c-roads reference guide - climate interactive€¦ · web viewfigure 3.2 structure of gdp per...

EN-ROADS SIMULATOR REFERENCE GUIDE

July 2017

Lori S. Siegel1, Jack Homer2, Tom Fiddaman3, Stephanie McCauley1, Travis Franck1, Elizabeth Sawin1, Andrew P. Jones1, John Sterman4

1Climate Interactive2Homer Consulting3Ventana Systems4Massachusetts Institute of Technology

En-ROADS simulator Model Reference Guide

Table of Contents

1. Background......................................................................................................................................... 11.1 Purpose and intended use.................................................................................................................... 1

2. Model structure overview.............................................................................................................. 12.1 Simulation method.................................................................................................................................. 12.2 Scope & detail........................................................................................................................................... 22.3 Organization.............................................................................................................................................. 4

3. Formulation of Demand.................................................................................................................. 43.1 Population, GDP, and Capital...............................................................................................................43.2 Fuel and Carrier Choice...................................................................................................................... 173.3 Feedbacks to Capital and GDP..........................................................................................................443.4 Energy Intensity of New Capital.......................................................................................................563.5 Long Term Energy Requirements...................................................................................................64

4. Formulation of Supply................................................................................................................ 1024.1 Supply of Extracted Fuels, Delivered Fuels, and Electricity Generation..........................1024.2 Drivers of Cost of Supply.................................................................................................................. 134

4.2.1 Tech Effect, Dispatchability, and Overheating Effects on Cost......................................................1394.2.2 Resource Constraints.......................................................................................................................................151

4.3 Embodied Supply Costs and Efficiencies....................................................................................1624.4 Electric Supply Choice....................................................................................................................... 185

4.4.1 Cost Effect Attractiveness..............................................................................................................................1854.4.2 Performance Standard, Network Effect Attractiveness, and Other Non-Cost Policies.......199

5. Market Clearing and Utilization Formulation....................................................................2075.1 Market Price of Extracted Fuel...................................................................................................... 2075.2 Electricity and Delivered Fuels......................................................................................................214

5.2.1 Market Clearing and Utilization of Electricity and Delivered Fuels............................................2145.2.2 Tax and Subsidy Adjustments to Market Price....................................................................................2375.2.3 Ratio of Actual to Expected Energy Costs to Consumers.................................................................248

6. Investment Formulation............................................................................................................ 265

7. Emissions Formulation.............................................................................................................. 2707.1 Emissions from Energy Production..............................................................................................2717.2 Emissions from Energy Consuming Capital...............................................................................2717.3 Emissions from Agriculture and Waste......................................................................................2717.4 Land Use CO2 Emissions................................................................................................................... 3167.5 Specified Emissions......................................................................................................................... g316

8. Carbon cycle................................................................................................................................... 3238.1.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................3238.1.2 Structure............................................................................................................................................................... 323

8.2 Other greenhouse gases................................................................................................................... 3388.2.1 Other GHGs included in CO2equivalent emissions.............................................................................3388.2.2 Montréal Protocol Gases................................................................................................................................349

8.3 Cumulative Emissions....................................................................................................................... 349

9. Climate............................................................................................................................................. 3519.1 Introduction......................................................................................................................................... 3519.2 Structure............................................................................................................................................... 351


10. Calibration and Initialization.............................................................................................. 366

11. References.................................................................................................................................. 393

1. Background

1.1 Purpose and intended use

The En-ROADS simulator is a simple energy system model intended for interactive scenario exploration. It helps users to think about:

Dynamics of capital stock turnover

Growth, energy intensity and carbon intensity (elements of the Kaya identity) as drivers of emissions

Implications of technological lock-in to particular technologies

Effective combinations of supply-side vs. demand-side, or technology-driven vs. incentive-driven policies

The scale of economic and emissions changes required to meet climate goals

In the interest of simplicity, the model includes only simple structures for economic feedbacks, primarily the effect of energy prices on the growth rate of the aggregate economy and the impacts of climate on the economy. Due to the lack of rigour to date in calibration of these feedbacks, it is not yet suitable for exploring optimal tradeoffs between mitigation and climate impacts.

2. Model structure overview

2.1 Simulation method

En-ROADS simulations run from the year 1990 through the year 2100. Model values are updated every 0.125 years (∆t) and reported every 0.25 years. The very short ∆t is necessary to avoid model error resulting from the stiffness in the system, i.e., both short and long term dynamics.

The model is an ordinary differential equation system, solved by Euler integration. No intertemporal or short-term equilibrium is assumed. Decisions about energy sources and intensities in the model are represented by simple heuristics with myopic expectations.


2.2 Scope & detail

The model represents key processes in the energy system for a single, global region. Distinctions among regions are obviously important in the real world, but would considerably complicate the simple accounting framework of the model, particularly by introducing trade issues, rendering it less useful for rapid scenario experimentation. Figure 2.1 summarizes the energy flows through the system.

Table 2-1. Scope

Endogenous Excluded

Energy source choice

Energy carrier choice

Energy intensity

Energy variable and capital costs

Price, capacity, and utilization of extracted fuels

Price, capacity, and utilization of delivered fuels

Price of electricity and capacity and utilization of each source

Energy technology (learning by doing)

Energy R&D

Nonrenewable resource depletion

Renewable resource saturation

CCS

GHG & climate dynamics

Population

GDP

Inventories

Energy storage

Labor


Figure 2.1 Energy Flows

Hydro

Nuclear

Stationary• Electric• Non-Elec

Mobile• Electric• Non-Elec

ElectricityProduction• Elec thermal • CCS• Renewables• Hydro• New Tech• Nuclear

Nonelectric Consumption

s

Oil

NaturalGas

Coal

Biofuels

Extracted Fuels

s

Oil

NaturalGas

Coal

Biofuels

Delivered Fuels Carriers Demand

Renewables (Solar, Wind, Geothermal)

New Tech


2.3 Organization

The En-ROADS simulator is a synthesis of several sub-models.

Demand Fuel choice for nonelectric demand Carrier choice between electric and nonelectric energy Supply of electricity sources Supply of delivered fuels Supply of extracted fuels Dispatch Supply marginal and embodied capital costs Supply marginal variable costs Pricing and utilization Resources Emissions of CO2 from energy Emissions of CO2 from land use Emissions of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6, and HFCs); C-ROADS climate modules

o Carbon cycleo Cycles of other GHGs;o Global Average Surface Temperature;o Sea level riseo Ocean pH

3. Formulation of Demand1

3.1 Population, GDP, and Capital

The demand sector defines the global energy demand for mobile (transportation), residential and commercial, and industry end uses, all of which may be met by electric and non-electric carriers. The model determines the energy demand according to the stock of energy-consuming capital and its associated energy requirements.

Capital grows according to GDP as calculated by specified population scenarios and GDP per capita rates. The capital-output ratio is assumed to be fixed such that capital and GDP rates are equivalent. However, this assumption is no longer valid if the sensitivity parameters of feedback to capital-

1 In this section sub-models are written in bold, and model variables are written in italic.


output ratio are changed from the default of 0. Energy requirements are embodied in the capital stock at the time of investment, which introduces a lag between the energy intensity of new capital and the average energy intensity of the capital stock.

The energy intensity of new capital is governed by a response to the average market price of energy carriers and an exogenous user-specified technology trend.

The demand sector includes energy intensity of new and average energy consuming capital, which is disaggregated into three vintages, original energy requirements of each vintage, and the actual energy requirements of each vintage accounting for retrofits. The model structure is shown in Figure 3.14 through Figure 3.8. Capital and energy requirements of that capital are disaggregated by end use (residential & commercial, industry, and mobile), as well as by carrier (nonelectric and electric). The nonelectric carrier is further disaggregated by fuel type (coal, oil, gas, and biofuels). The model carefully tracks final and primary energy demand, where the former is the energy needed to meet demand and the latter is the energy needed to be generated to meet demand accounting for thermal efficiency that is less than 100% and other losses.


Figure 3.2 Structure of Population

Globalpopulation

Populationscenario

US populationscenario

EU populationscenario

China populationscenario

India populationscenario

Other Developedpopulation scenario

Other Developingpopulation scenario

Population scenariosemi agg

Global populationscenario

Population

UN projectedpopulation

Weight to high

Weight to lowPopulationscenario

<Time>

Year to start popforecastpeople per

thousand people

Choose populationby region

Semi aggpopulation LOW

Semi aggpopulation MED

Semi aggpopulation HIGH

Semi agg UNPopulation

Population rate ofchange

<100 percent>

<Time>

Pop in first GDPprojection year

Pop rate of change in firstyear

<TIME STEP>

Global pop afterone year

Global pop in firstGDP projection year

Pop after one year

<INITIAL TIME>

<One year>

<One year>

<Last GDPhistoric year>

Global populationin billions <billion people>


Figure 3.3 Structure of GDP per Capita and GDP

US change in GDPper capita rate

EU change in GDPper capita rate

China change in GDPper capita rate

India change in GDPper capita rate

Other Developed changein GDP per capita rate

Other Developing changein GDP per capita rate

Initial GDP percapita rate global

GDP per capitarate regional

Semi Agg GDPper capita Semi Agg GDP from

population

Choose GDP percapita rates by region

Projected GDPper capitaregionalChange in GDP per

capita regional

<100 percent>

<Time>

<B2011 PPP>

<Population>

Billion per trilliondollars

<Time>

Weight on InitialGrowth Rate

GDP per Capita Long RunDuration from Start Year

Long term GDP perCapita Rate

Time to reach long termGDP per capita rate

Switch for GDPConvergence

<TIME STEP>


Last historic GDP

<Pop in last GDPhistoric year>

Global firstprojected GDP

Calculated GDPrate of change

Initial GDP rate ofchange

<Global GDPcalculated>

<Time>

Historic GDP afterone year

<Pop after oneyear>

Global GDP afterone year

<INITIAL TIME>GDP rate of change

in first year

<One year>

<Overall adjustmentsto GDP rate>



Long term GDP percapita rate global

Projected GDPper capita

globalChange in GDP percapita global

<100 percent>

<Globalpopulation>

GDP from globalGlobal GDP per pop

in first year<Global pop in lastGDP historic year>

<100 percent>

GDP per capita rateglobal

Global GDP percapita calculated

<Time>

<Last historicGDP>

Global GDPcalculated

GDP from regions

Last GDP historicyear

<M2011 PPP>

<GDP fromregions>

<One year>

<M2011 PPP>

Hist and projglobal GDP

Hist semi agg GDP<M2011 PPP>

<T$ 2011 PPP>

Switch to change GDPper capita rate over time

BAU GDP percapita rate global

Ratio of long term to initialGDP per capita rate global

GDP per capita rateadjustment GDP per Capita

rate Gap

GDP per capitarate

Change in GDP percapita rate

<Time>

Initial regional GDPper capita rate <Choose GDP per

capita rates by region>BAU Initial GDP percapita rate semi agg

Hist global GDPT2011 PPP

<T$ 2011 PPP>

Hist global GDP

Semi agg historicGDP per capita

Initial GDP per capitarate semi agg

Last historic GDPper capita

<Interpolate>


Time to change GDPper capita rate

<Time to change GDPper capita rate>

<million people>

<million people>

<million people>

<Semi aggpopulation MED>


Figure 3.4 Structure of GDP per Capita Measures

<Total elec energyconsuming capital for

each end use>

Calculated capitalgrowth rate

<100 percent><INITIAL TIME>

<One year>

<Time>

<Initial GDP rate ofchange>

GDP per capita relative toinitial Developed GDP per

capita

Initial developedGDP per capita

Global GDP

GDP rate of change

<100 percent>

<Time>

<INITIAL TIME>

<One year>

<Population>

<T2011 PPP>

<Globalpopulation>

<T2011 PPP>

Global GDP percapita

GDP per capitarate of change

<One year>

<100 percent>

<Semi Agg GDPfrom population>

<Choose GDP percapita rates by region>

<GDP fromregions>

<Global GDPcalculated>

<Switch for GDPConvergence>

<Initial GDP rate ofchange>


Table 3-2 Population and GDP Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values UnitsYear to start pop

forecastYear to start the population forecast rather than use history 2015 Year

Global population scenario

Determines future of global population based on UN projections: 1=low UN scenario; 2=medium UN scenario; 3=high UN scenario

1-3 2 dmnl

Population scenario semi agg[Semi Agg]

Determines future of population for each region based on UN projections: 1=low UN scenario; 2=medium UN scenario; 3=high UN scenario

1-3 2 Dmnl

Choose population by region Select 1 to set the population by country/region. 0-1 0 Dmnl

Choose GDP per capita rates by region

Select 1 to set GDP/capita rates by country/region. 0-1 0 Dmnl

Last GDP historic year Last year of historical GDP data 2015 Year

Switch to change GDP per capita rate over time

Defaults to having the same GDP per capita growth rate, equal to the initial GDP per capita rate. If set to 1 instead, then the rate changes from the initial to the long term over the specified duration.

0-1 0 Dmnl

BAU GDP per capita rate global

GDP per capita rate from the year historical data is no longer available (2015) through the Time to change GDP per capita rate.

12.7 Percent/year

Time to change GDP per capita rate Year that the specified GDP per capita rate starts 2015-

2100 2015 Year

Initial GDP per capita rate global

Starting in the year that the specified GDP per capita rate starts, the annual percent growth rate of GDP/capita if the rates are chosen globally. Consistent with recent trends

0-10 2.7 Percent/year


Table 3-2 Population and GDP Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitsfrom World Development Indicators (2015) and with the EMF27 suite’s median global GDP/capita rates.

Long term GDP per capita rate global

Long term growth rate of GDP/capita if the rates are chosen globally. Consistent with the EMF27 suite’s median global GDP/capita rates.

0-10 1 Percent/year

Initial GDP per capita rate semi agg[Semi Agg]

GDP per capita rate for each region to be consistent with recent trends from World Development Indicators (2015)

0-20 Percent/year

US 1.5EU 1.8

China 7.9India 6.0

Other Developed 2.3Other Developing 1.8

Regional ratio of long term to initial GDP per capita rate

Long term fraction of the initial GDP/capita rates if the rates are chosen regionally. -1-1 0.7 Dmnl

Switch for GDP Convergence

0 = GDP per capita grows as specified. 1 = GDP per capita converges from below to a target (growth rates for richer nations fall gradually to zero as they approach the target).

0-1 0 Dmnl

GDP per Capita Long Run Duration from Start Year

The duration from the GDP change start year in which growth reaches the long-term GDP/capital growth rate. 1-150 100 Year

GDP per Capita Convergence Time

The time period over which the gap in GDP/Capita should be closed (assumed linear). 1-100 100 Year

Target GDP per Capita The target for GDP per capita convergence 1-1e6 80000

$ 2011 PPP/(Year*person)


Table 3-3. Population and GDP Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Units

Population scenario[Semi Agg]

Determines the UN population scenario for each region according to either the global or regional inputs.

INITIAL(IF THEN ELSE(Choose population by region=0, Global population scenario, Population scenario semi agg[Semi Agg]))

Dmnl

UN projected population[Semi Agg]

Projection population for each region according to UN projection United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.

IF THEN ELSE(Population scenario[Semi Agg]<2, Weight to low[Semi Agg]*Semi agg population LOW[Semi Agg]+(1-Weight to low[Semi Agg])*Semi agg population MED[Semi Agg], Weight to high[Semi Agg]*Semi agg population HIGH[Semi Agg]+(1-Weight to high[Semi Agg])*Semi agg population MED[Semi Agg])

thousand people

Population[Semi Agg]

Bridges historical and projected population of each region.

IF THEN ELSE(Time <= Year to start pop forecast, Semi agg UN Population[Semi Agg], UN projected population[Semi Agg]*people per thousand people)

People

Global population SUM(Population[Semi Agg!]) People

Pop after one year[Semi Agg] INITIAL(GET DATA BETWEEN TIMES (Semi agg UN Population[Semi Agg], INITIAL TIME + One year, 1)) People

Global pop after one year SUM(Pop after one year[Semi Agg!]) People

Population rate of change

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=INITIAL TIME+One year, Pop rate of change initial to first GDP projection year, LN(Global population/SMOOTH(Global population,one year))/one year)*"100 percent"

Percent/year

Pop rate of change initial to first INITIAL(LN(Global pop after one year/Global population)/One 1/Year



Parameter Definition UnitsGDP projection year year)

Weight on Initial Growth Rate

The weight on the initial GDP/capital growth rate falls linearly between the change start year and the user-specified year to reach the long-term growth rate.

1-MAX(0,MIN(1,(Time - GDP change start year)/(MAX(TIME STEP, GDP per Capita Long Run Growth Year - GDP change start year))))

Dmnl

GDP per capita rate global

If the Switch to change GDP per capita rate over time is set to 0, then the rate is specified by the initial rate. Otherwise, the growth rate in GDP/Capita is a weighted average of the initial growth rate and the long term growth rate. The weight declines over time as defined in the equation for the weight on initial growth rate.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<MIN(Time to change GDP per capita rate,Last GDP historic year), BAU GDP per capita rate global, Weight on Initial Growth Rate*Initial GDP per capita rate global+(1-Weight on Initial Growth Rate)*IF THEN ELSE(Switch to change GDP per capita rate over time,Long term GDP per capita rate global, Initial GDP per capita rate global*Ratio of long term to initial GDP per capita rate global)*Overall adjustments to GDP rate)

Percent/year

Change in GDP per capita global IF THEN ELSE(Time<Last GDP historic year,0,GDP per capita rate global/"100 percent"*Projected GDP per capita global)

$ 2011 PPP/Year/person/Year

Projected GDP per capita global INTEG(Change in GDP per capita global, Global GDP per pop in first year)

$ 2011 PPP/Year/person

Global GDP per pop in first year Global first projected GDP/Global pop in first GDP projection year*M2011 PPP


Global GDP per capita calculated In En-ROADS Pro, to test the EMF22 Scenarios, the average of the EMF22 models with available carbon price projections




Parameter Definition Unitsoverrides the specified carbon tax.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Last GDP historic year, Hist and proj global GDP/Global population, Projected GDP per capita global)

IF THEN ELSE(EMF scenario>=0, Avg calibration GDP/Global population*T$ 2011 PPP, IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Last GDP historic year, Hist and proj global GDP/Global population, Projected GDP per capita global))

GDP from global Global GDP per capita calculated*Global population/T2011 PPP T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Global GDP calculated IF THEN ELSE(Choose GDP per capita rates by region, GDP from regions, GDP from global) T$ 2011 PPP/Year

GDP per Capita rate gap[Semi Agg]

The gap between the GDP/capita rate target and actual for each region, as a fraction of the actual.

ZIDZ(Long term GDP per Capita Rate-GDP per capita rate[Semi Agg],GDP per capita rate[Semi Agg])

Dmnl

GDP per capita rate adjustment[Semi Agg]

The fractional rate needed to close the gap between actual and target GDP/capita rate.

GDP per Capita rate Gap[Semi Agg]/Time to reach long term GDP per capita rate[Semi Agg]

Percent/year

GDP per capita rate regional[Semi Agg]

Either the unconstrained or constrained rate, adjusted by feedbacks.

GDP per capita rate[Semi Agg]*Overall adjustments to GDP ratePercent/year

Projected GDP per capita regional[Semi Agg]

INTEG(Change in GDP per capita regional[Semi Agg], First projected GDP per capita[Semi Agg])


First projected GDP per capita[Semi Agg]

INITIAL(GET DATA BETWEEN TIMES(Semi agg hist and proj GDP per capita[Semi Agg], Last GDP historic year,Interpolate)*M2011 PPP)





Change in GDP per capita regional[Semi Agg]

Changes at the projected annual rate starting at the first year of projections.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<Last GDP historic year,0,GDP per capita rate regional[Semi Agg]/"100 percent"*Projected GDP per capita regional

[Semi Agg])

$ 2011 PPP/Year/person/year

Semi Agg GDP per capita[Semi Agg]

Bridges historical data with projections.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Last GDP historic year, Semi agg hist and proj GDP per capita[Semi Agg]*M2011 PPP, Projected GDP per capita regional[Semi Agg])


Semi Agg GDP from population[Semi Agg]

GDP = Population * GDP per capita: T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Population[Semi Agg]*Semi Agg GDP per capita[Semi Agg]/B2011 PPP/Billion per trillion dollars

T$ 2011 PPP /Year

GDP from regions

Global GDP as the sum of GDP of all the regions. T$ 2011 PPP/year

SUM(Semi Agg GDP from population[Semi Agg!])

T$ 2011 PPP /Year

GDP rate of change in first year INITIAL(LN(Global GDP after one year/(Hist and proj global GDP/M2011 PPP))/One year) 1/year

Initial GDP rate of change INITIAL(GDP rate of change in first year*"100 percent") percent/Year

Calculated GDP rate of changeIF THEN ELSE(Time<=Last GDP historic year, Historical GDP

rate of change, LN(Global GDP calculated/SMOOTH(Global GDP calculated, one year))/one year)*"100 percent"

percent/year

Global GDP per capita Global GDP/Global population*T2011 PPP $ 2011 PPP/Year/person

Hist and proj global GDP SUM(Hist and proj semi agg GDP[Semi Agg!]) $ 2011 PPP/YearHist and proj semi agg GDP[Semi

Agg]Semi agg hist and proj GDP per capita[Semi Agg]*Semi agg UN

Population[Semi Agg]*M2011 PPP $ 2011 PPP/Year




GDP per capita rate of change in first year

INITIAL(LN((Global GDP after one year/Global pop after one year)/((Hist and proj global GDP/M2011 PPP)/Global population))/One year*"100 percent")

percent/Year

Global GDPIF THEN ELSE(Choose GDP per capita rates by

region :OR:Switch for GDP Convergence, GDP from regions, Global GDP calculated)

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

GDP per capita rate of change

The annual rate of change of GDP per capita.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=INITIAL TIME+One year, GDP per capita rate of change in first year, LN(Global GDP per capita/SMOOTH(Global GDP per capita,One year))/One year*"100 percent")

Percent/year

GDP rate of change

The annual rate of change of GDP.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=INITIAL TIME + One year, Initial GDP rate of change, LN(Global GDP/SMOOTH(Global GDP, One year))/One year*"100 percent")

Percent/year

Global GDP per capita Global GDP/Global population*T2011 PPP $ 2011 PPP/Year/person

Initial developed GDP per capita

Aggregates the GDP per capita for the Developed countries.

SUM(Semi Agg GDP from population[Developed semi agg!])/SUM(Population[Developed semi agg!])*T2011 PPP


GDP per capita relative to initial Developed GDP per capita [EndUseSector]

The global GDP per capita relative to the initial GDP per capita of Developed countries.

Global GDP per capita calculated/Initial developed GDP per capita

dmnl

Desired capital output ratio[EndUseSector]

Adjusts the desired capital output ratio by the overall effects of feedbacks from GDP per capita, energy cost, energy improvement, and temperature change.

$/($/Year)



Parameter Definition UnitsReference capital output ratio[EndUseSector]*Overall adjustments

to capital output ratio[EndUseSector]


Figure 3.5 Structure of Energy Consuming Capital

Capital output ratio

Desired capitalInitial capital

<Initial GDP>

Initial capitaloutput ratioReference capital

output ratio

<Initial sectorshare>

<Overall adjustmentsto capital output ratio>

Desired capitaloutput ratio

<Global GDP>


3.2 Fuel and Carrier Choice

Desired capital is met with electric and nonelectric energy consuming capital. The nonelectric capital is fuel-dependent. The choice between the nonelectric and electric carriers is made in the Carrier choice sector, while the choice between each fuel type for the nonelectric carrier is made in the Fuel choice sector, shown in Figure 3.6 and Figure 3.7.

Shares of fuels and shares of each carrier are allocated on the basis of the relative attractiveness of options according to a logit-type choice function, e.g.,

Share[Electricity] = Attractiveness[Electricity]/(Attractiveness[Electricity]+Attractiveness[Fuels])

Attractiveness is an exponential function of cost (adjusted for end-use efficiency) and a network effect. The network effect captures the impact of the availability of infrastructure (e.g. fueling points for vehicles) on the attractiveness of choosing a particular carrier.

Depending on the costs and sensitivity parameters (which determine cross-elasticities), observed market shares may not correspond with shares that one would expect on the basis of cost alone, assuming equal utility of end-use energy services provided. In that case, differences are presumed to be attributable to shadow prices associated with energy costs that are not directly observed, like the (currently high) cost of batteries in electric vehicles. These unobserved shadow prices are represented explicitly to reconcile shares with costs while providing a level playing field for energy services. Costs associated with electricity use may be reduced by a user-specified technology intervention (Future electrification barrier reduction rate).


Figure 3.6 Structure of Carrier Choice

Carrier end useattractiveness

End use carrier sharecost sensitivity

Indicated carriershare

Carrier bias

Future electrificationbarrier reduction rate Relative

electrificationbarrier

Electrification time

Carrier end-useefficiency

End use cost

Indicated carriershare of serv

<Carrier end-useefficiency>Carrier service

shareEnergy servicerequirements

Total energy servicerequirements

Carrier networkattractiveness

Carrier networksensitivity

Carrier costattractiveness vs

initial

ReferenceCarrier Share

Carrier associateduse cost

Frac associated usecost to use elec

Base associateduse cost

<Total energyrequirements by end use

and carrier>

<Carrier end-useefficiency>

Effective marketprice

Weighted average ofmarket price of nonelec

fuels by end use

<Nonelec pathservice share>

<Market price of deliveredfuels for nonelecconsumption>

Weighted average ofmarket price of nonelec

fuels

<Total energyrequirements by

carrier>Test no new

nonelec stationary

Test no newnonelec mobile

Total Carrier end useattractiveness

Test no newnonelec

Year of non cost policyof carrier choice

stationary

Year of non cost policyof carrier choice mobile

Year of non costpolicy of carrier choice

<Time>

<Market price of electo consumers>


Figure 3.7 Structure of Fuel Choice

Nonelec pathservice share

Fuel costattractiveness vs initial

Reference Nonelecpath share

Indicated fuel shareof serv for nonelec

Fuel share costsensitivity

Total Nonelec fuelrequirements by end use

<Nonelec fuelrequirements by end

use>

Fuel end useattractiveness

Market price ofdelivered fuels for

nonelec consumption

Fuel path networkattractiveness

<Non cost policyDeveloped>

<Percent with non costpolicy in time Developed>

<Percent with non costpolicy in time Developing> <Non cost policy

Developing>

Non cost adjustment toattractiveness of fuel fornoneelec consumption

<Percent of globalenergy from Developed>

<Percent of global energyfrom Developing>

<100 percent>

<Market price ofdelivered fuels to

consumers>

<Effect of performancestandard>

Total fuel end useattractiveness

Fuel networksensitivity

Ratio of price of fuelfor nonelec to elec


Table 3-4 Carrier Choice Sector Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values Units

Base associated use cost[EndUseSector]

Cost to use any energy for each end use. 10 $/GJ

Frac associated use cost to use elec[EndUseSector]

The fraction of the initial average energy cost that is the cost to use a given carrier.

0-5 Dmnl

[Stationary] 0[Mobile] 1

"Carrier end-use efficiency"[EndUseSector,Carrier]

Ratio of energy delivered to energy produced for each end use and carrier.

0-1 Dmnl

[Stationary,NonElec] 0.7[Stationary,Elec] 0.9

[Mobile,NonElec] 0.4[Mobile, Elec] 0.8

Electrification time

Year to reduce electrification barrier to make it easier to electrify energy demanding capital.

2017-2100 2020 Year

Future electrification barrier reduction rate

The rate at which the challenge to shift to electricity sources is removed.

0-0.1 0 1/year

Carrier bias[Carrier]Sets the importance of the cost and network effects for each carrier.

1 Dmnl

End use carrier share cost sensitivity

The strength of the cost effect for preferring a given carrier, i.e., fuel vs. electric, based on cost for each end use.

1-3 1 Dmnl

Carrier network sensitivity

The strength of the network effect for preferring a given carrier as more capacity is provided by that carrier.

0-1 0.2 Dmnl

Test no new nonelec stationary

Non cost policy forcing new energy to not be nonelec for stationary end uses.

0-1 0 Dmnl


Table 3-4 Carrier Choice Sector Parameter Inputs


Test no new nonelec mobile

Non cost policy forcing new energy to not be nonelec for mobile end uses.

0-1 0 Dmnl

Year of non cost policy of carrier choice stationary

Year starting the non cost policy to force no new energy for stationary end uses to be nonelectric.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Year of non cost policy of carrier choice mobile

Year starting the non cost policy to force no new energy mobile end uses to be nonelectric.

2017-2100 2017 Year


Table 3-5. Carrier Choice Calculated Parameters


Indicated carrier share of serv[EndUseSector,Carrier]

The fraction of energy used by each carrier for each end use.

ZIDZ(Carrier end use attractiveness[EndUseSector,Carrier], Total Carrier end use attractiveness[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Indicated carrier share[EndUseSector,Carrier]

The fraction of actual energy provided by each carrier for each end use, accounting for the specific end use efficiency.

ZIDZ((Indicated carrier share of serv[EndUseSector,Carrier]/"Carrier end-use efficiency"[EndUseSector,Carrier])

,SUM(Indicated carrier share of serv[EndUseSector,Carrier!]/"Carrier end-use efficiency"[EndUseSector,Carrier!]))

Dmnl

Total Carrier end use attractiveness [EndUseSector]

For each end use, the sum of the attractiveness of both carriers.

SUM(Carrier end use attractiveness[EndUseSector,Carrier!])

Dmnl

Carrier end use attractiveness[EndUseSector,Carrier]

A measure of how preferable one carrier is over another for each end use.

Carrier bias[Carrier]*Reference Carrier Share[EndUseSector,Carrier]

*Carrier cost attractiveness[EndUseSector,Carrier]

*Carrier network attractiveness[EndUseSector,Carrier]

Dmnl

Carrier cost attractiveness vs initial[EndUseSector,Carrier]

For each end use, the preference of each carrier relative to the initial conditions based on the greater cost being less preferable.

(End use cost[EndUseSector,Carrier]/INIT(End use cost[EndUseSector,Carrier]))^(-

Dmnl



Parameter Definition UnitsEnd use carrier share cost sensitivity)

Carrier network attractiveness[EndUseSector,Carrier]

For each end use, the preference of each carrier as more capacity is provided by that carrier.

EXP(Carrier network sensitivity*(Carrier service share[EndUseSector,Carrier]-INIT(Carrier service share[EndUseSector,Carrier])))

Dmnl

Energy service requirements[EndUseSector,Carrier]

Energy services provided by energy requirements for each end use by each carrier.

Total energy requirements by end use and carrier[EndUseSector,Carrier] *"Carrier end-use efficiency"[EndUseSector,Carrier]

EJ/Year

Total energy service requirements[EndUseSector]

Energy services provided by energy requirements for each end use by both carriers together.

SUM(Energy service requirements[EndUseSector,Carrier!])

EJ/Year

Carrier service share[EndUseSector,Carrier]

For each end use, the fraction of energy provided by each carrier.

Energy service requirements[EndUseSector,Carrier]/Total energy service requirements[EndUseSector]

Dmnl

Reference carrier share[EndUseSector,Carrier]

For each end use, the initial fraction of energy provided by each carrier.

INITIAL(Carrier service share[EndUseSector,Carrier])

Dmnl

Reference sector cost[EndUseSector]

Initial cost of energy for each end use.

INITIAL(SUM(End use cost[EndUseSector,Carrier!]*Reference Carrier Share[EndUseSector,Carrier!]))

$/GJ

Effective market price The effective market price to consumers of each carrier considering the price and the end use efficiency for each carrier



Parameter Definition Unitsby end use.

Market price of elec to consumers/"Carrier end-use efficiency"[EndUseSector,Elec]

Weighted average of market price of nonelec fuels by end use[EndUseSector

The weighted average of market price of delivered fuels by end use sector according to the fuel share of the new nonelectric energy.

SUM(Market price of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[FuelPath!]*Nonelec path service share[EndUseSector, FuelPath!])

Weighted average of market price of nonelec fuels

The weighted average of market price of delivered fuels according to the fuel share of the new nonelectric energy.

SUM(Weighted average of market price of nonelec fuels by end use[EndUseSector!]*Total energy requirements by end use and carrier[EndUseSector!,NonElec])/Total energy requirements by carrier[NonElec]

Relative electrification barrier

A factor increasing the cost of the electric carrier from the initial carrier associated use cost, thereby making electric energy paths less attractive than fuel energy paths.

INTEG(-STEP(Future electrification barrier reduction rate, Electrification time)*Relative electrification barrier, 1)

Dmnl

Carrier associated use cost [EndUseSector,Carrier]

Cost of ancillary capital or other inputs needed to deliver end use services (e.g., the motor needed to burn the fuel to generate the power that gets to the wheels)

$/GJ

[EndUseSector,NonElec] Base associated use cost[EndUseSector][EndUseSector,Elec] INIT(Effective market

price[EndUseSector,Elec])*Frac



Parameter Definition Unitsassociated use cost to use elec[EndUseSector]*Relative electrification barrier[EndUseSector]+Base associated use cost

Test no new nonelecApplies factor unrelated to cost that

demands no new investment in nonelec energy.

Dmnl

[NonElec, Mobile]IF THEN ELSE(Time>Year of non cost

policy of carrier choice[Mobile], Test no new nonelec mobile, 0)

[NonElec, Stationary]IF THEN ELSE(Time>Year of non cost

policy of carrier choice[Stationary], Test no new nonelec stationary, 0)

[Elec, EndUseSector] 0Year of non cost policy of carrier

choiceYear starting the non cost policy to force

no new energy to be nonelectric. Year

[Stationary] Year of non cost policy of carrier choice stationary

[Mobile] Year of non cost policy of carrier choice mobile


Table 3-6 Fuel Choice Parameter Inputs


Fuel share cost sensitivity

The strength of the cost effect for preferring a given fuel type for nonelectric consumption, i.e., coal vs. oil vs. gas vs. biofuel, based on cost for each end use.

0-3 1 Dmnl

Fuel network sensitivity

The strength of the network effect for preferring a given fuel type for nonelectric consumption as more capacity is provided by that fuel.

0-1 0.2 Dmnl

Ratio of price of fuel for nonelec to elec[FuelPath]

The ratio of fuel price for nonelec consumption to the average price of delivered fuel.

1-3 2, 1, 1.5, 1.5 Dmnl


Table 3-7. Fuel Choice Calculated Parameters


Indicated fuel share of serv for nonelec [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The fraction of new nonelectric energy demand by each fuel type for each end use.

Fuel end use attractiveness[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

/Total fuel end use attractiveness[EndUseSector]

Dmnl

Fuel end use attractiveness[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

A measure of how preferable one fuel type is over another for each end use for nonelectric consumption, based on the cost and network attractiveness and non cost policies (defined in Section 4.4.2).

Reference Nonelec path share[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Fuel cost attractiveness vs initial[FuelPath]*Fuel path network attractiveness[EndUseSector,FuelPath] *Non cost adjustment to attractiveness of fuel for noneelec consumption[FuelPath]*Effect of performance standard[FuelPath]

Dmnl

Fuel cost attractiveness vs initial[FuelPath]

The preference of each fuel type for nonelectric consumption relative to the initial conditions based on the greater cost being less preferable.

(Market price of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[FuelPath]/INIT(Market price of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[FuelPath]))^(-Fuel share cost sensitivity)

Dmnl

Market price of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[FuelPath]

Maps the market price of delivered fuels to consumers from the respective fuel paths and accounts for the ratio of fuel price for nonelec consumption to the average price of delivered fuel.

$/GJ



Parameter Definition UnitsMarket price of delivered fuels to

consumers[Rnonelec]*Ratio of price of fuel for nonelec to elec[FuelPath]

Fuel path network attractiveness[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

For each end use, the preference of each fuel type for nonelectric consumption as more capacity is provided by that fuel type.

EXP(Fuel network sensitivity*(Nonelec path service share[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-INIT(Nonelec path service share[EndUseSector,FuelPath])))

Dmnl

Total fuel end use attractiveness[EndUseSector]

For each end use, the sum of the attractiveness for all fuel types.

SUM(Fuel end use attractiveness[EndUseSector,FuelPath!])

Dmnl

Nonelec fuel requirements by end use [EndUseSector,FuelPath]fs

Fuel requirements of capital using nonelectric energy by end use, calculated as the sum of those requirements in each vintage of capital.

Nonelec Fuel requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec Fuel requirements of capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec Fuel requirements of capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

EJ/Year

Total energy service requirements[EndUseSector]

Energy services provided by energy requirements for each end use by both carriers together.

SUM(Energy service requirements[EndUseSector,Carrier!])

EJ/Year

Carrier service shareEndUseSector,FuelPath]

For each end use, the fraction of nonelectric energy provided by each fuel type.

Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

/Total Nonelec fuel requirements by end

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsuse[EndUseSector]

Reference Nonelec path share[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Cost to use any energy for each end use.

Nonelec path service share[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

$/GJ

Non cost adjustment to attractiveness of fuel for noneelec consumption[FuelPath]

Applies factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given fuel type, as defined in Section 4.4.2.

1-(((1-Non cost policy Developed[FuelPath])*Percent of global energy from Developed*(Percent with non cost policy in time Developed/"100 percent")+(1-Non cost policy Developing[FuelPath])*Percent of global energy from Developing*(Percent with non cost policy in time Developing/"100 percent"))/"100 percent")

Dmnl


Figure 3.8 Structure of Vintage Initialization

Relative initial capitalin vintage 1



Frac initial capital invintage 1



Frac initial energy reqin vintage 2


Relative initial energyintensity of capital 2




<Historic rate ofdecrease of energy

intensity>Sum of relativeinitial capital

Sum of relative initialenergy

Effective vintage 1lifetime

<Effective capitallifetime>




<100 percent>

<100 percent>

<Vintage 1lifetime>

<Vintage 1lifetime><Vintage 2

lifetime>

<Capital lifetime>

<GDP rate ofchange>


Figure 3.9 Structure of Electric Energy Consuming Capital

Elec energyconsuming capital 1

Installing eleccapital

Elec aging 1 to 2

Capital lifetime

Initial sector share

Elec energyconsuming capital 2

Vintage 1 lifetime Vintage 2 lifetime

Vintage 3 lifetime

Elec earlydiscarding 1


Fractional earlydiscard rate 1

Fractional earlydiscard rate 2

Replace earlydiscards Fractional early

discard rate 3

Elec energyconsuming capital 3Elec aging 2 to 3


<Frac initial capital invintage 1>

Elec retiring

Initial elec capitalby sector

Initial elec capital 1 Initial elec capital 2 Initial elec capital 3

<Frac initial capital invintage 2> <Frac initial capital in

vintage 3>

<Elec earlydiscarding 2>


<Capital lifetime>

<Elec retiring>

<Capital lifetime>

<Initial elec capitalby sector>

Capital elec discardingrate due to higher costs 2



Adjustment to energyconsuming capital

<Adjusted elecvintage 3 lifetime>

<Fractional shutdown dueto temperature feedbacks>

<Fractional shutdown dueto temperature feedbacks>



<Effect of elec energycost on capital 1 lifetime>



<Initial capital>

<Desired capital>

Time to adjust energyconsuming capital

Initial fraction ofstationary types

<Indicated carriershare>

<Total energy consumingcapital for each end use>


Table 3-8 Energy Consuming Capital Inputs


Initial sector share [Mobile]

Initial fraction of capital that is used for mobile end uses, i.e., transportation. 0.2 Dmnl

Initial fraction of stationary types[Residential and Commercial]

Initial fraction of stationary capital that is used for residential and commercial end uses. 0.5 Dmnl

Capital lifetime[EndUseSector]

Time that the energy consuming capital for each end use is active before being retired. 10-100 Years

[Residential and Commercial] 30

[Industry] 30[Mobile] 15

Time to adjust energy consuming capital

Time to adjust stock of energy consuming capital to desired level. 1-4 1 Year

Fractional early discard rate 1

The forced ratio of capital in vintage 1 that is lost to factors other than aging to the total capital in vintage 1. When set to 0, no capital in vintage 1 is lost to early discarding.

0-1 0 Dmnl


The forced ratio of capital in vintage 2 that is lost to factors other than aging to the total capital in vintage 1. When set to 0, no capital in vintage 1 is lost to early discarding.

0-1 0 Dmnl


The forced ratio of capital in vintage 3 that is lost to factors other than aging to the total capital in vintage 1. When set to 0, no capital

0-1 0 Dmnl

Figure 3.10 Structure of NonElectric Energy Consuming Capital

NonElec energyconsuming

capital by fuel 1Installing fuelcapital

NonElec by fuelaging 1 to 2


capital by fuel 2

NonElec by fuelearly discarding 1



capital by fuel 3NonElec by fuelaging 2 to 3


<Frac initial capitalin vintage 1>

NonElec by fuelretiring

Initial nonelec capitalby sector and fuelpath

Initial noneleccapital by fuel 1



<Frac initial capitalin vintage 2> <Frac initial capital

in vintage 3>

<NonElec by fuelearly discarding 2>


<NonElec by fuelretiring>

<Initial nonelec capitalby sector and fuelpath>

<Fractional shutdowndue to temperature

feedbacks>

<Fractional shutdowndue to temperature

feedbacks>

<Initial capital>

<Indicatedcarrier share>

<Adjustment toenergy consuming

capital>

<Indicated fuel shareof serv for nonelec>

<Initial sectorshare>

<Replace earlydiscards>

<Fractional earlydiscard rate 2>



Capital nonelec fueldiscarding rate due to

higher costs 1

<Effect of nonelec fuelcost on capital 1

lifetime>

<Vintage 1lifetime>


higher costs 2<Effect of nonelec fuel

cost on capital 2lifetime> <Vintage 2

lifetime>


higher costs 3

<Effect of nonelec fuelcost on capital 3

lifetime>

<Vintage 3lifetime>

<Adjusted nonelecfuel vintage 3 lifetime><Adjusted nonelec

fuel vintage 2 lifetime><Adjusted nonelecfuel vintage 1 lifetime>


Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitsin vintage 1 is lost to early discarding.

Replace early discards

The fraction of capital that is lost due to factors other than aging that is to be replaced by new construction.

0-1 1 Dmnl


Table 3-9. Energy Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters


Initial capital[EndUseSector[

The initial capital based on the initial GDP and the capital output ratio.

Initial GDP*Initial capital output ratio

T$ 2011 PPP

Reference capital output ratio[EndUseSector]

Disaggregates the capital output ratio by end use sector.

Initial capital output ratio*Initial sector share[EndUseSector]$/($/Year)

Desired capital[EndUseSector[ Global GDP*Desired capital output ratio[EndUseSector] T$ 2011 PPP

Capital output ratio

Re-aggregates capital output ratio, accounting for effects of feedbacks.

SUM(Desired capital[EndUseSector!])/Global GDP

$/($/Year)

Initial sector share[Stationary] (1-Initial sector share[Mobile])*Initial fraction of stationary types[Stationary] Dmnl

Adjustment to energy consuming capital [EndUseSector]

The rate of capital for each end use to be installed to achieve the desired capital.

(Desired capital[EndUseSector]-Total energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector])/Time to adjust energy consuming capital

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]

The time that the capital remains in the first vintage; assumes that the lifetime is divided into 3 equal vintages.

Capital lifetime[EndUseSector]/3

Years

Vintage 2 lifetime[EndUseSector]

The time that the capital remains in the second vintage; assumes that the lifetime is divided into 3 equal vintages.

Capital lifetime[EndUseSector]/3

Years

Vintage 3 lifetime[EndUseSector] The time that the capital remains in the third vintage; assumes that the lifetime is divided into 3 equal vintages.

Years


Table 3-9. Energy Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsCapital lifetime[EndUseSector]/3

Effective rate of retirement[EndUseSector]

Effective rate of retirement of capital for each end use accounting for retrofit potential and the rate of retrofitting.

Retrofit Potential[EndUseSector]*(1/Capital lifetime[EndUseSector]+Rate of Retrofitting[EndUseSector])+(1-Retrofit Potential[EndUseSector])*(1/Capital lifetime[EndUseSector])

1/Year

Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector]

Effective lifetime of capital for each end use accounting for retrofit potential and the rate of retrofitting.

1/Effective rate of retirement[EndUseSector]

Year

Table 3-10. Electric Energy Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters


Installing elec capital[EndUseSector]

Electric capital for each end use that is added each year, accounting for desired capital, the existing capital, and the replacement of discarded and retired capital.

MAX(0, Adjustment to energy consuming capital[EndUseSector]+ Elec retiring[EndUseSector]+Replace early discards*(Elec early discarding 1[EndUseSector]+Elec early discarding 2[EndUseSector]+Elec early discarding 3[EndUseSector]))*Indicated carrier share[EndUseSector, Elec]

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]

The electric energy consuming capital in vintage 1 for each end use.

INTEG(Installing elec capital[EndUseSector]-Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Early Discarding 1[EndUseSector], Initial elec capital 1[EndUseSector])

T$ 2011 PPP






INTEG(Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Early Discarding 2[EndUseSector], Initial elec capital 2[EndUseSector])

T$ 2011 PPP



INTEG(Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Early discarding 3[EndUseSector]-Retiring[EndUseSector], Initial elec capital 3[EndUseSector])

T$ 2011 PPP

Initial elec capital 1[EndUseSector] INITIAL(Initial elec capital by sector[EndUseSector]*Frac initial capital in vintage 1[EndUseSector]) T$ 2011 PPP

Initial elec capital 2[EndUseSector] INITIAL(Initial elec capital by sector[EndUseSector]*Frac initial capital in vintage 2[EndUseSector] T$ 2011 PPP

Initial elec capital 3[EndUseSector] INITIAL(Initial elec capital by sector[EndUseSector]*Frac initial capital in vintage 3[EndUseSector]) T$ 2011 PPP

Initial elec capital by sector[EndUseSector]

INITIAL(Initial capital*Initial sector share[EndUseSector]*Indicated carrier share[EndUseSector,Elec]) T$ 2011 PPP

Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

Elec energy consuming capital moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]/ Adjusted elec vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

Elec energy consuming capital moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.


T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Elec retiring[EndUseSector] Elec energy consuming capital moving from vintage 3 to no longer T$ 2011 PPP/Year



Parameter Definition Unitsbeing used.


Elec early discarding 1[EndUseSector]

The amount of elec capital in vintage 1 lost due to factors other than aging.

Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]*MAX(Capital elec discarding rate due to higher costs 1[EndUseSector]+Fractional shutdown due to temperature feedbacks[EndUseSector],Fractional early discard rate 1)

T$ 2011 PPP/Year




T$ 2011 PPP/Year




T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Capital elec discarding rate due to higher costs 1[EndUseSector]

MIN(1, MAX(0, 1/Vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]*(1-Effect of elec energy cost on capital 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]))) 1/year








Total elec energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector]

The sum of elec energy consuming capital of each vintage by end use.

Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]+Elec energy consuming capital 2[EndUseSector]+Elec energy consuming capital 3[EndUseSector]

T$ 2011 PPP

Total elec energy consuming capital

The sum of electric energy consuming capital for all end uses.

SUM(Total Elec energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector!])

T$ 2011 PPP


Table 3-11. NonElectric Energy Consuming Capital by Fuel Calculated Parameters


Installing fuel capital EndUseSector, FuelPath

Capital for each end use that is added each year, accounting for desired capital, the existing capital, and the replacement of discarded and retired capital.

MAX(0, Adjustment to energy consuming capital [EndUseSector]+ NonElec by fuel retiring[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+Replace early discards*(NonElec by fuel early discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+NonElec by fuel early discarding 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+NonElec by fuel early discarding 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]))*Indicated carrier share[EndUseSector, NonElec]*Indicated fuel share of serv for nonelec[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The nonelec energy consuming capital by fuel in vintage 1 for each end use.

INTEG(Installing fuel capital[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-NonElec by fuel early discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath], Initial nonelec capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath])

T$ 2011 PPP



INTEG(NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-NonElec by fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-NonElec by fuel early discarding 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath], Initial nonelec capital by fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

T$ 2011 PPP



INTEG(Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Early discarding

T$ 2011 PPP



Parameter Definition Units3[EndUseSector]-Retiring[EndUseSector], Initial elec capital 3[EndUseSector])

Initial nonelec capital by fuel 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

INITIAL(Initial nonelec capital by sector and fuelpath[EndUseSector, FuelPath]*Frac initial capital in vintage 1[EndUseSector])

T$ 2011 PPP



T$ 2011 PPP



T$ 2011 PPP

Initial nonelec capital by sector and fuelpath [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

INITIAL(Initial capital*Initial sector share [EndUseSector]*Indicated carrier share[EndUseSector,NonElec]*Indicated fuel share of serv for nonelec[EndUseSector, FuelPath])

T$ 2011 PPP

NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy consuming capital by fuel moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]/ Adjusted nonelec fuel vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

NonElec by fuel aging 2 to 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy consuming capital by fuel moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.

NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]/ Adjusted nonelec fuel vintage 2 lifetime[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

T$ 2011 PPP/Year

NonElec by fuel retiring [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy consuming capital by fuel moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 3[EndUseSector,

T$ 2011 PPP/Year



Parameter Definition UnitsFuelPath]/Adjusted nonelec fuel vintage 3 lifetime[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

NonElec by fuel early discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The amount of nonelectric capital by fuel in vintage 1 lost due to factors other than aging.

NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]*MAX(Capital nonelec fuel discarding rate due to higher costs 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+Fractional shutdown due to temperature feedbacks[EndUseSector],Fractional early discard rate 1)

T$ 2011 PPP/Year




T$ 2011 PPP/Year




T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Capital nonelec fuel discarding rate due to higher costs 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

MIN(1, MAX(0, 1/Vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]*(1-Effect of nonelec fuel cost on capital 1 lifetime[EndUseSector, FuelPath])))

1/year

Capital nonelec fuel discarding rate due to higher costs 2

MIN(1, MAX(0, 1/Vintage 2 lifetime[EndUseSector]*(1-Effect of nonelec fuel cost on capital 2 lifetime[EndUseSector,

1/year



Parameter Definition Units[EndUseSector, FuelPath] FuelPath])))

Capital nonelec fuel discarding rate due to higher costs 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

MIN(1, MAX(0, 1/Vintage 3 lifetime[EndUseSector]*(1-Effect of nonelec fuel cost on capital 3 lifetime[EndUseSector, FuelPath])))

1/year

Total nonelec by fuel consuming capital for each end use [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The sum of nonelectric energy consuming capital by fuel of each vintage by end use.

NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

T$ 2011 PPP

Total nonelec consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector]

The sum of nonelectric energy consuming capital for all fuels.

SUM(Total nonelec by fuel consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath!])

T$ 2011 PPP

Total nonelec energy consuming capital

The sum of nonelectric energy consuming capital for all fuels and end uses.

SUM(Total nonelec by fuel consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector!,FuelPath!])

T$ 2011 PPP


3.3 Feedbacks to Capital and GDP

Several feedbacks to the demand sector exist, and are reflected in the model structure according to user-specified sensitivities to these feedbacks. Specifically, the three factors affecting capital that we considered to be most relevant include the rate of improvement of energy intensity of new capital, energy costs, and temperature change. These three factors affect capital through three primary feedbacks, i.e., to the rate of change of GDP per capita, the capital output ratio, and the fractional shutdown of existing capital. The GDP per capita rate affects the GDP, which in turn affects the desired amount of capital. GDP per capita growth could be hindered by required improvements in energy intensity of new capital at a rate greater than the default BAU, by energy costs greater than initial costs, and/or by temperature change. The capital output ratio could increase as the global GDP per capita approaches that of the Developed countries. It is also vulnerable to these three factors, as each could cause less of the GDP to come from capital-intensive sectors. Existing capital may also be discarded early according to the sensitivity of temperature change. Accordingly, there would be eight sensitivities of interest, all of which are controlled by the user.

1. GDP per capitaa) Sensitivity of GDP per capita to annual energy improvement rate;b) Sensitivity of GDP per capita to energy cost;c) Sensitivity of GDP per capita to temperature change

2. Capital output ratioa) Sensitivity of capital output ratio to GDP per capita;b) Sensitivity of capital output ratio to annual energy improvement rate;c) Sensitivity of capital output ratio to energy cost; and d) Sensitivity of capital output ratio to temperature change.

3. Early discarding of existing capitala) Sensitivity of capital discard rate to temperature change; andb) Effect of energy cost on capital discard of each vintage.

The demand-side feedbacks affect new and existing capital, but the degree and direction of the feedback is not necessarily intuitive.


Figure 3.11 Structure of Feedbacks to GDP, Capital Growth and Capital Output Ratio

Effect of energy demandon GDP per capitaEnergy intensity

improvement threshold

Sensitivity of GDP per capitato annual energyimprovement rate

Difference in rate fromthreshold rate of energy

demand

Ref sens of GDP per capitato annual improvement rate

Adj annualefficiency rate<Relative energy

intensity lower limit>

<Tech effect on energyintensity of new capital>

<One year>

Abs Temp Coeff

Effect of energy coston GDP per capita

Sensitivity of GDP percapita to energy cost

Overall adjustments tocapital growth

<Cost of energyper GJ>

Energy costthreshold

Difference in cost fromthreshold cost

Energy costcoeff

Effect of energy demandon capital output ratio

Sensitivity of capital outputratio to annual energy

improvement rate

Ref sens of capitaloutput ratio to energy

Effect of temperature oncapital output ratio

Sensitivity of capital outputratio to temperature change

Effect of energy cost oncapital output ratio

Sensitivity of capitaloutput ratio to energy

cost

Overall adjustments tocapital output ratio <Energy cost

coeff>

<Energy intensityimprovement rate>

<100 percent>

<Temperature changefrom preindustrial>

Effect of temperatureon GDP per capita

Sensitivity of GDP percapita growth to

temperature change

Effect of GDP per capitaon capital output ratioSensitivity of income on

capital output ratio

Overall adjustmentsto GDP rate

<Fraction of elec energyconsuming capital by end

use>

Adjustment to capitaloutput ratio for GDP per

capitaAdjustment to capital output

ratio for GDP per capitaLOOKUP

<GDP per capita relative toinitial Developed GDP per

capita>Sensitivity of capital

discard to temperaturechange

Fractional shutdown dueto temperature feedbacks

<Temperature changefrom preindustrial>

<Abs TempCoeff>


Figure 3.12 Structure of Feedback of Energy Cost on Early Discarding of Electric Energy Consuming Capital

Time to assess energycosts for retirement

Effect of elec energycost on capital 1 lifetime



Expected ratio of actual toexpected elec energy costs 1



<Vintage 1lifetime>

<Vintage 2lifetime>

<Vintage 3lifetime>

<Ratio of actual to expectedelec costs by end use of

vintage 2>


vintage 3>


vintage 1>

Adjusted vintage 1lifetime



Relative life min

Relative life max


Table 3-12 Energy-Consuming Capital Feedback Parameter Inputs


Sensitivity of GDP per capita to annual energy improvement rate

Sensitivity of GDP per capita h rate to the annual improvement rate of energy intensity of new capital above a threshold.

