business confidence da

8/9/2019 Business Confidence DA

1/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1/25

Business Confdence DA

How to use:

1NC No specifc links, ust !e"d t#e s#ell, $ut t#is onl% "pplies to !e&ul"to!% pl"ns'

(#ese include, )o! e*"+ple:

Co!e Au"cultu!e

Co!e -il D!illin&

.. 0e"sin& "lte! 3"%ton4

N"tu!"l "s D!illin& 0ind$lo+, No!t#side4

2NC 6se c"!ds to suppo!t %ou! position "s necess"!%' (#e!e "!e c"se tu!n

e*tensions )o! &lo$"l w"!+in&, C#in", "nd te!!o!is+ i+p"cts i) t#e A7 uses "n% o)t#ose "s #"!+s'


2/30


Business Confdence DA 1NC ShellA. Uniqueness: The economy is improving no !usinesses

"re e#p"nding "nd incre"sing hiring

$ee %&1'Don 0ee, 8A+e!ic"ns )eelin& +o!e confdent "$out fndin& $ette!9p"%in&

o$s, 0A (i+es, ;/1 ?#ttp://www'l"ti+es'co+/$usiness/l"9f9su!@e%9u"lit%9o$s92=1>=;1


3/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle /25

B. $in( ) Ne oce"n regul"*ions "re !"d +or !usiness *h"*

d"m"ges cruci"l elemen*s o+ *he +ree m"r(e* economy

,"s*ings -1ep' Doc H"stin&s, 8 N"tion"l -ce"n 3olic% C!e"tes Mo!e ed("pe, Hu!ts .cono+%, Se" (ec#nolo&% M"&"Line, J"nu"!% 2=1 ?#ttp://se"9tec#nolo&%'co+/)e"tu!es/2=1/=11/n"tion"loce"npolic%'p#p4

(#e oce"ns"re "nin*egr"l p"r*o+ *he U.S. economy/ suppor*ing millions o+

0o!s *hroughou* *he coun*ry' Kt is i+po!t"nt to p!otect "nd p!ope!l% +"n"&e t#e oce"ns t#!ou "$"l"nced, +ultiuse "pp!o"c# t#"t !eco&niLes t#e need )o! $ot# en@i!on+ent"l stew"!ds#ip "nd !esponsi$le use o)

!esou!ces' 6n)o!tun"tel%, 3!esident B"!"ck -$"+" #"s i+posed ne regul"*ionst#"t coun*er *his

!"l"nced "ppro"ched *o oce"n m"n"gemen*. (#e "d+inist!"tions N"tion"l -ce"n 3olic%c!e"tes " +"ssi@e new )ede!"l $u!e"uc!"c% wit# unp!ecedented cont!ol o@e! ou! oce"ns, !e"t 0"kes, !i@e!s "nd

w"te!s#eds t#"t could ne&"ti@el% i+p"ct ne"!l% e@e!% secto! o) t#e 6'S' econo+% in si&nifc"nt w"%s' Addition"l

Bu!e"uc!"c% 3!esident -$"+" en"cted t#e N"tion"l -ce"n 3olic% $% issuin& "n e*ecuti@e o!de!, +e"nin& t#is

d!"stic c#"n&e in oce"n +"n"&e+ent w"s done wit#out Con&!ession"l "ut#o!iL"tion' (o d"te, no $ill #"s p"ssed t#e

6'S' House o) ep!esent"ti@es to i+ple+ent si+il"! )"!9!e"c#in& oce"n policies' (#e e*ecuti@e o!de! c!e"tes " we$o) $u!e"uc!"c% t#"t includes doLens o) new policies, councils, co++ittees, pl"nnin& $odies, p!io!it% o$ecti@es,

"ction pl"ns, n"tion"l &o"ls "nd &uidin& p!inciples' "t#e! t#"n st!e"+line )ede!"l +"n"&e+ent, t#e p!esidentsiniti"ti@e will inste"d "dd l"%e!s o) new !ed t"pe "nd c!e"te " top9down "pp!o"c#' Oo! e*"+ple, )ede!"ll%9cont!olled

!e&ion"l pl"nnin& $odies will $e t"sked wit# c!e"tin& Lonin& pl"ns )o! e"c# !e&ion wit#out input o! !ep!esent"tion)!o+ loc"l st"ke#olde!s o! "7ected indust!ies' All !ele@"nt )ede!"l "&encies, st"tes "nd !e&ul"ted co++unities will

$e $ound $% t#e pl"ns, w#ic# will $e used to +"ke decisions on !e&ion"l pe!+ittin& "cti@ities' Jo$ "nd .cono+ic

K+p"cts Alt#ou +"!keted "s " co++on9sense pl"n to de@elop "nd p!otect ou! oce"ns, t#e N"tion"l -ce"n 3olic%

will inGict econo+ic #"!+ "nd unce!t"int% on A+e!ic"s o$ c!e"to!s' K+posin& +"nd"to!% oce"n Lonin& could pl"ce

#u&e po!tions o) ou! oce"ns "nd co"sts o79li+its, cu!t"ilin& ene!&% de@elop+ent, co++e!ci"l fs#in& "nd

!ec!e"tion"l "cti@ities' (#e !e"c# o) t#e polic% &oes $e%ond t#e oce"ns' Kt &i@es t#e !e&ion"l pl"nnin& $odies

"ut#o!it% to !e&ul"te "s )"! inl"nd "s necess"!%' (#is could i+p"ct "ll "cti@ities occu!!in& on l"nds "d"cent to !i@e!s,

t!i$ut"!ies o! w"te!s#eds t#"t d!"in into t#e oce"n' A mul*i*ude o+ indus*ries could !e

"ec*ed/ including "gricul*ure/ fshing/ cons*ruc*ion/ m"nu+"c*uring/

mining/ oil "nd n"*ur"l g"s/ "nd rene"!le energy. These indus*ries

suppor* *ens o+ millions o+ 0o!s "nd con*ri!u*e *rillions o+ doll"rs *o *he

U.S. economy. (#e polic% "lso in@ol@es @"&ue "nd undefned o$ecti@es t#"t would c!e"te unce!t"int% )o!

$usinesses "nd o$ c!e"to!s, "nd open t#e Good&"tes )o! liti&"tion' Acco!din& to testi+on% !ecei@ed $% t#e HouseN"tu!"l esou!ces Co++ittee, t#is unce!t"int% will likel% inc!e"se costs to p!i@"te l"ndowne!s "nd $usinesses,

c"use co+p"nies to cut $"ck on in@est+ent "nd o$ c!e"tion, "nd li+it A+e!ic"n ene!&% p!oduction $ot# on9 "nd

o7s#o!e' Kt is "lso uncle"! #ow +uc# t#is initi"ti@e will cost t"*p"%e!s, #ow it is $ein& )unded "nd i) it will t"ke

+one% "w"% )!o+ e*istin& "&enc% $ud&ets "t " ti+e w#en $ud&ets "!e "l!e"d% $ein& cut' Con&!ession"l -@e!sit

(#e House N"tu!"l esou!ces Co++ittee #eld " se!ies o) o@e!sit #e"!in&s to $ette! unde!st"nd t#e polic%, $ut t#e

-$"+" "d+inist!"tion #"s )"iled to "nswe! uestions on t#e )undin& )o! t#is initi"ti@e, t#e $!e"dt# o) its !e"c# "nd

t#e i+p"ct it will #"@e on o$s, t#e econo+% "nd ene!&% secu!it%' (#is led to " $ip"!tis"n @ote o) t#e House in M"%

to p"use )undin& )o! t#e p!esidents initi"ti@e until its o$ "nd econo+ic i+p"cts "!e known' (#is e7o!t w"s

suppo!ted $% +o!e t#"n


4/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle >/25

C. 2n*ern"l $in( ) The coll"pse o+ !usiness confdence ould

c"use recession dependence on i* is " g"m!le

Br"*h"i*e 3Jo#n is "n Aust!"li"n ese"!c# Council Oede!"tion )ellow "tAust!"li"n N"tion"l 6ni@e!sit%, "nd c#"i! o) t#e e&ul"to!% Knstitutions Netwo!k,M"!c# 2==>, (#e Ann"ls o) (#e A+e!ic"n Ac"de+% o) 3olitic"l "nd Soci"l Science,

5F2 Ann"ls ;F, 8.+"ncip"tion "nd Hope, JS(-4

The ch"llenge o+ designing ins*i*u*ions *h"* simul*"neously engender

em"ncip"*ion "nd hope is "ddressed i*hin *he "ssump*ion o+

economic ins*i*u*ions *h"* "re +und"men*"lly c"pi*"lis*. (#is

conte+po!"!% &lo$"l conte*t &i@es +o!e )o!ce to t#e #ope ne*us $ec"use we

know c"pi*"lism *hrives on hope. 4hen !usiness confdence coll"pses/c"pi*"lis* economies he"d +or recession. This dependence on hope is

o+ qui*e gener"l impor*5 !usiness le"ders mus* h"ve hope +or *he

+u*ure !e+ore *hey ill !uild ne +"c*ories5 consumers need confdence

!e+ore *hey ill !uy h"* *he +"c*ories m"(e5 inves*ors need

confdence !e+ore *hey ill !uy sh"res in *he comp"ny *h"* !uilds *he+"c*oryI !"n(ers need confdence *o lend money *o !uild *he +"c*ory5

scien*is*s need confdence *o innov"*e i*h ne *echnologies in *he

hope *h"* " c"pi*"lis* ill come "long "nd m"r(e* *heir inven*ion 'e%ness ?1FQ1F


5/30


Uniqueness #*ensionsThe US economy is s*"!le !u* no* immune *o slodon

in*eres* r"*es rem"in lo "nd ;eder"l !ond purch"ses con*inue

A;< %&1=86S econo+% &!owin& "c!oss n"tion: Oed Bei&e Book, A&ence O!"nce9

3!esse, ;/1Q/2=1> ?#ttp://www'")p'co+/en/news/us9econo+%9&!owin&9"c!oss9n"tion9)ed9$ei&e9$ook4

(#e6S econo+% kept e*p"ndin& in "ll !e&ions o) t#e count!% in June "nd e"!l% Jul%,

#elped $% st!en&t# in consu+e! spendin&, " Oede!"l ese!@e su!@e% indic"tes' All 12o) t#e Oeds !e&ions !epo!ted &!owt# wit# f@e9 New Uo!k, C#ic"&o, Minne"polis, D"ll"s "nd S"n

O!"ncisco 9 c#"!"cte!isin& &!owt# "s R+ode!"teR w#ile t#e ot#e!s !epo!ted R+odestR

