c p impact and scenarios in design for multi age...
TRANSCRIPT
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FUTUREUSER-PRODUCTARRANGEMENTS:
COMBININGPRODUCTIMPACTANDSCENARIOSINDESIGN
FORMULTIAGESUCCESS
Dr.StevenDorrestijn,Dr.MaschaC.vanderVoort,Prof.dr.ir.Peter-PaulVerbeek
[Drafttext.Articlepublishedas:Dorrestijn,S.,vanderVoort,M.,&Verbeek,P.P.(2014).Futureuser-productarrangements:Combiningproductimpactandscenariosindesignformultiagesuccess.Technologicalforecastingandsocialchange,89,284-292.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.08.005]
ABSTRACT
Thepresenceoffourgenerationsinbusinessandorganisationsandtheprevalenceofever-evolvingtechnology,posequestionsfortechnologydesign;amuchwiderrangeofuser-productarrangementsneedstobeforecastanddesignedfor.Toprovideatheoreticalframeworkthataccommodatestheneedtoforecastproductappealforvariousagegroupsandcontextsthispapercomparesandcombinesthedualuseofscenariosfromscenariobaseddesignandscenarioplanningwiththeapproachoftechnicalmediationinthephilosophyoftechnology.Itintroduces‘scenariobaseddesign’and‘scenarioplanning’aswellas‘mediationtheory’andspecificallythe‘productimpactmodel’.Inscenariobaseddesigndirectproductimpactcanbeusedfordrawingandevaluatingscenarioswithafocushowwaysofdoingaredirectedandchangedbyproducts.Inscenarioplanningindirectproductimpactsarehelpful.Utopian/dystopianconceptionsoftechnologyhelptodrawextremescenarios,whilehistoricalpatternsinsociotechnicalevolutionguidetheevaluationanddefinitionofrealisticforecasts.Ourexamplessuggestthattheseeffectsmayjustaswellgointhedirectionofaugmentingthedividebetweengenerations,andfullattentioniscalledfortopreventorsolvethis.
AUTHORS
StevenDorrestijn(1977)isanassistantprofessorattheLaboratoryofDesign,ProductionandManagementoftheUniversityofTwente,andReaderinEthicsandTechnologyatSaxionUniversityofAppliedSciences,theNetherlands.Hisresearchconcernstheinfluencesoftechnologiesonhumansandsocietyaswellaspeople'spracticesofaccommodatingnewtechnologiesintheirlives.Thisapproachtotechnologiesinpeople'severydaylivesisapracticeorientedcomplementtotheoreticalapproachesinethics.Atthesametimeitishelpfulforuser-centreddesigninimprovingproductusabilityandacceptance.([email protected]/www.stevendorrestijn.nl)
MaschaC.vanderVoort(1974)isanassociateprofessorattheLaboratoryofDesign,ProductionandManagementoftheUniversityofTwente.SheisleadingtheresearchgrouponUseAnticipationinProductDesign.Theresearchfocusisonsupportingdesignersinanticipatingusewithinproductdesignprocesseswithnewdesignapproachesandtoolsforimprovinguser-productinteraction.Specialattentionispaidtothedevelopmentofscenariobasedmethodsandtoolsthatsupportactivestakeholderinvolvementandparticipatorydesign.Techniquesasworkshops,seriousgamingandvirtualrealityarefrequentlypartofthesedesignsupports.
Peter-PaulVerbeek(1970)isaprofessorofphilosophyoftechnologyandchairoftheDepartmentofPhilosophyattheUniversityofTwente.HeispresidentoftheSocietyforPhilosophyandTechnologyandamemberoftheDutchCouncilfortheHumanities.Verbeek'sresearchfocusesonthesocialandculturalrolesoftechnologyandtheethicalandanthropologicalaspectsofhuman–technologyrelations.Hisresearchfocusesonthedevelopmentofatheoryoftechnologicalmediation,forwhichhereceivedaVICI-awardfromtheNetherlandsOrganizationforScientificResearch.
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INTRODUCTION:ANTICIPATINGUSER-PRODUCTARRANGEMENTS
Howtoforecastthefutureuseoftechnologies?Whenorganisationswanttoprovidetheirmulti-age
employeesaworkenvironmentthatenablesthemtoworkmosteffectivelyandefficiently,theyare
infactfacingacomplicatedforecastingproblem.Notonlydoesthetechnologytheyintroducein
theirorganisationshavetomatchagreatvarietyofhumancharacteristicsandworkactivities.More
importantly,researchshowsthattechnologytransformsbehaviours(Ihde1990;Latour1999;
Dorrestijn2012a;Verbeek2005).Technologiesdonotmerelysupporttheworkofemployeesinan
instrumentalway,buttheyalsohaveanimpactonthecharacterofpeople'sworkandonthewayin
whichitisconducted.
Personalcomputers,forinstance,notonlyhavesupportedtheworkofsecretariesthatwas
traditionallydoneontype-writers,butalsohaveradicallychangedofficework,includingtheworkof
secretaries—typingtexthasbecomeoneoftheleastcentralelementsoftheirwork.Developing
andintroducingtechnologiesforworkenvironments,therefore,requireacomplicatedformof
forecastingoftheinteractionsbetweenproductsandusers.Isitpossibletopredictwhatcouldbe
satisfyingarrangementsofproductsandusersinthefuture?Andcanthisbedoneforaworkforce
thatspansawiderangeofages?
Inordertoanswerthisquestion,thispaperexploresandcombinesapproachesindesignresearch,
philosophyoftechnology,andforecastingstudies.Asatheoreticalresearchpaper,itaimsto
contributetomethodsofforecastingingeneral,withaspecialfocusonworkplacetechnologyinthe
contextofgenerationaldifferences,ageing,andworkorganisation.Hencethispaperpresentsa
frameworktoexpandforecastingapproacheswiththeoriesabouttheinteractionbetweenusersand
technologies.
