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STRATEGIC FORESIGHT IN THE GERMAN ARMED FORCES
Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning
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Content
2) Methodology Strategic foresight
1) The Future Analysis Branch
Multiple Futures
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The Future Analysis Branch
Interdisciplinary Approach
Sociology Technology Environment Economy
Politics
Military
Cyber/IT
Academic Freedom
• not bound by directives
• not outcome directed
• no consensus papers
• no official MoD position
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Networked Dialogue
time horizon > 15 years
www.planungsamt.bundeswehr.de
Content
2) Methodology Strategic foresight
1) The Future Analysis Branch
Multiple Futures
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www.planungsamt.bundeswehr.de
Methodology Strategic Foresight
Wildcards
Future Conflict Pictures
Future Challenges for
the German Armed Forces
Capability Development
2040 Security
Environment
Environment
Politics
Economy
Social
Military
Technology
+
Trend Land-scape
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Trend Landscape
Updated Trend-Landscape 2015
….
M works as filter : is it relevant for armed forces/security policy ?
S T E E P + M C
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Explorative Scenario-construction
Morphological
Toolbox
Future Conflict Pictures I
Actors Conflict area Conflict issue Tool concept / motive
state actor state area material physical physical / material
non-state actor high seas immaterial political Cognitive / idealistic
proxy space pluralistic economic hybrid
information space cyberspace cyber
ecologic
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133 Trends, listed according to STEEP-M
Trend Landscape 2015
16 Basic Future Conflict Pictures
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Resource Conflict Eco-Pirates Urban Warfare in a Mega-City
Conflict about Geo-Engineering
Lost in Space: Cyberattack on
Satellites
Ideological conflict in
Cyberspace
Failed integration of
Migrants
Attack on critical
supply chains
Armed Drones at NATO´s
border
Ruled by organized
Crime
Terror with Nano-WMD
Failed States on EU´s Periphery
East-West- Conflict 2.0
Space Pirates Border management
by PMSF
Outbreak – the invisible enemy
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Future Conflict Pictures II
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Relevance of Trends for Future Conflict Pictures
Polarization/ Radicalization of Societies Interstate war
Demographic Change
fragile states
non-lethal weapons
High seas as conflict environment
Proliferation
Shrinking defence budgets
XII XIII XIV XV XVI
Growing importance of Non-State-Actors
Growing interconnectivity
Global outreach of social media
Hindrance of regulation
attempts (global)
Continuous climate change
Nano-technology
Space- Conflicts
Identities as driver of future conflicts
New regional powers/hegemons
Migration
Organised crime
autonomous systems Vulnerability
Risk perception of societies
Terrorism
Global aging / Lack of workforce
Growing importance of Cyberspace
Complexity of the digital
information space
Importance of public perception
for international politics
Food prices / world food affairs
National interests / - egoism
Growing energy needs Geo-Engineering
Human Enhancement / Human-Machine-Interface
Democratization of Technologies
Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid Org-Structures
Potential Capabilities of Non-State-
Actors
Rising tensions in the global energy market
new international
actors
Urbanization
growing trans nationality
of Conflicts
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What are scenarios? – Alternative, hypothetic pictures of the future – Qualitative (verbal) description of a future situation
including relevant development paths
How are scenarios developed? – Alternative Future Analysis – Future Analysis based on IT-assisted consistency matrix and cluster
analysis
Basics about Scenarios
2 key factors n – key factors
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Today
2040
„Multiple Confrontations” Crisis factors
Resources and climate change, US commitment, role/behaviour
of China and Russia
„West vs. East“
„Multipolar Competition“
Future Security Environment
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Wild Cards
Wild cards are unexpected events with a: • very low probability • high impact • high surprise effect
„Disruptive Potential“
Incidents that change:
• reality • privat and public perception of reality • trends and their future developments
“A wild card is a future development or event with a relatively low probability of occurrence but a likely high impact on the conduct of business” © BIPE et al. 1992
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= Variation 2 = Variation 1
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Wild cards: Variations and Implications
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The Journey is the Reward! An FOE should help to identify future capability needs
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FOE-Study
Int. Dialogue
Futures Input
Cap. Dev.