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Business Development Outlook
Paul Smith
Director, Business Development
• TGP projects nearing in-service – Supply Push:
• Susquehanna West: 145k – In Service (9/1)
• Orion: 135k – 11/1/2017
• Broad Run Expansion: 200k – 6/1/2018
– Demand Pull:
• Connecticut Expansion: 72k – 11/1/2017
• Triad: 180k – 11/1/2017
• Southwest LA Supply: 900k – 1/1/2018
• Lone Star: 300k – 1/1/2019
• Development opportunities – Bridging Northeast shale and GOM demand growth
• Nearing end of pipeline “reversal” phase
• Entering new “greenfield” phase
• Challenging economics for next NS project
– Incremental capacity for LNG and Mexico export
– Support growth and supply diversity for power-generation, LDC and industrial customers
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Forecast
Development Trends
Source: NGI, TGP Analysis
50 Bcf/d?
?
Regional Development Overview
Zone 0
• Supply – NS
– Permian
– Eagle Ford
– Conventional
• Demand – Mexico
– LNG Export
– Power
– Industrial
• Infrastructure Trends – Squeezing NS capacity
– Supply short at Agua Dulce
– Permian cross-haul
• TGP Development – South Pool to Agua Dulce
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Corpus Christie LNG
Freeport LNG
Waha
TGP Development Rio Bravo Pemex
TGP Project Customers Quantity (Dth/d)
Timing
South System Flex MexGas 500,000 In-Service
Lone Star Cheniere 300,000 Jan-2019
Zone L/1
• Supply – From Northeast – Haynesville – Fayetteville – GOM
• Demand – LNG – Power (SE) – Industrial
• Infrastructure Trends – Pipeline reversals – Further LNG expansions – Power-gen growth
• TGP Development – Marcellus/Utica to GOM – Capacity to LNG projects – Enhanced Florida access
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Northeast Supply
Sabal Trail (to FL)
Sabine Pass
Cameron
TGP Development
T85
Southeast Power-Gen
TGP Project Customers Quantity (Dth/d)
Timing
SW LA Supply Mitsubishi, Mitsui 900,000 Jan 2018
Zone 1 – Florida Access
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• TGP 500 Leg flush with > 1.5 Bcf/d supply from Marcellus / Utica
• Florida power-gen market continues to grow (now over 2 Bcf/d)
• Sabal Trail – Phase 1 placed into service July 3, 2017
– 830,000 Dth/d for FPL and Duke
– Phase 2 increases capacity to > 1 Bcf/d by 2021
• T85 Pools provide enhanced access to Florida market via Sabal Trail and Mobile Bay Lateral
Zone 2/3
• Supply
– From Northeast
– Broad Run
– MGT (to Zone 1)
• Demand
– South of Sta. 87
– Power
• Infrastructure Trends
– Pipeline Reversals – TGP, TETCO, CGT, MGT
• TGP Development
– NS Capacity
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Broad Run
MGT
TGP Development
Hanging Rock
TCO Pool
Northeast Supply
TGP Project Customer Quantity (Dth/d)
Timing
Broad Run Flex Antero 590,000 In-Service
Broad Run Expansion Antero 200,000 Jun 2018
Tennessee Valley Power-Gen
Zone 4
• Supply
– NEPA Marcellus
– SW Marcellus
– Utica
• Demand
– Power
– Cove Point Q4
– Canada
• Infrastructure Trends
– Greenfield & “Plus-One”
– ~17 Bcf/d new capacity coming
• ~12 Bcf/d out of basin
• TGP Development
– Connecting supply to TGP and other pipeline interconnects
– Connecting new markets
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Dawn Liberty
Lackawanna
Cove Point
TGP Development
REX Carroll Co.
Rivervale
5.2 Bcf/d
PennEast
To Canada
TGP Project Customer Quantity (Dth/d)
Timing
Susquehanna West Statoil 145,000 In-Service
Orion Cabot, So. Jersey 135,000 Nov 2017
Triad Invenergy 180,000 Nov 2017
Impact of Rover
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• Phase 1A in-service on 9-1-2017
– Capacity ~ 700,000 Dth/d on Mainline A
– Cadiz to Defiance
– Receipts: ORS and MarkWest
– Deliveries: ANR and PEPL/Trunkline
– Majority of flows from ORS to ANR
• Some HDDs resumed 9/18 – Clarington Lateral
• Phase 1B ~ 1.0 Bcf/d
– Dec 2017
• Phase 2 ~3.25 Bcf/d
– Mar 2018
• Impacting flows on other pipelines *
– Receipts to TETCO down ~450,000 Dth/d
– Receipts to REX down ~ 50,000 Dth/d
– REX deliveries to ANR down ~300,000 Dth/d
• Lifting regional basis and production
– Northeast production now > 24 Bcf/d
– Up to 200,000 Dth/d of new production attributed to Rover
– New production expected to fill by 2019
* TGP estimates based on industry sources and pipeline postings
SW Marcellus / Utica Takeaway Projects
Atlantic Coast Pipeline 600 Miles 1.5 Bcf/d
Late-2019
Mountain Valley Pipeline 303 Miles 2.0 Bcf/d Late-2018
NEXUS 255 Miles 1.5 Bcf/d Mid-2018
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REX 2.6 Bcf/d
In-Service
Northeast Projects
PennEast 120 Miles 1.1 Bcf/d
Late 2018
Atlantic Sunrise 183 Miles 1.7 Bcf/d
July 2018
Northern Access 97 Miles 0.35 Bcf/d 2018
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Millennium Valley Lateral
8 Miles 0.13 Bcf/d Late 2017
Millennium Eastern System Upgrade 8 Miles 0.22 Bcf/d Fall 2018
Zone 5/6
• Supply – From PA
– Interconnect
– LNG
– Canada
– NY HF ban
• Demand – Canada
– LDC
– Power
• Infrastructure Trends – NY Permitting – Litigation
– Capacity to New England
• TGP Development – Connecting 300 Leg supply to
new/expanded Interconnects
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TGP Development
Canadian Supply
Canadian Supply
TGP Development
?
TGP Project Customers Quantity (Dth/d)
Timing
CT Expansion So CT, CT Natural, Yankee Gas 72,100 Nov 2017
Summary
• TGP in construction phase on numerous projects
– Reversal of TGP nearly complete
– Three projects entering service 11-1-2017
• NE supply and GOM demand marches on
– Numerous greenfield and “plus-one” projects under construction
– Challenging economics moving more northeast supply to the south
• TGP development activity
– South Texas and Mexico
– LNG and industrial markets near GOM
– New England – LDCs and power
– Connecting Marcellus and Utica supply
• Local markets and interconnects
• Bridge to GOM
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36” Looping for Triad project
Paul Smith Director Business Development
Tennessee Gas Pipeline
Office: 713-420-4686 Cell: 205-910-9185
Business Development Contacts
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Stuart Neck Director Business Development
Tennessee Gas Pipeline
Office: 713-420-2230 Cell: 281-948-2405
Alison Stringer Manager Business Development
Tennessee Gas Pipeline
Office: 713-420-5176 Cell: 281-814-7361
Christine Pratt Director Commercial Contract Admin
Tennessee Gas Pipeline
Office: 713-420-3669 Cell: 832-492-8067
Preston Troutman Vice President Business Development
Tennessee Gas Pipeline
Office: 713-420-3022 Cell: 713-206-3290
Parisa Mansoori Senior Account Manager Tennessee Gas Pipeline
Office: 713-420-4855
Cell: 832-444-1328 [email protected]