Thecentralthesisofthispaperisthatadequatetechnologicalforecastingrequiresthatweexplicitly
andsystematicallytakeintoaccounttheinteractionsbetweenusersandtechnologies.Inorderto
realizethis,wemaketwotheoreticalsteps.Firstwecombinetwousesofscenariosindesign:
scenariobaseddesignandscenarioplanning.Scenariobaseddesignisamethodologydevelopedin
designresearchinwhichscenariosareappliedtoimproveuser-productinteraction.Inthiscontext,
scenariosfunctionasexplicitdescriptionsofthehypotheticalfutureuseofproductsorservices(Van
derBijl-BrouwerandVanderVoort2013).These‘usescenarios’needtobedistinguishedfromthe
‘futurescenarios’usedinscenarioplanning.Whilescenario-baseddesignfocusesonmicro-leveluse
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situations,scenarioplanningisaforecastingtechniquetofordrawingscenarioswithalargerscope
ofplaceandtime.
Secondlyweintegratetheseusesofscenariosindesignwiththeapproachof‘technicalmediation’,
whichhasitsrootsinphilosophyoftechnology.Inthiswaytheimpactoftechnologyonpeopleis
acknowledgedandusedtoinformtheusescenariosandfuturescenarios.Combiningthese
approachesresultsinasystematicheuristictooltoanticipatefuture‘interactionscenarios’between
usersandproducts,makingitpossibletodesigntheseproductsinamoreeffectiveandresponsible
way.
Asaguidingexampleforillustratingourtheoreticalexplorationofdualuseofscenariosandproduct
impactforanticipatingandoptimisingfutureuser-productarrangementswewillrefertothe
interactionbetweenwaysofworkingandworkplacefacilities.Whereasinabasicfunctionalisticview
oftechnologytechnicalfacilitiesmerelyinstrumentallyfacilitatewhatpeopledo,ourapproach
attemptstofocusattentiononhowtechnologyshapesandtransformshumanpractices.Thishas
clearimplicationswithrespecttothethemeofworkplacefacilitiesandamulti-generational
population.TechnicalinnovationintheworkplaceandespeciallyinICTfacilitiesmayseemgood
meansforsupporting,e.g.olderpeopleinremainingactiveandproductive.However,theadoption
ofnewtechnologyalsomaybeafactorinproducingadividebetweengenerations.
Manypeopleinthegenerationnowjustretiredhaveduringthepastdecadefacedthechallengeof
eitherlearningtoworkwiththecomputer,or,equallychallengingly,keepingdoingtheirworkaslong
aspossiblewithoutthecomputer.Inthemeantimecomputerizationhaspermeatedalldomainsof
work.Moreover,connectiontotheInternethasalsobecomewidespreadandportabledevicesare
becomingmoreandmorecommon.Thisbringschangesinworkingbehaviours.Anewphenomenon
isthatemployeesincreasinglyusetheirownorself-selectedsmartphone,tabletandlaptopfor
companyandworkpurposes—knownas‘BringYourOwnDevice’(BYOD).BYODhasbecomea
recurringnotionoverthelastcoupleofyearsandhasbenefitsaswellaspossibledangers(cf.
Thomson2012;Singh2012).Forecastingtheimpactofsuchchangesindifferentgenerationsrequires
anapproachthatintegratesusescenarioswithmoregeneralfuturescenarios.
SCENARIOBASEDPRODUCTDESIGN
High-qualityproductscannotbedesignedwithoutaddressingthequalityoftheinteractionofthe
productwithitsuser.Theextenttowhichaproductmeetstheexpectationsofusers,afterall,isnot
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onlyacharacteristicoftheproduct,butisfullydependentontheinteractionbetweentheproduct,
itsuserandtheenvironmentwithinwhichitisused.Forthisreason,theconceptofusabilityhas
beencoinedasaquality-measureforuser-productinteraction.Usabilitycanbedefinedastheextent
towhichaspecifiedusercanachievespecifiedgoalswitheffectiveness,efficiencyandsatisfactionin
aspecifiedcontextofuse(ISO9241-11;cf.e.g.Jordan1998,5).
Designingusableproductsrequiresdesignerstoexplicitlyresearchandaddressthevarietyamongst
users,theirgoals,theintendedproductinteractionsandtheuseenvironments.Theuseofscenarios
canbehelpfulhere.Scenariosconsistofseveralelements(RossonandCarroll2002).Theyincludea
‘startingstate’,consistingofauser(orotherstakeholder)withacertaingoalinrelationtoacertain
productinasetting.Thesettingconsistsofallcontextualaspectsthatcanpotentiallyinfluencethe
user–productinteraction,suchasthephysicalenvironment,andtheobjectsandindividualswithin
thatenvironment.Theplotofthescenariounfoldswhenanactorstartstoperformactivitiesaimed
atachievinghisorhergoal,whentheproductrespondstotheseactions,and/orwhenchangesinthe
settingaffecttheinteractionbetweentheactorandtheproduct.Fig.1illustratestherelationship
amongtheelements.
Figure1Overviewofscenarioelements(VanderBijl-Brouwer&VanderVoort2013)
Ascenariocandescribewhathappensinaparticularsituationwithoutcommittingtodetailsof
preciselyhowthingshappen(RossonandCarroll2002).Itistypicallyexpressedinawrittenor
spokennarrative.Alternativelyoradditionally,itmaybeexpressedintheformofstoryboards,
movies,role-playingand(virtual)simulations(Nielsen1990).Thepowerofscenariosistorepresent
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alternativesolutionsorusesituations,andtoexploreboundaryconditionsandenablecomparisons,
helpingtoavoidprematuredecisionsorcommitment(Carroll2000).Such‘usescenarios’enable
productdesignerstoanticipatemoresystematicallyhowuserswillinteractwiththefutureproducts,
inordertotakethisintoaccountinthedesignprocess.
SCENARIOPLANNING
Scenariosarealsousedintherelatedyetdifferentfieldofscenarioplanning.Whenorganisations
needtomakedecisionsaboutstrategiesforanuncertainfuture,theycanbenefitfromthemethod
ofscenarioplanningpioneeredbyKahn(1962).Researcherswhoadvocatescenarioplanningclaim
thatscenarioscanbeahelpfultoolfordealingwithuncertainty.Inthiscontext,scenariosaredefined
astoolsfororderingone'sperceptionsaboutalternativefutureenvironmentsinwhichone's
decisionsmightbeplayedout(Schwartz1996).
