bullion mcx commodity reports for the week (28th march - 1st april - 2011)

8/7/2019 Bullion MCX Commodity Reports for the Week (28th March - 1st April - 2011)

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Weekly Report

Commodity0 4 t h A p r i l - 0 9 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1

www.capitalvia.com

WEEKLY

BASE METALS SURGES ON

CHINESE DEMAND !

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed


2/8

2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

7:00pm FOMC Member Evans SpeaksUSD

4:45am

7:30pm

7:30pm

8:45pm

11:30pm

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

CB Consumer Confidence

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

FOMC Meeting Minutes

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

TueApr 5

59.7

70.4

60.2

64.9

385K

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

MonApr 4

Globa l Re s e a rch L imi t e d

0 4 t h A p r i l - 0 9 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1

8:00pm Crude Oil InventoriesUSDWedApr 6

2.9M

6:00pm

8:00pm

Unemployment Claims

Natural Gas Storage

USD

USD

ThuApr 7

388K

12B

4.8B

1.2%

12:30am

7:30pm

Consumer Credit m/m

Wholesale Inventories m/m

USD

USD

FriApr 8

5.0B

1.1%


3/8

Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview


Gold slipped on Friday as an encouraging U.S. jobs report boosted the dollar, though euro zone debt worries and unrest in the Middle East lifted bullion off lows. Positive

nonfarm payrolls and manufacturing data confirmed a strengthening U.S. economy, but economists said the news was not enough to push the Federal Reserve away from

an ultra-easy monetary stance that has helped Gold hit record highs. Spot Gold dropped 0.6 percent to $1,428.20 an ounce, sharply off its low at $1,412.55 hit earlier in the

session. Bullion has risen about 0.5 percent this week for its second consecutive weekly gain. It hit a record $1,447.40 an ounce last week. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery

settled down 0.8 percent at $1,428.90, with COMEX trading volume slightly below its 30-day average after strong turnover earlier this week partly due to contract rollover.

Gold recorded a 10th consecutive quarter of gains in the first three months of 2011, but it was the smallest rise since the financial crisis gripped markets in late 2008. A

successful debt sale by Portugal on Friday did little to cull expectations it will soon join the euro zone bailout list, while Ireland's credit rating was cut after bank stress tests

revealed another black hole. Despite a rally in energy prices, stagnant growth in wages does not bode well for Gold's inflation-hedge appeal, said Peter Buchanan, senior

economist at CIBC World Markets.

HAWKISH FED COMMENTS, ECB IN FOCUS

Even as most economists agree the Fed will not tighten monetary policy in the short term, recent hawkish comments by top Fed officials are weighing on bullion investor

sentiment. Jeffrey Lacker, Richmond Fed president, said the U.S. central bank could raise interest rates by the end of the year to curb rising inflation. Gold tends to suffer

when rates climb, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets increases.Investment products such as Gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw less interest, with the No. 1 SPDR Gold Trust reporting its biggest ever quarterly outflow in the first

quarter. U.S. Mint data showed Gold American Eagles sales were the strongest in the first quarter since the end of 2009, and quarterly sales of silver American Eagle coins

rose to a record in the same period.

PRECIOUS-GOLD SLIPS ON U.S. JOBS DATA, FED EYED

NYMEX-CRUDE JUMPS TO END AT HIGHEST SINCE 2008U.S. Crude oil futures prices jumped more than 1 percent to its highest close in 2-1/2-years as supportive U.S. jobs data reinforced economic growth expectations and as

Libya's conflict and Middle East unrest kept investors wary of threats to supply. U.S. nonfarm payrolls registered solid growth for a second month in March and the jobless

rate hit a two-year low of 8.8 percent, helping fuel optimism about oil demand. Geopolitical supply risks also had oil traders wary, as Libya's conflict and Middle East unrest

persist.

FUNDAMENTALS

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May Crude raised $1.22, or 1.14 percent, to settle at $107.94 a barrel, highest close since ending at $108.02 on Sept. 25, 2008. The

low was $106.30. Prices hit $108.47 in post-settlement trading, highest intraday price since $108.67, on Sept. 25, 2008. NYMEX Crude ended with a weekly gain of $2.54.

Money managers raised their net-long Crude oil futures and options positions on the NYMEX in the week to March 29, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS

American Petroleum Institute oil inventory data at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday.

COPPER ENDS DOWN AMID EXTENDED CHINESE DEMAND LULL

Copper ended lower on Friday, building upon the 2.4-percent loss recorded in the first quarter, as a lull in Chinese buying and a rising trend in inventories continued to reflect

near-term demand weakness. Copper's losses at the start of the new quarter bucked the firmer tone in U.S. equities, which raced to their highest level since June 2008 after

data showed a second straight month of solid gains in jobs and a slight drop in unemployment, which stood at two-year lows. Without an aggressive Chinese market

presence, Copper's shorter-term prospects remained bleak. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month Copper was untraded at the close and last bid at $9,359 a tonne

versus Thursday's close at $9,430. COMEX May Copper shed 4.90 cents to settle at $4.2585 per lb. overnight, traders were met with Chinese purchasing managers' indices

data, which showed a moderation in growth in the country's manufacturing sector. U.S. data later in the day showed manufacturing grew at a marginally slower pace in

March as well, while construction spending fell to its lowest level since October 1999. Even as the upbeat U.S. jobs data signaled a decisive shift in the struggling labor market,

it failed to alter investors' weary perception of Copper demand. Instead, investors have been focusing on the hefty supply builds in Chinese and London warehouses.Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. LME Copper stocks fell by 1,000 tonnes on

Thursday to 438,850 tonnes. Despite the withdrawal, inventories remain near their highest in eight months, having been on a steady climb since December.