0-2.5 0 Dmnl

Ref sens of capital output ratio to annual energy improvement rate

0-10 0.1 T$ 2011 PPP/Year

Sensitivity of GDP per capita to energy cost

Sensitivity of GDP per capita rate to the total energy cost above a threshold. 0-2.5 0 T$ 2011 PPP

Abs Temp Coeff 0.1 1/DegreesCEnergy cost coeff 0.1 GJ/$Sensitivity of capital output ratio

to GDP per capita[EndUseSector]

Sensitivity of capital output rati o to GDP per capita for each end use. 0-2.5 0 Dmnl

Sensitivity of capital output ratio to annual energy improvement rate

0-2.5 0 T$ 2011 PPP

Sensitivity of capital output ratio to energy cost 0-2.5 0 T$ 2011 PPP

Sensitivity of capital output ratio to temperature change 0-2.5 0 T$ 2011 PPP

Sensitivity of capital discard to temperature change

Sensitivity of early discarding of capital per year to temperature change 0-2.5 0 1/year

Demand early retirement sensitivity

Adjusts the sensitivity of the demand chain to retire exisiting energy consuming capital early as the market price to use the energy required for it increases above the expected price as determined at the time of installation.

0-2 0.5 Dmnl

Figure 3.13 Structure of Feedback of Energy Cost on Early Discarding of Nonelectric Energy Consuming Capital by Fuel

Effect of nonelec fuelcost on capital 1 lifetime



Expected ratio of actual toexpected nonelec fuel costs

1

Expected ratio of actual toexpected nonelec fuel costs

2

Expected ratio of actual toexpected nonelec fuelcosts 3

<Vintage 1lifetime>

<Vintage 2lifetime>

<Vintage 3lifetime>

Adjusted nonelec fuelvintage 1 lifetime



<Ratio of actual to expectednonelec costs by end use of

vintage 2>


vintage 1>


vintage 3>

<Time to assess energycosts for retirement>

<Relative life max>

<Relative life min>


Table 3-12 Energy-Consuming Capital Feedback Parameter Inputs


Relative life max

Maximum factor by which the lifetime of the energy consuming capital is multiplied. Extends the life of the energy consuming capital when the energy costs are cheaper than expected.

1-2 1.2 Dmnl

Relative life min

Miminum factor by which the lifetime of the energy consuming capital is multiplied. Reduces the life of the energy consuming capital when the energy costs are more expensive than expected.

0.1-10 0.5 Dmnl

Time to assess energy costs for retirement

Time to assess energy costs to consumer to determine early discarding. 1-5 1 Years


Table 3-13. Energy-Consuming Capital Feedback Calculated Parameters


Energy intensity improvement threshold[EndUseSector]

Threshold annual improvement rate of energy intensity of new capital above which capital growth is hindered and capital output ratio increases.

INITIAL(Energy intensity improvement rate[EndUseSector])

1/year

Difference in rate from threshold rate of energy demand[EndUseSector]

Adj annual efficiency rate[EndUseSector]-Energy intensity improvement threshold[EndUseSector] 1/year

Adj annual efficiency rate[EndUseSector]

MIN(Energy intensity improvement rate[EndUseSector], MAX(0, Tech effect on energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector]-Relative energy intensity lower limit/"100 percent")/One year)

1/year

Effect of energy demand on capital growth[EndUseSector]

1-MAX(0, Sensitivity of GDP per capita to annual energy improvement rate/Ref sens of capital to annual improvement rate*Difference in rate from threshold rate of energy demand[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Effect of energy cost on capital growth

1-Difference in cost from threshold cost*Energy cost coeff*Sensitivity of capital growth to energy cost Dmnl

Adjustment to capital output ratio for GDP per capita

Increases capital output ratio as the global GDP per capita approaches the initial GDP per capita of Developed countries.

Adjustment to capital output ratio for GDP per capita LOOKUP(GDP per capita relative to initial Developed GDP per capita)

Dmnl

Adjustment to capital output ratio for GDP per capita LOOKUP [(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,1),(0.2,1),(0.4,1.05),(0.5,1.1),(0.6,1.1),(0.7,1),(1,1) Dmnl

Effect of GDP per capita on capital output ratio[EndUseSector]

Applies the adjustment to capital output ratio according to the end use specific sensitivity to GDP per capita relative to the initial GDP per capita of Developed countries.

Sensitivity of capital output ratio to GDP per

Dmnl


Table 3-13. Energy-Consuming Capital Feedback Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Unitscapita[EndUseSector]*Adjustment to capital output ratio for GDP per capita[EndUseSector]+(1-Sensitivity of capital output ratio to GDP per capita[EndUseSector])

Effect of energy demand on capital output ratio[EndUseSector]

1+MAX(0, Sensitivity of capital output ratio to annual energy improvement rate/Ref sens of capital output ratio to energy*Difference in rate from threshold rate of energy demand[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Effect of energy cost on capital output ratio

1+MAX(0,Difference in cost from threshold cost *Energy cost coeff *Sensitivity of capital output ratio to energy cost) Dmnl

Effect of temperature on capital output ratio

1+Abs Temp Coeff*Temp change from preindust[Deterministic]*Sensitivity of capital output ratio to temperature change

Dmnl

Overall adjustments to capital growth[EndUseSector]

Effect of energy demand on capital growth[EndUseSector]*Effect of energy cost on capital growth Dmnl

Overall adjustments to capital output ratio[EndUseSector]

Overall effect on capital output ratio from GDP per capita, energy cost, energy improvement, and temperature change.

Effect of energy demand on capital output ratio[EndUseSector]*Effect of temperature on capital output ratio*Effect of energy cost on capital output ratio*Effect of GDP per capita on capital output ratio[EndUseSector]

Dmnl

Fractional shutdown due to temperature feedbacks

Forces early shutdownof energy consuming capita due to feedbacks of temperature change.

MAX(0, Abs Temp Coeff*(Temp change from preindust[Deterministic]- INIT(Temp change from preindust[Deterministic]))*Sensitivity of capital discard to temperature change)

1/year


Table 3-14. Electric Energy-Consuming Capital Feedback Calculated Parameters


Effect of elec energy cost on capital 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]

Relative life min + (1 - Relative life min) * ((1 - Relative life min) / (Relative life max - Relative life min)) ^ (Expected ratio of actual to expected elec energy costs 1[EndUseSector] - 1)

Dmnl

Effect of elec energy cost on capital 2 lifetime [EndUseSector]


Dmnl

Effect of elec energy cost on capital 3 lifetime [EndUseSector]


Dmnl

Expected ratio of actual to expected elec energy costs 1[EndUseSector]

The ratio of costs is explained in Section .

SMOOTH(Ratio of actual to expected elec costs by end use of vintage 1[EndUseSector], Time to assess energy costs for retirement)

Dmnl




Dmnl




Dmnl

Adjusted elec vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]

The effective lifetime is extende if the Effect of elec energy cost on capital 1 lifetime>1; however, if it is <1, the effective lifetime is not reduced but rather the early discarding captures that.

Vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]*MAX(1, Effect of elec energy cost on capital 1 lifetime[EndUseSector])

Years


Table 3-14. Electric Energy-Consuming Capital Feedback Calculated Parameters





Years




Years


Table 3-15. Nonelectric Energy-Consuming Capital by Fuel Feedback Calculated Parameters


Effect of nonelec fuel cost on capital 1 lifetime [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Relative life min + (1 - Relative life min ) * ((1 - Relative life min) / (Relative life max - Relative life min)) ^ (Expected ratio of actual to expected nonelec fuel costs 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath] - 1)

Dmnl



Dmnl



Dmnl

Expected ratio of actual to expected nonelec fuelcosts 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath


SMOOTH(SMOOTH(Ratio of actual to expected nonelec costs by end use of vintage 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath], Time to assess energy costs for retirement)

Dmnl




Dmnl




Dmnl

Adjusted nonelec fuel vintage 1 lifetime [EndUseSector, FuelPath

The effective lifetime is extende if the Effect of nonelec fuel cost on capital 1 lifetime>1; however, if it is <1, the effective lifetime is not reduced but rather the early discarding captures that.

Years


Table 3-15. Nonelectric Energy-Consuming Capital by Fuel Feedback Calculated Parameters


Vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]*MAX(1, Effect of nonelec fuel cost on capital 1 lifetime[EndUseSector,FuelPath])




Years




Years


3.4 Energy Intensity of New Capital

In the Demand sector, energy requirements are embodied separately for each fuel and for electricity. Energy intensity of each new unit of capital drives the embodied requirements. Technological improvements and price of energy affect the energy intensity of new capital. The technological effect defaults to the historically observed improvements, assuming those persist into the future. However, the user may change those rates of improvement. Price effects are determined according to the long term demand elasticities for electricity and for each fuel and the relative costs to the reference levels. The indicated price effects are delayed over time.


Figure 3.14 Structure of Energy Demand

Tech effect onenergy intensity of

new capitalDecreasing energyrequirements

Historic rate ofdecrease of

energy intensity

R&D delay time

Energy intensityimprovement rate

Start year for intensityimprovement stationary

Relative energyintensity lower limit

Energy intensity ofnew electric capital

Reference elecenergy intensity

BAU rate ofdecrease of energy

intensity

<100 percent>

Start year for phase 2

Energy intensityimprovement rate

phase 1

<Time> Energy intensityimprovement rate

phase 2

<100 percent>

Annual improvement toenergy efficiency of new

capital


capital phase 2


capital mobile


capital stationary

Annual improvement toenergy efficiency of newcapital phase 2 mobile


capital phase 2 stationary

Start year for intensityimprovement mobile

Start year forintensity

improvement

Energy intensity ofnew nonelec capital

by fuel

<Total elec energyrequirements by end

use>


each end use>

<One year>

<Price effect onnonelec fuel intensity>

<Price effect on elecenergy intensity>

Reference nonelecfuel intensity

<100 percent>


<Total nonelec by fuelconsuming capital for

each end use><Nonelec fuel

requirements by enduse>


Table 3-16 Energy Intensity of Capital Parameter Inputs


Annual rate of decrease of energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector]

The projected decrease in energy intensity of new energy-demanding capital by end use, occurring from technological change and sectoral shifts. Increasing this value increases global energy efficiency. A 7% per year drop of new capital gives approximately 3% per year drop to average energy intensity from 2010-2050.

-1-7 Percent/year

[Stationary] Applies to residential and commercial and to industry end uses. 1.2[Mobile] 0.5

Annual rate of decrease of energy intensity of new capital phase 2[EndUseSector]

The phase 2 (after a transition year) projected decrease in energy intensity of new energy-demanding capital by end use, occurring from technological change and sectoral shifts. Increasing this value increases global energy efficiency. A 7% per year drop of new capital gives approximately 3% per year drop to average energy intensity from 2010-2050.

-1-7 Percent/year

[Stationary] Applies to residential and commercial and to industry end uses. 1.2[Mobile] 0.5

Relative energy intensity lower limit

Sets the floor for how low the intensity can fall as a fraction of the original intensity. 0-100 20 Percent

Start year for intensity improvement [EndUseSector]

Year to start improving the energy intensity of new capital by end use.

2017-2040 2017 Year

"R&D delay time" Time from the start year for intensity improvement to achieve the full improved energy intensity of new capital. 1-50 1 Year

Historic rate of decrease of energy intensity [EndUseSector]

Historic rate of change of energy intensity leading up to the initial time of 1990. 0-10 1.2, 1.2, 0.5 Percent/year

Figure 3.15 Structure of Price Effects on Energy Intensity

Price effect onnonelec fuel intensity

Price effect onnonelec fuel intensity

indicatedReference long termdemand elasticity of

fuels

<Market price ofdelivered fuels for

nonelec consumption>

Price effect on elecenergy intensity

indicated

Reference long termdemand elasticity of

electricity

<End use cost>

Price effect on elecenergy intensity

Time for priceeffect


Table 3-16 Energy Intensity of Capital Parameter Inputs


BAU rate of decrease of energy intensity [EndUseSector]

Rate of change of technological improvements in energy intensity from 1990 until the start year for intensity improvement.

0-10 1.2, 1.2, 0.5 Percent/year

Reference long term demand elasticity of electricity

The sensitivity of long term demand to changes in cost of the cost of electricity. Set to be absolute value so that greater values increase demand more with decreasing energy costs.

0-2 1 Dmnl

Reference long term demand elasticity of fuels

The sensitivity of long term demand of each fuel to changes in cost of the cost of fuels. Set to be absolute value so that greater values increase demand more with decreasing energy costs.

0-2 0.5 Dmnl

Time for price effect 1-10 10 Year


Table 3-17. Energy Intensity of Capital Calculated Parameters


Tech effect on energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector]

The multiplying factor to reduce energy intensity from its reference value as technology improves by end use.

INTEG(-Decreasing energy requirements[EndUseSector], 1)

Dmnl

Energy intensity improvement rate phase 1[EndUseSector]

Rate of change in energy intensity of new capital by end use, accounting for historical and projected rates.

SMOOTH3(IF THEN ELSE(Time>=Start year for intensity improvement[EndUseSector], Annual improvement to energy efficiency of new capital[EndUseSector],BAU rate of decrease of energy intensity[EndUseSector]), "R&D delay time")/"100 percent"

1/year

Energy intensity improvement rate phase 2[EndUseSector]

Rate of change in energy intensity of new capital by end use in phase 2.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for phase 2, Energy intensity improvement rate phase 1[EndUseSector], SMOOTH3(IF THEN ELSE(Time>=Start year for phase 2, Annual improvement to energy efficiency of new capital phase 2[EndUseSector],Annual improvement to energy efficiency of new capital[EndUseSector]),"R&D delay time")/"100 percent")

Energy intensity improvement rate[EndUseSector]

Rate of change in energy intensity of new capital by end use, accounting for historical and projected rate in both phases.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<Start year for phase 2, Energy intensity improvement rate phase 1[EndUseSector], Energy intensity improvement rate phase 2[EndUseSector])

1/year

Decreasing energy requirements[EndUseSector]

Change with time of the multiplying factor to reduce energy intensity from its reference value by end use.

1/year



Parameter Definition UnitsMIN(Energy intensity improvement rate[EndUseSector]*Tech

effect on energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector], MAX(0, (Tech effect on energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector]-Relative energy intensity lower limit/"100 percent")/One year))

Energy intensity of new electric capital[EndUseSector]

The energy intensity, i.e., energy per unit of capital, by end use sector (stationary and mobile) of new electric energy-consuming capital as a function of the its reference intensity and the multiplying factors of the tech effect and the price effect.

Reference elec energy intensity[EndUseSector]*Tech effect on energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector]*Price effect on elec energy intensity[EndUseSector, Elec]

(EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP

Energy intensity of new nonelec capital by fuel [EndUseSector,FuelPath]

The energy intensity, i.e., energy per unit of capital, by end use sector and by fuel type of new nonelectric fuel-consuming capital as a function of its reference intensity and the multiplying factors of the tech effect and the price effect for each fuel.

Reference nonelec fuel intensity[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Tech effect on energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector]*Price effect on nonelec fuel intensity[FuelPath]


Reference elec energy intensity[EndUseSector]

The initial electric energy intensity by end use.

INITIAL(Total elec energy requirements by end use[EndUseSector]/Total elec energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector]*EXP(-Historic rate of decrease of energy intensity[EndUseSector]/"100 percent"* Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector])))





Reference nonelec fuel intensity [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The initial nonelectric fuel intensity by end use.

INITIAL(ZIDZ(Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Total nonelec by fuel consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath])*EXP(-Historic rate of decrease of energy intensity[EndUseSector]/"100 percent"* Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector]))



3.5 Long Term Energy Requirements

The long term energy requirements are a function of the energy intensity of new energy, capital growth rates, and discarding as determined in the previous sections. Retrofititng for each end also occurs, with the retrofits at the intensity of new energy.


Figure 3.16 Structure of Electric Long Term Energy Requirements of Capital - Original

Elec energyrequirements ofcapital original 1Increasing elec

energy req original

<Energy intensity ofnew electric capital>

Elec energyrequirements ofcapital original 3

Elec energyrequirements ofcapital original 2 Orig elec energy

aging 2 to 3Orig elec energy

aging 1 to 2Orig elec energy

retiring

Orig elec energydiscarding 1

Average original elecenergy intensity 1





Initial elec energyrequirements 1

<Frac initial energyreq in vintage 1>





Initial energyrequirements <Initial energy

requirements>

<Installing eleccapital>

<Elec energyconsuming capital 1>

<Elec energyconsuming capital 2> <Elec energy

consuming capital 3>

<Elec aging 1 to2>

<Elec aging 2 to3> <Elec retiring>




<Initial mobile eleccons>

<Initial mobilenonelec cons>

<Initial stationaryelec cons>

<Initial stationarynonelec cons>

<Initial fraction ofstationary types>


Figure 3.17 Structure of Electric Long Term Energy Requirements of Capital (with Retrofit Potential)

Main

Elec energyrequirements of

capital 1Increasing elecenergy req

Elec energy aging1 to 2

Retrofitting ofelec 1

Rate of retrofitting


capital 2


capital 3Elec energy aging2 to 3

Elec energy retiring



Elec energydiscarding 1 Elec energy

discarding 2

Elec energydiscarding 3

Average elec energyintensity 1

Average elec energyintensity 2 Average elec energy

intensity 3

Elec energy intensityfrom retrofits 2 Elec energy intensity

from retrofits 3

Elec energyrequirements from

retrofits 2


retrofits 3

Elec energy intensityfrom retrofits 1


retrofits 1

<Average original elecenergy intensity 1>




<Retrofitpotential>



<Retrofitpotential>

<Rate ofretrofitting>

Retrofit potential

Retrofit potentialmobile

Retrofit potentialstationary

<Increasing elecenergy req original>

<Initial elec energyrequirements 1>



Rate of stationaryretrofitting Rate of mobile

retrofitting

Effective capitallifetime

Effective rate ofretirement

Historical rate ofretrofitting

<Time>


<Capital lifetime>




<Elec energyconsuming capital 3><Elec energy


<Elec aging 1 to2>


<Elec aging 2 to3>



<Elec retiring>

<y2017>

Figure 3.18 Structure of Nonelectric Long Term Energy Requirements of Capital by Fuel- Original

<Initial nonelec energyrequirements>

Nonelec energyrequirements ofcapital by fuel

original 1Increasing nonelecreq by fuel original


original 3


original 2 Orig nonelec fuelaging 2 to 3

Orig nonelec fuelaging 1 to 2

Orig nonelec fuelretiring

Orig nonelec fueldiscarding 1

Average originalnonelec fuel intensity 1

Average originalnonelec fuel intensity 2

Average originalnonelec fuel intensity 3Orig nonelec fuel

discarding 2 Orig nonelec fueldiscarding 3

Initial nonelec fuelrequirements 1






<Energy intensity of newnonelec capital by fuel>

<Initial nonelec energyrequirements>

<NonElec energyconsuming capital by fuel

1>


2> <NonElec energyconsuming capital by fuel

3>

<NonElec by fuelaging 1 to 2>

<NonElec by fuelaging 2 to 3> <NonElec by fuel

retiring>




<Installing fuelcapital>


Figure 3.19 Structure of Nonelectric Long Term Energy Requirements of Capital by Fuel (with Retrofit Potential)

Nonelec energyrequirements ofcapital by fuel 1Increasing Nonelec

fuel req

Nonelec energyrequirements ofcapital by fuel 3

Nonelec energyrequirements ofcapital by fuel 2 Nonelec fuel aging

2 to 3Nonelec fuel aging

1 to 2Nonelec fuel

retiring

Nonelec fueldiscarding 1

Average nonelec fuelintensity 1

Average nonelec fuelintensity 2 Average nonelec fuel

intensity 3Nonelec fueldiscarding 2 Nonelec fuel

discarding 3<Increasing nonelecreq by fuel original>

<Initial nonelec fuelrequirements 1> <Initial nonelec fuel

requirements 2>

<Initial nonelec fuelrequirements 3>

Retrofitting ofnonelec fuel 1



Nonelec fuel intensityfrom retrofits 2


Nonelec fuelrequirements from

retrofits 2


retrofits 3



retrofits 1

<Average originalnonelec fuel intensity 1>


<Average originalnonelec fuel intensity 2>

<Energy intensity of newnonelec capital by fuel> <Average original

nonelec fuel intensity 3>


<Rate ofretrofitting>

<Rate ofretrofitting><Rate of

retrofitting>

<Retrofitpotential>

<Retrofitpotential>

<Retrofitpotential>


1>


1><NonElec by fuel

early discarding 1>

<NonElec by fuelearly discarding 2> <NonElec by fuel

early discarding 3>


2>


3>


<NonElec by fuelaging 2 to 3><NonElec by fuel

aging 1 to 2>


2>


3>


Figure 3.20 Measures of Electric Long Term Energy Requirements of Capital

<Elec energyrequirements of capital

1>


2>


3>

Reference elec demand toproducers at customary use

<T&D losses>

Policy adjustment toelec reference demand

Reference elec demand toproducers without policy

<Reference demandadjustment factor>

<Reference demandpolicy start time>

<Reference demandpolicy stop time>

<Time>

Years to adjust topolicy

Total elec energyrequirements by end use

Average original elecenergy intensity of capital

Total original elec energyrequirements by end use


original 1>


original 2><Elec energy

requirements of capitaloriginal 3>

Ratio of original toretrofitted elec energy

<Total elec energyconsuming capital for each

end use>

Total elecdiscarding

<Elec energydiscarding 1>



Total elecretrofitting

<Retrofitting ofelec 1>



Reference elec energyintensity of capital

<Total elec energyconsuming capital for each

end use>

Reference total elec demandto producers at customary

useEnd use share of

elec


Figure 3.21 Measures of Nonelectric Long Term Energy Requirements of Capital

Average original nonelecfuel intensity of capital

Total original nonelec fuelrequirements by end use

<Nonelec energyrequirements of capital by

fuel original 1>


fuel original 2>


fuel original 3>

Total nonelec fueldiscarding

Total nonelec fuelretrofitting

<Nonelec fueldiscarding 1>



<Retrofitting ofnonelec fuel 1>



Nonelec fuel requirementsby end use

<Nonelec energyrequirements of capital

by fuel 1> <Nonelec energyrequirements of capital

by fuel 2>


by fuel 3>

Total Nonelec fuelrequirements by end use End use shares of

nonelec

Nonelec fuelrequirements adjusted

Reference nonelecenergy demand adjusted

Policy adjustment tononelec reference demand

<Reference demandadjustment factor>

<Reference demandpolicy start time>

<Reference demandpolicy stop time>

<Time>

<Years to adjust topolicy>

Nonelec fuelrequirements by end

use adjusted

Reference fuelintensity of capital

<Total nonelec by fuelconsuming capital for each

end use>

Figure 3.22 Measures of Long Term Energy Requirements and Intensity of Capital

Embodied intensity of elecenergy demand to producers of

capital by end use

Average intensity of elecenergy demand to

producers 1

Elec energy demand toproducers of capital 1


Total elec energyconsuming capital for each

end use




Total elec energyconsuming capital

Fraction of elec energyconsuming capital by end

use


1>

Total energyrequirements by end use

and carrierTotal energyrequirements by end

use

Total energyrequirements by

carrier

<Total elec energyrequirements by end use>

<Total Nonelec fuelrequirements by end use>

Policy adjustment to fuelreference demand

<Reference fuel demandadjustment factor>

<Reference fueldemand policy start

time>

<Reference fueldemand policy stop

time><Time>

<Years to adjust topolicy>

<Reference elec demand toproducers without policy>

Embodied intensity of nonelecfuel demand to producers of

capital by end use

Total nonelec energyconsuming capital

Fraction of nonelec by fuelconsuming capital by end use

Total nonelec by fuelconsuming capital for each

end use


1>


2>


3>


use>

Average intensity ofnonelec fuel demand to

producers 1

NonElec fuel demand toproducers of capital 1


fuel 1>

<T&D losses>


1>


producers 2



producers 2



producers 3



producers 3


<T&D losses>


2><Elec energy



fuel 2> <NonElec energyconsuming capital by fuel

2>


3><Elec energy



fuel 3>


3>

Total energy consumingcapital for each end use

Total nonelec consumingcapital for each end use

<T&D losses>


Table 3-18. Electric Long Term Energy Requirements (Original) Calculated Parameters


Elec energy requirements of capital original 1[EndUseSector]

For each end use, the electric energy required of capital in vintage 1 as originally installed (prior to retrofits, if any).

INTEG(Increasing elec energy req original[EndUseSector]-Orig elec energy aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Orig elec energy discarding 1[EndUseSector], Initial elec energy requirements 1[EndUseSector])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Orig elec energy aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Orig elec energy aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Orig elec energy discarding 2[EndUseSector], Initial elec energy requirements 2[EndUseSector])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Orig elec energy aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Orig ER discarding 3[EndUseSector]-Orig elec energy retiring[EndUseSector], Initial elec energy requirements 3[EndUseSector])

EJ/Year

Initial elec energy requirements 1[EndUseSector]

Initial energy requirements[EndUseSector,Elec]*Frac initial energy req in vintage 1[EndUseSector] EJ/Year

Initial elec energy requirements 2[EndUseSector


Initial elec energy requirements 3[EndUseSector]


Increasing elec energy req original[EndUseSector]

Energy requirements of capital that is installed for each end use and delivered by electricity.

(EJ/Year)/Year



Parameter Definition UnitsEnergy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,Elec]*Installing elec capital[EndUseSector]

Orig elec energy aging 1 to 2 [EndUseSector]

Electric energy requirements of capital as originally installed moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Average original elec energy intensity 1[EndUseSector]*Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig elec energy aging 2 to 3 [EndUseSector]

Electric energy requirements of capital as originally installed moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.

Average original elec energy intensity 2[EndUseSector]*Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig elec energy retiring[EndUseSector]

Electric energy requirements of capital as originally installed moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

Average original energy intensity 3[EndUseSector,Carrier]*Elec retiring[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig elec energy discarding 1[EndUseSector]

The decrease in electric energy requirements for vintage 1 due to the amount of capital as originally installed in this vintage lost due to early discarding.

Average original elec energy intensity 1[EndUseSector]*Early discarding 1[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig elec energy discarding 2[EndUseSector]

The decrease in electric energy requirements for vintage 2 due to the amount of capital as originally installed in this vintage lost due to early discarding.


(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig elec energy discarding The decrease in electric energy requirements for vintage 3 due to (EJ/Year)/Year




3[EndUseSector]

the amount of capital as originally installed in this vintage lost due to early discarding.


Average original elec energy intensity 1[EndUseSector]

Average of annual electric nergy required per dollar of vintage 1 capital as originally installed (prior to retrofits, if any).

Elec energy requirements of capital original 1[EndUseSector]/Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]










Total original elec energy requirements by end use [EndUseSector]

Sum of electric energy requirements of capital in each vintage as originally installed.

Elec energy requirements of capital original 1[EndUseSector]+Elec energy requirements of capital original 2[EndUseSector]+Elec energy requirements of capital original 3[EndUseSector]

EJ/Year

Average original elec energy intensity of capital[EndUseSector]

Average annual electric energy required per dollar of total capital as originally installed.

Total original elec energy requirements by end




Parameter Definition Unitsuse[EndUseSector]/Total Elec energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector]


Table 3-19. Nonelectric Long Term Energy Requirements (Original) by Fuel Calculated Parameters


Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel original 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

For each end use and by each fuel, the nonelectric energy required of capital in vintage 1 as originally installed (prior to retrofits, if any).

INTEG(Increasing nonelec req by fuel original[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Orig nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Orig nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial nonelec fuel requirements 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Orig Nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Orig nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-Orig nonelec fuel discarding 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial nonelec fuel requirements 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Orig nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Orig nonelec fuel discarding 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Orig nonelec fuel retiring[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial nonelec fuel requirements 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

EJ/Year

Initial nonelec fuel requirements 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Initial nonelec energy requirements[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Frac initial energy req in vintage 1[EndUseSector] EJ/Year

Initial nonelec fuel requirements 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Initial nonelec energy requirements[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Frac initial energy req in vintage 2[EndUseSector] EJ/Year

Initial nonelec fuel requirements Initial nonelec energy requirements[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Frac EJ/Year



Parameter Definition Units3[EndUseSector, FuelPath] initial energy req in vintage 3[EndUseSector]

Increasing nonelec req by fuel original [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelec energy requirements of capital that is installed for each end use and delivered by each fuel.

Nonelec Fuel intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Installing elec capital[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements of capital by fuel as originally installed moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Average original nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements of capital by fuel as originally installed moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.

Average original nonelec fuel intensity 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*NonElec by fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig nonelec fuel retiring[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements of capital by fuel as originally installed moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

Average original nonelec fuel intensity 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Retiring[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Orig nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The decrease in nonelec energy requirements by fuel for vintage 1 due to the amount of capital as originally installed in this vintage lost due to early retirement.

Average original nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]* NonElec by fuel early discarding 1[EndUseSector,

(EJ/Year)/Year



Parameter Definition UnitsFuelPath]



Average original nonelec fuel intensity 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]* NonElec by fuel early discarding 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year



Average original nonelec fuel intensity 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]* NonElec by fuel early discarding 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Average original nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Average of annual nonelectric energy by fuel required per dollar of vintage 1 capital as originally installed (prior to retrofits, if any).

ZIDZ(Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath], NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath])


Average original nonelec fuel intensity 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Average of annual nonelectric energy by fuel required per dollar of vintage 2 capital as originally installed (prior to retrofits, if any).



Average original nonelec fuel Average of annual nonelectric energy by fuel required per dollar of (EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP




intensity 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

vintage 3 capital as originally installed (prior to retrofits, if any).


Total original nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Sum of nonelectric energy requirements by fuel of capital in each vintage as originally installed.

Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel original 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel original 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel original 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

EJ/Year

Average original nonelec fuel intensity of capital[EndUseSector, Rnonelec

Average annual nonelectric energy by fuel required per dollar of total capital as originally installed.

Total original nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath]/Total energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector]



Table 3-20 . Retrofits and Noncost Policy Adjustment Inputs for Long Term Energy Requirements


Retrofit potential[EndUseSector]Fraction of capital that can be retrofitted with new energy intensity

Dmnl

Retrofit potential stationary 0-1 0.7Retrofit potential mobile 0-1 0.05

Historical rate of retrofitting[EndUseSector]

Historical rate until 2017 it takes to retrofit capital to make it more energy efficient in each sector.

1/year

[Stationary] 0.05[Mobile] 0.1

Rate of retrofitting[EndUseSector]Rate it takes to retrofit capital to make it more energy efficient in each sector.

1/year

Rate of Stationary Retrofitting 0-1 0.05Rate of Mobile Retrofitting 0-1 0.1

Reference demand adjustment factor[Carrier, EndUseSector]

Reflects noncost policy to reduce reference demand by multiplicative fraction.

0-1 0 Dmnl

Reference demand policy start time[Carrier, EndUseSector]

Year to start the noncost policy to adjust the reference demand. 2017-2100 2017 Year

Reference demand policy stop time[Carrier, EndUseSector]

Year to stop the noncost policy to adjust the reference demand. 2017-2100 2050 Year

Years to adjust to policy Time to ramp up to full noncost adjustment. 1-20 10 Years


Table 3-21. Retrofitting and Noncost Policy Adjustments Calculated Parameters


Rate of retrofitting[EndUseSector] Rate it takes to retrofit capital to make it more energy efficient in each sector. 1/year

Rate of retrofitting[Stationary] IF THEN ELSE(Time<y2017, Historical rate of retrofitting[Stationary], Rate of stationary retrofitting)

Rate of retrofitting[Mobile] IF THEN ELSE(Time<y2017, Historical rate of retrofitting[Mobile], Rate of mobile retrofitting)


Table 3-22. Electric Long Term Energy Requirements with Retrofits Calculated Parameters


Elec energy requirements of capital 1 [EndUseSector]

For each end use, the electric energy required of capital in vintage 1, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Increasing elec energy req[EndUseSector]-Elec energy aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Elec energy discarding 1[EndUseSector]-Retrofitting of elec 1[EndUseSector], Initial elec energy requirements 1[EndUseSector])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Increasing elec energy req[EndUseSector]-Elec energy aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Elec energy discarding 2[EndUseSector]-Retrofitting of elec 2[EndUseSector], Initial elec energy requirements 2[EndUseSector])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Elec energy aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Elec energy discarding 3[EndUseSector]-Elec energy retiring[EndUseSector]-Retrofitting of elec 3[EndUseSector], Initial elec energy requirements 3[EndUseSector])

EJ/Year

Increasing elec energy req[EndUseSector]

Energy requirements of capital that is installed for each end use and delivered by electricity, same as for original electric energy requirements without retrofits because both are based on energy intensity of new capital.

Increasing energy req original[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Elec energy aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

Electric energy requirements of capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

(EJ/Year)/Year




Average elec energy intensity 1[EndUseSector]*Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

Elec energy aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

Electric energy requirements of capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Average elec energy intensity 2[EndUseSector]*Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Elec energy retiring[EndUseSector]

Electric energy requirements of capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

Average elec energy intensity 3[EndUseSector]*Retiring[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Elec energy discarding 1[EndUseSector]

The decrease in electric energy requirements for vintage 1 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.

Average elec energy intensity 1[EndUseSector]*Early discarding 1[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year



Average elec energy intensity 2[EndUseSector]*Early discarding 2[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year



Average elec energy intensity 3[EndUseSector]*Early discarding

(EJ/Year)/Year



Parameter Definition Units3[EndUseSector]

Average energy intensity 1[EndUseSector, Carrier]

Average of annual energy required per dollar of vintage 1 capital, including any retrofits.

Energy requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector, Carrier]/Energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]










Elec energy requirements from retrofits 1[EndUseSector]

Annual electric energy requirements of retrofitted capital in vintage 1.

Energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]*Elec energy intensity from retrofits 1[EndUseSector]

EJ/Year

Energy requirements from retrofits 2[EndUseSector,Carrier]

Annual energy requirements of retrofitted capital in vintage 2.


EJ/Year

Energy requirements from retrofits 3[EndUseSector,Carrier]

Annual energy requirements of retrofitted capital in vintage 3.


EJ/Year

Elec energy intensity from retrofits Annual electric energy requirements per dollar of retrofitted capital (EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP




1[EndUseSector]

in vintage 1, based on fraction that is not retrofitted having intensity of capital as originally installed and fraction that is retrofitted having intensity of new capital.

Retrofit potential[EndUseSector]*Energy intensity of new capital[EndUseSector, Elec]+ (1-Retrofit potential[EndUseSector])*Average original elec energy intensity 1[EndUseSector]

Elec energy intensity from retrofits 2[EndUseSector]

Annual electric energy requirements per dollar of retrofitted capital in vintage 2, based on fraction that is not retrofitted having intensity of capital as originally installed and fraction that is retrofitted having intensity of new capital.



Elec energy intensity from retrofits 3[EndUseSector]

Annual electric energy requirements per dollar of retrofitted capital in vintage 3, based on fraction that is not retrofitted having intensity of capital as originally installed and fraction that is retrofitted having intensity of new capital.



Retrofitting of elec 1[EndUseSector] The decrease in energy requirements of vintage 1 from the originally installed capital due to retrofitting.

MAX(0, (Elec energy requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector]-

(EJ/Year)/Year



Parameter Definition UnitsElec energy requirements from retrofits 1[EndUseSector])*Rate of retrofitting[EndUseSector])

Retrofitting of elec 2[EndUseSector]

The decrease in electric energy requirements of vintage 2 from the originally installed capital due to retrofitting.

MAX(0,(Elec energy requirements of capital 2[EndUseSector]-Elec energy requirements from retrofits 2[EndUseSector])*Rate of retrofitting[EndUseSector])

(EJ/Year)/Year

Retrofitting of elec 3[EndUseSector]

The decrease in electric energy requirements of vintage 3 from the originally installed capital due to retrofitting.

MAX(0, (Elec energy requirements of capital 3[EndUseSector]-Elec energy requirements from retrofits 3[EndUseSector])*Rate of retrofitting[EndUseSector])

(EJ/Year)/Year

Total elec retrofitting[EndUseSector]

Sum of electric energy retrofitting of each vintage.

Retrofitting of elec 1[EndUseSector]+Retrofitting of elec 2[EndUseSector]+Retrofitting of elec 3[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Total elec discarding[EndUseSector]

Sum of electric energy discarding of each vintage.

Elec energy discarding 1[EndUseSector]+Elec energy discarding 2[EndUseSector]+Elec energy discarding 3[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Total elec energy requirements by end use[EndUseSector]

Electric long term energy requirements of capital by end use, calculated as the sum of those requirements in each vintage of capital.

Elec energy requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector]+Elec energy requirements of capital 2[EndUseSector]+Elec energy requirements of capital 3[EndUseSector]

EJ/Year

Reference elec demand to producers Electric long term energy requirements of capital accounting for EJ/year




without policyT&D losses.

Total elec energy requirements by end use[EndUseSector]/(1-"T&D losses"[Elec])

Policy adjustment to elec reference demand[EndUseSector]

Noncost policy to adjust electric long term energy demand.

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Reference demand policy stop time[Elec,EndUseSector], 1, 1-ramp((1-Reference demand adjustment factor[Elec,EndUseSector])/Years to adjust to policy, Reference demand policy start time[Elec,EndUseSector], Reference demand policy start time[Elec,EndUseSector]+Years to adjust to policy))

Dmnl

Reference elec demand to producers at customary use[EndUseSector]

Electric long term energy requirements of capital accounting for T&D losses and noncost policy adjustments.

Reference elec demand to producers without policy[EndUseSector]*Policy adjustment to elec reference demand[EndUseSector]

EJ/year


Table 3-23. Nonelectric Long Term Energy Requirements by Fuel with Retrofits Calculated Parameters


Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

For each end use and by each fuel, the energy required of capital in vintage 1 as originally installed including any retrofits.

INTEG(Increasing Nonelec fuel req[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial nonelec fuel requirements 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel discarding 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath] , Initial nonelec fuel requirements 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

EJ/Year



INTEG(Nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel discarding 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel retiring[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial nonelec fuel requirements 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

EJ/Year

Increasing Nonelec fuel req[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements of capital that is installed for each end use and delivered by each fuel, same as for original nonelectric energy requirements without retrofits by fuel because both are based on energy intensity of new capital.

Increasing nonelec req by fuel original[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year




Nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements by fuel of capital as originally installed moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Average nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements by fuel of capital as originally installed moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.

Average nonelec fuel intensity 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*NonElec by fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Nonelec fuel retiring[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements by fuel of capital as originally installed moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

Average nonelec fuel intensity 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Retiring[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The decrease in nonelectric energy requirements by fuel for vintage 1 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.

Average nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]*Early discarding 1[EndUseSector]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Nonelec fuel discarding 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The decrease in nonelectric energy requirements by fuel for vintage 2 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.


(EJ/Year)/Year

Nonelec fuel discarding The decrease in nonelectric energy requirements by fuel for (EJ/Year)/Year




3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

vintage 3 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.


Average nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Average of annual nonelectric energy by fuel required per dollar of vintage 1 capital, including any retrofits.











Nonelec fuel requirements from retrofits 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Annual nonelectric energy by fuel requirements of retrofitted capital in vintage 1.

Energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]*Nonelec fuel intensity from retrofits 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

EJ/Year




EJ/Year







EJ/Year

Nonelec fuel intensity from retrofits 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Annual nonelectric energy by fuel requirements per dollar of retrofitted capital in vintage 1, based on fraction that is not retrofitted having intensity of capital as originally installed and fraction that is retrofitted having intensity of new capital.

Retrofit potential [EndUseSector]*Nonelec Fuel intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+ (1-Retrofit potential [EndUseSector])*Average original nonelec fuel intensity 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]




Retrofit potential [EndUseSector]*Nonelec Fuel intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+ (1-Retrofit potential [EndUseSector])*Average original nonelec fuel intensity 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]




Retrofit potential [EndUseSector]*Nonelec Fuel intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+ (1-Retrofit potential




Parameter Definition Units[EndUseSector])*Average original nonelec fuel intensity 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 1[[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

The decrease in nonelectric energy requirements by fuel of vintage 1 from the originally installed capital due to retrofitting.

MAX(0, (Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-Nonelec fuel requirements from retrofits 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath])*Rate of retrofitting [EndUseSector])

(EJ/Year)/Year




(EJ/Year)/Year




(EJ/Year)/Year

Total nonelec fuel retrofitting[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Sum of nonelectric energy by fuel retrofitting of each vintage.

Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Total nonelec fuel discarding[EndUseSector,

Sum of nonelectric energy by fuel discarding of each vintage. (EJ/Year)/Year




FuelPath]Nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec fuel

discarding 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]+Nonelec fuel discarding 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Nonelectric energy requirements by fuel of capital using nonelectric energy by end use, calculated as the sum of those requirements in each vintage of capital.

Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

EJ/Year

Policy adjustment to nonelec reference demand[EndUseSector]

Noncost policy to adjust nonelectric long term energy demand.

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Reference demand policy stop time[NonElec,EndUseSector], 1, 1-ramp((1-Reference demand adjustment factor[NonElec,EndUseSector])/Years to adjust to policy, Reference demand policy start time[NonElec,EndUseSector], Reference demand policy start time[NonElec,EndUseSector]+Years to adjust to policy))

Dmnl

Nonelec fuel requirements by end use adjusted [EndUseSector,FuelPath]

The long term nonelectric fuel requirements of each fuel adjusted by the noncost policy.

Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Policy adjustment to nonelec reference demand[EndUseSector]

EJ/year

End use shares of nonelec[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

For each fuel type, the fraction of adjusted nonelectric energy for each end use.

Nonelec fuel requirements by end use adjusted[EndUseSector,FuelPath]/Nonelec fuel requirements

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsadjusted[FuelPath]

Reference nonelec energy demand adjusted[Rnonelec]

Maps the Nonelec fuel requirements adjusted that are by FuelPath to the respective Resource of fuel.

Nonelec fuel requirements adjusted[FuelPath])

EJ/year

Total Nonelec fuel requirements by end use [EndUseSector]

For each end use, the total nonelectric energy required before adjustments.

SUM(Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath!])

EJ/year


Table 3-24. Energy Requirements and Intensity Measures Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsTotal energy requirements by end

use and carrier[EndUseSector,Carrier]

EJ/Year

[EndUseSector,Elec] Total elec energy requirements by end use[EndUseSector][EndUseSector,Nonelec] Total Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector]

Total energy requirements by end use[EndUseSector]

SUM(Total energy requirements by end use and carrier[EndUseSector,Carrier!]) EJ/Year

Total energy requirements by carrier[Carrier]

SUM(Total energy requirements by end use and carrier[EndUseSector!,Carrier]) EJ/Year

Elec energy demand to producers of capital 1[EndUseSector]

Elec energy requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector]/(1-"T&D losses"[Elec]) EJ/Year





NonElec fuel demand to producers of capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

T&D losses = 0 for nonelectric demand.

Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]/(1-"T&D losses"[NonElec])

EJ/Year



Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]/(1-“T&D losses”[NonElec])

EJ/Year



Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]/(1-"T&D losses"[NonElec])

EJ/Year

Average intensity of elec energy demand to producers 1 [EndUseSector]

Average of annual elec energy required per dollar of vintage 1 elec capital for each end use.




Parameter Definition UnitsElec energy demand to producers of capital 1[EndUseSector]/Elec

energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]

Average intensity of elec energy demand to producers 2[EndUseSector]


Elec energy demand to producers of capital 2[EndUseSector]/Elec energy consuming capital 2[EndUseSector]


Average intensity of elec energy demand to producers 3[EndUseSector]


Elec energy demand to producers of capital 3[EndUseSector]/Elec energy consuming capital 3[EndUseSector]


Average intensity of nonelec fuel demand to producers 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Average of annual nonelectric energy required per dollar of vintage 1 nonelectric capital by fuel for each end use.

ZIDZ(NonElec fuel demand to producers of capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath], NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath])












Parameter Definition UnitsFraction of energy consuming capital

by end use [EndUseSector]Total energy consuming capital for each end

use[EndUseSector]/Total energy consuming capital Dmnl

Embodied intensity of elec energy demand to producers of capital by end use[EndUseSector]

Average of annual electric energy required per dollar of capital for each end use.

Reference elec demand to producers without policy[EndUseSector]/Total elec energy consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector]


Embodied intensity of nonelec fuel demand to producers of capital by end use [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Average of annual nonelectric energy required per dollar of capital by fuel for each end use.

ZIDZ(Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath],Total nonelec by fuel consuming capital for each end use[EndUseSector,FuelPath])



Table 3-25. Initial Capital and Energy Requirements in Each Vintage


Relative Initial Capital in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]

Relative initial capital in vintage 1, assuming steady-state growth equilibrium at the historic growth rate over the time in vintage 1.

INITIAL(EXP(-GDP rate of change *Vintage 1 Lifetime[EndUseSector]))

Dmnl


Relative initial capital in vintage 2, assuming steady-state growth equilibrium at the historic growth rate over the time in vintages 1 and 2.

INITIAL(EXP(-GDP rate of change *(Vintage 1 Lifetime[EndUseSector]+Vintage 2 Lifetime[EndUseSector])))

Dmnl


Relative initial capital in vintage 3, assuming steady-state growth equilibrium at the historic growth rate over the time in all three vintages, i.e., the capital lifetime.

INITIAL(EXP(-GDP rate of change *Capital lifetime[EndUseSector]))

Dmnl

Sum of Relative Initial Capital[EndUseSector]

Initial relative capital as the weighted average of the initial relative capital of each vintage.

INITIAL(Relative Initial Capital in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]+Relative Initial Capital in Vintage 2[EndUseSector]+Relative Initial Capital in Vintage 3[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Frac Initial Capital in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]

Initial share of capital in vintage 1, assuming steady-state growth equilibrium at the historic growth rate.

INITIAL(Relative Initial Capital in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]/Sum of Relative Initial Capital[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Frac Initial Capital in Vintage Initial share of capital in vintage 2, assuming steady-state growth Dmnl




2[EndUseSector]

equilibrium at the historic growth rate.


Frac Initial Capital in Vintage 3[EndUseSector]

Initial share of capital in vintage 3, assuming steady-state growth equilibrium at the historic growth rate.


Dmnl

Effective Vintage 1 Lifetime[EndUseSector]

The time that the capital remains in the first vintage for each end use accounting for retrofit potential and the rate of retrofitting.

Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector]/3

Years


The time that the capital remains in the second vintage for each end use accounting for retrofit potential and the rate of retrofitting.


Years


The time that the capital remains in the third vintage for each end use accounting for retrofit potential and the rate of retrofitting.


Years

Relative Initial Energy Intensity of Capital 1[EndUseSector]

Initial energy intensity of capital stock in vintage 1, assuming steady state equilibrium at the historic energy intensity trend rate, in which case intensity of the stock lags intensity of new capital by the by the effective time in vintage 1.

INITIAL(EXP(-Historic rate of decrease of energy intensity*Effective Vintage 1 Lifetime[EndUseSector]))

Dmnl


Relative initial energy intensity of capital stock in vintage 2, assuming steady state equilibrium at the historic energy intensity

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitstrend rate, in which case intensity of the stock lags intensity of new capital by the effective time in vintages 1 and 2.

INITIAL(EXP(-Historic rate of decrease of energy intensity*(Effective Vintage 1 Lifetime[EndUseSector]+Effective Vintage 2 Lifetime[EndUseSector])))


Relative initial energy intensity of capital stock in vintage 3, assuming steady state equilibrium at the historic energy intensity trend rate, in which case intensity of the stock lags intensity of new capital by the effective time in all three vintages, i.e., the effective capital lifetime.

INITIAL(EXP(-Historic rate of decrease of energy intensity*Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Sum of relative initial energy[EndUseSector]

Initial relative energy intensity of capital as the weighted average of the initial relative intensity of each vintage.

INITIAL(Frac Initial Capital in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]*Relative Initial Energy Intensity of Capital 1[EndUseSector]+Frac Initial Capital in Vintage 2[EndUseSector]*Relative Initial Energy Intensity of Capital 2[EndUseSector]+Frac Initial Capital in Vintage 3[EndUseSector]*Relative Initial Energy Intensity of Capital 3[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Frac Initial Energy Req in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]

Fraction of initial energy requirements in vintage 1, assuming steady-state growth and energy intensity trend.

INITIAL(Frac Initial Capital in Vintage 1[EndUseSector]*Relative Initial Energy Intensity of Capital 1[EndUseSector]/Sum of relative initial energy[EndUseSector])

Dmnl

Frac Initial Energy Req in Vintage Fraction of initial energy requirements in vintage 2, assuming Dmnl




2[EndUseSector]

steady-state growth and energy intensity trend.


Frac Initial Energy Req in Vintage 3[EndUseSector]

Fraction of initial energy requirements in vintage 3, assuming steady-state growth and energy intensity trend.


Dmnl


4. Formulation of Supply

4.1 Supply of Extracted Fuels, Delivered Fuels, and Electricity Generation

There are three main supply chains to capture the stock and flow of supply capacity of extracted fuel (coal, oil, gas, and biofuel), delivered fuel (coal, oil, gas, and biofuel), and electricity production from each of the electric paths (coal, oil, gas, biofuel, nuclear, hydro, renewables, and new, plus CCS paths of each coal, oil, gas, and biofuel). The model assumes that each extracted fuel is available only for its respective delivered fuel type. Each delivered fuel is available for nonelectric and electric use. Table 4-26 through Table 4-27 define these sources and groupings of sources.

The capacity and utilization and cost of extracted fuels affect the market price of extracted fuels, which feeds into the variable cost of delivered fuels. As such, the market price of extracted fuels affects the capacity, utilization, and market price of delivered fuels, which in turn feeds into the variable cost of electric producers using those fuels. Accordingly, the costs of delivered fuels affect the capacity and utilization of those electricity sources.

Section 5 details the market clearing and utilization of delivered fuels and electricity sources.

Figure 4.23 shows the structure of the sector. Energy supply capacity represents the installed base of usable capital. It depreciates via a constant fractional rate, without age vintaging of the stock. The profitability, however, affects the rate of depreciation. Capacity must go through the development phase and then constructed before it can be used, introducing a delay between initiating and completing the acquisition of new capacity, represented by the Capacity under development stock and the Capacity under construction stock, respectively. The amount of capacity that is planned for construction accounts for the total capacity needed to meet the energy demand, including transmission and delivery losses, plus a reserve margin and expected growth of energy requirements. The Desired capacity addition rate uses the desired capacity to be added for each carrier and the fraction of each carrier to be supplied by each energy path. This rate is adjusted by dividing by the capacity factor of each resource, requiring more of each energy path to be constructed to get the actual desired supply. The constructed supply is then multiplied by the capacity factor to yield the actual capacity. While the Actual Supply Capacity represents the amount of energy from each path that can be dispatched, the Energy Supply Capacity is the amount of energy that is constructed.

The rate of capacity completion is constrained by Development industry capacity. This structure captures supply chain constraints, for example the fact that if wind turbine orders double overnight, completion of new turbines cannot also double immediately. It takes time to acquire labor and machinery and build up other aspects of the necessary supply chain. This has two consequences: with increasing pressure to construct capacity, the effective lead time increases, and the cost of new capacity rises.


