bulgaria: indicators - eurobank · 3 bulgaria: indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f real gdp growth % 1.7...
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BULGARIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % 1.7 2.9 3.0
CPI (pa, yoy %) -1.4 0.1 1.0
Budget Balance/GDP* -3.7 -3.3 -2.0
Current Account/GDP 0.9 2.5 1.4
EUR/BGN (eop)
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) N/A N/A N/A
* on a cash basis
1.9558
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
CYPRUS: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % -2.3 1.2 1.6
HICP (pa, yoy %) -0.3 -2.1 -0.4
Budget Balance/GDP* -0.2 -1.3 0.1
Current Account/GDP -5.1 -5.5 -4.5
* ESA 2010
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
ROMANIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % 2.9 3.5 4.1
CPI (pa, yoy %) 1.1 -0.8 0.5
Budget Balance/GDP * -1.9 -1.9 -2.8
Current Account/GDP -0.4 -0.7 -1.0
EUR/RON (eop) 4.40 4.45 4.40
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 1.75 1.75 1.75
* on a cash basis
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
SERBIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % -1.8 1.0 2.0
CPI (pa, yoy %) 2.1 1.7 3.5
Budget Balance/GDP -6.7 -3.5 -4.6
Current Account/GDP -6.0 -4.3 -4.1
EUR/RSD (eop) 120.96 122.00 124.00
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 8.00 4.50 4.50
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
600
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1000
1100
1200
Jan-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
MSCI
L-T ccy Moody's S&P Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- B+
ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BB+ BBB-
CYPRUS B3 BB- B+
Credit Ratings
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
S&P 500 1893.36 0.6% -7.4% EUR/USD 1.0906 -0.3% 0.5% UST - 10yr 1.93 -4 -33 GOLD 1114 -0.1% 5.0%
Nikkei 225 17518.30 2.8% -8.0% GBP/USD 1.4345 -0.1% -2.7% Bund-10yr 0.36 -4 -27 BRENT CRUDE 34 1.0% -8.2%
STOXX 600 339.51 1.4% -7.2% USD/JPY 120.95 -1.8% -0.7% JGB - 10yr 0.10 -13 -17 LMEX 2146 -1.2% -2.6%
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
CESEE MARKETS
SERBIA ROMANIA BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
T/N 290 0 -13 O/N 0.4 -3 -13 LEONIA -0.08 0 -9
1-week 3.02 1 -17 1-month 0.53 -4 -16 1-month -0.05 -1 -21
1-month 3.25 0 -26 3-month 0.85 -1 -17 3-month 0.07 -1 -19
3-month 3.46 0 -37 6-month 1.13 -5 -21 6-month 0.29 0 -23
6-month 3.65 -1 -38 12-month 1.32 -4 -20 12-month 0.73 0 -24
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 3.52 #N/A N/A -7 3Y RON 1.68 -2 -25 3Y BGN -0.16 #N/A N/A -16
5Y RSD 5.12 #N/A N/A 0 5Y RON 2.49 -1 -31 5Y BGN 0.21 -2 -16
7Y RSD 7.79 0 9 10Y RON 3.49 -2 -29 10Y BGN 1.86 0 1
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 3.14 -1 -2 EUR Oct-25 2.48 -5 -9 EUR Jul-17 0.02 9 -5
USD Nov-24 6.42 0 1 USD Jan-24 3.60 -2 -18 EUR Sep-24 2.36 14 -6
CDS CDS CDS Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 288 0 13 5-year 126 -2 -8 5-year 166 -3 -6
10-year 334 0 -5 10-year 169 7 -2 10-year 208 -3 -8
. .
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 600.2 1.40% -6.82% BET 6295.6 0.80% -10.12% SOFIX 443.1 -0.16% -3.86%
FOREX FOREX FOREX
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EUR/RSD 123.34 -0.13% -1.42% EUR/RON 4.5302 0.29% -0.36% USD/BGN 1.7935 -0.38% 0.38%
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
BET Index
118
120
122
124
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Ja
n-1
6
EUR/RSD
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
4.55
4.60
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Ja
n-1
6
EUR/RON
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Ja
n-1
6
USD/BGN
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
BET Index
400
450
500
550
600
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
SOFIX Index
