by the numbers: part two
TRANSCRIPT
• Welcome
• By The Numbers – Part II
• Questions and Answers
• On The Horizon
Overview
2
3
• Alicia VanOrman, PhD
– Population Reference Bureau
• Today we will explore technical questions related to data disaggregation in support of evidence-informed advocacy work
• For more info: [email protected]
Our Technical Assistance Partner
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org
By the Numbers Part II
Disaggregating Data by
Race and Ethnicity
Alicia VanOrman, Research Associate
October 6, 2016
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Today’s presentation
Methodological challenges
Classification schemes
Dealing with small numbers
Accessing data
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Percent minority* by age, 2015-2050
3840
53
4850
61
3841
55
2224
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2020 2050
Total
Ages 0-17
Ages 18-39
Ages 65+
*Includes those who are not non-Hispanic white (alone).
Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2014 U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections.
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Percent minority* by age, 2015-2050
3840
53
4850
61
3841
55
2224
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2020 2050
Total
Ages 0-17
Ages 18-39
Ages 65+
*Includes those who are not non-Hispanic white (alone).
Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2014 U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections.
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Percent minority* by age, 2015-2050
3840
53
4850
61
3841
55
2224
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2020 2050
Total
Ages 0-17
Ages 18-39
Ages 65+
*Includes those who are not non-Hispanic white (alone).
Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2014 U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections.
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Percent minority* by age, 2015-2050
3840
53
4850
61
3841
55
2224
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2020 2050
Total
Ages 0-17
Ages 18-39
Ages 65+
*Includes those who are not non-Hispanic white (alone).
Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2014 U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections.
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
What are you measuring?
Racial categories are defined by
social, economic, political
institutions
Categories change over time,
depends on social context
Ethnicity is separate from race
Refers to ancestry or heritage
Federal statistical system only
collects data on Hispanic/Non-
Hispanic ethnicity
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Guidelines for collecting data
OMB guidelines adopted in 1997
Two question format
Option to select multiple racial designations
Department of education fully implemented in 2010
Minimum
American Indian or Alaska Native
Asian
Black or African American
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
White
Hispanic or Latino (asked in a separate question)
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Guidelines for collecting data
Variation across data sources
Mutually exclusive groups (e.g., non-Hispanic Black or African
American)
Combining categories (e.g., National Survey of Children’s Health)
Coverage
Did all local entities report data in the same way (e.g., police
jurisdictions)?
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Working with small numbers
Maintaining confidentiality
Smaller populations = easier to identify an individual
Providing reliable estimates
Smaller populations = more sampling variability
Multiple options for assessing and dealing with these
challenges
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Are you working with confidential data?
Data provider may have prevented disclosure already
E.g., ACS tables, birth and death data through CDC Wonder
Check for guidelines from the data source
E.g., numerator less than 3
Assess the numerator and denominator
Compared to data source guidelines
General guidelines
Numerator/event data: 0 or >2
Denominator/population: >300, 100-300 use caution, <100 use extreme caution
Avoiding disclosure
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Assessing reliability
Reliability measure Reliability estimate
Standard error• Estimated deviation from actual population value .6
Margins of error• Maximum amount of difference between sample
estimate and actual population value
±1 percentage point
(90% confidence level)
Confidence interval• Range of values that describe the uncertainty around an
estimate
19.9%-21.8%
(90% confidence interval)
Coefficient of variation• Relative amount of sampling error
• 𝐶𝑉 =𝑆𝐸
𝑋∗ 100
3%
20.9% of children in Nevada are living in poverty.
Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2015 1-year ACS data, Table B17001
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
No hard and fast rules; depends on the application
Confidence intervals for percents
Less than 10 percentage points
Coefficients of variation
Smaller CVs (<15%) indicate greater reliability; larger CVs
(>30%) indicate unreliable data
Don’t use when proportion is close to zero
What is an acceptable amount of error?