Scenarioplanningisbasedontheinvestigationofissuesthatmightplayacentralroleinfuture
situations,andontheidentificationofforcesthatdrivethoseissues.Themostimportant‘driving
forces’arethenusedtobuildvariousintegratedscenarios,whichserveasframesofreferenceto
supportandtoreflectupondecisions.Thereforescenarios‘arenotaboutpredictingthefuture,
rathertheyareaboutperceivingfuturesinthepresent’(Schwartz1996,36).
Bothscenarioplanningandscenario-basedproductdesignareusedtodealwithuncertainty
regardingthefuture.Scenarioplanningisgenerallyappliedtodealwithuncertaintyregardingthe
impactofchangesinpoliticalandsocio-economicaspectsandavailabletechnology.Ifaproductisto
beintroducedinadistantfuture,itisadvisabletoanalysetrendsthatmightinfluencethefuture
contextofuse(e.g.VanderHeijden2005).Scenario-basedproductdesign,ontheotherhand,is
generallyappliedtodealingwithuncertaintyregardingusergoals,user–productinteractionsand
usecircumstances,i.e.allfactorsthatdirectlyinfluencethelevelofusabilitythatisrealisedwitha
productdesign.
Thereisanimportantrelationbetweenscenario-baseddesignandscenarioplanning.The
introductionofanewproduct,afterall,notonlyhasimplicationsfortheinteractionsbetweenusers
andproductsonamicro-level,butalsoaffectslong-termusergoalsandusecircumstances.Scenario-
baseddesigngainsfromafutureperspective.Thebenefitforscenarioplanningisitsintegrationwith
technologydesign.Thispointcanbefurtherelaboratedwithmoreunderstandingoftheinteraction
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betweensocialandtechnicalfactorsbyintegrationwiththeapproachoftechnicalmediationand
productimpact.
Inthecontextofamulti-generationalworkforcetheissuesthatneedtobeaddressedinscenarios
includetheextenttowhichdifferentgenerationsarefamiliarwith,andskilledinusingtechnologies
asaresultoftheirexperienceoreducationoutsidetheworkplace,variationsinthespeedandnature
ofthelearningprocessthathastotakeplaceasnewtechnologiesareintroducedaswellas
organisationalenvironmentsinwhichtheremaybeaspectrumofcompetenceandengagementwith
technologythatisfarwiderthanhasbeenthecaseinrecentyears.
TECHNICALMEDIATIONTHEORYANDPRODUCTIMPACTTOOL
Ausefulstartingpointforunderstandingtheimpactofproductsonhumansistheapproachof
technicalmediationfromthephilosophyoftechnology.Whiletechnicalmediationisacommonly
employedconcept(McLuhan2003;Ihde1990;Feenberg2002;Latour1999),ithasbecome
altogethercentralinthe‘post-phenomenological’approachinphilosophyoftechnologythat
developedoutoftheworkofNorthAmericanphilosopherDonIhde(e.g.Ihde1990).Thisapproach
hasresultedinaphilosophyortheoryoftechnologicalmediation(seeVerbeek2005;2011).
Thenotionoftechnicalmediationismeanttogobeyondananalysiswherethesphereofhumansis
opposedtothatoftechnology,aswascommoninthephilosophyoftechnologyinthetwentieth
century.Inthemediationapproach,humansandtechnologiesareseenasfundamentallyinterwoven
andinterdependent.Thefocusofphilosophicalresearchhasshiftedfromprotectingagenuine
humansphereagainsttechnologicalalienationtowardsinvestigatingthefundamentallyinterwoven
characterofhumansandtechnologies.Howdotechnologieshelptoshapehumanpractices,
experiences,responsibilities,interpersonalrelations,etc.?Technologieshavemultipleimpactson
humanexistenceandmodesofliving,whichneedtobeconceptualized,studied,andevaluated.
Theconcentrationonmediationmarksan‘empiricalturn’(Achterhuis2001)inthephilosophyof
technology,i.e.agrowingcollaborationwithempiricalstudiesoftechnologyinthefieldofScience
andTechnologyStudies(STS)andwithengineeringandproductdesignpractices.Themediation
approachthusoffersthepossibilityofcombiningphilosophicalandethicalanalysisoftechnology
withsocialsciencesanddesignperspectives.TheProductImpactTooldevelopedbyDorrestijn
(2012a;2012b)followsthisup,byproposinganinterdisciplinaryoverviewofconceptsandtypesof
impactoftechnologyonusersandsociety.
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TheheartoftheProductImpactToolisadiagramwhichdisplaysarepertoireofeffectsoftechnology
onhumans(seeFig.2).Theeffectsareorderedaccordingtothequestion‘fromwhichside’humans
areaffectedbytheimpactoftechnology.Fourdimensionsofproductimpactsaredistinguished,
representedbyfourquadrantsinthediagram:before-the-eye,to-the-hand,behind-the-back,and
above-the-head.Theapproachandtermsareinspiredbyphenomenologicalresearchinphilosophy
andmediastudies(Flusser1999;Ihde1990;McLuhan2003;Verbeek,2005).Itisalsopossibletouse
themodelwithoutmuchreferencetothesebackgroundtheoriesandtodescribethedimensionsina
morecommondesignandexactsciencesvocabularyasfollows:cognitive,physical,environmental,
andabstract.Nowfollowsaconciseoverviewofthemodelandexemplaryimpacts(seeDorrestijn
2012aforanelaborateversionandextensivereferences).
Figure2ProductImpactModel
Before-the-eye(cognitive).Technologycaninfluencehumansbyaddressingtheirdecision-making
faculty.Thefirsttypeofinfluenceinthequadrantbefore-the-eyeis‘guidance’towardsintendeduse.
