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Building Resilient Agricultural Systems in Nigeria - Contributions to Sustainable Development The 2016 "Agricultural Resilience and Security in Nigeria" Conference, the Nigerian Environmental Study Action Team (NEST) and the Federal University Ndufu Alike Ikwo, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
Prof. Dr. C. Ifejika Speranza, Unit Sustainable Land Management, Institute of Geography, University of Bern
25.10.2016
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Outline
1. Introduction - the need for building resilience
2. Conceptualising resilience in agricultural systems
3. Internal dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
4. External dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
5. Conclusions & key messages
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/area/159/en
Introduction: Nigeria’s major food crops
Agriculture
(besides crude oil)
Nigeria’s biggest
economic sector:
- ca. 23% GDP*
- ca. 44% GDP#
- 70% employment
- * 1st Q. 2016
- # 2012/13
- FoN 2016
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Nigeria’s Livestock Production
http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/area/159/en
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Agriculture production trend 2001-2010
http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/area/159/en
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
A growing rural and urban population
http://faostat.fao.org/beta/en/#country/159
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Increasing Emissions from Agriculture
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http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/area/159/en
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Why agricultural resilience in Nigeria?
> Inability to meet domestic food requirements (Republic of Nigeria – RoN 2016)
> Inability to export at quality levels required for market success (RoN 2016).
> Land degradation
> Climate change - Africa as most vulnerable continent
> Food price spikes
> Poverty
> Farmer-herder conflicts
> Current inflation
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Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Why build agricultral resilience?
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Adegoke et al., 2013: 38
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Temperature Anomalies
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Adegoke et al., 2013: 38
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Rainfall Anomaly over Nigeria, 1952‐2012 (by broad Agro‐Ecological Zones) Source: NIMET; In Adegoke et al., 2013
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Adegoke et al., 2013: 41
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Projected changes in crop yields over Nigeria by 2050 (Cervigni et al. 2013a)
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Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Outline
1. Introduction - the need for building resilience
2. Conceptualising resilience in agricultural systems
3. Internal dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
4. External dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
5. Conclusions & key messages
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Sub-systems in agricultural & food systems
Access to agric. inputs
Food prod.
Process- ing &
packaging Trade/ retailing
Consum-ption
Food waste
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Food value chain
Actors & Institutions
Natural resources subsystem: soil, water, biodiversity
Political subsystem: public & private sector policies, laws, rules
Information, services & infrastructure subsystem
adapted from Rastoin and Ghersi, 2010; Colonna et al. 2013
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Agriculture as a Social-Ecological System
15
Chapin et al. 2009: 7
> System boundary: depends on the problem addressed & the objectives
> Fit of scale of ecological and social processes
> Most SES are open systems
> Exogenous controls – strong factors that shape a system
> Critical slow variables: variables that strongly influence SESs
> Slow variables govern fast variables
> Persistent & widespread change in fast variables affect slow variables & exogenous controls
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Resilience
> the capacity of individuals, social groups or Social Ecological Systems to accommodate stresses & disturbances, to self-organise, and to learn in order to maintain or improve essential basic structures & ways of functioning (cf. Berkes and Folke, 1998; Carpenter et al., 2001;
Walker et al., 2002; Berkes et al., 2003; Folke, 2006; Adger, 2003, 2006;
IPCC, 2012).
> the ability to maintain desired conditions despite adversity (hazard risks, e.g. landslides)
> to recover, reorganise and evolve when faced with stresses and disturbances
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
General and Specified Resilience
> Specified resilience the resilience “of what to what” (e.g. the resilience of Nigerian agriculture to climatic hazards)
> General resilience neither considers any particular disturbance nor any particular aspect of a system that might be affected
— Highlights exposure to multiple disturbances
— Major attributes diversity, openness, tightness of feedbacks, system reserves, modularity
17
Resilience Alliance (2010: 34)
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Social and Ecological Resilience – are they related?
> Social resilience - the ability of groups or communities to cope with stresses & disturbances 1
> Ecological resilience - a characteristic of ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance 1
> Link - e.g. social groups or communities that are dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods1
> Sometimes resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities or vice versa1
18
1 Adger 2000
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Social-Ecological Resilience used in 2 ways
1. Resilience in a positivistic sense as a property of a system, that can be:
— resilient or not resilient
— undesirable conditions can be resilient
— A positivistic scientific view does not necessarily refer to sustainability as a societal or normative goal
— A system can be resilient but does not produce many ecosystem services needed by the society (Adger, 2010 / Hopkins, 2010)
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Social-Ecological Resilience used in 2 ways
2. Resilience as a goal for society:
— R. similar to sustainable development – a normative goal; a relative concept
— R as a part of sustainable development
— Ability to cope / adapt / change / transform (Adger 2010 / Hopkins 2010)
Resilience as an approach to sustainability & a normative goal that requires negotiation
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
The political ecology/economy of resilience
> Who has the right and power to decide about resilience of whom/what to what, & how? (Adger et al. 2009, Nelson &
Stathers, 2009)
> Transformation to what? value-laden (Boyd et al., 2008)
> Disciplinary / Interdisciplinary / Trans-disciplinary
> Participatory / Collaborative Approaches
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Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Measuring Resilience – A Challenge
Resilience
> a normative concept
> a scientific construct to be inferred; cannot be directly observed or measured (Obrist et al. 2010)
> context & time dependent
> an emergent property of systems
> An outcome and an inherent ability to adapt
> How then can it be captured?
