can government cure a sick economy with fiscal policy?????
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CAN GOVERNMENT CURE A SICK ECONOMY WITH FISCAL POLICY?????. Government Shutdown Averted- What’s the big Deal??. What is Fiscal Policy Anyway? Usually Countercyclical in nature. Deliberate changes in government spending or taxing to Achieve full employment - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CAN GOVERNMENT CURE A SICK ECONOMY
WITH FISCAL POLICY?????
Government Shutdown Averted- What’s the big Deal??
What is Fiscal Policy Anyway?Usually Countercyclical in nature
Deliberate changes in government spending or taxing to Achieve full employmentControl inflationEncourage economic growth
Highlights of Chapter #13Fiscal Policy
What tools can the federal government use to alter macroeconomic outcomes?
Taxing and spending in a variety of combinations.
Can Taxing and spending alterations ensure full-employment?
What policy actions will help fight inflation/ deflation?
What are possible risks of government intervention?
Where does the power to tax original from?
Article I, Section 8, U.S. Constitution
1789- “to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts, and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States.”
1913- 16th Amendment allowed the federal government to collect from individuals…
Discretionary Decision by Congress (discretionary spending)
Government can alter aggregate demand by:
Give examples……………….
Purchasing more or fewer goods and services
Raising or lowering taxes Changing the level of income
transfers
Government gets serious about Aggregates in 40’s
Employment Act of 1946After WWII…the unemployment issues needed to be addressed.
“Employment Act of 1946 passed- commits the Federal government to use all practicable means, consistent with the market system, to create economic conditions under which there will be…. employment opportunities, including self-employment for those able, willing, and seeking work, and to promote maximum employment production, and purchasing power.”
The Employment Act:Commits Federal government to take
action through monetary and fiscal policy to maintain economic stability.
**** This charge has specifically been assigned to the Federal Reserve (sans the fiscal part)…
The Executive branch responsible for fulfilling the PURPOSE of the ACT.
Advisory groups to President:CEA (Council of Economic Advisors)JEC (Joint Economic Committee of
Congress)
Purpose is to Shift Aggregate Demand either right or left…
depending on needs for stability.
Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy: Changes in Government Spending
If there is a recessionary gap in panel (a), fiscal policy can presumably increase aggregate demand
Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy: Changes in Government Spending
If there is an inflationary gap, fiscal policy can presumably decrease aggregate demand
The Tax Cut Multiplier
First round of spending:
Second round of spending:
Third round of spending:
More income
More consumption
More income
More consumption
Tax Cut
More consumption= MPC X tax cut
More saving= MPS X tax cut
More saving
More saving
Cumulative change in saving: = tax cut
Government Going Into Debt!
If government year after year engages in deficit spending… (more spending less revenue)… then the national debt will mount.
DUH!!! That’s the big controversy right now… Will we spend ourselves into a 3rd world nation.
Government expenditures rise- taxes remain the same- what has to give?
1. Government borrows the difference.
2. Has to offer higher interest rates to attract takers
3. This is the interest rate effect of expansionary fiscal policy
4. When interest rates go up, businesses less apt to invest, consumers less apt to purchase interest sensitive g & s
Figure 13-4 The Crowding-Out Effect
Expansionary policy causing deficit spending initially shifts from AD1 to AD2
Due to crowding out, AD shifts inward to AD3
Equilibrium GDPbelow full-employment GDP—recessionary gap
How does government pull this off? Borrowing from the public..
This is done by selling interest-bearing bonds.*most likely will drive up interest rates and
“crowd out private investments. (*note this is where foreign money is so important to the U.S. government and can put us in considerable peril if overdone)
**also note any decline in private spending will weaken or reduce the expansionary effect of deficit spending.
Possible Offsets to Fiscal Policy
Crowding-Out Effect
The tendency of expansionary fiscal policy to cause a decrease in planned investment or planned consumption in the private sector; this decrease normally results from the rise of interest rates.
Figure 13-3 The Crowding-Out Effect, Step by Step
Remember Crowding Out
Government comes in and makes financial investments so attractive that it crowds out the private sector…
The big-time investor will want to seek the best rate of return, and anytime government wants, they can make that be the scenario.
Second way for government to overspend
Money Creation The Central Bank creates new money and
private spending is not affected by expansionary efforts of the fiscal aspects.
**** this means that… Federal spending can continue without disrupting private spending or investment….Referred to monetizing the debt.(more $$ in circulation – debt goes “poof.”)
Print money to pay the bill! **** Problem is it is very inflationary… (Too
many $$$ chasing too few goods)
What is the relationship between tax receipts and GDP???
Increased Taxes reduce consumer spending… and aggregate demand…
These reductions would be favored if moving toward inflation… but increases in spending would be favored if economy is slumping.
So… we have inflation Unemployment ?
What % of GDP does consumption take up?
So… answer this question!!
What is the limit for Congress to spend in any given year?
Where does the limit come from?Is it stationary or floating?Is this a question that our current
government is faced with?????
3 Questions to Ask About Economic Stability
1. Can government spending and taxing ensure full employment?
2. What fiscal policy actions will help fight inflation
3. What are the risks of government intervention
What happens if the Fed pulls back andCongress decides to balance the
budget?
Will a tax cut hurt or help the budget?Does it matter who gets the tax cut?How would the multiplier work here?
Who Decides?
Which is the better way to eliminate recession and inflation? (government spending or taxes)
The answer here is whether you want big government or “smaller”
government.
Possible Offsets to Fiscal Policy
Supply-Side Economics
The suggestion that creating incentives for individuals and firms to increase productivity will cause the aggregate supply curve to shift outward
Possible Offsets to Fiscal Policy
Question
Would a tax increase cause you to work more or less?