Indesignthiseffectisaddressedbyaimingforself-evidentformsandcolours,byaddingarrowsand
text,etc.Theinfluenceonhumanactioncanalsobemoreintrusive:‘persuasion’throughdesign.In
thiscasetechnologynotonlyguidestowardsproperusebutisdesignedwiththeaimofinterferingin
people'sbehaviour,asinthecaseofpop-upbannersonwebsites.Ineithercasetechnology
addressesthehumandecision-makingprocess.Athirdtypeofeffectistheexpressionof‘lifestyle’by
design.Productslikecarsorclothingallowpeopletoshapeandexpresstheiridentity.
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Howdoesthisrelatetotheissueofageingandmultiageworkinginorganisations?Theintroduction
ofthegraphicalinterfaceoncomputershasenhancedthe‘guidance’ofusersinfindingthedifferent
functions.Thishasmadecomputersmoreeasilyusableforpeoplewhodonotunderstandcode.An
oldergenerationwhointhe1980's,whencomputerscametotheworkplace,wouldnothave
imaginedeveradoptingcomputers,isnowcatchingupandisusingemailonpcortabletasamatter
ofcourse.Thefigureof‘lifestyle’playsaroleaswellhere.Whilesomepeopleremainproudnon-
users,mostpeoplewanttoidentifythemselveswithmembersoftoday'sdigitalworldandnotwith
computerilliterates.
To-the-hand(physical).Productscanalsoshortcutdecisionmakinganddirectlyimpacttheuser's
bodyandgestures.Thefirsttypeofinfluenceinthisquadrantis‘coercion’.Thisisperhapsthemost
obviousofallimpactsoftechnology.Examplesareafencetocontrolpeople'saccessoraspeed
bumpforcingcardriverstoslowdown.Theeffectof‘mediatedgestures’denoteshumanactivities
whereembodimentoftechnologiesplaysarole,asinwritingwithpencilorridingabike.‘Subliminal
affect’isthetypeofeffectofbeingattractedorrepelledbyonlyhalf-conscioussensations,for
examplemarketersadvisesupermarketstointroducethesmelloffreshbreadandcoffeetoenhance
people'sperception/experienceofhospitalityandinfluencetheirbuyingmood.
ICTfacilitiesatouruniversityofferanexampleforthefigureof‘coercion’.Inrecentyearsa
centralisedworkplacesoftwaremanagementsystemhasdeniedemployeesmostadministrator
rightsovertheirpc's.Userscanonlyinstallsoftwarefromalimitedselectionandotherwisecannot
changewhatisontheircomputer.Anadvantageisthatnotmuchcangowrong—andfromthe
employer'sperspectivethereisenhancedcontroloversecurityandcosts.Thisdenialof
administratorrightsembeddedinthesystemisanimpactbestdescribedwiththefigureof
‘coercion’.
Behind-the-back(environmental).Apartfrominfluencesthroughdirectcontact,technologycanalso
influencepeopleratherindirectly.Thematerial-technicalenvironmentandinfrastructureforma
backgroundthatfacilitatesordirectshumanactionandhistory.Againthreeexemplarytypesof
effectsaredistinguished.‘Technicaldeterminism’isabouthowthematerialconditionsinthe
environmentdeterminethecourseofhumanhistory.Asecondexampleis‘trendreinforcementor
conflict’.Thesuccessofaproductisoftendependentonitsenvironment.Theinventionofglasses
reinforcedthesuccessoftheprintingpress,suchasforolderpeopleasdiscussedfurtherbelow.But
thesuccessofthecarhasalsocausedareverseeffect,namelytrafficjams.Thirdly,anenvironment
expectsandtosomedegreeaffectshowpeopleare,theirnorms,andhowtheybehave.Aclean
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environmentpromotesdecentattitudes.Surveillancecamerasareintendedtoenhancepeople's
moralityandbringsafety,butmayalsoincreasefeelingsofinsecurityorintrusivemonitoring.Inthe
productimpactmodelthisisreferredtoas‘environmentalconditioningofsubjectivity’.
ThephenomenonofBYODthatwereferredtoabovecontrastssharplywiththecentralisedITpolicy
mentionedjustabove.Weseeagoodexampleofconflicting‘trends’.Manyemployeesfindit
frustratingthattheycannotcustomisetheirownsystem.Somefinditunacceptable.Theyeither
demandanexceptionandbeinggivenadministratorrightsafterall,usetheirownappliances,or
evenloadanewoperatingsystemandusethelaptoptheyhavebeenprovidedwithastheirown.
PeopletodayliveinaworldfullofallkindofnetworkedmobileICTappliancesandubiquitous
opportunitiestoadaptandcustomisedevices;suchenvironmentalfactorsneedtobeincludedas
significantfactorswhenforecastingproductimpact.Inaddition,inthisparticularcontext,flex-work
andflexibilityingeneralareevermoreindemandbyemployers.Asaresulttheemployees'
experienceoftechnologyisnotlimitedtoasingleenvironmentwithinaspecificorganisation.Hence
itcanonlybeexpectedthatcentralisedICTfacilitieswithverystrictprocedurescomeunderpressure
forbeingunacceptabletolargegroupsofemployees.
Above-the-head(abstract).The‘above-the-head’quadrantenclosesgeneralizing,philosophical
claimsabouttherelationbetweentechnologyontheonehandandhumansandsocietyonthe
other.Graspingtheinterdependencyoftechnologyandsocietyatthisgenerallevelisspeculative;at
least,opinionsareverydiverseandoftencontradictory.Theviewsoftechnologyvaryfrom‘utopian’
beliefinprogressbymeansoftechnology(thetypicalviewinmodernity)to‘dystopian’fearof
domination(prevailinginthetwentiethcenturywiththenuclearbombandecologicalcrisis).The
viewof‘ambivalenthybridity’isthepositionofcontemporarymediationtheory,wherethehybridity
ofhumansandtechnologyisacknowledged,butwithneithereuphorianordespair.
