caltech ce seminar - jan. 25, 2007 the november 13, 2008 shakeout exercise (gg’08) threat to...
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Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08)
Threat to Roadway Lifelines: Mw 7.8 on theSouthern San Andreas Fault
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D.U. S. Geological Survey
Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project
August 24, 2007Caltrans Seismic Advisory Board Meeting
Caltrans District 8
The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08)
Threat to Roadway Lifelines: Mw 7.8 on theSouthern San Andreas Fault
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D.U. S. Geological Survey
Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project
August 24, 2007Caltrans Seismic Advisory Board Meeting
Caltrans District 8
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans SAB report (Dec. 2003)
Race to Seismic Safety
“Are California’s roadways earthquake-safe?”
“Develop and implement actions that foster the rapid, effective, and economic response to and
recovery from damaging earthquakes”
Recomendation #7: Emergency Response:
“Caltrans should maintain its rapid response capability to evaluate, repair and restore…”
sections on fault rupture and ‘fling’
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
ShakeOut - San Andreas Mw7.8
QuickTime™ and aCinepak decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Courtesy of Rob Graves, URS
QuickTime™ and aCinepak decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Short periods best from NGA combination
Long periods best from physics-based simulation
Courtesy of Rob GravesCourtesy of Ned Field and Nitin Gupta
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Long-period structures such as bridges susceptible to distant long-period and
sustained shaking
Surface faulting where fault crosses freeways and major highways can damage
roadway and engineered fills
Caltrans is our first major ShakeCast user - Loren Turner
Intent is to test ShakeOut scenario through CISN Display as if a real earthquake has occurred, then use ShakeCast to assess and
prioritize shaking damage
Caltrans has demonstrated commitment to reducing seismic vulnerability and is the best organization to lead monitoring of fault-crossing lifeline infrastructure
(others private; data?)
Caltrans special considerations
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
San Andreas - need to instrument major
lifeline infrastructure crossings
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault
crossings
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
FEMA report series (1991-1992)
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
ShakeOut Mw 7.8 Surface OffsetsSUBJECT TO REVISION (KMD v. 1.1.0; 5/12/07)
Lifeline
Crossing:
Fault Slip
(meters)
Duration of Disruption (days)
Gorman (I-5) 0
(landslide - Pyramid)
15
Palmdale
(Route 14)
2.6 10
Cajon Pass
(I-15)
4.4
(low end of range)
35
(FEMA, 1991)
Whitewater 1.7 5
Indio (I-10) 7.3 10
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans I-10 at Indio
Fault slip of7.3 metersis expected;significantafterslip
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans I-10 and Rt. 62
Faultslip oneach of 2 strandsmay beexpected
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Cajon Pass lifelines
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Cajon Pass - critical lifeline crossing
Currently USGS has no real-time seismic or GPS instrumentation at this location
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Cajon Pass I-15 Fault Crossing
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School
Prototype GPS fault slip sensor
Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California
Need robust GPS at all key lifeline crossings
Desirable to include seismic with GPS
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
San Andreas - need to at least instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings
GPS & accelerometer arrays - no funding has yet been identified for an operational system
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Proposal - zipper array for early warning and immediate finite-fault source for San Andreas and
San Jacinto fault ‘Big Ones’
IOC - 36 quadrilaterals shown @ 30 km spacing (shown)FOC - 100 quads @ 10 km spacing ($5 M init. + $1 M/yr)
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
SoSAFE is under way (SCEC paleoseismology)B4 LiDAR Project completed; data openly available
SCEC funds distributedUSGS NEHRP RFP deadline &NSF proposal preparations
MW 7.8 earthquake scenario has been specifiedhttp://urbanearth.usgs.gov/
3 levels of rupture description detail made availablenext-generation attenuation relation models done - to be input to
HAZUSground motion simulations in progress
Slip at Lifelines Fault Crossings has been specified (v 1.1.0)
economic modeling to be conductedworkshops with lifeline operators (May & Oct. 2007)
Multi-hazard triggered events to be included
in the scenario
ShakeOut exercise - November 13, 2008 @ 10:00 a.m. - “GG08”
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
What can I do to prepare my lifeline?
Improve engineering at lifeline crossing points (retrofit and mitigate) to reduce down-time and to avert ecological and environment impacts
Stockpile materials on-site that will be needed to make repairs quickly; develop a plan for repairs
Instrumentation for automated damage assessment
Alaska Pipeline: $3M invested prior, >$100M savedAlaska Pipeline: $3M invested prior, >$100M saved
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Ken Hudnut
DOI / U. S. Geological Survey
525 S. Wilson Ave.
Pasadena, CA 91106
(626)583-7232
Cell: (626)672-6295