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Budget Highlights 2017

LOLC Securities Limited (An LOLC Group Company)

Special Report 11 November 2016

1

Budget Summary

Budget 2017 broadly continues the direction of budget 2016 with more focus on stabilizing the fiscal sector of the economy. It carries more pragmatic approach with less ad hock and ambitious proposals, creating more stable achievable targets. Budget broadly spell out government’s development agenda with focus on sustainable soft development of the economy.

Budget 2017 targets a fiscal deficit of 4.6% of the GDP and has broaden the tax base to increase revenue collection in hitting the deficit target. There is ambitious revenue target to achieve 15.5% of GDP (compared to 13.4% in 2016) and targets to have Revenue surplus (covering current expenditure by revenue).

There is increase of 27% on revenue collection and correspondingly expenditure is expected to increase 17%. 43% of the fiscal deficit of LKR 625 billion will be financed by foreign borrowings, a notable decrease compared to 2016 percentage of 59%.

Government targets fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP by 2020. 2

“ Fiscal tightening, but with less impact to development agenda”

Budget Summary cont’d

In achieving 27% increase in revenue the budget has broaden the tax base and in particularly increased the corporate tax base affecting corporates. Tax exemptions are broadly removed and most of the companies will fall under 28% tax bracket.

Motor sector and finance companies with high motor vehicle lending business will be negatively impacted with lowering of LTV and increase of duties of vehicles. There will be continuous drive for infrastructure development providing opportunities for construction sector.

There are several capital market development initiatives set out in the budget to transform the capital market space of the country. But removal of income tax exemptions on yields of unit trusts and debentures can affect respective instruments. Economy will be opened up for foreign investments buttressing the hub concept. In summary, budget sets out direction for governments development strategy, but will also have a close check on stable fiscal policy.

3

“ Higher tax regime. Several development initiatives for capital markets“

Budget Highlights 2017

Outline

Fiscal impact Pg.05

Stock market impact Pg.14

Sector impact Pg.17

Counter impact Pg.23

Appendix Pg.27

4

5

Part 01Fiscal impact

Budget Highlights 2017 6

Revenue Collection

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Rev

enu

e (B

n)

Revenue & Revenue to GDP (%)

Revenue (Bn) Revenue to GDP %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tax Revenue breakdown

IncomeTax Taxes on Goods & Services Taxes on International Trade

Sources: CBSL, Ministry of Finance

Significant growth in revenue collection.

Targets to rapidly turn around falling income tax revenue (% of GDP) to have increased contribution from direct taxes.

42%

27%

17%

31%

Income Tax Taxes on Goods andServices

Taxes on ExternalTrade

Non Tax Revenue

YOY Growth of Revenue


Higher corporate tax and WHT drive the revenue targets

Source : Ministry of Finance

LKR Mn

140000


Key Revenue Proposals

Corporate Tax RevisionsCorporate tax is structure is revised to broaden the sectors to be included in 28% tax bracket. Accordingly sectors such as healthcare, tourism will be subjected higher corporate tax. Corporate income tax will be 3 tier structure.a) 14% - SMEs, Export Companies, Agriculture & Educationb) 40% - Betting & Gaming, Liquor, & Tobaccoc) 28% - For all other sectorsIncome Tax exemptions on income from certain dividends and interest on listed debentures, dividend received from unit trusts and mutual funds will be removed. Exemptions on interest on saving accounts up to Rs 5,000 per month also will be removed.

Revisions of Withholding Taxa) WHT on interest income will be increased to 5% from 2.5%. b) WHT exemption on savings account with less than Rs. 60,000 interest per annum

will be removed. WHT will be re-introduced on specified fees where the payment exceeds Rs. 50,000 per month.

Excise Duty Revisions on motor vehicles – discussed in Sector Impact. Pg.20

Financial Transaction Levy (FTL) – A new levy Rs. 5 per Rs.10,000 on the total cash transactions by banks and other financial institutions.

