cambodia poverty assessment - feb 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Where have all the poor gone? Cambodia Poverty Assessment 2013
February 20, 2014Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Carlos Sobrado, Senior Poverty Economist
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1. Progress on poverty reduction
2. Remaining challenges
3. Policy recommendations
What we will talk about…
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Official poverty estimates in Cambodia
o In 1994, poverty in Cambodia was estimated for the first time
o Several other estimates were developed after 1994, but the results were difficult to compare
o Starting in 2004 the National Institute of Statistics adopted a more standardized field work for the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey
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And in 2013, with an updated methodology, poverty was estimated for each year
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
53.2%50.1%
38.8%
23.9% 22.1% 20.5%18.6%
Povert
y R
ate
p
5
Reductions reported everywhere; with highest poverty in rural
areas
2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
15.8%2.7%
4.3% 3.8%
39.7%35.0%
12.7%9.1%
59.0% 57.9%
27.5%
22.2%
Phnom Penh
Other Urban
Rural
p
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Methodology
o Measures poverty by comparing per capita consumption to a poverty line
o The poverty line is the cost of a food basket with a minimum amount of calories, plus an allowance for non-food consumption
o Estimates based on 2009 data – applied to all years
o Based on a sample (not a census)
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For those households that escaped poverty
… housing conditions improved
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
33.9%
3.6%7.1%
52.9%
21.8%28.8%
2004 2011
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those escaping poverty … also acquired more
assets
Motorcycle Mobile phone Television Suitcases0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
18.9%
2.2%
41.4%
17.1%
54.9%
62.5% 62.7% 63.2%2004 2011
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In education, net enrollment improved for every schooling year
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6Year in primary Year in secondary
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Net enrollment rate by year
2004 Net 2011 Net
% s
tud
en
ts a
t a
pp
ro-
pri
ate
gra
de
10
Gender gap in education decreases and disappears over time
19
18
19
22
19
26
19
30
19
34
19
38
19
42
19
46
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
-10123456789
FemaleMaleGAP
Birth year
School age
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Cambodia is on target for the under-five-mortality MDG goal
2000 2005 20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Poorest
Wealthiest
Death
s p
er
1,0
00
child
ren
What are the reasons behind this impressive reduction in poverty?
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In 2004, a large group were just below the poverty line
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10% 2004 Poor
2011
Consumption in Per Capita 2009 Phnom Pen Riels/day (000)
Po
pu
lati
on
%
Poverty Line = CR 5,326 in 2009 prices
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By 2011, they were no longer poor They moved just above the poverty
line
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%2004
2011
Consumption in Per Capita 2009 Phnom Pen Riels/day (000)
Po
pu
lati
on
%
Poverty Line = CR 5,326 in 2009 prices
2011 Poor
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The most important drivers of poverty reduction were increases in
rice prices and rice production
Increased rice prices & rice production account for 47% of the poverty reduction
Key drivers of poverty reduction 2004-2011
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Pro-poor growth helped reduce poverty in 2008, 2010, 2011
2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201205
10152025303540
2119
21 21 22 23 23
3337
32 32 30 28 28
Share prosperity (bottom 40%) GINI * 100
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Other key factors were: … a liberal, undistorted agriculture market
For example, from 2004 to 2009
• International rice prices: ↑134%
• Local rice prices in Cambodia: ↑119%
18
… Government policies on infrastructure
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o 8,000 village roads helped farmers get rice to local markets.
o And the roads were increasingly used by the poorest. Poor households with motorbikes increased four times - from 7% to 29%
…and local infrastructure development funded by communes met local needs
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o Poverty decreased from 53.2% (2004) to 20.5% (2011)
o Reflected in improvements in quality of housing conditions, assets education and health.
o This reduction in poverty came about because:o Many poor moved just above the poverty lineo Rice price and productiono Pro-poor growtho Free rice market price o RGC investments in rural infrastructure.
Progress in reducing poverty - in a few words
Despite the impressive reduction in poverty, challenges remain...