&!owt#'(#e Oeds su!@e%, known "s t#e Bei&e Book, will $e used $% cent!"l $"nk oEci"ls w#en t#e% +eet l"te!t#is +ont# to !e@iew inte!est !"te policies' An"l%sts e*pect t#"t t#e Oed will keep its s#o!t9te!+

inte!est !"te "t " !eco!d low ne"! Le!o "nd "ut#o!ise "not#e! !eduction in its $ond

pu!c#"ses "i+ed "t keepin& lon&9te!+ inte!est !"tes low' Oede!"l ese!@e c#"i!wo+"n J"netUellen, w#o spent two d"%s deli@e!in& t#e Oeds twice9"9%e"! polic% !epo!t to Con&!ess, e+p#"sised t#"t despite!ecent &"ins in e+plo%+ent, t#e cent!"l $"nk w"s in no !us# to wit#d!"w t#e

+"ssi@e suppo!t it is p!o@idin& to t#e econo+%' (#e Oed #"s kept its $enc#+"!k s#o!t9te!+ !"te "tLe!o since Dece+$e! 2==< "nd +"n% "n"l%sts $elie@e t#e f!st !"te inc!e"se is still "$out " %e"! "w"%' (#e !epo!t

s"id consu+e! spendin& #"d inc!e"sed in e@e!% dist!ict wit# c"! s"les &ene!"ll%

st!on&e! t#"n ot#e! !et"il s"les'(ou!is+ !e+"ined st!on& wit# #otels in t#e Boston, New Uo!k,Atl"nt" "nd Minne"polis dist!icts desc!i$in& !oo+ de+"nd "s !o$ust' (#e !epo!t s"id +"n% dist!icts !epo!ted low

in@ento!ies o) #o+es )o! s"les "nd !isin& #ouse p!ices' But Boston, New Uo!k "nd St 0ouis s"id t#"t s"les we!e $elow

%e"!9"&o le@els' All 12 dist!icts !epo!ted o$ &"ins wit# se@e!"l dist!icts s"%in& t#"t $usinesses we!e !epo!tin&

diEculties in fllin& positions )o! skilled wo!ke!s' "&e p!essu!es !e+"ined +odest'(#e Oed $e&innin& in

Dece+$e! st"!ted !educin& its +ont#l% $ond pu!c#"ses w#ic# #"@e $een "i+ed "t

keepin& lon&9te!+ inte!est !"tes low' Uellen s"id t#is week t#"t Oed oEci"ls e*pect to w!"pup t#ose pu!c#"ses "t t#e -cto$e! +eetin&'(#e Oed #"s !epe"ted t#"t t#e )ede!"l )unds

!"te, t#e ke% s#o!t9te!+ inte!est !"te it cont!ols, will likel% !e+"in ne"! Le!o ")te! t#e$ond pu!c#"ses end'

Sm"ll !usiness confdence high no

,"ll"d" %&13(on% H"ll"d", C.- Cli)ton0"!sonAllen e"lt# Ad@iso!s 00C' !itten w#ile citin& t#e S+"llBusiness -pti+is+ Knde* !ele"sed $% t#e Oede!"tion o) Kndependent Business' Cli)ton0"!sonAlle&n 00C' ;/1>/1>

#ttp://www'cl"connect'co+/3!i@"te9Client/e"lt#9Ad@iso!%/.cono+%93oised9to9e$ound9S+"ll9Business9Senti+ent9

"nd9-pti+is+9Jul%92=1>'"sp*V'6


6/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle Q/25

Sm"ll Business Confdence is on " p"*h o+ posi*ive gro*h)

!usiness condi*ions "nd spending pl"ns good no

Business 2nsider =&1'/1>8 ood News:S+"llBusiness Confdence !ows,(#e Business Knside! is " 6S $usiness "nd tec#nolo&% news we$site "nd p!o@ides"nd "n"l%Les $usiness news "nd "cts "s "n "&&!e&"to! o) top news sto!ies )!o+

"!ound t#e we$' Kts o!i&in"l wo!ks "!e so+eti+es cited $% ot#e!, l"!&e!, pu$lic"tionssuc# "s (#e New Uo!k (i+es? "nd do+estic news outlets like N3,

#ttp://ti+esofndi"'indi"ti+es'co+/$usiness/s+"ll9$usiness/top9sto!ies/ood9news9S+"ll9$usiness9confdence9&!ows/"!ticles#ow/Q;;A* l"s*/ sm"ll

!usinesses "re on *he move. 4e h"ve !een "i*ing +or +our ye"rs +or "

cle"n !re"( *o *he upside/ "nd i*?s fn"lly here. The rise in *he he"dline

l"rgely re8ec*s " @)poin* 0ump in economic e#pec*"*ions "nd " )poin* rise

in s"les e#pec*"*ions/ !u* sever"l o*her componen*s rose *oo.> NOKB c#ie)econo+ist Bill Dunkel$e!& w"s +o!e su$dued in #is !e"din& o) t#e d"t", notin& t#"t )ou! co+ponents +ost closel%!el"ted to D3 "nd e+plo%+ent &!owt# X o$ openin&s, o$ c!e"tion pl"ns, in@ento!% "nd c"pit"l spendin& pl"ns X

collecti@el% )ell 1 point in M"%' R'''The en*ire g"in in op*imism "s driven !y so+*

componen*s such "s e#pec*"*ions "!ou* s"les "nd !usiness condi*ions/>

Dun(el!erg s"id in " s*"*emen*. >4i*h prices !eing r"ised more +requen*ly

in response *o rising l"!our "nd higher energy cos*s i* is cle"r *h"* sm"ll

!usinesses "re unilling *o inves* in "n uncer*"in +u*ure

2nves*or Confdence ,igh

,#ttp://+illion"i!eco!ne!'co+/ContentO!ee/HiNet9o!t#9Kn@esto!s9!e"d%9t"ke9

!isks'"sp*4

(#e i+p"ct o) t#e wo!st !ecession since t#e !e"t Dep!ession is fn"ll% !ecedin&)!o+ t#e +indset o) t#e n"tions #i net9wo!t# indi@idu"ls'(#"t, "t le"st, is t#econclusion !e"c#ed in two studies on t#e fn"nci"l "ttitudes o) #i net9wo!t# in@esto!s, t#ose wit# "net wo!t# $etween Y5 +illion "nd Y25 +illion, "cco!din& to 0"ke Oo!est, Kllinois9$"sed Spect!e+ !oup'(#e f!+ "lso )ound t#is &!oup !e+"ins conce!ned "$out &!idlock in "s#in&ton, $ut does not see it

i+pedin& econo+ic &!owt#' (#ese !esults we!e cont"ined in t#e Spect!e+ AZuentKn@esto! Confdence Knde*, " !epo!t w#ic# s#owed t#"t t#e inde* !ose to " se@en9

%e"! #i in M"% to 11 points' Anot#e! inde*, t#e Spect!e+ Million"i!e Kn@esto!

Confdence Knde*, "lso !e"c#ed " f@e9+ont# #i "t 1Q points in M"%'Kn ot#e! "!e"s,t#e @e!% "Zuent "tt!i$uted t#ei! own e7o!ts to t#ei! e*ception"l fn"nci"l well9$ein&' (#e stud% )ound

t#"t FQ pe!cent o) #i net9wo!t# in@esto!s cl"i+ t#"t 8#"!d wo!k w"s " )"cto! in t#ei! o$t"inin&we"lt#, "nd F> pe!cent c!edit 8educ"tion' A$out


7/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle ;/25

situ"tion is 8$ette! tod"% t#"n it w"s one %e"! "&o, "nd QQ pe!cent e*pect it will"&"in i+p!o@e one %e"! )!o+ now' Kn %et "not#e! indic"to! !eGectin& i+p!o@ed

econo+ic conditions, >5 pe!cent o) #i net9wo!t# in@esto!s s"id t#e% "!e willin& to

"ssu+e +o!e si&nifc"nt !isk on " po!tion o) t#ei! in@est+ents' (#is co+p"!es toonl% 2Q pe!cent w#o s"id t#e% we!e willin& to "ssu+e "n% !isks two %e"!s "&o'At%e"!9end 2=1, t#e nu+$e! o) #i net9wo!t# #ouse#olds in t#e 6'S' !e"c#ed "n "ll9ti+e #i o) 1'2>+illion, wit# t#e continued &!owt# in t#e stock +"!ket conside!ed t#e +"in c"use o) t#e !ise, "cco!din&to Spect!e+'


8/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle #ttp://www'econo+ist'co+/news/united9st"tes/21Q=Q2F9s+"ll9$usinesses9)!et9less9"$out9

t"*es9o@e!9!e&ul"tion9!ed9t"pe9$lues//%#

KAN (-N., "n "!c#itect in 3#il"delp#i", !ecentl% went to cit% oEces )o! " pe!+it to $uild " stoop )o! " clients#o+e' (#e cit%, #e le"!ned, #"d ust i+posed new !eui!e+ents: #e would #"@e to &et +"ps )!o+ &"s, elect!ic,

w"te! "nd ot#e! utilities to ensu!e t#e stoop would not distu!$ t#ei! unde!&!ound lines "nd t#en !esu$+it #is

"pplic"tion' A p!ocess #e t#out would t"ke " d"% took +o!e t#"n two weeks' (#"ts not "ll' -t#e! new !ules

!eui!e t#"t #e p!o@e t#"t #is $uilde! #"s &ene!"l li"$ilit%, wo!ke!s co+pens"tion "nd c"! insu!"nce, "nd #"s p"id

"ll #is t"*es' Oou! ti+es " %e"! #e +ust set "side " #"l) d"% to ensu!e #e is p"%in& t#e st"tes "nd cit%s +%!i"d

t"*es co!!ectl%. 6r Toner doesn-* ques*ion *he need +or rules "nd *"#es5 h"*

g"lls him is *he *ime "nd h"ssle involved in complying i*h *hem. The

in+orm"*ion e#is*s "ll over *he pl"ce "nd *he !urden is on me no* 0us* *o

g"*her i* !u* *oE in*erpre* i*. 2-m no* going *o le"ve here !ec"use o+ *his/

!u* *hey-re "ll *hings *h"* could *urn " person o o+ coming here .FA+e!ic"s

st"tes "nd cities #"@e t!"dition"ll% t!ied to "tt!"ct $usinesses $% o7e!in& t#e+ t"* $!e"ks "nd ot#e! c"s#incenti@es' Uet t#e!e +"% $e " +o!e e7ecti@e w"%, "nd one w#ic# puts no st!"in on st!etc#ed $ud&ets: +"ke li)e

si+ple!'(#u+$t"ck, " we$site t#"t +"tc#es custo+e!s to $usinesses, "nd t#e "u7+"n Oound"tion, " t#ink9t"nk,"sks t#ous"nds o) s+"ll $usinesses "nnu"ll% "$out loc"l !eui!e+ents )o! #i!in&, !e&ul"tions, Lonin&, licences,