Fiscal tightening by simplifying tax structure by removing exemptions and higher increase of direct taxes


Expenditure

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exp

end

itu

re t

o G

DP

%

Expenditure & Expenditure to GDP

Expenditure (Mn) Expenditure to GDP

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Expenditure

Recurrent Expenditure % GDP Capital Expenditure % GDP

Sources:CBSL, Ministry of Finance

5%

19%

13%10%

23%

47%

Salaries andWages

Other Goodsand Services

Interest Subsidies Education andHealth

Infrastructure

YOY Growth of Expenditure Higher growth (42%)

in capital expenditure, with higher allocation for infrastructure. Infrastructure allocation is 47% more than 2016.

Moderate growth of 10% for recurrent expenditure for 2017.


Digitalizing and financial sector growth accounts for higher allocations

Source : Ministry of Finance

13950


Key Expenditure Proposals

Digitalizing the EconomyThere is significant thrust continued from previous budget on digitalizing the economy allocating LKR 15 billion for few initiatives. There will be National Digital Identity, National Payment Platform, National Data Center, etc moving economy to more efficient information age.

Establishing EXIM BankContinuing from last budget, EXIM bank will be set up in next year to support trade. Initial capital requirement for the bank would be LKR 25 billion with collaboration of government and industry, and government has allocated LKR 10 billion.

Establishing Financial Asset Management Agency (FAMA) FAMA is to set up to assist failing finance companies, restructuring distressed entities. It is propose to allocate the initial capital of Rs. 10million as equity and also to issue a Treasury bond to the value of Rs. 10 billion with a tenor of 7 years to set up the operation.

ICT development of school systemIt is proposed to free tabs to AL teachers and students, with allocation of LKR 5 billion, rent computers for school (allocation – LKR 5 Bn) and other infrastructure development.

There is continued focus on soft development of the economy with focus on digitalization and education.

Further importance is given for growth of finance industry.


Deficit

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%LKR Bn Reciepts and Expenditure Variation

Total Revenue and Grants Total Expenditure

Budget Surplus(+) /Deficit(-) Budget Deficit (% of GDP)


Focus is to bring down the budget deficit, targeting 3% of GDP by 2020. Higher revenue collection drives the targets and expect to have revenue surplus in 2017.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Revenue & Budget deficit

Revenue Deficit % GDP Budget Deficit % GDP


Deficit Financing


45%

39%

-10%

4%

Budget Deficit Financing Breakdown 2016

Net Foreign Financing

Non-Banking Borrowings

Foreign Investments in T-Bill and T-Bonds

Bank Borrowings

43%

42%

10%5%

Budget Deficit Financing Breakdown 2017

There is a shift away from foreign financing compared to 2016.

This may put upward pressure on interest rates.

88

315370

395272

428

276460

275353

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Budget Financing Variation (LKR Bn)

Net Foreign Financing Total Domestic Financing

14

Part 02Stock market impact


Several policies to transform the capital markets

Introduction of a new Securities and Exchange Act in Q1 2017.

Introduction of Demutualization Bill Q1 2017, converting CSE into a company

with shares being held by shareholders.

Implementation of the Securitizations Act during 2017 facilitating diversified

investment opportunities.

A separate board for the listing of SMEs with less stringent rules.

Encourage listing of companies on the stock exchange. Tax incentives which are

already given to encourage listings will be continued. The new firms that will list

on the stock exchange in 2017/18 will be entitled to a grant of an amount equal

to 25% of the income tax paid for the last year prior to listing.

Encourage foreign companies to be listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange.

Budget 2017 continues positive support for capital markets from Budget 2016.


But certain exemptions removed affecting respective instruments

Income tax exemption on interest of listed debentures is removedThis will have significant negative impact on the listed corporate debt market, especially on institutional investments. Debentures enjoyed significant influx of institutional investments on the tax benefits in recent past, which may not continue in the future with removal of income tax benefit.

