building - western • resource studies / market research ... hardwood lumber supply available...
Post on 16-Jul-2020
0 views
Embed Size (px)
TRANSCRIPT
Building With Wood: Housing, the Economy and Western Hardwoods
Western Hardwood Association 2nd Annual Western Hardwood
International Convention & Exposition May 20, 2014
Portland, Oregon
Forest2Market Data – Experience – Expertise • Neutral‐third party (independent in ownership and structure) • Capture of transaction level data is the only way to achieve a true measure
of market price. Transaction data is the foundation of all our products and services
Client relationships • Timberland owners and log marketers, forest products manufacturing
companies, pulp and paper, bio‐energy industries Market Intelligence • Resource studies / Market research • Timber price forecasts and economic analysis • Proprietary transaction level sales and cost data • Publications Headquartered in Charlotte, NC; offices in Eugene, OR,
Appleton, WI and Curitiba, Brazil
©2013 Forest2Market®, Inc. 3
Today’s agenda
• Western hardwoods market share • Western hardwood timber supply • Building construction trends • Economic outlook
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
B ill
io n
B oa
rd F
ee t
Hardwood Lumber Supply Available to the US Market from All Sources
Imports Western Production Eastern Production
Sources: US Census and Hardwood Market Report
Graph: Hardwood Market Report *projected
Western hardwood timber supply
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 6
Hardwoods in conifer forests • Mixed species stands in
forests west of Cascade mountains; alder, big leaf maple and others
• Private and state owned forests
• OR+WA = 200 MMBF~ annually; +/‐5% of total timber harvest
• Harvest restrictions on federal forests and private lands regulation
• Furniture, cabinets, millwork and pallets
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 7
Irrigated Poplar plantation forests east of the Cascade Mountains
• Hybrid row crop plantations
• 12 year harvest rotation
• Irrigated desert lands • 2/3 plywood and
lumber, remainder for pulp chips and biomass
• 35,000 acres +/‐
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 8
Western valley hybrid plantations
• Hybrid row crop Poplar plantations
• Agricultural low‐ lands
• Short rotation • Mostly pulpwood,
few saw‐logs • Several thousand
acres sponsored by paper industry
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 9
Conifer values drive harvest levels
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 10
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
$0.00
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DF average WA harvest
Washington Red Alder harvest
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 11
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
alder other hardwoods total harvest
Value comparison: Alder and Douglas fir sawmill logs
©2013 Forest2Market®, Inc. 12Source: F2M Benchmarks
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Ja n‐ 08
M ar ‐0 8
M ay ‐0 8
Ju l‐0
8
Se p‐ 08
N ov
‐0 8
Ja n‐ 09
M ar ‐0 9
M ay ‐0 9
Ju l‐0
9
Se p‐ 09
N ov
‐0 9
Ja n‐ 10
M ar ‐1 0
M ay ‐1 0
Ju l‐1
0
Se p‐ 10
N ov
‐1 0
Ja n‐ 11
M ar ‐1 1
M ay ‐1 1
Ju l‐1
1
Se p‐ 11
N ov
‐1 1
Ja n‐ 12
M ar ‐1 2
M ay ‐1 2
Ju l‐1
2
Se p‐ 12
N ov
‐1 2
Ja n‐ 13
M ar ‐1 3
M ay ‐1 3
Ju l‐ 1
3
Se p‐ 13
N ov
‐1 3
Ja n‐ 14
DF West Domestic Red Alder saw Poly. (DF West Domestic) Poly. (Red Alder saw)
Hardwood applications: Beauty
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 13
Hardwood applications: Functionality
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 14
2013 distribution for hardwood lumber
Western hardwoods:
• 70% KD lumber for doors, millwork, cabinets and furniture
• 20‐30% pallet stock
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 15
43%
5%17%
5%
5%
9%
13% 4%
US National Hardwood Consumption
pallets furniture exports millwork
cabinets flooring RR ties mats
Pallets Millwork, flooring and cabinets 19%
Source: Hardwood Market Report
exports
Estimates of Consumption of US Hardwoods
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% Change
2012
% Change
2005
Pallets 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.26 3.27 3.643 11.4% -4.1%
Furniture 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.35 0.29 0.30 0.427 42.3% -64.4%
Exports 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.07 1.2 1.32 1.462 10.8% 12.5%
Millwork 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.43 0.24 0.26 0.387 48.9% -70.2%
Cabinets 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.34 0.36 0.392 8.9% -75.5%
Flooring 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.59 0.51 0.55 0.753 36.9% -49.8%
Railway Ties 0.85 0.96 0.92 0.94 0.89 0.89 0.98 1.04 1.114 7.1% 31.1%
Board Road/Mat Timbers N/A N/A N/A 0.2 0.05 0.075 0.12 0.16 0.369 130.6% N/A
Total Estimated Consumption 11.55 11.16 10.32 8.94 6.64 7.01 6.94 7.26 8.55 17.7% -37.1%
© 2014 Hardwood Market Report
Building with wood
©2013 Forest2Market®, Inc. 17
Residential construction value MM $ in place
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 18
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
New single family New multi‐family Residential Improvements
Changing demographics of housing
©2013 Forest2Market®, Inc. 19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
19 59
19 61
19 63
19 65
19 67
19 69
19 71
19 73
19 75
19 77
19 79
19 81
19 83
19 85
19 87
19 89
19 91
19 93
19 95
19 97
19 99
20 01
20 03
20 05
20 07
20 09
20 11
20 13
Total starts Single family Poly. (Single family)
Single family=66 % in 2013
1993 87%
Percent of new homes 4 bedrooms +
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 20
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hardwood applications: Style
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 21
Trends in multi‐family housing
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 22
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1400 ft²
Hardwood applications: Efficiency
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 23
Commercial construction MM $ in place
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 24
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Hardwood applications: Utility
©2013, Forest2Market, Inc. Slide 25
Economic Outlook – 2014‐2015
Slide: 26
How does this recovery stack up?
©2013 Forest2Market®, Inc. 27
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
‐5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
19 75
19 76
19 77
19 78
19 79
19 80
19 81
19 82
19 83
19 84
19 85
19 86
19 87
19 88
19 89
19 90
19 91
19 92