by marlène hassine konqui, head of etf research and kristo … money monitor decem… · saw in...
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1For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Informed Investor: Money Monitor January 2019
By Marlène Hassine Konqui, Head of ETF Research and Kristo Durbaku, ETF Research Analyst
€1.4bn-€208m
Commodities still suffering
Flows surged into Smart Beta
Net new assets in the European ETF market tripled to €7.6bn in January from the €2.5bn we saw in December. Equity flows rebounded (€1.6bn from -€1.5bn) led by strong inflows into emerging markets equities (€2.4bn). In contrast, their developed market counterparts suffered a poor start due to some significant outflows (-€2bn) from US equities.
Having lagged way behind equities in 2018, fixed income ETFs enjoyed their best month ever (€6.2bn), led by developed and emerging market government bonds (€2.2bn and €2.4bn respectively). Smart Beta ETFs also enjoyed a largely positive month with net new assets of €1.4bn, but commodity flows continued their seemingly endless decline.
A happy new year for European ETFs
ETF flows tripled to €7.6bn from €2.5bn
Strong start to the year for the European ETF market €7.6bn
What happened last month?
Record month for fixed income
€1.6bn €6.2bn
Rebound for equities
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2019 to 31/01/2019 Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.Note: This report is based on the data available on 01/01/2018. Asset and flow data may be slightly adjusted as additional data becomes available.
2For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
What were the major trends?
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2019 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
What were the major trends?
Monthly net inflows on European Equity ETFs
Monthly net inflows on European Fixed Income ETFs
Modest rebound for equities
Record month for fixed income €6.2bn
€1.6bn
2,198Developed
Market Govies
1,505of wh. Europe
Govies
2,380Emerging MarketGovies
135High Yield
-8Money Market
304Inflation Linked
625Coprporate
Bonds423
of wh. US Govies
-1,288Developed
Market Equities -2,010
of wh. US Equities -850 of wh. Europe
Equities
2,424Emerging Market
Equities
499Global Equities
408 of wh. World Equities
594of wh. Asia Pacific
Equities
Major decline in US equity flows
Europe equities still suffering
Emerging equities again enjoy strong inflows
Outflows from Japan equities stalled
Corporate bond flows rebound
Another strong month for euro government bonds
Outflows from inflation-linked bonds stemmed
Flows into emerging govies doubled
3For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Investors turn defensiveInvestors continued to reinforce their defensive positioning in January after all of the equity market volatility we saw in Q4. This helped to sustain inflows into some Smart Beta strategies. Net new assets of €1.4bn – split between developed (€1bn) and emerging (€400m) markets – amounted to the second-best month over one year.
Quality strategies and income-generating ETFs led the way and reached a record high of €1bn. Nearly all of these flows were concentrated in developed markets. Europe took the lion’s share with €451m of inflows – another new record. This is all the more remarkable given traditional European equities
suffered outflows of €1.3bn. Attractive equity valuations kept investors interested and invested, despite the significant economic uncertainty.
Investment into other defensive strategies were also significant. Minimum volatility and low volatility factor strategies gathered inflows of €496m – albeit those flows were mainly concentrated in the emerging markets (€340m).
Ultimately, we expect this renewed interest in Smart Beta to endure for some months given significant political and economic uncertainties and improvements in the credit markets.
Special focus
Source: Monthly data from 01/01/2016 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor Cross Asset Research, Lyxor ETF. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
European Quality ETF monthly flows vs. euro investment-grade corporate bond index*
Defensive Smart Beta ETF flows vs. 60-day historical volatility*
0
500
400
300
200
100
-100
-200
218
223
222
221
220
219
217
216Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Europe Quality ETF flows (lhs) Markit Euro IG corporate bond index (rhs)
Improving credit market should support Quality ETF flows in Europe
in €M
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
32
27
22
17
12
7
2
-3
-8
Mar-201
6May
2016
Jul-20
16Se
p-2016
Nov-201
6Jan
-2017
Mar-201
7May
2017
Jul-20
17Se
p-2017
Nov-201
7Jan
-2018
Mar-201
8May
2018
Jul-20
18Se
p-2018
Nov-201
8Jan
-2019
Increasing volatility should defensive smart beta strategy flows
Defensive Smart beta ETF flows (lhs)
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
60d historical volatility SX5E (rhs)
in €M
in %
€1.4bnNear-record inflows
*including income generation and Quality factor strategies flows.Source: Lyxor ETF, Bloomberg data from 01/01/2018 to 31/01/2019.
*including min volatility and low vol /low beta factor strategy flows.Source: Lyxor ETF, Bloomberg data from 01/01/2016 to 31/01/2019.
4For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
What does it all mean?
Explore our online analytics toolswww.lyxoretf.co.uk/en/instit/etfresearch/type/monthly-flows
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Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2019 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
Find out whether the money is going to the right place with our Manager Monitor
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Best start ever for fixed income ETFs
Commodity ETFs started 2019 as they finished 2018
– in the red
YTD net Inflows on European ETFs by asset class
€7.6bn
Total AUM is up 6.7% since 2018ETFs on the rise
€675bn
A happy new year for ETFs
Total Equities
1,635
Developed Market Equities
-1,288 of wh. US Equities
-2,010
594of wh.