#e"lt# insu!"nce "nd t!"inin&' (#e% #"@e enou d"t" to co+pile so+ew#"t su$ecti@e4 8$usiness cli+"te &!"des)o! < st"tes "nd ' Kn H"w"ii, licences !eui!e "n "@e!"&e o) ;2>

d"%s o) e*pe!ience "nd educ"tionI in 3enns%l@"ni", 11' .n)o!ce+ent is une@en, too' Ch"nges *o
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21606293-small-businesses-fret-less-about-taxes-over-regulation-red-tape-blueshttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21606293-small-businesses-fret-less-about-taxes-over-regulation-red-tape-blueshttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21606293-small-businesses-fret-less-about-taxes-over-regulation-red-tape-blueshttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21606293-small-businesses-fret-less-about-taxes-over-regulation-red-tape-blues


9/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle F/25

regul"*ions h"ve li**le eec* on economic gro*h in *he shor* runXc%clic"linGuences suc# "s t#e st"te o) t#e #ousin& +"!ket o! t#e )o!tunes o) " p"!ticul"! indust!% #itec# in C"li)o!ni", oil

in (e*"s4 +"tte! +o!e' Bu* in *he long run/ !usiness)+riendliness m"(es "

dierence: one s*udy +ound *h"* s*"*es *h"* r"n( !e**er on indices o+

*"#es/ cos*s "nd regul"*ions en0oy s*ronger 0o! gro*h/ "+*er fl*ering ou*

*he in8uence o+ indus*ry composi*ion "nd *he e"*her. 9lo!"lly/ coun*ries

*h"* r"n( higher in *he 4orld B"n(-s surveys o+ *he e"se o+ doing !usiness

gro +"s*er. $oering !"rriers *o en*ry +or ne !usinesses gives

consumers more choice "nd che"per prices.A &ou!+et9)ood9t!uck )"d $e&"n in 0os An&eleswit# Y2 o!e"n t"cos in 2==/2=12 ?#ttp://news'#e"!tl"nd'o!&/newsp"pe!9

"!ticle/2=12/=Q/=>/"l"sk"9oEci"ls9spe"k9out9"&"inst9new9n"tion"l9oce"n9polic%4

Al"sk" st"te oEci"ls "!e p!essin& t#e -$"+" "d+inist!"tion to e*e!cise !est!"int in i+ple+entin& " new N"tion"l

-ce"n 3olic% t#"t t#!e"tens to s#i)t powe! )!o+ t#e st"tes to t#e )ede!"l &o@e!n+ent' Decisions Mo@e to DCAppe"!in& "t " 6'S' House o) ep!esent"ti@es N"tu!"l esou!ces Co++ittee Oield He"!in& Ap!il in Anc#o!"&e,

st"te oEci"ls oined citiLens "nd ent!ep!eneu!s in e*p!essin& conce!n "n e*ecuti@e o!de! si&ned $% 3!esident

B"!"ck -$"+" l"st su++e! will le"d to " costl% N"*ion"l 7ce"n


10/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1=/25

-ce"n 3olic% will t!"+ple st"te "nd loc"l o@e!sit "nd disp!opo!tion"tel% #"!+ st"tes like Al"sk"' 8?Despite t#e"d+inist!"tions cl"i+s t#"t it will $e t#e +ost t!"nsp"!ent e@e!, t#is new )ede!"l en@i!on+ent"l o@e!l"% is $ein&

de@eloped "nd i+ple+ented wit# no di!ect st"ke#olde! in@ol@e+ent, s"id Uoun&' RNow#e!e in t#e 6nited St"teswill t#e e7ects o) t#e N"tion"l -ce"n 3olic% $e )elt to t#e e*tent t#"t it will in Al"sk"' (#e !e"c# o) t#is ]oce"n polic%

will st!etc# t#!ouout t#e enti!e st"te "nd "7ect "l+ost "n% "cti@it% t#"t !eui!es " )ede!"l pe!+it, Uoun&

e*pl"ined' 8As we will #e"! )!o+ ou! witnesses tod"%, t#e St"tes econo+ic @it"lit% is " di!ect !esult o) ou! "$ilit% to

use ou! n"tu!"l !esou!ces' An% new )ede!"l initi"ti@e t#"t "7ects ou! "$ilit% to use t#ese n"tu!"l !esou!ces will cost

o$s' R(#e "d+inist!"tion cl"i+s t#"t t#is w#ole N"tion"l -ce"n polic% is not#in& +o!e t#"n "n "tte+pt to

coo!din"te )ede!"l "&encies "nd +"ke $ette! pe!+ittin& decisions, Uoun& continued' 8Oo!&i@e +e i) K "+ " little

suspicious w#en t#e )ede!"l &o@e!n+entXt#!ou "n .*ecuti@e -!de!Xdecides to c!e"te " new $u!e"uc!"c% t#"t

will ]#elp us pl"n w#e!e "cti@ities c"n o! c"nnot t"ke pl"ce in ou! w"te!s "nd inl"nd' (#is e7o!t to ]Lone " +"o!it%

o) t#e St"te o) Al"sk" usin& new c!ite!i" "nd new polic% &o"ls will not $e #elp)ul' (#e )"ct t#"t t#is e7o!t will t"ke

pl"ce w#et#e! t#e St"te o) Al"sk" w"nts it to o! not +"kes +e e@en +o!e suspicious' ]Adds 6nce!t"int% "nd

An*iet% ick o&e!s, e*ecuti@e di!ecto! o) t#e esou!ces De@elop+ent Council )o! Al"sk", su++"!iLed t#e

Councils conce!ns "$out too +uc# )ede!"l in@ol@e+ent stiGin& st"te decision9+"kin& "nd o@e!sit' 8(#e

N"*ion"l-ce"n


11/30


do+estic ene!&% policies "nd !e&ul"tions' Kn t#e c"se o) t#e 6nited St"tes, oil "nd &"soline p!ices "lso inco!po!"te "8!e&ul"to!% !isk p!e+iu+' Kn ot#e! wo!ds, i) t#e +"!ket is not confdent t#"t t#e )ede!"l &o@e!n+ent will !e+o@e

o$st"cles to oil "nd &"s p!oduction in t#e ul) o) Me*ico "nd elsew#e!e, ene!&% t!"de!s will inco!po!"te t#is !isk,coupled wit# p!ospecti@e cost esti+"tes )o! !e&ul"to!% co+pli"nce, into cu!!ent t#inkin& "nd )utu!e p!ice st!uctu!es'

H- -OOSH-. .60A(K-NS AOO.C( 3-D6C(K-N AND 3KC.S -utput )!o+ t#e ul) o) Me*ico loo+s l"!&e in

te!+s o) tot"l 6'S' oil p!oduction, in tu!n i+p"ctin& t#e $!o"de! p!ice o) c!ude' 3!io! to t#e M"condo $lowout in t#e

sp!in& o) 2=1=, t#e ul) o) Me*ico "ccounted )o! "$out 2F o) t#e n"tions do+estic oil p!oduction' As " !esult o)

t#e deep w"te! d!illin& +o!"to!iu+ i+posed )ollowin& t#e $lowout, output )!o+ t#e ul) d!opped s#"!pl%' But since

t#e econo+% w"s in !ecession "nd t#e tot"l "+ount o) oil spilled w"s eui@"lent to "$out nine d"%s wo!t# o)

consu+ption, t#e!e w"s " ne&li&i$le i+p"ct on t#e p!ices o) c!ude oil "nd &"soline' egul"*ory

decisions, #owe@e!, c"n h"vepro+oundimp"c*s onoil prices' #en 3!esident eo!&e ' Bus#li)ted t#e d!illin& +o!"to!iu+ on t#e -ute! Continent"l S#el) -CS4 o7 A+e!ic"s co"sts in 2==59d"% p!ice "@e!"&e )o! c!ude t#"t w"s down 12 pe!cent, o! Y1Q pe! $"!!el' Kn cont!"st,

hen3!esident 7!"m" ended *he deep)"*er drilling mor"*oriumon -cto$e! 1,2=1=, p!ice d!ops si+il"! to t#ose )ollowin& t#e end o) t#e 2==< -CS +o!"to!iu+ did not occu!' (#e l"ck o) c#"n&e

w"s due l"!&el% to t#e 3!esidents "cco+p"n%in& decl"!"tion o) new s")et% !ules to &o@e!n ul) "cti@it%' Though

t#ese new regul"*ions ere no* de*"iled "* *he *ime/ *he m"r(e* +ores" "

dr"n)ou* period o+ cl"rifc"*ion "nd uneven implemen*"*ion/ i*h *he

po*en*i"l *o neg"*ively imp"c* 9ul+ o+ 6e#ico deep)"*er oper"*ions. The

U.S. regul"*ory ris( premium, in ot#e! wo!ds, h"d !ecome signifc"n*/re8ec*ing " l"c( o+ confdencein t#e o@e!"ll "$ilit% o) !e&ul"to!s to "llow d!illin& "nd p!oduction to!etu!n uickl% to p!e9M"condo le@els' (#e ")te!+"t# o) t#e +o!"to!iu+ in w#ic# !e&ul"to!% const!"ints continue to

stiGe opti+"l p!oduction le@els is indeed #"@in& " +e"su!"$le i+p"ct on output )!o+ t#e ul) o) Me*ico "s well "son oil "nd &"soline p!ices' Acco!din& to t#e .ne!&% Kn)o!+"tion Ad+inist!"tion .KA4, ul) p!oduction )ell )!o+ 1'55

+illion $"!!els pe! d"% +$/d4 in 2=1= to 1'2 +$/d in 2=11' (#is %e"!, t#e .KA esti+"tes ul) output will )"ll )u!t#e!

to 1'2 +$/d' But two %e"!s "&o, $e)o!e t#e +o!"to!iu+, t#e .KA p!edicted t#"t p!oduction would !e"c# 1';Q +$/d

t#is %e"!' (#"t +e"ns t#e di7e!ence $etween p!oected "nd "ctu"l p!oduction in t#e ul) o) Me*ico is close to =

pe!cent see c#"!t4' H"d p!oduction )!o+ t#e ul) o) Me*ico $een = pe!cent #ie! t#is %e"!, t#e !ecent !ise in oil

"nd &"soline p!ices would likel% #"@e $een +o!e li+ited' #"t went w!on& -nce t#e +o!"to!iu+ w"s tec#nic"ll%

li)ted, it w"s !epl"ced $% " de )"cto 8pe!+ito!iu+ in w#ic# t#e nu+$e! o) deep9 "nd s#"llow9w"te! d!illin& pe!+its

issued d!opped d!"+"tic"ll%' Kt w"snt until Oe$!u"!% 2 d"%s ")te! M"condo4 t#"t t#e Knte!io!

