by a. İdil gaziulusoy, ph.d. candidate co-author dr. carol boyle the university of auckland
DESCRIPTION
A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for Sustainable Technology Development: Incorporating Future Studies within a Co-Evolutionary Approach. by A. İdil Gaziulusoy, Ph.D. Candidate Co-author Dr. Carol Boyle The University of Auckland International Centre for - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for Sustainable Technology Development:
Incorporating Future Studies within a Co-Evolutionary Approach
byA. İdil Gaziulusoy, Ph.D. Candidate
Co-authorDr. Carol Boyle
The University of AucklandInternational Centre for
Sustainability Engineering and Research
FEBRUARY 2007
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Introduction
SUSTAINABILITY
ECONOMY
SOCIETY
ENVIRONMENT WHAT? conceptual priority: society operational priority: environmentWHEN? long-term planning as operational context widens the length of time increases
Sustainability is a “moving target” (Hjorth & Bagheri, 2006).
Global Meta-System
X
X
X
X
XX
XX
X
Operational Context N
Operational Context 3
Operational Context 2
Operational Context 1
local
Influence path
Feed-back path
present future
global
Time
Size
of t
he O
pera
tiona
l Con
text
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
IntroductionTEMPORAL-SPATIAL FRAME
Introduction
COMPLEXITY
“A crucial assumption of reductionism” is that we can break complex systems into parts and study these in isolation (Linstone, 1999).
Frog Science versusBicycle Science
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
IntroductionCO-EVOLUTION
Environment
Society
Economy
market operations
technology
industry
animals
humans
companies
ecosystems
Environment
Society
Economy COMPLEXADAPTIVESYSTEMS
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
EXTENT:RADICAL
“Solutions are needed that break existing trends in current development processes.” (Weaver, Jansen, van Grootveld, van Spiegel, & Vergragt, 2000)
Present technological paradigm New
technological paradigm
Sustainable Technology Development
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Sustainable Technology Development
CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING
Technological Paradigm
technology
economy society
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING
Regulatory push/pull
Environmental
Cleff & Rennings (1999); Rennings (2000)
Innovations
Market pull
Technology push
Sustainable Technology Development
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING
Technology Economy
Society
Environment
GOVERNANCE
“Successful action depends on a combination of advances in scientific understanding, appropriate political programmes, social reforms and other institutional changes, as well as on the scale and direction of new investment. Organisational and social innovations would always have to accompany any technical innovations and some would have to come first” (Freeman, 1992)
Sustainable Technology Development
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
RELEVANCE
Planning for sustainable technology development should:•Have a long-term coverage;•Be able to address complexity;•Be able to deal with co-evolutionary change both as a result and as a cause; •Should allow continuous feedback, reassessment and adjustment to cope with dynamic characteristics and changing requirements of sustainability concept; and•Provide creative vision to guide the innovation path towards radical change.GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
RELEVANCE
Future StudiesEngineering
Sustainable Developmen
t
STD
Sustainability ScienceSustainability
Engineering
Technology Development
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOL
Future?
PresentIncremental improvement # 1
Incremental improvement # 2
FORECASTING
Plan
ning
STE
P #
1
Incremental C
hange
Incremental improvement # 3
Incremental improvement # ?
Present
FutureSUSTAINABILITY
BACKCASTING
Foresighting STEP # 1
Bac
kcas
ting
STEP
# 2 R
adical Change
Milestone # 1
Milestone # 2
Milestone # 3
Milestone # N
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOLBackcasting is useful: • when the problem to be studied is complex; • many sectors and levels of society are involved; • when there is a need for major change since dominant trends are part of the problem; and • when the time horizon is long enough to allow considerable scope for deliberate choice (Dreborg, 1996)
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
X
X
sector/
X
X
X
Influence path
Feed-back path
present future
Time
Size
of t
he O
pera
tiona
l Con
text Policy
development
Institutional innovations
Social/cultural innovations
Organisational innovations
Technological innovations
company
country
X
X
X
local
X
X
X
X
XX
Operational Context N
Operational Context 3
Operational Context 2
Operational Context 1
Influence path
Feed-back path
present future
global
Time
Size
of t
he O
pera
tiona
l Con
text
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Socio-Economic DomainSocio-Technical Domain
(Socio-)Techno-Economic Domain“INDUSTRY”
GOVERNANCE
Technology Economy
Society
Environment
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
INDUSTRY
Institutional and Social Innovations
Policy/LegislationPublic AwarenessStakeholder Demand
Company VisionCompetitiveness
Shareholder Values
New Values
Organisational Innovations
Technological Innovations
New Capabilities New Competencies
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCLUSION
GAZIULUSOY February 2007
• Shift in the technological paradigm is needed;• Incorporating future studies into technology planning can facilitate this shift;• When planning for technologies co-evolutionary aspects of innovation should be considered;• Backcasting is promising as a normative and analytical meta-tool for planning within a co-evolutionary approach;• In a backcastıng exercise policy development should cover the longest time span to overlook and link institutional, social/cultural, organisational and technological innovations.