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Options for presenting data
Reliable estimates
Present the estimate with the reliability measure
Borderline reliable estimates
Present the estimate with note to use caution
Aggregate to increase sample size
Unreliable estimates and/or disclosure risk
Aggregate to increase sample size
Suppress estimates
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
What the federal government does
National Center for Health Statistics Less than 10 events: suppress count and rate
Less than 20 events: suppress rate
National Health Interview Survey, other health surveys Relative Standard Error >30%
U.S. Census Bureau Population and geography thresholds (e.g., 65,000 for 1-year ACS estimates)
Significance tests (e.g., >half of estimates are not significantly different from 0)
Relative standard errors (median CV>61%)
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
What KIDS COUNT does
Guidelines provided by data source
Aggregate data across years
ACS: 3 and 4 year olds not enrolled in school
Data suppression
ACS confidence intervals greater than 10 percentage points
Less than 3 cases
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Aggregating data
Combine multiple years of data
5-year ACS data
Custom multiyear estimations: ACS Data User Group Webinar
Expand the geographic area
Combine smaller levels of geography into a larger group (e.g.,
combine counties to create county groups)
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Poverty rates for Latino children,
Selected years and geographies
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
United States 2014
United States 2010-2014
Maryland 2014
Maryland 2010-2014
Baltimore 2014
Baltimore 2010-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Aggregating by collapsing categories
Asian, Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaska Native,
and two or more races
17.5% ± 1.8
Asian and Pacific Islander and
American Indian/Alaska Native
12.0% ± 2.2
Asian and Pacific Islander
12.0% ± 2.4
Asian
11.8% ± 2.4
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific
Islander
18.8% ± 9.6
American Indian/Alaska
Native
12.0% ± 6.1
Two or more races
20.5% ± 2.5
Black or African American
35.6% ± 1.3
Non-Hispanic White
14.5% ± .7
Hispanic
28.2% ± 1.1
Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2015 1-year ACS data, Table C17001 series
Percent of children in poverty by race and ethnicity, Florida, 2015
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Aggregating data
Technical considerations
Microdata is more flexible
Use aggregate numerators and aggregate denominators for rates
𝑃𝑦1 + 𝑃𝑦2 + 𝑃𝑦3
3≠
𝑁𝑦1 + 𝑁𝑦2 + 𝑁𝑦3𝐷𝑦1 + 𝐷𝑦2 + 𝐷𝑦3
Standard errors/margins of error ACS Accuracy of Data Documentation
ACS Data User Group Webinar
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Aggregating data
Conceptual considerations
Tradeoffs between data that is less current, has less geographic
detail or less sub-group specificity
Best option will vary based on goals and data availability
Some data is better than no data
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Accessing data
ACS collects detailed race
and ethnicity data
Alone: a single race
Alone or in combination: a
single race and those who
designated multiple races
White alone: does not
consider the question
about Hispanic origin
White, non-Hispanic or
Latino: White only and not
Hispanic
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
Basic counts for total population by detailed racial and
ethnic groups (alone)
(there are also tables by alone and in combination)
1-year ACS Table 5-year ACS Table
Asian B02015 B02006
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific
Islander
B02016 B02007
American Indian or Alaska Native B02014 B02005
Hispanic or Latino B03001 B03001
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Social and economic characteristics by detailed race
and ethnicity
Very little data available
Selected Population Profiles: 1-year data only
Advanced Search -> Race and Ethnic Groups -> Detailed groups
-> All available races
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
American FactFinder
detailed and subject tables
by race and ethnicity
Identified with a letter after
the table number B17001B: Poverty Status, Black or
African American Alone
Categories available: White
Black or African American
American Indian and Alaska Native
Asian
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander
Other races
Two or more races
White, not Hispanic or Latino
Hispanic or Latino
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Table identifier on
American FactFinder
Category on KIDS COUNT Data Center
C American Indian
D + E Asian and Pacific Islander
B Black or African American
I Hispanic or Latino
H Non-Hispanic White
G Two or more races
Add tables together
using aggregation
methods previously
discussed
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
List of all tables disaggregated by race and ethnicity Advanced Search -> Race and Ethnic Groups -> Basic Groups
-> Select group of interest
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Accessing Data by Race and Ethnicity:
American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Counts for selected tribal groupings B02014 (AIAN alone): 1-year data, US and very few states
B02017 (AIAN alone or in combination): 1-year data, few states
B02005 (AIAN alone): 5-year data, all states
Social and economic characteristics by tribe Selected Population Profiles, 1-year data only, US and few states
By state: 2006-2010 Data Profiles 2, 3, and 4
American Indian Area/Alaska Native Area/Native
Hawaiian Home lands 5-year data: 693 areas available
1-year data: 12 areas available
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Public Use Micro Sample Data (PUMS)
Flexible, custom tabulations
Geographic data is limited
Need statistical software (e.g., SAS)
Calculating margins of error can be technical See PUMS Accuracy of Data document
Download data files on AFF or Census website
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: American Community Survey
PUMS via IPUMS
Custom tabulations, 1-year and 5-
year ACS data Recode and create variables
Some effort to make race and ethnicity
categories match those in KIDS COUNT
Produces standard errors
Download microdata Need statistical software (e.g., SAS)
Multiple years of data at once, data are
harmonized
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
CDC Wonder
Births
Deaths
Data by state and by
county Publically available birth data
limited to counties larger than
100,000
Suppressions rules have
already been applied
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: Vital Statistics
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Civil Rights Data Collection
Data pre-tabulated by state
Data available at school district
and school levels Use the data analysis tools to compare
multiple schools or districts
Can request a data file to use with
statistical software to analysis all
districts or schools at once
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: Education-related data
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
National Center for Education
Statistics and Ed Data
Express
State-level data
Accessing data by race and ethnicity: Education-related data
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Looking ahead
Combining two-question format into one question
Middle Eastern or North African (MENA) category
2020 Census & 2019 ACS 2015 National Content Test
Office of Management and Budget Seeking review and comments on possible changes
Federalregister.gov for more information
© 2016 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
For more information
Alicia VanOrman
202-939-5474
41
Questions?
42
• Availability of recorded content for future reference
• The discussion continues at the KIDS COUNT Institute and through future webinars co-hosted with our state partners.
On The Horizon
Developing solutions to build a brighter future for children, families and communities
www.aecf.org