by : mr. per wistoft dubai, 9 th march 2011 the vlcc - only dead fish swim with the stream

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Gulf Navigation Holding PJSC By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

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Page 1: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

By : Mr. Per Wistoft

Dubai, 9th March 2011

The VLCC -Only Dead Fish Swim With the

Stream

Page 2: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

VLCC’S - ONLY DEAD FISH SWIMS WITH THE STREAM

Page 3: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

Typical dimensions :

LOA 330 Meters .

Beam 60 Meters.

Draft 20 Meters.

Cargo 2 Mill barrels.

Pumping 16.000 m 2 per Hour

THE VLCC IS THE WORK HORSE OF THE WORLD’S OIL CONSUMPTION

AND WITHOUT THESE VESSELS THE WORLD WOULD NOT FUNCTION.

Page 4: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

THE VLCC IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY

GDP Growth(%)

2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f

USA 2.1 0.0 - 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.0

EURO - ZONE 2.7 0.5 - 4.1 1.7 1.5 1.8

JAPAN 2.3 - 1.2 - 5.2 2.8 1.5 2.0

CHINA 13.0 9.6 9.1 10.5 9.6 9.5

INDIA 9.4 6.4 5.7 9.7 8.4 8.0

BRAZIL 6.1 5.1 -0.2 7.5 4.1 4.1

RUSSIA 8.5 5.2 - 7.9 4.0 4.3 4.4

WORLD 5.3 2.8 - 0.6 4.8 4.2 4.5

Source: IMF

Page 5: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

AND ALONG WITH A STEADY WORLD GDP GROWTH COMES AN INCREASED NEED FOR OIL

Oil Demand (million barrels per day) 2009 2010F 2011F ANNUAL CHANGE (%)

2009 2010E 2011F

North AMERICA EUROPEPACIFIC

23.3014.497.66

23.8514.377.72

23.8714.287.57

- 3.6%- 5.7%- 4.7%

2.4%-0.8%0.8%

0.1%-0.6%-1.9%

TOTAL OECD 45.45 45.95 45.72 - 4.5% 1.1% -0.5%

CHINAOTHER ASIAMIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICAFSUAFRICAEUROPE

8.3710.007.236.004.003.190.74

9.2510.277.506.304.243.230.71

9.7010.567.856.524.353.350.72

8.0%4.0%3.1%0.0%

- 5.4%- 0.0%- 2.6%

10.5%2.7%3.7%5.0%6.0%1.3%-4.1%

4.9%2.8%4.7%3.5%2.6%3.7%1.4%

TOTAL NON – OECD 39.53 41.50 43.05 2.5% 5.0% 3.7%

WORLD 84.98 87.45 88.77 -1.3% 2.9% 1.5%

Source: IEA

Page 6: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

THIS DEMAND IS ESPECIALLY STRONG IN CHINA

WITH AN ALMOST 50% INCREASE FROM 2010 - 2020

Page 7: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

ADDING UP ALL THE FORECASTED NUMBERS AND TRYING TO PUT THEM ON A WORLD MAP

Page 8: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

AND AGAIN CONVERTING THESE NUMBERS INTO ACTUAL REQUIREMENTS FOR VLCC’S

Page 9: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

WILL GIVE A SOLID NUMBER OF

156

NEW VLCC’S NEEDED BY 2013

Page 10: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

SO WHERE ARE WE GOING TO FIND ALL THESE VESSELS?

Source: MJLF & Associates

177

Page 11: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

PLENTY OF VESSELS ARE ALREADY ON ORDER BUT THE PHASE OUT IS NOT YET OVER

SO, MAYBE THERE WILL NOT BE PLENTY OF VESSELS AVAILABLE…Source: MJLF & Associates

136

No . Of Vessels

2011 2012 2013

New building (A)

84 54 34

Phase-out(B)

26 16 4

Net Increase(A) – (B)

58 38 30

Page 12: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

WILL GIVE A SOLID NUMBER OF

156

NEW VLCC’S NEEDED BY 2013

Page 13: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

BUT THEN, WE BETTER HURRY UP AND BUILD SOME MORE BECAUSE THEY ARE BECOMING CHEAPER AND CHEAPER

Source: MJLF & Associates

Page 14: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

OR ARE THEY ?

Source: MJLF & Associates

Page 15: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

This presentation has been solely prepared by Gulf Navigation Holding PJSC “GNH” and contains subject to change and update informationThe distribution of this presentation and disclaimer in jurisdictions outside UAE may be restricted by law and any such restrictions should be observed. This presentation does not take into account your individual investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You must not act on the basis of any matter contained in This presentation, including the information contained in this disclaimer, is not a prospectus under UAE law and does not constitute an offer or invitation to issue or sell, or recommendation to subscribe for or purchase any security and neither the presentation, disclaimer nor anything contained in them forms the basis of any contract or commitment other than in respect of the obligations of parties who agree to accept firm allocations. To the maximum extent permitted by law, GNH and its related bodies corporate, directors, employees or agents, nor any other person, accepts any liability, including, without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence, for any loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it. Ships and personnel photographs and schematic drawings contained in this presentation are copyrighted and owned by GNH CompanyOther photographs and schematic drawings contained in this presentation do not depict assets or equipment owned or used by GNH Company or activities of GNH .Companies unless otherwise indicated. Diagrams used in the presentation are illustrative only. Unless otherwise stated, all data in the document are based on currently available information. The information contained in this presentation has been prepared as at 3 March 2011. The delivery of this presentation after that date does not imply, and should not be relied on as a representation or warranty, that there has been no change since that date in the affairs or financial condition of GNH, or that the information contained in this presentation remains correct at, or at any time after, that date.

Page 16: By : Mr. Per Wistoft Dubai, 9 th March 2011 The VLCC - Only Dead Fish Swim With the Stream

- Thank you -

The VLCC -Only Dead Fish Swim With the

Stream