Inthe1960stherewasmuchspeculationaboutthelikelihoodthattechnologicaladvanceswould
resultinmassiveproductivityincreasesandreduceddemandforhumanactivity—withresulting
massunemployment.Althoughincreasesinproductivitydidoccur,thehumanpopulationrapidly
adaptedtothisandincreaseditslevelofdemandsothathighlevelsofemploymentpersistedfar
longerthanhadbeenpredicted.Possiblyasaresult,currentpoliticalperspectivescontinuetoregard
unemploymentandunderemploymentas‘problems’yetalsosupportanindustrialnexusthatseeks
everimprovedproductivityfromthosewhoareemployed.Inamulti-generationalenvironment
theremaybeaneedtodevelopahuman-technologynarrativethatavoidspurelyproductivity-based
rankingofemployees,giventheirvaryinglevelsoftechnicalskill,productivityandparticipation—
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evenwhendoingdirectlycomparablejobs.Insuchaperspectivetechnologycanbeseenasan
enablerofdiversity,butthiswillonlybepositiveifunderpinnedbysupportfor,andvaluingof,that
diversity.
PRODUCTIMPACTANDSCENARIOSINDESIGN
Howcanproductimpactberecombinedwiththeuseofscenariosindesigntoaddressfutureuseof
productsinamulti-agesociety?Withregardtoscenariosindesign,adistinctionwasmadebetween
scenario-basedproductdesignandscenarioplanning.Theproductimpactmodeloffersa
differentiationwithinthethemeoftechnicalmediation:acategorizationoftheeffectsoftechnology
onusersinfourways.Howdothesedifferentcategoriesofproductimpactandscenariosindesign
bestcomplementeachother?Thedirectproductimpacts(to-the-handandbefore-the-eye)are
particularlyrelevantforanalysing,forecastinganddesigningwaysofhandlingofproductsbyusers.
Thisistheapplicationdomainofscenariobaseddesign.Theindirecttypesofproductimpact
(behind-the-backandabove-the-head)operateinawidercontextandinthelongterm.Therefore
thesearetheproductimpactsthataremosthelpfulinthedomainofscenarioplanning.Thisleadsto
twocombinationsofproductimpacttheoryandscenariosindesignforanticipatinguser-product
arrangements(seeFig.3).Directproductimpactcanbeintegratedwithscenariobaseddesignfor
theassessmentanddesignofuser-productinteractions.Indirectproductimpactcanbecombined
Futureuser-productarrangements
Combiningscenariosandtheproductimpactindesign
Directproductimpacts
Before-the-eye
To-the-hand
Scenariobaseddesign
Assessmentanddesignofuser-product
interactions
Indirectproductimpacts
Above-the-head
Behind-the-back
Scenarioplanning
Forecastingof,andattuningto,socio-
technicalco-evolution
Figure3CombiningProductImpactandScenariosinDesign
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withscenarioplanningleadingtoanapproachofforecastingofandattuningtosocio-technicalco-
evolution.Inthesubsequentsectionsthesetwocombinationsareelaborated.
ASSESSMENTANDDESIGNOFFUTUREUSER-PRODUCTINTERACTIONS
Inscenario-baseddesign,scenariosareusedasameanstodevelopamorerealisticpictureofactual
usesituations.Theproductimpactapproachcanhelpdrawingandevaluatingsuchscenariosby
accountingfortheimpactofproductsonpeople'sactions.Itisamodeofthinkingthathelpstobreak
awayfromtheschemeofpre-existinguserneedsandthesearchforthemostefficienttechnical
solutiontofulfiltheseneeds.Thataproductdoesordoesnotyetfullydelivertouserswhatitis
intendedtodeliverwithinawell-definedsituationisoftenfarfromacompletedescriptionofwhatis
actuallyhappening.Insteaditisnecessarytoresearchalsowhataproductactuallymakesusersdo.
Thismeans‘lookingtheotherwayaround’foramoment:notstartingfromassumedneedsand
intendeduse,butfocusingonwhatatechnologyactuallydoesorcoulddotoitsusers,irrespectiveof
designers'assumptionsandintentions.
Thecombinationofthemediationapproachandscenario-baseddesignishelpfulforachievingthe
goalsofscenario-baseddesign,namelyimprovingusabilityanduser-centreddesign.Theimpact
typesofguidance,persuasionandcoercioncanbeusedtoevaluateanddesignhowpeopleare
directedtowardsgoodwaysofusingproducts.
Butthecombinationalsostretchesthescopeofscenario-baseddesigntowardsdesignthatassumes
largersocialandethicalgoals.Thereisagrowingawarenessoftheinfluencesoftechnologyon
humansindesigntheory.Forexample,theideaof‘persuasivetechnology’asconceivedbyFogg
(2003)isthatproductscanbedesignedtostimulatepeopletochangetheirbehaviourandattitudes.
Smartenergymeters,forinstance,canpersuadeandhelppeopletoreduceenergyconsumption.A
similarapproachwasadvancedbyThalerandSunstein(2008),whocalldesignerstotakeinto
accounthowtechnologiespre-structurehumanchoices.Sucheffectscouldbeusedtoproducts
‘nudge’userstowardsdecisionsthataregenerallyconsidereddesirable.
IntheworkofNynkeTrompandJantineBouma,productimpacttheoriesliketheseareframedwith
thegoalofrealisinganapproachof‘socialdesign’(Trompetal.2011;Tromp2013;Bouma2013).
Verbeek(2011)presentsaframeworkforincorporatingtechnicalmediationtheoryindesign,
comprisingthreebranchesorstagesofactivities:anticipationofmediations,assessmentof
mediations,andthedeliberatedesignofmediations.Inthismorephilosophicalperspective,the
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ethicaldimensionisupfront,implyingasimilarcallforsocialdesign.Itisequallyanexplicit
conclusionoftheworkbyDorrestijn(2012a)ontheProductImpactToolthatthecombinationof
technicalmediationresearch,ethicsanddesignwouldleadtoavisionofsociallyengageddesign.
