by j. fernandez villaverde, j. greenwood and n. guner discussion by: alessandra fogli from shame to...
TRANSCRIPT
by J. Fernandez Villaverde, J. Greenwood and N. Guner
Discussion by:
Alessandra Fogli
From Shame to Game in One Hundred Years: An Economic Model of the Rise in Premarital Sex
Minneapolis, November 2009
Two objectives
Provide a quantitative model of the large change in sexual behavior and out of wedlock birth of the last century.
Argue that technology drives culture
The first objective
Rise in premarital sex of teens over the century Rise and then decrease of out of wedlock birth Cross sectional facts: poor versus rich
Hypothesis:
These changes are driven by technology, i.e. better contraception
The model in a nutshell
One decision: to have premarital sex or not
fraction having sex
out of wedlock births
If sex becomes safer ( )
Th t)1( Fh ~
)1)((/ SSSB ttttt
SB
TFS
ttt
tt
)1(
))1((1
t
Need assumptions on σ (elasticity of F). Assume hhF )(
Key findings: time series
Main results can be obtained without socialization
Both models (with and without socialization) have problems generating large increase in sex and owb (sexual revolution)
Results crucially hinges on the shape of the distribution of joy of sex. This is unobservable. Some empirical work would be useful to impose discipline.
In the model owb are sex times failure rate. In the data fewer out of wedlock births (shotgun marriages? Akerlof, Yellen and Katz, QJE1996)
Results from the simple model
The expected cost for rich decreases more (larger T), larger increment in sexNegative effect of safety larger for poor who had more owb to start with
Technology only drive
A change in technology can explain the facts Culture lags and is driven by technology
Deeper message of the paper:
Technology is everything. No independent role of culture
Has culture been given a fair shot?
Empirically: argue that attitudes lag behavior
Average attitudes always lag when change first happens in younger cohorts.
This would also happen had young cohorts changed their behavior for cultural reasons (rock music).
Has culture been given a fair shot?
Theoretically: model the role of parents’ socialization
Parents are not altruistic, they have their “own agenda”
The expected cost from sex:
Now let the cost be :
π is a function of culture T can be also a function of culture
))()((*)1( TS
T*)1(
What is technology in the model?
In the model, technology is captured by failure rate, π
product of adoption decision (λ) and rate of effectiveness (δ)
changes in λ are NOT exogenous changes in technology but endogenous changes in behavior.
Technology driven by culture?
Changes in adoption rates and differences across groups may be explained by evolution of preferences and beliefs:
Women face uncertainty when making adoption decisions and form beliefs on expected benefits and costs.
diffusion of information over time and across groups and/or coordination motives can generate persistent differences.
But this is Culture!
Unexplored roles for culture
Can T (the cost of owb) be changing over time ? Can it be culturally determined (independent from π) ?
Change in illegitimacy laws changes cost on the child
Coordination motives: can lead to large change in behavior in response to small shocks (rock music?)
Value of virginity in marriage market