california labor federation member research california labor federation member research conducted...

California Labor Federation Member Research

Conducted August-September, 2014

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Vote Likelihood

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Chances of Voting, By SampleMuch lower percentage of ‘infrequent voters’ saying they will definitely vote.

In November of this year, there will be a general election in California in which voters will choose candidates for Governor, Congress, state legislature, and to decide some other contests. What are the chances that you will vote in that election? Will you definitely vote, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, will you probably not vote, or will you definitely not vote?

Probably14%

Definitely86%

Frequent Voters Infrequent Voters

Probably30%

Definitely45%

Probably not7%

50-5018%

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Likelihood of Voting, Frequent vs. Infrequent

Frequent

Infrequent

5

26

7

24

8

7

80

43

1-5 6-8 9 10

How likely are you to vote this November on a scale of one to ten where one means you will definitely not vote, ten means you will definitely vote no matter what, and 5 means you are fifty-fifty?

Likelihood of Voting… 10 ‘definitely vote’

MUCH lower likelihood of voting among the infrequent voters, with about half as many saying they will ‘definitely’ vote this November.

From focus groups:

Most frequent voters had heard at least some information about November.

Infrequent voters could rarely name a single contest on the ballot this November, having heard almost nothing about the November election. Many admitted to skipping elections – or at least specific races – if they did not have enough information about the election.

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Ethnicity, Frequent vs. Infrequent

For this research study, we are seeking to talk to a representative group of Californians. Which of the following ethnic groups describes you? You can stop me when I’ve read your group. / IF PRIOR QUESTION = NOT LATINO. And are you of Hispanic or Latino descent?

Frequent Voters

Majority of frequent voters are White, whereas nearly two-thirds of infrequent voters are non-White.

White or Caucasian

Latino, Hispanic, or Mexican

African American

Mixed Race

Filipino

Other Asian or Pacific Islander

Native American

Chinese

Vietnamese

Prefer not to say

5625

63222112

% Self-Reported Ethnicity

Infrequent Voters

White or Caucasian

Latino, Hispanic, or Mexican

African American

Mixed Race

Filipino

Other Asian or Pacific Islander

Native American

Chinese

Vietnamese

Prefer not to say

3537

12443

1211

% Self-Reported Ethnicity

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Governor’s Race

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Gubernatorial preferenceBrown holds commanding initial lead among both frequent and infrequent voters

First…. If the Election for Governor of California were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) Governor of California Jerry Brown, a Democra OR Businessman Neel Kashkari, a Republican


67

75

28

19

5 6

Brown Kashkari Undecided

53% Certain

20% Certain

48% Certain

10% Certain

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Superintendent of Public Instruction

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Superintendent of Public InstructionPlurality are undecided in the Superintendent’s race.

Next… If the Election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) Educator and California Superintendent Tom TorlaksonOR Educator and Schools’ Executive Marshall Tuck For whom would you vote?


37 35

1623

4742

Torlakson Tuck Undecided

20% Certain

9% Certain

12% Certain

10% Certain

Superintendent of Public Instruction

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Ballot Measures and Controller

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State controller Preference

Yee fares well, with larger lead among infrequent voters.

Next… If the Election for State Controller were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) California State Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee OR Mayor and CEO Ashley Swearengin, a Republican


4550

292426 26

Yee Swearengin Undecided

27% Certain

15% Certain23% Certain

15% Certain

State Controller

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Secretary of State PreferenceA majority of frequent voters choose Padilla over Peterson. Padilla’s lead is larger among infrequent voters.

Next… If the election for Secretary of State were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) California State Senator Alex Padilla, a Democrat OR Educator and Institute Director Pete Peterson, a Republican… For whom would you vote?


5362

3125

16 13

Padilla Peterson Undecided

34% Certain

19% Certain

36% Certain

13% Certain

Secretary of State

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Proposition 1 PreferenceStrong support for the water bond, with 43% of frequent and 51% of infrequent voters certain to vote yes.

In addition to electing candidates for office this November, California voters will also decide on some ballot measures. I’m now going to read the official title and summary for Proposition 1. Proposition 1 would authorize $11.14 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects such as surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and restoration, Bay-Delta Estuary sustainability, drinking water protection, water recycling and advanced water treatment technology, water supply management and conveyance, drought relief, wastewater treatment, emergency water supplies and public water system improvements. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?