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The poor are less but remain concentrated in rural areas: 9 out
of 10
6.8 million poor in 2004
Other Ur-ban 0.6 mil-lion
Phnom Penh 0.2 million
Rural 6.2 million
Other Urban 0.2 million
Phnom Penh 0.1 million
Rural 2.7 million
3.0 million poor in 2011
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There are fewer poor, but more vulnerable people
2004 2011
4.6
8.1
Near poor people (million)
Near poor are those living above $1.15 per day , but below $2.30 per day
2004 2011
6.9
3.0
Poor people (million)
Poor are those living below $1.15 per day (poverty line)
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A small shock can double poverty
2011 2011 with shock
20.5%
41.0%Poverty rate
- =
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Further increases in rice prices are unlikely,
at least at the same pace
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Overage in primary is a major problem
and increases dropout rates
Students entering first grade late, limits the learning potential and increases dropout rates:
o 40% of students are entering first grade at age 8 (two years later than recommended)
o 40% of students are finishing primary at 15 years old (3.1 years later than recommended)
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Enrollment differences between upper and lower quintiles
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Lowest quintile Highest quintile
School year completed
% o
f 1
5-2
0 y
ears
old
wit
h
com
ple
ted
sch
ool year
in 2
01
1
28
After some progress child malnutrition rates were relatively
unchanged in 2005-2010
Stunted Underweight0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 20002005
20052010 2010
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o While HEF is a key instrument to insure access to health services by the poor, some challenges remain:o Increase coverage: 25% poor households do not
have a HEF cardo Increase use: among the poor seeking treatment
in hospitals, 60% do not use the HEF cards
o The poor seek medical advice 55% of the time from informal providers where diagnosis and treatment are unreliable.
Under use of Health Equity Funds (HEF)
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o There are less poor, but more vulnerable households
o Relatively small shocks could double poverty rates
o Another spike in rice price unlikely
o Too many overage students
o Low enrollment rates of poor children
o Malnutrition remains high
o Health Equity Funds are not fully utilized
Remaining challenges… In a few words
Possible implications on policies and programs to
reduce poverty and vulnerability
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o For Example through:
o Improved farmers skills by means of
formal education and better extension
services
o Improved access to improved seeds
o Promote water user associations
Enhance agriculture profitability and diversification
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o Rationalize, connect and maintain roads and other infrastructure
o More funds for commune-driven participatory development to better meet local needs
Continue to improve access to basic rural infrastructure and
services
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But we also need to look beyond agriculture
Increase jobs in manufacturing by addressing the 3 key bottlenecks:
o Reduce electricity cost and increase reliability by implementing a strategic and competitive roll out plan with Public-Private-Part.
o Enhance business environment through reduced informal payments and burdensome regulations
o Reduce high transport costs and unreliable delivery by implementing a connectivity strategy
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Investing in education
o Expand early childhood education to promote entry to Grade 1 at the right age
o Strengthen the quality of schooling in early grades to reduce repetition in primary
o Provide targeted scholarships and school feeding in primary and secondary schools, especially for poor children, to improve enrollment and reduce drop-out rates.
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o Expand provision of health equity card
o Increase use of health equity card to encourage health services at public hospitals
o Tighter control on informal services to improve medical treatments
Improve access to public health services
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Integrated programs to tackle child malnutrition
o Food fortification and micronutrients
o Improve feeding practice
o Reduce open defecation
o Promote hygiene practices
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Implement sub-national social accountability policy to improve performance of local service providers
o Establish systematic citizen/user feedback
and monitoring
o Display performance and budget
information for communes, schools and
health centers
Strengthen accountability to improve service delivery
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Implement National Social Protection Strategy
Clarify institutional responsibilities and provide support for agencies implementing the NSPS
Encourage salaried workers to enroll in national security system
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o Agriculture Extension services, seeds and
participation on infrastructure projects
o Manufacturing Lower electric and transport
cost and reduce informal payments and
regulations
o Education Expand early childhood education,
promote enrollment of the poor
RecommendationsIn a few words
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o Health Integrated approach to fight malnutrition,
improved understanding of low HEF utilization, and
strengthen regulation on informal markets
o Social Protection Increased support to
coordinating agency, greater participation of
salaried workers in national security system
o Increase accountability of all service providers
RecommendationsIn a few words
Thank you very much for your attention
Thank you very much for your attention