business opportunities turkish maritime industry€¦ · business opportunities in turkish maritime...
TRANSCRIPT
Business opportunities in Turkish Maritime Industry
Marco Rensma
Director MEYS Emerging Markets Research
Istanbul, 24 May 2012
www.meys.eu
Content presentation1. Introduction MEYS Emerging Markets Research
2. Global trends seaborne trade and shipbuilding
3. Economic developments Turkey
4. Turkish maritime industry:4.1 Developments seaborn trade Turkey4.2 Trends in Turkish shipbuilding4.3 Market of tankers and bulk carriers4.4 Market of mega yachts4.5 Market of naval ships4.6 Market of offshore supply vessels
5. Outlook maritime industry Turkey 2012 - 2014
www.meys.eu
1. Introduction MEYS EmergingMarkets Research
www.meys.eu
www.meys.eu
− International market research and advisory for Dutch companies
− Focus on the emerging markets of:• Romania Turkey• Hungary Morocco• Czech Republic Vietnam
− Business clients from industry, construction, trade & logistics, transport
− Official partner TurkeyDesk - Fenedex
− Writing articles on emerging markets for:• Fenedexpress, monthly magazine Fenedex• Romania Magazine, quarterly magazine Dutch Romanian Network
− Presentations for companies, business associations, and universities on emergingmarkets and globalisation
− Parttime lecturer Global Marketing, The Hague University of Applied Sciences
What we do
2. Global trends seaborne trade andshipbuilding
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Increased volume world seaborne trade
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500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
19
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90
20
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20
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International developments seaborne trade(millions of tons loaded)
Oil Main bulks* Other dry cargo ContainerSource: UNCTADNote: (*) Iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite/alumnia and phosphate
Growth rate world seaborne tradecould become lower after 2011
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20
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
-6
-4
-2
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USD
/bar
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(%)
Seaborne trade Global economy Oil prices (R-axis)Source: UNCTAD, IMF, own calculations
Declining world volume new orders and order books
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World volume (million GT)
New orders Order booksSource: SAJN
Declining demand tankers and bulk carriers; small increase container ships
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
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20
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World order book(mill. DWT)
Tanker < 200.000 DWTTanker > 200.000 DWTCapesize
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
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World order book container ships (mill. TEU)
Source: RS Platou
Falling prices for new tankers, bulk carriers and container vessels
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1002
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8M
01
20
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M0
4
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M0
7
20
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M1
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20
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M0
1
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4
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7
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10
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1
20
10
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4
20
10
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7
20
10
M1
0
20
11
M0
1
20
11
M0
4
20
11
M0
7
20
11
M1
0
20
12
M0
1
20
12
M0
4
Mill
ion
USD
Suezmax Capesize 3.000 TEUSource: RS Platou
Lower demand mega yachts
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214
90
114 108
20
218
261
213195
176
53
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Nu
mb
ers
New orders DeliveriesNote: (*) Jan. - AprilSource: Camper and Nicholson, Boat International, SuperYacht Times
Increasing demand for offshore supply vessels (excl. tugboats)
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500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
20
07
okt
20
08
jan
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jul
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feb
Volume world order books OSVs(number)
Source: Marcon International
Increasing overcapacity at shipyardsworldwide
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-20
-10
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10
20
30
40
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60
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e
Mill
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CG
T
Completions Shipbuilding capacity OvercapacitySource: POSCO Research Institute
3. Economic developments Turkey
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Turkey higher economic growth ratethan EU-27
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-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
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Economic growth rate (GDP, %)
EU-27 the Netherlands TurkeySource: IMF
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50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,02
00
0
20
01
20
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20
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20
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20
05
20
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20
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20
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20
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Total foreign trade Turkey (billion euro)
Source: Turkstat
Strong increase total foreign trade
Economicliberalisation
www.meys.eu0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
