cambios y tendencias económicas y del mercado automotor ... · cambios y tendencias económicas y...
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Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Cambios y tendencias económicas y del
mercado automotor: Perú
Encuentro AutomotorGuido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts
Lima, 17 de Diciembre 2019
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 2
IHS Markit es una
compañía de ciencia
informática.
Con conocimiento en las
industrias globales mas
relevantes, utilizamos
tecnología y ciencia para
proveer datos, software y
perspectivas que permitan
a nuestros clientes tomar
decisiones informadas.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Economía Global
PIB desacelerando rápidamente y antes de lo previsto, debajo de la tendencia
4
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Aug 2019 Aug 2018
Comercio y incertibumre pesan de manera negativa
PIB Real
Pe
rce
nt
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas globales automotrices
2019 vs 2018
5
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
93.7
million
-4.1%Sa
les in
mill
ion
s
89.9
million
Caida a causa de multiples shocks globales
+56,000 +39,000 +16,000
-78,000 -94,000 -181,000
-522,000
-574,000
-1.85 mil.
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
-184,000-468,000
Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
93.789.9
90.1
104.3
95.6
97.5 99.3
111.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
September 2019 forecast September 2018 forecast
Ventas globales automotrices
Caída en demanda automotriz anticipo desaceleración económica
• Demanda automotriz desincronizada del comportamiento
económico durante los próximos dos años. Dependiente de una
mejora en las ventas de vehículos ligeros en China.
• Devaluación en monedas golpea la demanda automotriz. La
industria esta dolarizada y sufre de la apreciación de la moneda.
• Inestabilidad económica en mercados emergentes. Pesa
particularmente sobre el segmento Premium.
•
• Políticas de emisiones impactan demanda automotriz. Prevemos
ventas mas débiles en India.
6
Source: IHS Markit
Ventas Globales
© 2019 IHS Markit
Mill
ions
Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas globales automotrices
Mercados maduros vs mercados en vías de desarrollo
7
43.843.2
42.242.3
43.8 43.242.4
25
30
35
40
45
50
Sep 2019 FC Sep 2018 FC
Source: IHS Markit
Mercados Maduros
© 2019 IHS Markit
Mill
ions
49.946.7
47.8
62.151.854.3
56.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Sep 2019 FC Sep 2018 FC
Source: IHS Markit
Mercados Emergentes
© 2019 IHS Markit
Mill
ions
Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast; mature markets: West Europe, US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Oceania. Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Fuerzas detrás de la Industria Automotriz Global
8
China Electrificación ADAS Nuevas co. Valores
• Mezcla de segmentos y tecnologías
• Desarrollo de nuevas motorizaciones y transmisiones ha decaído precipitosamente
• Nuevos players tanto en armadoras como proveedores
Note 1: ADAS = advanced driver assistance systems; EV = electric vehicle; AV = autonomous vehicle; ACES = autonomous, connectivity, electrification, & shared vehicles
• Incertidumbre en el proceso de electrificación
• Los valores de la industria (actualmente carros eléctricos y autónomos) es posible cambien
• Cada empresa surca su propio camino en ACES, no todas triunfaran
• Eventos/Políticas que impacten demanda automotriz
• Uniones/sociedades desconocidas como ser FCA/PSA
• Nuevas tecnologías y innovaciones
Riesgos desconocidos
Riesgos conocidos
impredecibles
Riesgos conocidos
Cada empresa enfoca sus ganancias para afrontar estos
retos
Note 2: Electrification is defined as hybrid vehicles such as MHEVs, FHEVs and PHEVs, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
China paso de ser la mitad de EUA a ser dos veces su
Mercado en un periodo de 20 años
© 2019 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
2x
US
China
2007 2019 2027
US-China sales
Dependencia en China determina motorizaciones y
modelo de vehículos
© 2019 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
1. Influencia de China—Volumen, tecnología y escala
China tiene influencia tecnológica—no solo volumen
9
Dependency on China volume also dictates global propulsion and platform strategies
½ x
“Impacto Chino”
• Regulaciones Chinas influencian el Desarrollo
tecnológico de muchas empresas
• China tiene mayor similitud en segmentos modelos a
mercados globales lo cual causa se vuelva un centro de
desarrollo importante
Dependency on China volume also dictates global propulsion and platform strategies
11%
14%
14%
17%
24%
25%
35%
37%
39%
Ford
Toyota
Hyundai
R-N-M
BMW
Daimler
Honda
GM
VW
Share of global output based in China, 2025
16.1 7.9 16.817.0 25.2 32.3