Income tax exemption on dividends of unit trusts is removedUnit trusts will also have significant negative impact on removal of tax exemptions.

Budget has taken a U-turn on Debentures and Unit Trusts on income tax exemptions, which has created demand for both instruments in recent times.

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (YTD)

Yo

Y g

row

th

LK

R B

n

Since Budget 2013 there has been significant increase in capital raised through debentures in tax benefits

Total issued amount of listed debentures YoY growth

17

Part 03Sector impact

Budget Impact 2017 18

Non Banking Finance and Banking Sector

Reduction of Loan to Value (LTV) from 70% toa) 25% for Three Wheelersb) 50% for Motor cars and vansThis can have significant impact on advances growth of finance companies which have strong business exposure the motor vehicles.LTV has been increased for Commercial Vehicles to 90% creating opportunity in that segment.

Increase in duties of motor vehicles, again impacting lending business of NBFIs.

Removal of restrictions on foreign currency borrowings for NBFIs from previous limit of 35% of the total assets. (provided currency risk is hedged)

Removal of income tax exemption on debentures’ interest income creates more level playing field with instruments such as Fixed Deposits, creating more opportunities for NBFI’s to enhance its deposit base.

Licensed Commercial Banks (LCBs) minimum capital requirement has increased to LKR 20 billion. Licensed Specialized Banks (LSB) minimum capital requirement has increased to LKR 7.5 billion.

LCBs with lower capital base PABC and ABL will have to increase the capital base

Amalgamate the HDFC Bank and State Mortgage and Investment Bank (SMIB) and infuse LKR 7.5 billion to meet above capital requirement

Lending business will be affected with lowering LTVs for NBFI.

Long term view of banking sector to increase capital requirement to be competitive

Budget Impact 2017 19

Construction, Plantation and Telecommunication

Budget has provided several proposals for increased infrastructure including highways, roads, railways buildings etc, creating opportunities in the construction sector.

Removal of the Cess of 25% which is applicable on pre-fabricated structures

Regional Plantation Companies’ land ownership will be limited to 5,000 acres.It is not what is the enforceability in the budget plantations, but it can have impact on almost all the plantation companies listed in CSE.

It is allowed to import and re-export on value addition for CTC tea.This can have negative impact for local tea manufacturers, as it may affect the Ceylon tea brand as well as the auction prices.

Telecommunication Levy on internet services will be increased to 25 percent parwith the other Telecommunication services.

Form a company to own all the telecom towers on PPP basis to reduce industry costs with potential synergies.

Expenditure on infrastructure is increased by 47% to Rs 567Bn. Construction sector will have positive impact. But bottom line will be impacted on higher corporate tax.

Tea industry may get affected on allowing of import and export of CTC tea.

Telecommunications to have negative impact on levy on internet services


Motor Sector

Motor sector will have significant negative impact on LTV reduction except for companies involved commercial vehicles which have LTV of 90%.

Negative for the industryPositive – SMOT, ASHO

Excise duty revision raising LKR 14 billion. Excise duties are generally increased across board except for Electric vehicles with power less than 100kw and some of high engine capacity vehicles.

Economic Service Charge (ESC) will be charged on motor vehicles.Motor sector to have negative impact from the budget


Tourism, Poultry and Liquor

By 2018 the minimum room rate regime will be terminated for city hotels.This will have mixed impact to the industry. One way it can help the formal sector to be competitive and attracting tourists offering better services than informal sector, which in turn could detriment informal sector having positive impact as a whole to the city hotels. On other way price competition can creep into the industry. Hotels will also be brought under normal corporate tax bracket of 28%

increasing tax for the sector.

For Poultry sector maximum retail price (MRP) is relaxed.

