UNSD SNA SEMINAR 3 – 5TH FEBRUARY, 2014EXTENT TO WHICH PRESENT SCOPE, DETAIL AND

QUALITY OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF SAINT LUCIA MEET PRESENT POLICY DEMANDS

By Edwin St Catherine, Director of Statistics, SAINT LUCIA

POLICY USES OF GDP AND THE LIMITATIONS OF THE CURRENT SCOPE What is produced?

GDP by Major Economic Sector using Production approach in Nominal and Basic Prices Major release before the annual budget to facilitate policy briefs by economist and the

publication of the economic review. Preliminary estimates for previous year GDP and updates to previous annual GDP estimates.

Important to the computation of Debt to GDP ratio which is usually a topic of intense focus by policy makers

GDP by Expenditure is usually release later Statistics related to the GDP are also release to facilitate the budget discussions

Currently we are assisting the Ministry of Finance produce an updated estimate of the GDP using the production approach

Developed using deflators and main indicators by Industrial Sector

POLICY USES OF GDP AND THE LIMITATIONS OF THE CURRENT SCOPE Preliminary GDP based on Production approach is very visible since it is

produce within 2-3 months of the year to which it pertains Sectoral Breakdowns come under much scrutiny in terms of how they trend

versus related economic statistics Stay over arrivals versus in growth in hotels and restaurants sector of the GDP Average Length of Stay Number of bednights by international versus regional stay over tourist The contribution of the Cruise ships to Hotel and Restaurants GDP

Similar Discussions for other sectors Focus on the Growth generating and Foreign exchange earning sectors,

Tourism, Construction, Agriculture Focus the employment generating sectors

POLICY USES OF GDP AND THE LIMITATIONS OF THE CURRENT SCOPE Main Limits:

Scope of the tourism sector, how is it defined, what sectors it contains, what is its impact Supply and Use (demand) by Sector Table available only for 2002 and an updated SUT is

needed Main Issue is no Tourism Satellite Account produced from Supply and Use Table Environmental Economic Accounts Satellite Account on Culture

Support from Government of Argentina Evaluation of the Anuual Jazz Festival and Carnival

– Preliminary assessment working with Min of Tourism No Quarterly GDP available, total reliance on Annual GDP by Sector

Completion of work on Quarterly GDP, Process still needs to be finalized with the assistance of CARTAC Will benefit tremendously since we have started to receive data on Sales By Firm from the VAT office

and we expect the same from the Corporate tax section of the IRD

POLICY USES OF GDP STATISTICS AND CONNECTIONS TO OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTICS – LABOUR STATISTICS Quarterly and Annualized Labour Force Survey Statistics

Labour Market Statistics – Industrial Classification of the Employed Labour Force by ISIC R4 Unemployment Statistics(Micro) and GDP (Macro)

Production of Productivity Statistics Growth rate of GDP (factor cost/constant prices) per person employed* by Economic

Activity (ISIC 1st Digit) Real GDP By Economic Activity Sector Full-Time Equivalent employed persons calculated using the actual hours worked

annually by Economic activity Sector

POLICY USES OF GDP STATISTICS AND CONNECTIONS TO OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTICS – LABOUR STATISTICS Quarterly and Annualized Labour Force Survey Statistics Relation to GDP

Average Rent Paid by Type of Dwelling – Rental Index Generated within the CPI and used as a deflator for Real Estate Sector of the GDP Urban and Rural CPI Breakdown

Private households with Employed Persons Value added supplied to households by individuals,

Domestic help etc

POLICY USES OF GDP STATISTICS AND CONNECTIONS TO OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTICS – TRADE, BOP AND FINANCIAL STATISTICS Level of Trade Flows by Broad Economic Classification

Imports of Construction Materials Vs GDP of Construction Sector

Imports of Consumer Goods Vs Wholesale and Retail GDP

Use of the Public Sector Financial Statistics to measure the Debt to GDP Debt - National, Central Government, Quasi-Government (Which Ratio?)

Public Sector Financial Statistics - GDP of Public Sector Monetary and BOP Statistics – Hotels and Restaurants GDP and External

Sector in the GDP

POLICY USES OF GDP STATISTICS AND CONNECTIONS TO OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTICS – CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AND PRICES (CPI/PPI/PPP)

Household expenditure survey 2006 used classifications for budget items that are distinct from standard product classification

COICOP for HES with extensions for additional item detail

Modified CPC 1.0 for SUT 2002 with a correspondence table to map CPC into COICOP

Issue: HBS extends the COICOP in order to classify products and services

Result: COICOP extensions at 5, 6, or 7 digit level are not common internationally except with ICP these extensions are available now at the regional level

POLICY USES OF GDP STATISTICS AND CONNECTIONS TO OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTICS – CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE AND PRICES

MDGs – GDP per Capital expressed in PPP terms GDP per capita (2005 PPP $) Sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product

taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products, expressed in international dollars using purchasing power parity rates and divided by total population during the same period. Source: World Bank (2012a). "World Development Indicators 2012." Washington, D.C.: World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org. Accessed April, 2012. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators Data in the tables are those available to the Human Development Report Office as of 15 October 2012, unless otherwise specified. GDP Population Purchasing Power Parity (ICP completed and to be released by April for the 2011 round)

POLICY USES OF GDP STATISTICS AND CONNECTIONS TO OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTICS – CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS GDP (ISIC 3 transitioning to ISIC 4)

SUT (CPC) TSA (CPC)

Labour Statistics (ISIC Rev 4) CPI and HBS (COICOP) Trade (BEC relation to SITC Rev 4 relation to CPC, CPC relation to ISIC etc) Balance of Payments (EBOP relation to CPC) Monetary and Financial Statistcs