Table 4-26 Energy Paths

Energy Path Definition Energy Source Name

Nonelectric

Coal FCoalOil FoilNatural gas FGasBiomass FBio

Electric

Coal ECoalOil EOilNatural gas EGasBiomass EBioNuclear NuclearHydroelectric HydroRenewables RenewCoal with CCS ECoal CCSOil with CCS EOil CCSNatural Gas with CCS EGas CCSBiomass with CCS EBio CCSNew technology New

Table 4-27 Energy Resources

Resource Resource Name DefinitionCoal RCoal FCoal+ECoalOil Roil FOil+EOilGas RGas FGas+EGasBiomass RBio FBio+EBioNuclear RNuc NuclearHydroelectric RHydro HydroRenewables RRenew RenewCoal with CCS RCoal CCS ECoal CCSOil with CCS ROil CCS EOil CCSGas with CCS RGas CCS EGas CCSBiomass with CCS RBio CCS EBio CCSNew tech RNew New technology


Table 4-28 Energy Path Sub-Ranges

Range Paths Included Resource Name

Fossil Fuels

Coal: FCoal, ECoal, ECoal CCS All RCoal: RCoal, RCoal CCS

Oil: Foil, EOil, EOil CCS All Roil: ROil, ROil CCS

Gas: FGas, EGas, EGas CCS All RGas: RGas, RGas CCS

Elec thermal ECoal,EOil,EGas,EBio

CCS Paths ECoal CCS,EOil CCS,EGas CCS,EBio CCS

Elec thermal plus CCS Paths Elec thermal, CCS Paths

ElecExist Elec thermal,Nuclear,Hydro,Renew

` En-ROADS simulator Model Reference Guide

Figure 4.23 Structure of Extracted Fuel Supply Capacity

Extractioncapacity Extraction

capacityretirements

Extractioncapacity on

orderExtraction capacity

completions

Extractioncapacity orders

Ratio of target extractioncapacity completion to

current capability

Utilization ofextraction capacity

Effect of profitability ondesired extraction

capacity

Effect of profitability onextraction capacity

lifetime

Extraction capacityconstruction

capabilityTarget extractioncapacity completion

<Expected profitmargin for primary

fuel>

Time to developextraction capacity

construction capability

Utilization of extractioncapacity construction

capability

Desired extractioncapacity completions

Extraction capacityadjustment time

Desired extractioncapacity on order

Extraction capacitysupply line recognition

<Initial multiplier onEC on order>

<Normal extractioncapacity order

completion time>

<Normal utilization ofextraction capacity>

<Initial utilization ofextraction capacity>

Slope for effect on EClifetime when negative

profitability

Slope for effect on EClifetime when positive

profitability

Extractioncapacity lifetime

Slope for effect ofprofitability on EC

lifetime

Normal extractioncapacity lifetime

<Normal extractioncapacity lifetime>

Normal utilization ofextraction capacity


Initial extractioncapacity

Centralization ofextraction

<Expected fueldemand>

Desired extractioncapacity if centralized

Desired extractioncapacity if

decentralized

Desired extractioncapacity

<Expected fueldemand growth rate>

<Demand ofrefined fuels>

<Extractioncapacity>

Multiplier on desiredextraction capacity when

100 pct profit margin


Figure 4.24 Structure of Delivered Fuel Supply Capacity

Fuel supplycapacity Fuel Retiring

capacity

Fuel Capacityunder

construction Fuel Completingcapacity

Normal fuel capacitysupply line time

Fuel capacityconstruction starting

Average fuelcapacity construction

time

Fuel Capacityunder

developmentFuel Capacitydevelopment starting

Fuel Developmentfraction

Fuel Capacitysupply line

Fuel Plantconstruction

capabilityUtilization of fuel plantconstruction capability

Target fuel capacitycompletion

Ratio of target fuelcapacity completion to

current capability

Desired fuelconstruction starts

Desired fuel capacityunder construction

Desired fuel capacityunder development

Fuel demandgrowth rate

Recent fueldemand

Expected fueldemand

Expected fueldemand growth rate

Initial fuel expecteddemand growth rate

Desired fuelcapacity ifcentralized

Desired fuelconstructioncompletions

<Actualretirement rate>

<Normalconstructionutilization>

<Plant constructioncapability adjustment

time>

<Growthrecognition>

<Demandsmoothing time>

<Supply linerecognition>

<Stockadjustment time>

<Supply linerecognition>


Initial fuelcapacity

<Demand ofdelivered fuels>

<Expected fueldemand growth rate>

<Normalutilization for fuel>

Oil capacity

<WEO primaryenergy EJ>

Effect of profitability ondesired fuel delivered

capacity

Multiplier on desireddelivered fuel capacity when

100 pct profit margin

<SmoothedPCCR>

Desired fuelcapacity if

decentralizedDesired fuel

capacity

<Fuel supplycapacity>

<Initial fuel utilizationfrom initial PCCR>

<Plant developmenttime for delivered

fuels>

<Plant constructiontime for delivered

fuels>

<Plant developmenttime for delivered

fuels>

<Plant constructiontime for delivered

fuels>

Recent deliveredcapacity growth rate

Delivered fuelcapacity growth rate

Delivered fuel growthassessment time

Initial deliveredcapacity growth rate

<Demand growthassessment time for

delivered fuel>

<Centralization ofdelivered fuel>


Figure 4.25 Structure of Electric Supply Capacity

Elec Energysupply

capacityElec Retiring

capacity

Elec carrier capacityretirements

Elec Capacityunder

constructionElec Completing

capacity

Normal eleccapacity supply line

time

Elec Capacityconstruction starting

Elec carrier energysupply capacity

<Initial supplycapacity>

Average elec pathcapacity construction

time

Elec Capacityunder

developmentElec Capacitydevelopment starting

Elec Developmentfraction

Elec capacitysupply line

<Actual ElecFraction invested>

Elec PlantconstructioncapabilityUtilization of elec plant


Plant constructioncapability adjustment

timeTarget elec capacitycompletion

<Plant constructiontime for electricity>

Demandsmoothing time

Demand growthassessment time for

electricity

Ratio of target eleccapacity completion to

current capabilityNormal construction

utilization

Elec carrierdemand growth rate

Expected elec carrierdemand growth rate

Initial elec expecteddemand growth rate

Recent eleccarrier demand

Expected eleccarrier demand

Desired eleccarrier capacity

Growthrecognition

<Normal utilizationfor elec>

Stockadjustment time Supply line

recognition

Desired elec pathconstruction starts

Desired elec pathcapacity under

construction

<Plant constructiontime for electricity>

Desired elec pathcapacity underdevelopment

<Expected elec carrierdemand growth rate>

<Expected elec carrierdemand growth rate>

Desired elec carrierconstructioncompletions

Desired elecconstruction

completions by path


<Aggregate elecdemand to producers>

<Actualretirement rate>

<Plant developmenttime for electricity>

<Plant developmenttime for electricity>

Figure 4.26 Retirement Rates of Delivered Fuel and Electric Supply Capacity

Refining capitallifetime

<Acceleratedretirement rate electric>

Actual retirementrate

Retirement adjustedfor profitability

Normalretirement rate

Effect of profitability onretirement by source

Time to assessprofitability for

retirementExpected PCCR asinput to retirement

<Profit to capital costratio for elec>

Retirement effect atzero PCCR by carrier

Retirement effectexponent by carrier

Adjusted Retirementeffect max by carrier

Retirement effectmin by source

Retirement effectmax by carrier

Effect of profitability onretirement by path

Initial Profit tocapital cost ratio

<Profit to capital costratio for fuels>

PCCR

<exp max>

Electric supplycapital lifetime

Supply lifetime

Acceleratedretirement rate

<Acceleratedretirement rate refining>


Table 4-29 Extracted Fuel Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs


Extraction capacity adjustment time Time to adjust stock of extracted capacity on order to desired level. 1-10 4 Years

Extraction capacity supply line recognition

Multiplier to recognize fraction of difference between desired capacity on order and actual capacity on order to what is added to the capacity added to the order.

0-1 0.5 Dmnl

Multiplier on desired extraction capacity when 100 pct profit margin

The sensitivity parameter driving the expansion or contraction per year as a fraction of existing production capacity.

1-2 1.10 Dmnl

Normal utilization of extraction capacity 0-1 0.8 Dmnl

Centralization of extraction[Rnonelec]

Fraction of extraction capacity that is centralized and therefore the desired extraction capacity that is determined by the expected fuel demand and normal utilization. The fraction that is not centratilized is determined by the profitability and current extraction capacity.

0-1 0.3 Dmnl

Initial multiplier on EC on order[Rnonelec] 1-5 1 DmnlCoal 5

Oil, Gas, Bio 1Normal EC order completion time[Rnonelec] 1-10 4 YearsInitial profit margin for primary[Rnonelec] -0.5-0.5 0.1 DmnlInitial utilization of EC[Rnonelec] 0.5-1 0.5, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8 DmnlTime to develop extraction capacity

construction capability[Rnonelec]Adjusts the time to complete construction to reflect capacitated delays due to the limits of construction

1-20 3 Years


Table 4-29 Extracted Fuel Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitsmaterials/resources.

Normal utilization of extraction capacity construction capability 0.8 Dmnl

Slope for effect on EC lifetime when negative profitability

Allows for profitability to affect the extraction capacity retirement rate. 0-0.5 0 Dmnl

Slope for effect on EC lifetime when positive profitability

Allows for profitability to affect the extraction capacity retirement rate. 0-0.5 0 Dmnl


Table 4-30 Delivered Fuel Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs


Stock adjustment timeTime to adjust stock of delivered fuel capacity under development to desired level.

1-10 4 Years

Supply line recognition

Multiplier to recognize fraction of difference between desired capacity under development and under construction and actual capacity under development and under construction to what is added to the capacity added to the order.

0-1 0.5 Dmnl

Multiplier on desired delivered fuel capacity when 100 pct profit margin

The sensitivity parameter driving the expansion or contraction per year as a fraction of existing production capacity.

1-2 1.10 Dmnl

Centralization of delivered fuel [Rnonelec]

Fraction of delivered fuel capacity that is centralized and therefore the desired delivered fuel capacity that is determined by the expected fuel demand and normal utilization. The fraction that is not centratilized is determined by the profitability and current delivered fuel capacity.

0-1 0.9 Dmnl

Initial fuel expected demand growth rate[Rnonelec] -0.01-.1 1/year

Coal 0.001Oil 0.01

Gas 0.05Bio 0.03

Demand growth assessment time for delivered fuels 1-20 6 Years

Plant construction capability adjustment time Adjusts the time to complete 1-40 5 Years


Table 4-30 Delivered Fuel Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitsconstruction to reflect capacitated delays due to the limits of construction materials/resources.

Normal construction utilization 0.86 Dmnl

Plant development time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

The number of years between ordering a unit of this type of source until the time that construction begins. The time it takes to get government approval for siting, safety, air quality, waste disposal, and other needs, including public comment and review, planning, and securing financing. As studied by Jacobsen, 2009 and others. See "Construction and Permitting times.xls" for details.

Years

Coal 2Oil 2

Gas 2Bio 1

Plant construction time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

The number of years between starting to construct the new resource unit until the time that construction is completed; assumes permitting, planning and financing precede construction. See "Construction and Permitting times.xls" for details.

Years

Coal 4Oil 4

Gas 2Bio 4


Table 4-31 Electric Energy Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values UnitsInitial elec expected demand growth rate -0.01-.1 0.04 1/yearDemand growth assessment time for

electricity 1-20 8 Years

Plant construction capability adjustment time

Adjusts the time to complete construction to reflect capacitated delays due to the limits of construction materials/resources.

1-40 5 Years

Normal construction utilization 0.86 Dmnl

Plant development time for electricity[ElecPath]

The number of years between ordering a unit of this type of source until the time that construction begins. The time it takes to get government approval for siting, safety, air quality, waste disposal, and other needs, including public comment and review, planning, and securing financing. As studied by Jacobsen, 2009 and others. See "Construction and Permitting times.xls" for details.

Years

Coal 2Coal CCS 2

Oil 2Oil CCS 2

Gas 2Gas CCS 2

Bio 1Bio CCS 1Nuclear 6

Hydro 1Renewables 1


Table 4-31 Electric Energy Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values UnitsNew Tech 1

Plant construction time for electricity [ElecPath]

The number of years between starting to construct the new resource unit until the time that construction is completed; assumes permitting, planning and financing precede construction. See "Construction and Permitting times.xls" for details.

Years

Coal 6Coal CCS 6

Oil 4Oil CCS 4

Gas 2Gas CCS 2


Hydro 4Renewables 2

New Tech 2


Table 4-32 Retirement Rates of Delivered Fuel and Electric Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs


Delivered fuel capital lifetime[Rnonelec]Time that the delivered fuel capital is active before being retired for each energy resource.

1-50 Years

Coal 30Oil 30

Gas 30Bio 40

Electric supply capital lifetime[ElecPath]Time that the electric supply capital is active before being retired for each energy resource.

1-50 Years

Coal 30Coal CCS 30

Oil 30Oil CCS 30

Gas 30Gas CCS 30


Hydro 30Renewables 25

New Tech 30Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier] 3 DmnlRetirement effect at zero PCCR by

carrier[Carrier] 2 Dmnl

Retirement effect min by source[Carrier] 0.8 DmnlTime to assess profitability for retirement 1-30 5 Years


Table 4-32 Retirement Rates of Delivered Fuel and Electric Supply Capacity Parameter Inputs


Target accelerated retirement rate delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

The forced increase in retirement rate starting in the specified year for each delivered fuel.

0-0.1 0 1/year

Target accelerated retirement rate electric[ElecPath]

The forced increase in retirement rate starting in the specified year for each electric path.

0-0.1 0 1/year


Table 4-33. Extracted Fuel Supply Capacity Calculated Parameters


Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

The available extraction capacity for each fuel.

INTEG(Extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec]-Extraction capacity retirements[Rnonelec], Initial extraction capacity[Rnonelec])

Extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec]

The extraction capacity for each extracted fuel on order.

INTEG(Extraction capacity orders[Rnonelec]-Extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec], (Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]/Normal extraction capacity lifetime[Rnonelec])*Normal extraction capacity order completion time[Rnonelec]* Initial multiplier on EC on order[Rnonelec])

EJ/Year

Initial extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]/Initial utilization of extraction capacity[Rnonelec] EJ/year

Utilization of extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

The fraction of capacity that is used, assuming all extracted is delivered.

ZIDZ(Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec],Extraction capacity[Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Extraction capacity orders[Rnonelec]

The amount of extraction capacity being ordered each year.

MAX(0, Desired extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec] + Desired extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec]*Expected fuel demand growth rate[Rnonelec] + Extraction capacity supply line recognition * (Desired extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec] - Extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec])/Extraction capacity adjustment time)

EJ/year/year

Extraction capacity The amount of extraction capacity being retired each year. EJ/year/year




retirements[Rnonelec] Extraction capacity[Rnonelec] / Extraction capacity lifetime[Rnonelec]

Extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec]

The amount of extraction capacity of each fuel that completes the construction process each year.

Extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec] * Utilization of extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec]

EJ/year/year

Desired extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec]

Desired extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec] * Normal extraction capacity order completion time[Rnonelec] EJ/year

Target extraction capacity completion[Rnonelec]

Extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec] / Normal extraction capacity order completion time[Rnonelec] EJ/year/year

Utilization of extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec]

MIN(1, Target extraction capacity completion[Rnonelec] / Extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec]) Dmnl

Extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec]

The industry capacity is a function of what the current target is, delayed by the time it takes to adjust the plant's capability.

SMOOTH3(Target extraction capacity completion[Rnonelec]/Normal utilization of extraction capacity construction capability, Time to develop extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec])

EJ/year/year

Ratio of target extraction capacity completion to current capability[Rnonelec]

Target extraction capacity completion[Rnonelec] / Extraction capacity construction capability[Rnonelec] Dmnl

Desired extraction capacity if centralized[Rnonelec]

Expected fuel demand[Rnonelec] / Normal utilization of extraction capacity EJ/Year

Effect of profitability on desired extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

Development increases when expected profits are high and contracts when expected profits are low. The sensitivity parameter is the fractional rate of expansion or contraction per

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsyear as a fraction of existing production capacity.

1 + (Multiplier on desired extraction capacity when 100 pct profit margin-1) * Expected profit margin for primary fuel[Rnonelec]

Desired extraction capacity if decentralized[Rnonelec]

Effect of profitability on desired extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*Extraction capacity[Rnonelec] EJ/Year

Desired extraction capacity

Weighted average of desired capacity as determined if centralized and if decentralized.

MAX(0, Centralization of extraction[Rnonelec]*Desired extraction capacity if centralized[Rnonelec]+(1-Centralization of extraction[Rnonelec])*Desired extraction capacity if decentralized[Rnonelec])

EJ/year

Slope for effect of profitability on EC lifetime[Rnonelec]

Slope of profitability effect on the retirement rate of the extraction capacity. Defaults to no effect on the rate.

IF THEN ELSE(Expected profit margin for primary fuel[Rnonelec]>0, Slope for effect on EC lifetime when positive profitability, Slope for effect on EC lifetime when negative profitability)

Dmnl

Effect of profitability on extraction capacity lifetime[Rnonelec]

Increases or decreases the retirement rate of the extraction capacity depending on its profitability. Defaults to no effect on the rate.

1 + Expected profit margin for primary fuel[Rnonelec]*Slope for effect of profitability on EC lifetime[Rnonelec]

Dmnl

Extraction capacity lifetime[Rnonelec]

Normal extraction capacity lifetime [Rnonelec] * Effect of profitability on extraction capacity lifetime[Rnonelec] Years

Extracion capacity growth rateLN(Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]/SMOOTH(Extraction

capacity[Rnonelec], Extraction capacity growth assessment time))/Extraction capacity growth assessment time

1/year




Recent extraction capacity growth rate[Rnonelec]

SMOOTHi(Extracion capacity growth rate[Rnonelec], Extraction capacity growth assessment time,Initial extraction capacity growth rate[Rnonelec])

1/year


Table 4-34. Delivered Fuel Supply Capacity Calculated Parameters


Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]The available capacity of each delivered fuel.INTEG(Fuel Completing capacity[Rnonelec]-Fuel Retiring

capacity[Rnonelec], Initial fuel capacity[Rnonelec])

Fuel Capacity under construction [Rnonelec]

The capacity under construction of each delivered fuel.INTEG(Fuel capacity construction starting[Rnonelec]-Fuel

Completing capacity[Rnonelec], Desired fuel capacity under construction[Rnonelec])

EJ/Year

Fuel Capacity under development[Rnonelec]

The capacity under development of each delivered fuel.

INTEG(Fuel Capacity development starting[Rnonelec]-Fuel capacity construction starting[Rnonelec], Desired fuel capacity under development[Rnonelec])

EJ/year

Initial fuel capacity [Rnonelec] WEO primary energy EJ[Rnonelec]/Initial utilization from initial PCCR[Rnonelec] EJ/year

Fuel Retiring capacity[Rnonelec]The amount of delivered fuel capacity being retired each year.

Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]*Actual retirement rate [FuelPath]EJ/year/year

Fuel Completing capacity[Rnonelec]

The amount of capacity of each delivered fuel that completes the construction process each year.

Fuel Plant construction capability[Rnonelec]*Utilization of fuel plant construction capability[Rnonelec]

EJ/year/year

Fuel capacity construction starting[Rnonelec]

The amount of capacity of each delivered fuel that begins the construction process each year, following development.

Fuel Capacity under development[Rnonelec]/Plant development time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

EJ/year/year

Fuel Capacity development starting[Rnonelec]

The amount of capacity of each delivered fuel that begins the development process each year.

EJ/year/year



Parameter Definition UnitsMAX(0, Desired fuel construction starts[Rnonelec] + Desired fuel

capacity under development[Rnonelec]*Expected fuel demand growth rate [Rnonelec] + Supply line recognition *(Desired fuel capacity under development[Rnonelec]-Fuel Capacity under development[Rnonelec])/Stock adjustment time )

Desired fuel capacity under development[Rnonelec]

The amount of delivered fuel capacity being ordered each year.

Desired fuel construction starts[Rnonelec] * Plant development time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

EJ/year

Desired fuel construction starts[Rnonelec]

MAX(0, Desired fuel construction completions[Rnonelec] + Desired fuel capacity under construction[Rnonelec]*Expected fuel demand growth rate

[Rnonelec] + Supply line recognition*(Desired fuel capacity under construction[Rnonelec]-Fuel Capacity under construction[Rnonelec])/Stock adjustment time)

EJ/year/year

Desired fuel capacity under construction[Rnonelec]

Desired fuel construction completions[Rnonelec]* Plant construction time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec] EJ/year

Desired fuel capacity if centralized [Rnonelec]

Expected fuel demand[Rnonelec] / Normal utilization for fuel[Rnonelec] EJ/Year

Effect of profitability on desired delivered fuel capacity[Rnonelec]

Development increases when expected profits are high and contracts when expected profits are low. The sensitivity parameter is the fractional rate of expansion or contraction per year as a fraction of existing production capacity.

1 + (Multiplier on desired delivered fuel capacity when 100 pct profit margin-1) * Smoothed PCCR[NonElec,Rnonelec]

Dmnl

Desired fuel capacity if decentralized [Rnonelec]

Effect of profitability on desired delivered fuel capacity[Rnonelec]*Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec] EJ/Year

Desired fuel capacity[Rnonelec] Weighted average of desired capacity as determined if centralized and if decentralized.

EJ/year




MAX(0, Centralization of delivered fuel[Rnonelec]*Desired fuel capacity if centralized[Rnonelec]+(1-Centralization of delivered fuel[Rnonelec])*Desired fuel capacity if decentralized[Rnonelec])

Expected fuel demand growth rate[Rnonelec]

Growth recognition * SMOOTHi(Fuel demand growth rate[Rnonelec], Demand growth assessment time for delivered fuels, Initial fuel expected demand growth rate[Rnonelec])

1/year

Fuel demand growth rate[Rnonelec]

LN(Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]/SMOOTH(Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec], Demand growth assessment time for delivered fuels))/Demand growth assessment time for delivered fuels

1/year

Recent fuel demand[Rnonelec]SMOOTHi(Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec], Demand

smoothing time, Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*EXP(-Fuel demand growth rate[Rnonelec]*Demand smoothing time))

EJ/year

Expected fuel demand[Rnonelec] MAX(0, Recent fuel demand[Rnonelec]* (1 + Expected fuel demand growth rate[Rnonelec]*Demand smoothing time)) EJ/year

Target fuel capacity completion[Rnonelec]

Fuel Capacity under construction[Rnonelec]/Plant construction time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec] EJ/year/year

Ratio of target fuel capacity completion to current capability[Rnonelec]

ZIDZ(Target fuel capacity completion[Rnonelec],Fuel Plant construction capability[Rnonelec]) Dmnl

Utilization of fuel plant construction capability[Rnonelec]

MIN(1,Ratio of target fuel capacity completion to current capability[Rnonelec]) Dmnl

Fuel Plant construction capability[Rnonelec]


SMOOTH3(Target fuel capacity completion[Rnonelec]/Normal construction utilization,Plant construction capability adjustment

EJ/year/year



Parameter Definition Unitstime)

Average fuel capacity construction time

ZIDZ(Fuel Capacity under construction[Rnonelec],Fuel Completing capacity[Rnonelec]) Years

Normal fuel capacity supply line time[Rnonelec]

The total delay from construction and development without capacitated delays.

Plant construction time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]+Plant development time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

Years

Fuel Development fraction[Rnonelec]

Plant development time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]/Normal fuel capacity supply line time[Rnonelec] Dmnl

Fuel Capacity supply line[Rnonelec] Fuel Capacity under development[Rnonelec]+Fuel Capacity under construction[Rnonelec] EJ/year

Delivered fuel capacity growth rate[Rnonelec]

LN(Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]/SMOOTH(Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec], Delivered fuel growth assessment time))/Delivered fuel growth assessment time

1/year

Recent delivered capacity growth rate[Rnonelec]

SMOOTHi(Delivered fuel capacity growth rate[Rnonelec], Delivered fuel growth assessment time,Initial delivered capacity growth rate[Rnonelec])

1/year


Table 4-35. Electric Energy Supply Capacity Calculated Parameters


Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath

The available capacity of each electric path.

INTEG(Elec Completing capacity[ElecPath]-Elec Retiring capacity[ElecPath], Initial supply capacity[ElecPath])

EJ/year

Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath]

The electric energy capacity of each source under construction.

INTEG(Elec Capacity construction starting[ElecPath]-Elec Completing capacity[ElecPath], Desired elec path capacity under construction[ElecPath])

EJ/Year

Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath]

The electric energy capacity of each source path under development.

INTEG(Elec Capacity development starting[ElecPath]-Elec Capacity construction starting[ElecPath], Desired elec path capacity under development[ElecPath])

EJ/year

Initial supply capacity[ElecPath]

Initialized to 1990 WEO power generation and initial electric utilization consistent with calculated indicated utilization as per market clearing and utilization, discussed in Section 5.

ZIDZ(Initial generation[ElecPath],Initial elec utilization[ElecPath])

EJ/year

Elec Retiring capacity[ElecPath]

The amount of electric energy capacity of each source is retired each year.

Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath]*Actual retirement rate[ElecPath]

EJ/year/year

Elec Completing capacity[ElecPath]

The amount of electric energy capacity of each source that completes the construction process each year.

Elec Plant construction capability[ElecPath]*Utilization of elec plant construction capability[ElecPath]

EJ/year/year




Elec Capacity construction starting[ElecPath]

The amount of electric energy capacity of each source that begins the construction process each year, following development.

Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath]/Plant development time for electricity[ElecPath]

EJ/year/year

Elec Capacity development starting[ElecPath]

The amount of electric energy capacity of each source that begins the development process each year.

MAX(0, Desired elec path construction starts[ElecPath] + Desired elec path capacity under development[ElecPath]*Expected elec carrier demand growth rate + Supply line recognition*(Desired elec path capacity under development[ElecPath]-Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath])/Stock adjustment time)

EJ/year/year

Desired elec path capacity under development[ElecPath]

For each source, the desired amount of electric energy capacity under development to achieve the desired amount of electric capacity.

Desired elec path construction starts[ElecPath] * Plant development time for electricity[ElecPath]

EJ/year

Desired elec path capacity under construction[ElecPath]

For each source, the desired amount of electric energy capacity under construction to achieve the desired amount of electric capacity.

Desired elec construction completions by path[ElecPath] * Plant construction time for electricity[ElecPath]

EJ/year

Desired elec path construction starts[ElecPath]

For each source, the desired amount of electric energy capacity starting construction to achieve the desired amount of electric capacity.

MAX(0, Desired elec construction completions by path[ElecPath] +

EJ/year/year



Parameter Definition UnitsDesired elec path capacity under construction[ElecPath]*Expected elec carrier demand growth rate+ Supply line recognition*(Desired elec path capacity under construction[ElecPath]-Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath])/Stock adjustment time)

Desired elec construction completions by path[ElecPath]

The desired amount of electric energy capacity from each path to be completing construction, where the fraction of the total desired capacity is determined in the logit function, discussed in Section Error: Reference source not found.

Actual Elec Fraction invested[ElecPath]*Desired elec carrier construction completions

EJ/year

Desired elec carrier construction completions

The desired amount of total electric capacity to be completed to achieve the desired amount of electric capacity..

MAX(0, Elec carrier capacity retirements + Desired elec carrier capacity*Expected elec carrier demand growth rate + (Desired elec carrier capacity-Elec carrier energy supply capacity)/Stock adjustment time)

EJ/year/year

Desired elec carrier capacity

The desired amount of total electric capacity. Assumes 100% centralized.

Expected elec carrier demand/ Normal utilization for elec

EJ/year

Expected elec carrier demand Recent elec carrier demand* (1 + Expected elec carrier demand growth rate*Demand smoothing time) EJ/year

Recent elec carrier demand

SMOOTHi(Aggregate elec demand to producers, Demand smoothing time

, Aggregate elec demand to producers*EXP(-Elec carrier demand growth rate*Demand smoothing time))

EJ/year

Elec carrier demand growth rate LN(Aggregate elec demand to producers/SMOOTH(Aggregate elec 1/year



Parameter Definition Unitsdemand to producers, Demand growth assessment time for electricity)

)/Demand growth assessment time for electricity

Expected elec carrier demand growth rate

Growth recognition * SMOOTHi(Elec carrier demand growth rate, Demand growth assessment time for electricity, Initial elec expected demand growth rate)

1/year

Elec carrier energy supply capacityTotal electric energy capacity.

SUM(Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath!])EJ/year

Elec carrier capacity retirementsTotal electric energy retiring.

SUM(Elec Retiring capacity[ElecPath!])EJ/year/year

Target elec capacity completion[ElecPath]

Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath]/Plant construction time for electricity[ElecPath] EJ/year/year

Ratio of target elec capacity completion to current capability[ElecPath]

ZIDZ(Target elec capacity completion[ElecPath],Elec Plant construction capability[ElecPath]) Dmnl

Utilization of elec plant construction capability[ElecPath]

MIN(1,Ratio of target elec capacity completion to current capability[ElecPath]) Dmnl

Elec Plant construction capability[ElecPath


SMOOTH3(Target elec capacity completion[ElecPath]/Normal construction utilization,Plant construction capability adjustment time)

EJ/year/year

Average elec path capacity construction time[ElecPath]

ZIDZ(Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath],Elec Completing capacity[ElecPath]) Years

Normal elec capacity supply line time[ElecPath]

The total delay from construction and development without capacitated delays.

Years




Plant construction time for electricity[ElecPath]+Plant development time for electricity[ElecPath]

Elec Development fraction[ElecPath]

Plant development time for electricity[ElecPath]/Normal elec capacity supply line time[ElecPath] Dmnl

Elec capacity supply line[ElecPath] Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath]+Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath] EJ/year

Elec capacity growth rate 1/year

ElecExist

LN(Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecExist]/SMOOTH(Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecExist], Elec capacity assessment time

))/Elec capacity assessment time

CCS and New

IF THEN ELSE(Elec Energy supply capacity[CCS and New]>vmin(Initial supply capacity[ElecExist!]),LN(Elec Energy supply capacity[CCS and New]/SMOOTH(Elec Energy supply capacity[CCS and New], Elec capacity assessment time))/Elec capacity assessment time, 0)

Recent elec capacity growth rate[ElecPath]

SMOOTHi(Elec capacity growth rate[ElecPath], Elec capacity assessment time,Initial elec capacity growth rate[ElecPath]) 1/year


Table 4-36. Retirement Rates of Delivered Fuel and Electric Supply Capacity Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsSupply lifetime[EnergyPath] Years

[FuelPath] Delivered fuel capital lifetime[Rnonelec][ElecPath] Electric supply capital lifetime[Resource]

Normal retirement rate[EnergyPath] 1/Supply lifetime[EnergyPath] 1/year

Actual retirement rate[EnergyPath] MIN(1, Retirement adjusted for profitability[EnergyPath]+Accelerated retirement rate[EnergyPath]) 1/year

Accelerated retirement rate[EnergyPath]

[FuelPath] Accelerated retirement rate delivered fuels[Rnonelec][ElecPath] Accelerated retirement rate electric[ElecPath]

Accelerated retirement rate delivered fuels[Rnonelec[

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for phase 2, STEP(Target accelerated retirement rate delivered fuels[Rnonelec],Accelerated retirement start year delivered fuels[Rnonelec]), STEP(Target accelerated retirement rate phase 2 delivered fuels[Rnonelec], Start year for phase 2))

1/year

Accelerated retirement rate electric[ElecPath]

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for phase 2, STEP(Target accelerated retirement rate electric[ElecPath],Accelerated retirement start year electric[ElecPath]), STEP(Target accelerated retirement rate phase 2 electric[ElecPath], Start year for phase 2))

1/year

Retirement adjusted for profitability[EnergyPath]

Normal retirement rate[EnergyPath]*Effect of profitability on retirement by path[EnergyPath] 1/year

Effect of profitability on retirement by path[EnergyPath]

Maps the Effect of profitability on retirement by source that is by carrier and resource to the energypaths.

Effect of profitability on retirement by source[Carrier, Resource]

Dmnl

Effect of profitability on retirement Affects the lifetime of supply capital depending on profitability Dmnl




by source[Carrier, Resource] over the time to assess it according to an S-shape curve defined by the min, max, and zero effect parameters.

Effect of profitability on retirement by source[Carrier,

Resource] :EXCEPT: [NonElec, CCS plus elec only]

1/ ( ((1/Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier]) + ((1/Retirement effect at zero PCCR by carrier[Carrier])-(1/Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier]))*EXP(MIN(exp max,Retirement effect exponent by carrier[Carrier]*Expected PCCR as input to retirement[Carrier,Resource]))) / ( 1 + ((1/Retirement effect at zero PCCR by carrier[Carrier])-(1/Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier])) / (1/Retirement effect min by source[Carrier]) *(EXP(MIN(exp max,Retirement effect exponent by carrier[Carrier]*Expected PCCR as input to retirement[Carrier,Resource]))-1)) )

Effect of profitability on retirement by source[ [NonElec, CCS plus

elec only]:NA:

Retirement effect exponent by carrier[Carrier]

INITIAL(LN( ( (1/Retirement effect min by source[Carrier])*((1/Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier])-1) + ((1/Retirement effect at zero PCCR by carrier[Carrier]) - (1/Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier])) ) / ( ((1/Retirement effect at zero PCCR by carrier[Carrier])-(1/Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier])) * (1-(1/Retirement effect min by source[Carrier])) ) ))

Dmnl

Adjusted Retirement effect max by carrier

Forces retirement max effect to be at greater than the effect at zero PCCR.

INITIAL(MAX(Retirement effect max by carrier[Carrier], Retirement effect at zero PCCR by carrier[Carrier]+0.01))

Dmnl

PCCR[Carrier, Resource] Brings the Profit to capital cost ratio (PCCR) for electric and Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsdelivered fuels capacity into one variable.

PCCR[Elec,Resource] Profit to capital cost ratio for elec[Resource]PCCR[NonElec,Rnonelec] Profit to capital cost ratio for fuels[Rnonelec]

PCCR[NonElec,Resource] :EXCEPT: [NonElec, RNonelec] 0

Expected PCCR as input to retirement[Carrier, Resource]

SMOOTHi(PCCR[Carrier,Resource], Time to assess profitability for retirement, Initial Profit to capital cost ratio[Carrier,Resource])

Dmnl

Initial Profit to capital cost ratio[Carrier, Resource] INITIAL(PCCR[Carrier,Resource]) Dmnl


4.2 Drivers of Cost of Supply

Several factors affect the cost of each supply source, including, A baseline or reference cost, a learning-by-doing effect from the accumulation of experience in capacity installation, a reduction in cost due to the accumulation of R&D an exogenous user-specified cost reduction from technological breakthroughs, cost of fuels as determined by the delivered fuel market price and efficiency of fuel use resource constraints, source subsidies/taxes, emissions cost from carbon pricing, a premium on non-dispatchable electricity sources, when their market share is high A “pipeline overheating” premium from supply chain constraints on capacity installation,

Section 4.1.

Figure 4.27 and Figure 4.37 show general structure of these many sources driving the source cost, and thus the cost effect attractiveness. Model structures to calculate the inputs, i.e., tech effect, dispatchability effect, pipeline effect, and emissions cost, are shown in Figure 4.28 through Figure 4.32.


Figure 4.27 Reference Cost

New tech ref costmultiplier

Reference capitalcost

<Fraction of internalcost that is capital>

Reference O&Mcost

Reference costwithout fuel

Ref O&M and capitalcost for delivered fuels Initial delivered fuel

PCCR

Reference costwithout fuel for elec

<100 percent> <CCS increase incost>

<Initial price ofdelivered fuels>

<Price ofextracted fuel>

Capital cost forelec in 2019

Reference cost forelec in 2019

Time to 2019

<J per GJ><J per sec perMW>

<seconds perhour>

<Fraction of internalcost that is capital>

Cost improvementrate to 2019


Table 4-37 Reference Cost Parameter Inputs


Cost improvement rate to 2019[EnergyPath]

Estimated rate of cost improvement of each path. 1/year

Coal -0.01Oil 0.005

Gas 0.003Bio 0.015

Nuclear 0.015Hydro 0.012

Renewables 0.043CCS and New 0

Time to 2019 Time from 1990 to 2019 29 Years

Capital cost for elec in 2019[ElecExist]Capital costs of new capacity as reported by EIA for 2019. Estimated averages for several values.

dollars/(MW*hour)

Coal 64.2Oil 70

Gas 16Bio 61.9


Renewables 80

New tech ref cost multiplierSets the reference cost of new tech to be this factor times the max of the cost of the existing sources.

1-100 10 dmnl

Fraction of internal cost that is capital[EnergyPath]

Fraction of marginal internal cost of each path that represents the marginal annualized capital costs. The

0-1 Dmnl


Table 4-37 Reference Cost Parameter Inputs


remainder is the marginal O&M cost. Assumes the fraction is the same for the electric thermal paths with and without CCS.

[FuelPath]Coal 0.8

Oil 0.8Gas 0.8Bio 0.8

[ElecPath]Coal 0.8

Oil 0.6Gas 0.3Bio 0.8


Renewables 0.9New 0.9

CCS increase in cost[CCS Paths] PercentCoal, Oil, Bio 30

Oil 75

Initial delivered fuel PCCR[Rnonelec] Initial profit per annualized capital cost of delivered fuel. 1 Dmnl


Table 4-38. Reference Cost Calculated Parameters


Reference cost for elec in 1990[ElecPath]

Takes capital cost from 2019 and calculates the total cost, converting it to $/GJ.

Capital cost for elec in 2019[ElecExist]*(J per GJ/J per sec per MW/seconds per hour)/Fraction of internal cost that is capital[ElecExist]

$/GJ

Reference cost without fuel for elec[ElecPath]

The baseline cost of each electric energy path without fuel costs, calculated for the existing paths by taking the reported 2019 values and assumed cost improvement rates.

$/GJ

[ElecPath] :EXCEPT: [CCS and New]

INITIAL(Reference cost for elec in 2019[ElecExist]*EXP(Time to 2019*Cost improvement rate to 2019[ElecExist]))

[CCS Paths] INITIAL(Reference cost without fuel for elec[Elec thermal] *(1+CCS increase in cost[CCS Paths]/"100 percent"))

[New] INITIAL(vmax(Reference cost without fuel for elec[ElecExist!])*New tech ref cost multiplier)

"Ref O&M and capital cost for delivered fuels"

(Initial price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]-Price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec])/(1+Initial delivered fuel PCCR[Rnonelec]*Fraction of internal cost that is capital[FuelPath])

$/GJ

Reference cost without fuel [EnergyPath]

Brings the reference cost without fuel costs for delivered fuels fuels and electricity generation into one variable. $/GJ

[ElecPath] Reference cost without fuel for elec[ElecPath][FuelPath] "Ref O&M and capital cost for delivered fuels"[Rnonelec]

Reference capital cost[EnergyPath] Reference cost without fuel[EnergyPath]*Fraction of internal cost that is capital[EnergyPath] $/GJ

"Reference O&M cost"[EnergyPath]

Reference cost without fuel[EnergyPath]*(1-Fraction of internal cost that is capital[EnergyPath]) $/GJ


4.2.1 Tech Effect, Dispatchability, and Overheating Effects on Cost

Figure 4.28 Tech Effect on Cost

Energy sourceexperience

Learning byexperience exponent

<Learning byexperience progress

ratio>

Lower limit to learningeffect on cost

Energy sourceR&D

R&D learningeffect on cost

R&D funding

<Percent for R&D inenergy source>

Init energy sourceR&D

<100 percent>

<GJ per EJ>

Experience effecton cost

Learning effect oncost of oil

Learning effect onextraction capacity cost

<Breakthrough extractioncommercialization time>

<Breakthroughextraction cost

reduction>

<Lower limit tolearning effect on cost>

<R&D BreakthroughEffect on Cost> Apply breakthrough

to extraction

Extractionbreakthrough timing <Breakthrough delay

interpretation>

<R&D BreakthroughEffect on Cost>

<Breakthroughextraction success year>

Learning effect onextraction cost

<Experience effecton cost><Production for

elec><Production offuels>

<Normal utilizationfor fuel>

<Normal utilizationfor elec> <Initial supply

capacity>

Initial years ofcumulative production

Learning byexperience rate

<100 percent>

<Billion dollars>

Initial percent forR&D

<Absoluterevenue>


<Initial elec price>

Learning by R&Dexponent

Learning by R&Dprogress ratio Learning by

R&D rate

Learning effecton cost

Initial CCS and newexperience

Init energy sourceexperience


Figure 4.29 Dispatchability and Overheating Effects on Cost

Overheating effecton cost

Overheatingresponse shape

Cost effect ofdispatchability<Elec carrier energy

supply capacity>

Non-dispatchableelec capacityElec source is

dispatchable

Backup costrealization lookup

Max backup cost

Overheating effecton cost of oil

<Elec Energy supplycapacity> <Ratio of target elec

capacity completion tocurrent capability>

<Ratio of target fuel capacitycompletion to current

capability>

<Max overheatingeffect>


Table 4-39 Parametric Inputs to Drivers of Cost


Lower limit to learning effect on cost[EnergyPath]

Lower bound to relative cost as a function of technical improvement. Higher for more mature technologies. 0-0.5 0.2

Dmnl

Initial CCS and new experience[CCS and New]

Estimated initial energy source experience from sources with reported initial capacity of 0.

EJ/year

[CCS Coal] 5[CCS and New] :EXCEPT: [CCS Coal] 1

Learning by experience progress ratio [EnergyPath]

The unit cost of output from this source, after doubling the cumulative installed capacity, relative to the initial cost. This ratio is used to derive the learning curve, which measures the cost reduction as the market share of new technology increases. Think of manufacturing plants increasing their production efficiency, capitalizing on economies of scale, gaining experience in their staff, and figuring out ways to reduce unit costs. Based on estimate of progress ratio for renewables. McDonald, A., Schrattenholzer, L., 2001. Learning rates for energy technologies,” Energy Policy 29, 255-261. See "learning_v2.xls" for details. Also see PPT with graph for multiple technologies.

Dmnl

Progress ratio delivered coal 0.75-1 0.98Progress ratio delivered oil 0.75-1 0.98

Progress ratio delivered gas 0.6-1 0.98



Parameter Definition Range Default Values UnitsProgress ratio delivered bio 0.6-0.9 0.85

Progress ratio electric coal and coal CCS 0.75-1 0.99Progress ratio electric oil and oil CCS 0.75-1 0.99

Progress ratio electric gas and gas CCS 0.6-1 0.9Progress ratio electric bio and bio CCS 0.6-0.9 0.85

Progress ratio nuclear 0.5-1 0.95Progress ratio hydro 0-1 0.8

Progress ratio renewables 0.6-0.9 0.8Progress ratio new tech 0.6-0.9 0.8

"Learning by R&D progress ratio"[EnergyPath]

The unit cost of output from this source, after doubling the cumulative R&D dollars invested, relative to the initial cost

0.98 Dmnl

Breakthrough delay interpretation

Interpretation of breakthrough commercialization delay:1 = param represents average time to commercialization (1 time constant);2 = param represents time to 95% commercialization (2 time constants)

1-2 2 Dmnl

"Initial percent for R&D" Initial fraction of the revenue for each source devoted to R&D. 0-10 1 Percent

"Percent for R&D in energy source"[EnergyPath]

Fraction of the revenue for each source devoted to R&D. 1% R&D spend as a percentage of sales for the chemicals and energy industry (http://www.industryweek.com/research-amp-development/rd-spending-numbers)

0-10 1

Percent

http://www.industryweek.com/research-amp-development/rd-spending-numbers






Elec source is dispatchable[ElecPath]

The ability to turn the electric energy paths on and off with demand:0 = not dispatchable;1 = dispatchable 0-1

Dmnl

[ElecPath] :EXCEPT: [Renew] 1[Renew] 0

Backup cost realization lookup

Fraction of supply/backup cost for non-dispatchable sources that is needed, given market share

LOOKUP([(0,0)-(1,1)], (0,0), (0.1,0.01), (0.2,0.1), (0.3,0.4), (0.5,0.8), (0.75,0.95), (1,1))

Max backup bost

Storage/backup or other costs of load-following with non-dispatchable sources at high market shares, as a fraction of intrinsic cost of the source. 0-4 0

Dmnl

Overheating response shape

Shape of response to high capacity utilization in construction pipeline:0 = effect is turned off;1 = effect is linear;2 = effect is quadratic

0-2 0.5 Dmnl

Breakthrough for electricity success year ="[Resource]

The year when a breakthrough reduces the potential cost of the given source; the breakthrough must subsequently be commercialized to have an effect in the market. This is when the technology to reduce the cost of an energy source emerges from R&D and

2017-2100

2020 Year



Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitscommercialization and comes on the market.

Breakthrough commercialization time for electricity[Resource]

The number of years it takes for the breakthrough cost reduction to be commercialized, i.e. to go from laboratory to product catalog. The greater this number, the longer is takes to achieve the breakthrough cost reduction and therefore delays the source in gaining market share. Time spent understanding the market, creating business plans, building partnerships with suppliers, customers, and others, piloting, marketing, etc. 1-50

Default is 5 for all but new tech, for which it is 23.

Year

Coal, Oil, Gas, Bio, Nuclear, Hydro, Renew 5[Resource with CCS] 10

[RNew] 12

Breakthrough cost reduction for electricity[Resource]

The fraction to which the cost of a technology steps down from the cost as determined from the learning and R&D curves at the start of the simulation. 0-0.99 0

Dmnl

Breakthrough for delivered fuels success year[Rnonelec]

The year when a breakthrough reduces the potential cost of the given source; the breakthrough must subsequently be commercialized to have an effect in the market. This is when the technology to reduce the cost of an energy source emerges from R&D and commercialization and comes on the market.

2017-2100 2020

Year




Breakthrough commercialization time for delivered fuels [Rnonelec]

The number of years it takes for the breakthrough cost reduction to be commercialized, i.e. to go from laboratory to product catalog. The greater this number, the longer is takes to achieve the breakthrough cost reduction and therefore delays the source in gaining market share. Time spent understanding the market, creating business plans, building partnerships with suppliers, customers, and others, piloting, marketing, etc. 1-50

Default is 5 for all but new tech, for which it is 23.

Year

Breakthrough cost reduction for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]


Dmnl

Breakthrough extraction success year[Rnonelec]

The year when a breakthrough reduces the potential cost of the given source; the breakthrough must subsequently be commercialized to have an effect in the market. This is when the technology to reduce the cost of an energy source emerges from R&D and commercialization and comes on the market.

2017-2100 2020

Year

Breakthrough commercialization time for extraction[Rnonelec]

The number of years it takes for the breakthrough cost reduction to be commercialized, i.e. to go from laboratory to product catalog. The greater this number, the longer is takes

1-50 Default is 5 for all but new tech, for which it is 23.

Year



Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitsto achieve the breakthrough cost reduction and therefore delays the source in gaining market share. Time spent understanding the market, creating business plans, building partnerships with suppliers, customers, and others, piloting, marketing, etc.

Breakthrough cost reduction for extraction[Rnonelec]


Dmnl

Apply breakthrough to extraction

Applies the same breakthrough as specified for delivered fuels of corresponding fuel. 0-1 1

Dmnl


Table 4-40. Drivers of Cost Calculated Parameters


Learning effect on cost [EnergyPath]

The change in internal cost of each energy path due to experience along the learning curve, R&D, and breakthroughs stepping down the curve.

"R&D Breakthrough Effect on Cost"[EnergyPath]*MAX(Lower limit to learning effect on cost, Experience effect on cost[EnergyPath] * "R&D learning effect on cost"[EnergyPath])

Dmnl

"R&D Breakthrough Effect on Cost" [EnergyPath] Breakthrough cost reduction over time. Dmnl

[FuelPath]

SMOOTH3((1-STEP(Breakthrough cost reduction for delivered fuels[Rnonelec],"R&D success year for delivered fuels"[Rnonelec])), Breakthrough commercialization time for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]/Breakthrough delay interpretation)

[ElecPath]

SMOOTH3((1-STEP(Breakthrough cost reduction for electricity[Resource], "R&D for electricity success year"[Resource])), Breakthrough commercialization time for electricity[Resource]/Breakthrough delay interpretation)

Experience effect on cost [EnergyPath]

The change in internal cost of each energy path due to experience along the learning curve.

ZIDZ(Energy source experience [EnergyPath],Init energy source experience[EnergyPath])^Learning by experience exponent[EnergyPath

Dmnl

Learning by experience rate[EnergyPath] 1-Learning by experience progress ratio[EnergyPath] dmnl

Learning by experience exponent[EnergyPath]

Coefficient of learning curve. dmnl



Parameter Definition UnitsLN(Learning by experience progress ratio[EnergyPath])/LN(2)

Energy source experience[EnergyPath] The total cumulative production for each energy path. EJ

Energy source experience[ElecPath] INTEG(Production for elec[Resource], Init energy source experience[ElecPath])

Energy source experience[FuelPath]

INTEG(Production of fuels[Rnonelec], Init energy source experience[FuelPath])

Init energy source experience[EnergyPath]

The cumulative production for each energy path at the start of the simulation.

[FuelPath]Initial supply capacity[FuelPath]*Normal utilization for

fuel[Rnonelec] *Initial years of cumulative production[FuelPath]

EJ/Year

[ElecExist] Initial supply capacity[ElecExist]*Normal utilization for elec*Initial years of cumulative production[ElecExist]

[CCS and New] Initial CCS and new experience[CCS and New]"Init energy source

R&D"[EnergyPath] The total R&D for each energy path at the start of the simulation. Billion $

[FuelPath]"Initial percent for R&D"/"100 percent"*Initial price of delivered

fuels[Rnonelec]/Billion dollars*Init energy source experience[FuelPath]*GJ per EJ

[ElecPath] "Initial percent for R&D"/"100 percent"*Initial elec price/Billion dollars*Init energy source experience[ElecPath]*GJ per EJ Billion $

"Energy source R&D"[EnergyPath]

INTEG("R&D funding"[EnergyPath], "Init energy source R&D"[EnergyPath]) Billion $

"R&D learning effect on cost"[EnergyPath]

("Energy source R&D"[EnergyPath]/"Init energy source R&D"[EnergyPath])

^"Learning by R&D exponent"[EnergyPath]Dmnl

"Learning by R&D rate"[EnergyPath] 1-"Learning by R&D progress ratio"[EnergyPath] Dmnl

"Learning by R&D Exponent of learning curve. Dmnl




exponent"[EnergyPath] LN("Learning by R&D progress ratio"[EnergyPath])/LN(2)Overheating effect on cost

[EnergyPath]The increase in cost of each energy path as capacity is overheated

from overloading the capacity utilization. Dmnl

[ElecPath]ACTIVE INITIAL(MIN(Max overheating effect, MAX(1,Ratio of

target elec capacity completion to current capability[ElecPath])^Overheating response shape), 1)

[FuelPath]ACTIVE INITIAL(MIN(Max overheating effect, MAX(1,Ratio of

target fuel capacity completion to current capability[Rnonelec])^Overheating response shape, 1))

Cost effect of dispatchability[Carrier]

The increase in cost for energy paths that are not dispatchable and therefore require backup costs. This is not relevant for nonelectric consumption of delivered fuels as they are all dispatchable.

Dmnl

[FuelPath] 1

[ElecPath]1+(1-Elec source is dispatchable[ElecPath])*Backup cost

realization lookup("Non-dispatchable elec capacity"/Elec carrier energy supply capacity)*Max backup cost

"Non-dispatchable elec capacity"

The total capacity of non-dispatchable electric energy paths.

SUM(Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath!]*(1-Elec source is dispatchable[ElecPath!]))

EJ/year

Extraction experience[Rnonelec]

The total extraction capacity ever constructed for each energy path.

INTEGExtraction capacity completions[Rnonelec], Initial extraction capacity[Rnonelec])

EJ/Year

Learning effect on extraction cost[Rnonelec]

The change in extraction cost of each fuel path due to experience along the learning curve

Lower limit to learning effect on cost+(1-Lower limit to learning

dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitseffect on cost)*(Extraction experience [Rnonelec]/Initial extraction capacity[Rnonelec])^Learning coeff[FuelPath]

Init energy source experience[EnergyPath]

The total capacity ever constructed for each energy path at the start of the simulation.

MAX(Initial supply capacity[EnergyPath]*(1+ZIDZ(1,(Supply lifetime[EnergyPath]*Lifetime growth rate[EnergyPath]))),Threshold experience)

EJ/Year

Extraction breakthrough timing

Breakthrough cost reduction over time. Defaults to use the same breakthrough as for delivered fuels of corresponding fuel.

IF THEN ELSE(Apply breakthrough to extraction, "R&D Breakthrough Effect on Cost"[FuelPath], SMOOTH3((1-STEP(Breakthrough extraction cost reduction[Rnonelec] ,Breakthrough extraction success year[Rnonelec])) ,Breakthrough extraction commercialization time[Rnonelec]/Breakthrough delay interpretation))

Dmnl

Learning effect on extraction capacity cost [Rnonelec]

The change in extraction cost of each fuel due to experience along the learning curve and breakthroughs stepping down the curve.

MAX(Lower limit to learning effect on cost, Learning effect on extraction cost[Rnonelec])*Extraction breakthrough timing[Rnonelec]

Dmnl


4.2.2 Resource Constraints

The Resource Constraints sector addresses the potential limits to available energy resources and the effects those limits may have on supply costs. The resource effect cost is a function of the depletion effect on cost and the supply curve effect on cost.

The depletion effect is dynamic, with cost increasing as cumulative production grows. This captures cost escalation with the depletion of fossil fuels. It is possible to discover unconventional resources, thereby reducing the depletion effect; however, it is assumed that the unconventional resources have a different carbon intensity, adjusted by the user. Biomass is not limited by depletion but rather by the supply constraint, which reflects the limit of production of energy from a source from the saturation of production opportunities. These resource constraints affect the extraction costs of fuels, resulting in a greater market price of extracted fuels. In turn, a greater market price of extracted fuels drives up the market price of delivered fuels for nonelectric use and increases the cost to produce electricity from the thermal paths with and without CCS.

The supply curve constraint also affects the cost to produce the electric only paths, i.e., nuclear, hydro, renewables, and new tech. Supply limitations for these paths affect the O&M and capital costs, capturing, for example, the escalation in cost of wind power that occurs as the cheapest sites are exploited first.

Figure 4.30 illustrates the structure.


Table 4-41 Resource Constraints Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values Units Source

Depletion effect on cost when RCE is 1 [Rnonelec]

Escalation of cost with increasing cumulative production; interpreted as cost relative to initial cum prod at reference point on depletion curve (1 = no effect; 2 = cost doubles; etc.)

1-10 Dmnl

Coal 2Oil 2

Gas 2Bio 1

Ultimate resource remaining[Rnonelec]

How many EJ of energy from this source type remain unexploited at the beginning of the simulation.

EJ

Based on IPCC 2007 and IEA 2012 estimates. See "World Energy Reserves.xls"

Coal

25000-132000 100000

Oil7000-45000 15000

Gas6500-31500 16750

Bio 10-10000

1000000

Figure 4.30 Structure of Resources Sector

CumulativeExtraction

Init Cum Extraction

Potential energyresource demand

<VSERRATLEASTONE>

<VSSUM>

Normal energyinput

<Ultimate resourceremaining>

<Path resourcedefinition>

<Ref Hist growthrate>

Relative resourcedemand

Relative cumulativeextraction

<Referenceresource supply>

Max relativeresource demand

Potential energy resourcedemand by aggregated

resource

Supply curveeffect on cost

Resource effecton cost

Supply coefficient

Depletion effect onextraction capacity

cost

<Depletion effect oncost when RCE is 1>

<Supplysensitivity>

Unconventionalresource found

Ratio unconventionalto total

<Additional reservesdiscovered as factor of

initial remaining>

<Time to startexploration>

<Years to achievediscovery>

Resourceremaining total

Depletion effect oncost of oil

Primary EnergyDemand by aggregated

resource

Primary energydemand by resource

Fuel extraction

Depletioncoefficient

<Energy to meetdemand by path>




00Additional reserves discovered as

factor of initial remaining[Rnonelec] 0

EJ

Time to start exploration[Rnonelec]2017-2100 2017 Year F

Years to achieve discovery[Rnonelec] 1-50 20 Years

Reference resource supply[Resource]

The energy flow (EJ/yr) at which costs for energy from this resource begin to rise based on approaching the limits of the feasible annual flow. .

EJ/year

See "World Energy Reserves.xls"

Reference resource supply coal1-20000 20000

Reference resource supply oil1-20000 20000

Reference resource supply gas1-20000 20000

Reference resource supply bio10-400 100

Reference resource supply nuclear1-20000 20000

Reference resource supply hydro 10-60 40Reference resource supply

renewables10-20000 1000

Reference resource supply new tech10-20000 1000




Supply sensitivity[EnergyPath]

Escalation of cost with increasing capacity; interpreted as cost relative to zero output at reference point on supply curve (1 = no effect; 2 = cost doubles; etc.)