Dep"!t+ent "pp!o@ed t#e f!st new pe!+it )o! "n oil co+p"n% to d!ill in +o!e t#"n 5== )eet o) w"te!' Not

su!p!isin&l%, w#ile do+estic c!ude oil p!oduction inc!e"sed o@e!"ll in 2=11, p!oduction in )ede!"l w"te!s in t#e ul)

o) Me*ico continued to )"ll t#!ou 2=11, declinin& $% 2=,=== $"!!els pe! d"% see c#"!t4' A C0-S. 0-- A( 60O

DK00KN AND 3-D6C(K-N (-DAU At f!st $lus#, " nu+$e! o) indic"to!s see+ to su&&est t#"t e*plo!"tion "nd

p!oduction "cti@it% in t#e ul) o) Me*ico is !etu!nin& to p!e9+o!"to!iu+ le@els, "nd t#e "d+inist!"tion #"s e"&e!l%

t"ken c!edit in !ecent +ont#s )o! inc!e"ses in do+estic oil "nd &"s p!oduction' -ne indic"to! o)ten cited to $olste!contentions o) !o$ust ul) ene!&% "cti@it% is t#e nu+$e! o) !i&s ope!"tin& in t#e $"sin' At t#e ti+e o) M"condo,

deep9w"te! d!illin& !i&s we!e ope!"tin& in t#e 6'S' ul) o) Me*ico' (went%9)ou! we!e su$seuentl% idled $% t#e+o!"to!iu+' 3!io! to t#e +o!"to!iu+, deep9w"te! !i&s we!e le"sed out )o! Y25=,=== to Y5==,=== " d"%' A$sent t#"t

!e@enue st!e"+, +"n% !i&s dep"!ted t#e ul) to d!ill in +o!e welco+in& o@e!se"s p!ospects &o@e!ned $% +o!ep!edict"$le !e&ul"tion' B% one count, in J"nu"!% 2=11, onl% eit Go"tin& !i&s !e+"ined in t#e ul)' Kn !ecent

+ont#s, #owe@e!, +o!e !i&s #"@e $een spotted in t#e ul) t#"n #"s $een t#e c"se )o! t#e p"st )ew %e"!s' eute!s

!ecentl% !epo!ted t#"t eit deep9w"te! d!illin& !i&s "!e e*pected to oin t#e Geet in t#e ul) o) Me*ico t#is %e"!' K)

t!ue, t#is would $!in& t#e tot"l nu+$e! o) !i&s in t#e $"sin ust s#o!t o) w#e!e it w"s $e)o!e t#e M"condo $lowout'

Acco!din& to one !ecent count, t#e!e we!e = deep9w"te! +o$ile o7s#o!e d!illin& units M-D6s4 in t#e ul) o)

Me*ico "s o) e"!l% M"% 2=12, co+p"!ed to p!io! to t#e +o!"to!iu+' .ne!&% indust!% o$se!@e!s "lso e*pect to see

1= o! +o!e "ddition"l deep9w"te! M-D6s "dded to t#e ul) in 2=12' But w#"t "!e !i&s in t#e ul) o) Me*ico doin&

t#ese d"%s Acco!din& to t#e B"ke! Hues count o) "cti@e !i&s, in t#e two +ont#s p!io! to t#e deep9w"te!

+o!"to!iu+, t#e!e w"s "n "@e!"&e o) 2; 8"cti@e !i&s in t#e ul), wit# 8"cti@e defned "s !i&s en&"&ed in d!illin&9!el"ted "cti@ities, "s opposed to +"inten"nce, co+pletions, wo!ko@e!s, etc' As o) M"% 1, t#e B"ke! Hues count

indic"ted " tot"l o) 1< "cti@e !i&s in t#e ul), " le@el t#"t )"lls )"! s#o!t o) p!e+o!"to!iu+ nu+$e!s' Kn ot#e! wo!ds,

t#e "cti@ities !i&s "!e en&"&ed in tod"% "!e conside!"$l% less p!oducti@e t#"n w"s t#e c"se p!io! to t#e +o!"to!iu+'Be&innin& in e"!l% 2=12, t#e "d+inist!"tion "lso $e&"n toutin& t#e nu+$e! o) pe!+it "pp!o@"ls t#"t #"d $een

issued )o! uniue wells in t#e deep w"te!s o) t#e ul), +e"nin& wells )o! w#ic# cont"in+ent pl"ns "!e !eui!edunde! post9M"condo !e&ul"tions to p!o@ide li@e inte!@entions o! cont"in le"k"&e "s t#e !esult o) " well9cont!ol

incident' B% e"!l% M"!c#, t#e "d+inist!"tion cl"i+ed to #"@e "pp!o@ed pe!+its )o! F> uniue wells !eui!in&cont"in+ent since t#e M"condo $lowout' Howe@e!, close! sc!utin% !e@e"ls t#"t onl% 2 o) t#e F> pe!+its "pp!o@ed

we!e )o! uniue new wells specifc"ll% pe!+itted to !e"c# #%d!oc"!$ons' (#e ot#e! Q2 pe!+its "pplied eit#e! to p!e9

+o!"to!iu+ wells +e"nin& !e@ised pl"ns co+p"nies we!e !eui!ed to su$+it to +eet t#e c#"n&ed !e&ul"to!%


12/30


!eui!e+ents4 o! included pe!+its t#"t onl% "llow s#"llow $"tc# set dept#s, +e"nin& "ddition"l pe!+its "!e !eui!edto !e"c# tot"l dept# )o! #%d!oc"!$ons' (#is fndin& ec#oes " 2=11 KHS C.A !epo!t, est"!tin& t#e .n&ine, t#"t

!e@e"led, 8Kn t#e si*+ont# pe!iod )ollowin& t#e li)tin& o) t#e +o!"to!iu+, "l+ost F= pe!cent o) deepw"te!e*plo!"tion pl"n "pp!o@"ls "nd +o!e t#"n $illion w"s &ene!"ted in

new o7s#o!e le"se $ids' (#"t f&u!e #"s notice"$l% d!opped e"c# %e"!, to Y1'1 $illion du!in& t#e !ecession"!% %e"!

o) 2==F, YF;F +illion in 2=1=, "nd t#en " p"lt!% YQ +illion in 2=11 "s t#e Ad+inist!"tion +"n"&ed onl% one le"se

s"le du!in& t#e enti!e %e"!' Kn ot#e! wo!ds, "s $ud&et"!% conce!ns #"@e inc!e"sin&l% t"ken cente! st"&e in 6'S'

politic"l discou!se, t#e Ad+inist!"tion #"s "+"ssed " l"ckluste! !eco!d o) #oldin& o7s#o!e le"se s"les, )u!t#e!

e*"ce!$"tin& $ud&et s#o!t)"lls' (#e conseuences o) t#e Ad+inist!"tions !eco!d on le"se s"les will "lso $e )elt in


13/30


t#e lon&e! te!+, "s le"se s"les p!o@ide t#e )ound"tion )o! new e*plo!"tion "nd de@elop+ent t#"t le"ds to )utu!e oil"nd &"s p!oduction' ."c# le"se t"kes %e"!s "nd +illions o! $illions o) doll"!s to )ull% de@elop' Co+p"nies +ust

unde!t"ke " len&t#% "nd costl% p!ocess in@ol@in& &eolo&ic"l +"ppin&, testin&, "nd d!illin& e*plo!"to!% wells $e)o!ep!oduction c"n $e&in' Kn s#o!t, t#ese le"ses "!e t#e necess"!% p!elude to de@elopin& " t!"ct o) l"nd "nd $!in&in&

ene!&% to +"!ket' C-NC06SK-N: (H. .60A(-U KS 3.MK6M KM3-S.S A S6CHA. -N 6'S' -K0 AND

AS-0KN. 3KC.S #ile citin& t#e $enefts o) "n 8"ll9o)9t#e9"$o@e ene!&% st!"te&% +"% se!@e s#o!t9te!+ politic"l

i+pe!"ti@es )o! t#e Ad+inist!"tion, +o!e sop#istic"ted indust!% o$se!@e!s, includin& "n"l%sts, in@esto!s, insu!e!s,

"nd t#e co+p"nies t#e+sel@es, know $ette!' The op"ci*y o+ *he oshore regul"*oryprocess serves *o erode !usiness confdence in +u*ure 9ul+ o+ 6e#ico

produc*ion/ "dding signifc"n* up"rd pressure *o *he U.S. regul"*ory ris(

premium.(#e !ecent d!op in oil "nd &"soline p!ices c"n $e e*pl"ined $% " slowin& wo!ld econo+%, "n e"sin&o) tensions wit# K!"n, "nd inc!e"sed p!oduction )!o+ S"udi A!"$i" "nd ot#e! -3.C count!ies' Most o) .u!ope #"s

slipped $"ck into !ecession, 6'S' econo+ic !eco@e!% !e+"ins #"ltin&, "nd e@en )"st9&!owin& count!ies like C#in" "nd

Kndi" "!e !eco!din& lowe! !"tes o) econo+ic &!owt#, t#e!e$% +utin& &lo$"l ene!&% de+"nd' None o) t#ese

de@elop+ents, #owe@e!, #"s "7ected t#e 6'S' !e&ul"to!% !isk p!e+iu+' 3ut di7e!entl%, "$sent unce!t"int% "$out

t#e cost "nd ti+e9)!"+e o) "cui!in& !e&ul"to!% "pp!o@"l )o! deep w"te! d!illin& in t#e ul) o) Me*ico, oil "nd

&"soline p!ices would $e e@en lowe!' (#e outlook )o! oil "nd &"s p!oduction in t#e ul) o) Me*ico !e+"ins +u!k%'

Comp"nies m"(ing m"ssive inves*men*s o+ c"pi*"l "nd *ime require

predic*"!ili*y "nd confdence *h"* produc*ion go"ls c"n !e me*. 2+

comp"nies fnd i* incre"singly diLcul* *o *ell *heir on e#ecu*ives "nd

!o"rd mem!ers hen pro0ec*s "re going *o !e "pproved/ *his uncer*"in*yill "ec* decisions "!ou* here *o pl"ce +u*ure c"pi*"l inves*men*.

