c series market forecast - bombardier | · pdf filebut sometimes there’s a shift that...

Ingenuityin Flight.

Progress mostly happens in inches, in tweaks, and in increments.

But sometimes there’s a shift that changes everything. Those leaps

require vision, intelligence, and effort. They require the kind of courage

that made flight possible in the first place. It’s this boldness that drives

Bombardier’s relentless pursuit of excellence, and has seen us create

the cleanest, quietest and most profitable aircraft in the skies.

C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series

Bombardier, and the Evolution of Mobility, are trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. ©2015 Bombardier Inc. All rights

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Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



Ingenuityin Flight.







C Series

Q Series

CRJ Series



MARKET FORECAST2015-2034BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFTCOMMERCIALAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM

BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034

Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and major rail operators), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe”, “continue”, “maintain” or “align”, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation, refer to the respective Guidance and forward-looking statements section in the Aerospace section in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) of the Corporation’s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014.

All amounts in this presentation are expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. C Series, CS300, CS100, CRJ1000, CRJ900, CRJ700, Q400, Bombardier, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft, and The Evolution of Mobility are either Unregistered or Registered Trade-Mark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 2

South Asia and Greater China will be the fastest growing economies

2014 GDP RANK

% CAGR 1.7% 2.5% 2.3% 5.5% 3.4% 3.7% 6.4% 2.4% 4.5%

2034 GDP RANK

AFR

ICA

EURO

PE

MID

DLE

EA

ST

SOUT

H A

SIA

CIS

GRE

ATER

CH

INA

ASI

A P

ACIF

IC

NO

RTH

AM

ERIC

A

LATI

N A

MER

ICA

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

7

8

8

9

9

WORLD REAL GDP GROWTH %

NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST ECONOMIES OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

World Average 3.1%


FUEL PRICES REMAIN VOLATILE BUT ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE IN THE LONG-TERM

Airlines’ expectations of future fuel costs will impact fleet decisions

OIL PRICES [2013 USD]

$0

$30

$60

$90

$120

$150

1995

200

0

200

5

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Annual Energy Outlook 2015

FORECASTACTUAL


MORE SEATS ON AIRCRAFT FLOWN LONGER DISTANCES IS A TREND ACROSS ALL FLEET SEGMENTS

20- to 100-seat aircraft have experienced the greatest shift to larger aircraft

AVERAGE SEATS PER DEPARTURE AVERAGE STAGE LENGTH [MILES]

169

163

4%

150- TO 220- SEATS

135

128

5%

100- TO 150- SEATS

68

56

22%

20- TO 100- SEATS RJ

57

45

25%

20- TO 100- SEATS TP

2005 2014

854853

0%

150- TO 220- SEATS

655619

6%

100- TO 150- SEATS

4%

20- TO 100- SEATS RJ

7%

20- TO 100- SEATS TP

2005 2014

481464

230215


COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET IS BUILDING MOMENTUM

Bombardier is confident in the long-term prospect of our markets

Commercial airlines are profitable

and growing. The industry continues

to evolve to manage growth, volatile fuel

prices and increasing competition.

Most new 60- to 150-seat aircraft

deliveries to mature aviation markets

will replace retiring aircraft fleets.

In emerging markets, demand for air travel

is growing with increasing GDP and

an expanding middle class.

Lower oil prices may permit airlines

to delay the replacement or

retirement of less efficient aircraft types, but in the long-term, fuel

efficiency will remain a key driver of airline

fleet decisions.

Economic and technological

obsolescence, as well as environmental regulations, are

expected to drive aircraft retirements

throughout the forecast.