7282

19119 7

Yes No Undecided

43% Certain

11% Certain

51% Certain

5% Certain

Prop 1: Water Bond

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Proposition 47 PreferenceNearly three-fifths support Prop 47 among frequent voters, with nearly two-thirds supportive among infrequent voters.

Next, I’m going to read the official title and summary for Proposition 47. Proposition 47 is titled “Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Initiative Statute.” It requires misdemeanor sentence instead of felony for certain drug possession offenses. It requires misdemeanor sentence instead of felony for the following crimes when amount involved is $950 or less: petty theft, receiving stolen property, and forging/writing bad checks. It allows felony sentence for these offenses if person has previous conviction for crimes such as rape, murder, or child molestation or is registered sex offender. It requires resentencing for persons serving felony sentences for these offenses unless court finds unreasonable public safety risk. It applies savings to mental health and drug treatment programs, K–12 schools, and crime victims. The fiscal impact summary by the Legislative Analyst estimates: Net state criminal justice system savings that could reach the low hundreds of millions of dollars annually. These savings would be spent on school truancy and dropout prevention, mental health and substance abuse treatment, and victim services. Net county criminal justice system savings that could reach several hundred million dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47?


5965

24 2317

12

Yes No Undecided

27% Cer-tain

12% Cer-tain

35% Cer-tain

12% Cer-tain

Prop 47: Criminal Sentencing Reform

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51

39

24 25

17

26

5 72 4

Governor Prop 1 Prop 47 Other Races* Other/None

Thinking about the races I just asked about, which of the following is most interesting to you?

Most Interesting Race (Of Those Tested)

Most Interesting RacesGovernor’s race is the most interesting race overall, followed by the two ballot measures tested – the water bond and criminal sentencing reform.

*Other: Includes Controller, Secretary of State and

Superintendent

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Thinking about the races I just asked about, do any of the races make you more likely to vote this November? IF YES: Which contest makes you more likely to vote? You can say more than one… Is it… [ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSE

More Likely to Vote Because of… (Multiple Reponses Accepted)

Infrequent Voters: Impact on Voting of Races Governor’s race, Prop 1, and Prop 47 all cause infrequent voters to say they are more likely to vote this November. Among Latino voters, Prop 47 stood out.

Governor

Proposition 1, the water bond

Proposition 47, criminal sentencing reform

Secretary of State

Superintendent

Controller

Yes, all of them

None / Not More Likely to Vote

Prefer not to say

47

41

38

22

21

19

4

8

2

Focus Group Comments on Prop 47:

“This will make more difference that the Governor’s race.” (Infrequent Voter, Sacramento)

“If this is handles right, it could be great.” (Infrequent voter, Fresno)

49% among Latinos

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Turnout Messaging

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Qualitative Findings on GOTV-Targeted Messaging

• Many voters of color – particularly men – were intrigued by Proposition 47, with many aware of prison overcrowding problems, and the influence of the private prison lobby.

“I want Hispanics to get a better position “(Frequent Voter, Latino, Los Angeles)

“There are a lot of Hispanic immigrants in this country. I’m a Democrat, but just because someone is a Democrat or has a Hispanic last name doesn’t mean they’ll help us.” (Infrequent voter, Latino, Fresno)

“I pay attention to the news on how many people are being incarcerated. Prison is a huge business. The huge companies who get the contracts to build and maintain prisons will probably be working against [Prop 47].” (African American man, Sacramento)

• Latino voters expressed a strong community focus in speaking about the best reasons to turn out to vote.

o This sentiment, however, doesn’t necessarily translate to support or enthusiasm for Democrats, as many Latinos expressed frustration with both parties.

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Partisan Messaging

Now I’m going to read some statements that some people make about why it’s important to vote this November. For each I read, please tell me if the statement is a very convincing reason to vote this November, somewhat convincing, not very convincing, or not at all convincing reason to vote this November. [RANDOMIZE]

5766

Frequent Infrequent

[SEAT AT TABLE] The working people of this state—whether they’re cops or teachers, bricklayers or farm workers—need a seat at the table if they’re going to be able to put food on the table for their kids. We need to vote to make sure our voices are heard.

Making your voice heard for the working people of the state is strongest message out of the partisan group tested.

% Very Convincing Reason to Vote

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