1-10 dmnl

See "World Energy Reserves.xls"

[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: bio, hydro, and renewables 1

Bio 2Hydro 2

Renewables 2

Max relative resource demandPrevents the supply effect curve from crashing with a value that is too large.

30 Dmnl


Table 4-42. Resource Constraints Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsCumulative Extraction[Rnonelec] INTEG(Fuel extraction[Rnonelec], Init Cum Extraction[Rnonelec]) EJFuel extraction[Rnonelec] Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec] EJ/year

Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Resource]

Primary energy demand of each resource,combining the primary energy demand of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts.

VECTOR SELECT(Path resource definition[EnergyPath!,Resource], Energy to meet demand[EnergyPath!]/Efficiency[EnergyPath!], 0, VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

EJ/year

[RThermal without CCS] Primary energy demand by resource[RThermal without CCS]+Primary energy demand by resource[Resource with CCS]

[R elec only] Primary energy demand by resource[R elec only][Resource with CCS] 0

Primary energy demand by resource[Resource]

VECTOR SELECT(Path resource definition[EnergyPath!,Resource], Primary energy by path[EnergyPath!],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

Init Cum Extraction[Rnonelec]

Based on historical growth rates and level observed in 1990.

INITIAL(Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec]/Ref Hist growth rate[Rnonelec])

EJ

Relative cumulative extraction[Rnonelec]

Cumulative extraction relative to resources remaining.

(Cumulative Extraction [Rnonelec]-Init Cum Extraction[Rnonelec])/(Resource remaining total[Rnonelec]-Init Cum

Extraction[Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Resource remaining total[Rnonelec] Ultimate resource remaining[Rnonelec]+Unconventional resource found[Rnonelec] EJ

Unconventional resource found[Rnonelec

ramp( Additional reserves discovered as factor of initial remaining[Rnonelec]*Ultimate resource

EJ



Parameter Definition Unitsremaining[Rnonelec]/Years to achieve discovery[Rnonelec] , Time to start exploration[Rnonelec] , Time to start exploration[Rnonelec]+Years to achieve discovery[Rnonelec])

Ratio unconventional to total[Rnonelec]

Unconventional resource found[Rnonelec]/Resource remaining total[Rnonelec]

Depletion coefficient[Rnonelec]

Escalation of cost with increasing cumulative extraction; interpreted as cost relative to initial cum extraction at reference point on depletion curve (1 = no effect; 2 = cost doubles; etc.)

INITIAL(LN(Depletion effect on cost when RCE is 1[Rnonelec]))

Dmnl

Depletion effect on extraction capacity cost[Rnonelec]

EXP(Relative cumulative extraction[Rnonelec]*Depletion coefficient[Rnonelec]) Dmnl

Normal energy input[EnergyPath]Energy supply

capacity[EnergyPath]/Efficiency[EnergyPath]/(1+Reserve margin[Carrier])

EJ/Year

Potential energy resource demand[Resource]

VECTOR SELECT(Path resource definition[EnergyPath!,Resource], Normal energy input[EnergyPath!],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

EJ/Year

Potential energy resource demand by aggregated resource

Combines the potential energy resource demand of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts. EJ/Year

[RThermal without CCS] Potential energy resource demand[RThermal without CCS]+Potential energy resource demand[Resource with CCS]

[R elec only] Potential energy resource demand[R elec only][Resource with CCS] 0

Relative resource demand[Resource]

Resource flow relative to reference supply. If the reference supply is less than or equal to the initial potential energy demand, the relative resource demand is the ratio of that demand to the reference supply. Otherwise, it increases as the potential demand approaches the reference supply.

Dmnl



Parameter Definition UnitsMAX(0,Potential energy resource demand by aggregated

resource[Resource]-INIT(Potential energy resource demand by aggregated resource[Resource]))/ (Reference resource supply[Resource]-INIT(Potential energy resource demand by aggregated resource[Resource]))

Supply curve effect on cost[EnergyPath]

Prevents the supply curve effect from being less than 1 and from growing too large that the simulation crashes.

MAX(1, EXP(MIN(Max relative resource demand, Relative resource demand[Resource]*Supply coefficient[Resource])))

Dmnl

Supply coefficient[EnergyPath] INITIAL(LN(Supply sensitivity[EnergyPath])) DmnlResource effect on cost[Resource] Dmnl

[Rnonelec] Depletion effect on extraction capacity cost[Rnonelec]*Supply curve effect on cost[Rnonelec]

[Resource] :EXCEPT: [Rnonelec] Supply curve effect on cost[Resource]


Table 4-43. Energy Cost Calculated Parameters

Parameter Defiefnition UnitsAnnualized capital costs

[EnergyPath] The marginal unit capital costs of each energy path. $/GJ

[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec bio]

Reference capital cost[EnergyPath]*Learning effect on cost[EnergyPath]*Overheating effect on cost[EnergyPath]*Cost effect of dispatchability[EnergyPath]*Supply curve effect on cost[Resource]

[Elec bio]Reference capital cost[Elec bio]*Learning effect on cost[Elec

bio]*Overheating effect on cost[Elec bio]*Cost effect of dispatchability[Elec bio]

O&M unit costs[EnergyPath] The marginal unit O&M costs of each energy path. $/GJ

[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec bio]

"Reference O&M cost"[EnergyPath]*Tech effect on cost[EnergyPath]

*Cost effect of dispatchability[EnergyPath]*Supply curve effect on cost[Resource]

[Elec bio] "Reference O&M cost"[Elec bio]*Tech effect on cost[Elec bio]*Cost effect of dispatchability[Elec bio]

Source internal cost[ElecPath]

The internal cost of each energy path for electric capacity investment decisions.

Smoothed Variable cost of elec supply[ElecPath]+Annualized capital costs[ElecPath]

$/GJ

Adjusted source cost[ElecPath]

Source internal cost adjusted for emissions costs and subsidies.

Source internal cost[ElecPath]+Adjustment to energy costs[ElecPath]

$/GJ

Smoothed Variable cost of elec supply[ElecPath]

Variable costs (O&M plus fuel) , smoothed over the trend time to assess for investment.

SMOOTH(Instant Variable cost of elec supply[ElecPath], Variable

$/GJ



Parameter Defiefnition Unitscost trend time)

Contracted fuel costs for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

Cost of extracted fuel to producers of delivered fuels smoothed over fuel contract time.

SMOOTH(Price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec], Years of fuel contract)

$/GJ

Contracted fuel costs for elec[ElecPath]

Cost of delivered fuel for electric producers smoothed over fuel contract time.

SMOOTH(Delivered fuel costs for elec[ElecPath], Years of fuel contract)e

$/GJ

Instant Variable cost of fuel supply[Rnonelec]

Variable costs (O&M plus fuel), used to calculate the source profit margin.

"O&M unit costs"[FuelPath]+Contracted fuel costs for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Instant Variable cost of elec supply[ElecPath]

Variable costs (O&M plus fuel), used to calculate the source profit margin.

"O&M unit costs"[ElecPath]+Contracted fuel costs for elec[ElecPath]

$/GJ

Delivered fuel price by path without carbon tax[ElecPath]

Maps the market price to consumers of each delivered fuel to each corresponding elec thermal path, accounting for the ratio of fuel price for elec production to the average price of delivered fuel. The fuel price for CCS paths is the same as for the corresponding elec thermal path. Subtracts the carbon tax so that the carbon tax for the appropriate source may be applied.

$/GJ

[Elec thernal] Market price of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec]-Carbon tax per GJ[Rnonelec]

[Elec thermal plus CCS] Delivered fuel price by path without carbon tax[Elec thermal]



Parameter Defiefnition Units[ElecPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec

thermal plus CCS]

Delivered fuel price by path[ElecPath]

Maps the market price to consumers of each delivered fuel to each corresponding elec thermal path, accounting for the ratio of fuel price for elec production to the average price of delivered fuel (calculated from EIA 2013 to be 0.9, 1, 0.7, and 1 for coal , oil, gas, bio, respectively). The fuel price for CCS paths is the same as for the corresponding elec thermal path.

$/GJ

[Elec thernal] Delivered fuel price by path without carbon tax[Elec thermal]*Ratio of fuel price for elec to avg[Rnonelec]

[Elec thermal plus CCS] Delivered fuel price by path[Elec thermal][ElecPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec

thermal plus CCS] 0

Delivered fuel price for elec[ElecPath]

Fuel price for each electric path, including the costs of a carbon tax, which are direct for fossil fuels and indirect for non fossil fuels.

Delivered fuel price by path[ElecPath]+Carbon tax per GJ[Resource]

$/GJ

Delivered fuel costs for elec [ElecPath]

Costs of delivered fuels for electric paths.

Delivered fuel price for elec[ElecPath]/Avg efficiency of elec supply[ElecPath]

$/GJ


4.3 Embodied Supply Costs and Efficiencies

The embodied costs of supply are modeled in the Embodied Supply Costs sector. These costs factor into the utilization of energy capacity in the Market Clearing and Utilization sector. Embodied costs represent the actual physically-imposed costs, which are locked in at the time of capacity investment, i.e., new capacity development. Variable costs include operation and maintenance (O&M) and fuel costs. The fuel costs for delivered fuels are the extracted fuel costs. The fuel cost for each electric source requiring fuel is the market price of fuel divided by the embodied thermal efficiency of the source; fuel prices for the primary electric paths are 0. Unit profit, which is the market price less the variable costs, may be adjusted by a tax/subsidy and/or carbon tax to the producers of delivered fuels. As in the Supply sector, the construction pipeline is explicit but without vintaging of capital as there is in the demand side; costs are assumed to be well-mixed. All inputs to this sub-model are determined in other sub-models.


Figure 4.31 Structure of Electric Supply Embodied Fixed Costs

Embodied fixed cost ofelec existing capacity

Embodied fixed costof elec capacity in

construction Embodied fixed cost ofelec capacity completing

Embodied fixed cost ofelec capacity retiring

Embodied fixed cost ofelec capacity starting

<Elec Capacityconstruction starting>

Avg fixed cost of elecin construction Avg embodied fixed

cost of elec capacity

Initial fixed cost of elecsupply in existing capacity

Initial fixed cost of eleccapacity in construction

<Historic completion time>

Embodied fixed costof elec capacity in

developmentEmbodied fixed cost ofelec capacity developing

Avg fixed cost of elecin development

<Elec Capacity underdevelopment>

Initial fixed cost of eleccapacity in development

<Historiccompletion time>

<Elec Developmentfraction>

<Annualizedcapital costs>




<Historic costimprovement rate>

<Historic costimprovement rate><Historic cost

improvement rate><Actual retirement

rate>

<Elec Completingcapacity>



<Reference capitalcost>

COFLOW OF COSTSFOR ELECTRICITY

SUPPLY


<Elec Capacity underconstruction> <Elec Energy supply

capacity>

<Elec Capacitydevelopment starting>

<Elec Capacity underconstruction>

<Elec Energy supplycapacity>

<Elec Retiringcapacity>


Figure 4.32 Structure of Delivered fuels Supply Embodied Fixed Costs

Embodied fixed cost offuel existing capacity

Embodied fixed costof fuel capacity in

construction Embodied fixed cost offuel capacity completing

Embodied fixed cost offuel capacity retiring

Embodied fixed cost offuel capacity starting

Avg fixed cost of fuelin construction Avg embodied fixed

cost of fuel capacity

Initial fixed cost ofdelivered fuel existing

capacity

Initial fixed cost ofdelivered fuel capacity

in construction

Embodied fixed costof fuel capacity in

developmentEmbodied fixed cost offuel capacity developing

Avg fixed cost of fuelin development

Initial fixed cost ofdelivered fuel capacity

in development


<Actual retirementrate>



<Fuel Capacitydevelopment starting>

<Annualized capitalcosts of fuel>

<Fuel Capacity underdevelopment>

<Fuel Developmentfraction>


<Fuel capacityconstruction starting>


<Fuel Capacity underconstruction> <Annualized capital

costs of fuel>


<Fuel Capacity underconstruction>

<Fuel Completingcapacity>

<Fuel Retiringcapacity>






Table 4-44.Electricity Supply Embodied Fixed Costs Calculated Parameters


Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity in development [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs, i.e., the actual physically-imposed costs, of capacity under development of each electric energy path. These are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity developing[ElecPath]-Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity starting[ElecPath], Initial fixed cost of elec capacity in development[ElecPath])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity in construction [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs, i.e., the actual physically-imposed costs, of capacity under construction of each electric energy path. These are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity starting[ElecPath]-Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity completing[ElecPath], Initial fixed cost of elec capacity in construction[ElecPath])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Embodied fixed cost of elec existing capacity [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs, i.e., the actual physically-imposed costs, of existing capacity of each electric energy path. These are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity completing[ElecPath]-Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity retiring[ElecPath], Initial fixed cost of elec supply in existing capacity[ElecPath])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Initial fixed cost of elec capacity in development [ElecPath]

Initial fixed cost of electric energy supply in under development.

INITIAL(Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath]*Annualized capital costs[ElecPath]*EXP(Historic cost improvement rate[ElecPath

]*Historic completion time[ElecPath]*(1-Elec Development

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)



Parameter Definition Unitsfraction[ElecPath])))

Initial fixed cost of elec capacity in construction [ElecPath]

Initial fixed cost of electric energy supply in under construction.

INITIAL(Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath]*Annualized capital costs[ElecPath]*EXP(Historic cost improvement rate[ElecPath]*Historic completion time[ElecPath]))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Initial fixed cost of elec supply in existing capacity [ElecPath]

Initial fixed cost of existing electric energy supply capacity.

INITIAL(Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath]*Annualized capital costs[ElecPath]*EXP(Historic cost improvement rate[ElecPath]*(Historic completion time[ElecPath]+1/Actual retirement rate[ElecPath])))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity developing [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity starting development each year of each electric energy path, locked in at that time.

Annualized capital costs[ElecPath]*Elec Capacity development starting[ElecPath]

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)/Year

Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity starting [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity starting construction each year of each electric energy path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg fixed cost of elec in development[ElecPath]*Elec Capacity construction starting[ElecPath]


Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity completing [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity completed each year of each electric energy path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg fixed cost of elec in construction[ElecPath]*Elec Completing capacity[ElecPath]


Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity retiring [ElecPath]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity being retired each year of each electric energy path, locked in at the time of development.





Avg embodied fixed cost of elec capacity[ElecPath]*Elec Retiring capacity[ElecPath]

Avg fixed cost in development of elec[ElecPath]

Embodied unit fixed costs of capacity of each electric path under developement, locked in at that time.

ZIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity in development[ElecPath]

,Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath])

$/GJ

Avg fixed cost of elec in construction [ElecPath]

Embodied unit fixed costs of capacity of each electric path under construction, locked in at the time of devleopment.

ZIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of elec capacity in construction[ElecPath]

,Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath])

$/GJ

Avg embodied fixed cost of elec capacity [ElecPath]

Embodied unit fixed costs of completed capacity of each electric energy path, locked in at the time of development.

ACTIVE INITIAL(XIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of elec existing capacity[ElecPath], Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath],Annualized capital costs[ElecPath]), Reference capital cost[ElecPath])

$/GJ


Table 4-45. Delivered Fuel Capacity Embodied Fixed Costs Calculated Parameters


Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity in development [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs, i.e., the actual physically-imposed costs, of capacity under development of each delivered fuel. These are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity developing[Rnonelec]-Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity starting[Rnonelec], Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel capacity in development[Rnonelec])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity in construction [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs, i.e., the actual physically-imposed costs, of capacity under construction of each delivered fuel. These are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity starting[Rnonelec]-Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity completing[Rnonelec], Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel capacity in construction[Rnonelec])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Embodied fixed cost of fuel existing capacity [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs, i.e., the actual physically-imposed costs, of existing capacity of each delivered fuel. These are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity completing[Rnonelec]-Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity retiring[Rnonelec], Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel existing capacity[Rnonelec])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel capacity in development [Rnonelec]

Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel supply in under development.

INITIAL(Fuel Capacity under development [Rnonelec]*Annualized capital costs of fuel[Rnonelec]*EXP(Historic cost improvement

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)



Parameter Definition Unitsrate[FuelPath]*Historic completion time[FuelPath]*(1-Fuel Development fraction [Rnonelec])))

Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel capacity in construction [Rnonelec]

Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel supply in under construction.

INITIAL(Fuel Capacity under construction [Rnonelec]*Annualized capital costs of fuel[Rnonelec]*EXP(Historic cost improvement rate[FuelPath]*Historic completion time[FuelPath]))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Initial fixed cost of delivered fuel existing capacity [Rnonelec]

Initial fixed cost of existing delivered fuel supply capacity.

INITIAL(Fuel supply capacity [Rnonelec]*Annualized capital costs of fuel[Rnonelec]

*EXP(Historic cost improvement rate[FuelPath]*(Historic completion time[FuelPath]+1/Actual retirement rate[FuelPath])))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity developing [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity starting development each year of each delivered fuel, locked in at that time.

Annualized capital costs of fuel[Rnonelec]*Fuel Capacity development starting [Rnonelec]


Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity starting [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity starting construction each year of each delivered fuel, locked in at the time of development.

Avg fixed cost of fuel in development[Rnonelec]*Fuel capacity construction starting [Rnonelec]


Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity completing [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity completed each year of each delivered fuel, locked in at the time of development.

Avg fixed cost of fuel in construction[Rnonelec]*Fuel Completing capacity [Rnonelec]





Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity retiring [Rnonelec]

Embodied fixed costs of capacity being retired each year of each delivered fuel, locked in at the time of development.

Avg embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity[Rnonelec]*Fuel Retiring capacity [Rnonelec]


Avg fixed cost of fuel in development [Rnonelec]

Embodied unit fixed costs of capacity of each delivered fuel under developement, locked in at that time.

ZIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity in development[Rnonelec], Fuel Capacity under development [Rnonelec])

$/GJ

Avg fixed cost of fuel in construction [Rnonelec]

Embodied unit fixed costs of capacity of each delivered fuel under construction, locked in at the time of development.

ZIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity in construction[Rnonelec], Fuel Capacity under construction [Rnonelec])

$/GJ

Avg embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity [Rnonelec]

Embodied unit fixed costs of completed capacity of each delivered fuel, locked in at the time of development.

ACTIVE INITIAL(XIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of fuel existing capacity[Rnonelec], Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec],Annualized capital costs of fuel[Rnonelec]), Reference capital cost[FuelPath])

$/GJ


Figure 4.33 Structure of Efficiency

Efficiencyimprovement in time

Efficiency improvementstart year

Time to reach fullefficiency improvement

<100 percent>

ConversionEfficiency

Losses of fuel

<100 percent>

CCS reduction inefficiency

Efficiency losspercent<100 percent>

<CCS reduction inefficiency initial>

Efficiency withoutbreakthroughimprovement

Fraction ofbreakthrough on

efficiency

Learning and R&D toreduce CCS loss of

efficiency

Fraction of breakthroughon CCS reduction in

efficiency

Use breakthrough on costfor efficiency improvement

Learning and R&D onefficiency


Efficiency

<WEO fractionallosses>

WEO elecefficiency<One year>

<Time>


<Efficiencyimprovement>


Figure 4.34 Structure of Electric Supply Embodied Efficiency

Actual elec energy inexisting capacity

Actual elec energy inconstruction

Actual elec energycompleting

Actual elec energyretiring

Actual elec energystarting

Avg efficiency in elecconstruction Avg efficiency of

elec supply

Initial actual elec energyin existing capacity

Initial actual elecenergy in construction

<Efficiency>

Historic efficiencyimprovement rate

Actual elec energy indevelopment

Actual elec energydeveloping

Initial actual elecenergy in development



<Efficiency>

Avg efficiency in elecdevelopment

<Historic efficiencyimprovement rate>



<Elec Capacitydevelopment starting>


<Elec Capacityconstruction starting>




<Elec Retiringcapacity>




<Efficiency>

Figure 4.35 Structure of Delivered Fuel Supply Embodied Efficiency

Actual fuel existingcapacity

Actual fuel capacity inconstruction

Actual fuel capacitycompleting

Actual fuelcapacity retiring

Actual fuel capacitystarting

Avg efficiency in fuelconstruction Avg efficiency of

fuel capacity

Initial actual fuelcapacity

Initial actual fuelcapacity in construction

Actual fuel capacity indevelopment

Actual fuel capacitydeveloping

Initial actual fuelcapacity in development


Avg efficiency in fueldevelopment




<Fuel Capacitydevelopment starting>



<Fuel Retiringcapacity>


<Fuel Developmentfraction> <Fuel supply

capacity>

<Fuel capacityconstruction starting>



<Efficiency>

<Efficiency>

<Efficiency>

Avg efficiency of fuelsupply for all paths




Table 4-46 Efficiency Parameter Inputs


Conversion Efficiency[FuelPath]

1 by definition for all pathways except thermal generation of electricity. Calculated for electric paths according to WEO2012

Error: Reference source notfound. 1

dmnl

Carbon capture effectiveness[CCS Paths]

Reduction in carbon emissions factor from the nonCCS counterpart.

Percent

Coal, Oil, Gas 90

Bio

Assumes approximately 50% of Bio emissions are due to upstream FF use and are therefore not subject to being captured. 50

Fraction of breakthrough on CCS reduction in efficiency

Fraction of breakthrough effect that also applies to bring the efficiency of each CCS path closer to that of its nonCCS counterpart. 0-1 1

dmnl

Fraction of breakthrough on efficiency

Fraction of breakthrough effect that also applies to improve efficiency. 0-1 0

Dmnl

Use breakthrough on cost for efficiency improvement

Applies the tech breakthrough on cost to

0-1 0 Dmnl


improvements in efficiency, reducing the inefficiency by the fractional reduction in cost.

Efficiency improvement start year[EnergyPath]

The year of efficiency improvement starts.

2017-2100 2020 Year

Time to reach full efficiency improvement[EnergyPath]

The time it takes for the specified efficiency improvement to reach its full value. 1-20 5

Years

Efficiency improvement[EnergyPath]

The percent of efficiency improvement of an energy source. A value of 60% reduces the inefficiency at the time of improvement by 60%. 0-100 0

Percent

Historic efficiency improvement rate[EnerygPath]

The historic rate of efficiency improvement, used to calculate initial efficiencies for calculations of embodied efficiencies. 0

1/year


Table 4-47. Efficiency Calculated Parameters


Conversion Efficiency[ElecPath]Thermal conversion of electricity. Efficiencies are low for some

sources - e.g. gas - compared to efficiency of new, efficient capital (combined cycle).

Dmnl

[Elec thermal] WEO elec efficiency[Rnonelec]

[CCS Paths] Conversion Efficiency[Elec thermal]*(1-CCS reduction in efficiency[CCS Paths]/"100 percent")

Nuclear 0.33Hydro, Renewables, New 1

CCS reduction in efficiency[CCS Paths]

Loss in efficiency for a CCS path compared to its nonCCS counterpart.

CCS reduction in efficiency initial*"Learning and R&D to reduce CCS loss of efficiency"[CCS Paths]

Dmnl

Breakthrough to reduce CCS loss of efficiency [CCS Paths]

Applies breakthrough effect to bring the efficiency of each CCS path closer to that of its nonCCS counterpart.

"R&D Breakthrough Effect on Cost"[CCS Paths]*Fraction of breakthrough on CCS reduction in efficiency+1-Fraction of breakthrough on CCS reduction in efficiency

Dmnl

"Learning and R&D on efficiency"[EnergyPath]

1-(1-"R&D Breakthrough Effect on Cost"[EnergyPath])*Fraction of breakthrough on efficiency Dmnl

Losses of fuel[EnergyPath] Calibrated to WEO2012. Dmnl[FuelPath] WEO fractional losses[Rnonelec]

[Elec Thermal] Losses of fuel[FuelPath][CCS Paths] Losses of fuel[Elec thermal]

[Only elec paths] 0Efficiency without breakthrough

improvement[EnergyPath]

[ElecPath] Conversion Efficiency[ElecPath]*"Learning and R&D on efficiency"[ElecPath]


Table 4-47. Efficiency Calculated Parameters


[FuelPath] 1-Losses of fuel[FuelPath]*"Learning and R&D on efficiency"[FuelPath]

Efficiency improvement in time[EnergyPath]

IF THEN ELSE(Use breakthrough on cost, 1- Breakthrough timing[EnergyPath], ramp(Efficiency improvement[EnergyPath]/ Time to reach full efficiency improvement, Efficiency improvement start year , Efficiency improvement start year+Time to reach full efficiency improvement)/"100 percent")

dmnl

Efficiency[EnergyPath]1-(1-Efficiency without breakthrough

improvement[EnergyPath])*(1-Efficiency improvement in time[EnergyPath])

Dmnl

Efficiency loss percent[EnergyPath] (1-Efficiency[EnergyPath])*"100 percent" Percent


Table 4-48.Electricity Capacity Embodied Efficiency Calculated Parameters


Actual elec energy in development [ElecPath]

Actual elec energy in development, reduced from total according to efficiency in development, where the efficiencies are locked in at that time.

INTEG(Actual elec energy developing[ElecPath]-Actual elec energy starting[ElecPath], Initial actual elec energy in development[ElecPath])

EJ/year

Actual elec energy in construction [ElecPath]

Actual elec energy in construction, reduced from total according to efficiency in construction, where the efficiencies are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Actual elec energy starting[ElecPath]-Actual elec energy completing[ElecPath], Initial actual elec energy in construction[ElecPath])

EJ/year

Actual elec energy in existing capacity [ElecPath]

Actual elec energy in existing capacity, reduced from total according to efficiency in existing capacity, where the efficiencies are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Actual elec energy completing[ElecPath]-Actual elec energy retiring[ElecPath], Initial actual elec energy in existing capacity[ElecPath])

EJ/year

Initial actual elec energy in development [ElecPath]

Initial actual elec energy in development, reduced from total according to efficiency in development.

INITIAL(Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath]*Efficiency[ElecPath]* EXP(-Historic efficiency improvement rate[ElecPath]*Historic completion time[ElecPath]*(1-Elec Development fraction[ElecPath])))

EJ/year

Initial actual elec energy in construction [ElecPath]

Initial actual elec energy in construction, reduced from total according to efficiency in construction.

EJ/year




INITIAL(Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath]*Efficiency[ElecPath]* EXP(-Historic efficiency improvement rate[ElecPath]*Historic completion time[ElecPath]))

Initial actual elec energy in existing capacity [ElecPath]

Initial actual elec energy in existing capacity, reduced from total according to efficiency of existing capacity.

INITIAL(Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath]*Efficiency[ElecPath]* EXP(-Historic efficiency improvement rate[ElecPath]*(Historic completion time [ElecPath]+1/Actual retirement rate[ElecPath])))

EJ/year

Actual elec energy developing [ElecPath]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, starting development each year of each elec energy path, locked in at that time.

Efficiency[ElecPath]*Elec Capacity development starting[ElecPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Actual elec energy starting [ElecPath]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, starting construction each year of each elec energy path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg efficiency in elec development[ElecPath]* Elec Capacity construction starting[ElecPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Actual elec energy completing [ElecPath]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, completed each year of each elec energy path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg efficiency in elec construction[ElecPath]*Elec Completing capacity[ElecPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year




Actual elec energy retiring [ElecPath]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, retiring each year of each elec energy path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg efficiency of elec supply[ElecPath]* Elec Retiring capacity[ElecPath]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Avg efficiency in elec development [ElecPath]

Embodied efficiency of capacity under development of each electric energy path, locked in at that time.

ZIDZ(Actual elec energy in development[ElecPath], Elec Capacity under development[ElecPath])

Dmnl

Avg fixed cost in construction of elec[ElecPath]

Embodied efficiency of capacity under construction of each electric energy path, locked in at the time of development.

MIN(1, ZIDZ(Actual elec energy in construction[ElecPath], Elec Capacity under construction[ElecPath]))

Dmnl

Avg efficiency of elec supply [ElecPath]

Embodied efficiency of existing capacity of each electric energy path, locked in at the time of development.

ACTIVE INITIAL(MIN(1, XIDZ(Actual elec energy in existing capacity[ElecPath], Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath], Efficiency[ElecPath])), Efficiency[ElecPath])

Dmnl




Actual fuel capacity in development [Rnonelec]

Actual fuel capacity in development, reduced from total according to efficiency in development, where the efficiencies are locked in at that time.

INTEG(Actual fuel capacity developing[Rnonelec]-Actual fuel capacity starting[Rnonelec], Initial actual fuel capacity in development[Rnonelec])

EJ/year

Actual fuel capacity in construction [Rnonelec]

Actual fuel capacity in construction, reduced from total according to efficiency in construction, where the efficiencies are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Actual fuel capacity starting[Rnonelec]-Actual fuel capacity completing[Rnonelec], Initial actual fuel capacity in construction[Rnonelec])

EJ/year

Actual fuel existing capacity [Rnonelec]

Actual existing fuel capacity, reduced from total according to efficiency in existing capacity, where the efficiencies are locked in at the time of development.

INTEG(Actual fuel capacity completing[Rnonelec]-Actual fuel capacity retiring[Rnonelec], Initial actual fuel capacity[Rnonelec])

EJ/year

Initial actual fuel capacity in development [Rnonelec]

Initial actual fuel capacity in development, reduced from total according to efficiency in development.

INITIAL(Fuel Capacity under development[Rnonelec]*Efficiency [FuelPath]*EXP(-Historic efficiency improvement rate [FuelPath]*Historic completion time[FuelPath]*(1-Fuel Development fraction[Rnonelec])))

EJ/year

Initial actual fuel capacity in Initial actual fuel capacity in construction, reduced from total EJ/year




construction [Rnonelec]

according to efficiency in construction.

INITIAL(Fuel Capacity under construction[Rnonelec]*Efficiency [FuelPath]*EXP(-Historic efficiency improvement rate [FuelPath]*Historic completion time[FuelPath]))

Initial actual fuel capacity [Rnonelec]

Initial actual existing fuel capacity, reduced from total according to efficiency of existing capacity.

INITIAL(Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]*Efficiency [FuelPath]*EXP(-Historic efficiency improvement rate [FuelPath]*(Historic completion time [FuelPath]+1/Actual retirement rate[FuelPath])))

EJ/year

Actual fuel capacity developing [Rnonelec]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, starting development each year of each fuel path, locked in at that time.

Efficiency [FuelPath]*Fuel Capacity development starting[Rnonelec]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Actual fuel capacity starting [Rnonelec]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, starting construction each year of each fuel path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg efficiency in fuel development[Rnonelec]*Fuel capacity construction starting[Rnonelec]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Actual fuel capacity completing [Rnonelec]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, completed each year of each fuel path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg efficiency in fuel construction[Rnonelec]*Fuel Completing

(EJ/Year)/Year



Parameter Definition Unitscapacity[Rnonelec]

Actual fuel capacity retiring [Rnonelec]

Actual capacity, reduced from total according to average efficiency, retiring each year of each fuel path, locked in at the time of development.

Avg efficiency of fuel capacity[Rnonelec]* Fuel Retiring capacity[Rnonelec]

(EJ/Year)/Year

Avg fixed cost in development of fuel[Rnonelec]

Embodied efficiency of capacity under development of each fuel path, locked in at that time.

ZIDZ(Embodied fixed cost of fuel supply development[Rnonelec],Fuel Capacity under development [Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Avg efficiency in fuel construction [Rnonelec]

Embodied efficiency of capacity under construction of each fuel path, locked in at the time of development.

MIN(1, ZIDZ(Actual fuel capacity in construction[Rnonelec], Fuel Capacity under construction[Rnonelec]))

Dmnl

Avg efficiency of fuel capacity [Rnonelec]

Embodied efficiency of existing capacity of each fuel path, locked in at the time of development.

ACTIVE INITIAL(MIN(1, XIDZ(Actual fuel existing capacity[Rnonelec], Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec],Efficiency [FuelPath])), Efficiency [FuelPath])

Dmnl

Avg efficiency of fuel supply for all paths[EnergyPath] Dmnl

[FuelPath] Avg efficiency of fuel capacity[Rnonelec][Elec Thermal] Avg efficiency of fuel capacity[Rnonelec]



Parameter Definition Units[CCS Paths] Avg efficiency of fuel supply for all paths[Elec thermal]

[Only elec paths] 1


4.4 Electric Supply Choice

As in the Carrier and Fuel Choice sectors, the fraction of new investment allocated to each of the electric energy sources is a function of its attractiveness relative to that of the other sources. Attractiveness synthesizes cost effect, a network effect (normally inactive), and the effect of a performance standard, as shown in Figure 4.36.

4.4.1 Cost Effect Attractiveness

The cost, adjusted by any source subsidies/taxes drives the cost attractiveness of each electric path relative to the other electric paths. The cost attractiveness for each nonCCS/CCS couple is nested within the cost attractiveness of all the electric paths.


Figure 4.36 Electric Energy Source Attractivenesse

Source share costsensitivity

Total elec sourceattractiveness

Developed

Cost effectattractiveness

<Source internalcost>

Fraction invested in elecenergy agg source

Developed

Adjusted sourcecost

<Adjustment toenergy costs>

<Ref avg elec cost>

Ratio of cost toavg cost

Cost effectattractiveness for CCS

Developed CCS source sharecost sensitivity

Total sourceattractiveness for CCS

Developed

Fraction invested innonCCS vs CCS

Developed

Weighted avg adjustedsource cost with CCS

Ratio of cost to avgcost for CCS

Actual Fraction investedin nonCCS vs CCS

Developed

<Non cost policy forCCS decisions

Developed>

Fraction invested inelec energy source

Developed

Actual ElecFraction invested


Developing

Fraction invested in elecenergy agg source

Developing


Developing


Developing


Developing


Developing

Elec energy sourceattractiveness

Developed

<Non cost policyDeveloped>

<Non cost policyDeveloping>

Percent of globalenergy from DevelopingPercent of global

energy from Developed

<100 percent>


<Percent of globalenergy fromDeveloping>

<One year>

<Time>

Cost effectattractiveness for

CCS



<Non cost policy forCCS decisions

Developing>



Fraction invested inelec energy agg

source

<Effect ofperformancestandard><Network effect

attractiveness>


Developing



<Actual Fraction investedin nonCCS vs CCS

Developed>

<Percent with non costpolicy in timeDeveloping>


Developing<100 percent>

<Actual Fraction investedin nonCCS vs CCS

Developing>

Actual Fractioninvested in nonCCS

vs CCS

<Fraction invested innonCCS vs CCS>

Actual Elec Fractioninvested Developed

Actual Elec Fractioninvested Developing<100 percent>


<Percent with non costpolicy in timeDeveloping>

<Actual Fractioninvested in nonCCS vs

CCS>

Effect of performancestandard adj for CCS


CCS>

Network effectattractiveness adj for

CCS

min cost ratiofor CCS

min cost ratio


Table 4-50 Attractiveness Calculated Parameters


Actual Elec Fraction invested[ElecPath]

The fraction of all the new elec capacity that is to be provided by each energy path, based on the fraction for each energy source, and the percentage of the world with the non cost policy of no new investment in a given source.

Percent of global energy from Developed/"100 percent"*Actual Elec Fraction invested Developed[ElecPath]+Percent of global energy from Developing/"100 percent"*Actual Elec Fraction invested Developing[ElecPath]

Dmnl

Fraction invested in elec energy source[ElecPath]

The fraction of all the new elec capacity that is to be provided by each energy path. Dmnl

Fraction invested in elec energy source[ElecPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec

thermal plus CCS]Fraction invested in elec energy agg source[ElecPath]

Fraction invested in elec energy source [Elec thermal plus CCS]

Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [Elec thermal]*Fraction invested in elec energy agg source[Elec thermal]

Fraction invested in elec energy source [CCS Paths]

Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [CCS Paths]*Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developed[Elec thermal]

Actual Elec Fraction invested Developed

The fraction of all the new elec capacity that is to be provided by each energy path, based on the fraction for each energy source, and the percentage of the developed countries with the non cost policy of no new investment in a given source.

Fraction invested in elec energy source[ElecPath]*(1-Percent with non cost policy in time Developed/"100 percent")+Fraction invested in elec energy source Developed[ElecPath]*Percent with non cost policy in time Developed/"100 percent"

Dmnl

Actual Elec Fraction invested The fraction of all the new elec capacity that is to be provided Dmnl

Figure 4.37 Cost Effect Attractiveness

Source share costsensitivity

Cost effectattractiveness

<Source internalcost>

Adjusted sourcecost


<Ref avg eleccost>

Ratio of cost toavg cost

Cost effect attractivenessfor CCS Developed CCS source share

cost sensitivity


DevelopedFraction invested in

nonCCS vs CCSDeveloped

Weighted avg adjustedsource cost with CCS

Ratio of cost to avgcost for CCS


Developed

<Non cost policy forCCS decisionsDeveloped>

Cost effect attractivenessfor CCS Developing


Developing


Developing


<Percent of global energyfrom Developing>




<Non cost policy forCCS decisionsDeveloping>

<Percent with non costpolicy in time Developing>


Developing

<100 percent>

Actual Fractioninvested in nonCCS vs

CCS<Percent with non cost

policy in time Developed>


CCS><min cost ratio>

<min cost ratio forCCS>




Developing

by each energy path, based on the fraction for each energy source, and the percentage of the developing countries with the non cost policy of no new investment in a given source.

Fraction invested in elec energy source[ElecPath]*(1-Percent with non cost policy in time Developing/"100 percent")+Fraction invested in elec energy source Developing[ElecPath]*Percent with non cost policy in time Developing/"100 percent"

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developed[ElecPath] Dmnl

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developed[ElecPath] :EXCEPT:

[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developed[ElecPath]

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developed[Elec thermal]

Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed[Elec thermal]*Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developed[Elec thermal]

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developed[CCS paths]

Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed[CCS Paths]*Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developed[Elec thermal]

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developing[ElecPath] Dmnl

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developing[ElecPath] :EXCEPT:

[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developing[ElecPath]

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developing[Elec thermal]

Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developing[Elec thermal]*Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developing[Elec thermal]

Fraction invested in elec energy source Developing[CCS paths]

Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developing[CCS Paths]*Fraction invested in elec energy agg source



Parameter Definition UnitsDeveloping[Elec thermal]

Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developed[ElecPath]

The fraction of all the new electric capacity that is to be provided by each energy source in the developed countries.

ZIDZ(Elec energy source attractiveness Developed[ElecPath], Total elec source attractiveness Developed)

Dmnl

Fraction invested in elec energy agg source Developing[ElecPath]

The fraction of all the new electric capacity that is to be provided by each energy source in the developing countries.

ZIDZ(Elec energy source attractiveness Developing[ElecPath], Total elec source attractiveness Developing)

Dmnl

Elec energy source attractiveness[ElecPath]

The preference of each energy path relative to the others, synthesizing cost, network, and performance standard.

Cost effect attractiveness[ElecPath]*Network effect attractiveness adj for CCS[ElecPath]*Effect of performance standard adj for CCS[ElecPath]

Dmnl

Elec energy source attractiveness Developed[ElecPath]

The preference of each electric energy path relative to the others, but also accounting for the non cost policies of no new investments in specified sources in the developed countries.

Elec energy source attractiveness[ElecPath]*Non cost policy Developed[ElecPath]

Dmnl

Elec energy source attractiveness Developing[ElecPath]

The preference of each electric energy path relative to the others, but also accounting for the non cost policies of no new investments in specified sources in the developing countries.

Dmnl



Parameter Definition UnitsElec energy source attractiveness[ElecPath]*Non cost policy

Developing[ElecPath]

Total elec source attractiveness Developed

The total attractiveness of all the electric energy sources in the developed countries.

SUM(Elec energy source attractiveness Developed[ElecPath!])

Dmnl

Total elec source attractiveness Developing

The total attractiveness of all the electric energy sources in the developing countries.

SUM(Elec energy source attractiveness Developing[ElecPath!])

Dmnl

Non cost policy Developed[ElecPath] Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source. Dmnl

[Only elec paths] No new [ ] Developed

[Elec thermal plus CCS] Max of non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Max of non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Makes non cost policy of each elec thermal path to be the non cost policy max of it and its CCS counterpart. dmnl

Coal/Coal CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec coal!])

Oil/Oil CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec oil!])Gas/Gas CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec gas!])Bio/Bio CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec bio!])

Non cost policy Developed[ElecPath] Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source. Dmnl

[Only elec paths] No new [ ] Developing

[Elec thermal plus CCS] Max of non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Max of non cost policy for CCS Makes non cost policy of each elec thermal path to be the non dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsdecisions Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS] cost policy max of it and its CCS counterpart.

Coal/Coal CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec coal!])

Oil/Oil CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec oil!])

Gas/Gas CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec gas!])

Bio/Bio CCS vmax(Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec bio!])


Table 4-51 Cost Effect Attractiveness Parameter Inputs


Source share cost sensitivity

The sensitivity of technology choice to the profit margin of competing options. Set to be absolute value so that greater values lead the more costly technologies to make up a smaller share of new energy system capacity.

0.1-10 2 Dmnl

CCS source share cost sensitivity

The sensitivity of technology choice to the profit margin of competing options between CCS/nonCCS couples. Set to be absolute value so that greater values lead the more costly technologies to make up a smaller share of new energy system capacity.

0.1-10 10 Dmnl

min cost ratio for CCSMin cost ratio to prevent the CCS cost attractiveness sensitivity from crashing the model.

0-1 0.1 Dmnl

min cost ratioMin cost ratio to prevent the source cost attractiveness sensitivity from crashing the model.

0-1 1e-5 Dmnl

Ref avg elec cost Average initial cost of each carrier. 40 $/GJ


Table 4-52. Cost Effect Attractiveness Calculated Parameters

Parameter Defiefnition Units

Cost effect attractiveness[ElecPath]

The preference of each energy path relative to the others based on more costly paths being less preferable. Measure of the market potential of each energy source as a function of the relative cost of each energy source. The attractiveness of elec thermal paths accounts for the weighted average of the fraction of the CCS/nonCCS couples, which are reincorporated in the fraction Fraction invested in energy source.

Dmnl

[ElecPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec thermal plus CCS]

MAX(min cost ratio, Ratio of cost to avg cost[ElecPath])^-Source share cost sensitivity

[Elec thermal] MAX(min cost ratio, Ratio of cost to avg cost for CCS[Elec thermal])^-Source share cost sensitivity

[CCS Paths] 0

Ratio of cost to avg cost[ElecPath]Ratio of the adjusted costs to the reference average cost.

Adjusted source cost[ElecPath]/Ref avg elec costDmnl

Cost effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]

The preference of each elec thermal path with and without CCS relative to the others based on more costly paths being less preferable.

MAX(min cost ratio for CCS, Ratio of cost to avg cost[Elec thermal plus CCS])^-CCS source share cost sensitivity

Dmnl

Total source attractiveness for CCS[Elec thermal]

For each elec thermal path, the sum of the attractiveness of it and its CCS counterpart. Dmnl

Coal SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec coal!])Oil SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec oil!])

Gas SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec gas!])Bio SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec bio!])

Weighted avg adjusted source cost with CCS[Elec thermal]

Makes adjusted cost of each elec thermal path to be the adjusted cost weighted average of it and its CCS counterpart. $/GJ




Coal SUM(Adjusted source cost[Elec coal!]*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [Elec coal!])

Oil SUM(Adjusted source cost[Elec oil!]*Actual fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec oil!])

Gas SUM(Adjusted source cost[Elec gas!]*Actual fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec gas!])

Bio SUM(Adjusted source cost[Elec bio!]*Actual fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec bio!])

Ratio of cost to avg cost for CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]

For each elec thermal path, the ratio of the adjusted costs, weighted according to the fraction of CCS/nonCCS, to the reference average cost of electricity.

Weighted avg adjusted source cost with CCS[Elec thermal]/Ref avg elec cost

Dmnl

Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]

The fraction of all the new capacity of each elec thermal path that is to be provided by CCS vs nonCCS paths. Dmnl

[Elec thermal] ZIDZ(Energy effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec thermal], Total source attractiveness for CCS[Elec thermal])

[CCS Paths] 1-Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec thermal]Fraction invested in nonCCS vs

CCS policy[Elec thermal plus CCS]

The fraction of all the new capacity of each elec thermal path that is to be provided by CCS vs nonCCS paths with the non cost policy imposed.

Dmnl

Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developed

Cost effect attractiveness for CCS with the non cost policy of no new invesment in a given source imposed in the Developed countries.

Cost effect attractiveness for CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]*Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Dmnl

Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Cost effect attractiveness for CCS with the non cost policy of no Dmnl




Developing

new invesment in a given source imposed in the Developing countries.

Cost effect attractiveness for CCS [Elec thermal plus CCS]*Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Total source attractiveness for CCS Developed

Total cost effect attractiveness for CCS with the non cost policy of no new invesment in a given source imposed in the Developed countries.

Dmnl

Coal SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developed[Elec coal!])Oil SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developed[Elec oil!])

Gas SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developed[Elec gas!])Bio SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developed[Elec bio!])

Total source attractiveness for CCS Developing

Total cost effect attractiveness for CCS with the non cost policy of no new invesment in a given source imposed in the Developing countries.

Dmnl

Coal SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developing[Elec coal!])Oil SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developing[Elec oil!])

Gas SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Develoing[Elec gas!])Bio SUM(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developing[Elec bio!])

Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed Dmnl

[Elec Thermal] ZIDZ(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developed[Elec thermal], Total source attractiveness for CCS Developed[Elec thermal])

[CCS Paths] 1-Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed[Elec thermal]Fraction invested in nonCCS vs

CCS Developing Dmnl

[Elec Thermal] ZIDZ(Cost effect attractiveness for CCS Developing[Elec thermal], Total source attractiveness for CCS Developing[Elec thermal])

[CCS Paths] 1-Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developing[Elec thermal]




Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

The fraction of all the new capacity of each elec thermal path that is to be provided by CCS vs nonCCS paths, accounting for the percentage of the developed countries with the non cost policy of no new investment in a given source.

Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]*(1-Percent with non cost policy in time Developed/"100 percent")+Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]*Percent with non cost policy in time Developed/"100 percent"

Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developing

The fraction of all the new capacity of each elec thermal path that is to be provided by CCS vs nonCCS paths, accounting for the percentage of the developing countries with the non cost policy of no new investment in a given source.

Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]*(1-Percent with non cost policy in time Developing/

"100 percent")+Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]*Percent with non cost policy in time Developing/"100 percent"

Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS[Elec thermal plus CCS]

The fraction of all the new capacity of each elec thermal path that is to be provided by CCS vs nonCCS paths, accounting for the percentage of the world with the non cost policy of no new investment in a given source.

Percent of global energy from Developed/"100 percent"*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]+Percent of global energy from Developing/"100 percent"*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Dmnl


4.4.2 Performance Standard, Network Effect Attractiveness, and Other Non-Cost Policies

The performance standard effect is a function of a specified carbon intensity threshold and the carbon intensity of each energy source resource, defined in Section 7. The performance standard creates a soft threshold, beyond which sources with high emissions intensity (e.g., coal) are greatly diminished in attractiveness and are effectively eliminated from the investment mix. The network effect is a function the share of each energy source. The structures of these effects are shown in Figure 4.38. The effect of non-cost policies, Figure 4.39, aims to capture any legislation or rule demanding no new investment in a specified source for a percentage of the global energy needs.

Figure 4.38 Performance Standard and Network Effect Attractiveness

Network effectattractiveness

<Energy sourcefraction by carrier>

Networksensitivity

<Carbon intensity ofresource>

Effect of performancestandard

Emissionsperformance standard

Performancetolerance

Performancestandard time

<Time>


Figure 4.39 Effect of Non Cost Policies for Developed Countries (comparable for Developing)

Non cost policy for CCSdecisions Developed

Non cost policyDeveloped

Year of non costpolicy Developed

No new FcoalDeveloped

No new FgasDeveloped

No new FoilDeveloped

Years to achieve noncost policy Developed

No new FbioDeveloped

No new nuclearDeveloped

No new hydroDeveloped

No new renewDeveloped

No new newDeveloped

No new coal CCSDeveloped

No new gas CCSDeveloped

No new oil CCSDeveloped

No new bio CCSDeveloped

No new elec coalnonCCS Developed

No new elec gasnonCCS Developed

No new elec oilnonCCS Developed

No new elec biononCCS Developed

Max of non cost policy forCCS decisions Developed

Percent with non costpolicy in timeDeveloped

<100 percent>


Table 4-53 Performance Standard, Network Effect, and Other Non-Cost Policy Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values UnitsNetwork sensitivity Strength of network effect. 0-0.1 0 Dmnl

Emissions performance standard

A lower standard disincentives higher emitting sources. This has a default value of 100. Costs will show up at lower levels: Coal 91, Oil 71, Gas 50 TonCO2/TJ 10-100 100

TonCO2/TJ

Performance toleranceTolerance for marginally-performing sources 1-40 5

TonCO2/TJ

Performance standard timeYear when the performance standard is implemented.

2017-2100 2017 Year

No new XXX[[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: :[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source, defaults to 0 for no such constraint.

0-1 0 Dmnl

No new XXX[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source in determining the CCS/nonCCS fractions for each thermal path, defaults to 0 for no such constraint.

0-1 0 Dmnl

Year of non cost policy Developed Year that the non cost policy starts to takes effect for developed countries.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Year of non cost policy Developing Year that the non cost policy starts to takes effect for developing countries

2017-2100 2017 Year

Years to achieve non cost policy DevelopedTime to reach the full percentage of the developed countries specified for the non cost policy.

1-20 10 Year

Years to achieve non cost policy DevelopingTime to reach the full percentage of the developing countries specified for the non cost policy.

1-20 10 Year


Table 4-54. Non-Cost Policy Calculated Parameters


Effect of performance standard adj for CCS[ElecPath]

Makes effect of performance standard of each elec thermal path to be the adjusted cost weighted average of it and its CCS counterpart.

Dmnl

Network effect attractiveness[ElecPath]

The preference of an electric energy path as more capacity is provided by that path.

(Energy source fraction by carrier[ElecPath]/(1-Energy source fraction by carrier[ElecPath]))^Network sensitivity

Dmnl

Network effect attractiveness adj for CCS[ElecPath]

Makes network effect of each elec thermal path to be the adjusted cost weighted average of it and its CCS counterpart.

Dmnl

Coal SUM(Network effect attractiveness[Elec coal!]*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [Elec coal!])

Oil SUM(Network effect attractiveness[Elec oil!]*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [Elec oil!])

Gas SUM(Network effect attractiveness[Elec gas!]*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [Elec gas!])

Bio SUM(Network effect attractiveness[Elec bio!]*Actual Fraction invested in nonCCS vs CCS [Elec bio!])

Only elec paths Network effect attractiveness[Only elec paths]CCS Paths 0

Max of effect of non cost policy[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Makes non cost policy of each elec thermal path to be the non cost policy max of it and its CCS counterpart. Dmnl

[Elec coal] vmax(Effect of non cost policy for CCS decisions[Elec coal!])[Elec oil] vmax(Effect of non cost policy for CCS decisions[Elec oil!])

[Elec gas] vmax(Effect of non cost policy for CCS decisions[Elec gas!])[Elec bio] vmax(Effect of non cost policy for CCS decisions[Elec bio!])

Percent with non cost policy in time Percent of world applying the policy for no new investments in Percent




Developed[EnergyPath]that source, starting in the year of non cost policy and ramping up linearly to the full percentage of the developed countries within the Years to achieve non cost policy.

[EnergyPath]:EXCEPT: [Elec thermal plus CCS]

ramp(Percent with non cost policy[EnergyPath]/Years to achieve non cost policy[EnergyPath] ,Year of non cost policy[EnergyPath] , Year of non cost policy[EnergyPath]+Years to achieve non cost policy[EnergyPath])

ECoal MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[ECoal],Percent with non cost policy in time[FCoal])

EOil MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[EOil], Percent with non cost policy in time[FOil])

EGas MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[EGas], Percent with non cost policy in time[FGas])

EBio MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[EBio],Percent with non cost policy in time[FBio])

CCS Paths Percent with CCS decisions in time[CCS Paths]

Percent with non cost policy in time Developing[EnergyPath]

Percent of world applying the policy for no new investments in that source, starting in the year of non cost policy and ramping up linearly to the full percentage of the developing countries within the Years to achieve non cost policy.

Percent

[EnergyPath]:EXCEPT: [Elec thermal plus CCS]

ramp(Percent with non cost policy[EnergyPath]/Years to achieve non cost policy[EnergyPath] ,Year of non cost policy[EnergyPath] , Year of non cost policy[EnergyPath]+Years to achieve non cost policy[EnergyPath])

ECoal MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[ECoal],Percent with non cost policy in time[FCoal])

EOil MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[EOil], Percent with non cost policy in time[FOil])




EGas MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[EGas], Percent with non cost policy in time[FGas])

EBio MIN(Percent with CCS decisions in time[EBio],Percent with non cost policy in time[FBio])

CCS Paths Percent with CCS decisions in time[CCS Paths]Non cost policy

Developed[EnergyPath]Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a

given source. Dmnl

[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec thermal plus CCS] 1-No new XXX Developed

Elec thermal plus CCS Max of non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Non cost policy Developing[EnergyPath]

Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source. Dmnl

[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: [Elec thermal plus CCS] 1-No new XXX Developing

Elec thermal plus CCS Max of non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source in determining the CCS/nonCCS fractions for each thermal path.

1-No new XXX Developed[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Dmnl

Non cost policy for CCS decisions Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source in determining the CCS/nonCCS fractions for each thermal path.

1-No new XXX Developing[Elec thermal plus CCS]

Dmnl

Non cost policy Developed[FuelPath] Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsgiven source.

1-No new XXX Developed

Non cost policy Developing[FuelPath]

Factor unrelated to cost that demands no new investment in a given source.

1-No new XXX Developing

Dmnl

Percent of global energy from Developed

Calculated from: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. DOE/EIA-0484(2011). September 2011. Chapter 1. World energy demand and economic outlook: Figure 12. World energy consumption, 1990-2035

WITH LOOKUP (time/one year)(( 1990 , 56.14 ),( 2000 , 57.76 ),( 2008 , 48.4 ),( 2015 , 43.67 ),( 2020 , 42.06 ),( 2025 , 40.17 ),( 2030 , 38.63 ),( 2035 , 37.43 ))

Percent

Percent of global energy from Developing "100 percent"-Percent of global energy from Developed Percent

Percent with non cost policy in time Developed

ramp("100 percent"/Years to achieve non cost policy Developed,Year of non cost policy Developed , Year of non cost policy Developing+Years to achieve non cost policy Developed)

Percent

Percent with non cost policy in time ramp("100 percent"/Years to achieve non cost policy Percent




DevelopingDeveloping,Year of non cost policy Developing , Year of non cost policy Developing+Years to achieve non cost policy Developing)


5. Market Clearing and Utilization Formulation

The Market and Utilization sector uses a market clearing theory to balance supply and demand given costs, prices, and assumed market attributes. In summary, the model includes the following:

1. Extraction capacity and price of extracted fuels.

2. Supply/demand/price of each fuel, which can either be used for elec or nonelec consumption. The variable costs include the extracted fuel price from 1.

