c. drews, l. hawkes, n. bood and j. hoffman wwf - programa marino y de especies
DESCRIPTION
Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere. WHMSI III - Asunci ón 2008. C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies para Latinoam érica y el Caribe. Methane load of the atmosphere. The good news: Conservation works!. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman
WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies
para Latinoamérica y el Caribe
Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere
Methane load of the atmosphere
WHMSI III - Asunción 2008
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The good news: The good news: Conservation works!Conservation works!
……well, does it really?well, does it really?
… … a matter of time-scale …a matter of time-scale …
……well, does it really?well, does it really?
… … a matter of time-scale …a matter of time-scale …
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Climate Change - how does it affect Climate Change - how does it affect marine biodiversity?marine biodiversity?
• Increasing ambient and SST• Sea level rise• Acidification, salinity changes and O2
• Alterations in oceanic currents• Intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
– (e.g. rainfall, drought, storms and hurricanes)• (UV radiation via link with temperature) - JENNY
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Iguazu - WWF Carlos Drews
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Proyecciones regionales (IPCC)
Figure
Figure 11.15
Annual mean, DJF and JJA temp and precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099
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A CLIMATE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN
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Annual precipitation
Source: Hulme & Sheard 1999 WWF and CRU
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Even if the world community succeeds in reducing CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards, ocean levels will rise by between 0.40 to 1.40 meters, maybe not in the 21st century, but a bit later.
IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri, Spiegel, 19 November, 2007
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Cancún - desde 57 km
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2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Cancún - desde 57 km
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2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Yucatán - desde 587 km
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Source: Holland & Webster 2007
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Impacts of climate change
- Fish
- Coral reefs
- Marine turtles
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-Changes in abundance and Changes in abundance and distribution distribution
- Some tropical waters - Some tropical waters empoverished empoverished
What are the impacts on fish?What are the impacts on fish?
Implications to food security and coastal economies.
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Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO
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2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO
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Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003 (WWF-ICRAN) Economics of reef degradation.
Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003.
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Warmer SST - impacts to coral reefs
WWF / Cat Holloway
WWF / Melanie McField
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2005• Hottest year since
records (1880)• Record: hurricane
frequency (13) and intensity (Wilma)
• 50-100% bleaching• Disease followed
bleaching• Mortality: US Virgin
Islands 52%, T&T 73% in some colonies
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The future• Unknown increase in
thermal tolerance
• “Committed” thermal stress next 20-30 years
• Optimistic forecast: low intensity bleaching (> 2oC
DHM) every 2 years by 2050s.
• Annual severe bleaching if business as usual
Source: Wilkinson & Souter 2008
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• More intense storms
Observed climate change impacts in Belize
Hurricane Iris 2000
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Elevated sea temperatures = bleaching
Climate change impacts in Belize
Southern lagoon reef 1998 Reef death in 1998 (95%)
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• Flooding with damage to properties
Climate change impacts in Belize
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The cost of inaction
• Overall, in the Caribbean, climate change is predicted to cause an annual loss of US$ 109.9 million in terms of increased sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise and loss of species among others, which equates to 13.8% of the total GDP
Source: Tol, R.S.J. (1997) A Decision-Analytic Treatise of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
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Money talks: how much is a Money talks: how much is a marine turtle worth?marine turtle worth?
A marine turtle is worth more alive than deadA marine turtle is worth more alive than dead
NON- CONSUMPTIVE USENON- CONSUMPTIVE USECONSUMPTIVE USECONSUMPTIVE USE
By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)
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Marine turtle tourism in the Western Hemisphere
• Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Grenada, Guyana, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, USA (Florida), …
• 15 nations, at least 50 sites, and increasing …
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Healthy EcosystemHealthy Ecosystem
Vital EconomyVital Economy
Social Well-BeingSocial Well-Being
FinancialFinancial
PoliticalPolitical
SocialSocialHumanHuman
BuiltBuilt
NaturalNatural
CulturalCultural
•Two thirds of countries with developing economies have marine turtles
•175,000 turtle tourists / year, 175,000 turtle tourists / year, more than 90 sites in more than 40 countries.
• 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 guides, 26.292 visitors)guides, 26.292 visitors)
• 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by Projeto TAMAR Projeto TAMAR (merchandizing & tourism)(merchandizing & tourism)
• Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle alive than deadalive than dead
Marine turtles: a driver of cash incomeMarine turtles: a driver of cash income
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BEACHES - a prime asset for tourism
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Myrtle Beach - WWF Carlos Drews
Marejada en Junquillal - WWF/ Gabriel Francia
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25oC
27oC
34oC
32oC
29oC
Temperature Sex Determination
Climate change causes sex ratio biases and mortalityClimate change causes sex ratio biases and mortality
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Época seca
Predicción del porcentaje de sexos en
los diferentes puntos
Más machos
Más hembras
100 % hembras
Desnaturalización de los huevos
WWF Carlos Drews
Fuente: Micaela Peña-Mosquera 2006
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Third generation conservation
- Threats are “God given” agents
- New challenges / knowledge / capacity gaps
- Resilience: a new perspective on mitigation of non-climate stressors
- Adapting people and ecosystems to the inevitable
- Crystal ball driven