Duty on imported ethanol will be upwardly revised. Introduction of Excise Duty of Rs. 25 per liter for imported non-potable liquor Excise duty on importing of beer cans - <350ml: Rs 10/can, >350ml: Rs 15/canTaxes on imports will benefit the local manufacturers Introduce Excise Duty on the quantum of raw materials used for producing

ethanol – negative impact

City hotels to have mixed impact on removal of floor rate. Industry in general will be affected by increased corporate tax.

Poultry sector to enjoy better margin on relaxing of MRP

Liquor sector have positive impact from the budget on import duty imposition.


Real Estate

New Capital Gain tax of 10% on the gain realized from disposal ofimmovable properties. This will affect the attractiveness of real estate investments, affecting real estate companies. The mechanics of the tax imposition is not yet clear on the budget, but generally it will have negative impact.

Foreigners will be allowed to borrow from local bank up to 40% to acquire condominiums. (debt servicing will be in foreign currency.

Ownership restrictions for foreigners to own lower floors of condominiums will be removed.

Relaxation of investment restrictions in condominium market can create demand from foreigners benefitting real estate companies

Positive impact for condominium development companies.

Condominiums to have more demand from foreign investors.

But capital gain tax can dampen the investment attractiveness

23

Part 04Counter impact


Budget impact for listed counters

Budget proposal Countersaffected

Overall Impact

• Reduction of LTV ratio of 3-Whleers, Cars and Vans (Negative)

• Removal of restrictions on foreign currency borrowings for NBFIs (Positive)Listed NBFIs

Negative

• Increase in LTV ratio of commercial vehicles (Positive) ASHOSMOT

Positive

• Increasing minimum capital requirement of LCBs and LSBs PABCABL

Negative

• Corporate income tax of construction sector increase to 28% from 12% (Negative)• Removal of 25% CESS on import of pre-fabricated structures (Positive)• Introduction of Payment Guarantee Security Act (Positive)

AELKAPIDOCK

Negative

• Plantation Companies’ land ownership to be limited to 5,000 acres (Negative)• Import Export control fee of 1% in CIF price of Tea to be abolished (Positive)

Plantationcompanies with large acreage

Negative

• Telecommunication levy to be increased to 25% (Negative)• SIM Card activation levy to be introduced (Negative)• Increase of Annual Spectrum License Fee (Negative)• Establishing a company for owning and managing Telco Towers (Positive)

DIALSLT

Negative




Overall Impact

• Minimum room rates of hotels to be abolished by 2018 (Mixed)• Interest subsidy on refurbishment expenditure for hotels (Positive)• 0.5% Tourism Development Levy on hotels with annual revenue less than LKR 12

Mn (Positive) • Corporate income tax of hotels sector increase to 28% from 12% (Negative)

AHPLGHLLJKHTALRENUSERVTRAN

Negative

• 5% CESS on ethanol imports (Negative)• Reduction of evaporation allowance of ethanol from 1.5% to 0.15% (Negative)• Increase excise duty of importing raw materials used for manufacturing ethanol

(Negative)• Introduction of an excise duty of Rs.25/liter for imported non-portable liquor

(Positive)

DIST Mixed

• Excise duty on imported beer cans LION Positive

• Removal of conditions applicable for foreigners on ownership of ground floor condominiums

• Foreigners eligibility to buy condominiums with a loan of up to 40% of the value

OSEAJKH

Positive




Overall Impact

• Increase in income tax of private healthcare providers from 12% to 28% All listed healthcare counters

Negative

• Reduction of 12.5 kg LP Gas cylinder MRP by Rs.25 LGL Negative

• Apparel sector to be permitted to invest outside Sri Lanka• Investment relief to businesses that will invest in backward integration in apparel

industry

TJLMGT

Positive

• Exporters to be granted a income tax rebate for 15% or more foreign currency earnings for 2016/17 compared to 2015/16

Listed exporters

Positive

• Relaxation of Poultry sector maximum retail price (MRP) GRANTAFLBFL

Positive

• Allocation of LKR 7500 Mn for capital infusion and amalgamation of HDFC and SMIB (Positive)