> And in the Nigeria context?
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Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Outline
1. Introduction - the need for building resilience
2. Conceptualising resilience in agricultural systems
3. Internal dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
4. External dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
5. Implications & key messages
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Farming systems and agro-ecosystem resilience indicators (Dixon et al. 2001; Cabell and Oelofse 2012)
24
Choptiany et al., 2015: 26
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016 25
Buffer capacity - capacity to
cushion change, to maintain or
increase assets, to use
opportunities to achieve better
outcomes e.g. reducing impacts -
the ability to cope and adjust
Self-organisation – the degree to
which people can direct their own
actions and outcomes
Capacity for learning –
experimenting, innovating
Applying SES Resilience - Three general features
Buffer capacity
Capacity
for
learning
Self-
organisation
Ifejika Speranza 2010
Self-re
gu
latio
n o
f eco
syste
ms
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
26
A conceptual and analytical framework for characterising livelihood resilience
Ifejika Speranza et al. 2014: 112
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Internal buffer capacities, self-organisation and learning & external factors
27
(Image graphic: Astrid Björnsen
Gurung, in Jülich et al. 2014; in
Schneiderbauer et al., 2016: 25)
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
What do these conceptualisations of resilience mean for Nigerian agriculture? > Resources and capacities (as in buffer capacities) of
the main actors – smallholder farmers
> Conditions of key natural resources such as soil (as in buffer capacities)
> Actions of the farmers in terms of strategies and self-organisation
> Learning capacities of farmers – how do they learn and what do they learn?
28
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
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Resources and capacities (as in buffer capacities) of smallholder farmers
Ifejika Speranza et al. 2014: 112
> Poor formal education
> Aging farming population
> Lack of interest of youths in agriculture
> Gender access to land resources
Adegoke et al., 2013
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016 30
Resources and capacities (as in buffer capacities) of key natural resources
Ifejika Speranza et al. 2014: 112
> Land degradation
> Droughts & flooding
> Limited organic/chemical fertilizer use
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Fertilizer use in Nigeria
http://faostat.fao.org/beta/en/#country/159
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
http://faostat.fao.org/beta/en/#country/159
Fertilizer use in Africa compared to other world regions
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016 33
Resources and capacities (as in self-organisation & actions) of smallholder farmers
Ifejika Speranza et al. 2014: 112
> Farmers' associations, e.g. Fadama Community Associations & Fadama User Groups; Plantian farmer's associations etc.
> Dependency on government & other external actors
> To what extent can farmers/pastoralists direct their own actions?
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016 34
Resources and capacities (as in learning capacities) of smallholder farmers
Ifejika Speranza et al. 2014: 112
> Learning capacities of our farmers –
> How do they learn?
> What do they learn?
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Outline
1. Introduction - the need for building resilience
2. Conceptualising resilience in agricultural systems
3. Exploring the internal dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
4. Exploring the external dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
5. Conclusions & key messages
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Supportive environment: The external dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
36
(Image graphic: Astrid Björnsen
Gurung, in Jülich et al. 2014; in
Schneiderbauer et al., 2016: 25)
> Contextual factors
> To what extent do government, society, private sector foster buffer capacity?
> To what extent do (government, society, private sector foster farmer self-organisation?
> To what extent do government, society, private sector foster farmer learning?
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Supportive Institutional and Policy Environment
> Vision 2020
> Agriculture Transformation Agenda
> The Growth Enhancement Scheme (GES) - 2012
> Nigeria Risk Sharing Facility (NIRSAL)
> The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for Climate Change in Nigeria – NASPA‐CCN (BNRCC, 2011)
> Climate Information Services (CIS) NIMET
> The Agriculture Promotion Policy (2016 – 2020)
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Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Agricultural Extension Services
> 1 extension agent to about 2,000‐22,000 farm‐families (FF) depending on the State (Arokoya, 2007, FDAE, 2013)
> The Research‐Extension‐Farmer‐Inputs Linkage System (REFILS) 1995-2000
> Inadequate funding, poor linkages with research
> The Agriculture Transformation Agenda; Agric. Promotion Policy 2016-2020
38
State Extension
officers
Farmer
families
Extension
ration
Ebonyi 170 435328 1: 2561
Nasarawa 127 180433 1: 1421
Katsina 11 242,000 1:22,000
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Supportive environment: Addressing Farmer-herder conflicts
> Need for effective deliberative processes spearheaded by relevant government organisations
39
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Supportive Environment: Improving Access to Markets
40
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Supportive Environment: Not just cross-scale linkages but intra-scale linkages
41
Rural-urban road infrastructure
Rural electrification
Access to
agric. inputs
Increased agric.