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4/8

GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold neither sustain on higher level

nor at lower level. In the coming week 1375$ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold, if

COMEX Gold sustains above 1441$ an ounce then above 1450 $ an ounce it can touch the

level of 1470$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1390$ then it can slightly

correct and test the level of 1370$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1441$ an ounce, then above 1450$ it can test the level of 1470$ an ounce and above

1470$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1370$ and 1340$.

Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1450$ and 1475$

Major support in MCX Gold is 20450 and 20150

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 21200 and 21450

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver break the level of

3670$ and made a weekly close above that. For the upcoming week 3550$ and 3350$ are

the crucial supports and 3800$ and 3920 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX

Silver 57000 and 58500 will act as major resistance and 53500 and 51000 will act as major

supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on

lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3700$ an ounce, then above 3800$

an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3850$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy

1488 1457 1443 1426 1412 1395

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1364

Script

Levels

4047 3892 3832 3738 3678 3583


3429

Script

Levels

Weekly Report

Commodity

Technical Analysis



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5/8

CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week in Crude oil broke its level of 107 and made a

close near to its week high. For the coming week 96$ will act as major support and 108.30

$ a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4875 and

4950 and major supports will be 4600 and 4500.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 100 $ a barrel then above 108.50 $ it can slightly come up and touch the

level of 109.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4835 Crude oil can touch the level of 4900 if it

sustains above 4700. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week. If next week

COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 417 then above the level of 431 Copper can test

the level of 437. In MCX Copper above 426 Copper can test the level of 433 if it does not

break the level of 410 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 450 and 460 will act as major resistance and 417 and 405 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 440 and 450

and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

Strategy

117.91 112.14 110.01 106.37 104.27 100.60


94.83

Script

Levels

474.80 452.45 439.00 430.10 416.70 407.75


385.40

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



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6/8

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on

lower levels. Last week Natural Gas neither sustain on higher level nor at lower level. If next

week Natural Gas sustains below the level of 4.300$ then below the level of 4.200$ Natural

Gas can test the level of 4.110 $ and above 4.500$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test

the level of 4.610$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below190 in the coming week then it

can test the level of 184, if it does not break the level of 201 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 175 and 165.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.2000 then above the level of

44.5000 USD/INR can test the level of 44.7500 and below 44.2000 USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 44.0000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.0000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and

46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

4.949 4.633 4.518 4.317 4.202 4.001


3.685

Script

Levels

45.9030 45.9030 45.0070 44.7630 44.4370 44.1930


43.6230

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



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7/8

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1428.9 0.19

SILVER 3784 2.14

COPPER 425.6 -3.51

CRUDE 107.94 2.41

NATURAL GAS 4.362 -0.93

USD/INR 44.37 -0.69

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

NICKEL 28 -APR-11 1150.60 -6.11

COPPER 29 -APR-11 419.10 -4.55

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 21098 21069 2080021112 20945 70194 9572 1440295.66-153

Silver MCX 5-MAY-11 Silver RS./ KG. 55478 55416 5463556195 55884 380790 14436 6303633.71406

Copper MCX 29-APR-11 Copper RS./ KG. 439.1 438.5 416.9438.5 419.1 493316 27136 2098338.36-20

Crude Oil MCX 18-APR-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4742 4731 46304829 4825 617683 17995 2882538.1583

Natural Gas MCX 26-APR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 203.3 203.7 189.2205.8 194.8 152142 9424 372737.01-8.5

Lead MCX 28-APR-11 Lead RS./ KG. 121.65 120.7 118.95122.95 122.55 41814 6600 250914.830.9

Zinc MCX 28-APR-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 107.5 107.1 103.55107.1 106.25 52865 8068 275920.29-1.25

Aluminum MCX 28-APR-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 117.95 117.55 115.95118.3 116.95 10659 -1 1910 62190.76

Nickel MCX 28-APR-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1225.5 1220 1137.31220 1150.6 107806 10705 312501.48-74.9

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

CRUDE OIL 18 -APR-11 4825 1.75

LEAD 28 -APR-11 122.55 0.74

Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


*

* Turnover Till Friday

SILVER 05 -MAY-11 55884 0.73


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NATURAL GAS 26 -APR-11 194.80 -4.18


8/8

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

21577.00

58696.67

468.03

5159.00

229.83

129.50

112.75

1334.93

121.77

21265.00

57136.67

446.43

4960.00

213.23

125.50

109.20

1252.23

119.42

20953.00

55576.67

424.83

4761.00

196.63

121.50

105.65

1169.53

117.07

20794.00

54958.33

411.17

4693.00

187.47

120.05

104.20

1119.07

115.83

20641.00

54016.67

418.97

4562.00

180.03

117.50

102.10

1086.83

114.72

20329.00

52456.67

381.63

4363.00

163.43

113.50

98.55

1004.13

112.37

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

21106.00

56518.33

432.77

4892.00

204.07

124.05

107.75

1201.77

118.18

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bullion mcx commodity reports for the week (28th march - 1st april - 2011)

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