3. Supply/demand/price of electricity, where the variable cost includes the market price of delivered fuels from 2.

4. For each delivered fuel, the recent market price to the consumer relative to expected market price to the consumer adjusts the reference demand. The reference demand is the sum of the long term demand for nonelectric consumption accounting for noncost policies (Section 3.5) and the demand planned for electricity, factoring fuel losses and thermal efficiencies. The adjusted reference demand is what feeds into the market clearing of each fuel.

5. For electricity, the recent market price to the consumer relative to expected market of the consumer price adjusts the reference demand, i.e., the long term demand accounting for noncost policies (Section 3.5). This adjusted reference demand is what feeds into the market clearing of electricity.

5.1 Market Price of Extracted Fuel

The market price of extracted fuels depends on the utilization and price effects as well as the cost of extraction, which depends on technological cost improvements and overheating of capacity (4.2.1), and resource constraints (Section 4.2.2). Subsidies and taxes could adjust the profit margin (5.2.2), thereby affecting the extraction capacity and utilization of that capacity. That capacity is defined in Section 4.1.


Figure 5.40 Structure of Market Price of Extracted Fuels

Initial unit cost of newextraction capacity

Reference marginalextracted fuel cost

<Extraction pricehistorical data>

Bio Ref marginalextraction cost

Substitution effecton extracted price

Profit margin for newextraction capacity

Unit cost of newextraction capacity

Aggregatedextraction fuel prices

Price ofextracted fuelendogenousChange in

extracted fuel price

Time to adjustextracted fuel price

Indicated price ofextracted fuel

Utilization effect onprice of extracted fuel

Max sensitivity of fuelprice to substitutes

Sensitivity ofextraction price to

utilization

Overheating effect onextraction capacity

cost

Sensitivity ofextraction cost to

overheating

Extraction fuel pricerelative to aggregate

Aggregate fuelconsumption

Fuel consumption asfraction of aggregate

Sensitivity of extractedfuel price to substitutes

<Initial profit marginfor extracted fuel>

Expected extracted fuelprice relative to

aggregate

Initial expectedextraction price relative

to aggregate

Normal utilization ofextraction capacity

Min price ofextracted fuel

Expected profitmargin for extracted

fuel

Time to perceiveextraction profits

<Primary EnergyDemand by aggregated

resource>

<Learning effecton extraction

capacity cost><Resource effect

on cost>

<Ratio of target extractioncapacity completion to

current capability>

<Utilization ofextraction capacity>

Extraction pricehistorical last data

<Extraction pricehistorical data>

<Time>

Price ofextracted fuel

<Reference marginalextracted fuel cost>


Use availabledata

Max overheatingeffect

<Source subsidyto extractors>

Time to perceiveextraction price

Time of lastextraction price data

Average operatingcost of extraction

Ratio of operating tototal extraction cost

Average cost ofextraction capacity

Time to averageextraction cost

Average explorationcost of extraction

Profit margin forexisting extraction

capacity

<Source subsidyto extractors>



Table 5-55 Market Price of Extracted Fuels Parameter Inputs


Sensitivity of price to utilization

Measure of how much the price changes with utilization variance from normal. Utilization greater than normal increases the price; conversely, utilization below normal decreases the price. The increases and decreases are greater as the sensitivity value increases.

0-2 2 Dmnl

Ratio of operating to total extraction cost [Rnonelec]

Ratio of O&M costs to total cost of extraction, where the remainder is exploration costs.

0-1 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4 Dmnl

Time to average extraction cost Time over which new costs of extraction are averaged. 1-10 10 Year

Max sensitivity of fuel price to substitutesMeasure of the effect of the aggregate of the prices of other fuels has on the price of each fuel.

0-1 0.2 Dmnl

Initial expected fuel price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec] Dmnl

Coal 0.57Oil 1.5

Gas 0.57Bio 1.5

Sensitivity of extraction cost to overheating

Measure of how much the cost increases with the target extraction capacity completion relative to the current capability.

0-2 0.5 Dmnl

Max overheating effect Limits how much the cost can increase with overheating. 1-5 1 Dmnl

Bio Ref marginal extracted cost 0-10 3 $/GJInitial profit margin for extracted 0.01 Dmnl


Table 5-55 Market Price of Extracted Fuels Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range Default Values Unitsfuel[Rnonelec]

Time to perceive extracted profits 2-10 4 YearsTime to perceive extracted price 2-10 4 YearsTime to adjust extracted fuel price 1-5 1 Year

Use available data

Allows the user to use the available historical extracted price data (British Petroleum:1990-2016 coal, oil and gas). If set to 0, only the initial values are used.

0-1 1 Dmnl

Time of last extraction price data[Rnonelec] Last available historical data of extraction prices

1990-2100 Year

Coal, Oil, Gas 2016Bio 1990

Source subsidies to extractors[Rnonelec]Positive values indicate a subsidy to extractors; negative values indicate a tax to extractors

-10-10 0 $/GJ

Source subsidy to extractors start time[Rnonelec] Year the extractor subsidy/tax starts. 2017-

2100 2100 Year

Source subsidy to extractors stop time[Rnonelec] Year the extractor subsidy/tax stops. 2017-

2100 2100 Year


Table 5-56. Market Price of Extracted Fuels Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsPrice of extracted fuel

endogenous[Rnonelec] $/GJ

[Rnonelec] :EXCEPT: [Rbio]

Uses the available historical price data if Use available data = 1 (default).

INTEG(Change in extracted fuel price[Rnonelec], IF THEN ELSE(Use available data, Extraction price historical last data[Rnonelec], Extraction price historical data[Rnonelec]))

[Rbio] INTEG(Change in extracted fuel price[RBio], Reference marginal extracted cost[RBio])

BP prices last data[Rnonelec]GET DATA BETWEEN TIMES(Extraction price historical

data[Rnonelec], Time of last extraction price data[Rnonelec] , 1 )

$/GJ

Change in extracted fuel price[Rnonelec] $/GJ

[Rnonelec] :EXCEPT: [Rbio]

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Time of last extraction price data[Rnonelec] :AND: Use available data, 0, (Indicated price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec]-Price of extracted fuel endogenous[Rnonelec])/Time to adjust extracted fuel price)

[Rbio] (Indicated price of extracted fuel[RBio]-Price of extracted fuel endogenous[RBio])/Time to adjust extracted fuel price

Indicated price of extracted fuel [Rnonelec]

MAX(Price of extracted fuel [Rnonelec] * Utilization effect on extracted price[Rnonelec]*Substitution effect on extracted price[Rnonelec], Min price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec])

$/GJ

Average operating cost of extraction[Rnonelec]

Average cost of extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*"Ratio of operating to total extraction cost"[Rnonelec] $/GJ

Average exploration cost of extraction[Rnonelec]

Average cost of extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*(1-"Ratio of operating to total extraction cost"[Rnonelec]) $/GJ

Profit margin for existing (Price of extracted fuel [Rnonelec] - Average cost of extraction $/GJ




extraction capacity[Rnonelec]capacity[Rnonelec]+Source subsidy to extractors[Rnonelec])/Average cost of extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

Min price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec]

The minimum price is assumed to be the average cost of operating the extraction as the exploration costs are already sunk.

Average operating cost of extraction[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Utilization effect on price of extracted fuel [Rnonelec]

(Utilization of extraction capacity[Rnonelec]/Normal utilization of extraction capacity[Rnonelec])^Sensitivity of extraction price to utilization

Dmnl

Substitution effect on price[Rnonelec]

(Expected fuel price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec]/Fuel Price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec])^Sensitivity of fuel price to substitutes[Rnonelec]

Dmnl

Fuel consumption as fraction of aggregate

Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec] / Aggregate fuel consumption Dmnl

Aggregate fuel consumptionSum of all extracted energy.

SUM(Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec!])EJ/year

Aggregated primary fuel prices

Aggregate extracted price of fuels.

SUM(Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec!]*Price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec!])/SUM(Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec!])

$/GJ

Fuel Price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec]

ZIDZ(Price of extracted fuel [Rnonelec],Aggregated primary fuel prices) Dmnl

Expected fuel price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec]

DELAY1I(Fuel Price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec], Time to perceive extracted price, Initial expected fuel price relative to aggregate[Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Min price of extracted Unit cost of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec] * Min ratio of $/GJ



Parameter Definition Unitsfuel[Rnonelec] extracted price to unit cost[Rnonelec]

Unit cost of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

Initial unit cost of new extraction capacity [Rnonelec]*Resource effect on cost[Rnonelec]*Tech effect on extraction capacity cost[Rnonelec]*Overheating effect on extraction capacity cost[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Overheating effect on extraction capacity cost[Rnonelec]

MIN(Max overheating effect, MAX(1,Ratio of target extraction capacity completion to current capability[Rnonelec])^Sensitivity of extraction cost to overheating)

$/GJ

Initial unit cost of new extraction capacity [Rnonelec]

Reference marginal extracted fuel cost[Rnonelec] / (1 + Initial profit margin for extracted fuel[Rnonelec]) $/GJ

Source subsidy to extractors[Rnonelec]

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Source subsidy to extractors stop time[Rnonelec]:OR: Time<Source subsidy to extractors start time[Rnonelec], 0, Source subsidies to extractors[Rnonelec])

$/GJ

Profit margin for new extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

(Price of extracted fuel [Rnonelec] - Unit cost of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec]+Source subsidy to extractors[Rnonelec])/Unit cost of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Expected profit margin for primary fuel[Rnonelec]

SMOOTHi(Profit margin for new extraction capacity[Rnonelec], Time to perceive extracted profits, Initial profit margin for primary fuel[Rnonelec])

$/GJ


5.2 Electricity and Delivered Fuels

5.2.1 Market Clearing and Utilization of Electricity and Delivered Fuels

The market price and utilization of electricity and delivered fuels depends on the long term demand defined in Section 3.5, the supply capacity defined in 4.1, costs of supply defined in 4.2, and market price adjustments defined in 5.2.2.


Figure 5.41 Structure of Market Clearing and Utilization of Electric Energy

Demand ofelectricity to

producers

Market price ofelectricity

Src utilizationof elecplanned Utiliz chg rt for

elec

Production for elec

Indicated utilizationfor elec

Aggregate outputfor elec

Time to AdjUtilization

Ratio of elec marketprice to price basis

Ratio of agg outputto ref demand

<Reference elec demand toproducers at customary use>

Demand elasticity ofelectricity

Aggregate elecdemand to producers

Ratio of elec aggdemand to ref demand

Reference agg elecdemand at adjusted use

Profit to capital costratio for elec

Utiliz at zero PCCRfor elec

Utiliz exponentfor elec

Utiliz max forelec Utiliz at neg1 PCCR

for elec

Utiliz at pos1 PCCRfor elec

<Policy adjustmentto elec utilization>

Unit profit bysource for elec

Initial elecutilization

Initial elec price

<Avg embodied fixedcost of elec capacity>

exp max

Constraint ofavailability

Elec source utilizationconstrained

Src utilization of elecplanned adjusted by policyMarket price of elec

to consumers

Recent efficiencyadjusted price of elec to

consumers

Direct effect of priceon elec demand Relative efficiency adjusted

price of elec to consumers

Consumer time to reactto price changes

Reference elec demandat adjusted use


<Demand of deliveredfuels for elec thermal

consumption> <Demand of delivered fuelsfor elec CCS consumption>

<Subsidy to electricconsumers over time>

<Source subsidy toelectric producers over

time>

<Instant Variable costof elec supply>

Constraint of deliveredfuel availability

Elec sourceutilization

Efficiency adjusted priceof elec to consumers Initial efficiency adjusted

price of elec to consumers

<End use share ofelec>

Overall energy intensityof elec using capital

Initial overall energyintensity of elec using

capital

<Reference elec energyintensity of capital>

<Avg efficiency ofsupply>

Market price of elec toconsumers by resource

<Min price>


Figure 5.42 Structure of Market Clearing and Utilization of Delivered fuels

Demand ofdelivered fuels

Src utilization offuels planned Utiliz chg rt of

fuels

Production offuels

Indicated fuelsutilization

Demand elasticityof fuels

Profit to capital costratio for fuels

Src utilization offuels

Unit profit forfuels

Market price ofdelivered fuels to

consumers

<Time to AdjUtilization>

<Policy adjustment tofuel reference demand>

Ratio of fuel outputto ref demand

Reference fueldemand for nonelec


Utiliz at zeroPCCR by fuel

Utiliz exponentby fuel

Utiliz max by fuel

Utiliz at neg1PCCR by fuel

Utiliz at pos1PCCR by fuel


<Avg efficiency offuel capacity>

<Instant Variable costof fuel supply>

<Avg embodied fixedcost of fuel capacity>

Fuel availability

<Avg efficiency offuel capacity>


<exp max>

Demand of deliveredfuels for nonelec

consumption

Reference fueldemand for elec CCS

Demand of deliveredfuels for elec thermal

consumption

Market price ofdelivered fuels

Recent efficiencyadjusted price of fuel

to consumers

Reference fuel demandat adjusted use

Direct effect of price onnonelec fuel demand

Consumer time to reactto price changesRatio of delivered fuel

market price to referenceprice

Reference demand fornonelec at adjusted use

<Source subsidy fordelivered fuels over time>

Demand of deliveredfuels for elec CCS

consumption

Reference fuel demandfor elec thermal

<Avg efficiency ofsupply>


<Src utilization ofelec planned adjusted

by policy>


<Reference nonelecenergy demand adjusted>

<Reference fuel demandat adjusted use>

<Policy adjustment todelivered fuel utilization>

Efficiency adjusted priceof nonelec to consumers

Initial efficiency adjustedprice of nonelec to

consumers

Overall energy intensityof nonelec using capital

Initial overall energyintensity of nonelec using

capital

<End use shares ofnonelec>

<Reference fuelintensity of capital>

Relative efficiency adjustedprice of fuel to consumers

Ratio of fuel output forelec to ref demand for elec

Utilization constrained byfuel availability

Reference demand offuel for elec

<Carbon tax>

Min price

Figure 5.43 Structure of Market Clearing and Utilization of Initialization

Initial fuel utilizationfrom initial PCCR

Initial fuels PCCR

Initial unit profitfor fuels

<Utiliz at zeroPCCR by fuel>

<Utiliz exponentby fuel>

<Utiliz max byfuel>



<Reference O&Mcost>

Initial elec PCCRInitial elec utilizationfrom initial PCCR

Initial unit profit bysource for elec

<Reference O&Mcost>


<Initial elec price>

<Delivered fuelcosts for elec>

<exp max>

<Utiliz at zeroPCCR for elec>

<Utiliz exponentfor elec>

<Utiliz max forelec>

Initial price ofdelivered fuels

Initial ratio delivered toextracted price


<exp max>

Initial delivered fuelPCCR


Table 5-57 Electricity and Delivered fuels Market and Utilization Parameter Inputs


Reference demand elasticity of electricity

The elasticity of the short term demand, which is a measure of (dy/dx)/(y/x) = (dy/y)/(dx/x). Assumes a linear demand curve such that this elasticity is at the normal operating point.

0-2 0.2 Dmnl

Reference demand elasticity of fuels[Rnonelec]

For each fuel, the elasticity of the short term demand. Assumes a linear demand curve such that this elasticity is at the normal operating point.

0-2 0.1 Dmnl

Initial elec customary price 10-50 40 $/GJ

Initial elec utilization[Resource] Based on initial indicated utilization as determined from the initial calculated PCCR. Dmnl

Coal 0.96Coal CCS 0.91

Oil 0.58Oil CCS 0.35

Gas 0.96Gas CCS 0.62

Bio 0.64Bio CCS 0.43Nuclear 0.87

Hydro 0.9Renewables 0.79

New Tech 0.68Time to Adj Utilization 1-2 1 YearConsumer time to react to price

changesTime for consumers to react to change in market price. 0.25-1 0.5 Year

exp maxPrevents term in the exponent of S-curve function from exceeding the limitations of the modeling software.

10 Dmnl

Figure 5.44 Structure of Dispatch Indicators

<Energy supplycapacity>

Energy to meetdemand by path

Total energy tomeet demand

Utilization

Electricityproduction

Demand met byresource


<VSERRATLEASTONE>

<VSSUM> Demand met bycarrier Primary energy

by path

<Efficiency>

Total demand

Total supply utilized

Total nonelecsupply utilized

Total elec supplyutilized

Total elec demand

Total nonelecdemand

Ratio of supply tocapacity

Ratio of actual toreference demand

<Referencedemand>

Energy supply utilizedby resource and carrier

Actual demanded bycarrier and end use

without losses

<T&D losses><Total energy

requirements by end useand carrier>

<Reference supplycapacity>

Final energydemand in MWh

<EJ per kWh>

<KW per MW>

Energy to meetdemand by path in

MWh

Primary energydemand in MWh

<Energy to meetdemand by path>

<Primary energyby path>

<Production>

<Demand>MWh unit

Energy supplycapacity by path in

MWh

Demand met byaggregated paths


Table 5-57 Electricity and Delivered fuels Market and Utilization Parameter Inputs


Min price Prevents the price to the consumer from becoming free with subsidies. 0.1 $/GJ

Annual utilization change limit Prevents integration error from occurring when extreme scenarios outside realistic ranges are tested. 0.1 1/year

Initial ratio delivered to extracted price [Rnonelec]

Used to calculate the initial price of fuels and initial utilization. Dmnl

Coal 1.5Oil 2

Gas 2Bio 1.5

Utilization of elec adjustment factor[Resource]

Noncost policy to reduce electric source utilization. A value of 1 is for no change to planned utilization. A value of 0.5 forces the planned utilization of the source to be half of what it would be without the policy.

0-1 1 Dmnl

Utilization of elec policy start time[Resource]

Start year of noncost policy to reduce electric source utilization.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Utilization of elec policy stop time[Resource]

Stop year of noncost policy to reduce electric source utilization.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Utilization of delivered fuel adjustment factor [Rnonelec]

Noncost policy to reduce delivered fuel utilization. A value of 1 is for no change to planned utilization. A value of 0.5 forces the planned utilization of the source to be half of what it would be without the policy.

0-1 1 Dmnl

Utilization of delivered fuel policy start time[Rnonelec]

Start year of noncost policy to reduce delivered fuel utilization.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Utilization of delivered fuel policy stop time[Rnonelec]

Stop year of noncost policy to reduce delivered fuel utilization.

2017-2100 2017 Year


Table 5-58. Electricity Market and Utilization Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsMarket price of electricity Initial elec price*Ratio of elec market price to price basis $/GJ

Market price of elec to consumers by resource[Resource]

The market price that the suppliers receive minus the amount subsidied is the price the consumer pays.

MAX(0, Market price of electricity-Source subsidy to electric producers over time[Resource])

$/GJ

Market price of elec to consumers

The weighted average of the market price of electricity to the consumers and the amount of production of each resource minus any general subsidy to electric consumers.

MAX(Min price, SUM(Market price of elec to consumers by resource[Resource!]*Production for elec[Resource!])/Aggregate output for elec-Subsidy to electric consumers over time)

$/GJ

Price of elec to consumer recent SMOOTH(Market price of elec to consumers, Consumer time to react to price changes) $/GJ

Overall energy intensity of elec using capital

SUM(Reference elec energy intensity of capital[EndUseSector!]*End use share of elec[EndUseSector!]) (EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP

Initial overall energy intensity of elec using capital INITIAL(Overall energy intensity of elec using capital) (EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP

Initial efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers

INITIAL(Initial elec price * Initial overall energy intensity of elec using capital)

$/GJ*((EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP)

Recent efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers

SMOOTH(Efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers, Consumer time to react to price changes)


Relative efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers

Recent efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers/Initial efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers Dmnl

Direct effect of price on elec demand

This is the curtailment effect. Values of Relative efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers greater than 1 decrease the reference demand of electricity, whereas values less than 1

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsincrease the reference demand. The extent of the increase and decrease depends on the demand elasticity of electricity, where a larger value yields more of a response to price.

MAX(0,1 - Demand elasticity of electricity*(Relative efficiency adjusted price of elec to consumers- 1))

Ratio of elec market price to price basis

This ratio yields the market clearing price according to the demand elasticity of electricity and the ratio of aggregate output to adjusted reference demand. For a given ratio of output to reference demand, a larger elasticity yields less of a response to price.

MAX(0, 1 - (Ratio of agg output to ref demand-1)/Demand elasticity of electricity)

Dmnl

Ratio of agg output to ref demand

The ratio of the total of electricity production to the adjusted reference demand of electricity.

ACTIVE INITIAL(ZIDZ(Aggregate output for elec, SUM(Reference elec demand at adjusted use[EndUseSector!])), 1)

Dmnl

Reference elec demand at adjusted use [EndUseSector]

The reference demand for each end use adjusted for price effects, i.e., curtailment.

Reference elec demand to producers at customary use[EndUseSector]*Direct effect of price on elec demand

EJ/year

Reference agg elec demand at adjusted use SUM(Reference elec demand at adjusted use[EndUseSector!]) EJ/year

Aggregate elec demand to producers

Reference agg elec demand at adjusted use * Ratio of elec agg demand to ref demand EJ/year

Ratio of elec agg demand to ref 1-Demand elasticity of electricity*(Ratio of elec market price to Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitsdemand price basis-1)

Unit profit by source for elec[Resource]

For each electric resource, the net of supplier revenue and variable costs.

Market price of electricity - Instant Variable cost of elec supply[ElecPath]

$/GJ

Profit to capital cost ratio for elec[Resource]

The PCCR is the net unit profit divided by the embodied annualized capital cost.

ZIDZ(Unit profit by source for elec[Resource],Avg embodied fixed cost of elec capacity[ElecPath])

Dmnl

Indicated utilization for elec[Resource]

The indicated utilization according to an increasing S-shaped function based on the PCCR.

MAX(0, MIN(1,ZIDZ(Utiliz max for elec * Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec*EXP(MIN(exp max, Utiliz exponent for elec*Profit to capital cost ratio for elec[Resource])) , (Utiliz max for elec + Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec*(EXP(MIN(exp max,Utiliz exponent for elec*Profit to capital cost ratio for elec[Resource]))-1)))))

Dmnl

Utiliz exponent for elec

Defining the S-shaped curve.

LN(MAX(1, ZIDZ(Utiliz at pos1 PCCR for elec*(Utiliz max for elec-Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec) , (Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec * (Utiliz max for elec-Utiliz at pos1 PCCR for elec)))))

Dmnl

Utiliz max for elec Defining the S-shaped curve.

ZIDZ((2*Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec*Utiliz at pos1 PCCR for elec*Utiliz at neg1 PCCR for elec - Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec^2*(Utiliz at pos1 PCCR for elec+Utiliz at neg1 PCCR for

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitselec)) , (Utiliz at pos1 PCCR for elec*Utiliz at neg1 PCCR for elec - Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec^2))

Src utilization of elec planned[Resource]

The planned utilization of each electric path.

INTEG(Utiliz chg rt for elec[Resource], Initial elec utilization[Resource])

Dmnl

Utiliz chg rt for elec[Resource]

The change in utilization of each electric path based on the indicated utilization and the planned utilization and the time it takes to adjust from the former to the latter. The constraint of Annual utilization change limit prevents integration error from occurring when extreme scenarios outside realistic ranges are tested.

MAX(-Annual utilization change limit, MIN(Annual utilization change limit,

(Indicated utilization for elec[Resource]-Src utilization of elec planned[Resource])/Time to Adj Utilization))

1/year

Constraint of delivered fuel availability[EnergyPath] :EXCEPT: [Only elec paths]

The delivered fuel availability and the source efficiency constrains the amount of electric energy is possible for production. EJ/year

[Elec Thermal]Demand of delivered fuels for elec thermal

consumption[Rnonelec]*Avg efficiency of supply[Elec thermal]

[CCS Paths] Demand of delivered fuels for elec CCS consumption[Rnonelec]*Avg efficiency of supply[CCS Paths]

Constraint of availability[EnergyPath]

For elec thermal and CCS paths, the minimum of the energy possible considering the delivered fuel constraints and the existing electric energy capacity. For the elec only paths, the existing electric energy capacity is the only constraint.

EJ/year

[Elec Thermal plus CCS] MIN(Constraint of delivered fuel availability[Elec thermal plus



Parameter Definition UnitsCCS], Elec Energy supply capacity[Elec thermal plus CCS])

[Only elec paths] Elec Energy supply capacity[Only elec paths]

Elec source utilization constrained [Resource]

For each electric source, the utilization is constrained by the electric energy that could be produced and the existing electric energy capacity to produce it.

ACTIVE INITIAL(ZIDZ(Constraint of availability[ElecPath], Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath]), Src utilization of elec planned[Resource])

Dmnl

Src utilization of elec planned adjusted by policy [ElecPath]

Src utilization of elec planned[Resource]*Policy adjustment to elec utilization[Resource] Dmnl

Policy adjustment to elec utilization[Resource]

Adjusts the utilization of electric sources by noncost policies, starting and stopping in given years.

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Utilization of elec policy stop time[Resource] :OR: Time<Utilization of elec policy start time[Resource], 1, Utilization of elec adjustment factor[Resource])

Elec source utilization [Resource] The utilization of each electric source is that which is planned, constrained by availability, and adjusted for by noncost policies. Dmnl

[Resource] :EXCEPT: [R elec only] Elec source utilization constrained[Resource][R elec only] Src utilization of elec planned adjusted by policy[Only elec paths]

Production for elec[Resource]

The electric energy produced by each resource.

Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath]*Elec source utilization[Resource]

EJ/year

Aggregate output for elecThe sum of electricity produced by all resources.

SUM(Production for elec[Resource!])EJ/year


Table 5-59. Delivered Fuel Market and Utilization Calculated Parameters


Market price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

Market price of each delivered fuel based on market clearing.

Ref market price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*Ratio of delivered fuel market price to reference price[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Market price of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec]

The market price of each fuel that the suppliers receive plus the amount taxed to the consumer.

MAX(Min price, Market price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]+Carbon tax[Rnonelec]-Source subsidy for delivered fuels over time[Rnonelec])

$/GJ

Price to fuel consumer recent[Rnonelec]

SMOOTH(Market price of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec], Consumer time to react to price changes) $/GJ

Overall energy intensity of nonelec using capital [FuelPath]

SUM(Reference fuel intensity of capital[EndUseSector!,FuelPath]*End use shares of nonelec[EndUseSector!, FuelPath])


Initial overall energy intensity of nonelec using capital[FuelPath]

INITIAL(Overall energy intensity of nonelec using capital[FuelPath])) (EJ/Year)/T$ 2011 PPP

Initial efficiency adjusted price of nonelec to consumers[Rnonelec]

INITIAL(Initial price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec] * Initial overall energy intensity of nonelec using capital[FuelPath])


Relative efficiency adjusted price of fuel to consumers[Rnonelec]

Recent efficiency adjusted price of fuel to consumers[Rnonelec]/Initial efficiency adjusted price of nonelec to consumers[Rnonelec]

Dmnl

Fuel consumer ratio of recent to expected price[Rnonelec]

Price to fuel consumer recent[Rnonelec]/Price to fuel consumer accustomed[Rnonelec] Dmnl

Direct effect of price on nonelec fuel demand[Rnonelec]

This is the curtailment effect. Values of Relative efficiency adjusted price of fuel to consumers greater than 1 decrease the reference nonelectric demand of fuel, whereas values less than 1 increase that reference demand. The extent of the increase and decrease depends on the demand elasticity of fuels, where a

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitslarger value yields more of a response to price.

MAX(0, 1 - Demand elasticity of fuels[Rnonelec]*(Relative efficiency adjusted price of fuel to consumers[Rnonelec] - 1))

Ratio of delivered fuel market price to reference price[Rnonelec]

This ratio yields the market clearing price according to the demand elasticity of fuels and the ratio of output to adjusted reference demand. For a given ratio of output to reference demand, a larger elasticity yields less of a response to price.

MAX(0, 1 - (Ratio of fuel output to ref demand [Rnonelec]-1)/Demand elasticity of fuels[Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Ratio of fuel output to ref demand[Rnonelec]

For each fuel, the ratio of fuel production to the adjusted reference demand.

ACTIVE INITIAL(ZIDZ(Production of fuels[Rnonelec], Reference fuel demand at adjusted use[Rnonelec]), 1)

Dmnl

Ratio of fuel output for elec to ref demand for elec[Rnonelec]

For each fuel, the ratio of fuel production available for elec consumption to the reference demand, not to exceed 1.

ACTIVE INITIAL(MIN(1, MAX(0, Production of fuels[Rnonelec])/Reference demand of fuel for elec[Rnonelec]), 1)

Dmnl

Reference fuel demand at adjusted use[Rnonelec]

The reference demand for each fuel as a function of the adjusted reference demand of nonelec consumption and the planned demand of elec consumption.

(Reference demand for nonelec at adjusted use[Rnonelec]+Reference fuel demand for elec thermal[Rnonelec]+Reference fuel demand for elec CCS[Rnonelec])*Policy adjustment to fuel reference demand[Rnonelec]

EJ/year




Reference demand for nonelec at adjusted use[Rnonelec]

The reference demand for the nonelectric consumption of each fuel adjusted for price effects, i.e., curtailment.

Reference fuel demand for nonelec[Rnonelec]*Effect of recent price change on reference fuel demand[Rnonelec]

EJ/year

Reference fuel demand for nonelec[Rnonelec]

The long term fuel demand for nonelectric consumption accounting for losses of fuel.

Reference nonelec energy demand adjusted[Rnonelec]/Avg efficiency of fuel capacity[Rnonelec]

EJ/year

Reference fuel demand for elec thermal[Rnonelec]

The planned demand of electric thermal consumption accounting for losses of fuel and thermal conversions inefficiencies.

Elec Energy supply capacity[Elec thermal]/Avg efficiency of supply[Elec thermal]*Src utilization of elec planned adjusted by policy[Elec thermal]

EJ/year

Reference fuel demand for elec CCS[Rnonelec]

The planned demand of electric CCS consumption accounting for losses of fuel and thermal conversions inefficiencies.

Elec Energy supply capacity[CCS Paths]/Avg efficiency of supply[CCS Paths]*Src utilization of elec planned adjusted by policy[CCS Paths]

EJ/year

Demand of delivered fuels for elec thermal consumption[Rnonelec]

The actual demand of electric thermal consumption with market clearing.

Reference fuel demand for elec thermal[Rnonelec]*Ratio of fuel output for elec to ref demand for elec[Rnonelec]

EJ/year

Demand of delivered fuels for elec CCS consumption[Rnonelec]

The actual demand of electric CCS consumption with market clearing.

EJ/year



Parameter Definition UnitsReference fuel demand for elec CCS [Rnonelec]*Ratio of fuel

output for elec to ref demand for elec[Rnonelec]

Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

The actual demand of fuels with market clearing.

Reference fuel demand at adjusted use[Rnonelec]*Ratio of fuel output to ref demand[Rnonelec]

EJ/year

Demand of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[Rnonelec]

The actual demand of each fuel for nonelectric consumption with market clearing as calculated by the total demand of each fuel minus the actual demand of each fuel for electric consumption.

Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]-Demand of delivered fuels for elec thermal consumption[Rnonelec]-Demand of delivered fuels for elec CCS consumption[Rnonelec]

Supplier net unit revenue for fuels[Rnonelec]

Price that the supplier actually gets; equal to the market price assuming all taxes and subsidies are passed immediately to the consumer.

Market price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Unit profit for fuels[Rnonelec]

For each fuel, the net of revenue and variable costs.

Market price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec] - Instant Variable cost of fuel supply[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Profit to capital cost ratio for fuels[Rnonelec]

The PCCR is the net unit profit divided by the embodied annualized capital cost.

ZIDZ(Unit profit for fuels[Rnonelec],Avg embodied fixed cost of fuel capacity[Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Indicated fuels utilization[Rnonelec]

The indicated utilization according to an increasing S-shaped function based on the PCCR.

Dmnl



Parameter Definition UnitsMAX(0, MIN(1,ZIDZ(Utiliz max by fuel[Rnonelec] * Utiliz at

zero PCCR by fuel [Rnonelec]*EXP(MIN(exp max,Utiliz exponent by fuel [Rnonelec]*Profit to capital cost ratio for fuels[Rnonelec])) , (Utiliz max by fuel [Rnonelec] + Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]*(EXP(MIN(exp max,Utiliz exponent by fuel [Rnonelec]*Profit to capital cost ratio for fuels[Rnonelec]))-1)))))

Utiliz exponent by fuel[Rnonelec]

Defining the S-shaped curve for each fuel.

LN(MAX(1, ZIDZ(Utiliz at pos1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]*(Utiliz max by fuel[Rnonelec]-Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]) ,

(Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec] * (Utiliz max by fuel[Rnonelec]-Utiliz at pos1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec])))))

Dmnl

Utiliz max by fuel[Rnonelec]

Defining the S-shaped curve for each fuel.

ZIDZ((2*Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]*Utiliz at pos1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]*Utiliz at neg1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec] - Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]^2*(Utiliz at pos1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]+Utiliz at neg1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec])) , (Utiliz at pos1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]*Utiliz at neg1 PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec] - Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]^2))

Dmnl

Src utilization of fuels planned[Rnonelec]

The planned delivered fuel utilization of each fuel.

INTEG(Utiliz chg rt of fuels[Rnonelec], Initial fuel utilization from initial PCCR[Rnonelec])

Dmnl

Utiliz chg rt of fuels[Rnonelec] The change in utilization of each delivered fuel based on the indicated utilization and the planned utilization and the time it takes to adjust from the former to the latter. The constraint of

1/year



Parameter Definition UnitsAnnual utilization change limit prevents integration error from occurring when extreme scenarios outside realistic ranges are tested.

MAX(-Annual utilization change limit, MIN(Annual utilization change limit, (Indicated fuels utilization [Rnonelec]-Src utilization of fuels planned[Rnonelec])/Time to Adj Utilization))

Fuel availability[Rnonelec]

The extraction capacity accounting for fuel losses as well as the fuel supply capacity constrain the amount of fuel delivered fuel is possible for production.

MIN(Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*Avg efficiency of fuel capacity[Rnonelec], Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec])

EJ/year

Utilization constrained by fuel availability [Rnonelec]

The available fuel divided by the capacity of fuel constrains fuel utilization.

Fuel availability[Rnonelec]/Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]

EJ/year

Policy adjustment to delivered fuel utilization[Rnonelec]

Adjusts the utilization of delivered fuel by noncost policies, starting and stopping in given years. The min fuel utilization prevents the policy from forcing the demand for a fuel to be 0.

MAX(Min fuel utilization, IF THEN ELSE(Time>Utilization of delivered fuel policy stop time[Rnonelec] :OR: Time<Utilization of delivered fuel policy start time[Rnonelec], 1, Utilization of delivered fuel adjustment factor[Rnonelec]))

Src utilization of fuels[Rnonelec] The utilization of each delivered fuel is the greater of the minimum desired utilization and that which is planned and adjusted for by noncost policies, however constrained by fuel availability.

Dmnl



Parameter Definition UnitsMIN(MAX(0, Src utilization of fuels planned[Rnonelec]*Policy

adjustment to delivered fuel utilization[Rnonelec]),Utilization constrained by fuel availability[Rnonelec])

Production of fuels[Rnonelec]The delivered fuels actually produced.

Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]*Src utilization of fuels[Rnonelec]


Table 5-60. Initialization of Electricity and Delivered fuels Market and Utilization Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsInitial unit profit by source for

elec[Resource] $/GJ

[Resource] :EXCEPT: [R elec only] Initial elec customary price-"Reference O&M cost"[ElecPath]- Delivered fuel costs for elec[ElecPath]

[R elec only] Initial elec customary price-"Reference O&M cost"[Only elec paths]]

Initial elec PCCR[Resource] Initial unit profit by source for elec[Resource]/Reference capital cost[ElecPath] Dmnl

Initial elec utilization from initial PCCR[Resource]

Used to guide estimates of initial utilization for elec.

MAX(0, MIN(1,ZIDZ(Utiliz max for elec * Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec*EXP(MIN(exp max, Utiliz exponent for elec*Initial elec PCCR[Resource])) , (Utiliz max for elec + Utiliz at zero PCCR for elec*(EXP(MIN(exp max,Utiliz exponent for elec*Initial elec PCCR[Resource]))-1)))))

Dmnl

Initial price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

Initial market price of each delivered fuel based on extracted fuel price and an initial markup ratio.

Price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec]*Initial ratio delivered to extracted rice[Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Initial unit profit for fuels[Rnonelec]

Initial price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]-Price of extracted fuel[Rnonelec]-"Reference O&M cost"[FuelPath] $/GJ

Initial fuels PCCR[Rnonelec]

Initial PCCR of fuels based on initial net unit profit for fuels and the inital capital costs. Check to confirm same as Initial delivered fuel PCCR[Rnonelec].

Initial unit profit for fuels[Rnonelec]/Reference capital cost[FuelPath]

Dmnl

Initial fuel utilization from initial MAX(0, MIN(1,ZIDZ(Utiliz max by fuel[Rnonelec] * Utiliz at Dmnl


Table 5-60. Initialization of Electricity and Delivered fuels Market and Utilization Calculated Parameters


PCCR[Rnonelec]

zero PCCR by fuel [Rnonelec]*EXP(MIN(exp max,Utiliz exponent by fuel [Rnonelec]* Initial delivered fuel PCCR[Rnonelec])) , (Utiliz max by fuel [Rnonelec] + Utiliz at zero PCCR by fuel[Rnonelec]*(EXP(MIN(exp max,Utiliz exponent by fuel [Rnonelec]*Initial delivered fuel PCCR[Rnonelec]))-1)))))


Table 5-61 Energy Dispatch Summary Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsEnergy to meet demand by

path[EnergyPath]The energy consumed from each path. Accounts for T&D losses

but not efficiencies. EJ/year

[ElecPath] Production for elec[Resource][FuelPath] Demand met by nonelec consumption[FuelPath]

Demand met by nonelec consumption[FuelPath]

Demand of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[Rnonelec]*Avg efficiency of fuel capacity[Rnonelec]

Demand met by aggregated paths[EnergyPath]

The energy consumed from each path, with the CCS Paths aggregated with their nonCCS counterpart. Accounts for T&D losses but not efficiencies.

EJ/year

[Elec thermal] Energy to meet demand by path[Elec thermal]+Energy to meet demand by path[CCS Paths]

[CCS Paths] 0[Only elec paths] Energy to meet demand by path[Only elec paths]

[FuelPath] Energy to meet demand by path[FuelPath]

Demand met by resource[Resource]

The energy consumed from each path, mapped by resource. Accounts for T&D losses but not efficiencies.

VECTOR SELECT(Path resource definition[EnergyPath!,Resource],Energy to meet demand by path[EnergyPath!],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

EJ/Year

Primary energy by path[EnergyPath]

Primary energy demand, based on energy to meet demand and efficiency of each energy path, with the CCS Paths aggregated with their nonCCS counterpart.

Energy to meet demand by path[EnergyPath]/Efficiency[EnergyPath]

EJ/Year

Primary energy by aggregated path[EnergyPath]

Primary energy demand, based on energy to meet demand and efficiency of each energy path, with the CCS Paths aggregated

EJ/year


Table 5-61 Energy Dispatch Summary Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Unitswith their nonCCS counterpart.

[Elec thermal] Primary energy by path[Elec thermal]+Primary energy by path[CCS Paths]

[CCS Paths] 0[Only elec paths] Primary energy by path[Only elec paths]

[FuelPath] Primary energy by path[FuelPath]


5.2.2 Tax and Subsidy Adjustments to Market Price

The model assumes that a carbon tax and all source tax/subsidy adjustments of each fuel will be passed along immediately to the consumer of that fuel. As such, the adjustment is applied directly to the consumer. On the electric production side, the source adjustment is passed along immediately to the electric consumer of each resource. The aggregate cost of electricity to the consumer is then the weighted average of the market price for each resource and the amount of energy produced.


Figure 5.45 Structure of Carbon Tax

Carbon tax per GJ

Carbon tax phase1 start

Carbon tax initialtarget

GJ per TJ

Carbon tax annualchange time to level

Carbon tax pertonCO2

<Carbon tax phase3 start>

<Time>

Carbon tax annualchange Actual emissions price

percent annual increase

Carbon tax intimeIncrease in

carbon tax

<100 percent>

Emissions costin kWh

<J per sec perMW>

<KW per MW>

<seconds perhour>

Carbon tax time toachieve initial target

GJ per MCF

Gallon gasolineper Mtoe

<Factor to approach fullexponential change>

Carbon tax finaltarget

Carbon tax time toachieve final target

Actual carbon taxphase 1



<Carbon tax phase3 start><Time>

<Carbon tax phase1 start>

Averageemissions cost

<TIME STEP>

GJ per gallon<Mtoe per TJ>

GJ per kWh

<J per GJ><kWh unit>

Emissions cost inMCF

Emissions cost pergallon gasoline

Total emissions cost <GJ per EJ>

<Primary energydemand by resource>

<Carbon intensity ofresource>


Table 5-62 Source Tax/Subsidy Parameter Inputs


Source subsidy for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

An increase in net revenue for delivered fuels due to government subsidies (positive values) or decrease due to government burdens (negative values).

-10-10 0 $/GJ

Source subsidy for delivered fuels phase 2[Rnonelec]

Phase 2 of an increase in net revenue for delivered fuels due to government subsidies (positive values) or decrease due to government burdens (negative values).

-10-10 0 $/GJ

Source subsidy for delivered fuels start time[Rnonelec]

The year when a subsidy begins applying.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Start year for subsidy for delivered fuels phase 2

The year when phase 2 of a subsidy begins applying.

2017-2100 2100 Year

Source subsidy for delivered fuels stop time[Rnonelec]

The year when a source subsidy stops applying.

2017-2100 2100 Year

Historic subsidies for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]

Allows for inclusion of historic subsidies. 0-10 0 $/GJ

Phase out of historic subsidies

Time to phase out historic subsidies for delivered fuels starting in 2013 when available BP data stops. 1-100 10

Years

Source subsidy to electric producers[Resource]

An increase in net revenue for electric producers due to government subsidies (positive values) or decrease due to government burdens (negative values).

-10-10 0 $/GJ

Source subsidy to electric producers phase 2[Resource]

Phase 2 of an increase in net revenue for electric producers due to government subsidies (positive values) or decrease due to government burdens (negative values).

-10-10 0 $/GJ


Source subsidy to electric producers start time[Resource]

The year when a subsidy begins applying.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Start year for subsidy to electric producers phase 2

The year when phase 2 of a subsidy begins applying.

2017-2100 2100 Year

Source subsidy to electric producers stop time[Resource]

The year when a source subsidy stops applying.

2017-2100 2100 Year

Apply delivered fuels source subsidy to electric

Applies the same source subsidy over time to electric thermal as specified for delivered fuels of corresponding fuel. 1 0-1

Dmnl


Table 5-63 Source Tax/Subsidy Calculated Parameters


Historic source subsidy[Rnonelec]Historic subsidies for delivered fuels[Rnonelec] - ramp(Historic

subsidies for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]/Phase out of historic subsidies, y2015 , y2015+Phase out of historic subsidies)

$/GJ

Source subsidy for delivered fuels over time[Rnonelec]

Source subsidy/tax over time.

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Source subsidy for delivered fuels stop time[Rnonelec], 0, IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for subsidy for delivered fuels phase 2, ramp(Source subsidy for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]/Source subsidy ramp time, Source subsidy for delivered fuels start time[Rnonelec], Source subsidy for delivered fuels start time[Rnonelec]+Source subsidy ramp time), Source subsidy for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]+ramp((Source subsidy for delivered fuels phase 2[Rnonelec]-Source subsidy for delivered fuels[Rnonelec])/Source subsidy ramp time, Start year for subsidy for delivered fuels phase 2, Start year for subsidy for delivered fuels phase 2+Source subsidy ramp time)))+Historic source subsidy [Rnonelec]

$/GJ

Source subsidy to electric producers over time raw[Resource]

Applies the specified source subsidy after the start time until the stop time.

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Source subsidy to electric producers stop time[Resource], 0, IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for subsidy to electric producers phase 2, ramp(Source subsidy to electric producers[Resource]/Source subsidy ramp time, Source subsidy to electric producers start time[Resource], Source subsidy to electric producers start time[Resource]+Source subsidy ramp time), Source subsidy to electric producers[Resource]+ramp((Source subsidy to electric producers phase 2[Resource]-Source subsidy to electric

$/GJ


Table 5-63 Source Tax/Subsidy Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Unitsproducers[Resource])/Source subsidy ramp time, Start year for subsidy to electric producers phase 2, Start year for subsidy to electric producers phase 2+Source subsidy ramp time)))

Source subsidy to electric producers over time[Resource]

Source subsidy/tax over time. For electric thermal sources, defaults to use the same subsidy/tax as for delivered fuels of corresponding fuel.

$/GJ

[Rnonelec]IF THEN ELSE(Apply delivered fuels source subsidy to electric,

Source subsidy for delivered fuels over time[Rnonelec], Source subsidy to electric producers over time raw[Rnonelec])

[Resource] :EXCEPT: [Rnonelec] Source subsidy to electric producers over time raw[Resource]


Table 5-64 Carbon Tax and Electric Subsidy Parameter Inputs


Carbon tax initial target

The price per ton of CO2 emitted. This could be implemented by a carbon tax to the consumer. 0-100 0

$/TonCO2

Carbon tax phase 1 startYear to start on path to achieve initial carbon tax.

2017-2100 2017 Year

Carbon tax time to achieve initial targetTime to linearly achieve full initial carbon tax. 1-20 10 Years

Carbon tax annual change Initial percent increase of carbon tax. -5-5 0Percent/year

Carbon tax annual change time to levelTime to exponentially reduce the rate increase to 0%. 1-5000 100 Year

Carbon tax final target

Final emissions target to be achieved linearly, starting from its level at the Carbon tax phase 3 start, in the time specified by the Carbon tax time to achieve final target. 0-1000 0

$/TonCO2

Carbon tax time to achieve final target

Time to achieve the Carbon tax final target starting from the Carbon tax phase 3 start. 1-100 20

Year

Carbon tax phase 3 start

Year that the emissions start on the path to the final emissions target, to be achieved linearly in the years specified by the Carbon tax time to achieve final target.

2017-2100 2100

Year

Factor to approach full exponential change Adjustment to reach full exponential change by the specified time 3 Dmnl

Subsidy to electric consumers

Positive values indicate a subsidy to electric consumers; negative values indicate a tax to electric consumers -10-20 0

$/GJ


Table 5-64 Carbon Tax and Electric Subsidy Parameter Inputs


Subsidy to electric consumers phase 2

Positive values indicate a subsidy to electric consumers; negative values indicate a tax to electric consumers -10-20 0

$/GJ

Subsidy to electric consumers start timeStart of phase 1 of electric consumer subsidy

2017-2100 2100 Year

Start year for subsidy to electric consumers phase 2

Start of phase 2 of electric consumer subsidy

2017-2100 2100 Year

Subsidy to electric consumers stop timeStop time of any electric consumer subsidy

2017-2100 2100 Year


Table 5-65 Carbon Tax and Electric Subsidy Calculated Parameters


Carbon tax per GJ [Resource] Cost of emissions with an emission price on carbon, based on carbon density of source. $/GJ

[Resource] :EXCEPT: [R elec only] Carbon tax per tonCO2*Carbon intensity of resource [Resource]/GJ per TJ

[R elec only] 0

Carbon tax per tonCO2

Carbon tax based on the three potential phases.In En-ROADS Pro, to test the EMF22 Scenarios, the average of the

EMF22 models with available carbon price projections overrides the specified carbon tax.

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Carbon tax phase 3 start, Actual carbon tax phase 3, IF THEN ELSE(Time>Carbon tax phase 1 start+Carbon tax time to achieve initial target, Actual carbon tax phase 2, Actual carbon tax phase 1))

En-ROADS PRO: IF THEN ELSE(EMF scenario>=0, Calibration weighted average carbon price avg, IF THEN ELSE(Time>Carbon tax phase 3 start, Actual carbon tax phase 3, IF THEN ELSE(Time>Carbon tax phase 1 start+Carbon tax time to achieve initial target, Actual carbon tax phase 2, Actual carbon tax phase 1)))

$/TonCO2

Actual carbon tax phase 1

Linear increase from 0 at Carbon tax phase 1 start and reaching the Carbon tax initial target in the time specified by Carbon tax time to achieve initial target.

ramp(Carbon tax initial target/Carbon tax time to achieve initial target

, Carbon tax phase 1 start,Carbon tax phase 1 start+Carbon tax time to achieve initial target)

$/TonCO2





Carbon tax in time, starting with the Carbon tax initial target (excluding the ramp up to it) and leveling at the Carbon tax phase 3 start.

Carbon tax in time

$/TonCO2


Carbon tax in time including the linear change from the price at Carbon tax phase 3 start to the Carbon tax final target to be reached in the time specified.

Carbon tax in time-ramp((Carbon tax in time-Carbon tax final target)/Carbon tax time to achieve final target, Carbon tax phase 3 start, Carbon tax phase 3 start+Carbon tax time to achieve final target)

$/TonCO2

Carbon tax in time

Carbon tax in time, starting with the Carbon tax initial target (excluding the ramp up to it) and leveling at the Carbon tax phase 3 start.

INTEG(Increase in carbon tax, 0)

$/TonCO2

Increase in carbon tax

Change in carbon tax during Phase 2.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<Carbon tax phase 1 start+Carbon tax time to achieve initial target:OR: Time>=Carbon tax phase 3 start, 0, IF THEN ELSE(Time=Carbon tax phase 1 start+Carbon tax time to achieve initial target, Carbon tax initial target/TIME STEP, Actual carbon tax percent annual increase/"100 percent"*Carbon tax in time))

$/TonCO2/Year

Actual carbon tax percent annual increase

Annual percent change in carbon tax, starting with the specified Carbon tax annual change, leveling off (percent change of 0) in the time specified by Carbon tax annual change time to level.

Percent/year



Parameter Definition UnitsCarbon tax annual change-Carbon tax annual change*(1-EXP(-

(MAX(0, Time-Carbon tax phase 1 start-Carbon tax time to achieve initial target))/(Carbon tax annual change time to level/Factor to approach full exponential change)))

Total emissions cost SUM(Carbon tax for delivered fuels[Rnonelec!]*Primary Energy Demand by aggregated resource[Rnonelec!])*GJ per EJ $/GJ

Emissions cost in kWh[Rnonelec[ Carbon tax [Rnonelec]*GJ per kWh $/kWhEmissions cost in MCF[Rnonelec] Carbon tax [Rnonelec]*GJ per MCF $/MCFEmissions cost per gallon

gasoline[Rnonelec] Carbon tax [Rnonelec]*GJ per gallon $/gallon gasoline

Subsidy to electric consumers over time

IF THEN ELSE(Time>Subsidy to electric consumers stop time, 0, IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for subsidy to electric consumers phase 2, ramp(Subsidy to electric consumers/Source subsidy ramp time, Subsidy to electric consumers start time, Subsidy to electric consumers start time+Source subsidy ramp time), Subsidy to electric consumers+ramp((Subsidy to electric consumers phase 2-Subsidy to electric consumers)/Source subsidy ramp time, Start year for subsidy to electric consumers phase 2, Start year for subsidy to electric consumers phase 2+Source subsidy ramp time)))

$/GJ


5.2.3 Ratio of Actual to Expected Energy Costs to Consumers

As defined in Section 3.3, the early discarding of energy consuming capital can be vintage-specific and depends on the ratio of intensity of each vintage to the total. The actual cost to consumers to use energy consuming capital is a function of the current market price to consumers of that energy and the embodied energy intensity of that capital. The expected energy cost to consumers is the embodied market price to consumers of that energy and the average embodied intensity.


Figure 5.46 Expected Cost of Energy to Consumer Initialization

Initial cost to consumerof electric capital 1

<Effective vintage 1lifetime>


1>




2>




3>Historic elec priceimprovement rate


Initial cost to consumerof nonelec fuel 1


fuel 1>



fuel 2>



fuel 3>

<Historic elec priceimprovement rate>

<Market price of deliveredfuels for nonelecconsumption>

Historic fuel costimprovement rate





Figure 5.47 Structure of Expected Costs to Consumers of Electricity

Cost to consumerof elec energy for

capital 1Cost to consumer ofincreasing elec energy req

Cost to consumer ofelec aging 1 to 2

Cost to consumer ofelec retrofitting 1


capital 2


capital 3Cost to consumer ofelec aging 2 to 3

Cost to consumer ofelec retiring



Cost to consumer ofelec discarding 1



Average cost touse elec 1



<Increasing elecenergy req>

<Initial cost to consumerof electric capital 1>




1>


2>


3>




<Elec energy aging1 to 2>

<Elec energy aging2 to 3>

<Elec energyretiring>





<Average cost touse elec 1>




Figure 5.48 Structure of Expected Costs to Consumers of Fuel for Nonelectric Consumption

Cost to consumerof fuel for capital 1

Cost to consumer ofincreasing nonelec fuel req

Cost to consumer ofnonelec fuel aging 1 to 2

Cost to consumer ofnonelec fuel retrofitting 1

Cost to consumerof fuel for capital 2

Cost to consumerof fuel for capital 3Cost to consumer of

nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3Cost to consumer of

fuel retiring

Cost to consumer ofnonelec fuel retrofitting 2

Cost to consumer offuel retrofitting 3

Cost to consumer ofnonelec fuel discarding 1



Average cost to usenonelec fuel 1



<Initial cost toconsumer of nonelec

fuel 1>


fuel 2>


fuel 3>

<IncreasingNonelec fuel req>

<Market price of refinedfuels to consumers>


by fuel 1>


by fuel 2>


by fuel 3>




<Nonelec fuelaging 1 to 2>

<Nonelec fuelaging 2 to 3>

<Nonelec fuelretiring>




<Average cost to usenonelec fuel 1>




Table 5-66. Expected Costs to Consumer of Electric Energy Calculated Parameters


Initial cost to consumer of electric capital 1[EndUseSector]

The initial expected annual cost of energy for vintage 1 electric capital assuming a Historic elec price improvement rate of 0, i.e., costs relatively stable for the period from the time of installation to the initial time of 1990.

