How are global analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced?

Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

Richard Engelen (ECMWF) On behalf of CAMS30 team

OBSERVATIONS

Metop-B GOME-2 Metop-A GOME-2 OMI SBUV OMI

Ozone observations per 12 hours

ANALYSIS & FORECAST

Full 3-D fields that are forecasted 5 days ahead.

CAMS SERVICE CHAIN

Space Agencies In-situ component

National scale

CAMS

GLOBAL SERVICES

Real-time

Analyses

AER, CHEM

Forecasts

AER, CHEM, GHG

Delayed-mode

Analyses

GHG

Reanalysis

Analyses

AER, CHEM, GHG

Supplementary

Analysis

GFAS

GLOBAL SYSTEM

C-IFS

Observation operators

Chemical module

GHG module

Aerosol module

Chemical module

Aerosol module

Meteorology

4D-Var

GHG module

Data Acquisition

Data Assimilation Forecast Data

Dissemination

Interaction with data providers

User supportValidation

Routine verification

Routine monitoring

Emissions

GLOBAL SERVICE CHAIN

CURRENT STATUS

• 80 km horizontal resolution

• One 5-day forecasts per day

• 00UTC forecast available before 22 UTC

• 40 km horizontal resolution

• Two 5-day forecasts per day

• 12UTC forecast available before 22 UTC

GFAS AND GHG SYSTEMS

GFAS currently provides daily estimates of global fire radiative power and fire emissions of many species.Aim is to better estimate diurnal cycle and forecasted emissions (links with Land and Emergency services) and fully embed in operational global system.

GHG system analyses CO2 and CH4 5 days behind real-time and provides daily real-time 10-day forecasts of the same species.Aim is to merge the two systems and run them as close to real-time as observation availability allows.

CAMS REANALYSIS

CAMS interim reanalysisMACC reanalysisMACC/CAMS real-timeControl

Using experience from MACC and CAMS-interim reanalyses, the 1st CAMS Reanalysis will start later this year.

2003 – 2017All current speciesAdditional observations

Ozone score

USE OF GLOBAL SERVICES

• Boundary conditions (CAMS, PANDA, HTAP,…)• Pollution and long-range transport on global scale (e.g.,

large wildfires, volcanos eruptions, dust storms)• Input for downscaling applications (e.g., smartphone

apps)• Input for national forecasting services (e.g., dust, UV)• WMO warning advisory centres• Scientific community (field campaigns, scientific

studies, ...)• ...

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a followerSteve Jobs

• Use new satellite products: S3, S5p, OCO-2, S-NPP• Improved UV products (health)• More accurate surface aerosol and deposition (health, solar energy)• Nitrates (key link between chemistry and aerosol)• Stratospheric chemistry (ozone layer)• Volcanic eruptions (impact on air travel and climate)• More accurate methane emissions (monitoring of carbon cycle)• Increased resolution • …