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
China representa el 40% de los programas nuevos lanzados el 2019Anticipamos próximamente su política energética tenga un mayor rol global en motorizaciones
10
79 6898 95
136 121155
134170
220196
144183
123169 172
90 99
140118
132122
115119
130
175181
150
129
151
134105
88 73
88101
93
7875
63
83
8986
83 64
8070
75
2624
3523
38
2523
33
30
3833
27 3533
3434
3832
38
30
43
3136
29
28
2745
48 50
3538
36
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Chin
a’s
share
Num
be
r o
f la
un
ch
es
J/K NA EU Others China China's share
Lanzamientos global en produccion
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Electrificacion
Definición de Electrificación
11
ICE
Nissan Kicks
Hybrid-Full
Toyota Corolla
ICE: Start/Stop
Jeep Renegade
Hybrid-Plug In
Volvo XC60
BEV
Tesla Model 3
FCV
Toyota Mirai
Hybrid-Mild
MB C200 EQ Boost
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
2. Electrificación representa 58% del mercado global el 2030
12
94%
42%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mill
on
es
ICE & ICE S/S MHEV FHEV PHEV Electric Fuel Cell
Producción Global por tipo de propulsión
58%
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Sistema de propulsión por Región/Cluster de Empresas
13
Europa y China lideran electrificación
Producción 2030
Electric
MHEV
FHEV
ICEICE S/S
PHEV
24%
22%
9%3%
42%
China
21%
19%
9%4%
47%
Europa
33%
12%10%
24%
22%
Japon/Korea
66%9%
7%
5%12%
Norte America
Source: IHS Markit
60% 59%
8%
34%
40% 41%
92%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Asian 4 Detroit 3 German 3 Others
ICE Electrification
Producción 2030
Note: Electrification is defined as hybrid vehicles such as MHEVs, FHEVs and PHEVs, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
Source: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Definición de Autónomos por SAE-Sociedad de Ingenieros AutomotricesClasificación global
14
L5 – Full automation
L0 – No automation
L1 – Driver assistance
L2 – Partial automation
L3 – Conditional automation
L4 – High automation
Tiene sistemas de advertencia
Se parquea solo
Cruzero automatico
Require intervencion del chofer
No requiere chofer la mayoria del
tiempo
No requiere chofer
ADAS
Autonomo
Automatizado
SAE automation classification levels
© 2019 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
© 2019 IHS Markit
3. Pronostico de autónomos por Empresa
15
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Diferencias en uso de capital y recursos
• Hay inversiones en electrificación, movilidad compartida y vehículos
autónomos que permiten la formación de nuevas empresas y modelos de
negocios:
• Menor dependencia en bienes capitales (plantas)
• Mayor libertad para formar alianzas y/o estrategias
• Diferentes ciclos tecnológicos (5 años para negocios actual)
• Sector tradicional automotriz:
• Presion crece para mejorar eficiencia y contener costes
• Distribucion de capital ya asignado dado ciclos de negocios
• Dificultad en atraer talento
4. Compañías nuevas vs compañías tradicionales
17
Desarrollo de nuevas compañías
impacta:
• Capital, recursos y atención a nuevos
modelos de negocio
• Énfasis del negocio revuelve en
generar innovación
• Transición será difícil par algunos e
imposible para otros
Note: Electrification is defined as hybrid vehicles such as MHEVs, FHEVs and PHEVs, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
ICE
Fullhybrid
BEV
Chassis/wheels & tires
Climate
Interior/seating/safety
BIW/glass
Powertrain/driveline
Electrical/electronics
Battery/E-Motor/charge
5. Valor del eco-sistema de un vehículo
18
Valores relativos de los diferentes costes de manufactura
Impacto:
• Proveedores existentes deben de
adaptarse, los nuevos tienen una
ventaja
• Electrificación da mayor importancia a
paquetes de batería, carga, clima y
ADAS
• Partes del chasis, motor y tren son
alterados o eliminados
• Ritmo de transición desconocido y
incertidumbre en nuevas demandas del
cliente
~60%
Source: Analysis based upon IHS Markit and industry estimates
Note: Electrification is defined as hybrid vehicles such as MHEVs, FHEVs and PHEVs, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
© 2019 IHS Markit
~26%
~16%
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros en América LatinaMargen de error 2019 y perspectivas de crecimiento
Pais CY 2017 CY 2018 P'18 CY 2019 P'19 CY 2020 P'20
CY 2019
Dic18 MOE '19
Argentina 860,158 786,649 -8.5% 432,506 -45.0% 335,787 -22.4% 510,604 -15.3%
Brazil 2,175,777 2,465,684 13.3% 2,659,684 7.9% 2,767,217 4.0% 2,710,500 -1.9%
Chile 371,053 420,043 13.2% 367,953 -12.4% 352,738 -4.1% 421,750 -12.8%
Colombia 237,421 249,464 5.1% 259,481 4.0% 274,389 5.7% 245,689 5.6%
Ecuador 100,727 130,336 29.4% 125,050 -4.1% 123,004 -1.6% 130,455 -4.1%
Mexico 1,532,632 1,425,404 -7.0% 1,315,042 -7.7% 1,280,559 -2.6% 1,465,987 -10.3%
Peru 167,305 145,284 -13.2% 150,025 3.3% 155,104 3.4% 161,952 -7.4%
19