INITIAL(Market price of elec to consumers*Elec energy requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector]*EXP(Historic elec price improvement rate*Effective vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)



INITIAL(Cost to consumer of elec to consumers*Elec energy requirements of capital 2[EndUseSector]*EXP(Historic elec price improvement rate*Effective vintage 2 lifetime[EndUseSector]))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)



INITIAL(Cost to consumer of elec to consumers*Elec energy requirements of capital 3[EndUseSector]*EXP(Historic elec price improvement rate*Effective vintage 3 lifetime[EndUseSector]))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Cost to consumer of elec energy for For each end use, the expected cost of electric energy required of ($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Figure 5.49 Structure of Actual versus Expected Costs to Use Energy

Cost of energy byend use

Ratio of actual toexpected costs by end

use

Expected cost ofenergy by end use


use>

<Demand of electricityto producers>

<Demand of fuel fornonelec consumption by

enduse>

<Market price ofelectricity>

<Market price ofdelivered fuels for

nonelec consumption>

<Average intensity ofenergy demand to

producers 1>

Ratio of intensity ofvintage 1 to total

<Embodied intensity of energydemand to producers of capital

by end use>


<Average intensity of energydemand to producers 2>


<Average intensity of energydemand to producers 3>

Ratio of actual to expectedcosts by end use of vintage 1



<Embodied intensity of energydemand to producers of capital

by end use>

Total cost to consumer ofelec energy for capital

<Cost to consumer offuel for capital 1>



Total cost to consumer of eachfuel to use nonelectric

consuming capital

<Cost to consumer ofelec energy for capital 1>



<Reference elec demand toproducers without policy>




capital 1[EndUseSector]

capital in vintage 1, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Cost to consumer of increasing elec energy req[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec discarding 1[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec retrofitting 1[EndUseSector], Initial cost to consumer of electric capital 1[EndUseSector])

Cost to consumer of elec energy for capital 2[EndUseSector]

For each end use, the expected cost of electric energy required of capital in vintage 2, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Cost to consumer of elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec discarding 2[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec retrofitting 2[EndUseSector], Initial cost to consumer of electric capital 2[EndUseSector])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Cost to consumer of elec energy for capital 3[EndUseSector]

For each end use, the expected cost of electric energy required of capital in vintage 3, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Cost to consumer of elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec discarding 3[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec retiring[EndUseSector]-Cost to consumer of elec retrofitting 3[EndUseSector], Initial cost to consumer of electric capital 3[EndUseSector])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Cost to consumer of increasing elec energy req[EndUseSector]

Cost to consumer of electric energy requirements of capital that is installed for each end use.

Increasing elec energy req[EndUseSector]*Cost to consumer of elec to consumers


Cost to consumer of elec aging 1 to Expected cost to consumer of electric energy requirements of ($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)/Year




2[EndUseSector]

capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Average cost to use elec 1[EndUseSector]*Elec energy aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]

Cost to consumer of elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]

Expected cost to consumer of electric energy requirements of capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.

Average cost to use elec 2[EndUseSector]*Elec energy aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]


Cost to consumer of elec retiring[EndUseSector]

Expected cost to consumer of electric energy requirements of capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

Average cost to use elec 3[EndUseSector]*Elec energy retiring[EndUseSector]


Cost to consumer of elec retrofitting 1[EndUseSector]

The decrease in expected cost of electric energy required of vintage 1 from the originally installed capital due to retrofitting.

Average cost to use elec 1[EndUseSector]*Retrofitting of elec 1[EndUseSector]













Cost to consumer of elec discarding 1[EndUseSector]

The decrease in expected cost of electric energy required for vintage 1 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.

Average cost to use elec 1[EndUseSector]*Elec energy discarding 1[EndUseSector]










Average cost to use elec 1[EndUseSector]

Average of expected cost of electric energy required per dollar of vintage 1 capital, including any retrofits.

Cost to consumer of elec energy for capital 1[EndUseSector]/Elec energy requirements of capital 1[EndUseSector]

$/GJ




$/GJ



$/GJ


Table 5-67. Expected Costs to Consumer of Delivered Fuel for Nonelectric Consumption Calculated Parameters


Expected costs of fuel for nonelec energy [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Expected cost to consumer of each fuel for nonelectric consumption of each end use.

ZIDZ(Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Nonelec fuel requirements by end use[EndUseSector, FuelPath])

$/GJ

Initial cost to consumer of nonelec fuel 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The initial expected annual cost of energy for vintage 1 nonelectric capital assuming a Historic fuel price improvement rate of 0, i.e., costs relatively stable for the period from the time of installation to the initial time of 1990.

INITIAL(Cost to consumer of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec]*Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath] *EXP(Historic fuel cost improvement rate[Rnonelec]*Effective vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Initial cost to consumer of nonelec fuel 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The initial expected annual cost of energy for vintage 2 nonelectric capital assuming a Historic fuel price improvement rate of 0, i.e., costs relatively stable for the period from the time of installation to the initial time of 1990.

INITIAL(Cost to consumer of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec]*Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath] *EXP(Historic fuel cost improvement rate[Rnonelec]*(Effective vintage 1 lifetime[EndUseSector]+Effective vintage 2 lifetime[EndUseSector])))

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Initial cost to consumer of nonelec The initial expected annual cost of energy for vintage 3 nonelectric ($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)




fuel 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

capital assuming a Historic fuel price improvement rate of 0, i.e., costs relatively stable for the period from the time of installation to the initial time of 1990.

INITIAL(Cost to consumer of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec]*Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath] *EXP(Historic fuel cost improvement rate[Rnonelec]*Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector]))

Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

For each end use, the expected cost of each fuel required of nonelectric capital in vintage 1, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Cost to consumer of increasing nonelec fuel req[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel retrofitting 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial cost to consumer of nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

For each end use, the expected cost of each fuel required of nonelectric capital in vintage 2, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel discarding 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel retrofitting 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath], Initial cost to consumer of nonelec fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Cost to consumer of fuel for capital For each end use, the expected cost of each fuel required of ($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)




3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]

nonelectric capital in vintage 3, including any retrofits.

INTEG(Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel discarding 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of fuel retiring[EndUseSector, FuelPath]-Cost to consumer of fuel retrofitting 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath], Initial cost to consumer of nonelec fuel 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

Cost to consumer of increasing nonelec fuel req [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Cost to consumer of each fuel required of nonelectric capital that is installed for each end use.

Increasing Nonelec fuel req[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Cost to consumer of delivered fuels to consumers[Rnonelec]


Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Expected cost to consumer of each fuel required of nonelectric capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 1 into vintage 2.

Average cost to use nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]


Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Expected cost to consumer of each fuel required of nonelectric capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 2 into vintage 3.

Average cost to use nonelec fuel 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]


Cost to consumer of fuel retiring [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Expected cost to consumer of each fuel required of nonelectric capital with any retrofits moving from vintage 3 to no longer being used.

Average cost to use nonelec fuel




Parameter Definition Units3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Nonelec fuel retiring[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel retrofitting 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The decrease in expected cost of each fuel required of nonelectric capital in vintage 1 from the originally installed capital due to retrofitting.

Average cost to use nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]*Retrofitting of nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]


Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel retrofitting 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]




Cost to consumer of fuel retrofitting 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]




Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel discarding 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The decrease in expected cost of each fuel required of nonelectric capital in vintage 1 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.

Average cost to use nonelec fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]*Nonelec fuel discarding 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]


Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel The decrease in expected cost of each fuel required of nonelectric ($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)/Year




discarding 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

capital in vintage 2 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.


Cost to consumer of nonelec fuel discarding 3 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

The decrease in expected cost of each fuel required of nonelectric capital in vintage 3 due to the amount of capital with any retrofits in this vintage lost due to early retirement.



Average cost to use nonelec fuel 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Average of expected cost of each fuel required per dollar of vintage 1 nonelectric capital, including any retrofits.

ZIDZ(Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath], Nonelec energy requirements of capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath])

$/GJ




$/GJ




$/GJ


Table 5-68. Ratio of Expected Costs to Consumer of Delivered Fuel for Nonelectric Consumption Calculated Parameters


Cost of energy by end use[EndUseSector]

(Market price of electricity*Demand of electricity to producers[EndUseSector]+ SUM(Market price of delivered fuels for nonelec consumption[FuelPath!]*Demand of fuel for nonelec consumption by enduse[EndUseSector,FuelPath!])) / (Demand of electricity to producers[EndUseSector]+SUM(Demand of fuel for nonelec consumption by enduse[EndUseSector,FuelPath!]))

$/GJ

Expected cost of energy by end use[EndUseSector]

(Total cost to consumer of elec energy for capital[EndUseSector]+SUM(Total cost to consumer of each fuel to use nonelectric consuming capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath!]))/(Reference elec demand to producers without policy[EndUseSector]+SUM(Nonelec fuel requirements by end use [EndUseSector,FuelPath!]))

$/GJ

Total cost to consumer of each fuel to use nonelectric consuming capital [EndUseSector, FuelPath]

Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]+Cost to consumer of fuel for capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Total cost to consumer of elec energy for capital [EndUseSector]

Cost to consumer of elec energy for capital 1[EndUseSector]+Cost to consumer of elec energy for capital 2[EndUseSector]+Cost to consumer of elec energy for capital 3[EndUseSector]

($/GJ)*(EJ/Year)

Expected cost of energy by end use[EndUseSector]

(Total cost to consumer of elec energy for capital[EndUseSector]+SUM(Total cost to consumer of each fuel to use nonelectric consuming capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath!]))/(Reference elec demand to producers without policy[EndUseSector]+SUM(Nonelec fuel requirements by end use [EndUseSector,FuelPath!]))

($/GJ)

Ratio of actual to expected costs by end use of vintage 1[EndUseSector]

Ratio of actual to expected costs by end use[EndUseSector]*Ratio of intensity of vintage 1 to total[EndUseSector] Dmnl

Ratio of actual to expected costs by Ratio of actual to expected costs by end use[EndUseSector]*Ratio Dmnl


Table 5-68. Ratio of Expected Costs to Consumer of Delivered Fuel for Nonelectric Consumption Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Unitsend use of vintage 2[EndUseSector] of intensity of vintage 2 to total[EndUseSector]

Ratio of actual to expected costs by end use of vintage 3[EndUseSector]

Ratio of actual to expected costs by end use[EndUseSector]*Ratio of intensity of vintage 3 to total[EndUseSector] Dmnl

Ratio of actual to expected costs by end use[EndUseSector]

Cost of energy by end use[EndUseSector]/Expected cost of energy by end use[EndUseSector] Dmnl

Ratio of intensity of vintage 1 to total[EndUseSector]

Average intensity of energy demand to producers 1[EndUseSector]/Embodied intensity of energy demand to producers of capital by end use[EndUseSector]

Dmnl



Dmnl



Dmnl


6. Investment Formulation

The Investment sector calculates annual revenue and variable costs based on the energy used and the annual fixed cost based on capacity. It also calculates the government costs of subsidies and revenue from taxes.


Figure 6.50 Structure of Absolute Revenue, Costs, and Profits

Absolute cost ofenergy

GJ per EJ

Cost of energyper GJ

<Total energy tomeet demand>

Gross margin

Absolute revenueBillion dollars

<Avg embodied fixedcost of elec capacity>

Unit gross margin

Absolute annualizedcapital cost

Adjusted absolutecost of energy


Absoluteadjustments to costs

Adjusted cost ofenergy per GJ

Government netrevenue fromadjustments

Government costfor subsidies

Government revenuefrom taxes

Government revenue fromcarbon and source taxes

Government cost forsubsidies by path

<Carbon tax>


<Billion dollars>

<GJ per EJ>

Government cumulative netrevenue from adjustments


<Avg embodied fixedcost of fuel capacity>

<Instant Variable costof elec supply>

<Instant Variable costof fuel supply> Absolute variable

cost


time>



<Source subsidies toextractors>


<Electricityproduction>

<Billion dollars>

<Absolute annualizedcapital cost>

<Absolutevariable cost>

<Billion dollars>

<GJ per EJ>

<Billion dollars>


<Billion dollars>

<Production forelec>


<Electricityproduction>

<GJ per EJ>

<Government costfor subsidies>



<Source subsidies toextractors>



time>


<Market price ofdelivered fuels>

<Market price ofelectricity>


Table 6-69 Investment Sector Calculated Parameters


Absolute revenue[EnergyPath] Absolute revenue that the supplier of a given source receives based on the unit supplier price and the energy utilized. Billion $/Year

[FuelPath] Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*Market price of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

[ElecPath] Production for elec[Resource]*Market price of electricity*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Absolute variable cost[EnergyPath]

Absolute variable cost to use energy from a given source based on the unit average variable costs and the energy utilized. This differs from the absolute capital costs which are based on the energy capacity.

Billion $/Year

[FuelPath] Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*Instant Variable cost of fuel supply[Rnonelec]*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

[ElecPath] Production for elec[Resource]*Instant Variable cost of elec supply[ElecPath]*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Absolute annualized capital cost[EnergyPath]

Absolute capital cost for energy capacity of a given source based on the unit average capital costs and the actual capacity. This differs from the absolute variable costs which are based on the energy utilized.

Avg embodied fixed cost of supply[EnergyPath]*Actual supply capacity[EnergyPath]*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Billion $/Year

Absolute adjustments to costs[EnergyPath]

Absolute cost of carbon and source taxes, less subsidies, to produce energy from a given source based on the unit costs and the energy utilized.

Billion $/Year

[FuelPath] Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*(Adjustment to energy costs[FuelPath])*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

[ElecPath] Production for elec[Resource]*(Adjustment to energy costs[ElecPath])*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Adjustment to energy Unit cost of carbon and source taxes, less subsidies, to produce $/GJ



Parameter Definition Unitscosts[EnergyPath] energy from a given source.

[FuelPath] Carbon tax for delivered fuels[Rnonelec]-Source subsidy for delivered fuels over time[Rnonelec]

[ElecPath] -Source subsidy to electric producers over time[Resource]

Adjusted absolute cost of energy[EnergyPath]

The total cost of energy per unit of energy used to meet demand.

Absolute var cost[EnergyPath]+Absolute annualized capital cost[EnergyPath]+Absolute adjustments to costs[EnergyPath]

Billion $/Year

Absolute cost of energy[EnergyPath]

The absolute cost of energy.

Absolute var cost[EnergyPath]+Absolute annualized capital cost[EnergyPath]

Billion $/Year

Cost of energy per GJ


SUM(Absolute cost of energy[EnergyPath!])/Total energy to meet demand/GJ per EJ*Billion dollars

$/GJ

Adjusted cost of energy per GJ


SUM(Adjusted absolute cost of energy[EnergyPath!])/Total energy to meet demand/GJ per EJ*Billion dollars

$/GJ

Government revenue from carbon and source taxes [EnergyPath]

Absolute revenue to government from carbon and source taxes to produce or use energy from a given source based on the unit costs and the energy utilized.

Billion $/Year

[FuelPath]

Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec]*(Carbon tax[Rnonelec]-MIN(0, Source subsidies to extractors[Rnonelec])-MIN(0, Source subsidy for delivered fuels over time[Rnonelec]))*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

[ElecPath]-MIN(0, Source subsidy to electric producers over

time[Resource])*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars*Production for elec[Resource]




Government cost for subsidies by path[EnergyPath]

Absolute cost of government to pay for subsidies to use energy from a given source based on the unit costs and the energy utilized.

Energy to meet demand by path[EnergyPath]*(MAX(0, Source subsidy timed[Resource]))*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Billion $/Year

Government revenue from taxes

The total revenue to the government from emissions price and taxes to meet energy demand.

SUM(Government revenue from carbon and source taxes[EnergyPath!])-MIN(0, Subsidy to electric consumers over time)*Electricity production*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Billion $/Year

Government cost for subsidies

The total costs of the government to pay for subsidies to use energy.

SUM(SUM(Government cost for subsidies by path[EnergyPath!])+MAX(0, Subsidy to electric consumers over time)*Electricity production*GJ per EJ/Billion dollars

Billion $/Year

Government net revenue from adjustments Government revenue from taxes-Government cost for subsidies Billion $/Year

Government cumulative net revenue from adjustments INTEG(Government net revenue from adjustments, 0) Billion $

Gross margin[EnergyPath]

The annual net cash flow for each source after the capital costs are paid up front, i.e., absolute revenue minus absolute variable costs.

(Absolute revenue[EnergyPath]-Absolute var cost [EnergyPath])*Billion dollars

$/Year

Unit gross margin[EnergyPath] The unit gross margin based on the actual capacity for each source. $/EJ



Parameter Definition UnitsZIDZ(Gross margin[EnergyPath],Actual supply

capacity[EnergyPath])


7. Emissions Formulation

Energy drives the primary source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), of which CO2 is the largest fraction of total CO2 equivalent annual emissions. However, En-ROADS models the emissions more generally of well-mixed GHGs, including CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6, and HFCs, the source of each potentially from energy production, energy-consuming capital, agriculture, and waste. The overview of this sector is shown in Figure 7.51. Section 7.1 through 7.3 provide information on each of the types of emissions. Land use CO2 emissions are currently handled separately, as discussed in Section 7.4.

Figure 7.51 Emissions Sector Overview

GHG emissions byemissions source type

<GHG emissionsfrom agriculture>

GHG emissions fromenergy consumption

<GHG emissionsfrom waste>

CH4 emissions byemissions source

<GWP of CH4>

<TonCO2 perGtonCO2>

N2O emissions byemissions source

<GWP of N2O>

<N2O per N><ton per Mton>

PFC emissions byemissions source

<GWP of PFC>

<TonCO2 perGtonCO2>

SF6 emissions byemissions source

<GWP of SF6>HFC emissions byemissions source

Total GHGemissions bysource type

<GHG total emissions fromenergy production capacity

construction>

<GHG totalemissions from

energy use><GHG total emissions

from extraction capacityconstruction>

GHG total emissionsfrom energy production

use<GHG emissions fromuse of extracted fuel>

GHG total emissions fromproduction capacity

construction

GHG emissions fromenergy production

capacity<GHG emissions fromproduction capacity>


by end use

<GHG emissions fromconsumption capital

construction>

<GHG emissions fromextracted fuel capacity>

<GHG emissions fromuse of consumption

capital>

CO2 emissions byemissions source

CO2 emissionstotal from sources

GHG total emissionsfrom energy production


7.1 Emissions from Energy Production

Energy production emissions include those from production capacity, production capacity construction, and from production use. Each of these sources applies to extracted fuel, delivered fuel, and electricity generation from each power source. As shown in Figure 7.52, emissions from energy use depend on the energy intensity, the efficiency of, losses from, and energy produced by each source, i.e., primary energy. The emissions intensity is a measure of GHGs emitted per amount of energy produced. Energy production capacity emissions default to CH4; energy production construction emissions default to CO2; and energy production use emissions default to CO2, CH4, and N2O. However, each phase of production is a potential source of each GHG, subject to the user’s assumptions.

7.2 Emissions from Energy Consuming Capital

Emissions from energy consuming include those from the end use capital, the construction of that capital, and the use of that capital. Consumption capital capacity and use emissions default primarily to PFCs, SF6, and HFCs. However, industry end use capital also emits CH4 and N2O. The construction of energy consuming capital defaults to CO2 emissions only. However, each phase of end use capital is a potential source of each GHG, subject to the user’s assumptions.

7.3 Emissions from Agriculture and Waste

Emissions from agriculture and waste depend on the production ratio, i.e., how much is produced, and the GHG intensity of that which is produced. While agriculture and waste sources default to emit only CH4 and N2O, they are also a potential source of each GHG, subject to the user’s assumptions.


Figure 7.52 CO2 Emissions from Delivered Fuel and Electricity Generation Use

CO2 intensity ofenergy production bio

CO2 intensity ofenergy production

coal


hydroCO2 intensity of

energy productiongas


new tech


nuclear

CO2 intensity ofenergy production oil


renewables


Original CO2intensity of resource

<100 percent>

<Carbon captureeffectiveness>

Adjustment to GHGintensity withconventional

Ratio unconventionalto total

<Resourceremaining total>

<Unconventionalresource found>

kgCO2 per tonMMbtu per TJ

<Change in GHGintensity>

<Years to achievediscovery>

Adjusted CO2intensity of resource

<Time to startexploration>

CO2 intensity ofpath

<Avg efficiencyof supply>

CO2 intensity ofresource

<100 percent>


Figure 7.54 GHG Emissions from Extraction Phase

Initial extractionsupply GHG

Initial extractionGHG in development

Avg GHGintensity on order

<GHG intensity of newextraction capacity>

GHG emissions ofFF extraction

capacity GHG of extractioncapacity retirements

GHG emissions ofextraction

capacity on orderGHG of extraction

capacity completionsGHG of extractioncapacity orders

<Extractioncapacity orders>

<Extractioncapacity on order>

<Extractioncapacity on order>

<Extractioncapacity

completions>

Avg GHG intensityof extracted fuel

<Extraction capacityretirements>



<GWP of CH4>

<EJ per TJ><TonsCO2 perGtonsCO2>



Percent of CH4leakage by source

<Convert MMbtu totons CH4>

<MMbtu per TJ>

<ton per Mton><Extractioncapacity>

<100 percent>

Total CH4 percentleakageInitial fraction of

supply GHG from bio

Initial fraction ofsupply GHG from coal

Initial fraction ofsupply GHG from gas

Initial fraction ofsupply GHG from oil

GHG intensity of newextraction capacity

Initial fraction ofextracted fuel supply

GHG by source

Step improvements toGHG intensity of

extraction capacity

Improvement of GHGintensity of new

extraction capacity

Decreasing GHGintensity of new extracted

fuel supply

GHG intensity of extractedfuel supply improvement

rate by source

Step improvements to GHGintensity of extraction

capacity year

Initial fraction of GHGemissions from extracted

fuel supply<Initial GHGemissions>

Initial GHG emissionsof extracted fuel supply


<TonsCO2 perGtonsCO2>

Initial GHG emissions ofextracted fuel supply by

source

Change in GHG intensity ofextracted fuel supply

improvement rate

<100 percent>

Initial GHG emissionsintensity of extracted fuel

supply by source

<TJ per EJ>

GHG emissions fromextraction capacity

construction

GHG intensity ofextraction capacity

construction

<CO2 intensity ofsupply construction>

GHG emissionsfrom extraction

GHG emissions fromuse of extracted fuel

GHG intensity ofextracted fuel use


<Extractioncapacity

completions>

<TJ per EJ>


GHG emissions fromextracted fuel capacity

GHG total emissions fromextraction capacity

construction

Adjustment to GHGintensity of new

extraction capacity

<100 percent>

<Percent of max actionfor other GHGs>

<Time>

<Use OGHGadvanced controls>

Figure 7.53 GHG Emissions from Delivered Fuel and Electricity Generation

GHG emissions fromproduction capacity

construction

<EJ per TJ><TonsCO2 per

GtonsCO2>



GHG total emissions fromenergy production capacity

construction

CO2 intensity ofsupply construction

GHG intensity ofsupply construction

GHG emissions fromproduction capacity

GHG intensity ofdelivered fuel supply

capital

GHG intensity ofelec supply capital


<Elec Energysupply capacity>



Fraction of carrierof each source

Initial emissionintensity of energy

use

Initial fraction of nonCO2GHG emissions from

energy use

<Initial GHGemissions>

GHG intensity ofenergy use


Initial nonCO2 GHGemissions from

energy use

Additional bioemissions from

energy use

Initial emissionfrom energy use

Initial fraction of additionalGHG emissions from

energy use

<Primary energyby carrier>


Fraction of bio fromeach bio path

<TJ per EJ>

GHG total emissionsfrom energy use

<CO2 intensity ofresource>


Figure 7.55 Aggregation of GHG Emissions from Energy Production


construction by resource

GHG emissions fromenergy use by

resource

GHG emissions from energyproduction construction by

aggregated resource


aggregated resource

GHG emissions fromproduction construction by

path and gas

<GHG emissions fromproduction capacity

construction>


resource and gas


<GHG emissions fromproduction capacity>

GHG emissions fromproduction capacity by

resource

GHG emissions fromproduction capacity byaggregated resource

GHG emissions fromenergy production capacity

by resource and gas<VSERRATLEASTO

NE>

<GHG emissions fromextracted fuel capacity>

GHG emissions from energyproduction construction by

resource and gas<GHG emissions fromextraction capacity

construction>

<GHG emissions fromuse of extracted fuel>

GHG emissions fromproduction use by path

and gas

GHG emissions fromenergy production capacity

by path and gas


<VSSUM>

<GHG emissionsfrom energyproduction>

<VSERRATLEASTO

NE>

<VSSUM>

Total GHG emissions fromproduction by aggregated

resource

Total GHG emissionsfrom production byresource and gas


<VSERRATLEASTO

NE><VSSUM>

<GHG emissions fromproduction construction by

path and gas><GHG emissions fromproduction use by path

and gas>

<GHG emissions fromenergy production capacity

by path and gas>Total GHG emissions

from production by pathand gas

Total GHG emissionsfrom production by

resource

GHG emissions fromenergy use by aggregated

resource and gasCO2 emissions from

production by resource


Table 7-70 Parametric Inputs to GHG Emissions from Delivered Fuel and Electricity Generation Use

Parameter Definition Range

Default Values Units

CO2 intensity of energy production [Resource]

Mass of CO2 emitted for every MMBTU produced. Values for coal, oil, and gas are consistent with those from EIA’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coefficients by Fuel. (2013). http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.cfm

kgCO2/MMbtu

Coal 0-100 95Oil 0-100 70

Gas 0-100 54Bio 0-100 60

Nuclear 0-10 1.0Hydro 0-10 0.1

Renewables 0-10 1.0New 0-10 0

MMbtu per TJConversion from millions BTU to terajoules. IEA http://www.iea.org/stats/unit.asp 947.8 MMbtu/TJ

kgCO2 per ton Conversion of kilograms of CO2 to tons of CO2 1000 kgCO2/TonCO2

TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2 Conversion of tons CO2 to gigatons CO2. 1e+009TonCO2/GtonCO2

EJ per TJ Conversion of exajoules to terajoules. 1e-006 EJ/TJAdjustment to carbon

intensity with conventional

Allows the user to change the emissions factor of conventional fuel at a specified year, e.g., different mix of various coal types. 0-1 0

Dmnl

Change in carbon intensity[Resource] -1-2 0 Dmnl

Years to achieve discovery[Resource] 1-50 20 Years

Time to start exploration[Resource[

2017-2100 2017 Year

Additional reserves 0-5 0 Dmnl

http://www.iea.org/stats/unit.asp





discovered as factor of initial remaining[Resource]

Initial fraction of nonCO2 GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs]

Initial fraction of the historical nonCO2 GHGs that come from combustion of fuel for energy. Assumes zero for electric use and for F-gases.

[gCH4, Nonelec] 0.035299,

[gN2O, Nonelec0.0621311

All else 0CO2 intensity of supply

construction CO2 intensity of construction of supply capacity 0-50 10 TonCO2/TJ*Year

GHG intensity of delivered fuel supply capital[FuelPath]

GHG intensity of the capacity of delivered fuel. Defaults to zero to avoid double counting. 0

GtonsCO2/EJ

GHG intensity of elec supply capital

GHG intensity of the capacity of electricity generation. Defaults to zero to avoid double counting. 0 GtonsCO2/EJ

Initial fraction of extracted fuel supply GHG by source[Rnonelec, GHG type]

Fraction of GHG from extraction that comes from each fuel type. Defaults to only CH4 being emitted from extraction.

Coal, gCH4 0.3Oil, gCH4 0.35

Gas, gCH4 0.35Bio, gCH4 0

All else 0Initial fraction of GHG

emissions from Initial fraction of the historical GHGs that come from the extraction of fuel. Defaults to zero for all GHGs except CH4.

Dmnl





extracted fuel supply[GHG type]

gCH4 0.29All else 0

GHG intensity of extracted fuel supply improvement rate by source[Rnonelec]

Annual rate of extraction capacity GHG intensity improvement

-1-1 1

Percent/year

Change in GHG intensity of extracted fuel supply improvement rate

Change in the annual rate of GHG intensity improvement as multiplier of default. -1-2 1

dmnl

Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity

Adjusts the GHG intensity of extraction capacity0-1 0

Dmnl

Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity year[Rnonlec]

Year of step improvement to GHG intensity 2017-2100 2020

Year

GHG intensity of extracted fuel use[Rnonelec, GHG type]

GHG intensity of use of extracted fuels. Defaults to 0 to avoid double counting. 0

GtonsCO2/EJ


Table 7-71. GHG Emissions from Delivered Fuel and Electricity Generation Calculated Parameters


CO2 emissions from energy

The annual CO2 emitted from production construction, capacity, and use from all the energy sources.

SUM(CO2 emissions from production by path and gas[EnergyPath!])

GtonsCO2/Year

Original CO2 intensity of resource[Resource]

Carbon intensity of primary energy of each resource accounting for carbon capture effectiveness for the CCS paths. TonCO2/TJ

Rnonelec CO2 intensity of energy production[Rnonelec]*MMbtu per TJ/kgCO2 per ton

Resource with CCSCO2 intensity of energy production[RThermal without CCS]*(1-

Carbon capture effectiveness[Resource with CCS]/"100 percent")*MMbtu per TJ/kgCO2 per ton

R elec only CO2 intensity of energy production[R elec only]*MMbtu per TJ/kgCO2 per ton

Adjusted CO2 intensity of resource[Resource]

Adjusted carbon intensity of primary energy of each resource, accounting increases in intensity with unconventional fuel extraction.

(1+ramp(Change in GHG intensity[Resource]/Years to achieve discovery[Resource],Time to start exploration[Resource], Time to start exploration[Resource]+Years to achieve discovery[Resource]))*Original CO2 intensity of resource[Resource]

TonCO2/TJ

CO2 intensity of resource[Resource]

Adjusted CO2 intensity of resource[Rnonelec]*Ratio unconventional to total[Rnonelec]+IF THEN ELSE(Adjustment to GHG intensity with conventional, Adjusted CO2 intensity of resource[Rnonelec], Original CO2 intensity of resource

[Rnonelec])*(1-Ratio unconventional to total[Rnonelec])

TonCO2/TJ

Rnonelec Adjusted CO2 intensity of resource[Rnonelec]*Ratio unconventional to total[Rnonelec]+IF THEN ELSE(Adjustment



Parameter Definition Unitsto GHG intensity with conventional, Adjusted CO2 intensity of resource[Rnonelec], Original CO2 intensity of resource[Rnonelec])*(1-Ratio unconventional to total[Rnonelec])

Resource with CCS CO2 intensity of resource[RThermal without CCS]*(1-Carbon capture effectiveness[Resource with CCS]/"100 percent")

R elec only Original CO2 intensity of resource[R elec only]Ratio unconventional to

total[Rnonelec]Unconventional resource found[Rnonelec]/Resource remaining

total[Rnonelec] Dmnl

Initial nonCO2 GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs,Carrier]

Initial ratio of other GHG emissions (from RCP) to initial other GHG emitting capital GtonsCO2eq/Year

FuelPath,Minor GHGs

Initial nonCO2 GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs,NonElec]*Fraction of carrier of each source[FuelPath]+Additional bio emissions from energy use[FuelPath,Minor GHGs]

ElecPath,Minor GHGs

Initial nonCO2 GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs,Elec]*Fraction of carrier of each source[ElecPath]+Additional bio emissions from energy use[ElecPath,Minor GHGs]

Additional bio emissions from energy use[EnergyPath,Minor GHGs]

Initial GHG emissions[Minor GHGs]*Initial fraction of additional GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs]*Fraction of bio from each bio path[Bio]

GtonsCO2/Year

All Bio,Minor GHGsAll else 0

Fraction of bio from each bio path[Bio]

Fraction of bio from nonelectric use, from electric use, and from electric CCS use.

Primary energy by path[Bio]/SUM(Primary energy by path[Bio!])

Dmnl

Fraction of carrier of each Primary energy by path[EnergyPath]/Primary energy by Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitssource[EnergyPath] carrier[Carrier]

Initial emission from energy use[EnergyPath,Minor GHGs] GtonsCO2/Year

FuelPath,Minor GHGs

Initial nonCO2 GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs,NonElec]*Fraction of carrier of each source[FuelPath]+Additional bio emissions from energy use[FuelPath,Minor GHGs]

ElecPath,Minor GHGs

Initial nonCO2 GHG emissions from energy use[Minor GHGs,Elec]*Fraction of carrier of each source[ElecPath]+Additional bio emissions from energy use[ElecPath,Minor GHGs]

Initial emission intensity of energy use[EnergyPath,Minor GHGs]

ZIDZ(Initial emission from energy use[EnergyPath,Minor GHGs],Primary energy by path[EnergyPath])*TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2/TJ per EJ

TonCO2/TJ

GHG intensity of energy use[EnergyPath, GHG type]

Brings CO2 intensity and minor GHG intensity of production use into one variable. TonCO2/TJ

EnergyPath, gCO2 CO2 intensity of resource[Resource]EnergyPath, Minor GHGs Initial emission intensity of energy use[EnergyPath,Minor GHGs]

GHG emissions from energy production[EnergyPath, GHG type]

GHG emissions from each energy path as a product of intensity of primary energy and the primary energy of each path.

Primary energy by path[EnergyPath]*GHG intensity of energy use[EnergyPath,GHG type]*TJ per EJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2

GtonsCO2/Year

GHG total emissions from energy use[GHG type]

SUM(GHG emissions from energy production[EnergyPath!,GHG type]) GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from production capacity EnergyPath, GHG type]

GHG emissions from the capacity of delivered fuel and electricity generation. Defaults to zero to avoid double counting. GtonsCO2/Year

FuelPath, GHG type GHG intensity of delivered fuel supply capital[FuelPath]*Fuel supply capacity[Rnonelec]




ElecPath,GHG type GHG intensity of elec supply capital*Elec Energy supply capacity[ElecPath]

GHG intensity of supply construction[GHG type] GHG intensity of supply construction TonCO2/TJ*Year

gCO2 CO2 intensity of supply constructionMinor GHGs 0

GHG emissions from production capacity

construction[EnergyPath, GHG type

GtonsCO2/Year

FuelPath, GHG typeGHG intensity of supply construction [GHG type]*Fuel

Completing capacity[Rnonelec]/EJ per TJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2

ElecPath, GHG typeGHG intensity of supply construction [GHG type]*Elec

Completing capacity[ElecPath]/EJ per TJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2

GHG total emissions from energy production capacity construction[GHG type]

SUM(GHG emissions from production capacity construction[EnergyPath!,GHG type]) GtonsCO2/Year

Percent of max action for other GHGs

Percent of maximum action of other GHGs (methane, N20, and the f-gases), where 0 is the "business as usual" actions on non-energy production drivers. Other GHG emissions from energy production are affected by the decisions driving energy paths.

Percent


Table 7-72. GHG Emissions from Extraction Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsInitial GHG emissions of

extracted fuel supply[GHG type]

Initial GHG emissions[GHG type]*Initial fraction of GHG emissions from extracted fuel supply[GHG type] GtonsCO2eq/Year

Initial GHG emissions of extracted fuel supply by source[Rnonelec, GHG type]

Initial fraction of extracted fuel supply GHG by source[Rnonelec, GHG type]*Initial GHG emissions of extracted fuel supply[GHG type]

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Initial GHG emissions intensity of extracted fuel supply by source[Rnonelec,GHG type]

Initial GHG emissions of extracted fuel supply by source[Rnonelec, GHG type]/Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]/TJ per EJ*TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2

TonCO2/TJ

GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type]

Initial GHG emissions intensity of extracted fuel supply by source[Rnonelec,GHG type]*Adjustment to GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type]

TonCO2/TJ

Adjustment to GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type]

Adjusts GHG intensity. For Minor GHGs, affected by Percent of max action for other GHGs if Use OGHG advanced controls = 0, i.e., default.

Dmnl

Minor GHGs

Improvement of GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,Minor GHGs]*IF THEN ELSE(Use OGHG advanced controls=0 :AND:Time>Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity year[Rnonelec], 1-Percent of max action for other GHGs/"100 percent",(1-STEP(Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity ,Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity year[Rnonelec])))

gCO2

Improvement of GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,gCO2]*(1-STEP(Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity ,Step improvements to GHG intensity of extraction capacity year[Rnonelec]))

GHG of extraction capacity orders[Rnonelec,GHG type]

Extraction capacity orders[Rnonelec]*GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type]

(TonCO2/TJ)*(EJ/Year)/Year

Initial extraction GHG in INITIAL(Extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec]*GHG intensity (TonCO2/TJ)*(EJ/Year)



Parameter Definition Unitsdevelopment[Rnonelec,GHG type] of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type])

Initial extraction supply GHG[Rnonelec,GHG type]

INITIAL(Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type]) (TonCO2/TJ)*(EJ/Year)

GHG emissions of extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec,GHG type]

The extraction capacity for each extracted fuel on order.

INTEG(GHG of extraction capacity orders[Rnonelec,GHG type]-GHG of extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec,GHG type], Initial extraction GHG in development[Rnonelec,GHG type])

(TonCO2/TJ)*(EJ/Year)

GHG of extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec,GHG type]

The amount of extraction capacity of each fuel that completes the construction process each year.

Avg GHG intensity on order[Rnonelec,GHG type]*Extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec]


GHG emissions of FF extraction capacity[Rnonelec, GHG type]

INTEG(GHG of extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec,GHG type]-GHG of extraction capacity retirements[Rnonelec,GHG type], Initial extraction supply GHG[Rnonelec, GHG type])

(TonCO2/TJ)*(EJ/Year)

GHG of extraction capacity retirements[Rnonelec,GHG type]

Avg GHG intensity of extracted fuel[Rnonelec,GHG type]*Extraction capacity retirements[Rnonelec]


Avg GHG intensity on order ]Rnonelec,GHG type]

Embodied GHG intensity of extraction capacity under development of each fuel path, locked in at that time.

ZIDZ(GHG emissions of extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec,GHG type], Extraction capacity on order[Rnonelec])

TonCO2/TJ

Avg GHG intensity of extracted Embodied GHG intensity of extraction capacity of each fuel TonCO2/TJ




fuel

path, initialized to be the GHG intensity of new capacity.

ACTIVE INITIAL(ZIDZ(GHG emissions of FF extraction capacity[Rnonelec, GHG type],Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]), GHG intensity of new extraction capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type])

GHG emissions from extracted fuel capacity[Rnonelec, GHG type]

Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*Avg GHG intensity of extracted fuel[Rnonelec,GHG type]/EJ per TJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2 GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from extracted fuel capacity[Rnonelec, GHG type]

Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*Avg GHG intensity of extracted fuel[Rnonelec,GHG type]/EJ per TJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2 GtonsCO2/Year

GHG intensity of extraction capacity construction TonCO2/TJ*Year

gCO2 CO2 intensity of supply constructionAll else 0

GHG emissions from extraction capacity construction[Rnonelec, GHG type]

GHG intensity of extraction capacity construction [GHG type]*Extraction capacity completions[Rnonelec]/EJ per TJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2

GtonsCO2/Year

GHG total emissions from extraction capacity construction

SUM(GHG emissions from extraction capacity construction[Rnonelec!,GHG type]) GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from use of extracted fuel[Rnonelec, GHG type]

GHG intensity of extracted fuel use[Rnonelec,GHG type]*Demand of delivered fuels[Rnonelec] GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from extraction[Rnonelec, GHG type]

GHG emissions from use of extracted fuel[Rnonelec, GHG type]+GHG emissions from extraction capacity construction[Rnonelec,GHG type]+GHG emissions from extracted fuel capacity[Rnonelec,GHG type]

GtonsCO2/Year




Percent of CH4 leakage by source

Natural gas that leaks into atmosphere, adding to global CH4 emissions. Assumes approximation of 100% natural gas = CH4. Includes leakage during mining, transportation, and distribution.

GHG emissions from extraction[Rnonelec, gCH4]/(Extraction capacity[Rnonelec]*MMbtu per TJ*TJ per EJ/TonsCO2 per GtonsCO2*Convert MMbtu to tons CH4/ton per Mton)/(GWP of CH4 *ton per Mton)*"100 percent"

Percent


Table 7-73. Aggregation of GHG Emissions from Energy Production

Parameter Definition UnitsGHG emissions from energy

production capacity by path and gas[EnergyPath, GHG type]

Emissions of each GHG from energy production capacity including that of extracted fuels, delivered fuels, and electricity generation.

GtonsCO2/Year

FuelPath, GHG typeGHG emissions from production capacity[FuelPath,GHG type]

+GHG emissions from extracted fuel capacity[Rnonelec, GHG type]

ElecPath,GHG type GHG emissions from production capacity[ElecPath,GHG type]

GHG emissions from energy production capacity by resource and gas[Resource,GHG type]

VECTOR SELECT(Path resource definition[EnergyPath!,Resource]

,GHG emissions from energy production capacity by path and gas[EnergyPath!,GHG type],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from production capacity by resource[Resource]

SUM(GHG emissions from energy production capacity by resource and gas[Resource,GHG type!]) GtonsCO2/Year

RThermal without CCS GHG emissions of each resource,combining the those of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts.

R elec onlyGHG emissions from production capacity by resource[RThermal

without CCS]+GHG emissions from production capacity by resource[Resource with CCS]

Resource with CCS 0GHG emissions from production

construction by path and gas[EnergyPath, GHG type]

Emissions of each GHG from construction of energy production capacity including that of extracted fuels, delivered fuels, and electricity generation.

GtonsCO2/Year

FuelPath, GHG typeGHG emissions from production capacity

construction[FuelPath,GHG type]+GHG emissions from extraction capacity construction[Rnonelec,GHG type]

ElecPath,GHG type GHG emissions from production capacity construction[ElecPath,GHG type]



Parameter Definition UnitsGHG emissions from energy

production construction by resource and gas[Resource, GHG type]


,GHG emissions from production construction by path and gas[EnergyPath!, GHG type],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from energy production construction by resource[Resource]

SUM(GHG emissions from energy production construction by resource and gas[Resource,GHG type!]) GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from energy production construction by aggregated resource[Resource]

GHG emissions from production capacity construction of each resource,combining the those of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts.

GtonsCO2/Year

RThermal without CCSGHG emissions from energy production construction by

resource[RThermal without CCS]+GHG emissions from energy production construction by resource[Resource with CCS]

R elec only GHG emissions from energy production construction by resource [R elec only]

Resource with CCS 0GHG emissions from production

use by path and gas[EnergyPath, GHG type]

Emissions of each GHG from energy production use including that of extracted fuels, delivered fuels, and electricity generation. GtonsCO2/Year

FuelPath, GHG typeGHG emissions from energy production[FuelPath, GHG type]+

GHG emissions from use of extracted fuel[Rnonelec,GHG type]

ElecPath,GHG type GHG emissions from energy production[ElecPath,GHG type]

GHG emissions from energy use by resource and gas[Resource, GHG type]


,GHG emissions from production use by path and gas[EnergyPath!, GHG type],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from energy use by resource[Resource]

SUM(GHG emissions from energy use by resource and gas[Resource,GHG type!]) GtonsCO2/Year

GHG emissions from energy use by GHG emissions from production use of each resource, combining GtonsCO2/Year



Parameter Definition Unitsaggregated resource those of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts.

RThermal without CCSGHG emissions from energy use by resource[RThermal without

CCS]+GHG emissions from energy use by resource[Resource with CCS]

R elec only GHG emissions from energy use by resource [R elec only]Resource with CCS 0

Total GHG emissions from production by path and gas[EnergyPath, GHG type]

GHG emissions from energy production capacity by path and gas [EnergyPath,GHG type]+GHG emissions from production construction by path and gas[EnergyPath,GHG type]+GHG emissions from production use by path and gas[EnergyPath,GHG type]

GtonsCO2/Year

Total GHG emissions from production by resource and gas[Resource, GHG type]


,Total GHG emissions from production by path and gas[EnergyPath!,GHG type],0,VSSUM,VSERRATLEASTONE)

GtonsCO2/Year

Total GHG emissions from production by resource

SUM(Total GHG emissions from production by resource and gas[Resource, GHG type!]) GtonsCO2/Year

Total GHG emissions from production by aggregated resource[Resource]

GHG emissions of each resource, combining those of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts. GtonsCO2/Year

RThermal without CCSTotal GHG emissions from production by resource [RThermal

without CCS]+Total GHG emissions from production by resource[Resource with CCS]

R elec only Total GHG emissions from production by resource [R elec only]Resource with CCS 0

GHG emissions from energy use by aggregated resource and

gas[Resource, GHG type]

GHG emissions of each resource by type, combining those of the thermal resources with their CCS counterparts. GtonsCO2/Year

RThermal without CCS, GHG type GHG emissions from energy use by resource and gas[RThermal



Parameter Definition Unitswithout CCS, GHG type]+GHG emissions from energy use by resource and gas[Resource with CCS, GHG type]

R elec only, GHG type GHG emissions from energy use by resource and gas [R elec only, GHG type]

Resource with CCS, GHG type 0


Figure 7.56 GHG Emissions from New End Use Capital

Relative emissionsintensity of new capital

Improvement rate inemission intensity of

new capital

Desired improvementrate for OGHG intensity

Effect of minimumintensity

Minimum averageemission intensity of

new capital

Changing emissionsintensity of capital

<100 percent>

Initial improvementrate in emission

intensity

Post changeimprovement rate ofemission intensity

Initial emissionintensity of elec

capital

Initial emissionintensity of new elec

capital

<Initial elec capitalby sector>

<Initial embodiedemissions of elec

capital>

End use capitalintensity improvement

year

<Time>

Initial improvement ratein emission intensity

CH4


HFCs

Initial improvement rate inemission intensity N2O


PFC


SF6

Post changeimprovement rate of

emission intensity CH4Post change

improvement rate ofemission intensity HFCs


emission intensity N2O


emission intensity PFC


emission intensity SF6

Relative intensitygap

Emissions intensityof new elec capital

Time to closegap

Change in intensity ofnew capital for allnonCO2 GHGs


<100 percent>

Step improvements toCH4 intensity of new

capital

Step improvements toGHG intensity of new

capital year

Adjusted relativeemissions intensity of

new capital

Step improvements toN2O intensity of new

capital

Step improvements toF gas intensity of new

capital

Step improvements toGHG intensity of new

capital

Step improvements toCO2 intensity of new

capital


CO2


emission intensity CO2

Fraction of emissionsfrom demand capital

due to use

Initial emissionsintensity of new

nonelec fuel capital

Initial emissionintensity of nonelec

fuel capital

<Initial nonelec capitalby sector and fuelpath>

Emissions intensity ofnew nonelec fuel

capital

<Initial improvementrate in emission

intensity>

<Initial embodiedemissions of nonelec

fuel capital>

<Percent of maxaction for other

GHGs>



Figure 7.57 Embodied GHG Emissions from Electric End Use Capital

Main

Originalemissions of

elec consumingcapital 1Original emissions

installing elecconsuming capital


elec consumingcapital 3


elec consumingcapital 2 Original emissions

elec aging 2 to 3Original emissionselec aging 1 to 2

Original emissionselec consuming retiring

Original emissionsdiscarding of elec

capital 1

Original emissionsintensity of elec

consuming capital 1


consuming capital 2


consuming capital 3


capital 2


capital 3

<Initial embodiedemissions of capital

1>


2>


3>



consuming capital 3><Elec early

discarding 1><Elec early

discarding 2><Elec early

discarding 3>


<Elec aging 1to 2> <Elec aging 2

to 3>

<Elec retiring>

Embodiedemissions of

elec consumingcapital 1Embodied emissions

installing elecconsuming capital


elec consumingcapital 3


elec consumingcapital 2 Embodied

emissions elecaging 2 to 3

Embodiedemissions elec

aging 1 to 2

Embodied emissionselec consuming retiring

Embodied emissionsdiscarding elec capital

1

Emissions intensityof elec capital 1




2


3



<Elec aging 1to 2>



<Elec aging 2to 3>



<Elec retiring>Embodied emissionsretrofits elec capital 1

Embodied emissionsretrofits elec capital 2

Embodied emissionsretrofits elec capital 3

<Emissionsintensity of new

elec capital>

<Other GHGretrofit rate>

<Potential savedemissions from elec

retrofits 1><Potential saved

emissions from elecretrofits 2>


<Potential savedemissions from elec

retrofits 3>


Figure 7.58 Embodied GHG Emissions from Nonelectric End Use Capital by Fuel

Originalemissions ofnonelec fuelconsuming

capital 1Original emissions

installing nonelec fuelconsuming capital


capital 3


capital 2Original emissionsnonelec fuel aging 2

to 3

Original emissionsnonelec fuel aging 1

to 2

Original emissionsnonelec fuel consuming

retiring

Original emissionsdiscarding of nonelec

fuel capital 1

Original emissionsintensity of nonelec fuel

consuming capital 1


consuming capital 2


consuming capital 3


fuel capital 2


feul capital 3


2>

Embodiedemissions ofnonelec fuelconsuming

capital 1Embodied emissionsinstalling nonelec fuel

consuming capital


capital 3


capital 2 Embodied emissionsnonelec fuel aging 2 to

3

Embodied emissionsnonelec fuel aging 1 to

2

Embodied emissionsnonelec fuel consuming

retiring

Embodied emissionsdiscarding fuel

consuming capital 1Emissions intensity of

nonelec fuel consumingcapital 1

Emissions intensity ofnonelec fuel consuming

capital 2

Emissions intensity ofnonelec fuel consuming

capital 3


consuming capital 2


consuming capital 3

<Emissions intensity ofnew nonelec fuel

capital>





<NonElec energyconsuming capital by

fuel 1><NonElec energy

consuming capital byfuel 2>


fuel 3>








fuel 1><NonElec by fuel

early discarding 1><NonElec energy


<NonElec by fuelearly discarding 3><NonElec energy



Embodied emissionsretrofits nonelec fuel

capital 1


<Potential savedemissions from nonelec

fuel retrofits 1>


capital 2

<Other GHGretrofit rate><Potential saved

emissions from nonelecfuel retrofits 2>


capital 3

<Potential savedemissions from nonelec

fuel retrofits 3>


fuel capital 1>


fuel capital 2>


fuel capital 3>


Figure 7.59 GHG Emissions from End Use Capital Construction, Capacity, and Use

Average emissionintensity of consumption

elec capital


<Embodied emissionsof elec consuming

capital 1><Embodied emissions

of elec consumingcapital 2><Embodied emissions

of elec consumingcapital 3>


each end use>GHG emissions from

elec consumptioncapital


each end use>

Utilization of eleccapital by enduse

GHG emissions fromenergy consumption by

end use

GHG emissions fromconsumption capital

construction

GHG total emissionsfrom demandconstruction



GHG intensity ofdemand construction

CO2 intensity ofdemand construction

End use emissions perjoule of elecconsumption

GHG emissions fromuse of elec consumption

capital

<Fraction of emissionsfrom demand capital due

to use>

<Initial embodiedemissions of elec

capital>

Average emissionintensity of consumption

nonelec capital


each end use>

GHG emissions fromnonelec consumption

capital by fuel


each end use>

<Total elec energyrequirements by end

use> Total GHG emissionsfrom nonelec

consumption capital


capital

Utilization of nonelecfuel capital by enduse


enduse>


use><Demand ofelectricity toproducers>

<Demand ofelectricity toproducers> End use emissions per

joule of nonelec fuelconsumption

GHG emissions from useof nonelec fuel

consumption capital


enduse>

<Fraction of emissionsfrom demand capital due

to use>


fuel capital>

GHG emissions from useof nonelec consumption

capital

GHG emissions fromuse of consumption

capital

GHG emissions from elecconsumption capital

construction

GHG emissions fromnonelec consumptioncapital construction

GHG emissions fromnonelec fuel consumption

capital construction



<Embodied emissions ofnonelec fuel consuming

capital 1>


capital 2>


capital 3>


Figure 7.60 Parametric Inputs to GHG Emissions from New Energy-Consuming Capital


Initial improvement rate in emission intensity [GHG type]

Progress rate in on emission intensity of new capital that emits GHG initially, without action -1-5 percent/Year

gCO2 1gCH4 3gN2O 1gPFC 2.5gSF6 1

gHFCs -4Post change improvement rate of

emission intensity[GHG type]Progress rate in emission intensity of new capital that emits GHG initially, after changing effort -1-5 percent/Year

gCO2 1gCH4 3gN2O 1gPFC 2.5gSF6 1

gHFCs Reflects Kigali amendment. 10Change in intensity of new capital for

all nonCO2 GHGs 1End use capital intensity improvement

year2017-2100 2017 Year

Time to close gap 10 YearMinimum average emission intensity of

new capitalThe lowest emissions per unit of emitting capital achievable 0.05 Dmnl

Fraction of emissions from demand capital due to use 0.1 Dmnl

Step improvements to GHG intensity of new capital[GHG type] 0-1 0 Dmnl


Figure 7.61 GHG Emissions from New Energy-Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters


Effect of minimum intensity[EndUseSector,GHG type]

A soft minimum function to limit change in emission intensity as it nears it minimum

Relative intensity gap[EndUseSector,GHG type]/Time to close gap

1/year

Relative intensity gap[EndUseSector,GHG type]

Adjusted relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]/Minimum average emission intensity of new capital-1

dmnl

Improvement rate in emission intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]

Progress (or degradation if negative) rate of emission intensity of new capital in other GHG

MIN(Desired improvement rate for OGHG intensity[GHG type], Effect of minimum intensity[EndUseSector,GHG type])

1/year

Changing emissions intensity of capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]

Relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]*-Improvement rate in emission intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]

1/Year

Relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]

The emissions intensity, i.e., GHGs per unit of capital, by end use sector, of new capital as a function of changes to technolgy to reduce leaks and off-gassing

INTEG(Changing emissions intensity of capital[EndUseSector,GHG type], 1)

dmnl

Adjusted relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]

Relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]*(1-STEP(Step improvements to GHG intensity of new capital[GHG type], Step improvements to GHG intensity of new capital year))

Dmnl

Initial emission intensity of new elec capital[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Initial ratio of other GHG emissions expected per unit of other GHG emiting capital

Initial emission intensity of elec capital[EndUseSector, GHG

GtonsCO2eq/(Year*T$ 2011 PPP)


Figure 7.61 GHG Emissions from New Energy-Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Unitstype]*EXP(-Initial improvement rate in emission intensity[GHG type]/"100 percent"* Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector])

Initial emissions intensity of new nonelec fuel capital[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