OUR KEY MARKET DRIVERS SUGGEST A BRIGHT FUTURE FOR COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

$

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION & FEES

SCOPE CLAUSERELAXATION

OIL PRICE& VOLATILITY

MORE EFFICIENTAIRCRAFT

EMERGINGMARKETS

ECONOMICGROWTH

Bombardier’s portfolio of 60- to 150-seat solutions is well positioned to succeed


ECONOMIC GROWTH IS DRIVING COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT PENETRATION WORLDWIDE

20- TO 220-FLEET-SEAT PENETRATION FORECAST [1970-2014 (ACTUAL), 2015-2034 (FORECAST)]

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100

1,0

00

10,0

00

100

,00

0

FORECAST

South Asia

China

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia Pacific

GDP per capita - USD log scale

Flee

t-se

at p

er m

illio

n ca

pit

a -

log

sca

le

Europe

North America

CIS

Removalof Barriers

GDPGrowth

TYPICAL GROWTH PATH

Middle East


E190-E2 E195-E2

60- TO 220-SEAT COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

60- TO 100-SEAT100- TO 150-SEAT 150- TO 220-SEAT

TURBOPROPS REGIONAL JETS

MATURE OEMS

Q400 CRJ700 CRJ900 CRJ1000 CS100 CS300

ATR Airbus

ATR72-600 A319 A320 A321

A319neo A320neo A321neo

Boeing

737-700 737-800 737-900

737 MAX 7 737 MAX 8 737 MAX 9

Embraer

E170 E175 E190 E195

E175-E2

EMERGING OEMS

Mitsubishi

MRJ70 MRJ90 MRJ100

AVIC Comac

MA700 ARJ21-700 ARJ21-900 C919

Sukhoi Irkut

SSJ100-75 SSJ100-95 MS-21-200 MS-21-300

In development

In production

Under study

9

WORLD 60- TO 150-SEAT FLEET FORECASTED TO GROW TO 15,000 UNITS BY 2034

Regional Carriers will continue to up-gauge to 60- to 100-seat aircraftA broad renewal and growth of the 100- to 150-seat fleet is forecasted

20-YEAR COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET FORECAST

Retirements

2024 Fleet

Deliveries

2014 Fleet

100- to 150-seat60- to 100-seat

4,4003,300

8,100

7,000

+

=

-

2,9001,700

6,900

5,700

+=

-

7,300 5,000 15,00012,700Total 60- to 150-seat


ANNUAL 60- TO 150-SEAT REVENUES TO GROW TO $48B IN 2034

TOTAL

$650Billion

20YEARREVENUES

60- TO 100-SEAT TURBOPROPS

60- TO 100-SEAT JETS

100- TO 150-SEAT

$85Billion

$105Billion

$460Billion

$650 billion in revenues in the 60- to 150-seat market over the next 20 years

ANNUAL INDUSTRY REVENUES [$B]

2005-2014 Average 2024 2034

38

1911

52 4 5

5 5

100- TO 150- SEAT

60- TO 100- SEAT JETS

60- TO 100- SEAT TURBOPROPS

$18

$28

$48


100- TO 150-SEAT RENEWAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE

Total 100- to 150-seat Deliveries: 7,000 Units Significant growth opportunity in Greater China

REGIONAL 20-YEAR 100- TO 150-SEAT DELIVERY FORECAST [UNITS, 2014-2034]

LATIN AMERICA

700

GREATER CHINA

1,550CIS350

ASIA PACIFIC500

SOUTH ASIA400

MIDDLE EAST300

AFRICA200

EUROPE

1,100NORTH AMERICA

1,900


MATURE MARKETS’ REGIONAL FLEETS WILL BE RENEWED WITH 60- TO 100-SEAT AIRCRAFT

Total 60- to 100-seat Deliveries: 5,700 Units New regional networks will emerge in fast-growing markets

REGIONAL 20-YEAR 60- TO 100-SEAT DELIVERY FORECAST [UNITS, 2014-2034]

NORTH AMERICA

1,700

LATIN AMERICA

450

EUROPE

1,000

ASIA PACIFIC600

SOUTH ASIA300

MIDDLE EAST150

AFRICA350

CIS250

GREATER CHINA

900


WE HAVE BUILT A LEADING PORTFOLIOOF COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT IN THE60- TO 150-SEAT CATEGORY

