cademartori great marshsymposium-1
TRANSCRIPT
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Gregg Cademartori Planning Director City of Gloucester
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Gregg Cademartori Planning Director City of Gloucester
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• Why Gloucester – Why Now – What’s been done? • Consensus Building Institute – Managing Risk (2009) • Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (2010) • State Climate Change Adaptation Report (2009-2011) • Citywide LIDAR and GIS (2011-2012) • NOAA National Climate Assessment (2012) • MG Series and Spring Coastal Processes Forum (2013-2014)
• CZM Coastal Resilience Grants (Resources) • Study Overview – Important elements – public involvement
• Visualizing Change - King Tide the New Norm? (Oct ’14) • Questions
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City of Gloucester
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning
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Section 7 “…consider reasonably foreseeable climate change impacts, including additional greenhouse gas emissions, and effects, such as predicted sea level rise.” Section 9 “…convene an advisory committee to analyze strategies for adapting to the predicted impacts of climate change in the commonwealth.”
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Consensus Building Institute – Managing Risk (2009) • Role play scenarios around
flooding and heat island effects
• Involved chairs and membership of land use boards, Mayor and staff provided roles in day long mock hearing
• “We need better data” to support decisions
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Hazard Mitigation Plan (2010) • Inventoried critical
infrastructure and facilities • Assessed impacts from
multiple hazards • No significant separation of
climate change impacts from extreme weather or flooding
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Climate Change Adaptation Report (2011) • Five areas of focus including: • Natural Resources & Habitat • Key Infrastructure • Human Health & Welfare • Local Economy & Govt. • Coastal Zone
• All focused on the “what’s
number to plan for?”
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Global Mean Sea Level Rise Projections
NOAA Technical Report Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, December 2012
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Maritime Gloucester Winter Coastal Workshops (Winter 14’) Climate Change Workshop • Maritime Gloucester • City of Gloucester • Gloucester UU Church • Coastal Zone Management • 90 participants • Identified need!
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City of Gloucester
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning
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Priority-planning
areas
Project Approach
Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development
Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment
Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies Public Outreach
Probability of occurrence
Con
sequ
ence
of i
mpa
ct
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Priority-planning
areas
Project Approach
Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development
Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment
Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies Public Outreach
Probability of occurrence
Con
sequ
ence
of i
mpa
ct
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Priority-planning
areas
Project Approach
Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development
Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment
Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies
Probability of occurrence
Con
sequ
ence
of i
mpa
ct
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• Inundation maps based on standard “bathtub” model do not reflect dynamic nature of coastal flooding
• Does not account for joint flooding conditions • Does not include effects of infrastructure (e.g., dams)
Comparison of Proposed Methodology to Bathtub Approach
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Storm Climatology Includes both tropical and extra-tropical storm sets
• A Large Statistically robust set of storms
Advantages of Proposed Model
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Gloucester ADCIRC Model (Partial)
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Why do we need a sophisticated approach? The risk is high There are a lot of important factors
Bathymetric effects Storm types and parameters Coastline geometry Infrastructure Frictional effects
Coastal processes (waves, tides, etc.)
Dynamic model answers a number of additional questions
Flooding pathways can be significantly influenced by dynamic processes Achieve more detailed results to answer what is causing the flooding (e.g. waves, winds, etc.) Determine length and volume of flooding Test performance of engineering adaptations
Photo courtesy of outerbanksvoice.com
Advantages of Proposed Model
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Priority-planning
areas
VISUALIZATION
Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development
Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment
Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies
Probability of occurrence
Con
sequ
ence
of i
mpa
ct
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• Quick primer on Gloucester Tides • Frequency of King Tides • Conclude with images
• Beaches, harbors, coves, seawalls, roads, landings, buildings, marshes
• Infrastructure
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Blynman Bridge
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Causeway Street
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Dunfudgin Landing
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Inner Harbor
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Lanes Cove
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Lanes Cove
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Good Harbor
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Drone Flight Martin Del Vecchio
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Infrastructure
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Infrastructure
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Modelling… Assessment…
Adaptation Strategies?
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[email protected] 978-281-9781