickeEs, John $13,050,000

5 Mercer, Robert $5,409,354

6 Thiel, Peter $4,735,000

7 Childs, John $4,225,000

8 Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret $4,100,000

9 Rowling, Robert $3,635,00010 McNair, Robert $3,175,000

8/20/2019 Can he win?

50/51

To elect a principled conservative, donors can’t

wait until November or December to decide

• Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for

candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the

Media

• By January there is limited space at any price

• In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will

cover which candidates – the stronger the candidate is with money is the key

factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earned

media

• Fundraising success breeds fundraising success

• The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum

is a key driver 

8/20/2019 Can he win?

51/51

CANH E

WIN?