bt monthly markets chart pack – september 2008 an overview of movements in global financial...
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BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – September 2008
An overview of movements in global financial markets
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Global share markets tumble in September...
Global share markets were hit hard in September as attempts by the US government to bail out Wall Street failed to offset earlier losses. In the US, the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed the month 9.2% lower while stocks in Europe (-9.7%), the UK (-13%) and Japan (-13.9%) were also down.
The Australian share market was not immune to the chaos that affected other global share markets during September, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing the month 9.8% lower. But it wasn’t just weaker financial stocks that helped drag the local market lower. Weaker commodity prices also contributed to the fall.
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Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$.Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI
Impact of major market events on global shares since 1986
…but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
3,200
3,700
4,200
4,700
5,200
5,700
6,200
Sep-86 Sep-88 Sep-90 Sep-92 Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08
Jan 91Gulf War
Feb 94Bond Market Crash
Aug 97Asian Currency Crisis
Jul 98Russian Bond Crisis
Jul 01Tech Wreck
Sep 01Attack on Twin Towers
Jun 07US Sub-prime Crisis
Oct 87Wall Streetcrash
Nov 89Fall of the Berlin Wall Mar 03
Troops enter Iraq
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Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data
S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 30 September 2008
The Australian share market closed 9.8% lower in September
30,000
31,500
33,000
34,500
36,000
37,500
39,000
40,500
42,000
43,500
30/09/2007 30/11/2007 30/01/2008 30/03/2008 30/05/2008 30/07/2008 30/09/2008
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Key Australian economic news – September
Australia’s economy grew by 0.3% in the June quarter, in line with expectations. Growth on a year-on-year basis was 2.7%.
Our trade deficit was much worse than the market had anticipated in July, coming in at $717 million. The market had actually been expecting a $108 million surplus.
Retail trade figures were positive in July, up 1.4% for the month to be 3.5% higher year-on-year.
Housing finance in July was up 0.6%, though perhaps not surprisingly it remains 22.1% lower for the year. The monthly gain was the first in five months.
ANZ Bank’s monthly survey of job advertisements showed a 4% drop in newspaper ads in August, the largest monthly decline since February 2001 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
Source: BT Financial Group
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The Australian dollar fell again in September
The Australian dollar (A$) continued its slide against the US dollar in September, thanks mainly to expectations of slower growth ahead and the impact that this will have on commodity prices. However, with commodity prices expected to stay relatively high over the long-term, the trend in the A$ is likely to remain up.
At the end of September:
A$1 bought US$0.7933 -7.5%
€0.5625 -3.9%
¥93.34 -9.9%
Source: BT Financial Group
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Currency markets – A$ per US dollar
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 September 2008.
0.6000
0.6500
0.7000
0.7500
0.8000
0.8500
0.9000
0.9500
1.0000
Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08
The Australian dollar versus the US dollar…
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Currency markets – A$ per Euro
the Euro…
0.5600
0.5700
0.5800
0.5900
0.6000
0.6100
0.6200
0.6300
0.6400
0.6500
Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 September 2008.
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and the Yen
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08
Currency markets – A$ per Yen
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 September 2008.
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Official world interest rate movements – September
In Australia, the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate by 1.00% (to 6.00%) at its early October meeting. Elsewhere (in September), the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve all left their rates on hold.
Current rate Last movedDirection of last move
Australia 6.00% Oct 2008
US 2.00% Apr 2008
Europe (ECB) 4.25% Jul 2008
Japan 0.50% Feb 2007
United Kingdom 5.00% Apr 2008
Source: BT Financial Group
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Source: BT Financial Group
30 September 2008
Global share market returns
1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa)
Global
S&P 500 Index (US) -23.71% -1.77% 3.18%
Nasdaq (US Tech.) -22.92% -1.09% 3.11%
Nikkei 225 (Japan) -32.92% -6.04% 1.96%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -33.62% 5.30% 9.92%
DAX (Germany) -25.83% 4.95% 12.35%
CAC (France) -29.46% -4.30% 5.16%
FTSE 100 (UK) -24.19% -3.63% 3.68%
Australia
S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. -26.76% 3.99% 12.39%
S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries -34.51% 1.48% 10.37%
S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. -41.79% -4.25% 5.76%
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Short-term asset class performance
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in A$
1-year rolling returns to 30 September 2008 (%) Best performing asset class for the year
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993
Australian cash
7.65 6.54 5.87 5.68 5.49 4.89 4.63 5.81 5.92 4.95 5.12 6.17 7.73 7.69 5.00 5.67
Australian bonds
8.37 3.47 4.78 5.75 5.23 5.51 5.74 10.68 5.90 1.36 9.32 14.60 12.19 16.53 -4.24 16.52
Australian property
-41.79 20.13 25.55 16.76 29.10 6.24 11.93 16.25 11.12 0.78 14.58 24.73 12.61 11.57 -2.42 25.66
Australian shares
-27.08 32.70 16.01 31.73 20.67 11.78 1.24 -4.36 21.33 16.74 -3.64 26.36 10.66 10.47 6.39 34.60
International bonds
21.17 -8.34 4.61 -2.28 -0.02 -8.16 0.32 17.06 15.79 -8.81 36.43 11.90 -0.61 13.90 -11.12 20.61
International shares
-16.68
1.37 16.91 12.37 9.21 0.51 -26.99 -21.31 30.46 17.58 22.77 35.84 8.49 12.22 -6.28 32.89
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Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in A$
1-year returns to 30 September 2008 (%)
Short-term asset class performance (cont’d)
-16.7
21.2
-27.1
-41.8
8.4
1.4
-8.3
32.7
20.1
3.5
30 September 2007
30 September 2008
Australian bonds
Listed property
Australian shares
Global bonds
Global shares
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Long-term asset class performance
Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in A$
30 September 2008
Australian bonds
Listed property
Australian shares
Cash
Global shares
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Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 30 September 2008.
Oil prices – US$ per barrel
Oil prices fell again in September as a slowing global economy continued to dampen demand
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
$120
$135
$150
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
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Summary
The underlying strength of the Australian economy, relative to its global counterparts, looks set to continue in the near-term, though admittedly we are now beginning to feel the knock-on effects of the slowdown that’s impacted countries like the US and the UK.
The RBA’s decision to lower the official cash rate again in October should help to bring inflation under control, though at the moment it continues to sit well outside the Bank’s 2-3% comfort zone. If our economy continues to slow as expected, then there’s a chance we could yet see another rate cut by year-end.
The Australian dollar (A$) looks set to remain at high levels over the long-term, supported in part by relatively high commodity prices. However, if interest rates were to continue to fall, then the A$ would lose further ground against the US dollar.
Gains in global share markets, including here in Australia, are likely to remain under pressure in the near-term, particularly as global growth continues to slow down.
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