2nves*ors need re"son"!le predic*"!ili*y or *hey ill simply loo( elsehere

+or more invi*ing oppor*uni*ies' K) ul) p!oduction is to !e"c# le@els t#"t eu"l its t!ue potenti"l int#e +ont#s, %e"!s, "nd dec"des to co+e, t#e !e&ul"to!% sp#e!e +ust deli@e! on its o$li&"tion to p!o@ide "

p!edict"$le !e@iew "nd "pp!o@"l p!ocess'

Une#pec*ed egul"*ions Coun*er or*s *o 2mpedimen*s/

educing Business Confdence

Dr ,e"*her Smi*h -13D! He"t#e! S+it#, Aust!"li"s 2= S#e!p", 8Aust!"li"nS#e!p" D! S+it#, Aust!"li"s 2= 3!esidenc%: Buildin& Knte!n"tion"l .cono+ic

0e"de!s#ip, Add!ess to t#e 0ee u"n Uew Sc#ool o) 3u$lic 3olic%, Sin&"po!e 2= M"%,

2=1>,#ttps://www'&2='o!&/news/t!"nsc!ipts/"ust!"li"ns#e!p"d!s+it#"ust!"li"s&2=p!

esidenc%$uildin&inte!n"tion"l4

Coun*ries "re or(ing *o remove impedimen*s *o priv"*e sec*or

inves*men*/p"!ticul"!l% in in)!"st!uctu!e' ;or e#"mple/ ho *o reduce regul"*ory

!urdens on !usiness/ improve predic*"!ili*y o+ policy "nd regul"*ion/ "nd

reduce "pprov"l del"ys


14/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1>/25

nvironmen*"l egul"*ions "re !"d +or Sm"ll Business) i*

r"ises *he cos* o+ living/ cu*s hiring/ "nd is coun*erproduc*ive

9r"ves n&dep' S"+ !"@es is t#e "nkin& Me+$e! o) t#e S+"ll BusinessCo++ittee "nd " co9c#"i! o) t#e u!"l A+e!ic" Solutions !oup, w#ic# !ecentl%#osted " )o!u+ to e*"+ine t#e unp!ecedented, o@e!!e"c#in&, "nd $u!denso+e

!e&ul"tions .3A is t!%in& to i+pose on )"!+e!s, !"nc#e!s, "nd s+"ll $usinesses,8(#e A& Minute: .3As -@e!!e"c# Hu!ts S+"ll Businesses, (#e A& Minute is "nkin&

Me+$e! 0uc"ss weekl% !"dio "dd!ess t#"t is !ele"sed e"c# (uesd"% )!o+ t#e HouseA&!icultu!e Co++ittee epu$lic"ns, #ttps://"&!icultu!e'#ouse'&o@/"udio/"&9+inute9

ep"s9o@e!!e"c#9#u!ts9s+"ll9$usinesses4

RAs " s+"ll $usiness owne! "nd )"!+e!, K "+ well "w"!e o) t#e &!owin& +ount"in o) !e&ul"tions t#"t st"nd in t#e

w"% o) doin& $usiness in !u!"l A+e!ic"' Kn )"ct, t#e S+"ll Business Ad+inist!"tions -Ece o)

Ad@oc"c% !ecentl% !epo!ted t#"t s+"ll f!+s p"% ne"!l% Y,=== +o!e pe! e+plo%ee

t#"n l"!&e! f!+s to co+pl% wit# &o@e!n+ent !e&ul"tions' R(#e cost o)

en@i!on+ent"l regul"*ions +"lls especi"lly he"vy on sm"ll frms/ hich p"y=3 percen* more *h"n l"rge frms *o comply. And/

t#is d"t" doesnt e@ent"ke into "ccount t#e tid"l w"@e o) !e&ul"tions to co+e' (#e -$"+" "d+inist!"tion

"nd M"o!it% le"de!s "!e cu!!entl% t#!e"tenin& " n"tion"l ene!&% t"*, unp!ecedentedc"!$on !est!ictions, "nd wo!kin& to d!"+"tic"ll% e*p"nd t#e .n@i!on+ent"l

3!otection A&enc%s .3A4 "ut#o!it% o@e! "i! "nd w"te!' RA )ew weeks "&o, K oined t#e u!"l

A+e!ic" Solutions !oup in #ostin& " )o!u+ to e*"+ine t#e e7ects t#"t e*cessi@e environmen*"l

regul"*ions#"@e on !u!"l co++unities' -u! )o!u+ $!out e*pe!ts )!o+ "c!oss t#e count!% to&et#e! to

discuss t#e +"n% w"%s t#"t environmen*"l overregul"*ion like t#isis coun*erproduc*ive

"nd (ills 0o! cre"*ion' -u! e*pe!ts co++ents "nd "n"l%ses !eite!"ted t#e )"ct t#"t .3A

regul"*ions dev"s*"*e sm"ll !usinesses/ r"ise *he cos* o+ living/ "nd +orce

employers *o cu* hiring. RSo+et#in& +ust $e done' K know t#"t e c"n fnd "ys *o

pro*ec* our environmen* "nd secure energy independence i*hou*

punishing *he people ho run *he !usinesses "nd cul*iv"*e *he l"nds *h"*

+uel our communi*ies "nd +eed our +"milies ' Be)o!e +o@in& )o!w"!d wit# cu!!ent .3Ainiti"ti@es "nd !el"ted le&isl"tion, K #ope t#"t Con&!ess "nd t#e "d+inist!"tion will f!st e*"+ine t#e @e!% !e"l i+p"ctt#ese initi"ti@es could #"@e on !u!"l A+e!ic"'R


15/30


2n*ern"l $in( #*ensionsBusiness confdence (ey *o economy

Jirchho "nd ,egen!"ugh 3Sue i!c##o7 is cu!!entl% " !epo!te! )o! t#e Bostonlo$es "s#in&ton $u!e"u co@e!in& t"*es, $ud&et, "nd entitle+ent p!o&!"+s suc# "s Soci"l Secu!it%

"nd Medic"!e' B"!$"!" H"&en$"u w"s t#e Senio! Medi" el"tions Speci"list "t t#e Oede!"l ese!@e

Bo"!d "nd #"s !epo!ted )o! t#e 6SA (-DAU )o! o@e! ; %e"!s' 8#"ts wo!!%in& $usiness Confdence

e!odes "c!oss indust!ies 6SA (-DAU F/1>/2==>,#ttp://www'us"tod"%'co+/educ"te/colle&e/c"!ee!s/news12'#t+//%#

R(#e!es " lot o) "n*iet%,R s"%s Bus#e%, p!esident o) Atl"nt"9$"sed 3-S o!ld, w#ic# sells tec# euip+ent, suc# "s

$"!9code !e"de!s, touc#9sc!een +onito!s "nd !eceipt p!inte!s' Business inves*men* "nd hiring

"re (ey *o sus*"ined economic gro*h/ "s consumer spending gro*h

slos +rom i*s he"dy p"ce. 4hile corpor"*e prof*s "nd spending h"ve

r"mped up/ economis*s "re nervous "!ou* one (ey elemen* )) confdence .Business confdence #"s e!oded since sp!in&, "cco!din& to se@e!"l su!@e%s' -n Mond"%, econo+ic consultin& f!+

.cono+%'co+ s"id its weekl% su!@e% o) $usiness owne!s s#owed declines we!e widesp!e"d, $ot# &eo&!"p#ic"ll% "nd

"c!oss indust!ies' (#e 6'S' inde* is o7 25 )!o+ its pe"k e"!lie! t#is su++e!' ,o !usiness

e#ecu*ives see *he orld is (ey +or *he economy !ec"use i* c"n in8uencedecisions on hiring "nd inves*ing .Ne!@ousness is likel% one !e"son #i!in& #"s $een p"tc#% t#is

%e"!, spikin& in M"!c# $ut &!owin& less !"pidl% since t#en' 0"und!% list o) conce!ns Bus#e% "nd sever"lot#e!

sm"ll)!usiness oners s"y " l"undry lis* o+ concerns "re m"(ing *hem

more s(i**ish "!ou* *he economy/ including uncer*"in*y "!ou* *he ou*come

o+ *he elec*ion "nd *"# policy/ rising he"l*h c"re cos*s/ incre"sed energy

prices/ " groing +eder"l !udge* defci*/ "n e#pec*ed !ump up in in*eres*

r"*es/ 8uc*u"*ions in s*oc( prices/ orries "!ou* *he "r in 2r"q "nd *he

*hre"* o+ *errorism.RUou ust dont know,R s"%s illi"+ Mo!eno, di!ecto! o) s"les "nd +"!ketin& "tOi!e2i!e, " wi!eless Knte!net p!o@ide! in Modesto, C"li)', w#o s"%s const"nt ups "nd downs in oEci"l &o@e!n+ent

econo+ic d"t" "!e "n "dded )!ust!"tion, +"kin& it diEcult )o! $usinesses to &et " )eel )o! t#e econo+%' #ile

$usiness c"pit"l spendin& is up )!o+ 2==, Q1 top econo+ists in " +id9Au&ust 6SA (-DAU poll !educed t#ei!

)o!ec"st )o! t#e p"ce o) &!owt# in t#"t "!e" t#is %e"!' "ins #"@e $een concent!"ted in co+pute! euip+ent "nd

so)tw"!e, w#ile so+e f!+s "!e st"!tin& to $uild une*pected in@ento!ies in ot#e! "!e"s' -Ece const!uction is in t#e

dold!u+s' So+e $usiness spendin& is $ein& p!opelled $% soon9to9e*pi!e )ede!"l t"* $!e"ks, "llowin& f!+s to w!ite

o7 " c#unk o) t#e cost o) new euip+ent'


16/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1Q/25

+o!e confdent "$out t#e econo+%' #ile t#e inde* s#owed "n i+p!o@e+ent in #i!in& e*pect"tions, e*ecuti@eslowe!ed t#ei! )o!ec"st )o! o@e!"ll econo+ic "cti@it%, le"@in& " +i*ed pictu!e' Kn line wit# " !ecent Oede!"l ese!@e

!epo!t t#"t s#owed "n inc!e"se in $usiness $o!!owin&, S"!" Mikut", CO- o) 0e"de!s B"nk in -"k B!ook, Kll', #"s seen" !ise in lo"n @olu+e "s f!+s seek to $u% new $uildin&s, "dd euip+ent o! #"@e +o!e c"s# on #"nd' R(#e!es " lot

o) pent9up de+"nd,R Mikut" s"%s' Re!e @e!% opti+istic'R "ee@ D#"w"n, #e"d o) t#e )o!ec"stin& cente! "t t#e J'

M"ck o$inson Sc#ool o) Business "t t#e 6ni@e!sit% o) eo!&i", s"%s w#ile s+"ll $usinesses #"@e picked up

e*p"nsion "nd #i!in&, t#e% c"nt do it "lone' >6"ny corpor"*ions "re si**ing on *heir h"nds/

unilling *o *"(e *he ris( "nd hire *he *hous"nds o+ or(ers *hey ill need*o e#p"nd. The confdence *h"* defned *he 1@@Ks is conspicuously "!sen*

"nd sorely needed/> Dh""n s"id in " recen* +orec"s* on *he 9eorgi"

economy.

