business continuity and the weather
TRANSCRIPT
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Business Continuity And The Weather Kevin Wadsworth, Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)
Some Types Of Weather Can Cause Major Issues
• Heavy rain/flooding
• Snow and Ice
• Extreme Temperatures
• High Winds
• Fog
• Lightning
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Impacts of a heatwave
• Motorways – tarmac melting – traffic congestion
• Rail lines and other structures buckling
• Increasing demand for power supply – air conditioning
• 2 million extra pints of beer sold over the summer … public unrest?
• Increasing risk of forest and heath fires.
• Millions of pounds worth of failed crops
• Animal welfare – heat exhaustion – unable to transport
• As the ground dries out thousands of subsidence claims pour into insurers – overall cost £60 million or more
Impacts
2006 2003
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug
no
. o
f d
eath
s
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
tem
per
atu
re
oC
Average daily deaths 1998-2002
ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003
Maximum temperature (London)
2000 extra deaths
Estimated 30,000 extra deaths across
the whole of Europe
2006
Forecast up to 30 days ahead
Press release
The future?
European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s
observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2003
2040s
2060s
Tem
per
atu
re a
no
mal
y (w
rt 1
961-
90)
°C
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30311816
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Huge FinancialCosts
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Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre
• Embedded in Met Office Hazard Centre• 24x7x365 – 29 April’14 • Enhanced capability autumn ’14
• Operational collaboration with NOAA SWPC & BGS• Daily forecast coordination
• Add UK-centric advice and impacts
Dynamic Space EnvironmentSpace Weather Types and Arrival Times from Sun
ElectromagneticRadiation & Energetic Charged Particles and
Charged Plasma
Solar Wind Galactic Cosmic Radiation
Geomagnetic Storms
Solar Flares / Radio Blackout
Solar radiation Storms
Days
Hours/Mins
Minutes
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Space weather impacts
So How Do We Prepare ?
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1. The National Risk Register
2. Met Office Forecasts/Warnings
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Google It
www.metoffice.gov.uk
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Register to receive weather warnings or download the app
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Risk Matrix showing how likelihood and impact are combined for each event
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Severe Weather WarningsColour Codes
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Impact TableVery Low Low Medium High
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Volcanic Ash Predictions
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Who provides the Met Office Response?
Environment Monitoring & Response Centre (EMARC)
01392 886095
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Your Local Advisor
• Kevin Wadsworth Met Office Advisor for Northeast England,
• Yorkshire and The Humber
• Mobile: 07825 102520
• Email: [email protected]
• EMARC: 01392 886095
• www.metoffice.gov.uk
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