Howcouldaproductimpactassessmenthelptoexplorethesocialimpactsofnewworkplace
facilities,andthevarietyofreactionsofdifferentgroupsofusers?Theroleoftechnologygoes
beyondfacilitatinggiventrendsinwaysofworkinginanintentionalandcontrolledway.Technology
playsamoreactivepartintransformingwaysofworking.Theproductimpact‘coercion’inthedesign
ofanITworkplacemanagementsystemhasalreadybeenmentionedabove.Assessmentofand
copingwithdifferentgroupsandgenerationsofusersisachallengehere.Perhapslessconfident,less
experienced,youngerorolderworkersfeelwellprovidedforandsecurewithcentralisedICT
facilities,whereasmoreexperiencedandsomeyoungerpeoplewhoathomefullyemploymobile
andnetworktechnologiesmayfeelfrustratedandmayprefermoreandmoretoberesponsiblefor
alltheequipmenttheyworkwith—andthatincludestheirpersonalequipmenttheybringinto
work.
Therearealsomoresocietalissuesinvolvedwhenlookingatchanginghabitsandnormsconcerning
flex-workingandthefusionofworkandleisuretime.Willusingpersonallyownedequipmentatwork
leadtostafftakingworkfacilitieshomewiththemmoreoften,ormostofthetime?Andcouldthis
notpersuadepeopletoevermorefuseworkandleisuretime?Whathasbeentheeffectofusing
workemailonpersonalsmartphonesondistinctionbetweenworkandhome?Isitpossible,wouldit
bedesirable,toinfluenceofficehourspeoplekeep?
Scenarioswhichaccountfortheimpactoftechnologyonbehaviourcaninformuserresearch,design
andco-creationpractices.Thisbothhelpstobetteranticipatefutureworkingpracticesandhelpsto
takeresponsibilityforsocialeffectsoftechnology.
FORECASTINGOFANDATTUNINGTOSOCIO-TECHNICALCO-EVOLUTION
Nowwewillelaboratehowindirectproductimpactandscenarioplanningcanreinforceeachother.
Inscenarioplanning,typicallytwouncertainfactorsarechosen.Thesebecomevariableswhichcan
beputontwoaxes,leadingtoamatrixwithfourscenarios.Whenweusescenarioplanningfor
thinkingthroughthepossibleimplicationsoffuturetechno-logicaldevelopments,typicallyan
uncertainsocialvariableisputononeaxisandatechnicalvariableontheother.Forexample,society
coulddeveloptowardsmoreindividualityortowardsmorecommunality;workplaceICTfacilities
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coulddevelopinthedirectionofeithercompanycontrolledfacilitiesorBYOD(BringYourOwn
Device).
Heretheproductimpactmodelcancontributetoimprovingunderstandingoftheinterdependency
ofsocietaldevelopmentsandtechnicaldevelopments.Thetwodimensionsdonotsimplygo
togetherwellornot,butinteractanddetermineeachothertosomeextent.Thiscombinationof
philosophyoftechnologyandscenarioplanningseemspotentiallyfruitful,butisasyetlargely
unexplored(forexampleseeforarecentoverview:Wright,Cairns&Bradfield2013).
Fordrawingscenariodiagramsinformedbyproductimpacttheabstractconceptionsoftechnology
(‘above-the-head’)intermsofutopiananddystopiantechnologyofferahelpfulheuristicschemeto
exploretheextremitiesofpossiblefutures.Inthinkingabouttechnologyandespeciallyinthecaseof
controversiestheextremeviewsofutopiananddystopiantechnologycanoftenberecognized.A
‘utopia/dystopiasyndrome’hauntsthinkingabouttechnologyaccordingtocriticHansAchterhuis
(1998).Thisisanotherexpressionofthecallforamediationapproachinsteadofanoverly
generalizingphilosophicalanalysisoftechnology.Still,inthecontextofforecastingtechniques,these
generalandextremeviewscanserveassourcesofinspirationforimaginingpotentiallybeneficialand
threateningimpactsoftechnologiessuchasinformationtechnologiesoninexperiencedandolder
workers.
Togiveaconciseillustrationinthedomainofchangingworkingfacilitiesandbehaviours,wecould
imagineanextremescenarioinwhichportablegearandtheBYODtrendpushflex-working,working
fromhome,home–workfusionsofarastotransformultimatelyeveryemployeeintoafree-lancer.
Togetherwithnewproductiontechniquessuchas3-Dprintingallworkcouldbeexecutedawayfrom
acentralplaceofwork.Wecallthisthe‘endofthecompanyasweknowit’scenario.Adigitaland
virtualhubormarketplacewouldmatchworktobedonewithindividualentrepreneursabletodo
thejob.Inautopianversionofthisscenariothiswouldbeatransitionwelcomedbypeopleand
wouldmeananincreaseinthesenseoffreedom,commitment,productivityandeconomicaswellas
psychologicalwelfare.Itwouldmeantheendofworkerexploitationandwouldenhanceevery
individual'sautonomy.Andtheflexibilitywouldalloweverybody,ofanyageandcapability,towork
accordingtotheircapabilities.Inadystopianversionofthisscenariothenewarrangementswould
beexperiencedbytoomanypeopleastooindividualistic,toocompetitiveandaltogetheroutof
control.Itcouldcausenewdividesbetweengenerations.Theaugmentationofchoicewouldinthis
scenarioturnnegativeandleadtoconfusion,reducedproductivityandstagnation.
14
Inaddition,lessonsfromthedomainsofhistory,geographyandsociologyconcerningpatternsin
socio-technicalevolution(‘behind-the-back’)helptoevaluateandrefinetheseextremescenarios
andtodevelopmoremoderateandrealisticversionsthatcanbeusedasabasisforpolicy-making
anddesign.Whiletheabstractideas‘above-the-head’haveatendencytowardstheextremes,the
actualsocialembeddingoftechnologiestypicallyfollowsamoremoderatepath.Here,focusingon
impacts‘behind-the-back’,suchashistoricalpatternsofmutualadaptationbetweentechnologyand
society,canhelptoframemorerealisticscenariosoffuturesocio-technicalregimes.
Inordertobetterunderstandhistoricalpatternsintheco-evolutionoftechnologyandsocietythe
analysisofrecurringpatternsof‘remediation’byBolterandGrusin(1999)canplayacrucialrole.