Initial ratio of other GHG emissions expected per unit of other GHG emiting capital

Initial emission intensity of nonelec fuel capital[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*EXP(-Initial improvement rate in emission intensity[GHG type]/"100 percent"* Effective capital lifetime[EndUseSector])


Emissions intensity of new elec capital[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Adjusted relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]*Initial emission intensity of new elec capital[EndUseSector

, GHG type]


Emissions intensity of new nonelec fuel capital [EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

Adjusted relative emissions intensity of new capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]*Initial emissions intensity of new nonelec fuel capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]



Figure 7.62 GHG Emissions from Electric Energy-Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsOriginal emissions installing elec

consuming capita[lEndUseSector,GHG type]

Emissions intensity of new elec capital[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Installing elec capital[EndUseSector]

GtonsCO2eq/(Year*Year)

Original emissions of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]

INTEG(Original emissions installing elec consuming capital[EndUseSector, GHG type]-Original emissions elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]-Original emissions discarding of elec capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of capital 1[EndUseSector,GHG type]

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Original emissions intensity of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Original emissions of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]/Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]


Original emissions discarding of elec capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Original emissions intensity of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec early discarding 1[EndUseSector]


Original emissions elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, GHG type

Original emissions intensity of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]



INTEG(Original emissions elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]-Original emissions elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]-Original emissions discarding of elec capital 2[EndUseSector, GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of capital 2[EndUseSector, GHG type])

GtonsCO2eq/Year







Original emissions elec aging 2 to Original emissions intensity of elec consuming capital GtonsCO2eq/



Parameter Definition Units3[EndUseSector, GHG type 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector] (Year*Year)


INTEG(Original emissions elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]-Original emissions discarding of elec capital 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]-Original emissions elec consuming retiring[EndUseSector, GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of capital 3[EndUseSector, GHG type])

GtonsCO2eq/Year




Original emissions elec consuming retiring[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Original emissions intensity of elec consuming capital 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec retiring[EndUseSector]





Embodied emissions installing elec consuming capita[lEndUseSector,GHG type]

Original emissions installing elec consuming capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]


Embodied emissions of elec consuming capital 1 [EndUseSector, GHG type]

INTEG(Embodied emissions installing elec consuming capital[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions discarding elec capital 1[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions retrofits elec capital 1[EndUseSector,GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of capital 1[EndUseSector,GHG type]

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Emissions intensity of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Embodied emissions of elec consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]/Elec energy consuming capital 1[EndUseSector]


Embodied emissions discarding of Emissions intensity of elec capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG GtonsCO2eq/



Parameter Definition Unitselec capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type] type]*Elec early discarding 1[EndUseSector] (Year*Year)

Embodied emissions elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, GHG type

Emissions intensity of elec capital 1[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector]


Embodied emissions retrofits elec capital 1[EndUseSector,GHG type]

Other GHG retrofit rate*Potential saved emissions from elec retrofits 1[EndUseSector,GHG type]


Embodied emissions of elec consuming capital 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]

INTEG(Embodied emissions elec aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions discarding elec capital 2[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions retrofits elec capital 2[EndUseSector,GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of capital 2[EndUseSector,GHG type])

GtonsCO2eq/Year




Embodied emissions discarding of elec capital 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Emissions intensity of elec capital 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec early discarding 2[EndUseSector]


Embodied l emissions elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, GHG type

Emissions intensity of elec capital 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector]



Other GHG retrofit rate * Potential saved emissions from elec retrofits 2[EndUseSector, GHG type]


Embodied emissions of elec consuming capital 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]

INTEG(Embodied emissions elec aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions discarding elec capital 3[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions elec consuming retiring[EndUseSector,GHG type]-Embodied emissions retrofits elec capital 3[EndUseSector,GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of capital 3[EndUseSector,GHG

GtonsCO2eq/Year



Parameter Definition Unitstype])


ZIDZ(Embodied emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type], NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath])


Embodied emissions elec consuming retiring[EndUseSector, GHG type]

Emissions intensity of elec capital 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]*Elec retiring[EndUseSector]


Emissions discarding of elec capital 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]




Other GHG retrofit rate * Potential saved emissions from elec retrofits 3[EndUseSector, GHG type]



Figure 7.63 GHG Emissions from Fuel-Consuming Capital Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsOriginal emissions installing fuel

consuming capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]

Emissions intensity of new nonelec fuel capital[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*Installing fuel capital[EndUseSector, FuelPath]


Original emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

INTEG(Original emissions installing nonelec fuel consuming capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Original emissions nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]-Original emissions discarding of nonelec fuel capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of nonelec fuel capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type])

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

ZIDZ(Original emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type], NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath])


Original emissions discarding of nonelec fuel capital 1 [EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel early discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]


Original emissions nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2 [EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]



INTEG(Original emissions nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]-Original emissions nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]-Original emissions discarding of nonelec fuel capital 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of nonelec fuel capital

GtonsCO2eq/Year



Parameter Definition Units2[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type])

Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]







Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]



INTEG(Original emissions nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]-Original emissions discarding of nonelec feul capital 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]-Original emissions nonelec fuel consuming retiring[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of nonelec fuel capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type])

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]







Original emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel retiring[EndUseSector, FuelPath]




Parameter Definition UnitsEmbodied emissions installing

nonelec fuel consuming capitalOriginal emissions installing nonelec fuel consuming

capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]GtonsCO2eq/

(Year*Year)

Embodied emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1 [EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]

INTEG(Embodied emissions installing nonelec fuel consuming capital[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]-Embodied emissions nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]-Embodied emissions discarding fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Embodied emissions retrofits nonelec fuel capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of nonelec fuel capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type])

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

ZIDZ(Embodied emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type],NonElec energy consuming capital by fuel 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath])


Embodied emissions retrofits nonelec fuel capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]

Other GHG retrofit rate*Potential saved emissions from nonelec fuel retrofits 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]


Embodied emissions nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]

Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath]


Embodied emissions discarding fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]

Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 1[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel early discarding 1[EndUseSector, FuelPath]


Embodied emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 2 [EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG

INTEG(Embodied emissions nonelec fuel aging 1 to 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Embodied emissions nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-

GtonsCO2eq/Year




type]

Embodied emissions discarding fuel consuming capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Embodied emissions retrofits nonelec fuel capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of nonelec fuel capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type])







Embodied emissions nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]

Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]



Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 2[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel early discarding 2[EndUseSector, FuelPath]


Embodied emissions of nonelec fuel consuming capital 3 [EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]

INTEG(Embodied emissions nonelec fuel aging 2 to 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Embodied emissions discarding fuel consuming capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Embodied emissions nonelec fuel consuming retiring[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type]-Embodied emissions retrofits nonelec fuel capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type], Initial embodied emissions of nonelec fuel capital

GtonsCO2eq/Year



Parameter Definition Units3[EndUseSector,FuelPath,GHG type])







Embodied emissions nonelec fuel consuming retiring [EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]

Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 3[EndUseSector, FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel retiring[EndUseSector, FuelPath]



Emissions intensity of nonelec fuel consuming capital 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath, GHG type]*NonElec by fuel early discarding 3[EndUseSector,FuelPath]



Figure 7.64 GHG Emissions from Agriculture and Waste

<Globalpopulation>

<Global GDPper capita>

Production perperson

Effect of income onproduction ratio

Agriculturalproduction

Wasteproduction

Sensitivity ofproduction to income

GHG emissionsfrom agriculture

GHG emissionsfrom waste

kg per Gt

Emissions intensityof production

Referenceproduction per

person

Reference intensityof production

<Initial GHGemissions>

Initial GHGemissions from

production

Sensitivity ofproduction toincome Ag

Sensitivity ofproduction to income

Waste

Production ratio

Effect on productionintensity

Changingproduction ratio

Change inproduction intensity Initial fraction of GHG

emissions fromproduction<100 percent> <100 percent>

Historic rate ofchange of prodution

ratio

<Time>Year to changeproduction ratio

<Use OGHGadvanced controls> Rate of change of

prodution ratio

Rate of change ofagricture prodution

ratio

Rate of change ofwaste prodution ratio

Total rate of change inintensity of production

Historic rate of changein intensity from

technology

Historic rate of changein intensity fromchanging diets

Rate of change inproduction intensity

Year to change ratesof production intensity

<Percent of maxaction for other

GHGs> Rate of change inagriculture production

intensity

Rate of change inwaste production

intensity

Rate to achieve maxaction for other GHGs

Other emissionstarget year

<100 percent>

min ln term


Other emissionsstart year

<One year>


Figure 7.65 Parametric Inputs to GHG Emissions from Agriculture and Waste



Reference production per person[ProductionSector]

Food: 1.52kg/day (http://www.nationalgeographic.com/what-the-world-eats/ in 1990) * 365 = 555Waste 1.2kg/day MSW (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/336387-1334852610766/Chap3.pdf) *365 = 438

Agriculture 555Waste 438

Year to change production ratio

Year to change the production ratio rates of change.2017-2020 2017

Year

Historic rate of change of prodution ratio[ProductionSector]

Historic percent change in agriculture or waste per person per year from reducing losses, eg refrigerated storage, faster transit, etc -100-

0 0

Percent/year

Rate of change of prodution ratio[ProductionSector]

Percent change in agriculture or waste per person per year from reducing losses, eg refrigerated storage, faster transit, etc -100-

0 0

Percent/year


Year to change rates of production intensity

Year to change the production intensity rates of change.2017-2100 2017

Year

Historic rate of change in intensity from changing diets [ProductionSector,GHG type]

Historic percent change per year in emissions per unit of agriculture or waste due to changing behavior and preferences, such as reducing meat, organic agriculture, reducing waste etc.

0

percent/Year

Historic rate of change Historic percent change per year in emissions per unit of agriculture or -100- 0





in intensity from technology [ProductionSector]

waste due to changing availability or adoption of technological solutions, e.g. manure management, fertilizer efficiency, waste treatment, landfill gas capture 0

Rate of change in production intensity[ProductionSector]

Percent change per year in emissions per unit of production, starting in the year to change rates of production intensity. -100-

0

Percent/year


Initial fraction of GHG emissions from production [ProductionSector,GHG type]

Initial fraction of total emissions of each GHG that comes from each production sector. dmnl

Agriculture, gCH40.475132

Agriculture, gN2O0.814215

Waste, gCH4 0.17091

Waste, gN2O0.0237334

All else 0Sensitivity of

production to income[ProductionSector]

Sensitivity of agriculture or waste production to changes in per capital GDP - if zero, production is purely proportional to population, if 1 production is proprtional to GDP 0-1 0

dmnl

Other emissions start year

Year to start the change in rates of the other GHG reductions.2017-2100 2017

year





Other emissions target year

Year to achieve the change in rates of the other GHG reductions.2020-2100 2050

year

kg per Gt 1e12 kg/Gt


Figure 7.66 GHG Emissions from Agriculture and Waste Production Calculated Parameters


Effect of income on production ratio[ProductionSector]

Multiplier on per person production of waste or agriculture reflecting changes in per person GDP

(Global GDP per capita /INIT(Global GDP per capita))^Sensitivity of production to income[ProductionSector]

Dmnl

Production per person[ProductionSector]

Production of agriculture or waste per person per year

Reference production per person[ProductionSector]*Effect of income on production ratio[ProductionSector]*Production ratio[ProductionSector]

kg/(Year*person)

Agricultural production

Production of agriculture in tons for calculating agricultural emissions

Global population *Production per person[Agriculture]/kg per Gt

Gt/Year

Waste production

Production of waste in aggregate mass per year for calculating emissions related to sewage, landfill, etc

Global population *Production per person[Waste]/kg per Gt

Gt/Year

Production ratio[ProductionSector]

Multiplier on waste or agriculture produced per person reflecting changes to the mix of food systems, waste attitudes, storage and transit efficiency compared to initial conditions

INTEG(Changing production ratio[ProductionSector], 1)

Dmnl

Changing production ratio[ProductionSector]

Change in production of agriculture and waste from factors other than income

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Year to change production ratio, Historic rate of change of prodution ratio[ProductionSector], IF THEN ELSE

(Use OGHG advanced controls=0, Rate to achieve max action for

1/year



Parameter Definition Unitsother GHGs, Rate of change of prodution ratio[ProductionSector]))/"100 percent"*Production ratio[ProductionSector]

Total rate of change in intensity of production[ProductionSector]

Total percent change per year in emissions intensity of agriculture and waste due to technology and behavior. If Use OGHG advanced controls=0 (default), this rate is the negative of the Percent of max action for other GHGs

percent/year

ProductionSector,Minor GHGs

IF THEN ELSE(Time<Year to change rates of production intensity, Historic rate of change in intensity from changing diets[ProductionSector,Minor GHGs]+Historic rate of change in intensity from technology [ProductionSector], IF THEN ELSE(Use OGHG advanced controls=0, Rate to achieve max action for other GHGs, Rate of change in production intensity

[ProductionSector]))

ProductionSector,gCO2

IF THEN ELSE(Time<Year to change rates of production intensity, Historic rate of change in intensity from changing diets[ProductionSector,gCO2]+Historic rate of change in intensity from technology[ProductionSector], Rate of change in production intensity[ProductionSector])

Rate to achieve max action for other GHGs

Rate per year to achieve the maximum action for other GHGs by the target year.

LN(MAX(min ln term, 1-Percent of max action for other GHGs/"100 percent"))/MAX(One year, Other emissions target year-Other emissions start year)*"100 percent"

Percent/Year

Effect on production intensity [ProductionSector,GHG type]

Multiplier to calculate emissions from agriculture and waste reflecting changes in practices , use or availablitiy of technology

INTEG(Change in production intensity[ProductionSector,GHG

Dmnl



Parameter Definition Unitstype], 1)

Change in production intensity [ProductionSector,GHG type]

Annual change in emissions intensity of agriculture aand waste due to behavior and technology

Total rate of change in intensity of production[ProductionSector,GHG type]/"100 percent"*Effect on production intensity[ProductionSector,GHG type]

1/year

Initial GHG emissions from production [ProductionSector,GHG type]

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Reference intensity of production [ProductionSector,GHG type]

Reference emissions per unit of production from agriculture and waste in terms of CO2eq. Defaults to 0 for all but CH4 and N2O.

GtonsCO2eq/Gt

Agriculture,GHG type Initial GHG emissions from production[Agriculture,GHG type]/Agricultural production

Waste, GHG type Initial GHG emissions from production[Waste,GHG type]/Waste production

Emissions intensity of production [ProductionSector,GHG type]

Emissions per unit of production from agriculture and waste in terms of CO2eq. Defaults to 0 for all but CH4 and N2O.

Reference intensity of production[ProductionSector,GHG type]*Effect on production intensity[ProductionSector,GHG type]

GtonsCO2eq/Gt

GHG emissions from agriculture[GHG type]

Emissions of each GHG from agriculture. Defaults to 0 for all but CH4 and N2O.

Agricultural production*Emissions intensity of production[Agriculture,GHG type]

GtonsCO2eq/Year

GHG emissions from waste[GHG type]

Production of GHG from waste (sewage, landfill, etc). Defaults to 0 for all but CH4 and N2O.

GtonsCO2eq/Year



Parameter Definition UnitsWaste production*Emissions intensity of production[Waste,GHG

type]


7.4 Land Use CO2 Emissions

As shown in Figure 7.67, emissions from land use and land use change and forestry (LULUCF) are defined by the bounds of the specified Business as Usual (BAU) trajectory and the least probable trajectory based on a maximum likely reduction rate. Reductions reflect global results curbing deforestation and growing more trees. The trajectory from BAU is defined by the Target percent below BAU of LULUCF in two phases.

The BAU of LULUCF is taken from the default C-ROADS reference scenario. Specifically, the default BAU of LULUCF uses historic data from FAO (2016) through 2012 and assumes the global net emissions follow that of the IPCC’s RCP8.5. The BAU of other GHGs is based on the IPCC’s A1FI emissions scenario. Both variables are inputted into the En- ROADS data model as data variables and then into En-ROADS as data variables.

7.5 Specified Emissions

It is also possible to directly test the effect of varying CO2 and other GHG emissions through specified emissions reductions starting and stopping in given years.


Figure 7.67 CO2 Emissions from Land Use

LULUCFemissions

Ratio of LULUCFto BAU

Ratio of LULUCF toBAU phase 1 Ratio of LULUCF to

BAU phase 2

<Start year for otheremissions phase 2>

<Time>

<100 percent>Calculated rate of

LULUCF reductions

<Other emissionsstart year>

Target percent belowBAU of LULUCF

<Years to delay>

Calculated rate ofLULUCF reductions

phase 2

Ratio of LULUCF toBAU at transition year

<Start year for otheremissions phase 2>

Other emissionstarget year

<100 percent>

<FINAL TIME>

Target percent below BAUof LULUCF phase 2

<One year>

<Other emissionstarget year><Years to delay>

<CO2 Emissions fromLULUCF specified>

<Test emissions>

<Calibration net land useCO2 Emissions avg>

<EMF scenario>

<BAU CO2 forestrynet emissions>


Table 7-74 Emissions from Land Use and Specified Emissions Parametric Inputs


Target percent below BAU of LULUCF

Percent below BAU of LULUCF to be achieved by the target year, where 0 is the "business as usual" future. 0-99 0

Percent

Target percent below BAU of LULUCF phase 2

Percent below BAU of LULUCF to be achieved by the final year, where 0 is the "business as usual" future. 0-99 0

Percent

Other emissions cut start timeYear to start the LULUCF and other GHG reductions. 2017-2100 2017 Year

Other emissions target yearYear to achieve the LULUCF and other GHG reductions. 2017-2100 2050 Year

Years to delayYears to ramp up to full effort of reduction. 1-5 5 Years

Test emissions

Allows for testing of specified emissions trajectories. When set to 1, specified emissions override emissions determined from energy decisions, LULUCF decisions, and other GHG emissions decisions. 0-1 0

Dmnl

Emissions stop growth year

The year when the emissions stop increasing, set to 2100 if no reduction planned, i.e., BAU; composite of individual inputs. 2017-2100 2100

Year

Emissions reduction start year

The year when the emissions start to decrease if the stop growth year has been reached; composite of individual inputs. 2017-2100 2100

Year

Annual emissions reduction

The annual rate at which emissions decrease, set at 0 if no reduction planned, i.e., BAU; composite of individual inputs. 0-10 0

Percent/year

Figure 7.68 Emissions Specified

CO2 Emissionsspecified

RelativeReductionEmissions

Reduction

Annual emissionsreduction

Emissions reductionstart year

Emissions stopgrowth year

<100 percent>

Other GHGEmissions specified Other GHG Emissions

with Stopped Growth

<TIME STEP>

<Time>

CO2 Emissions fromLULUCF with Stopped

Growth

CO2 Emissions fromLULUCF specified

<TIME STEP>

<Time>

<Emissions stopgrowth year>

<BAU CO2 forestrynet emissions>

<Total GHGemissions by GHG>


Table 7-75. Emissions from Land Use and Specified Emissions Calculated Parameters


LULUCF emissions

CO2 emissions from land use. Defined by the specified emissions of LULUCF if Test emissions = 1; otherwise defined by the selected BAU and the ratio of LULUCF to BAU.

IF THEN ELSE(Test emissions, CO2 Emissions from LULUCF specified, Selected BAU CO2 forestry net emissions*Ratio of LULUCF to BAU)

GtonsCO2/Year

BAU CO2 forestry net emissions Data variable from En-ROADS Data model, where data variable is taken from C-ROADS v5.003 GtonsCO2/Year

Ratio of LULUCF to BAUIF THEN ELSE(Time<=Start year for other emissions phase 2,

Ratio of LULUCF to BAU phase 1, Ratio of LULUCF to BAU phase 2)

Dmnl

Ratio of LULUCF to BAU phase 1

Ratio of LULUCF to the BAU emissions in phase 1.

MAX(delay3(EXP(MAX(0,Time-Other emissions cut start time)*Calculated rate of LULUCF reductions), Years to delay),1-Target percent below BAU of LULUCF/"100 percent")

Dmnl

Ratio of LULUCF to BAU phase 2

Ratio of LULUCF to the BAU emissions in phase 2.

EXP(MAX(0,Time-Start year for other emissions phase 2)*Calculated rate of LULUCF reductions phase 2)*(Ratio of LULUCF to BAU at transition year)

Dmnl

Calculated rate of LULUCF reductions

Calculated annual rate of reduction of LULUCF to achieve the phase 1 target below BAU.

ZIDZ(LN(("100 percent"-Target percent below BAU of

1/year


LULUCF)/"100 percent"),MAX(One year, Other emissions target year-Other emissions cut start time-Years to delay))

Calculated rate of LULUCF reductions phase 2

Calculated annual rate of reduction of LULUCF to achieve the phase 2 target below BAU.

ZIDZ(LN((1-Target percent below BAU of LULUCF phase 2/"100 percent")/Ratio of LULUCF to BAU at transition year),FINAL TIME - Start year for other emissions phase 2)

1/year

Ratio of LULUCF to BAU at transition year

The starting ratio of LULUCF to BAU at the start of phase 2 of reductions.

EXP(MAX(0,MIN(Start year for other emissions phase 2, Other emissions target year)-Other emissions cut start time-Years to delay)*Calculated rate of LULUCF reductions)

Dmnl

Other GHG emissions

Emissions of nonCO2 GHGs in terms of CO2eq. Defined by the specified emissions of other GHGs if Test emissions = 1; otherwise defined as functions of energy production , energy consumption capital, agriculture, and waste.

IF THEN ELSE(Test emissions, SUM(Other GHG Emissions specified[Minor GHGs!]), SUM(GHG emissions from OGHG structures[Minor GHGs!]))

GtonsCO2eq/Year

Other GHG Emissions specified[GHG type]

The GHG emissions at each time is the value until the FF stop growth year, Only after emission growth has ceased do the reductions based on the Relative Reduction apply.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Emissions stop growth year,Total GHG emissions by GHG[GHG type],Other GHG Emissions with Stopped Growth[GHG type]*Relative Reduction)

GtonsCO2eq/Year

"Land use & minor gas emissions" LULUCF emissions+Other GHG emissions GtonsCO2eq/Year

CO2 EmissionsIF THEN ELSE(Test emissions, CO2 Emissions specified, CO2

emissions from energy+LULUCF emissions+CO2 emissions from UA)

GtonsCO2/Year


CO2 Equivalent Emissions CO2 Emissions+Other GHG emissions GtonsCO2eq/Year


8. Carbon cycle

8.1.1 Introduction

The carbon cycle sub-model is adapted from the FREE model (Fiddaman, 1997). While the original FREE structure is based on primary sources that are now somewhat dated, we find that they hold up well against recent data. Calibration experiments against recent data and other models do not provide compelling reasons to adjust the model structure or parameters, though in the future we will likely do so.

Other models in current use include simple carbon cycle representations. Nordhaus’ DICE models, for example, use simple first- and third-order linear models (Nordhaus, 1994, 2000). The first-order model is usefully simple, but does not capture nonlinearities (e.g., sink saturation) or explicitly conserve carbon. The third-order model conserves carbon but is still linear and thus not robust to high emissions scenarios. More importantly for education and decision support, neither model provides a recognizable carbon flow structure, particularly for biomass.

Socolow and Lam (2007) explore a set of simple linear carbon cycle models to characterize possible emissions trajectories, including the effect of procrastination. The spirit of their analysis is similar to ours, except that the models are linear (sensibly, for tractability) and the calibration approach differs. Socolow and Lam calibrate to Green’s function (convolution integral) approximations of the 2x CO2 response of larger models; this yields a calibration for lower-order variants that emphasizes long-term dynamics. Our calibration is weighted towards recent data, which is truncated, and thus likely emphasizes faster dynamics. Nonlinearities in the C-ROADS carbon uptake mechanisms mean that the 4x CO2 response will not be strictly double the 2xCO2 response.

8.1.2 Structure

The adapted FREE carbon cycle (Figure 8.69) is an eddy diffusion model with stocks of carbon in the atmosphere, biosphere, mixed ocean layer, and three deep ocean layers. The model couples the atmosphere-mixed ocean layer interactions and net primary production of the Goudriaan and Kettner and IMAGE 1.0 models (Goudriaan and Ketner 1984; Rotmans 1990) with a 5-layer eddy diffusion ocean based on (Oeschger, Siegenthaler et al., 1975) and a 2-box biosphere based on (Goudriaan and Ketner 1984).

In the FREE model, all emissions initially accumulate in the atmosphere. As the atmospheric concentration of C rises, the uptake of C by the ocean and biosphere increases, and carbon is gradually stored. The atmospheric flux to the biosphere consists of net primary production, which grows logarithmically as the atmospheric concentration of C increases (Wullschleger, Post et al., 1995), according to:

En-ROADS simulator Model Reference GuideEq. 1

NPP = net primary production Ca = C in atmosphereNPP0 = reference net primary production Ca,0 = reference C in atmosphereb = biostimulation coefficient

Because the relationship is logarithmic, the uptake of C by the biosphere is less than proportional to the increase in atmospheric C concentration. Effects of the current biomass stock, and human disturbance are neglected. The flux of C from the atmosphere to biomass decreases with rising temperatures. We assume a linear relationship, likely a good approximation over the typical range for warming by 2100. The sensitivity parameter, set by the user, governs the strength of the effect. The default sensitivity of 1 yields the average value found in Friedlingstein et al., 2006.

It is worth noting that this formulation, though commonly used, is not robust to large deviations in the atmospheric concentration of C. As the atmospheric concentration of C approaches zero, net primary production approaches minus infinity, which is not possible given the finite positive stock of biomass. As the concentration of C becomes very high, net primary production can grow arbitrarily large, which is also not possible in reality. Neither of these constraints is a problem for reasonable model trajectories, though.

The Goudriaan and Ketner and IMAGE models (Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984; Rotmans, 1990) have detailed biospheres, partitioned into leaves, branches, stems, roots, litter, humus, and charcoal. To simplify the model, these categories are aggregated into stocks of biomass (leaves, branches, stems, roots) and humus (litter, humus). Aggregate first-order time constants were calculated for each category on the basis of their equilibrium stock-flow relationships. Charcoal is neglected due to its long lifetime. The results are reasonably consistent with other partitionings of the biosphere and with the one-box biosphere of the Oeschger model (Oeschger, Siegenthaler et al., 1975; Bolin, 1986).

Eq. 2

Cb = carbon in biomass b = biomass residence time


Ch = carbon in biomass h = humus residence time = humidification fraction

The interaction between the atmosphere and mixed ocean layer involves a shift in chemical equilibria (Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984). CO2 in the ocean reacts to produce HCO3– and CO3=. In equilibrium,

Eq. 4

Cm = C in mixed ocean layer Cm,0 = reference C in mixed ocean layerCa = C in atmosphere Ca,0 = reference C in atmosphere

= buffer factor

The atmosphere and mixed ocean adjust to this equilibrium with a time constant of 1 year. The buffer or Revelle factor, , is typically about 10. As a result, the partial pressure of CO2 in the ocean rises about 10 times faster than the total concentration of carbon (Fung, 1991). This means that the ocean, while it initially contains about 60 times as much carbon as the preindustrial atmosphere, behaves as if it were only 6 times as large.

The buffer factor itself rises with the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984; Rotmans, 1990) and temperature (Fung, 1991). This means that the ocean’s capacity to absorb CO2 diminishes as the atmospheric concentration rises. This temperature effect is another of several possible feedback mechanisms between the climate and carbon cycle. The fractional reduction in the solubility of CO2 in ocean falls with rising temperatures. Likewise for the temperature feedback on C flux to biomass, we assume a linear relationship, likely a good approximation over the typical range for warming by 2100. The sensitivity parameter that governs the strength of the effect on the flux to the biomass also governs the strength of the effect on the flux to the ocean. For both effects, the default sensitivity of 1 yields the average values found in Friedlingstein et al., 2006.


= buffer factor Ca = CO2 in atmosphereb = buffer CO2 coefficient Ca,0 = reference CO2 in atmosphere0 = reference buffer factor

The deep ocean is represented by a simple eddy-diffusion structure similar to that in the Oeschger model, but with fewer layers (Oeschger, Siegenthaler et al., 1975). Effects of ocean circulation and carbon precipitation, present in more complex models (Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984; Björkstrom, 1986; Rotmans, 1990; Keller and Goldstein, 1995), are neglected. Within the ocean, transport of carbon among ocean layers operates linearly. The flux of carbon between two layers of identical thickness is expressed by:

Eq. 6

Fm,n = carbon flux from layer m to layer n e = eddy diffusion coefficient

Ck = carbon in layer k d = depth of layers

The effective time constant for this interaction varies with d, the thickness of the ocean layers. To account for layer thicknesses that are not identical, the time constant uses the mean thickness of two adjacent layers. Table 8-76 summarizes time constants for the interaction between the layers used in C-ROADS, which employs a 100 meter mixed layer, and four deep ocean layers that are 300, 300, 1300, eand 1800 meters, sequentially deeper. Simulation experiments show there is no material difference in the atmosphere-ocean flux between the five-layer ocean and more disaggregate structures, including an 11-layer ocean, at least through the model time horizon of 2100.

Table 8-76: Effective Time Constants for Ocean Carbon Transport

Layer Thickness Time Constant

100 meters 1 year

300 meters 14 years

300 meters 20 years

1300 meters 236 years

1800 meters 634 years


Figure 8.69 Carbon Cycle

Preindustrial C

C inAtmosphere

C in MixedLayer

C in DeepOcean

Flux Atm to Ocean

Diffusion Flux

<Layer Depth>

<Mixed Depth>

C in Humus

C in Biomass

Flux Atm to Biomass

Biomass Res Time

Init NPP

Buffer Factor

Equil C in Mixed Layer

Mixing Time Preind C in Mixed Layer

Ref Buffer Factor

Buff C Coeff

Flux Biomass to Atmosphere

HumificationFraction

Humus Res Time

Flux Biomass to Humus

Flux Humus toAtmosphere

Init C inAtmosphere

Init C in MixedOcean

Init C in DeepOcean

C in deep oceanper meter

Init C in Humus

Init C in Biomass

C AFSequestered

Global adjusted Cemissions

CarbonSequestration

Biostim coeff index

Atm conc CO2

<ppm CO2 perGtonC>

Init C sequestered

<CO2 per C>

Strength of Temp Effecton C Flux to Land

Net Sequestration

Emiss from storage

Biostim coeff

Eddy diff coeff

Eddy diff mean

Sensitivity of C Uptaketo Temperature

Effect of Warming onC flux to biomass

C in mixed layerper meter Preind Ocean C

per meterLayer TimeConstant

Effect of Temp onDIC pCO2 Sensitivity of pCO2

DIC to Temperature

C from CH4oxidationCH4 per C

Mtons per Gtons

Strength of temp effecton land C flux mean

Sensitivity of pCO2 DICto Temperature Mean

Mean Depth ofAdjacent Layers

Equilibrium C permeter in Mixed Layer

<Equil C in MixedLayer>

<Layer Depth>

<Mixed Depth>

Flux Biomass toCH4

Flux Humus toCH4

Flux Biosphere toCH4

CH4 Generation Ratefrom Biomass

CH4 Generation Ratefrom Humus

Sensitivity of MethaneEmissions to Temperature

Effect of Warming on CH4Release from Biological

Activity

Reference Temperature Changefor Effect of Warming on CH4

from Respiration

<Effect of Warming on CH4Release from Biological

Activity>

Indirect CO2 inCH4 accounting

Fraction of anthro CH4emissions included in indirect

CO2 accounts

<CO2 per C>

Eddy diff coeffindex

<TIME STEP>

CO2 Emissionsin C

<CH4 Uptake> <Temp change frompreindust>

<Temp change frompreindust>

Biostim CoeffMean

<CO2 Emissions><CO2 per C>

<Flux C frompermafrost release>

<Emiss fromstorage by type>

<Totalsequestration>

<Total anthropogenicglobal CH4 emissions>


Table 8-77 Carbon Cycle Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition RS Units SourcePreindustrial C Preindustrial CO2 content of atmosphere. 590 GtonsCBiomass residence time

Average residence time of carbon in biomass. 10.6 Year Adapted from Goudriaan, 1984

Biostim coeff index Index of coefficient for response of primary production to carbon concentration, as multiplying factor of the mean value.

1 Dmnl

Biostim ceoeff mean Mean coefficient for response of primary production to CO2 concentration.

0.42 Dmnl Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984; Rotmans, 1990, AR5, 2013

Humification Fraction

Fraction of carbon outflow from biomass that enters humus stock.

0.428 Dmnl Adapted from Goudriaan, 1984

Humus Res Time Average carbon residence time in humus. 27.8 Year Adapted from Goudriaan, 1984

Buff C coeff Coefficient of C concentration influence on buffer factor.

3.92 Dmnl Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984

Ref buffer factor. Normal buffer factor. 9.7 Dmnl Goudriaan and Ketner, 1984

Mixing Time Atmosphere - mixed ocean layer mixing time. 1 YearEddy diff coeff index Index of coefficient for rate at which carbon is

mixed in the ocean due to eddy motion, where 1 is equivalent to the expected value of 4400 meter/meter/year.

1 Dmnl Expected eddy diff coeff from Oeschger, Siegenthaler et al., 1975

Mixed depth Mixed ocean layer depth. 100 Meters Oeschger, Siegenthaler et al., 1975

Preind Ocean C per meter

Corresponds with 767.8 GtC in a 75m layer. 10.2373 GtonsC/meter

Layer Depth[layers] Deep ocean layer thicknesses.1234

300300

13001800

MetersMetersMetersMeters



Parameter Definition RS Units SourceInit NPP Initial net primary production 85.1771 GtonsC/year Adapted from Goudriaan,

1984Ppm CO2 per TonsC 1 ppm by volume of atmosphere CO2 = 2.13 Gt C 0.4695e ppm/GtonsC CDIAC

(http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/convert.html)

Fractional Loss of Afforestation Biomass

Fraction of C in afforestation biomass lost back into atmosphere

0.01 Dmnl

Goal for CO2 in the atmosphere

Assumed threshold of CO2 in atmosphere above which irreversible climate changes may occur

450 Ppm

Sensitivity of C Uptake to Temperature

Allows users to control the strength of the feedback effect of temperature on uptake of C by land and oceans. 0 means no temperature-carbon uptake feedback and default of 1 yields the average values found in Friedlingstein et al., 2006.

0-2.5(Default = 1)

Dmnl

Strength of temp effect on land C flux mean

Average effect of temperature on flux of carbon to land. Calibrated to be consistent with Friedlingstein et al., 2006. Default Sensitivity of C Uptake to Temperature of 1 corresponds to mean value from the 11 models tested.

-0.01 1/DegreesC Friedlingstein et al., 2006

Sensitivity of pCO2 DIC to Temperature Mean

Sensitivity of equilibrium concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon to temperature. Calibrated to be consistent with Friedlingstein et al., 2006. Default Sensitivity of C Uptake to Temperature of 1 corresponds to mean value from the 11 models tested.

0.003 1/DegreesC Friedlingstein et al., 2006

CH4 Generation Rate from Humus

The rate of the natural flux of methane from C in humus. The sum of the flux of methane from C in humus and the flux of methane from C in biomass yields the natural emissions of methane.

8e-005 1/year

CH4 Generation Rate The rate of the natural flux of methane from C in 8e-005 1/year



Parameter Definition RS Units Sourcefrom Biomass biomass. The sum of the flux of methane from C

in humus and the flux of methane from C in biomass yields the natural emissions of methane.

Fraction of anthro CH4 emissions included in indirect CO2 accounts

Accounts for CO2 emissions that are already included in the CH4 emissions.

0.8 Dmnl Estimated from EPA 2011 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/international.html

CH4 per C Molar mass ratio of CH4 to C, 16/12 1.33 Mtons/MtonsC

Mtons per Gtons Converts MtonsC to GtonsC. 1000 MtonsC/GtonsC

Sensitivity of Methane Emissions to Temperature

Allows users to control the strength of the feedback effect of temperature on release of C as CH4 from humus. Default of 0 means no temperature feedback and 1 is mean feedback.

0-2.5(Default = 0)

Dmnl

Reference Temperature Change for Effect of Warming on CH4 from Respiration

Temperature change at which the C as CH4 release from humus doubles for the Sensitivity of Methane Emissions to Temperature=1.

5 DegreesC

Sensitivity of Afforestation Biomass Loss

Controls the rate at which C in biomass on afforested lands returns to the atmosphere through decay and wildfire. Default of 1 gives the reference rate. Users can select any value they wish to examine the sensitivity of results to the durability of C sequestration by afforestation.

0-2.5(Default = 1)

Dmnl

Init C in Atmosphere Initial carbon in atmosphere 755.11 GtonsC From 1990 C-ROADS data

Init C in Humus Initial carbon in humus. 1067 GtonsC From 1990 C-ROADS data



Parameter Definition RS Units SourceInit C in Biomass Initial carbon in biomass 977.05 GtonsC From 1990 C-ROADS

dataInit C in Mixed Ocean

Initial carbon in mixed ocean layer. 1045 GtonsC From 1990 C-ROADS data

Init C in Deep Ocean[layers]

Initial carbon concentration in deep ocean layers. 3115, 3099, 13356, 18477

GtonsC From 1990 C-ROADS data


Table 8-78 Carbon Cycle Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsAtm conc CO2[scenario] Converts weight of CO2 in atmosphere (GtonsC) to concentration (ppm

CO2).

CO2 in Atmosphere[scenario]*ppm CO2 per GtonC

Ppm

Flux Atm to Ocean[ scenario] Carbon flux from atmosphere to mixed ocean layer, including feedback from temperature change (where default is set for no feedback).

((Equil C in Mixed Layer[ scenario]-C in Mixed Layer[ scenario])/Mixing Time)

GtonsC/year

Flux Atm to Biomass[ scenario]

Carbon flux from atmosphere to biosphere (from primary production), including feedback from temperature change (where default is set for no feedback).

Init NPP*(1+Biostim coeff*LN(C in Atmosphere[ scenario]/Preindustrial C))*Effect of Warming on C flux to biomass[scenario]

GtonsC/year

Biostim Coeff Coefficient for response of primary production to carbon concentration, based on index and mean.

INITIAL(Biostim coeff index*Biostim coeff mean)

Dmnl

Effect of Warming on C flux to biomass[scenario]

Feedback from temperature on carbon flux from atmosphere to the biomass.

1+Strength of Temp Effect on C Flux to Land*Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]

GtonsC

Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]

Change in temperature relative to preindustrial times. See Section 9. DegreesC

Flux Biomass to Atmosphere[scenario]

Carbon flux from biomass to atmosphere.

CO2 in Biomass[scenario]/Biomass Res Time*(1-Humification

GtonsC/year



Parameter Definition UnitsFraction)

Flux Biomass to Humus[scenario]

Carbon flux from biomass to humus.

CO2 in Biomass[scenario]/Biomass Res Time*Humification Fraction

GtonsC/year

Flux Humus to Atmosphere[ scenario]

Carbon flux from humus to atmosphere.

CO2 in Humus[ scenario]/Humus Res Time

GtonsC/year

Global adjusted CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions from FF (includes cement) and forestry, net of indirect CO2 in CH4 accounts, which will be emitted later via CH4 oxidation.

MAX(0, CO2 Emissions in C-Indirect CO2 in CH4 accounting/CO2 per C)

GtonsC/year

C in Atmosphere[scenario] Mass of carbon in the atmosphere.

INTEG(C from CH4 oxidation[scenario]+Emiss from storage[scenario]+Flux Biomass to Atmosphere[scenario]+Flux Humus to Atmosphere[scenario]+Global total C emissions-Carbon Sequestration[scenario]-Flux Atm to Biomass[scenario]-Flux Atm to Ocean[scenario], Init C in Atmosphere)

GtonsC

C in Humus[scenario] Carbon in humus.

INTEG(Flux Biomass to Humus[scenario]-Flux Humus to Atmosphere[scenario]-Flux Humus to CH4[scenario], Init C in Humus)

GtonsC

C in Biomass[ scenario] Carbon in the biomass.

INTEG(Flux Atm to Biomass[scenario]-Flux Biomass to Atmosphere[scenario]-Flux Biomass to CH4[scenario]-Flux Biomass to Humus[scenario], Init C in Biomass)

GtonsC

C in Mixed Layer[ scenario] Carbon in the mixed layer.

INTEG(Flux Atm to Ocean[ scenario]-Diffusion Flux [scenario, layer1],

GtonsC



Parameter Definition UnitsInit C in Mixed Ocean per meter[scenario]*Mixed Depth)

C in Deep Ocean[ scenario, layers]

Carbon in deep ocean. GtonsC

C in Deep Ocean[ scenario, upper]

INTEG(Diffusion Flux[ scenario, upper]-Diffusion Flux[ scenario, lower], Init C in Deep Ocean per meter[scenario,upper]*Layer Depth[upper])

C in Deep Ocean[scenario, bottom]

INTEG(Diffusion Flux[scenario, bottom], Init C in Deep Ocean per meter[scenario,bottom]*Layer Depth[bottom])

Equil C in Mixed Layer[scenario]

Equilibrium carbon content of mixed layer. Determined by the Revelle buffering factor, and by temperature. For simplicity, we assume a linear impact of warming on the equilibrium solubility of CO2 in the ocean. The user controls the strength of that effect.

Preind C in Mixed Layer*Effect of Temp on DIC pCO2[scenario]*(C in Atmosphere[ scenario]/Preindustrial C)^(1/Buffer Factor[scenario])

GtonsC

Buffer Factor[scenario] Buffer factor for atmosphere/mixed ocean carbon equilibration.

ACTIVE INITIAL(Ref Buffer Factor*(C in Mixed Layer[scenario]/Preind C in Mixed Layer)^Buff C Coeff, Ref Buffer Factor)

Dmnl

Preind C in Mixed Layer Initial carbon concentration of mixed ocean layer.

INITIAL(Preind Ocean C per meter*Mixed Depth)

GtonsC

Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[layers]

The mean depth of adjacent ocean layers. Meters

Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[layer1]

INITIAL((Mixed Depth+Layer Depth[layer1])/2)

Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[lower]

INITIAL((Layer Depth[upper]+Layer Depth[lower])/2)



Parameter Definition UnitsDiffusion Flux[ scenario, layers]

Diffusion flux between 5 ocean layers. GtonsC/year

Diffusion Flux[layer1] (C in mixed layer per meter[scenario]-C in deep ocean per meter[ scenario,layer1])*Eddy diff coeff/Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[layer1]

Diffusion Flux[ scenario, lower]

(C in deep ocean per meter[ scenario,upper]-C in deep ocean per meter[scenario,lower])*Eddy diff coeff/Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[lower]

Eddy Diff Coeff Rate at which carbon is mixed in the ocean due to eddy motion, based on index and mean.

INITIAL(Eddy diff coeff index*Eddy diff mean)

meter*meter/year

Layer Time Constant[layers] Time constant of exchange between layers. YearLayer Time

Constant[ scenario, layer1]INITIAL(Layer Depth[layer1]/(Eddy diff coeff/Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[layer1]))

Layer Time Constant[ scenario, lower]

INITIAL(Layer Depth[lower]/(Eddy diff coeff/Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[lower]))

Effect of Temp on DIC pCO2[scenario]

The fractional reduction in the solubility of CO2 in ocean falls with rising temperatures. We assume a linear relationship, likely a good approximation over the typical range for warming by 2100.

1-Sensitivity of pCO2 DIC to Temperature*Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]

Dmnl

Sensitivity of pCO2 DIC to Temperature

Sensitivity of pCO2 of dissolved inorganic carbon in ocean to temperature.

INITIAL(Sensitivity of C Uptake to Temperature*Sensitivity of pCO2 DIC to Temperature Mean)

1/DegreesC

Strength of Temp Effect on C Flux to Land

Strength of temperature effect on C flux to the land.

INITIAL(Sensitivity of C Uptake to Temperature*Strength of temp

1/DegreesC



Parameter Definition Unitseffect on land C flux mean)

Effect of Warming on C flux to biomass[scenario]

The fractional reduction in the flux of C from the atmosphere to biomass with rising temperatures. We assume a linear relationship, likely a good approximation over the typical range for warming by 2100.

1+Strength of Temp Effect on C Flux to Land*Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]

Dmnl

Flux Humus to CH4[scenario] The natural flux of methane from C in humus. The sum of the flux of methane from C in humus and the flux of methane from C in biomass yields the natural emissions of methane. Adjusted to account for temperature feedback.

C in Humus[scenario]*CH4 Generation Rate from Humus*Effect of Warming on CH4 Release from Biological Activity[scenario]

GtonsC/year

Effect of Warming on CH4 Release from Biological Activity[scenario]

The fractional increase in the flux of C as CH4 from humus with rising temperatures. We assume a linear relationship, likely a good approximation over the typical range for warming by 2100.

1+Sensitivity of Methane Emissions to Temperature*(Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario])/(Reference Temperature Change for Effect of Warming on CH4 from Respiration)

Dmnl

Flux Biomass to CH4[scenario]

The natural flux of methane from C in biomass. The sum of the flux of methane from C in humus and the flux of methane from C in biomass yields the natural emissions of methane. Adjusted to account for temperature feedback.

C in Biomass[scenario]*CH4 Generation Rate from Biomass*Effect of Warming on CH4 Release from Biological Activity[scenario]

GtonsC/year

Flux Biosphere to CH4[scenario]

Carbon flux from biosphere as methane, in GtC/year, arising from anaerobic respiration.

GtonsC/year



Parameter Definition UnitsFlux Biomass to CH4[scenario]+Flux Humus to CH4[scenario]

C from CH4 oxidation[scenario]

Flux of C into the atmosphere from the oxidation of CH4, the mode of removal of CH4 from atmosphere.

CH4 Uptake[scenario]/CH4 per C/Mtons per Gtons

GtonsC/year

Indirect CO2 in CH4 accounting

Indirect CO2 emissions included in accounting data that occurs due to oxidation of CH4; in this model the indirect emissions are explicit from the methane cycle, and therefore are deducted from the CO2 accounting to correct the data. Also includes emissions for which CH4 represents recently-extracted biomass (e.g. enteric fermentation).

Total anthropogenic global CH4 emissions/CH4 per C/Mtons per Gtons*CO2 per C*Fraction of anthro CH4 emissions included in indirect CO2 accounts

GtonsCO2/year

AF C sequestration[scenario] Global AF removals in C GtonsC/yearNet sequestration[scenario] Difference between sequestration and emissions released from storage.

AF and Tech sequestration not distinguished from each other in C-Learn.

AF C Sequestration[ scenario]-Emiss from storage[scenario]+Tech C sequestration[scenario]

Gtons C/year

C AF Sequestered[scenario] Accumulated net sequestered from AF.

INTEG(AF C Sequestration[scenario]-Emiss from storage[scenario], Init C sequestered)

Gtons C

Emiss from Storage[scenario] Loss of CO2 from sequestered storage back into atmosphere.

AF C Sequesteration[scenario]*Fractional Loss of Afforestation Biomass

Gtons C/year


8.2 Other greenhouse gases

8.2.1 Other GHGs included in CO2equivalent emissions

En-ROADS explicitly models other well–mixed greenhouses gases, including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and the fluorinated gases (PFCs, SF6, and HFCs). PFCs are represented as CF4-equivalents due to the comparably long lifetimes of the various PFC types. HFCs, on the other hand, are represented as an array of the nine primary HFC types, each with its own parameters. The structure of each GHG’s cycle reflects first order dynamics, such that the gas is emitted at a given rate and is taken up from the atmosphere according to its concentrationnd its time constant. Initialization is based on 1990 levels according to C-ROADS 3.008. The remaining mass in the atmosphere is converted, according to its molecular weight, to the concentration of that gas. The multiplication of each gas concentration by the radiative coefficient of the gas yields its instantaneous radiative forcing (RF). This RF is included in the sum of all RFs to determine the total RF on the system.

For those explicitly modeled GHGs, the CO2 equivalent emissions of each gas are calculated by multiplying its emissions by its 100-year Global Warming Potential. Time constants, radiative forcing coefficients, and the GWP are taken from the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Working Group 1 Chapter 2. (Table 2.14. Lifetimes, radiative efficiencies and direct (except for CH4) GWPs relative to CO2).

In addition to the anthropogenic emissions considered as part of the CO2 equivalent emissions, CH4, N2O, and PFCs also have a natural component. The global natural CH4 and N2O emissions are based on MAGICC output, using the remaining emissions in their “zero emissions” scenario. The global natural PFC emissions are calculated by dividing Preindustrial mass of CF4 equivalents by the time constant for CF4. Figure 8.70 illustrates the general GHG cycle. Historical and projected emissions of the well-mixed GHGs other than CO2 for a chosen reference scenario are taken from C-ROADS. These emissions are inputted into the En-ROADS data model as lookup tables and then into En-ROADS as data variables.

able 8-79 provides the general equations for the other GHGs, with each gas modeled as its own structure. The units of each gas are: MtonsCH4, MtonsN2O-N, tonsCF4, tonsSF6, and tonsHFC for each of the primary HFC types. To calculate the CO2 equivalent emissions of N2O, the model first converts the emissions from MtonsN2O-N/year to Mtons N2O/year.

CH4 is unique in that there are additional natural emissions from permafrost and clathrate and additional anthropogenic emissions due to the leakage of CH4 from natural gas.


Figure 8.70 Other GHG cycle

GHG

Time Const forGHG

Preindustrial GHG

ppt GHG perTons GHGGHG atm conc

PreindustrialGHG conc

GHG radiativeefficiency

GHG RF

ppt per ppb

Global GHGemissions

<GHG emissions>

Natural GHGemissions

Global Total GHGemissions

GHG molar mass

<g per ton>

<ppt per mol>

GHG uptake

Figure 8.71 CH4 cycle

Global RS CH4emissions

CH4 in AtmCH4 Uptake

Natural CH4Emissions

Initial CH4

ppb CH4 perMton CH4

CH4 atm conc

Initial CH4 conc

Anthropogenic globalCH4 emissions

CH4 molar mass

<g per ton><ppt per mol>

<ton per Mton>

<ppt per ppb>

CH4 FractionalUptake

Time Const forCH4

Reference uptake

OH path shareCH4

CH4 chem pathshare

Temperature Threshold forMethane Emissions fromPermafrost and Clathrate

Reference Sensitivity of CH4from Permafrost and Clathrate

to TemperatureSensitivity of MethaneEmissions to Permafrost and

Clathrate

Global CH4emissions

Total anthropogenicglobal CH4 emissions

CH4 Emissions fromPermafrost and Clathrate

<CH4 per C>

<Flux Biosphere toCH4>

<Mtons perGtons>

<Temp change frompreindust>

<NonCO2emissions vs BAU>

Percent CH4 leakagefrom natural gas

CH4 leakage fromnatural gas

<100 percent>

Convert MMbtu totons CH4

<TJ per EJ><ton per Mton>

Percent CH4 leakagefrom natural gas phase 2Percent CH4

leakage

<R&D delaytime>

<Time> <Start year for phase 2>

<Test emissions>

CH4 leakage fromnatural gas from percent

<MMbtu per TJ>

<Primary energydemand of gas>

<Calibration CH4emissions avg>

<EMF scenario> <y2010>

BAU CH4 fromleakage

<One year>

<CH4 leakageemissions specified>


Table 8-79 Calculated Parameters of Other GHG Cycles


Global GHG Emissions

For GHGs with anthropogenic and natural components (CH4, N2O, PFC), this sums the two components together to determine the total flux into the atmospheric: Otherwise, this is the sum of the GHG emissions for each COP bloc.

In En-ROADS Pro, to test the EMF22 Scenarios, the average of the EMF22 models with available GHG projections overrides emissions.

Global RS N2O emissions*NonCO2 emissions vs BAU

En-ROADS PRO: IF THEN ELSE(EMF scenario>=0, Calibration GHG emissions avg, Global RS N2O emissions*NonCO2 emissions vs BAU)

CH4: MtonsCH4/yearN2O: MtonsN2O-N/yearPFCs: tonsCF4/yearSF6: tonsSF6/yearHFCs: tonsHFC/year

RS GHG at start GET DATA BETWEEN TIMES(Global RS GHG emissions, Other emissions cut start time , 0)


GHG Uptake GHG/Time constant for GHG


Mass of GHGThe mass of GHG in the atmosphere at each time:

INTEG(Global GHG Emissions-GHG Uptake, Initial GHG mass)

CH4: MtonsCH4N2O: MtonsN2O-NPFCs: tonsCF4SF6: tonsSF6HFCs: tonsHFC/year

Preindustrial GHG mass The mass of GHG in the atmosphere at the start of the simulation (1850) based on the initial concentration and the conversion to

CH4: MtonsCH4N2O: MtonsN2O-N


Table 8-79 Calculated Parameters of Other GHG Cycles

Parameter Definition Unitsconcentration.

Preindustrial GHG conc/conversion mass to concentrations

PFCs: tonsCF4SF6: tonsSF6HFCs: tonsHFC/year

ppt per mol 5.68e-009 ppt/moleppt GHG per ton GHG ppt per mol/molar mass GHG*g per ton Ppt/tonppb GHG per Mton GHG (CH4

and N2O) ppt per mol/GHG molar mass*g per ton*ton per Mton/ppt per ppb Ppb/Mton

GHG atm conc Mass of GHG*conversion mass to concentration CH4 and N2O: ppbAll other GHGs: ppt

GHG RF (GHG atm conc-Preindustrial GHG conc)*GHG radiative efficiency/ppt per ppb Watt/(meter*meter)

*HFCs are modeled with the HFC type subscript, such that each HFC type moves through its own cycle independent of the other HFC types. The HFC RF is the sum of RFs from each HFC type.