BiPcon is (ey *o preven* economic coll"pse resul*ing +rom "

l"c( o+ inves*men*

Bos*on (#o+"s Boston, Bl"ck .nte!p!ise, 8Confdence is ke%: econo+ist citest#e i+po!t"nce o) $usiness outlook to !eco@e!% 9 (#e .cono+% P Uou,

#ttp://fnd"!ticles'co+/p/"!ticles/+i+1Q5/isQ/"iF55=5= %e"!s, *he 2nde# o+ $e"ding conomic 2ndic"*ors Q*he

me"sure used *o g"uge *he +u*ure he"l*h o+ *he economyR h"s declined +or

+our consecu*ive mon*hs. 4hy is *he economy so "nemic 7ne m"0or

re"son is declining consumer "nd !usiness confdence. (#ink o) it t#is w"%: Suppose%ou decide to +"ke " +"o! pu!c#"se, suc# "s " #ouse o! "uto+o$ile' K) t#e p!ice #"s $een dete!+ined, two

"ddition"l )"cto!s "!e likel% to f&u!e p!o+inentl% in %ou! decision to +"ke t#e pu!c#"se' (#e f!st )"cto! is t#e

inte!est !"te, w#ic# is not#in& +o!e t#"n t#e cost o) $o!!owin& +one%' The second +"c*or is ho

confden* you "re "!ou* your +u*ure e"rnings.Oo! e*"+ple, i+ you "re

concerned "!ou* 0o! securi*y/ you "re no* li(ely *o m"(e *he purch"se/ no

m"**er ho lo in*eres* r"*es migh* !e. The s"me logic holds +or !usiness

oners deciding he*her *o under*"(e " ne inves*men*' #ile inte!est !"tes "!ei+po!t"nt $ec"use t#e% "7ect t#e tot"l !etu!n on c"pit"l in@ested, i+ !usiness oners "re

pessimis*ic "!ou* +u*ure economic "c*ivi*y/ even lo in*eres* r"*es ill no*

!e "**r"c*ive enough *o m"(e *hem inves*.

2nves*or confdence is (ey *o *he US economy.


17/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1;/25

n"tion, we need to "ccele!"te ou! e7o!ts to !e"c# "&!ee+ent on " set o) co++on &lo$"l "ccountin& st"nd"!ds'

es*oring inves*or confdence is p"r"moun*/> concluded M!' Sod"

Business Confdence is (ey *o economic gro*h) i* incre"ses

inves*men* spending/ 0o!s/ "nd "cceler"*es 9D< 9ro*h

NA27< -18e% to .cono+ic !owt# Mo!e Business Confdence, NAK-3, t#eCo++e!ci"l e"l .st"te De@elop+ent Associ"tion, is t#e le"din& o!&"niL"tion )o!de@elope!s, owne!s "nd in@esto!s o) oEce, indust!i"l, !et"il "nd +i*ed9use !e"l

est"te' NAK-3 co+p!ises 15,===[ +e+$e!s "nd p!o@ides st!on& "d@oc"c%,

educ"tion "nd $usiness oppo!tunities t#!ou " powe!)ul No!t# A+e!ic"n netwo!k,#ttp://www'n"iop'o!&/en/.90i$!"!%/Business9(!ends/e%9to9.cono+ic9!owt#9Mo!e9

Business9Confdence'"sp*4

The U.S. economy is groing/ !u* h"* i* needs *o improve more quic(ly is

gre"*er confdence on *he p"r* o+ *he !usiness sec*or, "cco!din& to " new !ese"!c#

!epo!t $% Cus#+"n P "kefeld titled 6'S' .cono+ic 6pd"te: e"d% )o! !owt#' (#e !epo!t "sse!ted t#"t once

!usinesses "re more confden*, inves*men* spending ill "cceler"*e/ "s ill

hiring. Th"* ould help *he economy "cceler"*e +rom *od"y-s 1. *o Mpercen* 9D< gro*h r"*e *o "round *o . percen*.

US (ey *o glo!"l economy

C"ploe @D"@id C"ploe, C.- o) t#e Sin&"po!e9inco!po!"ted A+e!ic"n Cent!e )o!Applied 0i$e!"l A!ts "nd Hu+"nities in Asi", 8Oocus Still on A+e!ic" to 0e"d lo$"l

eco@e!% Ap!il 2==F, online

#ile supe!fci"ll% sensi$le, t#is @iew is deepl% p!o$le+"tic' (o $e&in wit#, it i&no!es t#e )"ct t#"t *he glo!"l

economy h"sin )"ct !een ?Americ")cen*red? +or more *h"n =K ye"rs.

Coun*ries9 C#in", J"p"n, C"n"d", B!"Lil, o!e", Me*ico "nd so on 9 ei*her sell *o *he US or *hey

sell *o coun*ries *h"* sell *o *he US. (o put it si+pl%, M! -$"+" doesnt see+ to unde!st"nd t#"t

*here is no o*her engine +or *he orld economy ) "nd h"sn?* !een +or *he

l"s* si# dec"des. 2+ *he US does no* drive glo!"l economic gro*h/ gro*h

is no* going *o h"ppen' (#us, 6S policies *o de"l i*h *he curren* crisis "re

cri*ic"l no* 0us* domes*ic"lly/ !u* "lso *o *he en*ire orld' (#is s%ste+ #"s &ene!"ll%$een "d@"nt"&eous )o! "ll conce!ned' A+e!ic" &"ined ce!t"in #isto!ic"ll% unp!ecedented $enefts, $ut t#e s%ste+

"lso en"$led p"!ticip"tin& count!ies 9 f!st in este!n .u!ope "nd J"p"n, "nd l"te!, +"n% in t#e (#i!d o!ld 9 to

"c#ie@e und!e"+t9o) p!ospe!it%' At t#e s"+e ti+e, *his deep in*er)connec*ion !e*een *he

US "nd *he res* o+ *he orld "lso e#pl"ins ho *he coll"pse o+ " rel"*ively

sm"ll sec*or o+ *he US economy ) ?su!)prime? housing/ lo&"!it#+ic"ll% e*ponenti"lised

$% "ll St!eets in&enious c#ic"ne!% 9 h"s c"sc"ded in*o *he ors* glo!"l economic

crisis since *he 9re"* Depression.(o put it si+pl%, M! -$"+" doesnt see+ to unde!st"nd t#"t

t#e!e is no ot#e! en&ine )o! t#e wo!ld econo+% 9 "nd #"snt $een )o! t#e l"st si* dec"des' K) t#e 6S does not d!i@e&lo$"l econo+ic &!owt#, &!owt# is not &oin& to #"ppen' (#us, 6S policies to de"l wit# t#e cu!!ent c!isis "!e c!itic"l

not ust do+estic"ll%, $ut "lso to t#e enti!e wo!ld' Conseuentl%, it is " +"tte! o) &lo$"l conce!n t#"t t#e -$"+""d+inist!"tion see+s to $e )ollowin& J"p"ns +odel )!o+ t#e 1FF=s: "llowin& +"o! $"nks to "@oid decl"!in&

+"ssi@e losses openl% "nd t!"nsp"!entl%, "nd so pe!petu"tin& Lo+$ie $"nks 9 tec#nic"ll% "li@e $ut in !e"lit% de"d'As "n"l%sts like No$el l"u!e"tes Josep# Sti&litL "nd 3"ul !u&+"n #"@e pointed out, t#e "d+inist!"tions

unwillin&ness to con)!ont 6S $"nks is t#e +"in !e"son w#% t#e% "!e continuin& t#ei! inc!e"sin&l% ine*plic"$le c!edit

)!eeLe, t#us !"@"&in& t#e A+e!ic"n "nd &lo$"l econo+ies' (e"+ -$"+" see+s !eluct"nt to "cknowled&e t#e e*tent

to w#ic# its policies "t #o+e "!e )"ilin& not ust t#e!e $ut "!ound t#e wo!ld "s well' #ic# !"ises t#e uestion: K) t#e

6S c"nt o! wont o! doesnt w"nt to $e t#e &lo$"l econo+ic en&ine, w#ic# count!% will (#e o$@ious "nswe! is

C#in"' But t#"t is un!e"listic )o! t#!ee !e"sons' Oi!st, Chin"?s economic he"l*h is more *ied *o
http://www.naiop.org/en/E-Library/Business-Trends/Key-to-Economic-Growth-More-Business-Confidence.aspxhttp://www.naiop.org/en/E-Library/Business-Trends/Key-to-Economic-Growth-More-Business-Confidence.aspxhttp://www.naiop.org/en/E-Library/Business-Trends/Key-to-Economic-Growth-More-Business-Confidence.aspxhttp://www.naiop.org/en/E-Library/Business-Trends/Key-to-Economic-Growth-More-Business-Confidence.aspx


18/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1


19/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 1F/25

Business confdence is essen*i"l +or economic recovery

B2AC MK1BKAC, Toice o) -.CD Business, 8.KNO-CKN (H. CAS. O- 3KTA(.S.C(-90.D -(H, KNT.S(M.N( AND J-BS Discussion 3"pe! )o! t#e

Consult"tion wit# t#e -.CD 0i"ison Co++ittee, 2=1,#ttp://www'$i"c'o!&/st"te+ents/#ile@el/BKACSt"te+entto0CM2=1>.N'pd)4

Since *he onse* o+ *he MKK')K@ glo!"l fn"nci"l "nd economic

crisis/ B2AC-s mess"ge h"s !een cle"r: priv"*e sec*or)led

gro*h is essen*i"l +or " s*rong "nd sus*"ined recovery o+ our

economies. 4e con*inue *o emph"sise *he need +or consis*en*

economic policies *o ins*ill confdence "nd *o encour"ge

comp"nies *o inves*/ innov"*e "nd cre"*e more employmen*.