TurkeyGreeceFrance
ItalySpain
United KingdomPortugalRomania
FinlandNorwayCroatia
EU-27Poland
GermanySweden
DenmarkSwitzerland
AustriaLatvia
BulgariaSlovenia
LithuaniaCzech Republic
BelgiumNetherlands
SlovakiaEstonia
HungaryMalta
Ireland
Exports, 2011 (% of GDP)
Turkey relatively small export sector
Source: Eurostat
www.meys.eu-10 -5 0 5 10 15
TurkeyGreeceIceland
PortugalNew Zealand
SpainItaly
United StatesCzech Republic
CanadaFrance
AustraliaUnited Kingdom
SloveniaFinland
BelgiumIsrael
IrelandSlovak Republic
AustriaJapanKorea
EstoniaGermanyDenmark
SwedenNetherlandsSwitzerland
Norway
Current account balance, 2011 (% GDP)
Turkey large deficit current account
Source: IMF
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-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,02
00
9M
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Inflation Turkey 2009 – 2012 (%)
Total Food Energy
High inflationary pressure
Source: Eurostat
Weak Turkish Lira
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80
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105
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Real effective exchange rate TRY (2010 = 100)
Source: Bank International Settlements
Turkey Central Bank (still) holdsinterest rate relatively low
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5,00
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Policy rate (%)
Source: Central Bank Turkey
Economic outlook Turkey2012 – 2014 positive
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0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Growth rates for Turkey (%)
GDP Private consumptionExports Government consumptionSource: EIU
Turkish current account deficit remains high after 2011
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-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Balance current account Turkey (% GDP)
Source: IMF
4. Turkish Maritime Industry
www.meys.eu
4.1 Developments seaborne tradeTurkey
www.meys.eu
Turkey strategically located forinternational seaborne trade
www.meys.eu
Ports are located all alongTurkish coast
www.meys.eu
Source: ISPAT
• 175 Ports• 90 per cent private operated
Busy times at Turkish seaports
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100
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400
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Volume goods handled at Turkish seaports(million tons)
Total volume Export/importSource: UMA
Cabotage
Slowing down growth rateseaborne trade
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-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
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M0
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Growth rate seaborne trade Turkey(%)
Exports ImportsSource: Turkish customs
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0 5 10 15 20
SwedenViet Nam
FranceNetherlands
UAECyprus
IndonesiaBrazil
Saudi ArabiaIran
BelgiumMalaysia
IndiaCanada
RussiaTurkey
UKItaly
BermudaSingapore
TaiwanDenmark
China, Hong Kong SARNorway
USRepublic of Korea
China excl. Hong KongGermany
JapanGreece
Total DWT merchant fleet as a percentage in world total, 1-1-2011 (%)
(a)
Source: UNCTADNote: (a) Vessels of 1,000 GT and above operating under national and foreign flag
Turkey relatively large merchant fleet
Relatively young merchant fleet
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 - 9 years
10 - 19 years
20 - 29 years
30+ years
Age merchant fleet Turkey, % in total DWT (December 2011)
Mainly smaller vessels< 10.000 DWT
Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping
www.meys.eu
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Volume container handling Turkish ports(x 1.000 TEU)
Strong increase container handling
Source: UMA, TURKLIM
www.meys.eu
- 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
TurkeyPanama
FranceViet NamThailandAustralia
EgyptBrazil
United KingdomIndonesia
IndiaItaly
BelgiumNetherlands
TaiwanSpain
GermanyUAE
MalaysiaKorea, Republic of
JapanHong KongSingapore
United StatesChina
Container throughput, 2009 (x 1.000 TEU)
Turkish ports relatively small globallyin container handling
Source: UNCTAD
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4.2 Trends in Turkish shipbuilding
www.meys.eu
Concentration of shipyards inIstanbul (Tuzla Bay) and Yalova
(27)
(8)
Yalova (21)
Canakkale (2)
Izmit (6)
Sakarva (1)
(1)(1)
(1) (1)
(1)
Hatay (1)
Source: UMA
71 shipyardsas of 1-1-2012
www.meys.eu
0,07%
0,08%
0,08%
0,09%
0,12%
0,12%
0,15%
0,17%
0,22%
0,33%
0,35%
0,35%
0,44%
0,50%
0,56%
0,60%
1,24%
21,77%
31,34%
41,07%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
BulgariaPoland
ItalyIndia
NetherlandsIndonesia
SpainRussia
USTurkey
GermanyCroatiaTaiwan
DenmarkViet NamRomania
PhilippinesJapan
Republic of KoreaChina
Top 20 economies for shipbuilding, 2010 deliveries(% in world total DWT)
Turkey among the ‘best of the rest’
Source: UNCTAD
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
00
20
01
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10
Number of ships builtat Turkish shipyards
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
20
03
20
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20
06
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20
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20
10
20
11
Ship deliveries and max. production capacity (x 1.000 DWT)
Ship deliveries Production capacity
Large overcapacity at Turkish shipyards
Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping, UMA
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-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Total order books Turkish shipyards(x 1.000 GT)
9%
17%
1%2%
71%
Order books by type of ship 2010 (%)
Container General cargo RO-RO
Bulk Carrier Tanker
Order books Turkish shipyards are underpressure. Focus primarily on tanker building
Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping, SAJN
4.3 Market of tankers andbulk carriers
www.meys.eu
Tankers and bulk carriers most usedvessels in Turkish merchant fleet
www.meys.eu
1.000.000
2.500.000
4.000.000
5.500.000
7.000.000
8.500.000
10.000.000
