by marlène hassine konqui, head of etf research and kristo ... etf... · decent year for equity...
TRANSCRIPT
1For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Informed Investor: Money Monitor December 2018
By Marlène Hassine Konqui, Head of ETF Research and Kristo Durbaku, ETF Research Analyst
-€192m-€391m
Commodities still suffering
Smart Beta inflows retreat
Net new assets in the European ETF market slowed to €2.5bn in December – well down from the €4bn we saw in November. Equities flows collapsed (-€1.4bn), with US equities recording their first negative month (-€1.7bn) after 19 consecutive months of positive flows and Europe equities still suffering outflows (-€1.5bn). However, emerging equities enjoyed their best month ever (+€2.8bn) and fixed income ETF inflows more than doubled, led by developed and emerging market government bonds (€3.4bn and €1.4bn respectively). Commodities continued their descent.
European ETFs flows decelerate
ETF flows slowed to €2.5bn from €4bn
2018 flows now stand at €45bn €2.5bn
What happened last month?
Fixed income flows surged
-€1.4bn €4.3bn
Equity flows collapsed
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/12/2018 to 31/12/2018 Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.Note: This report is based on the data available on 01/12/2018. Asset and flow data may be slightly adjusted as additional data becomes available.
2For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
What were the major trends?
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/12/2018 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
What were the major trends?
Monthly net inflows on European Equity ETFs
Monthly net inflows on European Fixed Income ETFs
Equity flows collapsed
Fixed income flows surged €4.3bn
-€1.4bn
3,409Developed
Market Govies
2,178of wh. Europe
Govies
1,059Emerging MarketGovies
-41High Yield
191Money Market
-459Inflation Linked
-227Coprporate
Bonds
1,048of wh. US
Govies
-4,329Developed
Market Equities
-1,755 of wh. US Equities
-1,481 of wh. Europe
Equities
2,826Emerging Market
Equities
139Global Equities
-28 of wh. World Equities-732
of wh. Asia Pacific Equities
US equities rally stop abruptly
Europe equity still suffering
Emerging equities enjoyed their best month ever
US treasury flows accelerated
Euro government bond flows doubled again
Inflation-linked bonds suffered more outflows
Flows surged into emerging govies
3For professional clients only*
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Emerging equity ETFs enjoyed their best month everIn December 2018, emerging market ETFs benefited from low US interest rates, which brought record inflows into all emerging market economies. Before this, emerging markets had suffered particularly from the intensifying trade war between the US and China. The risk is likely to remain in the short term but should
decrease in the medium term as current tight economic conditions are expected to ease later in 2019. This could lead to a new ongoing positive trend for EM ETF flows, especially given the historical correlation that has been observed between emerging market ETF flows and the US10-year yield (see graph).
Special focus
Source: Monthly data from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor Cross Asset Research, Lyxor ETF. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results..
Emerging equity ETFs monthly flows vs. US 10Y yield
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000EM Equity ETF NNA (rhs)
10y U
S Tr
easu
rity in
%
EM eq
uity N
NA (E
URM)
US 10 year interest rates (Ihs)
Jan-2012
Jul-2012
Jan-2013
Jul-2013
Jan-2014
Jul-2014
Jan-2015
Jul-2015
Jan-2016
Jul-2016
Jan-2017
Jul-2017
Jan-2018
Jan-2019
Jul-2018
€2.8bnRecord inflows
Less tight financial conditions in the US expected for 2019 should support flows into emerging markets equity ETFs
Tighter financial conditions in the US with the taper tantrum in 2013 trigerred strong outflows from EM equities
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What does it all mean?
Explore our online analytics toolswww.lyxoretf.co.uk/en/instit/etfresearch/type/monthly-flows
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Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
Find out whether the money is going to the right place with our Manager Monitor
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Weak year for fixed income ETFs
Commodity ETFs ended 2018 in
the red
YTD net Inflows on European ETFs by asset class
€45bn
Total AUM is down 0,4% since 2017ETFs on the rise
€633bn
A moderately successful year – in line with long-term average
Total Equities
30,187
Developed Market Equities
21,426 of wh. US Equities
18,698
-2,031of wh.