Figure 13-5 Laffer Curve
Tax rates andtax revenuesrise together
Tax revenues are at a maximum
Tax rates and tax revenues fall together
Terms to Know
Automatic fiscal policya change in fiscal policy caused by the state of the economy. (unemployed- pay fewer taxes.)
Discretionary fiscal policya policy action initiated by an Act of Congress
Expansionary fiscal policygovernment should either increase its purchases of g&s or cut its taxes. (causes govt to borrow.)
Automatic Stabilizers
Automatic or Built-In Stabilizers ( should these be changed today???)
Changes in government spending and taxation that occur automatically without deliberate action of Congress The tax system
Unemployment compensation
Welfare spending
Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Practice: Coping with Time Lags - Fiscal results
Long – a policy designed to correct a recession may not produce results until the economy is experiencing inflation. (9-12 months)
Variable in length – they can be from 1-3 years, and the timing of the desired effect cannot be predicted. (unemployment)
Because fiscal policy time lags tend to be variable, policymakers have a difficult time fine-tuning the economy.
3 Kinds of Taxes
Progressive tax- = tax rate/GDP rises with GDP.
Proportional tax = average tax rate remains constant as GDP rises.
Regressive tax system = average tax rate falls as GDP rises.
The progressive tax system is greater built-in stabilizer… BUT….proportional tax will ultimately bring in more revenue remember Laffer curve).
Axiom to remember….. Always!
Increased taxes reduce spending and Aggregate Demand
Reductions in spending are desirable when economy is moving toward inflation
Or Increases in spending are desirable when economy is moving toward a slump.
Timing!!!!!
Often times the move either way for Congress and/or Admin is slow to realize
Administrative lag….. Takes time to digest all the fiscal data and decide what to suggest.
Operational Lag…usually a 9 to 12 month period before any fiscal move can actually take affect in the real world… work projects, money into economy… Congress passing the Bill and lots of pork added. Remember… Porkbarrelling!!!
Leading Indicators
1. Average workweek2. Initial claims for unemployment insurance.3. New orders for consumer goods4. Vendor preferences (delivery status)5. New orders for capital goods6. Building permits for houses7. Stock prices8. Money supply9. Interest-rate spread(smaller difference between
short term and long term rates usually spells decline of GDP)
10. Consumer expectations
If government reduces taxes and increases spending… created budget deficit…*this is where we are now
Deficit spending = use of borrowed funds to finance government expenditures that exceed tax revenues
Budget Deficit= amt which govt spending exceeds govt revenues (specific time period)
Surplus= ………..
Discretionary and automatic spending.Each year… Pres/Congress put together
budget blueprint for next fiscal year.OMB and CBO…Fiscal year for federal government = October
1Cyclical Deficits = portion of budget deficit
attributable to unemployment or inflationStructural Deficit = whatever does not fall
into cyclical falls into structural (created deficits by works of Congress)
Let’s Talk about DEBT
Accumulation of Debt: When Treasury borrows funds it issues treasury bonds. Treasury bonds = promissory notes (IOUs) issued by the U.S. Treasury.
Total stock of all outstanding bonds represent national debt.
Who owns the Debt?
National Debt represents a liability as well as an asset in the form of bonds.Liability – obligation to make future payment : debtAsset = anything having exchange value in the marketplace is wealth
*National debt creates as much wealth (for bond holders as liabilities for the U.S. Treasury).
Actual Ownership of the Debt
Federal Agencies hold roughly 43% of outstanding Treasury Bonds
Federal Reserve acquires Treasury bonds in its conduct of monetary policy
SS Trust Fund is the largest owner of U.S. Debt State and local governments hold 7% All debt held by U.S. households, institutions and
governments is called internal debt and equals approximately 88% of the total
External debt- U.S. govt debt (Treasury bonds) held by foreign households and institutions. ** this is increasing
Breakdown
PUBLIC DEBT OWNERSHIP, 2002
10%
33%
11%
18%
11%17%
Debt heldBy FederalReserve &
GovernmentAgencies
Debt heldOutside the
FederalReserve &
GovernmentAgencies
Federal Reserve
U.S.Government
Agencies
Other, IncludingState & Local Governments
U.S. Banks & FinancialInstitutions
ForeignOwnership
U.S. Individuals
Debt Service
This is the interest required to be paid each year on outstanding debt.
Paying interest on the debt restricts government’s ability to balance the budget or fund other public sectors
Most debt servicing is a redistribution of income from taxpayers to bondholders.
Opportunity cost or burden of debt is the OC of the activities financed by the debt (what they could do with the money…in the alternative)
CURRENT PROBLEMS
1. Crude Oil Prices rising2. Instability in Middle East3. Exchange rate of dollar 4. Unemployment rate (8.9%)5. Cost of food rising6. Debt incurred by Congress7. Social Security8. Terrorism prospects9. WHAT SHOULD CONGRESS DO?
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
Be cognizant of economic eventsDon’t be an ostrich
VOTE FOR BEST CANDIDATE
Then appears the Elephant in the Living Room
SOCIAL SECURITY::::::::::::2010?2015?2030?
Where will you be in those years?SS is funded from payroll taxes (then it is
assisted from the General Revenue Fund).AND MEDICARE/MEDICAID
Debt Ceiling – UTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzcCoyJBMSU
House Vote
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/112/house/1/690
Senate Vote
The Senate vote is set for noon Tuesday. Approval would send the measure to President Obama and immediately grant the Treasury $400 billion in additional borrowing authority, just hours before a midnight deadline.