california energy commission outlook for california’s electricity supply and land use implications...
DESCRIPTION
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Energy Commission State licensing authority 50 MW+ thermal power plants Related facilities Time certain process Public process Comprehensive reviewTRANSCRIPT
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Outlook for California’s Electricity Supply
and Land Use Implications
BLMNational Lands
ConferenceDavid Maul
Chris TookerCalifornia Energy Commission
June 13, 2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Topics
• California’s Electricity System Overview
• Current Supply Activity
• Governor’s Executive Orders• Land Use Implications• Proposal to Work Together
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Energy Commission
• State licensing authority• 50 MW+ thermal power plants• Related facilities• Time certain process• Public process• Comprehensive review
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California’s Electric System• Over 1,200 electrical generators• Over 38,000 miles of transmission
lines• Linked to western North America• 12.9 million customers• Average use - 624 gigawatt hours / day• Projected peak demand - 58,000 MW• 40% of western U.S. market
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
The Interconnected Western Grid
Northwest
Utah
Arizona
ColoradoID-SPP
BC Hydro Alberta
New Mexico
Wyoming
Southern Nevada
Palo Verde
Page 1
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Peak Load and Capacity Growth in California
462 615 621 672
53,335
54,658
52,195
50,189
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
MW
Cumulative Capacity Additions since 1995 Actual Peak Load Since 1995
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
WASH.+18.3%
ORE.+16.7%
IDAHO+24.3%
NEV.+50.6% UTAH
+23.6% COLO.+23.1%
ARIZ.
+30.4%
TEXAS
+18.0%
FLORIDA+16.8%
GEORGIA+20.2%
N.D.-0.8%
IOWA+3.3%
W. VA.+0.7%
MAINE+2.0%
MASS.+2.6%
R.I.-1.3%
CONN.-0.2%
N.Y.+1.1%
PA+0.9%
Slowest-growing/shrinking statesFastest-growing states
A Country in TransitionPercentage changes in population from April 1, 1990 through July 1, 1999
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Aging FacilitiesPowerPlants
(#)
PowerPlants
(%)
Capacity(MW)
Capacity(%)
Total 971 53,000
Facility Age
Over 40 128 13.2 17,200 32.1
Over 30 181 18.6 26,000 48.6
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Non-Coincident Peak Demand Reserve Margins1993 - 1998
Page 9
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Summer 2001 Coincident Peak DemandUnder Different Temperature Probabilities
And A Functional Competitive Market(MW)
Total Available Supply61,184 MW
Supply LessExpected Outages
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Summer 2001 Coincident Peak DemandUnder Different Temperature Probabilities
And “Outages” Equal to Jan. 11, 2001(MW)
Total Available Supply61,184 MW
Supply LessOutages Reported by CAISO
on Jan. 11, 2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Power Plants Off-Line
• 1999: 1000 - 5000 MW• 2000: 2000 - 10,000 MW• 2001: 10,000 - 15,000 MW
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Options to Resolve Crisis• Conservation
– operations– investment funds
• Increased Generation– peakers– repowers/retool/rerates– baseload– new sites
• Market– debt– market structure– correct market dysfunctions
• Need balanced strategy
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Recent Actions - Supply• New natural gas generation:
– 28 plants approved - 11.283 MW– 1,284 MW to be on-line by 7/1/01– 17 plants in review - 7,335 MW– 46 applications within 3 months - 11,664 MW
• New renewable generation– 217 MW on-line this summer
• State (DWR) contracting for power
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Power Plants Approved by the CECSince April, 1999
PROJECT / OWNER Size(MW)
Location(County) Status
Sutter Power 500 Sutter Expected On-Line Date July 1, 2000
Los Medanos 559 Contra Costa Expected On-Line Date July 1, 2000
La Paloma 1,048 Kern Under Construction 65% Complete
Delta Energy 880 Contra Costa Under Construction 40% Complete
High Desert 720 San Bernardino Under Construction 1% Complete
Moss Landing 1,060 Monterey Under Construction 15% Commplete
Sunrise 320 Kern Expected On-Line Date August 1, 2001
Huntington Beach 450 Orange Under Construction
Blythe 520 Riverside Under Construction 1% Complete
Pastoria 750 Kern Financing
Midway-Sunset 500 Kern Financing
Mountainview 1,056 San Bernardino Financing
Otay Mesa 510 San Diego Financing
Three Mountain 500 Shasta Financing
Contra Costa 530 Contra Costa Financing
Elk Hills 500 Kern Financing
Total New CapacityApproved 10,403
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Emergency Power Plants Approved by CEC
Project / Owner (MW) Location(County) Status
United Golden Gate (51) San Mateo No site controlHanford SPPE (99) Kings Being modified
Wildflower Larkspur 90 San Diego Under ConstructionWildflower Indigo 135 Riverside Under ConstructionAlliance Century 40 San Bernardino Under ConstructionAlliance Drews 40 San Bernardino Under Construction