• Discontinuation of provision of loans against members’ EPF (Negative)

HDFC Mixed

• Permission to move Less than Container Load (LCL) imports to inside and outside the port of Colombo

JKH Positive

• Corporate income tax increase of funds, dividends, T-Bills and T-bonds to 14% from 10%

Financialsector

Negative

27

Appendix


AppendixRs. Billion

2016 2017 %

Total Revenue and Grants 1,658 2,098 26.54%

Total Revenue 1,648 2,088 26.70%

Tax Revenue 1,432 1,821 27.16%

Income Tax 236 335 41.95%

Taxes on Goods and Services 854 1,086 27.17%

Taxes on External Trade 342 400 16.96%Non Tax Revenue 144 189 31.25%

Provincial Councils Tax Sharing and Devolved 72 78 8.33%

Grants 10 10 0.00%

Total Expenditure 2,328 2,723 16.97%

Recurrent 1,842 2,024 9.88%

Salaries and Wages including Provincial Councils 645 675 4.65%

Other Goods and Services including Provincial Councils 170 202 18.82%

Other Goods and Services including Provincial Councils 603 680 12.77%

Subsidies and Transfers 424 467 10.14%

Public Investment 500 708 41.60%

Education and Health 115 141 22.61%

Infrastructure 385 567 47.27%

Other -14 -9 -35.71%

Revenue Surplus (+)/Deficit(-) -194 64 -

Primary Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) -67 55 -

Budget Surplus (+)/Deficit(-) -670 -625 -6.72%

Total Financing 670 625 -6.72%

Total Foreign Financing 395 272 -31.14%

Foreign Borrowings-Gross 540 450 -16.67%

Project and Programme Loans 220 230 4.55%

Foreign Commercial 320 220 -31.25%

Debt Repayment -145 -178 22.76%

Total Domestic Financing 275 353 28.36%

Non-Bank Borrowings 341 261 -23.46%

Foreign Investments in T-Bills and T-Bonds -100 60 -160.00%

Bank Borrowings 34 32 -5.88%

Revenue and Grants/GDP (%) 14.5 15.5 6.90%

Total Revenue/GDP (%) 13.4 15.5 15.67%

Tax Revenue/GDP (%) 11.6 13.5 16.38%

Total Expenditure/GDP (%) 18.9 20.2 6.88%

Recurrent Expenditure/GDP (%) 15 15 0.00%

Public Investment/GDP (%) 4.1 5.2 26.83%

Revenue Surplus (+)/Deficit (-)/GDP (%) -1.6 0.5 -131.25%

Primary Surplus (+)/Deficit (-)/GDP (%) -0.5 0.4 -180.00%

Budget Surplus (+)/Deficit (-)/GDP (%) -5.4 -4.6 -14.81%


Appendix

Proposals LKR Mn.

1. Corporate Tax revisions 32,000

2. Revisions of Withholding Tax 26,000

3. PAYE Tax revisions 2,500

4. Telecommunication Levy revisions 5,000

5. SIM Activation Levy 200

6. Excise Duty revisions on motor vehicles 14,000

7. ESC on imported motor vehicles 500

8. Revision of Embarkation Levy 4,500

9. Financial Transaction Levy on transactions of banks and financial institutions 8,000

10. Revision of allowable evaporation for spirits 600

11. Excise duty revisions on Ethanol 600

12. Carbon Tax on motor vehicles 5,000

13. Court Fee for filing a case 4,000

14. NBT revisions 7,500

15. Excise duty on Non-potable alcohol 3,500

16. Capital Gain Tax 5,000

17. Transferring public institutions' unutilized accumulated funds 20,000

Total 140,000


Appendix

Sector/Area Budget Proposal Responsible Government Institution Allocation LKR Mn

Education Sector

Infrastructure development including provision of laboratory equipment and furniture

