www.prosalesonline.com January 2010 / ProSales / 11www.prosalesonline.com10 / ProSales / January 2010

ProWatch 2010 Forecast

Northeast Just under a quarter of the 100 markets HWMI examined

expect drops in permits in 2010, and nine of them are in the Northeast. Even the places that expect growth

have little to cheer, as most are forecast to show some of the lowest permits numbers of the past 30 years. Harrisburg looks

strongest historically, even if it expects a 5% drop in 2010.

South Florida is heading out of its slump, with growth not just in the three

big markets but also in Jacksonville (up 43%). Atlanta’s 53% growth looks good, but it used to

rank fi rst or second in permits nationally, and now it’s sixth. Houston, No. 1 now, might still be benefi ting from

the out-migration after Hurricane Katrina; Mobile’s expect-ing 26% growth, one of its best years ever.

West Variety is the order of the day from the Rockies west. Rates for the region’s 25 biggest markets range

from a 105% rise in Tucson, Ariz., to a 64% fall in Olympia, Wash. Historically, there’s little to cheer as

well. Orem, Utah, and Eugene, Ore., will post the West’s best 2010 showing vs. the past 30 years,

but still won’t come within 50% of their peaks.

Partial ClearingExpect more building permits in most markets this year, but the gains will be far from historic.

You may have seen the national housing forecasts for this year, but what are the prospects where you live? We asked Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI), a sister company of ProSales, to help answer that question by forecasting how many building permits HWMI expects will be issued in 2010 in the 12 biggest markets in each of four census regions. HWMI predicts the changes will range from a 255% rise in Detroit to a 28% drop in Salt Lake City. The average is a 33% increase from 2009. But before you break out the champagne, note the bottom number in each box. That shows the 2010 forecast number as a percentage of the seasonally adjusted annual version of that market’s best month since 1979. For instance, Atlanta’s 13,189 is just 7.4% of the annual rate for its best single month in the past 30 years. In just one case does the growth even rank in the top half. Can’t � nd your market? Visit www.prosalesmagazine.com/2010forecast for forecasts in the top 25 markets in each of the four regions.

Midwest Chicago ranks fourth nationally in the number of building permits forecast for 2010, and its 76% growth is among the country’s best. But per-

centage changes can be deceiving; Detroit’s triple-digit rise follows some horrible years, while Omaha won’t grow as much

in part because it didn’t fall as far. Outside the top 12, look out for No. 21 Manhattan, Kan.

It’s expected to top 1,000 permits in 2010. That’s 77% of its best perfor-

mance since 1979.

Indianapolis /Carmel

6,680 / 37%17.5%

Columbus6,443 / 26%

18.7%

Detroit /Warren/Livonia

4,896 / 255%13.8%

Cleveland/Elyria /Mentor

2,590 / 29%11.3%

Omaha/Council Bluffs3,079 / 17%

20.9%

Houston/Sugar Land/

Baytown31,965 / 13%

42.6%

Tampa/St. Petersburg/

Clearwater6,501 / 68%

6.5%

San Antonio8,139 / 27%

30.3%

Dallas/Forth Worth/

Arlington25,094 / 13%

23.9%

Denver/Aurora/Broomfi eld6,782 / 49%

16.2%

Sacramento/Arden-Arcade/

Roseville4,551 / 50%

7.8%

San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont

8,114 / 46%16.5%

San Diego/Carlsbad/

San Marcos5,011 / 79%

10.9%

Portland/Vancouver/Beaverton

11,330 / 39%34.2%

Riverside/San Bernardino/

Ontario5,719 / 18%

6.1%

Phoenix /Mesa/

Scottsdale12,231 / 23%

7.9%

Albuquerque2,977 / 60%

25.0%

Salt Lake City2,337 / -28%

7.9%

Seattle/ Tacoma/Bellevue

6,540 / -11%4.6%

Los Angeles/Long Beach/Santa Ana

14,512 / 89%11.2%

Las Vegas/Paradise6,545 / 17%

9.7%

Miami /Fort Lauderdale/Pompano Beach

9,446 / 244%8.4%

Washington/Arlington/Alexandria

12,805 / -3%3.5%

Philadelphia /Camden/

Wilmington7,090 / 23%

6.5%

Atlanta/Sandy Springs /

Marietta13,189 / 53%

7.4%

Nashville / Davidson/Murfreesboro/ Franklin

6,672 / 62%21.1%

Austin/Round Rock10,019 / 8%

31.0%

Louisville/Jefferson County

3,005 / 24%11.8%

Charlotte/Gastonia /Concord

6,611 / 13%11.5%

Orlando/Kissimmee

6,155 / 133%7.4%

Minneapolis/St. Paul /

Bloomington7,178 / 16%

9.6%

DATA SOURCE: HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Market LocationTotal permits 2010 (estimated) / Percent change from 20092010 forecast as percentage of best month (converted to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate) since 1979

Map Legend

18.7%18.7%

Cincinnati/Middletown3,230 / 61%

8.1%

St. Louis8,125 / 33%

17.7%

Kansas City4,552 / 69%

11.1%

Springfi eld2,029 / 70%

32.6%

Chicago/Naperville /

Joliet21,041 / 76%

18.2%

Albany/Schenectady/

Troy1,663 / 91%

14.3%

Allentown/Bethlehem/

Easton1,332 / 26%

8.6%11.3%

Pittsburgh1,944 / 10%

6.0%

Rochester1,379 / 47%

7.2%

Harrisburg /Carlisle

2.420 / -5%51.4%

Buffalo/Niagara Falls1,380 / 67%

13.5%

Boston/Cambridge/

Quincy2,981 / -17%

4.5%

Portland/South Portland/

Biddeford1,412 / -21%

8.7%

New York/Northern New Jersey/

Long Island23,163 / 42%

13.5%

14.3%14.3%

Hartford/West Hartford/East Hartford1,282 / 39%

7.2%

4.5%4.5%

Providence/New Bedford/

Fall River1,173 / -13%

3.8%

Worcester1,441 / 67%

11.0%