Calpine King City 50 Monterey Under ConstructionGWF Hanford 99 Kings Under ConstructionCalpine Gilroy 135 Santa Clara Under Construction
Pegasus Energy 180 San Bernardino FinancingCalpeak Escondido 49 San Diego FinancingRamco Chula Vista 62 San Diego Financing
Total 880
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Recent Actions - Process
• Established 4-month process– Peakers
• Established 6-month process– Clean projects
• Prepared Developers Guide– Available on CEC Website at:– www.energy.ca.gov
• Conducted Siting Process OII
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Governor’s Executive Orders
• 6 Executive Orders• Issued February 8• Focused on power plants
– Planning– Siting– Permitting– Construction– Operation
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Governor’s EO’sLicensing
• Maintained 12-month AFC• Maintained 6-month AFC• Reestablished 4-month AFC• Established 21-day emergency
permit• Established 45-day amendment• Established 7-day amendment
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
1 in 5 Year Peak Demand1 in 2 Year Peak Demand
California Load/Resource Balance(ISO area with 7% Operating Reserve at Coincident Peak)
Existing generation excludes2,500 MW for outages
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Value ofEnergy Efficiency
• Reduction in Expected Peak Demand– Jan 2001: -6.2% (-2,091 MW)– Feb 2001: -8.0% (-2,578 MW)– March 2001: -9.2% (-2,967 MW)– April 2001: -9.0% (-2,866 MW)– May 2001: -10.4% (-3,595 MW)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Impact of Conservation
it will result in a demand saving
of 2,000 MW = 4 Big Power Plants
If 10,000,000 households
shut off two 100 Watt light bulbs at peak time,
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Future Forecast
• June could be ugly• July/August are better• 2002 is much better• 2003 could be awash in power• Energy and air quality are now on the
forefront of everyone’s minds
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land UseImplications
• Power plants– Water supply lines– Roads
• Transmission lines• Natural gas pipelines
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land UsePlanning Implications
• Power plants– Difficult to forecast location– Complex issues normally resolved
successfully in licensing case– Planning best handled from a private
developer and land management perspective
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land UsePlanning Implications
• Transmission lines• Determine need for new facilities
– CEC’s OII– WGA’s TL needs study– CEC/LLNL environmental constraints
study• Determine land management
constraints
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land UsePlanning Implications
• Natural gas pipelines• Determine need for new facilities
– CEC’s Natural Gas White Paper– Industry proposals– CEC’s power plant gas demand forecast
• Determine land management constraints
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Interstate Pipeline ProposalsName
New /expansion
Capacity(MMcfd)
On-line Date
Rocky Mountain Supply RegionKern River Gas Transmission Expansion
Expansion135900
July 1, 2001May 2003
Ruby Pipeline New 750 Late 2003Western Canadian Supply Region
PG&E-GTN Pipeline ExpansionExpansionExpansion
42169
1,000
November 2001Summer 2002
Within Next 10 YearsTuscarora Gas Transmission Company PipelineExpansion 96 Early 2003
Southwestern Supply RegionQuestar Southern Trails Pipeline• To California Border• In California to Long Beach
NewNew
90126
Spring 2002Undetermined
El Paso Plains-All American Pipeline New 230 Late August 2001Transwestern Pipeline Expansion 150 Winter 2001North Baja Pipeline New 500 September 2002Otay Mesa Generating Company Pipeline New 110 September 2002Sonoran Pipeline• Phase I to CA Border• Phase II in CA to Bay Area
NewNew
7501,500
Summer 2003Undetermined
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Intrastate Pipeline ProposalsName of Pipeline New /
ExpansionCapacity(MMcfd)
On-line Date
PG&E Intrastate Pipeline -Redwood Path (Line 400-401) fromMalin -Baja Path (Line 300) from Topock
ExpansionExpansion
400200
UndeterminedUndetermined
SoCal Gas Intrastate Pipeline -Kramer Junction -Wheeler Ridge (from Kern/Mojaveand PG&E) -North Needles (from Transwestern) -Line 85 (California Production) - Line 6900 from SoCal Gas to SDG&E
ExpansionExpansionExpansionExpansionExpansion
20085504070
December 2001December 2001December 2001December 2001
July 2001
SDG&E Intrastate Pipeline Various proposals under
consideration in a CPUC proceedingExpansion 140 - 220 Undetermined
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land UsePlanning Proposal
• Need to work together– Energy needs– Land management constraints
• Propose to initiate process in Fall 2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land UsePlanning Proposal
• Objective: meet reasonable energy facility needs in a manner sensitive to safety, environmental, and land management constraints
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Questions?