Budget Presentation

2/20/2014

Cyclical Fluctuations

• 2009-10 may not be an appropriate benchmark, but…• FTES peaked in 2009-10 at 6084, 27% decline since then.

• Economic recovery so far: 7% that 27% enrollment loss since peak enrollments.

Data from Chanellor’s Datamart, VP Lindsey

3

2012-13 vs. 2007-8

• Less revenue: FTES down by 9%.

• Statewide, For-Credit FTES fell by 4%.

• For CR, 2013-2014 FTES fell by another 5.7%.

• Overall FTES fall since 2007-8: 14.2%

Smaller graduating cohorts: 14% smaller since 2007-2008.

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Graduating Cohorts (10 year avg, 2004-05 =100)

Data from California Dept. of Finance, Demographic Research Unit

Personnel per FTES has risenComparing 2012-13 with 2007-8

• FT Faculty per FTES is up 10%

• PT Faculty per FTES is up 13%

• Admin per FTES is up 27%

• Classified per FTES is up 3%

Where are we right now

• Projected $1,400,000 deficit for 2014-15 must be closed to keep reserves at 5.6%• $580,000 plugged with non-human expenses and one-time

money.• Remaining $820,000 deficit must be plugged from

personnel expenses. (5.2% of District compensation.)

Where can we go?• Local graduating cohorts will continue to shrink another

7.5% over next 5 years.• Student success task force funding model?• Persistence rates haven’t fallen, but increasing persistence

may be a partial solution.• Genuinely new students?• Concurrent enrollment ‘head start on college’ for students

who want out-of-area 4-year residential experience.• Online students from demographically strong southern

California.