The glo!"l economy is reli"n* on s*rong US gro*h

4"** %&@0ouise "tt, t#e Associ"ted 3!ess, 8C#in": Kts up to 6'S' to d!i@e &lo$"lecono+%, 6SA (od"%, Jul% F, 2=1>,#ttp://www'us"tod"%'co+/sto!%/+one%/$usiness/2=1>/=;/=F/c#in"9us9&lo$"l9

econo+%/12F


20/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 2=/25

2mp"c* #*ensionsconomic coll"pse c"uses nucle"r "r/ *errorism/ "nd

proli+er"*ion

,"rris "nd Burros @M"t#ew, 3#D .u!ope"n Histo!% "t C"+$!id&e,

counselo! in t#e N"tion"l Kntelli&ence Council NKC4 "nd Jenni)e!, +e+$e! o) t#eNKCs 0on& "n&e An"l%sis 6nit 8e@isitin& t#e Outu!e: eopolitic"l .7ects o) t#e

Oin"nci"l C!isis #ttp://www'ci"onet'o!&/ou!n"ls/tw/@2i2/)==1Q1;


21/30


"nd "rning o+ "n impending nucle"r "**"c(. (#e l"ck o) st!"te&ic dept# in nei$o!in&

st"tes like Ks!"el, s#o!t w"!nin& "nd +issile Git ti+es, "nd unce!t"int% o) K!"ni"n intentions +"% pl"ce more

+ocus on preemp*ion r"*her *h"n de+ense/ po*en*i"lly le"ding *o esc"l"*ing

crises. Types o+ con8ic* *h"* *he orld con*inues *o e#perience/ such "s

over resources/ could reemerge/ p"r*icul"rly i+ pro*ec*ionism gros "nd

*here is " resor* *o neo)merc"n*ilis* pr"c*ices.


22/30


B"!"ck -$"+" "d+inist!"tion "nd re"liPe *h"* economics "nd securi*y "re

in*er*inedin +ost o) t#e c!itic"l c#"llen&es we )"ce' A disillusioned !isin& powe! Oou! "!e"s in Asi" +e!itp"!ticul"! "ttention, "lt#ou so )"! t#e cu!!ent fn"nci"l c!isis #"s not c#"n&ed Asi"s )und"+ent"l st!"te&icpictu!e' C#in" is not !epl"cin& t#e 6S "s !e&ion"l #e&e+on, since t#e le"de!s#ip in Beiin& is too ne!@ous "$out t#e

politic"l i+plic"tions o) t#e fn"nci"l c!isis "t #o+e to "ctu"ll% pl"% " le"din& !ole in sol@in& it inte!n"tion"ll%'

3!edictions t#"t t#e 6S will $e $!out to its knees $ec"use C#in" is t#e le"din& #olde! o) 6S de$t o)ten +iss ke%

points' C#in"s cu!!enc% cont!ols "nd )ull e+plo%+ent/e*po!t9o!iented &!owt# st!"te&% &i@e Beiin& )ew c#oices

ot#e! t#"n $u%in& 6S (!e"su!% $ills o! #"!+in& its own econo+%' "t#e! t#"n c!e"tin& new !ules o! institutions ininte!n"tion"l fn"nce, o! !eo!ientin& t#e C#inese econo+% to &ene!"te &!e"te! lon&9te!+ consu+e! de+"nd "t

#o+e, C#inese le"de!s "!e despe!"tel% clin&in& to t#e st"tus uo t#ou Beiin& dese!@es c!edit )o! s#o!t9te!+

e7o!ts to sti+ul"te econo+ic &!owt#4' (#e &!e"te! d"n&e! wit# C#in" is not "n eclipsin& o) 6S le"de!s#ip, $ut

inste"d t#e kind o) s#i)t in st!"te&ic o!ient"tion t#"t #"ppened to J"p"n ")te! t#e !e"t Dep!ession' J"p"n w"s

"!&u"$l% not " !e@isionist powe! $e)o!e 1F2 "nd sout inste"d to con@e!&e wit# t#e &lo$"l econo+% t#!ou open

t!"de "nd "doption o) t#e &old st"nd"!d' (#e wo!ldwide depression "nd pro*ec*ionismo) t#e 1F=s

de@"st"ted t#e newl% e*posed J"p"nese econo+% "nd con*ri!u*ed direc*ly *o mili*"ris*ic "nd

"u*"r(ic policies in Asi""s t#e J"p"nese people !e"cted "&"inst w#"t counted )o! &lo$"liL"tion "t t#eti+e' C#in" tod"% is si+il"!l% con@e!&in& wit# t#e &lo$"l econo+%, "nd +"n% e*pe!ts $elie@e C#in" needs "t le"st


23/30


h"r!oring *erroris*s *o incu!"*ing p"ndemic dise"ses "nd *r"Lc(ing in

persons. 2* ould"lso undermine *he demons*r"*ion eec* o+ li!er"l norms

we "!e u!&in& C#in" to e+$!"ce "t #o+e' 3!otectionis+ (#e coll"pse o+ fn"nci"l m"r(e*sin 1F2F

"s compounded !y pro*ec*ionis* me"suressuc# "s t#e S+oot9H"wle% t"!i7 "ct in 1F2'

Suddenl%, *he economic coll"pse !ec"me " Pero)sum r"ce +or "u*"r(ic *r"ding

!locs *h"* !ec"me " (ey c"use o+ "r. (od"%, t#e &lo$"liL"tion o) fn"nce, se!@ices "nd+"nu)"ctu!in& netwo!ks "nd t#e o!ld (!"de -!&"niL"tion (-4 +"ke suc# " !"pid +o@e to t!"din& $locs unlikel%'Howe@e!, pro*ec*ionism couldstill unr"vel *he in*ern"*ion"l sys*em t#!ou ot#e!&uises' Al!e"d%, new spendin& p"ck"&es "!ound t#e wo!ld "!e p!o@idin& suppo!t )o! ce!t"in indust!ies t#"t +it $e

pe!cei@ed $% )o!ei&n co+petito!s "s un)"i! t!"de +e"su!es, potenti"ll% c!e"tin& " RS+oot9H"wle% 2'=R sti+ulus

e7ect "s &o@e!n+ents !"ce to p!op up indust!ies' RBu% A+e!ic"nR condition"lit% in t#e 6S econo+ic sti+ulus

p"ck"&e e"!lie! t#is %e"! w"s w"te!ed down so+ew#"t $% t#e -$"+" "d+inist!"tion, $ut it set " te+ptin&

p!ecedent )o! ot#e! count!ies to put up $"!!ie!s to close +"!kets' N"*ions pushing *he !ounds o+

*heir *r"de commi*men*s could overlo"d *he circui*s o) " s%ste+ t#"t c"n t"ke two

%e"!s to dete!+ine @iol"tions 9 more *h"n enough *ime +or " glo!"l mel*don ' Cli+"tec#"n&e le&isl"tion is "lso likel% to $eco+e " st"lkin& #o!se )o! p!otectionis+ "s le&isl"tu!es ent#usi"stic"ll%

e+$!"ce puniti@e t"!i7s "&"inst C#inese o! Kndi"n &oods t#"t "!e p!oduced outside o) t#e )!"+ewo!k )o! !educin&

&!een#ouse &"s e+issions' Oin"ll%, compe*i*ive dev"lu"*ion )"l!e"d% $ein& pu!sued $% C#in" in t#e

@iew o) so+e econo+ists 9 could in*ensi+y in*ern"*ion"l pro*ec*ionism "nd +ric*ion.9lo!"l *r"de#"s "l!e"d% con*r"c*ed +or *he frs* *ime ino@e! *o dec"des "nd

governmen*s h"ve only 0us* !egun e#ploring unil"*er"l me"surest#"t could

c"use )u!t#e! $"!!ie!s' Me"nw#ile, *r"de li!er"liP"*ion h"s s*"lled in *he Doh" oundo)t#e (- "nd t#e -$"+" "d+inist!"tion #"s co+e into oEce e*p!essin& st!on& !ese!@"tions "$out +"o! $il"te!"l

)!ee t!"de "&!ee+ents "l!e"d% ne&oti"ted wit# "llies like Sout# o!e" "nd Colu+$i"' .@en i) t#e cl"!ion c"ll o)

pro*ec*ionismdoes not le"d to t#e kind o) "ut"!kic $locs t#"t cont!i$uted to w"! in t#e 1F=s, it could

still dis*r"c*&o@e!n+ents +rom coll"!or"*ion onco++on *hre"*s "nd slot#e

prospec*s +or+o!e !"pid recovery'


24/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 2>/25

conomic coll"pse c"uses glo!"l "rs

oy"l 1Kdi!ecto! o) Coope!"ti@e (#!e"t eduction "t t#e 6'S' Dep"!t+ent o)De)enseJededi"#, .cono+ics o) "! "nd 3e"ce: .cono+ic, 0e&"l, "nd 3olitic"l3e!specti@es, p& 2192154

$ess in*ui*ive is ho periods o+ economic decline m"y incre"se *heli(elihood o+ e#*ern"l con8ic*' 3olitic"l science lite!"tu!e #"s cont!i$uted " +ode!"te de&!ee o)"ttention to t#e i+p"ct o) econo+ic decline "nd t#e secu!it% "nd de)ence $e#"@iou! o) inte!dependent st"les'

ese"!c# in t#is @ein #"s $een conside!ed "t s%ste+ic, d%"dic "nd n"tion"l le@els' Se@e!"l not"$le cont!i$utions

)ollow' Oi!st, on t#e s%ste+ic le@el' 3ollins 2== (#i!d, o*hers h"ve considered *he lin(

!e*een economic decline "nd e#*ern"l "rmed con8ic* "* " n"*ion"l level '

6om!erg "nd ,ess2==24 fnd " s*rong correl"*ion !e*een in*ern"l con8ic*"nd e#*ern"l con8ic*, p"r*icul"rly during periods o+ economic don*urn' (#e%

w!ite' The lin("ge/ !e*een in*ern"l "nd e#*ern"l con8ic* "nd prosperi*y "re

s*rong "nd mu*u"lly rein+orcing' conomic con8ic* lends *o sp"n in*ern"l

con8ic*/ hich in *urn re*urns *he +"vour' Mo!eo@e!, *he presence o+ "

recession *ends *o "mpli+y *he e#*en* *o hich in*ern"*ion"l "nd e#*ern"l

con8ic*s sel+)rein+orce e"ch o*herHlo+#en P Hess' 21=2' p' WFa conomic decline

h"s "lso !een lin(ed i*h "n incre"se in *he li(elihood o+ *errorismBlo+$c!&'

Hess' P ee !" p"n ", 2==>R. hich h"s *he c"p"ci*y *o spill "cross !orders "nd le"d