MODELS

Q400

MARKET CATEGORY

50- to 90-seatturboprop

MARKET CATEGORY

60- to 100-seatregional jets

MARKET CATEGORY

100- to 160-seatcommercial jets

MODELS

CRJ700, CRJ900CRJ1000

MODELS

CS100CS300

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGESEvery 10 seconds a CRJ Series regional jet takes off from the tarmac somewhere in the world. The family has transalmost 1.6 billion passengers to become the world’s most successful regional jet program. Linking people and communities like no other, the CRJ Series family of regional jets has revolutionized aviation with its proven efficiency, reliability and profitability.

The CRJ Series regional jets share commonality benefits that provide flexibility to operators and allow them to optimize their fleets to meet specific market demands. No other regional aircraft deliver this capability. Optimized for medium-haul regional routes, these aircraft can provide up to 10% cash operating cost advantage over competing jets.

There are three models in the CRJ Series family of aircraft, each with its own distinct advantages. The CRJ700 is the lightest aircraft in its category, delivering impressive efficiency, performance and fuel burn savings. The CRJ900 offers tremendous flexibility and is ideally suited for growing markets, while the CRJ1000, with the highest capacity in the family, delivers the lowest seat-mile cost in the regional jet market and burns up to 13% less fuel than its competitors.

Since its launch, the CRJ Series family of regional jets has stimulated the regional jet market. In North America alone, it accounts for over 20% of all jet departures. Globally, the family operates more than 200,000 flights per month. Simply put: the CRJ Series is efficiency, reliability and performance in numbers.

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGESDesigned as a modern, 21st-century turboprop, the Q400 aircraft is the most recent development in the Q Series family of aircraft. It provides unmatched performance, operational flexibility and passenger comfort. While it’s nimble enough for a steep approach, the Q400 aircraft is also tough enough to land on unpaved run It’s a certified performer at high altitude airports too, like that of La Paz, Bolivia, one of the world’s highest.

Thanks to its combination of turboprop attributes, jet-like features, industry-leading passenger experience and environmental footprint, the Q400 aircraft is exceptionally versatile and can be adapted to a variety of business models. By offering a 30% reduction in fuel burn over the jets it often replaces, the Q400 aircraft radically reduces carbon emissions and increases cost efficiency. Its high-speed cruise -- 160 km/h faster than conventional turboprops -- places the aircraft’s flight time within minutes of jet schedules, at the same seat cost as larger single-aisle jets. Its large propellers operate at a lower RPM, generating more power with less noise and making it a friendly option for city centres.

The Q400 aircraft family includes over 60 owners and operators in almost 40 countries worldwide and the worldwide fleet has logged more than 6 million flight hours. With a dispatch reliability rate of over 99.5%, the aircraft has transported more than 370 million passengers worldwide.

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES The C Series family of aircraft is a 100% all-new design. The CS100 and the larger CS300 aircraft represent the fusion of performance and technology to offer operators potential savings of between USD$ 7.5 to 12 million per aircraft.

In addition to delivering best-in-class economics with the C Series aircraft, Bombardier has placed considerable emphasis on cabin design to ensure an excellent passenger experience. The C Series aircraft’s larger seats, overhead bins and windows create a widebody feel that offers passengers unparalleled comfort.

The CS100 and CS300 aircraft have over 95% parts commonality, as well as the same type rating. The groundbreaking Pratt & Whitney PurePower® PW1500G engine, combined with advanced aerodynamics, delivers reduced fuel burn, noise and emissions, increasing the aircraft’s environmental and social compatibility. By focusing on the 100- to 150-seat market segment, Bombardier has designed the C Series aircraft to deliver unparalleled economic advantage to operators and to open up new opportunities for single-aisle aircraft operations.


RESOURCES

Ascend Fleets IHS Global Insight World Economic Outlook, January 2015InnovataUS Energy Information Administration (EIA)


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