Table 8-80 Time Constants, Radiative Forcing Coefficients, 100-year Global Warming Potential, and Molar Mass of other GHGs

Gas Preindustrial concentration

Natural Emissions

Time Constant (years)

Radiative Forcing Efficiency (watts/ppb/meter2)

100-year Global Warming Potential (tonsCO2/ton gas)

Molar Mass (g/mole)

CH4 785.5 ppb2 213 Mtons/year 3

See Table 8-81 0.12 25 (includes indirect effects from enhancements of ozone and stratospheric water vapour (IPCC, 2004))

16

N2O 275 ppb4 11.3 Mtons/year5

114 0.036 296 28 (N2O-N)

Fluorinated GasesPFCs (assuming

CF4 equivalents)40 ppt Preindustrial

PFC/Time Const for PFC (tons/year)

50000 0.1 7390 88

SF6 0 0 3200 0.52 22800 146HFCs

2 Law Dome ice core3 Calibrated to fit history and SRES projections. MAGICC 5.3 uses 266.5. AR4 Table 7.6 reports a range of 145-260, with a mean of 199.4 Based on MAGICC5 Based on MAGICC


HFC 134a 0 0 14 0.16 1430 102HFC23 0 0 270 0.19 14800 70HFC32 0 0 4.9 0.11 675 52

HFC125 0 0 29 0.23 3500 120HFC143a 0 0 52 0.13 4470 84HFC152a 0 0 1.4 0.09 124 66

HFC227ea 0 0 34.2 0.26 3220 170HFC245ca 0 0 5.9 0.23 640 134

HFC4310mee 0 0 15.9 0.4 1640 252

Table 8-81 Fractional Uptake of Other GHG Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition Range RS Values Units SourceReference

uptake0.116 1/year

CH4 chem path share

0.88 Dmnl AR4 WG1 Table 7.6

OH path share CH4

0.0774 Dmnl

Percent CH4 leakage from natural gas

Percent of natural gas that leaks into atmosphere, adding to global CH4 emissions. Assumes approximation of 100% natural gas = CH4. Includes mining, production, and distribution.

0-10 3 Percent Default of 3% based on EPA's estimate of 2.8%. Upper range of 10% based on reported estimate of 9% (J. Tolleston's, Nature 482, 139-140, 09 February 2012).


Table 8-82. CH4 Emissions Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition UnitsTime Const for CH4 Meinshausen et al., 2008

1/Fractional Uptake

Years

Fractional Uptake Meinshausen et al., 2008

Reference uptake*( CH4 chem path share/(OH path share CH4*(CH4/Initial CH4) + 1-OH path share CH4) +(1-CH4 chem path share) )

1/year

CH4 leakage from natural gas from percent

Natural gas that leaks into atmosphere, adding to global CH4 emissions. Assumes approximation of 100% natural gas = CH4.

Percent CH4 leakage from natural gas/"100 percent"*Primary energy demand of gas*TJ per EJ*MMbtu per TJ*Convert MMbtu to tons CH4/ton per Mton

Mtons/Year

CH4 leakage from natural gas

Defined by the specified emissions of CH4 leakage if Test emissions = 1; otherwise defined by the percent of of leakage of natural gas.

In En-ROADS Pro, to test the EMF22 Scenarios, the Test emissions option is disabled.

IF THEN ELSE(Test emissions, CH4 leakage emissions specified, CH4 leakage from natural gas from percent)

En-ROADS PRO: IF THEN ELSE(EMF scenario>=0 :OR: Test emissions=0, CH4 leakage from natural gas from percent, CH4 leakage emissions specified)

Mtons/Year

Anthropogenic global CH4 emissions

Assumes the Global RS CH4 emissions include the BAU CH4 from leakage.

(Global RS CH4 emissions-BAU CH4 from leakage)*NonCO2

Mtons/Year


Table 8-82. CH4 Emissions Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Unitsemissions vs BAU

Total anthropogenic global CH4 emissions

Sum of the anthropegnic CH4 as determined from ratio of RS and the additional CH4 from the leakage of natural gas.

Anthropogenic global CH4 emissions+CH4 leakage from natural gas

Mtons/Year


Figure 8.72 RF of CH4 and N2O

CH4 and N2ORadiative Forcing

CH4 referenceconc

CH4 RadiativeEfficiency

N2O RadiativeEfficiency

N2O referenceconc

adjustment forCH4ref and N2O

adjustment forCH4ref and N2Oref

adjustment for CH4and N2Oref

<CH4 referenceconc>

<N2O referenceconc>

CH4 N2O unit adj

CH4 N2Ointeraction

CH4 N2O intercoef 2

CH4 N2O intercoef 3

CH4 N20 interexp

CH4 N20 interexp 2

<CH4 N2Ointeraction>

<CH4 N2O intercoef 2>


<CH4 N20 interexp>

<CH4 N20 interexp 2>

<CH4 N2Ointeraction>



<CH4 N20 interexp>

<CH4 N20 interexp 2>

<CH4 N2O unitadj>

<CH4 referenceconc>

<CH4 N2O unitadj>

<N2O atm conc> <CH4 atm conc>

N2O RadiativeForcing

CH4 RadiativeForcing


Table 8-83 CH4 and N2O RF Input and Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Value Units SourceN2O concentration at reference year

Assumes reference year of 1750 270 Ppb TAR, Chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. p.358.

CH4 concentration at reference year

Assumes reference year of 1750 700 Ppb

CH4 and N2O Radiative Forcing

The sum of the unit radiative forcing due to CH4 and N2O:

CH4 Radiative Forcing + N2O Radiative Forcing

Watt/(meter2)

N2O Radiative Forcing

Adjusts total RF from CH4 and N2O to be less than the sum of RF from each individually to account for interactions between both gases.

N2O Radiative Efficiency*(sqrt(N2O atm conc*CH4 N2O unit adj)-sqrt(N2O reference conc*CH4 N2O unit adj))-(adjustment for CH4ref and N2O-adjustment for CH4ref and N2Oref)

Watt/(meter2)

CH4 Radiative Forcing


CH4 Radiative Efficiency*(sqrt(CH4 atm conc*CH4 N2O unit adj)-sqrt(CH4 reference conc*CH4 N2O unit adj))-(adjustment for CH4 and N2Oref-adjustment for CH4ref and N2Oref)

Watt/(meter2)

adjustment for CH4ref and N2O

CH4 N2O interaction * LN( 1+CH4 N2O inter coef 2 *(CH4 reference conc*N2O

atm conc*CH4 N2O unit adj*CH4 N2O unit adj)^CH4 N20

inter exp

Watt/(meter2)


Table 8-83 CH4 and N2O RF Input and Calculated Parameters

Parameter Definition Value Units Source+CH4 N2O inter coef 3 *CH4 reference conc*CH4

N2O unit adj*(CH4 reference conc*N2O atm conc*CH4 N2O unit adj*CH4 N2O unit adj)^CH4 N20

inter exp 2)

adjustment for CH4 and N2Oref

CH4 N2O interaction * LN( 1+CH4 N2O inter coef 2 *(CH4 atm conc*N2O

reference conc*CH4 N2O unit adj*CH4 N2O unit adj)^CH4 N20

inter exp+CH4 N2O inter coef 3 *CH4 atm conc*CH4 N2O

unit adj*(CH4 atm conc*N2O reference conc*CH4 N2O unit adj*CH4 N2O unit adj)^CH4 N20

inter exp 2)

Watt/(meter2)

adjustment for CH4ref and N2Oref

CH4 N2O interaction * LN( 1+CH4 N2O inter coef 2 *(CH4 reference conc*N2O

reference conc*CH4 N2O unit adj*CH4 N2O unit adj)^CH4 N20

inter exp+CH4 N2O inter coef 3 *CH4 reference conc*CH4

N2O unit adj*(CH4 reference conc*N2O reference conc*CH4 N2O unit adj*CH4 N2O unit adj)^CH4 N20

inter exp 2)

watt/(meter2)


8.2.2 Montréal Protocol Gases

Rather than explicitly modeling the cycles of the Montreal Protocol (MP) gases, whose emissions are dictated by the MP, En-ROADS uses the calculated RF for historical and projected concentrations for the default RS in C-ROADS. These RFs are inputted into the En-ROADS data model as lookup tables and then into En-ROADS as data variables.

8.3 Cumulative Emissions

En-ROADS calculates the cumulative CO2 and CO2eq with the initial value taken as the 1990 C-ROADS value starting in 1850. Cumulative emissions are determined through the simulation. The trillionth ton is a marker of cumulative emissions above which a two degree future is far less likely.

Figure 8.73 Cumulative Emissions

Cumulativeemissions

<CO2Emissions>

Cumulativeemissions in C

<CO2 per C>trillionth ton in

CO2Initial cumulative

emissions

Trillionth ton of C

C remaining inbudget

Zero C remainingin budget

Cumulativeemissions from

2012<CO2Emissions>

<Time>Cumulative

emissions from2012 in C

<CO2 per C>

Cumulative CO2 Goal-80% probability

Cumulative CO2 Goal-50% probability

y2012


Table 8-84 Cumulative CO2 Emissions Input Parameters


Initial cumulative emissions

1990 value from C-ROADS CP with start time set to 1850.

1257

GtonsCO2

trillionth ton 1000 GtonsC"Cumulative CO2

Goal- 80% probability"

565 GtonsCO2

"Cumulative CO2 Goal- 50% probability"

1100 GtonsCO2

Table 8-85 Cumulative CO2 Emissions Calculated Parameters


Cumulative emissions

The cumulative CO2 emissions at each time.

INTEG(CO2 Emissions, Initial cumulative emissions)

GtonsCO2

Cumulative emissions in C Cumulative emissions/CO2 per C GtonsC

trillionth ton in CO2 trillionth ton*CO2 per C GtonsCO2

C remaining in budget

Amount of cumulative C left until the trillionth ton is reached

Trillionth ton of C-Cumulative emissions in C

GtonsC

Cumulative emissions from 2012

The cumulative CO2 emissions at each time starting at 2012 to assess how much more CO2 is entering the atmosphere moving forward. To be compared to the cumulative CO2 for 50% and 80% of limiting temperature change to 2 deg C.

INTEG(IF THEN ELSE(Time<y2012, 0, CO2 Emissions), 0)

GtonsCO2

Cumulative emissions from 2012 in C Cumulative emissions from 2012/CO2 per C GtonsC


9. Climate

9.1 Introduction

Like the carbon cycle, the climate sector is adapted from the FREE model, which used the DICE climate sector without modification (Nordhaus 1994). The DICE structure in turn followed Schneider and Thompson (1981).

The model has been recast in terms of stocks and flows of heat, rather than temperature, to make the physical process of accumulation clearer to users. However, the current model is analytically equivalent to the FREE and DICE versions.

FREE and DICE used exogenous trajectories for all non-CO2 radiative forcings. This version adds explicit forcings from CH4 and N2O.

9.2 Structure

The model climate is a fifth-order, linear system, with three negative feedback loops. Two loops govern the transport of heat from the atmosphere and surface ocean, while the third represents warming of the deep ocean. Deep ocean warming is a slow process, because the ocean has such a large heat capacity. If the deep ocean temperature is held constant, the response of the atmosphere and surface ocean to warming is first-order.

Temperature change is a function of radiative forcing (RF) from greenhouse gases and other factors, feedback cooling from outbound longwave radiation, and heat transfer from the atmosphere and surface ocean to the deep ocean layer (Figure 9.76 and Eq. 7 & 8).

Eq. 7

Tsurf = Qsurf/Rsurf

Tdeep = Qdeep/Rdeep

Qsurf = ∫ (RF(t) – Fout(t) – Fdeep(t) )dt + Qsurf(0)

Qdeep = ∫ Fdeep(t) dt + Qdeep(0)

T = Temperature of surface and deep ocean boxes Fdeep = heat flux to deep ocean Q = heat content of respective boxes RF = radiative forcing R = heat capacity of respective boxes Fout = outgoing radiative flux

Eq. 8

Fout(t) = Tsurf

Fdeep(t) = Rdeep*(Tsurf-Tdeep)/τ

= climate feedback parameter τ = heat transfer time constant

Radiative forcing from CO2 is logarithmic of the atmospheric CO2 concentration (IPCC TAR WG1, 2001, Table 6.2). Forcing from CH4 and N2O is less than the sum of RF from each


individually to account for interactions between both gases. Forcing from each F-gas is the product of its concentration and its radiative forcing coefficient; the total forcings of F-gases is the sum of these products, as are the forcings from MP gases derived. The sum of other forcings, which include those from aerosols (black carbon, organic carbon, sulfates), tropospheric ozone, defaults to an exogenous time-varying parameter The values use a composite of GISS other forcings, 1880-2011, adjusted to the same mean as MAGICC A1FI-MI over 1880-2011 (Hansen et al., 2005; Wigley, 2008). RCP85 other forcings apply thereafter. The user, however, may instead choose to input projected Other Forcings categorized as 1) solar and albedo forcings; 2) ozone precursor forcings; and 3) organic carbon, black carbon, and biological aerosol forcings. The user may input each of these categories as a lookup table over time, but defaults to the MAGICC A1FI values. Mineral and land forcings, equivalent to the solar and albedo forcings and taken from MAGICC A1FI for 2010 to 2100 as a constant -0.4 watts/meter2, are not included in RCP other forcing values; accordingly, these are added to the RCP other forcings, yielding the adjusted other forcings. It is the adjusted other forcings that are included in the total radiative forcing.

The equilibrium temperature response to a change in radiative forcing is determined by the radiative forcing coefficient, , and the climate feedback parameter, . Equilibrium sensitivity to 2xCO2eq forcing is 3C in the base case.

Tequil

lnC

aC

, a 0 ( )ln 2

Eq. 9

Tequil = equilibrium temperatureCa = atmospheric CO2 concentrationCa,o = preindustrial atmospheric CO2

concentration

= radiative forcing coefficient = climate feedback parameter


Figure 9.74 Equilibrium Temperature Response


Figure 9.75 Radiative Forcings

CO2 RadiativeForcing

RF from F gases

Halocarbon RFOther ForcingsComposite plus RCP85

Other Forcings

Smooth OtherForcing

Other Forcings Smoothplus RCP85

<PFC RF>

<SF6 RF>

<CH4 and N2ORadiative Forcing>

MP RF Total<One year>

<Time>

Control otherforcings

OC, BC, and bioaerosol forcings

Ozone precursorforcings

Solar and albedoforcings

User other forcings

<Time>

<One year>

HFC RF Total <HFC RF>

<C inAtmosphere>

<Preindustrial C>

Total RadiativeForcing

<CO2 Rad ForceCoeff>

Total RF excludingvolcanic RF

<One year> <Time> <Well-Mixed GHGForcing>

Fraction of total RFfrom CO2 RF

Fraction of global total CO2emissions from global CO2

FF

Fraction of total RFfrom global CO2 FF

Last historical RFyear

<Last historicalRF year>

RadiativeForcing

Adjusted OtherForcings

<One year>

<Time>

<CO2 emissions fromenergy in C>

<Global adjusted Cemissions>


Figure 9.76 Climate Sector

Climate Sensitivityto 2x CO2

Climate Feedback Param

Relative DeepOcean Temp

Deep Ocean Heat Cap

<Init AtmosUOcean Heat>

Heat inAtmosphere andUpper Ocean

Heat in DeepOcean

Heat Transfer

Feedback Cooling

<Total Radiative Forcing>

Init Deep OceanHeat

2x CO2 Forcing

y1990

Temperature changefrom 1990<Time>

Temperature changefrom preindustrial Deg F

Temp conversion

Temp change frompreindust

<lower layer heatcapacity Ru>

Heat TransferCoeff

<Mean Depth ofAdjacent Layers> Heat Diffusion

Covar

Heat Transfer Rate

Mean temperaturechange 1980-1999

<CO2 Rad ForceCoeff>

Eddy diff coeff

Eddy diff mean

Eddy diff coeffindex

Goal forTemperature

<Atm and UpperOcean Heat Cap>

Goal fortemperature Deg F

<Degrees mKper C>

Climate feedbackmK

mK per K


Table 9-86 Radiative Forcing and Temperature Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition RS Units SourceClimate Sensitivity to 2x CO2[scenario]

Equilibrium temperature change in response to a 2xCO2 equivalent change in radiative forcing. According to AR5, high confidence that value likely between 1.5 and 4.5, with high confidence that extremely unlikely less than 1 and medium confidence that extremely unlikely greater than 6. Changed from AR4, for which lower likely limit was 2.

Deterministic -3Low-1.5High -4.5

Degrees C AR5, 2013.

CO2 Rad Force Coeff Coefficient of Radiative Forcing from CO2 5.35 Watt/meter2

IPCC

Preindustrial CO2 Preindustrial CO2 content of atmosphere. 590 GtonsCLast historical RF year

Last year of GISS historical data. 2011 Year GISS

Init Atmos UOcean Temp

Initial heat of the Atmosphere and Upper Ocean, vs. preindustrial. Matches MAGICC 1765-1850 differential.

5.254 watt*Year/(meter*meter)

Based on 1990 levels in C-ROADS.

Init Deep Ocean Heat[layers]

Initial deep ocean heat (relative to preindustrial). 7.317,3.852, 1.468, 0.0579

watt*Year/(meter*meter)

Based on 1990 levels in C-ROADS.

Heat Transfer Rate Rate of heat transfer between the surface and deep ocean. 1.23 watt/meter2/DegreesC

Schneider & Thompson (1981), calibrated to more closely


Table 9-86 Radiative Forcing and Temperature Parameter Inputs

Parameter Definition RS Units Sourcereflect MAGICC 5.3 results..

Area Global surface area. 5.1e+014 Meter2

Land thickness Effective land area heat capacity, expressed as equivalent water layer thickness

8.4 Meter Schneider & Thompson (1981)

land area fraction Fraction of global surface area that is land. 0.292 Dmnl Schneider & Thompson (1981)

watt per J s Converts watts to J/s. 1 watt/(J/s)days per year Converts years to days. 365 days/yearsec per day Converts days to seconds. 86,400 S/daymass heat cap Specific heat of water, i.e., amount of heat in Joules per kg

water required to raise the temperature by one degree Celsius.

4186 J/kg/DegreesC

Density Density of water, i.e., mass per volume of water. 1000 kg/meter3

Goal for Temperature Assumed threshold of temperature change above which irreversible climate changes may occur

2 Degrees C

J per W Yr 365*24*60*60/1e+022; converts Joules*1e22 to watts*year

3.1536e-015 JoulesE22/watt/year

Offset 700m heat Calibration offset. -16 JoulesE22


Table 9-87 RF and Temperature Calculated Parameters


Radiative ForcingTotal Radiative Forcing from components:

"Well-Mixed GHG Forcing"+Other ForcingsWatt/(meter2)

Total Radiative Forcing[scenario]

"Well-Mixed GHG Forcing"[Scenario]+Adjusted Other Forcings Watt/meter2

CO2 Radiative Forcing Radiative forcing from CO2 in the atmosphere Watt/(meter2)

CH4 and N2O Radiative Forcing


Watt/(meter2)

Halocarbon RF RF from F gases+MP RF Total Watt/(meter2)

MP RF

Radiative forcing due to Montreal Protocol gases, based on the concentration of each gas multiplied by its radiative forcing coefficient:

Data variable from lookup table in En-ROADS Data model, where lookup variable is taken from C-ROADS v154c.

Watt/(meter2)

RF from F gases

Radiative forcing due to fluorinated gases, based on the concentration of each gas multiplied by its radiative forcing coefficient. The RF of HFCs is the sum of the RFs of the individual HFC types:

PFC RF+SF6 RF+HFC RF total

Watt/(meter2)

HFC RF total SUM(HFC RF[HFC type!]) Watt/(meter2)

Other Forcings MAGICCData variable from lookup table in En-ROADS Data model, where lookup variable is taken from C-ROADS v154c.

Watt/(meter2)

Other Forcings Composite Composite of GISS other forcings, 1880-2003, and MAGICC A1FI-MI outside that period. GISS adjusted to same mean as MAGICC over 1880-2003.

Watt/(meter2)




Data variable from lookup table in En-ROADS Data model, where lookup variable is taken from C-ROADS v154c.

Smooth Other Forcing 1 = smooth forcings (MAGICC); 0 = volcanic & other variability (GISS/MAGICC composite) Dmnl

Control other forcings 0 = default Other Forcings1 = User other forcings lookup Dmnl

User other forcings

Sum of LOOKUP tables of other forcings; default matches smooth Other Forcings MAGICC, but constituent forcings changeable by user

Solar and albedo forcings(Time/One year)+"OC, BC, and bio aerosol forcings"(Time/One year)+Ozone precursor forcings(Time/One year)

Watt/(meter2)

Solar and albedo forcingsLOOKUP table of solar and albedo forcings, default matches MAGICC A1FI Qaermn (minerals) plus Qland forcings

Watt/(meter2)

Ozone precursor forcingsLOOKUP table of ozone precursor forcings, default matches MAGICC A1FI TROPOZ + SO4DIR + SO4IND forcings

Watt/(meter2)

OC, BC, and bio aerosol forcings

LOOKUP table of organic organic carbon, black carbon, and biological aerosols; default matches MAGICC A1FI OC+BC + Bioaer forcings

Watt/(meter2)

Other Forcings Forcings for all components except well-mixed GHGs; determined either by default Other Forcings or user inputted User Other Forcings.

IF THEN ELSE(Control other forcings=1 :AND:Time>First user other RF year, User

Watt/(meter2)



Parameter Definition Unitsother forcings, IF THEN ELSE( Smooth Other Forcing, Other Forcings MAGICC(Time/One year),Other Forcings Composite(Time/One year)))

Adjusted Other Forcings

RCP85 does not include solar and albedo in their other forcings; the adjusted values add the values for these from MAGICC. It is the adjusted other forcings that are included in the total radiative forcing.

Other Forcings+IF THEN ELSE(Time>Last historical RF year :AND: Test other forcings=0 :AND: Control other forcings=0 :AND:((Choose RS<=-15 :AND: Choose RS >=-18) :OR: Choose RS =0 :OR: Choose RS=1), Solar and albedo forcings(Time/One year), 0)

Watt/meter2

Total RF excluding volcanic RF[scenario]

Radiative forcing used in climate sector, but with MAGICC smoothed historical data instead of actual GISS data, thereby excluding volcanic RF.

IF THEN ELSE(Time<=Last historical RF year, "Well-Mixed GHG Forcing"[scenario]+Other Forcings Smooth plus RCP85(Time/One year), Total Radiative Forcing[scenario])

Watt/(meter2)

Equivalent CO2[scenario]

What the concentration of CO2 would be if all the RF (excluding volcanic activity) were due to CO2.

EXP(Effective RF excluding volcanic RF[scenario]/CO2 Rad Force Coeff )*(Preindustrial C*ppm CO2 per GtonC)

ppm

Heat in Atmosphere and Upper Ocean

Temperature of the Atmosphere and Upper Ocean

Total Radiative Forcing[scenario]-Feedback

Year*watt/meter2



Parameter Definition UnitsCooling[scenario]-Heat Transfer[scenario, layer1]

Heat in Deep Ocean[scenario, layers]

Heat content of each layer of the deep ocean.

INTEG(Heat Transfer[scenario], Init Deep Ocean Temp*Deep Ocean Heat Cap)

Year*watt/meter2

Heat in Deep Ocean[scenario,upper]

Heat in each layer except for the bottom.

INTEG(Heat Transfer[scenario, upper]-Heat Transfer[scenario, lower], Init Deep Ocean Temp*Deep Ocean Heat Cap[upper])

Heat in Deep Ocean[scenario,bottom]

Heat in the bottom layer.

INTEG(Heat Transfer[scenario,bottom], Init Deep Ocean Temp*Deep Ocean Heat Cap[bottom])

Relative Deep Ocean Temp[scenario,layers]

Temperature of each layer of the deep ocean.

Heat in Deep Ocean[ scenario, layers]/Deep Ocean Heat Cap[layers]

Degrees C

2x CO2 ForcingRadiative forcing at 2x CO2 equivalent

CO2 Rad Force Coeff*LN(2)Watt/meter2

Equilibrium Temperature

Ratio of Radiative Forcing to the Climate Feedback Parameter

Radiative Forcing[ scenario]/Climate Feedback Param[scenario]

Degrees C

Feedback Cooling Feedback cooling of atmosphere/upper ocean system due to blackbody radiation.

Temperature change from

Watt/meter2



Parameter Definition Unitspreindustrial[scenario]*Climate Feedback Param[ scenario]

Climate Feedback Param

Climate Feedback Parameter - determines feedback effect from temperature increase.

"2x CO2 Forcing"/Climate Sensitivity to 2x CO2[scenario]

Watt/meter2/Degrees C

Heat Transfer[scenario, layers]

Heat Transfer from the atmosphere & upper ocean to the first layer of the deep ocean and from each layer of the deep ocean to the layer below it.

Temp Diff[scenario]*Deep Ocean Heat Cap/Heat Transfer Time

Watt/meter2

Heat Transfer[scenario, layer1](Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]-Relative Deep Ocean Temp[scenario,layer1])*Heat Transfer Coeff/Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[layer1]

Heat Transfer[scenario, lower](Relative Deep Ocean Temp[scenario,upper]-Relative Deep Ocean Temp[scenario,lower])*Heat Transfer Coeff/Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[lower]

Heat Transfer Coeff

The ratio of the actual to the mean of the heat transfer coefficient, which controls the movement of heat through the climate sector, is a function of the ratio of the actual to the mean of the eddy diffusion coefficient, which controls the movement of carbon through the deep ocean.

INITIAL((Heat Transfer Rate*Mean Depth of Adjacent Layers[layer1])*(Heat Diffusion Covar*(Eddy diff coeff/Eddy diff mean)+(1-Heat Diffusion Covar)))

watt/meter2/(DegreesC/meter)

upper layer volume Vu Water equivalent volume of the upper box, which is a meter3



Parameter Definition Unitsweighted combination of land, atmosphere,and upper ocean volumes.

area*(land area fraction*land thickness+(1-land area fraction)*Mixed Depth)

lower layer volume Vu[layers]Water equivalent volume of the deep ocean by layer.

area*(1-land area fraction)*Layer Depth[layers]meter3

volumetric heat capacity

Volumetric heat capacity of water, i.e., amount of heat in watt*year required to raise 1 cubic meter of water by one degree C.

mass heat cap*watt per J s/sec per yr*density

watt*year/meter3/DegreesC

Atm and Upper Ocean Heat Cap

Volumetric heat capacity for the land, atmosphere, and, upper ocean layer, i.e., upper layer heat capacity Ru; based on 70% 100m ocean layer and 30% 8.4m equiv land layer.

INITIAL(upper layer volume Vu*volumetric heat capacity/area)

watt*year/DegreesC/meter2

Deep Ocean Heat Cap[layers]

Volumetric heat capacity for the deep ocean by layer, i.e., lower layer heat capacity Ru.

INITIAL(lower layer volume Vu[layers]*volumetric heat capacity/area)

watt*year/DegreesC/meter2

Temperature change from preindustrial[ scenario]

Heat in Atmosphere and Upper Ocean[ scenario]/Atm and Upper Ocean Heat Cap Degrees C

Temperature change from preindustrial Deg F[scenario]

Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]*temp conversion Degrees F

Temp conversion 1.8 Degrees F/Degrees C




"Mean temperature change 1980-1999"[scenario]

Mean of actual data from the two historical temperature datasets (HADCRUT3 and GISTEMP) for the period of 1980-1999.

("Mean GISTEMP temperature change 1980 - 1999"+"Mean HADCRUTs temperature change 1980 - 1999")/number of historical temp datasets

Degrees C

"Mean HADCRUTs temperature change 1980 - 1999"

Mean of actual 1980-1999 HADCRUT3 temperature change from preindustrial levels, inputted in the Data Model.

GET DATA MEAN(HADCRUT3 anomaly vPreind, y1980 , y1999)

Degrees C

"Mean GISTEMP temperature change 1980 - 1999"

Mean of actual 1980-1999 GISTEMP temperature change from preindustrial levels, inputted in the Data Model.

GET DATA MEAN(GISTEMP anomaly vPreind, y1980 , y1999)

Degrees C

Temperature change from 1990[scenario]

Temperature change with respect to the mean data over 1980-1999, determined as the mean of GISTEMP and HADCRUT3 means over this period.

IF THEN ELSE( Time >= y1990, Temperature change from preindustrial[scenario]-"Mean temperature change 1980-1999"[scenario], :NA: )

Degrees C

Heat to 700m[scenario] Sum of the heat in the atmosphere and upper ocean and that in the top two layers of the deep ocean. Assumes default layer thicknesses, i.e., 100 m for the mixed ocean and 300 m each for layers 1 and 2.

watt*year/meter2




Heat in Atmosphere and Upper Ocean[scenario]*(1-land share)+Heat in Deep Ocean[scenario,layer1]+Heat in Deep Ocean[scenario,layer2]

Heat to 2000m[scenario]

Heat to 2000m in deep ocean. Assumes default layer thicknesses, i.e., 100 m for the mixed ocean, 300 m each for layers 1 and 2, and 1300 m for layer 3.

Heat to 700m[scenario]+Heat in Deep Ocean[scenario,layer3]

watt*year/meter2

Heat to 700m J[scenario]

Heat to 700 m in Joules*1e22 for the area covered by water. Assumes default layer thicknesses, i.e., 100 m for the mixed ocean and 300 m each for layers 1 and 2.

Heat to 700m[scenario]*J per W Yr*(area*(1-land area fraction))+Offset 700m heat

JoulesE22

Heat to 2000m J[scenario]

Heat to 2000 m in Joules*1e22 for the area covered by water. Assumes default layer thicknesses, i.e., 100 m for the mixed ocean, 300 m each for layers 1 and 2, and 1300 m for layer 3.

Heat to 2000m[scenario]*J per W Yr*(area*(1-land area fraction))

JoulesE22


10. Calibration and Initialization

En-ROADS bases all of its parametric defaults and ranges on several sources, all compiled in two Excel worksheets, i.e., En-ROADS Supporting Data A.xlsx and En-ROADS Supporting Data B.xlsx, both of which are linked with this document. The former includes data for commercialization and development times, progress ratios, efficiency, reserves, flow constraints, emissions, materials, and person years with all sources cited. The latter includes historical energy intensity data with all sources cited.

En-ROADS calibrates GDP, energy intensity, carbon intensity, and GHG emissions to historical available data provided by IEA, Hyde, WEO, and BP, and to projected values provided by WEO, EMF22 models, EMF27 models, RCP, and SRES scenarios. Figure 10.77 through Figure 10.85 show the data structures to determine the initial settings and calibration sets. Several figures show the historical fit, followed by figures showing comparisons to EMF projections. Sensitivity analyses, using random triangular distribution, tested the effects of varying parameters as noted in Table 9.1. The results of these are shown in Figures 9.14-9.17. Following those, Figures 9.18-9.23 Show comparisons of results using the model default values for primary energy demand by resource. The model imports EMF27 Reference scenarios and EMF22 data for Reference and for four reduction scenarios, i.e., 1 = 4.5 W/m2 stabilization, 2 = 3.6 W/m2 stabilization, 3 = 3.6 W/m2 overshoot, and 4 = 2.7 W/m2 overshoot. Stabilization indicates the goal is achieved and maintained, whereas overshoot indicates the goal is exceeded but then achieved. The radiative forcings correspond roughly to a future of 650 ppm, 550 ppm, and a 450 ppm, respectively. For each of the EMF reduction scenarios, EnROADS responds to similar emissions pathways with comparable emissions trajectories.


Figure 10.77 WEO Data and Initial Energy Requirements and Source Capacity

<WEO final elecconsumption EJ>

<WEO transportconsumption EJ>

WEO elec share ofmobile

Initial mobilenonelec cons

Initial mobileelec cons

Initial stationaryelec cons

Initial stationarynonelec cons

<WEO total nonelecconsumption EJ>

Initial supplycapacity

<WEO final nonelecconsumption EJ>

Initial generation

Historic fraction ofeach path

<WEO powergeneration EJ>

Initial energyrequirements

<WEO elecconsumption to

generation ratio>

T&D losses


Initial fuel capacity

<Initial elecutilization>



Figure 10.78 BP Data

BP electricitygeneration

BP production

Extraction pricehistorical data

BP stats reserves

BP CO2Emissions

BP primary energydemand

BP total primaryenergy

BP primary equivhydro renewables

Oil spot crudeprices

Oil Refinerycapacities

Oil Refinerythroughputs

BP calculated primaryconsumption to production

Coal prices Platts

Coal prices cokingcoal import cif

Coal prices steamcoal import cif

Coal prices Asianmarker

Oil crude pricesCoal prices

Gas prices LNG

Gas prices HenryHub

Oil consump capratio hist

Oil throughput capratio hist

Oil refinerythroughput in EJ

Oil refinerycapacity in EJ

Oil throughput toproduction ratio

BP extraction pricehistorical data


Figure 10.79 Initial Energy Source Experience and Cumulative Extraction

Init Cum Extraction

Init energy sourceexperience

<Refiningcapital lifetime>

<Thresholdexperience>

<Initial supplycapacity>

Ref Hist growth rate

<Hyde energyconsumption>


<INITIAL TIME>y1950

WEOconsumption

Hist growth rate

WEO consumptionin 2000

<Initial generation>

<Interpolate>

<y2000>

<INITIAL TIME>

<y2000>

<Lifetime growthrate>

<Primary EnergyDemand by aggregated

resource>

<Supply lifetime>


Figure 10.80 Hyde Data

Energy densityof oil tons oil per

Mton oil

Hyde energyconsumption

Hyde GDP $

Hyde CO2Emissions

Hyde totalconsumption

Energy density ofoil in EJ

<EJ per TJ>

<TJ per GJ><CO2 per C>

Hyde CO2Emissions Tg

<TgC to GtonsC>

Hyde GDP

<1995 to 2005dollars>

<trillion dollars>

Hyde energy in EJ

Hyde historicalEnergy

2010 to 2005dollars


Figure 10.81 EMF27 Projections

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Oil wo CCSEMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Oil w CCS EMF27 Ref

Concentration CH4

EMF27 RefConcentration CO2

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Nuclear

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Non Biomass

Renewables

EMF27 RefConcentration N2O

EMF27 Ref PriceCarbon

EMF27 Ref ForcingKyoto Gases

EMF27 RefBioenergy primary

equiv

EMF27 Ref Renewableenergy primary equiv

EMF27 RefRenewable energy

share

EMF27 Ref Total energyprimary equiv

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Hydro

EMF27 Ref GDPPPP

EMF27 RefForcing AN3A

EMF27 RefForcing

EMF27 RefTemperature Global

Mean

EMF27 RefConsumption

EMF27 Ref TotalGHG emissions

EMF27 RefEmissions per GDP

EMF27 Ref GDPper Capita

EMF27 Ref FF CO2intensity of GDP

EMF27 RefPopulation

EMF27 Ref GDP

EMF27 Ref landuse emissions

EMF27 Ref FF CO2emiss per cap

EMF27 Ref CH4emissions

EMF27 Ref N2Oemissions

EMF27 Ref F gasemissions

EMF27 Ref FFCO2 emissions

<EMF27 Total GHGemissions>

<EMF27 Total energyprimary equiv +0s>

<EMF27 Bioenergyprimary equiv>

<EMF27 Renewableenergy primary equiv>

<EMF27 Renewableenergy share>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Oil wo CCS>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Oil w CCS>

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Coal wo CCSEMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Coal w CCS

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Gas wo CCSEMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Gas w CCS

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Biomass wo CCS

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Biomass w CCS

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Coal wo CCS>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Coal w CCS>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Gas wo CCS>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Gas w CCS> <EMF27 Primary

Energy Biomass woCCS>

<EMF27 Primary EnergyBiomass w CCS>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Nuclear>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Hydro>

<EMF27 Primary EnergyNon Biomass Renewables>

EMF27 RefEmissions per Capita

<EMF27 land useemissions>

<EMF27 N2Oemissions>

<EMF27 CH4emissions>

<EMF27 FF CO2emissions>

<EMF27Concentration CO2>

<EMF27Concentration CH4>

<EMF27Concentration N2O>

<EMF27Forcing>

<EMF27 ForcingKyoto Gases>

<EMF27 ForcingAN3A>

<EMF27 TemperatureGlobal Mean>

<EMF27 F gasemissions>

<EMF27 FF CO2emiss per cap>

<EMF27Consumption>

<EMF27 GDPPPP>

<EMF27 PriceCarbon>

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Oil

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Coal

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Gas

EMF27 Ref PrimaryEnergy Biomass

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Coal>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Oil>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Gas>

<EMF27 PrimaryEnergy Biomass>

EMF27 Ref energyintensity of GDP

EMF27 Ref FF CO2intensity of energy

<EMF27 FF CO2intensity of energy>

<EMF27 energyintensity of GDP>

<EMF27 GDP>

<EMF27 Emissionsper GDP><EMF27 GDP per

Capita>

<EMF27Population>

<EMF27 FF CO2intensity of GDP>

<EMF27 Emissionsper Capita>

EMF27 Ref Nuclearprimary equiv

<EMF27 Nuclearprimary equiv>

<US $ 2010 per2005 T>

US $ 2010 per2005 B

<US $ 2010 per2005 T>


Figure 10.83 RCP and SRES Projections

SRES Global CO2FF emissions

SRES GlobalPopulation

SRES GlobalGDP

SRES Global FinalEnergy

SRES GlobalPrimary Energy

SRES Global CO2 FFemissions per final energy

SRES Global CO2 FFemissions per primary

energy

SRES global finalenergy per GDP

SRES global primaryenergy per GDP

Selected SRESGlobal Final Energy

Choose SRES

Selected SRES GlobalPopulation

Selected SRES GlobalCO2 FF emissions

Selected SRES GlobalPrimary Energy

Selected SRESGlobal GDP

Selected SRES GlobalCO2 FF emissions per final

energy

Selected SRES Global CO2FF emissions per primary

energy

Selected SRES Globalfinal energy per GDP

Selected SRES Globalprimary energy per GDP

million per trillionMEX

<CO2 per C>

<CO2 per C>

<TonCO2 perGtonCO2>

<CO2 per C>

<TonCO2 perGtonCO2>

Selected SRES Globalcarbon intensity of GDP

<Time>

<Hyde energy inEJ>

Selected CalibrationFinal Energy <y1995>

<TonsCO2 perMtonsCO2>


RCP Global CO2FF emissions

SSP Global GDP

Selected SSPGlobal GDP

Choose SSP

Selected SSP GlobalPopulation

Selected RCP GlobalCO2 FF emissions

Choose RCP

SSP GlobalPopulation

<US $ 2005 per1990>

Selected RCP Globalcarbon intensity of GDP

Global 2011 PPPto 2005 PPP

<Globalpopulation>

RCP CH4 emissionsfrom agriculture

RCP CH4 emissionsfrom waste

RCP CH4 emissionsfrom energy use and

supply

RCP CH4 emissionsfrom end use capital

RCP global CH4emissions

RCP global N2Oemissions

RCP global SF6emissions

RCP global HFCemissions

RCP global emissionsPFCs CF4eq

Figure 10.82 EMF22 Projections

Calibration globalCO2 <y2010>

y1995

CalibrationPopulation

Calibration carbonintensity of primary energy

Calibration energyintensity of GDP in EJ

Calibration GDPper capita

<Time>

<y2000>

Calibration carbonintensity of GDP

Calibration GDP

Calibration PrimaryEnergy

Calibration CO2Emissions

Total energy primary equivScenario 1 37 stabilization

Total energy primaryequiv Ref

Total energy primary equivScenario 1 45 stabilization

Total energy primary equivScenario 1 26 overshoot

Total energy primary equivScenario 1 37 overshoot

CO2 FF EmissionsScenario 1 37 stabilization

CO2 FFEmissions Ref

CO2 FF EmissionsScenario 1 45 stabilization

CO2 FF EmissionsScenario 1 26 overshoot

CO2 FF EmissionsScenario 1 37 overshoot

GDP Scenario 1 37stabilization

GDP Ref

GDP Scenario 1 45stabilization

GDP Scenario 1 26overshoot

GDP Scenario 1 37overshoot

<Time>

<Time>

<y2010>

<Time>

<y2000>

Population Ref

Consumption Scenario1 37 stabilization

Consumption Ref

Consumption Scenario1 45 stabilization

Consumption Scenario1 26 overshoot

Consumption Scenario1 37 overshoot

MAC Scenario 1 37stabilization

MAC Ref

MAC Scenario 1 45stabilization

MAC Scenario 1 26overshoot

MAC Scenario 1 37overshoot

EMF scenario

<EMF scenario>

<EMF scenario>

Calibrationconsumption

<Time><y2010>

<billion people>

CalibrationMAC

<Hyde CO2Emissions>

Max calibrationGDP

<Calibration CO2Emissions>

<Selected SRES GlobalPrimary Energy>

<y2000>

Carbon Price Scenario1 37 stabilization

Carbon Price Ref

Carbon Price Scenario1 45 stabilization

Carbon Price Scenario1 26 overshoot

Carbon Price Scenario1 37 overshoot

Calibration weightedaverage carbon price

<Time>

<y2010>

<Hist and projglobal GDP>

<Globalpopulation>

Calibration GDP2005

US $ 2010 per2005 T

<T$ 2010 MEX>

Hist and proj globalGDP T2010 MEX

<MTonsCO2 perGtonsCO2>



Figure 10.84 EIA General Data and Projections

EIA population

EIA GDP percapita

EIA energy intensityper GDP

EIA carbon intensityof energy

EIA Global GDP

million people

EIA energydemand

EIA CO2emissions

Thousand BTU perbillion BTU

<TonCO2 perGtonCO2>

<MMbtu per TJ>

<TJ per EJ>

EIA carbon intensity ofenergy in tonsCO2 per EJ

MMbtu per billionBTU

EIA intensity in EJper T2010

EIA energydemand in EJ

EIA carbonintensity of GDP

EIA consumptionby fuel

EIA GDP by aggregion

EIA CO2 FFemissions

EIA Energyemissions by fuel


EIA primary energydemand

EIA primary energyintensity of GDP

<T$ 2011 PPP>

EIA Ref world oilsupply

EIA Low oil priceworld oil supply

EIA High oil priceworld oil supply

Figure 10.85 EIA Source Data and Projections

EIA extracted fuelprices

Extraction pricehistorical data

Historical andprojection extraction

data<Time of lastextraction price data>

<Time>

EIA delivered fuelprices

EIA delivered fuelprices in MCF

EIA delivered fuelprices in boe

EIA delivered fuelprices in tce

<GJ per tce>

<GJ per MCF>

EIA extracted fuelprices in MCF

EIA extracted fuelprices in boe

EIA extracted fuelprices in tce

<GJ per BOE>

<GJ per tce>

<GJ per MCF>

EIA historic Brent spotaverage oil prices

EIA historic HenryHub gas prices

EIA historic deliveredgas industrial

EIA historic deliveredcoal for elec tce

EIA historic deliveredgas for elec MCF

EIA historic delivered oilprices for gasoline boe

EIA historic delivered oilprices for heating oil boe

EIA historic deliveredgas commercial

EIA historic deliveredgas residential

EIA delivered gasprices industrial

EIA delivered gasprices commercial

EIA delivered gasprices residential

EIA delivered oilprices propane boe

EIA delivered oil pricesmotor gasoline boe

EIA delivered oilprices jet fuel boe

EIA delivered oil pricesdistillate fuel boe

EIA delivered oil pricesresidual fuel boe

EIA historic delivered oilfor elec residual boe

EIA historic delivered oilfor elec distillate boe

EIA delivered coalprices coke

EIA delivered coal pricescommercial and industrial

EIA delivered coalprices other industrial

EIA delivered coalprices elec

EIA delivered gasprices elec

<barrels pertonnes>

<Energy density ofoil in EJ>

<GJ per EJ>

<toe per Mtoe>

y2040

<Time>


Figure 10.86 Calibration Summary – Final Energy from Electric ConsumpationFigure 10

Note: Blue line = En-ROADS outputGreen dots (historical data) and red dots (projections) represent single points from WEO 2012.

Final Energy from NonElec Oil200

150

100

50

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from NonElec Gas70

52.5

35

17.5

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from NonElec Bio60

45

30

15

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from NonElec Coal50

37.5

25

12.5

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Mobile Fuel200

150

100

50

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EnROADS WEO

Total Final Energy (Consumption)500

375

250

125

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EnROADS WEO

CO2 FF Emissions40

30

20

10

01990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO


Figure 10.88 Calibration Summary – Primary Energy


Figure 10.89 Calibration Summary – Extracted and Delivered Fuel Price

Fuel Price of Coal20

10

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (Year)

$/G

J

Coal Extracted PricesCoal Delivered Prices

Fuel Price of Oil50

25

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (Year)$/

GJ

Oil Extracted PricesOil Delivered Prices

Fuel Price of Gas20

10

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (Year)

$/G

J

Gas Extracted PricesGas Delivered Prices

Fuel Price of Bio20

10

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (Year)

$/G

J

Bio Extracted PricesBio Delivered Prices


Table 10-88 Sensitivity Analysis Inputs

Parameter Reference Min Max Notes

Centralization of extraction(x 4 fuels)

0.3 0.1 0.6

The centralized portion of the extraction industry adjusts capacity toward expected fuel demand, irrespective of profitability. The decentralized portion adds or cuts capacity in response to current profitability.

Demand elasticity of fuels(x 4 fuels)

0.1 0.05 0.2

Short-term elasticity (negative) of end-use demand to effective energy price (i.e., price adjusted for end-use energy efficiency). Affects expressed energy demand and market-clearing prices.

End use carrier share cost sensitivity 2 1 3

Exponent (negative) for the effect of aggregate fuel vs. electricity cost on the shares of new end-use capital investment.

GDP per capita growth rate 1.55 1 2 Global GDP per capita growth rate from 2015

to 2100.Initial available resource remaining(x 3 fossil fuels)

Coal: 100000, Oil: 12500, Gas: 9000

Coal: 70000, Oil: 6000, Gas: 4000

Coal: 150000, Oil: 25000, Gas: 18000

Recoverable resource remaining as of 1990, measured in exajoules.

Profit effect on desired extraction capacity 1.10 1.05 1.20 Determines the rate of expansion for extraction

capacity in response to profitability.Progress ratio renewables 0.80 0.75 0.9 Ratio of unit cost per doubling of cumulative

production. Equals 1 minus the learning rate.Ratio of operating to total extraction cost(x 4 fuels)

Coal: 0.6, Oil: 0.4, Gas: 0.4, Bio: 0.4 0.1 0.9

Ratio of the average variable cost to extract the fuel to the total cost, including exploration, for extraction capacity.


Figure 10.90 GDP Comparison to EMF27

EMF27 En-ROADS

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

T$U

S201

0/Ye

ar

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100


Figure 10.91 Energy Intensity of GDP Comparison to EMF27

EMF27 En-ROADS

15

10

5

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

15

10

5

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

EJ/T

$ 20

10


Figure 10.92 Carbon Intensity of Energy Comparison to EMF27

EMF27 En-ROADS

80

60

40

20

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Mto

nsC

O2/

EJ

80

60

40

20

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Mto

nsC

O2/

EJ


Figure 10.93 CO2 Emissions from Energy Comparison to EMF27

EMF27 En-ROADS

150

125

100

75

50

25

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Gto

nsC

O2/

Year

150

125

100

75

50

25

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Gto

nsC

O2/

Year


Figure 10.94 Primary Energy from Coal Comparison to EMF27

Coal Comparisons to EMF1500

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Coal

Figure 10.95 Primary Energy from Oil Comparison to EMF27

Oil Comparisons to EMF500

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Oil


Figure 10.96 Primary Energy from Gas Comparison to EMF27

Gas Comparisons to EMF400

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Gas

Figure 10.97 Primary Energy from Bioenergy Comparison to EMF27

Bio Comparisons to EMF300

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Bio


Figure 10.98 Primary Energy from Nuclear Comparison to EMF27

Nuclear Comparisons to EMF300

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Nuclear

Figure 10.99 Primary Energy from Renewables Comparison to EMF

Renewables Comparisons to EMF1000

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

EJ/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv from NonBio Renewables


Figure 10.100 EMF22 Scenario 1 Carbon Price

Carbon Price Comparisons to EMF600

300

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

$US2

010/

TonC

O2

Calibration weighted average carbon price[ETSAP TIAM] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[GTEM] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[IMAGE] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[MERGE Optimistic] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[MERGE Pessimistic] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[MESSAG] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[MiniCAM BASE] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[POLES] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[SGM] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration weighted average carbon price[WITCH] : EMF22 Scenario 1En-ROADS Carbon Tax

Figure 10.101 EMF22 Scenario 1 Corresponding CO2 FF Emissions

CO2 from Energy Comparisons to EMF100

50

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r

Calibration CO2 Emissions[ETSAP TIAM] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[GTEM] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[IMAGE] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[MERGE Optimistic] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[MERGE Pessimistic] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[MESSAG] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[MiniCAM BASE] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[POLES] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[SGM] : EMF22 Scenario 1Calibration CO2 Emissions[WITCH] : EMF22 Scenario 1En-ROADS CO2 Emissions from Energy


Figure 10.102 EMF22 Scenario 2 Corresponding CO2 FF Emissionsef


50

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r





1500

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

$US2

010/

TonC

O2




1500

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

$US2

010/

TonC

O2




40

-202010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r





1000

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

$US2

010/

TonC

O2




40

-202010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r



Figure 10.108 Main Control Panel

Main Control Panel

Kaya Identity

Assump & ConditionsActions and Policies

ComparisonsEMF27

EIA's IEO

SRES/RCP/SSP

EMF22

Carrier share

Energy & CO2GDP & energy

C intensity & CO2Full Kaya Identity Capacity

C intensity of energy

Resource

Source Net RevenueSupplier cost

Completing Construction

Retiring capacity

Supply Cost/Price

Cumulative emissions

Consuming capital

New Tech

Emissions & Impacts

Other GHGs

Annual CO2 emissions

Renewables

Transition ComparisonsEnergy intensity

Electric share

CO2eq emissions & conc

Temperature

CO2 conc

New/Average

Full Control Panels

# Nuc Units

Supply Comparisons

% Invested

Tot Prim Energy Dem'd

Overall Cost of Energy

Impacts

Carbon Intensity

DemandSupply

BP, IEA WEO Historical

En-ROADS StructureStructureDemand

Carrier Choice

Dispatch

Investment fractions

Resources

EmissionsCumulative emissions

v107

Reduction Rate Table

New/Avg Primary EINew/Avg Final EI

Energy Intensity of GDP

Renewables

Main

SE4ALL

Feedbacks to CapitalCapital

Original Energy ReqtsEnergy Requirements

Supply DemandCost and Price Indicators

Expected Cost of Energy

Capacity vs UtilizationAdditional Control Panels

350.org

Demand by Resource

Financial Indicators

CO2eq Emissions to 2030

CO2 Emissions to 2030

CO2 Emissions & Removals

Supply Curves

CO2eq 2030

Demand Curves

PopulationGDP

Population and GDP

Retirement CurveLearning and R&D

Emissions Cost Table

Emissions Price

Capital Lifetime Effects

CCS

Net Gov't RevenueGovernment Cost

Revenue

Cum Net Gov't Revenue

Learning and R&DAttractivenesss effects

Stucture of Other GHGsCH4

HFCsSF6

PFCsN2O

Final vs Primary by Type

C Intensity of GDP

En-ROADS Pro

SLR and pHDamages

OILOil Graphs and Controls

Cost of Fuel

Kaya Tree

Table summary

Total

EMF comparisonsGraphs

Price of Fuel

Total Ref GraphsTotal Actions

Supply

Extracted Fuel PriceExtraction Capacity

DamagesDamagesBathtub Dynamics

Fuel PricesUtilizations

Comparisonsto Ref

Supply Efficiency

Efficiency Improvements

Advanced UI

Source Subsidy/TaxSubsidy/Tax StartSubsidy/Tax Stop

Phase 2 Subsidy/Tax

Policies on New EnergyPolicies on Ref Demand

Policies on Utilization

BreakthroughsCommercialization time

Breakthrough start

Carbon Tax

Target AcclerationTarget Acceleration StartTarget Acceleration Stop

Emissions specified

Carbon CycleTemperature Change

Sea Level RisepH

Fuel Choice for Nonelec

Energy/Emissions

Energy Intensity of Capital

Energy Flows

2050 Kaya Bar Graphs 12050 Kaya Bar Graphs 22100 Kaya Bar Graphs 12100 Kaya Bar Graphs 2

Kaya Ref vs Policy

Kaya Summaries

Energy Summary

Price/Curtailment

Sensitivity AnalysesGlobal GDP

Energy intensity of GDP

CO2 energy emissionsCO2 intensity of energy

End-Use Consumption

Carbon Removal

Net annual emissions

GHG energy intensity

Other GHGs to RCP

Other GHGs to EMF22CH4 to RCP by source

Other GHGs to EMF27


11. References

Climate Interactive C-ROADS Data Files:

SRES v7.vdf, Created from SRES data model, dated 12/06/2011; RCP v2.vdf, Created from RCP data model, dated 07/15/2016;EMF27 v1.vdf, Created from EMF27 data model, dated 06/20/2014;EMF22proc8.vdf, Created from EMF22 data model, dated 11/15/2011;Global RS GHG.vdf, from C-ROADS v3.017, dated 11/10/2014

Fiddaman, T., L.S. Siegel, E. Sawin, A.P. Jones, and J. Sterman. (2011). C-ROADS Simulator Reference Guide. December.

En-ROADS Supporting Data A.xlsx and En-ROADS Supporting Data B.xlsx with all sources cited.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.2. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europe.eu, 2010 for 1970-2010.f

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Last updated February 8, 2016.

Global Carbon Budget. (2014). Earth System Science Data Discussions, doi:10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014.

Houghton, R. (2006) Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850-2005. The Woods Hole Research Center. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/landuse/houghton/1850-2005.txt.

Hyde energy history.xls, Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965.

Hyde Historical 041411.xls, Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000.

International Energy Agency. (2010). Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Statistics. www.iea.org.

Maddison, A. (2008) Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2006 AD. Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database, www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). (2012). Joint Program Energy and Climate Outlook. http://globalchange.mit.edu/Outlook2012.

Meinshausen, M., N. Meinshausen, W. Hare, S.C.B. Raper, K. Frieler, R. Knutti, D.J. Frame, and M.R. Allen. (2009). Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 20C. Nature. 458: 1158-1163.

Primary energy consumption 1635-2009 v14.xls, Annual Energy Review 2009 historical energy for transition comparisons

http://globalchange.mit.edu/Outlook2012

http://www.iea.org/


Statistical_Review_of_World_Energy_2017.xls, BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017

U.S. EnergyInformation Administration (EIA). (2014). Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release. www.iea.org.

EIA. Short-Term Energy Outlook. (2016). Short-Term Energy Outlook Real and Nominal Prices. December 2016.

EIA, Annual Energy Outlook. (2011). DOE/EIA-0383. AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System. www.eia.gov/aeo.

EIA Kaya 2012.xls, International Energy Outlook 2012 data for Kaya Identity, 2006-2035.

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of September 2011), www.eia.gov/ies.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.

WEO 2016 World data, data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2040.

World Bank. 2015. World Development Indicators, 1960-2015. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.C. Constant $ 2011 US (PPP).

http://www.eia.gov/ies

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.iea.org/

c-roads reference guide - climate interactive€¦ · web viewfigure 3.2 structure of gdp per...

Documents