*o e#*ern"l *ensions' Ou!t#e!+o!e, crises gener"lly reduce *he popul"ri*y o+ "

si**ing governmen*. >Diversion"ry *heory> sugges*s *h"*/ hen +"cing

unpopul"ri*y "rising +rom economic decline/ si**ing governmen*s h"veincre"sed incen*ives *o +"!ric"*e e#*ern"l mili*"ry con8ic*s *o cre"*e "

?r"lly "round *he 8"g? eec*' "n& 1FFQ4, Dcoucn 1FF54, "nd Blo+$c!&' Hess, "nd (#"cke!2==Q4 fnd suppo!tin& e@idence s#owin& t#"t econo+ic decline "nd use o) )o!ce "!c "t le"st indi!ecti4 co!!el"ted'

elpi 1FF;4' Mille! 1FFF4' "nd is"n&"ni "nd 3icke!in& 2==F4 su&&est t#"t K#e tendenc% tow"!ds di@e!sion"!%

t"ctics "!c &!e"te! )o! de+oc!"tic st"tes t#"n "utoc!"tic st"tes, due to t#e )"ct t#"t de+oc!"tic le"de!s "!e

&ene!"ll% +o!e suscepti$le to $ein& !e+o@ed )!o+ oEce due to l"ck o) do+estic suppo!t' Deouen 2===4 #"sp!o@ided e@idence s#owin& t#"t pe!iods o) we"k econo+ic pe!)o!+"nce in t#e 6nited St"tes, "nd t#us we"k

3!esidenti"l popul"!it%, "!e st"tistic"ll% linked lo "n inc!e"se in t#e use o) )o!ce' Kn su++"!%, !cccni economic


25/30


schol"rship posi*ively correl"*es economic in*egr"*ion i*h "n incre"se in

*he +requency o+ economic crises/ here"s poli*ic"l science schol"rship

lin(s economic decline i*h e#*ern"l con8ic*"l s%ste+ic, d%"dic "nd n"tion"l le@els' (#isi+plied connection $etween inte&!"tion, c!ises "nd "!+ed conGict #"s not )e"tu!ed p!o+inentl% in t#e econo+ic9

secu!it% de$"te "nd dese!@es +o!e "ttention'


26/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 2Q/25

C"se Turn 9lo!"l 4"rmingconomic decline orsens glo!"l "rming i* c"uses roll!"c(

o+ ecologic"l pro*ec*ion

Spross 1 Je7 Sp!oss, 8#% C#"+pions -) Cli+"te 0e&isl"tion Must Also Be

C#"+pions -) Jo$ C!e"tion, (#ink 3!o&!ess, 5/2/2=1,#ttp://t#inkp!o&!ess'o!&/cli+"te/2=1/=5/2/2=5==1/w#%9c#"+pions9o)9cli+"te9

le&isl"tion9+ust9"lso9$e9c#"+pions9o)9o$9c!e"tion/

2*-sp!o$"$l% +"ir, i) c!ude, *o *"l( "!ou* n"*ion"l socie*ies "s h"ving moods/Fo!

&oin& t#!ou p"!ticul"! ps%c#olo&ic"l st"tes X especi"lly in economic depressions, hen

*hey !ecome more +e"r+ul "nd less illing *o *"(e ris(s.(#e 6nited St"tes #"s spentt#e l"st )ew %e"!s +i!ed in t#e wo!st econo+ic slu+p since t#e !e"t Dep!ession, "nd " c"p9"nd9t!"de s%ste+ o! "

c"!$on p!ice is unuestion"$l% "n "tte+pt to st!uctu!"ll% !"ise t#e p!ice o) so+e )o!+s o) ene!&%' Howe@e!

+e!ito!ious, t#ose policies "!e so+et#in& o) " step into t#e econo+ic unknown, "nd t#us unde!st"nd"$l% wo!!%in&

to t#e "@e!"&e @ote!' So i+ *he economy is "ec*ing *he n"*ion"l mood/ *h"*-s "

pro!lem +or policy eor*s *o fgh* clim"*e ch"nge ' And e"!lie! t#is week, t#e "s#in&ton

3osts B!"d 3lu+e! du& up

" new stud%t#"t put so+e #"!d d"t" to t#"t p#eno+enon "t t#e politic"l le@el' #"t

9r"n* G"co!sen o+ *he Universi*y o+ 7regondid w"s t"ke " look "t #ow une+plo%+ent in

@"!ious st"tes c#"n&ed t#e @otes o) sen"to!s )!o+ t#ose st"tes' He used *he $e"gue o+

Conserv"*ion Oo*ers-0CT4 scorec"rd "s " me"sure o+2FQ sen"*ors-)!iendliness to

pro)environmen* vo*es' (#en J"co$sen dete!+ined #ow t#ei! sco!e c#"n&ed "s une+plo%+ent in t#ei!

st"te went up "nd down $etween 1F;Q "nd 2==


27/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 2;/25

C"se Turn Chin"con decline *urns chin" "r

9l"ser -1MBonnie S' l"se!, senio! )ellow "t t#e Cente! )o! St!"te&ic "ndKnte!n"tion"l Studies, 8C#in" Ks e"ctin& to -u! e"k .cono+%, New Uo!k (i+es,

5/2/2=12, #ttp://www'n%ti+es'co+/!oo+)o!de$"te/2=12/=5/=2/"!e9we9#e"ded9)o!9"9cold9w"!9wit#9c#in"/c#in"9is9!e"ctin&9to9ou!9we"k9econo+%

(o +"int"in pe"ce "nd st"$ilit% in t#e Asi"93"cifc !e&ion "nd secu!e A+e!ic"n

inte!ests, t#e 6nited St"tes +ust sust"in its le"de!s#ip"nd $olste! !e&ion"l confdence in its

st"%in& powe!'(#e ke% to t#ose &o"ls is !ein@i&o!"tin& t#e 6'S' econo+%' Histo!ic"ll%,

t#e C#inese #"@e t"ken "d@"nt"&e o) pe!cei@ed A+e!ic"n we"kness "nd s#i)ts in

t#e &lo$"l $"l"nce o) powe!' Kn 1F;> C#in" seiLed t#e 3"!"cel Ksl"nds )!o+ S"i&onust ")te! t#e 6nited St"tes "nd t#e Soci"list epu$lic o) Tietn"+ si&ned t#e 3"!is

3e"ce (!e"t%, w#ic# si&n"led t#e 6'S' wit#d!"w"l )!o+ t#e !e&ion' #ent#e So@ietle"de! Mik#"il o!$"c#e@ +et one o) Den& Wi"opin&s 8t#!ee o$st"cles !eui!e+ents)o! $ette! ties "nd wit#d!ew )!o+ C"n "n# B"%, Tietn"+, in 1F


28/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 2


29/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle 2F/25

A&T conomy ill !e 7Jconomy isn-* resilien* "nymore

"mpell -11CA(H.KN. AM3.00, 8Second ecession in 6'S' Could Be o!se(#"n Oi!st, New Uo!k (i+es, pe!cent since Dece+$e! 2==;, t#e count!% does not #"@e " $u7e! in #ousin& to )"ll $"ck on' -) "ll t#e


30/30

JMHS Business Confdence DA fle =/25

+"o! econo+ic indic"to!s, indust!i"l p!oduction X "s t!"cked $% t#e Oede!"l ese!@e X is $% )"! t#e wo!st o7' (#eOeds inde* o) t#is "cti@it% is ne"!l% < pe!cent $elow its le@el in Dece+$e! 2==;' 0ikewise, "nd pe!#"ps +ost

wo!!iso+e, is t#e t!"ck !eco!d )o! t#e count!%s o@e!"ll output' Acco!din& to newl% !e@ised d"t" )!o+ t#e Co++e!ceDep"!t+ent, t#e econo+% is s+"lle! tod"% t#"n it w"s w#en t#e !ecession $e&"n, despite o! !"t#e!, $ec"use o)4

t#e )ee$le &!owt# in t#e l"st couple o) %e"!s' K) t#e econo+% we!e #e"lt#%, it would $e +uc# $i&&e! t#"n it w"s )ou!

%e"!s "&o' .cono+ists !e)e! to t#e di7e!ence $etween w#e!e t#e econo+% is "nd w#e!e it could $e i) it +et its )ull

potenti"l "s t#e 8output &"p' MenLie C#inn, "n econo+ics p!o)esso! "t t#e 6ni@e!sit% o) isconsin, #"s esti+"ted

t#"t t#e econo+% w"s "$out ; pe!cent s+"lle! t#"n its potenti"l "t t#e $e&innin& o) t#is %e"!' Unli(e during*he frs* don*urn/ *here ould !e +e policy remedies "v"il"!le i+ *he

economy ere *o rever* !"c( in*o recession. 2n*eres* r"*es c"nno* !e

pushed don +ur*her H *hey "re "lre"dy "* Pero. The ;ed h"s "lre"dy

8ooded *he fn"nci"l m"r(e*s i*h money !y !uying !illions in mor*g"ge

securi*ies "nd Tre"sury !onds/ "nd economis*s do no* even "gree on

he*her *hose purch"ses su!s*"n*i"lly helped *he economy' So *he ;ed m"y

no* see much upside *o going *hrough "no*her poli*ic"lly con*roversi"l

round o+ !uying. 8(#e!e "!e onl% so +"n% ti+es t#e Oed c"n pull t#is s"+e !"$$it out o) its #"t, s"id(o!sten Slok, t#e c#ie) inte!n"tion"l econo+ist "t Deutsc#e B"nk' Con&!ess #"d so+e !oo+ X fn"nci"ll% "nd

politic"ll% X to en&"&e in fsc"l sti+ulus du!in& t#e l"st !ecession' But "* *he end o+ MKK%/ *he

+eder"l de!* "s =3.3 percen* o+ *he economy. Tod"y/ i* is es*im"*ed "*

"round 1KK percen* o+ gross domes*ic produc*/ " sh"re no* seen since *he

"+*erm"*h o+ 4orld 4"r 22/ "nd *here is li**le ch"nce o+ l"m"(ers re"ching

consensus on "ddi*ion"l s*imulus *h"* ould incre"se *he de!*. 8There is

no "ppro"ch"!le preceden*/ "* le"s* in *he pos*"r er"/ +or h"* h"ppens

hen "n economy i*h @ percen* unemploymen* +"lls !"c( in*o

recession/Fs"id Ni&el "ult, c#ie) 6nited St"tes econo+ist "t KHS lo$"l Knsit' 8(#e one p!ecedent %ou+it conside! is 1F;, w#en t#e!e w"s "lso " p!e+"tu!e wit#d!"w"l o) fsc"l sti+ulus, "nd t#e econo+% )ell into

"not#e! !ecession +o!e p"in)ul t#"n t#e f!st'

business confidence da

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