Asia PacificEquities
-3,442of wh. Europe Equities
-1,564Corporate
bonds
-731High Yield
of wh. World
Equities7,189
Emerging Market Equities
6,010Global
Equities
2,751
Total Fixed
Income
15,110 DevelopedMarketGovies
12,127
of wh. Europe Govies
5,465
130Inflation Linked
of wh.US Govies
5,567 Emerging Market Govies
2,737 598Money Market
-403Commodities
Decent year for Equity ETFs
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Appendix: The month in numbersTotal
Equity Equity Emerging MarketDecent year for equity ETFs (€30.2bn) Cumulated monthly NNA on equity ETFs
Fixed income CommoditiesWeak year for fixed income flows Cumulated monthly NNA on fixed income ETFs
European ETFs in December 2018 Net Inflows (EURm)NNA dropped to €2.5bn from €4bn in december Monthly NNA on European ETFs
Moderately successful year for European ETFs Cumulated monthly NNA on European ETFs
Good year for emerging markets equity ETF flows despite fluctuations Cumulated monthly NNA on emerging market equity ETFs
Worst ever year for commodity ETFs Cumulated monthly NNA on commodity ETFs
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 16,00012,000 14,000
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Nov-2018
Jan-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
Fev-2018
13,575
7,871
1,331671
1,140
794
4,258
2,293
5,849
753
4,037
2,479 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-10,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018
-4,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
-2,000
2,000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018
3,000
3,500
2,500
2,000
-500
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2015 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
6For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Fixed IncomeBest month of the year for fixed income ETFs (€4.3bn inflows) Monthly NNA on fixed income ETFs
CommoditiesFlows into commodity ETFs collapse again Monthly NNA on commodity ETFs
EquityEquity ETFs flows turn negative Monthly NNA on equity ETFs
EM equity ETFs outdo developed peers Monthly NNA on developed vs. emerging markets equity ETFs
DM bonds outdo EM peers again Monthly NNA on developed vs. emerging markets fixed income ETFs
...mainly due to broad commodity ETFs Monthly NNA on broad & precious metals ETFs
0
2,000
-2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
0
200
400
800
600
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000 Developed Market Emerging Market
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-1,000
0
800
600
400
200
-600
-800
-200
-400
1,000 Broad Commodities Precious Metals
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000 Developed Market Emerging Market
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
Overview by asset class
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
0
-1,000
4,000
2,000
3,000
1,000
5,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
7For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Peripheral Europe equity ETFs rebound wasn’t confirmed Monthly NNA on peripheral Europe equity ETFs
Virtually a flat month for Eurozone equity ETFs Monthly NNA on Eurozone equity ETFs
European EquitiesFlows on European equity ETFs collapse again Monthly NNA on European equity ETFs
5th consecutive positive month for German equity ETFs Monthly NNA on German equity ETFs
Little interest on developed Europe equities Monthly NNA on developed Europe region equity ETFs
Financial Europe equity ETFs plummeted Monthly NNA on financials Europe equity ETFs
Equities
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
-5,000
-2,000
-3,000
-1,000
0
-4,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-100
-200
-300
-500
-400
0
100
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-600
-400
-200
0
400
200
800
600
1,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
4,000
2,000
1,000
3,000
0
-2,000
-1,000
-3,000
-4,000Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
0
500
-500
1,000
-1,000
-1,500
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
0
1,000
-1,000
2,000
-2,000
-3,000
3,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
8For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Best month of the year for emerging market equity ETFs Monthly NNA on emerging market equity ETFs
Smart beta ETF flows turn negative after best month ever Monthly NNA on smart beta ETFs
US & Japan equities
Emerging market equities
Smart Beta / Value
US equity ETFs turn largely negative after 19 positive months Monthly NNA on US equity ETFs
Japan equity ETFs collapse again Monthly NNA on Japan equity ETFs
Broad EM equity ETFs enjoyed their best month ever Monthly NNA on broad EM equity ETFs
Value style equity ETFs decline sharply Monthly net new assets on value style equity ETFs
Equities (cont’d)
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
-2,000
1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
0
1,000
-1,000
-2,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
0
500
1,000
-500
-1,000
2,000
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-500
0
500
1,000
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
1,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-1,500
500
0
-1,000
-500
1,000
2,000
1,500
2,500
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
400
200
-200
-400
-600
-800
0
-1,000Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
9For professional clients only*
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Inflation-linked bond flows remain negative Monthly NNA on inflation-linked bonds ETFs
HY outflows nearly stopped while IG counterparts turned negative Monthly NNA on investment grade & high yield bond ETFs
European Govies US Govies
Inflation Linked EM debt
Credit Market Short-bond strategy
Best month of the year for EU government bond ETFs (€2.2bn)Monthly NNA on EU government bond ETFs
…and for US treasuries (€1bn) Monthly NNA on US government bond ETFs
Significant inflows into emerging market debt Monthly NNA on emerging market debt ETFs
Short bond strategies rebound wasn’t confirmed Monthly NNA on short bond strategy ETFs
Fixed Income
Source: Monthly data in EURM from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2018, Bloomberg, Lyxor. The figures relating to past performances refer to past periods and are not a reliable indicator for future results.
-600
-400
-200
0
800
600
400
200
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
Investment Grade High Yields
0
-1,500
-1,000
-500
500
1,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-600
-400
400
200
0
-200
600
1,000
800
1,200
-1,000
0
-500
500
1,500
1,000
2,000
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
-500
-300
-400
-200
-100
0
100
200
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2018
0
500
1,000
-500
-1,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
10For professional clients only*
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
Contact [email protected] | +33 (0)1 42 13 59 56
Marlène Hassine KonquiHead of ETF Research+33 1 42 13 59 [email protected]
Kristo DurbakuETF Research Analyst+33 1 57 29 25 [email protected]
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This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of markets in financial instruments directive 2004/39/ce.
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