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TRANSCRIPT
Dalan Bronson
November 2006
Calgary Real Estate Market
2
Agenda
Calgary and Alberta metrics vs. the rest of CanadaWhat’s happening in retail today?
3
Unemployment Rate – Sept. 2006
3.6%
8.1%
5.7%
7.3%
4.3%4.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver
Source: Statistics Canada
4
Index Growth Median Family Income
100
105
110
115
120
125
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Montreal Ottawa Toronto Calgary Edmonton Vancouver
Source: Statistics Canada
5
Average and Median Debt
58,441
42,297
63,579
74,860
55,155
29,000
38,50037,000
21,600
40,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Alberta Quebec Ontario B.C. Canada
Average Median
Source: Statistics Canada
6
Retail Sales Growth YTD 2006/2005
17.7%
5.1% 4.6%
7.6% 7.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Alberta Quebec Ontario B.C. Canada
Source: Statistics Canada
7
Retail Sales Growth
6.3%5.1% 5.0%
6.2%
16.7%
12.3%12.9%
7.6%
17.3%
4.7%4.7%4.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver
2005/2004 YTD 2006/2005
Source: Statistics Canada, Kubas ConsultantsNote: YTD 2006 = June
8
Retail Sales (in billions)
15.0
27.9
60.4
10.9
42.1
18.4 17.5
30.1
63.2
11.4
43.9
21.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver
2005 2006 Est.
Source: Statistics Canada, Kubas Consultants
9
Retail Sales Growth Q2 2006/2005
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
13.0%
18.0%
23.0%
28.0%
33.0%
Alberta Quebec Ontario B.C. Canada
Furniture Home Furnishings Home CentresSupermarkets Pharmacies ClothingShoes/Jewellery General Merchandise Sporting GoodsEating and Drinking
Source: Statistics Canada
10
Household Expenditure – % of Total Consumption
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver
Food Shelter Furnishings ClothingTransportation Recreation Tobacco/Alcohol
Source: Statistics Canada
11
Streetfront Vacancy
0.3%
1.8%
3.7%
2.2%
3.7%
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 Q3 2006
12
The Changing World
Demographic changes Aging populationChanging family make-upEthnic trendsTime pressuresChanging shopping habitsConsumer attitude adjustment
13
Changing Retail Scene
Department storesWal-MartDollar storesPower centresBlurring of retail categoriesMulti-channel
14
Blurring of Retail Categories
Retailers are moving into new categories:– Wal-Mart (grocery/fast food/services)– Loblaws (drugs/HBA/banking/gas stations)– Shoppers Drug Mart (convenience store)
Becoming more of a: – one-stop offering– solutions provider
Meeting needs of time-starved consumersBut…added confusion?
15
The Real Canadian Superstore
16
PC Housewares
17
Chico’s – for the Aging Boomer
18
Experience Based
19
Personalized and Customized
Trading Up, Trading Down
21
Coach
22
Whole Foods
23
Permission to Indulge
24
Costco
Tailored to my Needs –Format Specific and Cultural Trends
26
Neighborhood Market
27
LuLu Lemon – PR Event
28
Best Buy
29
Best Buy “Jill” Concept
30
Best Buy “Ray” Concept
31
Best Buy
32
The New Apple Store
33
Apple
34
Cross-channel Influence is Significant(% of customers that looked for or purchased something previously seen in another channel)
Ονλινε
Base:Visited storesVisited WebsiteReceived catalogue
26%
Store Catalogue
26%
39%
68%
25%
22%
VisitBuy
BuyVisit
Example:68% of all online customers who received a catalogue, first shopped the catalogue then bought online
Source: The Multi-channel Retail Report, J.C. Williams Group, BizRate.com, Shop.org
35
The Retail Lifecycle
Sales & Profit Growth
Emerging Growth Maturity Decline
Home Delivery
Dollar Stores
Drug Stores
Department Stores
Supercenters
Supermarkets
Automated Shopping
Discount Stores
Digital Download
E-commerce
Hypermarkets
Furniture Stores
Home Improvement
C-Stores
Gen. Merch.Quick
Casual Rest.
Fast Food
Music Retailers
Teen Specialty Retailers
Office Superstores
Toy Superstores
Lifestyle Retailers
Wholesale Clubs
Variety StoresPersonalization/ Customization
Hard Discount
The Retail Shop.Toronto, Chicago, Montrealwww.jcwg.com(416) 921-4181Dalan [email protected]
Thank you and keep in touch.