bushfireconf2015 - 1. be prepared: climate change and the nsw bushfire threat
TRANSCRIPT
• Global – Australian – NSW climate context
• Projections for fire risk
• Implications for biodiversity & management
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 4oC
No. days each year when Australia area-averaged daily mean temperature is above 99th percentile (1910-2013) (CSIRO & BoM 2014)
Fire season is lengthening in NSW
• Fire season starting earlier, lasting longer
• 2014: 55 Local Government areas in NSW declared earlier start to bushfire season (August or Sept cf Oct)
Bushfire impacts in NSW: health & economy
• >100 deaths since 1926
• Reduced air quality: Oct 2013 air quality levels in Sydney region were 50 x worse than normal; 228 admitted for breathing difficulties; 124% increased asthma
• 2014: total economic
costs of NSW bushfires ~$43 million; projected to be 3x by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics 2014)
Bushfire impacts in NSW: ecological
• Reduced water quality in catchments
• Obligate seeders and long generation time plants vulnerable compared to vegetative reproducers and short-lived
• Sessile or low mobility animals at risk
Implications for managers
• Hotter & more frequent fires will drive significant changes in the structure & composition of ecological communities
• Declining seed banks and changed habitats may result in local extinctions of some species
Implications for managers (cont)
• e.g. 2012-13: largest ever hazard reduction program in national parks: 330 separate burns, >205,000 ha burnt
• NSW population projected to grow from 7.4 million (2013) to 12.6 million (2061)
• Increasing pressure of management agencies for more hazard reduction at urban-bushland interface
Resources
NARCLiM website
http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-for-NSW/About-NARCliM
Resources
CSIRO & BoM 2015 www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Tools:
• Climate Analogues• Threshold Calculator• Climate Futures• Map Explorer• Extremes Explorer
Resources
Climate Council www.climatecouncil.org.au @climatecouncil