Asia PacificEquities
-850of wh. Europe Equities
625Corporate
bonds 135High Yield
of wh. World
Equities
408
Emerging Market Equities
2,424
Global Equities
499
Total Fixed
Income
6,156
DevelopedMarketGovies
2,198 of wh. Europe Govies
1,505
304Inflation Linked
of wh.US Govies
423
Emerging Market Govies
2,380
-8Money Market
-208Commodities
Weak start for equity ETFs
5For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Appendix: The month in numbersTotal
Equity Equity Emerging MarketWeak start for equities Cumulated monthly NNA on equity ETFs
Fixed income CommoditiesAll-time record for fixed income flows Cumulated monthly NNA on fixed income ETFs
European ETFs in January 2019 Net Inflows (EURm)NNA tripled to €7.6bn from €2.4bn Monthly NNA on European ETFs
Decent start to a year for European ETFs Cumulated monthly NNA on European ETFs
Best start ever for emerging market equities Cumulated monthly NNA on emerging market equity ETFs
Commodity ETFs started 2019 as they closed 2018, in the red Cumulated monthly NNA on commodity ETFs
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 9,0008,0006,000 7,000
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Nov-2018
Jan-2019
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
Fev-2018 7,870
1,332
6711,152
794
4,258
2,293
5,849
753
4,037
2,375
7,587 2016 2017 2018 2019
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-10,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000 2016 2017 2018 2019
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018 2019
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
-2,000
2,000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018 2019
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018 2019
3,000
3,500
2,500
2,000
-1,000
-500
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2016 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
6For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Fixed IncomeBest month ever for fixed income ETFs (€6.2bn) Monthly NNA on fixed income ETFs
CommoditiesCommodity ETFs continue to suffer outflows Monthly NNA on commodity ETFs
EquityEquity ETF flows rebounded Monthly NNA on equity ETFs
EM equity ETFs outdo developed peers Monthly NNA on developed vs. emerging markets equity ETFs
DM bonds outdo EM peers again Monthly NNA on developed vs. emerging markets fixed income ETFs
...mainly due to broad commodity ETFs Monthly NNA on broad & precious metals ETFs
0
-2,000
-1,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
5,000
4,000
6,000
7,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
0
200
400
800
600
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000 Developed Market Emerging Market
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-1,000
0
800
600
400
200
-600
-800
-200
-400
1,000 Broad Commodities Precious Metals
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000 Developed Market Emerging Market
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Overview by asset class
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/02/2018 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
0
-2,000
-1,000
6,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1,000
7,000
5,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
7For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Negative trend for Spanish and Italian equities Monthly NNA on peripheral Europe equity ETFs
Eurozone equity ETFs flows decline sharply Monthly NNA on Eurozone equity ETFs
European EquitiesAnother poor month for European equity ETFs Monthly NNA on European equity ETFs
German equity ETFs flows turn for the worse Monthly NNA on German equity ETFs
Developed Europe equities flows collapse again Monthly NNA on developed Europe region equity ETFs
Outflows from financials ETFs accelerate Monthly NNA on financials Europe equity ETFs
Equities
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/02/2018 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
-5,000
-2,000
-3,000
-1,000
0
-4,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-100
-200
-300
-500
-400
0
100
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-600
-400
-200
0
400
200
800
600
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
4,000
2,000
1,000
3,000
0
-2,000
-1,000
-3,000
-4,000Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
0
500
-500
1,000
-1,000
-1,500
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
0
500
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
1,000
-2,500
-3,000
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
8For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
A second strong month for emerging markets equities Monthly NNA on emerging market equity ETFs
Smart beta ETFs flows turn largely positive Monthly NNA on smart beta ETFs
US & Japan equities
Emerging market equities
Smart Beta / Value
US equity ETFs suffer more outflows Monthly NNA on US equity ETFs
Japan equity ETFs flows rebound Monthly NNA on Japan equity ETFs
Broad EM equities enjoyed another strong month Monthly NNA on broad EM equity ETFs
Little to no interest in Value Monthly net new assets on value style equity ETFs
Equities (cont’d)
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/02/2018 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
-3,000
-1,000
-2,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
0
1,000
-1,000
-2,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
0
500
1,000
-500
-1,000
2,000
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-500
0
500
1,000
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-1,500
500
0
-1,000
-500
1,000
2,000
1,500
2,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
400
200
-200
-400
-600
-800
0
-1,000Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
9For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Inflation-linked bond flows turn positive Monthly NNA on inflation-linked bonds ETFs
IG bonds outdo HY peers Monthly NNA on investment grade & high yield bond ETFs
European Govies US Govies
Inflation Linked EM debt
Credit Market Short-bond strategy
EU government bond ETFs continue to enjoy massive inflows Monthly NNA on EU government bond ETFs
8th consecutive positive month for US treasuries Monthly NNA on US government bond ETFs
Emerging debt ETFs flows strengthen sharply Monthly NNA on emerging market debt ETFs
Little interest in short bonds strategies Monthly NNA on short bond strategy ETFs
Fixed Income
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/02/2018 to 31/01/2019, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
-500
-300
-400
-200
-100
0
400
300
200
100
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Investment Grade High Yields
0
-1,500
-1,000
-500
500
1,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-400
400
200
0
-200
600
1,000
800
1,200
-1,000
0
-500
500
1,500
2,000
1,000
3,000
2,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
-500
-300
-400
-200
-100
0
100
200
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
0
500
1,000
-500
-1,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
10For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Contact [email protected] | +33 (0)1 42 13 59 56
Marlène Hassine KonquiHead of ETF Research+33 1 42 13 59 [email protected]
Kristo DurbakuETF Research Analyst+33 1 57 29 25 [email protected]
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This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Contact [email protected] | +33 (0)1 42 13 59 56