Ministry of Education 5,000

Free tabs to AL teachers and students Ministry of Education 5,000

Provision to rent a maximum of 50 computers per school Ministry of Education 5,000

Rs.200,000 health insurance for students Ministry of Education 2,700

Basic facilities such as electricity, water and sanitation facilities to all schools

Ministry of Education 2,000

Financial and Banking Sector

Payments to Golden Key depositorsMinistry of National Policies and Economic Affairs/

Central Bank of Sri Lanka3,000

Establish Financial Asset Management Agency (FAMA) to revitalize the failed non-bank finance companies

FAMA – Ministry of Finance 10,010

Infusion of capital for the Housing Bank Ministry of Public Enterprise Development 7,500

Housing

Provide 50% interest subsidy loan scheme up to Rs.200,000 for 100,000 houses

Ministry of Finance 1,000

Expedite the construction of 50,000 houses in Northern and Eastern Provnces

Ministry of Housing and Construction 5,000

Government Departments (Decentralization)

Development of 1,000 Km of road length in rural areas Ministry of Local Government and Provincial Councils 4,500

Restoration, rehabilitation and de-silting of 1,500 small tanks Ministry of Agriculture 3,000

Development of comprehensive plan to upgrade cities Ministry of City Planning and Water Supply 3,000

Southern Development Ministry of Law & Order and Southern Development 1,000

“Siri Sara Pivisuma” Programme in Trincomalee district Presidential Secretariat 1,000

Vertical Building for mixed development including office space, recreational facilities, and

Ministry of Local Government and Provincial Councils 1,000

Fishery IndustryImprove fishery villages in 10 coastal districts includiing Hambantota,

Jaffna and BatticaloaMinistry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources 1,200

Irrigation and Mahaweli Development

Yan Oya ProjectMinistry of Irrigation and Water Resources

Management1,000


Appendix

Health CareEstablish Specialized Pediatric Care Complexes in Karapitiya, Ampara

and Jaffna HospitalsMinistry of Health and Indigenous Medicine 1,000

Exports

Establish EXIM Bank of Sri Lanka Ministry of National Policies and Economic Affairs 10,000

Global Marketing Campaign to boost the exports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Ministry of Tourism Development and Christian Affairs 1,000

Provide land, electricity and water facilities to private free trade zones along the expressway corridors

Ministry of Development Strategies and International Trade

1,000

TourismConstruct a MICE convention Centre in Colombo with a seating capacity of 5,000

Ministry of Tourism Development and Christian Affairs 1,000

Connectivity and MobilityDouble tracking of the railway line in Polgahawela - Kurunegala section

and the Aluthgama - Galle sectionMinistry of Transport and Civil Aviation 1,000

War against Poverty and Social Welfare Network

Grant pensions to differently abled soldiers Ministry of Defence 3,500

Contributory Pension Fund Ministry of Public Administration 1,000

Empowerment of Youth and Women

Vocational training programme under National Youth Services Council and Youth Corp

Ministry of National Policies and Economic Affairs 4,000

Each MP to be provided Rs.1 million per one Grama Niladari division (GN) to be given to selected youth interest free loans

Ministry National Policies and Economic Affairs 7,000

Public Sector Service Establish 1,000 “Sewa Piyasa” units Ministry of Public Administration and Management 1,500

National Digital Identity

National Digital Identity

Ministry of Telecommunication and Digital Infrastructure/ Information Communication Technology Agency

15,000

National Payment Platform

Establish National Data Center

Toll charging system to control traffic

Introduce Cryptography using Blockchain Technology

Cost of Living Support Expand Lak Sathosa and Osu Sala franchise shops Ministry of Industry and Commerce 1,000

Environment

Providing Police Department with modern equipment for better enforcement

Ministry of Law and Order 5,000

Interest subsidy to households with monthly electricity bill over Rs.2,000 to convert in to solar energy

Ministry of Power and Renewable Energy 1,500

Others - - 23,495

Total 139,905


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