by barrett n. rock complex systems research center university of new hampshire [email protected]...
TRANSCRIPT
ByBy
Barrett N. RockBarrett N. Rock
Complex Systems Research Center Complex Systems Research Center University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire
[email protected]@unh.edu
Educating the Public About Climate Change
Issues - the Role of Outreach
The Public has Many Climate The Public has Many Climate Change QuestionsChange Questions
• Is climate change or global warming real?
• Isn’t the current warming trend just part of a natural cycle?
• How do we know human activities are the cause?
• Can we do anything about climate change?
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Providing Solid Science;
Krakatoa
Agung (Bali)
St. Helens
Pinatubo
Pelée
(Taken from NERA Overview, 2001)
The Solar Cycles
11 years
100+ years
• CO2 exists in two stable isotopic forms in the air - 12CO2 (light CO2) and 13CO2 (heavy CO2);
• Green plants selectively take up 12CO2 (light CO2);
• When fossil fuels are burned, they emit more light CO2 than occurs in air because the fuels were originally made from green plants.
Ambient “Heavy” 13CO2 Concentrations
Total Atmospheric
CO2 Concentrations
Baseline represents average temperatures for 1861-1899; 2005 includes the full year 2005.
2005 the warmest year on record
1998 the previous warmest year
Sunspot activity
Baseline represents average temperatures for 1861-1899; 2005 includes the full year 2005.
First Half 20th Century
Warming (Natural)
Mid-Century Cooling (Urban
Pollution)
Latter Half 20th Century
Warming (GHGs)
No cooling volcanoes along with increasing sunspot activity
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Providing Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)
300
500
400
600
180
200
220
240
260
280
Tem
p. in
F°
CO
2 C
on
centratio
n
Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel BurningProjected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning
CO
2 [
pp
mv]
The EPICA Ice Core Project
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)
300
500
400
600
180
200
220
240
260
280
Tem
p. in
F°
CO
2 C
on
centratio
n
Today’s CO2 Concentration 384 ppm
Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel BurningProjected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning
CO
2 [
pp
mv]
The EPICA Ice Core Project
Pre-Industrial Maximum
Pre-Industrial Minimum
The Range of Natural Variability
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
Linear trend in annual temperature (oF) from 1899-2000 for the Northeast. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station.
Spatial Variation of Annual Temperature Trend 1899-2000
1.8oF over past 100 years
Use Regional Issues - New England Fall ColorsUse Regional Issues - New England Fall Colors
Changing Maple Sugaring ConditionsChanging Maple Sugaring Conditions
8-hour Average Peak Concentration
0-50 ppb
51-100 ppb
101-150 ppb
151-200 ppb
201-300 ppb
http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.displaymaps#map
Bad Ozone Day (8-hour peak values)
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
Tem
pera
ture
°C
Tem
pera
ture
°FHistoric
Historic –10
CGCM1
CGCM1-10
Hadley
Hadley-10
New England Regional Mean Historic and Model Scenario Annual Minimum Temperature Change
6oF
10oF
1.81.8ooFF
(Taken from NERA Overview, 2001)
(10o F)
(6o F)
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
• Be Honest;
What Must be Done to Avert Catastrophic Climate Change
Averting catastrophic climate change” is defined as limiting the increase in average global surface temperature to 2° C (3.6° F) above the pre-industrial level (pre-1750). This will require stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and its equivalents (“CO2e”) to 450 parts per million by volume (“450 ppmv CO2e”). To have a greater-than-50% chance of reaching the goal will require limits very close to:
(a) Capping the growth of all U.S. emissions by 2010;
(b) Reducing emissions by no less than 3.33% per year
from the baseline year of 2010; and
(c) Eliminating all human-induced emissions by 2040.
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
• Be Honest;
• But Also be Hopeful;
Recent findings from “Northeast Climate Choices” published in 2006 by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The difference between “higher” (business as usual) and “Lower”(an active
effort to reduce emissions by 3% per year). Emissions scenarios depend on our
energy choices - fossil fuels vs. alternative energy
5-15 years out 40-50 years out 80-90 years out
Assumptions made for the Lower Emissions Scenario• Extensive use of Public Transportation;• Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled;• More Fuel Efficient Cars (Higher CAFE Standards at 34 (2015) and 50 MPG (2030);• Use Low Carbon Fuels (Gasohol, E85);• Aggressive Development of Alternative sources of Energy (Wind, Solar, Tidal, etc.);• Improved Home Energy Efficiency (CFLs, Increased insulation, Energy-STAR Appliances, Passive Solar, etc.).
Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
• Be Honest;
• But Also be Hopeful.
Examples of Examples of Successful Programs Successful Programs
that Communicate that Communicate Climate Change Issues Climate Change Issues
with the Publicwith the Public
Available On-Line at: http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/
The New England Regional Assessment
Reducing Residential Greenhouse Gas Emissions through the New Hampshire Carbon Challenge
Denise Blaha and Julia Dundorf
At least 40% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions come from households:
• Vehicles
• Home Heating
• Electricity
Households Have a Critical Role
in Stabilizing Climate Change
The New Hampshire Carbon Challenge
A UNH initiative committed to providing NH residents and communities with the information, tools and support necessary for households to reduce their CO2 emissions by 10,000 pounds per year.
COMMUNITY-WIDE CHALLENGESCOMMUNITY-WIDE CHALLENGES
• Town-wide Carbon ChallengesTown-wide Carbon Challenges
• Organization ChallengesOrganization Challenges
• Employee ChallengesEmployee Challenges
• School Challenges School Challenges
Our Google Map of Challenge Takers
Strategies for Success: Build Community (Make Carbon Reduction Fun!)
Strategies for Success: Recognize Actions and Achievement
Bumper stickers and window decals for Challenge takers
Strategies for SuccessRecognize Actions and Achievement
Monthly
“Climate Heroes”
NH Carbon Challenge Achievements
• 115 public presentations on climate change have led to household actions by approximately 6000 residents.
• 2.8 millions tons CO2 committed to be reduced
• $340,000 to be saved in reduced energy costs
• Developed “Climate Change Champions” workshop series to train 40-60 presenters to give talks in their communities
• Collaborating with other New England states to regionalize efforts
Lessoned Learned
• Behavior change is really difficult; many obstacles exist.
• Focus on communities (towns, businesses, faith-based organizations, civic groups) is ESSENTIAL to galvanizing action.
• Information alone is insufficient to bring about change
• Simple changes (like switching light bulbs) often lead to more substantial actions and deeper cuts in household CO2 emissions
Forest Watch Bridging Science and Education Through
Ground-Truth Studies of White Pine Stands
Consider the Hybrid Option
Remember, there are 25 Pounds of CO2 in every Gallon of Gas!
Source: W. Eugene Smith The Family of Man Exhibition
What Will the Future Be? Our Decisions Today Will Shape Tomorrow