Whennewtechnologiesreplaceolderones,oftentheyaretypicallyusedsimplytoserveold
purposes,andareevendesignedtolooklikethetechnologytheyreplace—asinthecaseofearly
automobileswhichhadtheappearanceofhorsecarriages.However,afterthisinitialstage,the
displacementofonetechnologybyanotheroftenmakesapparenthowtheformerpracticeswere
technicallymediated,andthatnewtechnologiescaninfactbeseenas‘remediations’.This
‘remediation’canfacilitateanunderstandingofthesocialembeddingofnewtechnologies.The
mechanismofnewmediaemergingindisguisehinderstheexploitationofthenewfunctionsthatare
characteristicofthenewmedium.Atthesametime,however,peopleoftenneedanalogieslinking
thenewerwiththeolderinordertobepreparedtorecognizeandusenewtechnologies.
Besidespatternsinthesuccessionoftechnologies,anothereffectoftechnologiesonhumansinthe
realmoftechnicalevolutionistheco-existenceandinterdependenceofdifferenttechnologies.One
example,mentionedabove,istherelation-shipbetweentheinventionsofprintingandspectacles
(Friedel2007,92).Theprintingpresscouldnothaveachieveditssuccesswithoutthesimultaneous
spreadofspectacles.Withoutglassesalargeproportionofthepopulation,especiallyinoldage,is
notabletoread.Theavailabilityofglassesisanenvironmentalfactorwithoutwhichtheprinting
presscouldneverhavebeenassuccessfulandcouldnothavehadsuchasignificantimpacton
society.
Thereverseeffect,wherethesuccessofatechnologyishinderedbyenvironmentalfactors,occursas
well.Oneexampleisthe‘reboundeffect’.Low-energylightbulbsareintendedtosaveenergy,but
becausepeoplehaveincreasedtheiruseofelectricallightingsincetheintroductionoflow-energy
bulbs,forexampletoilluminatethegarden,theeffecthasbeenlessimportantthananticipated
(VerbeekandSlob2006,3–4).Anotherexampleisthatthecarhashada‘joggingeffect’(Regis
15
Debray2000,59).Thecarmeansthatpeoplenolongerhavetowalk,withtheeffectthatmany
peoplehavetakenupjoggingintheirleisuretime.Here,too,therearetwoconflictingtrends:there
isadesireforspeedandconvenience,butwhenthisisfulfilledtoomuchitappearstobeconflicting
withanothervalue,namelythatofbeingfitandhealthy.
Inanotherexample,portableICTappliancestodayarenowsuppliedbyemployersasanextensionof
fixedfacilitiestoenableemployeestoworkmoreeasilyfromhomeorontheroad.Ouranalysis
howeverenlargesthescopeofresearchtoincludesocialtransformationsduetothesenew
technologies.Anincreaseinflexibilityofworkplacefacilitiesmayatfirstsightalsomeanan
advantageforolderworkers,allowingthemtoworkpartlyfromhome,forexample.Theadvantage
maywellreverseintoadisadvantageiftheaccompanyingeffectoffree-lanceworkingpersists.Asa
resultsocialsecurity,retirementmoneyandoccupationalhealthandsafetymightbecomemoreof
anindividualresponsiblyandcausenewdividesinthepopulation.Scenarioplanninginformedby
productimpactmayhelptothinkthroughsucheffectsinsocio-technicalstructures.Awarenesshelps
understandingandacceptanceofcircumstancesonecannotchange,andifpossibleincorporationof
organisationalchangeandserviceconceptsintothedesignassignment.
DESIGNIMPLICATIONS
Fromauser-centredaswellasfromaphilosophicalperspectivetherealworldisfuzzierthan
traditionalengineeringapproacheswouldlike.Userneedsandbehaviourevolveovertime,asdo
technicalfunctionalityandmeaning.Designingsolutionsforuserneedsdefinedfora‘frozen’
momentintimetendstoleadtosuboptimaldesignsthatinadequatelyaddresstheiractualuse
situationsanduserneeds.Thereforeamajorchallengefordesignistoanticipatethefutureuseof
productstoallowforfeasibleuser-productarrangementswhileatthesametimeacknowledgingthat
thisfutureuseisinitselfdynamic.Inapracticalapproachthebroaderinsightsfromfuturescenarios
mustbetranslatedbackintoamoreconcreteforminordertohelpassessmentanddesigninan
actualsituation.Henceacycleofvariablespanemerges,beginningwithscenariosforgrasping
concreteusepracticesviamorespeculativescenarioplanningandbacktoconcreteassessmentand
designofuser-productarrangements.
Wewillnowsummarizethecycleofstepsthatwepropose,appliedtoarrangementsoffacilitiesand
practicesinamulti-generationalworkenvironment.Whereasatraditionalfunctionalistapproach
mayfocusonissuesofaccess,security,andproductivitynumbers,itfailstograspthedynamicsand
interactionbetweentechnologyanduserpractices.Thefirststepofimprovementistoapply
16
scenariobaseddesignanddirectproductimpactinordertoinvestigatethewayinwhichnew
technologyinfluencespeople(guidance,persuasion,coercion)andhowthismayprovokeavarietyof
differentreactionsfordifferentusers.DoBYODfacilitiesandpracticesengenderasenseoffreedom
andflexibility,orratherconfusionandinsecurity?Anddoesitcausehome–workfusing,andwhatare
theconsequencesforcommitmenttoemployers?Suchquestionscouldbeelaboratedintoscenarios
andcheckedbyuserresearchandinparticipatorydesignsessionswithworkersofdifferent
generations.
Inasecondstep,scenarioplanningcoupledwithindirectproductimpactcanbeusedtothink
throughbroaderandlongertermtransformations.Abovewesketchedafuturescenarioofthe‘end
ofthecompanyasweknowit’toimaginethepossibilitiesandissueswithflex-workingpractices
pushedtotheextreme.Thiscanbeusedtorevealstructuralissuesthatcannotbechangedand
hencetowhichdesignmustbeattuned,orwhichdemand,abroaderproblemdefinitionintermsof
systemdesignorproductservicecombination.Cloudsolutionsandsecurityareexamplesof
macroconditionsthatcannotbechanged,butstillhaveimplicationsfordesignonamoremicrolevel.