productivity
Transportation of
agric. produce
Affordable food
in the markets
Good prices
for farmers
Urban
inhabitants
Employment
creation / rural
small businesses
Reduced poverty in rural areas /
Enhanced well-being
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Outline
1. Introduction - the need for building resilience
2. Conceptualising resilience in agricultural systems
3. Internal dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
4. External dimensions of resilience in Nigerian agriculture
5. Conclusions & key messages
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Key Message I: Why build Resilience?
Resilience directs focus on
> factors than enable functioning despite adverse conditions; dealing successfully with change (Carpenter et al.
2001; Obrist et al 2010; Cumming 2011)
It provides
> a useful framework for understanding the dynamic relationships between humans & the environment (social-ecological systems, SESs) (Cabell and Oelofse 2012)
> models for increasing society’s capacity to manage change (Cabell and Oelofse 2012)
> a key to progressing towards sustainability of SES (Walker and Salt 2006, Turner 2010)
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Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Key Message II: Resilience depends on internal & external factors
44
(Image graphic: Astrid Björnsen
Gurung, in Jülich et al. 2014; in
Schneiderbauer et al., 2016: 25)
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
Key messages III: Put farmers at the centre of policy, research, and practice
> Questions we should always ask: what does this mean from the perspective of a Nigerian farmer / pastoralist?
> Improve Monitoring and Evaluation to assess progress
> Progress towards transdisciplinary approaches – collaboration and partnerships with farmers & pastoralists
> Collaboration across government and private sector organisations
45
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016 46
chinwe.ifejika.speranza [at] giub.unibe.ch
Building agricultural resilience in Nigeria 25.10.2016
References I
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Adegoke et al., 2013. Chapter 2: Nigeria’s Changing Climate: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation in the Agriculture Sector. In Jimmy Adegoke, Chidi Ibe, and Adebisi Araba, (eds.) National Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF). A Report by The Advisory Committee On Agricultural Resilience in Nigeria (ACARN)
Adger W. N. 2006. Vulnerability, in: Global Environmental Change 16 (3), 268-281
Adger, 2010 / Hopkins, 2010. n Interview with Neil Adger: resilience, adaptability, localisation and Transition. https://www.transitionculture.org/2010/03/26/an-interview-with-neil-adger-resilience-adaptability-localisation-and-transition/
Adger, W.N. 2000. Social and Ecological Resilience: Are They Related? Progress in Human Geography 24, 347–364.
Adger, W.N., 2003. Social capital, collective action and adaptation to climate change. Econ. Geogr. 79 (4), 387–404.
Adger, W.N., Dessai, S., Goulden, M., Hulme, M., Lorenzoni, I., Nelson, D.R., Naess, L.O., Wolf, J., Wreford, A. (2009) Are there Social Limits to Adaptation to Climate Change? Climatic Change 93.
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BNRCC (Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change). 2011. National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA‐CCN). Ibadan, Nigeria: BNRCC. http://nigeriaclimatechange.org/naspa.pdf.
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References II
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Cervigni, Raffaello; Valentini, Riccardo; Santini, Monia. 2013. Toward climate-resilient development in Nigeria. Directions in development : countries and regions. Washington DC ; World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/707851468100141797/Toward-climate-resilient-development-in-Nigeria
Chambers R. 1989, “Vulnerability, Coping and Policy”, IDS Bulletin, 20(2).
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References III
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Ifejika Speranza C. 2012. Buffer Capacity: Capturing a Dimension of Resilience to Climate Change in African Smallholder Agriculture. Regional Environmental Change
Ifejika Speranza C., Wiesmann U. and Rist S. 2014. An indicator framework for assessing livelihood resilience in the context of social–ecological dynamics. Global Environmental Change 28 (2014) 109–119
Ifejika Speranza, C., 2010. Resilient adaptation to climate change in African Agriculture. Studies 54, Deutsches Institut Für Entwicklungs Politik. ISSN 1860‐0468, Bonn, Germany. 336pp.
IPCC 2012. Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.
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References IV
Nelson, V., Stathers, T. 2009. Resilience, Power, Culture, and Climate: A Case Study from Semi-Arid Tanzania, and New Research Directions. Gender and Development 17, 81-94.
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Walker B. and Salt D. 2006. Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World. Island Press, Washington.
Walker B., C. S. Holling, S. R. Carpenter and A. Kinzig. 2004. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9(2): 5. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5/
Walker B., Carpenter S., Anderies J., Abel N., Cumming G., Janssen M., Lebel L., Norberg J., Peterson G.D., Pritchard R., 2002. Resilience management in social– ecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Ecology and Society 6.
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