11.500.000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Merchant fleet Turkey (DWT)*
Tankers Bulk carriers TotalNote: (*) ships over 150 GTSource: UMA
www.meys.eu
58,6
18,7
16,8
4,6 1,2
Ship deliveries Turkey 2010(percentage of built tonnage)
Tankers Bulk carriers
Other dry cargo/passenger Offshore
Others
Tankers and bulk carriers mainshipbuilding marketsegments
Source: OECD
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tanker deliveries Turkish shipyards (number)
Export Domestic
Since 2007 domestic demand fortankers higher than foreign demand
Source: OECD, Turkey Chamber of Shipping
Decreasing volume order books,particular for tankers
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57
179
116
9077 74
821
5 3 2 10
21 24 21 2213
2
2312 12 10 8
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2008jan 2009feb 2009dec 2010dec 2011mei 2011okt
Order books Turkey (number)
tanker bulk dry cargo container
Source: OECD, Turkey Chamber of Shipping, Clarkson
4.4 Market of mega yachts
www.meys.eu
Strong increase international tourism
www.meys.eu
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
30.000.000
35.000.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Foreigners arriving (persons)
Source: Turkstat
Turkey third largest builder ofmega yachts
www.meys.eu
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Italy
Netherlands
Turkey
Germany
US
UK
New Zealand
Taiwan
UAE
China
Others
Mega yachts builders 2010 (% in total boat length)
Source: Camper and Nicholson
Lower demand mega yachts fromTurkish shipyards
www.meys.eu
2325
2927
18
6
19
10
18
5
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
07
20
08
20
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12
*
Market of mega yachts Turkey (number)
Completed New orders
Note: (*) Jan. – AprilSource: SuperYacht Times, Camper and Nicholson
Lower prices 2012Q1 after records in 2010 and 2011
www.meys.eu
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Euro
Average asking prices mega yachts Turkey(Loa per metre)
Note: (*) Jan. - AprilSource: Boat International, Super Yacht Times, The Yacht Market
Examples of mega yachts built in Turkey
www.meys.eu
Boat: Peri 37MBuilder: Peri YachtsBoat length (Loa): 37.75 metresAsking price: 8.000.000 euro
Boat: Aegean Yacht KetchBuilder: Aegean YachtBoat length (Loa): 26.60 metresAsking price: 2.000.000 euro
4.5 Market of naval ships
www.meys.eu
Strong increase turnover Turkishdefense industry
www.meys.eu
-
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Defense industry Turkey (x 1.000 USD)
Turnover ExportsSource: SaSad
Strong increase in expenditures on military equipment
www.meys.eu
0200400600800
1.0001.2001.4001.6001.8002.000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
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11
Mill
ion
USD
Development Defense Industry Support Fund
Income Expenditures
Source: Undersecretary Defense Industry (SSM)
Large investment programs Turkish navy
www.meys.eu
MILGEM• Investment program of 2 billion dollars over
a period of 15 years• Building of twelve (four optional) Patrol and
Anti-Submarine Warfare Ships
GENESIS• Upgrading weapons
systems on board 8 frigates
Submarines• Building of 6 submarines• Value of the contract 2 billion dollars• Cooperation between HDW from Germany and
several Turkish companies, among others Aselanand Havelsan
TF-2000• Building of 6 anti-air frigates• Value of the contract 3 billion
dollars• First delivery 2018
4.6 Market of Offshore Supply Vessels
www.meys.eu
Turkey small builder inglobal market of OSVs
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20
07
okt
20
08
jan
20
08
apr
20
08
jul
20
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okt
20
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jan
20
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mei
20
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aug
20
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no
v
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feb
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mei
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aug
20
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no
v
20
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feb
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mei
20
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aug
20
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no
v
20
12
feb
Volume order books OSVs Turkish shipyards (number)
Turkey 1% of global market
Source: Marcon International
Examples Turkish built OSVs
www.meys.eu
RMK Shipyard• Offshore multi-purpose ship• 7.800 DWT• Delivery 2009• North Sea Shipping (Norway)
CEMRE Shipyard• Offshore support vessel• LOA 86 metres• Delivery September 2011• Havyard (Norway)
5. Outlook maritime industry Turkey 2012 - 2014
www.meys.eu
www.meys.eu
Market segment Outlook2012 – 2014
Market opportunities Market threats
Tankers ++ ✓ Increasing demand oil and gas transport✓ Strong domestic base✓ Partly replacement merchant fleet✓ Regional energy hub✓ Relatively low labour costs
✓ Falling newbuilding prices-> excess capacity
✓ Strong competition Asia✓ High investments costs
Bulk carriers + ✓ Growing economy Turkey✓ Partly replacement merchant fleet✓ Relatively low labour costs
✓ Falling newbuilding prices-> excess capacity
✓ Strong competition Asia✓ Lower growth rate global
economy
Container ships + ✓ Growing economy Turkey✓ Regional trading hub✓ Relative low labour costs
✓ Falling newbuilding prices-> excess capacity
✓ Strong competition Asia✓ Lower growth rate global
economy
Mega yachts ++ ✓ Strong increase international tourism✓ Higher incomes in Turkey
✓ Strong competition fromEurope
✓ Volatile and small global market
Naval ships +++ ✓ High government expenditures✓ Increase foreign demand
✓ Political developments✓ Difficult market to enter for
new foreign companies
OSVs ++ ✓ Investments by oil and gas industry✓ Increasing energy demand Turkey
✓ Strong global competition✓ High investments in R&D✓ Strong dependence on foreign
imports
Thank you for your attention!
www.meys.eu
Marco RensmaMobile: +31(0)612792560
E-mail: [email protected]