Itseemsofnousetoaimforveryhighsecuritymeasuresinacompanynetworkifatthesametime
thesynchronisationandaccessibilityfeaturesdonotcompeteineaseofusewiththoseoffreethird
partyclouddrives.Employeeswillbetemptedtocopyfilesthattheyalsouseathometocloud
services.Rulesofpolicywillhardlypreventemployeesdoingsoifthereisapracticalpenaltybecause
companyremoteworkingfacilitiesarehardertousethanthirdpartyservices.
Thethirdstepisaboutclosingthecircleagain:fromuserpractices(micro,directinteraction)to
speculatingandfore-castinglargertransformations(macro,indirect),finallybacktothelevelofuse
practicesandconcretedesignagain.Inthecontextofeasytousethirdpartycloudservices,if–for
securityreasons–companiesdowanttorestricttheuseofthirdpartynetworks,thenthe
implicationisthatrulesofpolicymustbebackedupbyeasytoaccesscompanydrivesandsimple
synchronisation.Specificallywithregardtothethemeofageing,wenotedbeforethatatrend
towardsBringYourOwnDevicestylefacilitieswillprobablycontinueamongyoungeremployees.
Whileworkingfromhomeandflex-workingmayofferopportunitiesforsomeolderworkersaswell,
othersmayneedmuchmoreanddifferentsupport,creatingtheneedforacorporateITsupport
functionthatdiffersfromcurrentpracticebybeingmoremany-sidedandflexible,andpotentially
moreintegratedwithoperationaltrainingandmanagement.Thecycleofstepsthereforemakesclear
howexternal,socialandpersonalfactorshaveimplicationsnotonlyforthespecificapplicationsof
introducedtechnologybutalsoatanorganisationallevel.Furtherimplicationsmayalsoemergefrom
17
thegradualspreadofITliteracyontheonehandandtaskredesign(e.g.tosupportoutsourcingor
administrativefunctions)ontheother.
CONCLUSION
Anticipatingfutureuseisachallengingtaskthatentailsahighlevelofuncertainty.Inorderto
improvethedesignoffutureuser-productarrangementsweproposetheapplicationofscenario
techniquesindesigninformedbytheproductimpactmodelfromtechnicalmediation.Workingwith
usescenariosandfuturescenariosinformedbyproductimpacttheoryhelpstoanticipatefuture
user-productarrangementsinnewways.Itmakesitpossibletotakeaccountofimpactsof
technologythatpeoplethemselvesareonlyvaguelyawareofandthereforeoftenremainhiddenin
userresearchbyinterviews.Inasimilarwayourapproachenhancesscenarioplanning.Insteadof
consideringjustwhichtechnicalandwhichsocialdevelopmentsmaycoincideandmatchmoreor
lesswell,theproductimpactapproachmakesitpossibleforscenariostobecompiledonthebasisof
aninformedjudgementofhowtechnicalandsocialfactorsinfluenceeachother.
Thecombinationofapproachesthusresultsincontributionstoforecastingstudiesandtechniques,
aswellastodealingwithuncertaintyaboutfutureproductuseindesignpractice.Thematchingof
technicalpossibilitiesandsocietaldevelopmentsisakeyprocessinforecastingandanticipating
futureuser-productarrangements.Thesocietaldevelopmentrepresentedbymulti-generational
workforcesistypicaloftheforceswhichcaneasilybeoverlookedbydesignerswhosefocusison
micro-aspectsofusabilityandwehavearguedthatitisnecessarytoexaminethetechnology
mediationaspectsinsuchadiverseenvironment,andtheconsequentdesignimperatives.Weused
theproductimpactmodelwhichoffersabroadoverviewofdifferentfiguresoftechnicalmediation,
butalsoacategorizationwhichsupportsadaptiontoothermethodsandpracticalapplication.
Theindirectproductimpacts(above-the-headandbehind-the-back)helptoinformthecompilation
andevaluationoffuturescenariosinthescenarioplanningforecastingtechnique.Thefocusisshifted
tofutureinteractionscenariosinsuchawaythatdonotonlythescenarioscomparesocialand
technicalfactors,butunderstandingofthemutualinfluencingisemployedfortheconstructionof
futureinteractionscenarios.Thisisanewfocusinscenarioplanningwhichhelpstostimulate
imaginingpossiblesocio-technicalarrangements,andtherebycontributestoforecastingtechniques.
Wehavealsocombinedthisperspectiveonforecastingwithscenariobaseddesign.Thedirect
productimpacts(before-the-eyeandto-the-hand)canbeappliedtoinformthescenariosusedin
18
user-centredandparticipatorydesignmethods.Itisanenrichmentofscenariobaseddesign
methodologytoaddproductimpactonuserbehaviourandalsothemorelongtermdevelopmentsof
scenarioplanning.
Finallywehavediscussedanorder,acycle,illustratinghowtheinteractingscenariosofdifferent
scoperelatetoeachotherandhaveimplicationsfordesignpractice.Andwehaveillustratedour
theoreticalexplorationwithexamplesthatarerelevantforthethemeofworkingfacilitiesand
behavioursinrelationtoamulti-generationalworkforce.Technologymaybeappliedasameansto
supportageingworkersbutwillsimultaneouslyhaveimpactsonotherworkersandtherangeofuses
madebyallofthemwillhaveimplicationsbothforthefurtherdevelopmentoftechnologyandfor
theorganisationalenvironmentsinwhichitisdeployed.Thusourtheoreticalapproachandexamples
makeusbetterawareoftheeffectsnewtechnologyhasonworkingbehaviours.Ourexamples
suggestthattheseeffectsmayjustaswellgointhedirectionofaugmentingthedividebetween
generations,andfullattentioniscalledfortopreventormanagethis.Onedesignandorganisation
challengeseemstobe:HowtodevelopICTworkingfacilitiesandserviceswhichbothsufficiently
guidelessconfident,lessexperiencedorolderworkersbutdonotconfineandfrustrateother
sectionsoftheworkforce.
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