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Perspectivas económicas - Peru
20
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
2.5%
3.3%
4.1% 4.1% 4.0%
2.4% 2.4% 2.6%
3.4%3.9%
3.1% 3.1%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Real GDP growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Consumer price inflation
0
1
2
3
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exchange rate per USD
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Current Account Balance as a % of GDP
Real GDP Growth Consumer price inflation
Exchange rate per USD Current-account balance as % of GDP
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 21
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mile
s
Ventas de Vehiculos Ligeros (SAAR) - Peru
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Perú Venta Vehículos Ligeros
22
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Sales Change
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Peru Top-10 Market Share
23
Toyota Hyundai Kia Suzuki Nissan Renault Chevrolet Mazda Mitsubishi VW Others
2012 18.8% 16.2% 10.9% 5.3% 8.9% 1.5% 10.9% 1.1% 1.4% 4.0% 21.1%
2018 17.6% 14.6% 10.6% 5.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9% 29.6%
2019 19.1% 12.8% 9.3% 3.3% 4.6% 3.9% 5.8% 2.9% 3.7% 3.4% 31.3%
2020 19.6% 13.7% 9.4% 2.8% 4.2% 4.1% 5.5% 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 31.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.
Peru Bodytype
24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
SUV Sedan Hatchback Van Pickup MPV Chassis-Cab Coupe Wagon Roadster Convertible
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 25Source: IHS Automotive
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Toyota 2017
Toyota 2025
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Portfolio Age
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Toyota Brand YOY Industry YOY
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Hilux Yaris Etios RAV4 Avanza Others
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Toyota
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 26Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Hyundai 2017
Hyundai 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Accent Grand i10 Tucson i20 Elantra Others
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Hyundai Brand YOY Industry YOY
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Hyundai
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 27Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Kia 2017
Kia 2025
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Kia Brand YOY Industry YOY
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rio Picanto Cerato Sportage Bongo Others
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Kia
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 28Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Chevrolet 2017
Chevrolet 2025
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Chevrolet Brand YOY Industry YOY
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
N300 Sail Spin Prisma Spark Others
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Chevrolet
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 29Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Nissan 2017
Nissan 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Versa Frontier Kicks Sentra Qashqai Others
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Nissan Brand YOY Industry YOY
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Nissan
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 30Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Renault 2017
Renault 2025
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Renault Brand YOY Industry YOY
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Duster Logan Duster Oroch Master Captur Others
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Renault
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 31Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
Mitsubishi 2017
Mitsubishi 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
L200 ASX Montero Outlander Eclipse Cross Others
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mitsubishi Brand YOY Industry YOY
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Mitsubishi
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 32Source: IHS Automotive
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Portfolio Age
Chassis-Cab
Convertible
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
PickupRoadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2017
Industry 2025
VW 2017
VW 2025
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
VW Brand YOY Industry YOY
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gol Tiguan Fox Amarok Jetta Others
Peru Ventas Ligeros - Volkswagen
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Muito Obrigado!